Pitchers you should pick up, others you should avoid

Every year on the Memorial Day weekend, I study which pitchers are likely to improve their results based on two metrics that show how well they have been pitching. At the same time, I come up with a list of pitchers whose performance is likely to fall off during the final two-thirds of the season.
Some of the pithcers on the way up are pretty obvious. Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber weren't winning early. But they are Cy Young Award winners. And the metrics I use -- opponents' batting average, or Hittability, and strikeout:walk ratio, or Strikeability -- showed that both were pitching well during April and May.
In the study, I included the 109 pitchers who at that point were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title (1 inning per team game). I compared their Hittability and Strikeability ratings with their standing in strikeouts and wins. Pitchers ranking high in combined Hittability and Strikeability but low in the counting stats are likely to be rewarded with better results going forward.
Others on the good list are Jimmy Nelson, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, Chase Anderson and Michael Wacha.
If any of those pitchers are a product of a small sample size or luck, rather than talent, I'd suggest Nelson, Anderson and possibly Sanchez. The others all have a track record.
There are just two pitchers I would expect to fall this season. Usually, there are seven or eight pitchers, sometimes even more on the bad list. This year's players due for a fall are Mark Buehrle and Mike Fiers.  Buehrle was easy to see coming. In recent years, he has started fast and finished poorly. I remember telling someone it was OK to draft him, but he should be traded by midseason or the first sign that he was faltering.
In my rankings, I divide players into four groups as equal as possible, based on where they stand in each category. Buehrle began the year as one of the majors' biggest winners, even though he ranked in the bottom quarter in both Hittability and Strikeability. That made him not only an obvious candidate to fade, but also one of nine pitchers who should be replaced in the rotation as soon as someone better could be found.
There are seven pitchers in the top one-fourth in both Hittability and Strikeability. They are also good bets for success between now and October: Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer (another Cy Young Award winner), Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi, Felix Hernandez (Cy!) and Zack Greinke. The biggest surprises on that list are Hammel and Odorizzi, who is one of the reasons why the Rays still are contending in the American League East.
They are players you should seek to acquire in your fantasy leagues, if you don't already have them.
Pitchers to avoid or to dump, in addition to Buehrle, are Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Tim Hudson, Kyle Kendrick, Jordan Lyles, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman and Kyle Lobstein.
Hellickson has been at the top of the Hittability and Strikeability lists in years past. I'd suggest that he and Tillman might have previously undisclosed injuries. Hudson, Guthrie and Buehrle may simply be at the end of the line.
I'll have more posts on my Hittability/Strikeability ratings, and how they can be used to predict future performance.

Wainwright's No. 1, but look who's No. 10 -- for now

Here you'll find my annual in-season suggestions of pitchers to keep and drop.
On the Memorial Day weekend, I measure two skills -- Strikeability, based on strikeout:walk ratio, and Hittability, based on opponents' batting average.
Dividing starting pitchers into four groups, top to bottom, in each category leads to numerical ratings ranging from 2 (for those in the top quarter in both K/W and BA) to 8 (for those in the bottom quarter of each).
The next step is to compare those ratings with who's doing well in the basic starting pitching fantasy categories -- Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
We've been through nearly two months of the season. In most cases, that's enough to gauge who will do well during the final four months. I have several years of success with this method.
A pitcher doing better in the Strikeability/Hittability ratings than in the fantasy stats is likely to be a good bet to improve in the fantasy measures. In addition, a pitcher struggling in those measures isn't someone you'll want to keep.
The pitchers ranked 2 have been the best in the majors in April and May, and should be good going forward. They're RHPs Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Tim Hudson and Masahiro Tanaka.
At the other end are the pitchers ranked 8. They might not even belong as starters in the majors, let alone on your fantasy team. The seven are RHPs Justin Masterson, Zach Wheeler and Kevin Correia, and LHPs John Danks, Franklin Morales, Robbie Ross (whom the Rangers dropped from their rotation before Memorial Day) and Eric Stults.
What you really want to know from this information is which pitchers are sleepers, the ones who have pitched better than their early results indicate. Also, which pitchers who have had statistical success are due for a fall.
Here are the top 10 lists for sleepers and slumpers, or keepers and dumpers if you prefer, with the statistical categories where you might expect improvement.
Sleepers/keepers: (Rated 2) 1. Tim Hudson (fourth quartile, SO); (Rated 3) 2. Michael Leake (fourth quartile, W and SO); 3. Rick Porcello (fourth quartile, SO); 4. Ian Kennedy (third quartile, ERA and W); 5. Scott Kazmir (third quartile, SO); 6. Michael Wacha (third quartile, W); (Rated 4) 7. Jeff Samardzija (fourth quartile, W); 8. Alfredo Simon (fourth quartile, ERA); 9. John Lackey (third quartile, ERA); 10. Marco Estrada (third quartile, ERA) and Drew Hutchison (third quartile, W). Yordano Ventura would have made the list, but he's an injury concern now. Monitor his recovery.
Also worthy of consideration are RHPs Dillon Gee, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Brandon McCarthy and LHPs Jon Niese and Tyler Skaggs.
Slumpers/dumpers: (Rated 8) 1. Justin Masterson (second quartile, SO); (Rated 7) 2. Tim Lincecum (second quartile, W and SO); 3. Homer Bailey (second quartile, W and SO); 4. Jeremy Guthrie (second quartile, WHIP); 5. Kyle Gibson (second quartile, W); 6. Bronson Arroyo (second quartile, W); 7. Charlie Morton (second quartile, ERA); 8. Edwin Jackson (second quartile, SO); 9. Henderson Alvarez (second quartile, ERA); (Rated 6) 10. Mark Buehrle (first quartile, ERA and W; second quartile, WHIP). Martin Perez would have been in the top 10, but he won't pitch again this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Other likely slumpers include LHPs Madison Bumgarner, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley and Roenis Elias, and RHPs Jordan Lyles, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Chris Archer and R.A. Dickey.
You expected Samardzija to head the sleepers list, didn't you? We heard so much about how he hadn't won even with an ERA barely in triple digits. However, his Strikeability rated just a 3 with a 2.57 K:W ratio. His ERA almost has to go up, along with his WHIP. And even if he pitches well, he's still with the Cubs until he's traded.
This year, I'm also ranking pitchers 1-103, the number of pitchers on an inning-per-game pace that would make them eligible for the ERA title.
Top quarter overall: (Rated 2) 1. Adam Wainwright, 2. Masahiro Tanaka, 3. Johnny Cueto, 4. Jose Fernandez (injured), 5. Tim Hudson, (Rated 3) 6. Felix Hernandez, 7. Zack Greinke, 8. James Shields, 9. Yu Darvish, 10. Jesse Chavez, 11. Max Scherzer, 12. Kyle Lohse, 13. Dallas Keuchel, 14. Jason Hammel, 15. Scott Kazmir, 16. Jon Lester, 17. Julio Teheran, 18. Michael Wacha, 19. Rick Porcello, 20. Yordano Ventura. 21. Ian Kennedy, 22. Michael Leake, (Rated 4) 23. Jered Weaver, 24. Sonny Gray, 25. C.J. Wilson, 26. Tyson Ross.
No real surprises at the top until we get to ... Jesse Chavez at No. 10. He has been pitching very well for Oakland, but Chavez has spent most of his career as a reliever, and we can't really know how he'd hold up during the season's second half.
Also, props to Rick Porcello, who at the time I compared these pitchers had won seven games while walking  just seven. In case you're wondering, there have been three instances in major league history of a 20-game winner with more wins than walks.
Second quartile: 27. John Lackey, 28. Alfredo Simon, 29. Marco Estrada, 30. Drew Hutchison, 31. Garrett Richards, 32. Jeff Samardzija, 33. Stephen Strasburg, 34. Jon Niese, 35. Dillon Gee, 36. Tanner Roark, 37. Tyler Skaggs, 38. Brandon McCarthy, (Rated 5, average) 39. Aaron Harang, 40. Cliff Lee, 41. Corey Kluber, 42. Phil Hughes, 43. David Price, 44. Lance Lynn, 45. Travis Wood, 46. Wily Peralta, 47. Dan Haren, 48. Alex Wood, 49. Ervin Santana, 50. Jorge DeLaRosa, 51. Jason Vargas, 52. Gerrit Cole.
Third quartile: 53. Andrew Cashner, 54. Jose Quintana, 55. Gio Gonzalez, 56. Bud Norris, 57. Chris Young, 58. Hiroki Kuroda, 59. Bartolo Colon, 60. Tom Koehler, 61. Yovani Gallardo, (Rated 6) 62. Madison Bumgarner, 63. Mark Buehrle, 64. Jordan Lyles, 65. Nathan Eovaldi, 66. Shelby Miller, 67. R.A. Dickey, 68. Edinson Volquez, 69. Roenis Elias, 70. A.J. Burnett, 71. Wei-Yin Chen, 72. Chris Archer,  73. Chris Tillman, 74. Wade Miley, 75. Jordan Zimmermann, 76. Matt Garza, 77. Francisco Liriano, 78. Ryan Vogelsong, 79. Kyle Kendrick.
Bottom quarter: 80. Jarred Cosart, (Rated 7) 81. Justin Verlander, 82. Juan Nicasio, 83. Tim Lincecum, 84. Homer Bailey, 85. Martin Perez (injured), 86. Edwin Jackson, 87. Bronson Arroyo, 88. Henderson Alvarez, 89. Charlie Morton, 90. Jeremy Guthrie, 91. Kyle Gibson, 92. Jake Peavy, 93. Roberto Hernandez, 94. Ubaldo Jimenez, 95. Ricky Nolasco, 96. Clay Buchholz, (Rated 8) 97. Justin Masterson, 98. John Danks, 99. Zach Wheeler, 100. Franklin Morales, 101. Robbie Ross, 102. Kevin Correia, 103. Eric Stults.
Keep in mind that these are the poorest among the starters who would qualify in ERA, a group that includes less than 3 1/2 starters per team. So consider that few if any fifth starters, and most fourth starters, don't even qualify for the bottom quarter. You don't want those pitchers.            

It's time to start looking at fast starts

The first month of the season has gotten away from me.
It has been a busy time -- with hockey and basketball coverage, the Final Four, my wedding and by my count so far five Rangers games and eight RoughRiders.
I've had an unusual Friday and Saturday off from any pro sports coverage -- though I did watch parts of the Stars and Rangers games, and the end of Blues-Blackhawks last night after a lengthy nap.
I'll be back at it Sunday with Stars playoff game six, Monday with Mavericks playoff game four, Tuesday with possibly high school softball playoffs and Wednesday with Rangers-Athletics.
Sunday also will be the end of Week 4 of the 26-week major league season.
My rule of thumb for fantasy baseball is not to make major moves until the season is five weeks old, so now is the time for me to be thinking about some possible moves.
My teams, by the way, are scuffling in the middle of the pack in all three leagues. I expect to have more specifics for you Monday after I've compiled the Week 4 stats.
After five weeks, I believe there is enough information to make informed decisions about which veterans might be losing it, which rookies are more than a flash in the pan and which players may have physical ailments that are holding them back and could cost them playing time.
If you go to mlb.com these days, you can find information encouraging you to vote for the All-Star starters. To me, it's too early to do something like that.
Remember the outrage last year when Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig wasn't on the All-Star team? Aside from the fact that about 50 players per league get on the team either from the original selections or as fill-ins for guys who beg out of the game, Puig really didn't belong in the game because his incredibly hot start was just that: a hot start. Small sample size, you know.
His 2014 start, dotted with the kind of inconsistent play and punctuality that seems to bother managers, Puig is batting .263. He has hit three home runs and stolen one base, but that's hardly All-Star caliber.
Here's another guy whose career seems to be going in the opposite direction: Rangers LHP Martin Perez.
I've been seeing him pitch for the last five seasons, mostly in the minors. During that time, Perez has shown flashes of competence, if not brilliance, but mostly inconsistency. That's inconsistent not just from game to game but often from inning to inning.
My opinion of Perez changed with his shutout of the White Sox April 18. It was an easy 12-0 victory, but it was also the first American League shutout or even complete game this season and the kind of game when his concentration might have lapsed in the past. He was economical with his pitches, and he threw ground ball after ground ball.
The AL's next shutout came five days later, when Perez pitched another three-hitter in Oakland. That stretched his winning streak to his last four starts and his scoreless streak to 26 innings. It was a fairly tense 3-0 win; the type of game when in the past one bad inning could have blown up a well pitched game.
Perez has matured, at a time when Texas needed him to shore up an injury-depleted rotation.
Now RHP Colby Lewis is back, if not in mid-season form. LHP Matt Harrison is scheduled for his first start this weekend. I saw him being brilliant in eight scoreless innings in his final rehab start for Double-A Frisco. Granted, it was against Texas League batters, but Harrison's approach was impeccable. In another couple of months, LHP Derek Holland will have recovered from his knee surgery. And until now, this paragraph hasn't included the Rangers' ace, RHP Yu Darvish.
Now, here's a preview of the kinds of things I'll be looking for in evaluating players at the five-week mark.
I look for batters with the best walk:strikeout ratios. The five major league batters with the most walks so far all have walked more often than they have struck out -- Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista 27:18 (or 1.50), Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen 21:16, Indians 3B/C Carlos Santana 20:19, Athletics SS Jed Lowrie 19:10 (1.90) and Reds 1B Joey Votto 19:18.
Three of those are no surprise. Lowrie started fast last season, but faded; he also could be a relatively low-investment shortstop, say if Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is injured again. Expect Santana's ratio to decrease. He's batting .133, so his team will expect him to be more aggressive to raise that average. He can't help you much now, but keep in mind that if he begins hitting he also will exercise pretty good strike-zone judgment.
Next in line in walks are Tulowitzki himself at 17:11, and Twins SS Brian Dozier with 17 walks but 24 strikeouts. Dozier impressed me last season as a much better player than I expected until I saw him. He has improbable statistics this year: six stolen bases and seven homers, but a mere nine RBI and a .222 average. He's a player likely to do worse if his team plays well. If Minnesota becomes a contender, pitchers would work him more closely, respecting his power, instead of giving him fastballs to hit in blowouts.
I've also looked at my pitching leading indicators. It's clear that pitchers' K:W ratios are out of whack because of small sample sizes. The leaders are Phillies LHP Cliff Lee 19.00, Yankees RHP Masahiro Tanaka 17.50, Giants RHP Tim Hudson 12.50, Mariners RHP Feliz Hernandez 10.75 and Rays LHP David Price 10.00. If any of them finish the season with ratios even half as high, they would be having an exceptional year. But the early returns indicate that the Yanks and Giants made good off-season signings.
The leaders in opponents' batting average are mixed between top pitchers and likely pretenders: Reds RHP Johnny Cueto .140, Braves RHP Aaron Harang .143, Phillies LHP Cole Hamels .151, somebody's RHP Garrett Richards .155 and Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright .165.
At the opposite end are mostly some surprising pitchers: Twins RHP Ricky Nolasco .347, Reds RHP Homer Bailey .345, Orioles LHP Wei-chin Chen .330, Twins RHP Kevin Correia .327 and Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner .314. In the next few weeks, expect to see at least two among Nolasco, Bailey, Chen and Bumgarner to go on the disabled list.
The low-end K:W pitchers are Astros RHP Scott Feldman 1.00, White Sox LHP John Danks 1.08, Phillies RHP A.J. Burnett and Twins RHP Kyle Gibson 1.18 and Orioles RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 1.24. Most of them have seen better days than they'll have this season. Gibson is off to a good start he might not be able to maintain with such a low ratio.

Giants banking on rotation plus Hudson

Short update today, at least for now. Lots to do.
In the days leading up to the winter meetings, major league teams seem content with signing deals and making moves to add or retain pieces of their rotation.
The Giants, who won two World Series in the last 4 years, seem confident that with the added infusion of RHP Tim Hudson they again have enough starting pitching to get into the postseason and be a threat to win it all.
They announced that they will resign RHP Ryan Vogelsong, as long as he passes his physical. His contract reportedly would be for about $5 million for 2014, with incentives.
Speculation is that RHP Yusmeiro Petit could compete with Vogelsong for the fifth starter's job behind Hudson, RHPs Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum and LHP Madison Bumgarner.
* * *
Hockey. My team made another jump in the standings, gaining 5 points and moving within 4 points of second place. The increase was mostly because the goalies in my lineup, Steve Mason and Jean-Sebastien Giguere, each won and allowed only goal. There's still room for growth in PPP (power play points), wins and save percentage.
For Saturday, all of the spots in my starting lineup are taken. However, it's possible that none of my goalies would return to play back-to-back games. I moved Toronto G James Reimer ahead of Avalance backup Giguere.
* * *
Basketball. This team is trailing this week's competition 5-3, with the most likely place to gain a game in field goal percentage. The basketball schedule isn't as busy, so just 6 of the 10 spots in my starting lineup are filled.

Veteran pitchers in some demand

There is news in the Hot Stove League. Foremost was the Giants' signing of 38-year-old RHP Tim Hudson to a two-year contract for a reported $23 million. He still can pitch, as long as he recovers from this season's ankle injury. Monday's other definite signing was C Carlos Ruiz, who will remain with the Phillies for three years, with an option for 2017. His contract is worth a reported $26 million. Pending physicals, 40-year-old RHP LaTroy Hawkins would join the Rockies on a one-year, $2.25-million deal and OF/2B Skip Schumaker would become a Cincinnati Red for two years at an undisclosed salary. I'll have more coming up on Hawkins, who pitched for Colorado's 2007 National League champions and could compete for next season's job as closer with LHP Rex Brothers. Which makes sense, because Hawkins has hung around as long as almost any journeyman southpaw reliever. Speaking of lefties, the Orioles signed one, 25-year-old LHP Kelvin De La Cruz. He has had some success against left-handed batters in the high minors for the Dodgers' organization. There's no guarantee that that success would carry over into the majors. * * * While I was at tonight's 76ers-Mavericks game, I had some thoughts about fantasy basketball. Namely, that I'd never played it, didn't really know what categories were used and didn't know how valuable my plus/minus system would be in evaluating players for fantasy basketball. I'll give you results of a preliminary plus/minus study soon. No, it's not the same as the plus-minus you might see in NBA box scores When I arrived home, I looked around espn.com, where my football and hockey fantasy teams reside, and noted that a fantasy basketball draft was scheduled to begin that very minute. Just 8 of the 10 positions were filled, 9 once I signed up. So the draft was delayed another 5 minutes. During that time, a 10th team joined. The draft breezed by in about half an hour. I was in the ninth position in a snake draft, but it seemed pretty clear that I didn't make good use of the six sets of two picks close together. Of course, a modicum of preparation might have helped. When the draft ended, I looked at our league page and found out that the categories at ESPN are pretty standard -- points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-point field goals made and the percentage categories of field goal and free throw percentage. I also found out that the league apparently back-dated our league to play three weeks of head-to-head competition, one "game" for each category -- and I was already in last place at 5-18-1 and trailing in this week's competition 3-4-1. The only players on my new team who were in action tonight were big men Joakim Noah, Serge Ibaka and Samuel Dalembert (who played very well for Dallas). So I did well in rebounds and blocks, but didn't have any 3-pointers, so I lost that category. Just set my lineup for Tuesday. I moved Gerald Wallace on to my active roster, replacing Victor Oladipo as one of my utility players. Wallace's team, the Celtics, is playing Tuesday; Oladipo's Orlando Magic isn't. There should be a few 3s Tuesday. Also playing for me will be Ricky Rubio, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. The lessons already learned here are simply 1) Prepare for your draft and 2) Know the rules and all the set up/settings for your league. My fantasy hockey team started slowly too. I'll be out of last place, maybe within a week. Getting to first place could be a tall order. * * * Speaking of hockey, my team suffered Monday from not having any of my goalies playing. Not only did I lose half a point because the team tied with me had a goalie who won a game, but I also dropped 2 additional points behind the third-place team because he overtook me in ATOI. I'm still confident that I can move up in the goalie categories as well as in three skaters' categories in which I'm also fourth in a 10-team league. * * * There was no action on my fantasy football leagues Monday. RB D'Angelo Williams did not score for my scoring-only league team, which already had clinched a 33-28 victory. But Carolina's rally gave me a loss and an 8-8 record for the week in the Pittsburgh office pool that includes me. I remained 14 games out of first place, but inched up to six games out of the money with six weeks to play. I can only hope for a huge week to fuel a rally like the one I had last year.