Sunday, February 19, 2012

Sell high on Linperman

I'm about to see my first dose of Linsanity.
I don't need to see it to know that this bubble, this 15 minutes, will burst well in advance of the NBA playoffs.
So if you're one of those fantasy basketball owners with the foresight, or perhaps desperation, to buy low and cash in on Jeremy Lin's ever-upward swing of the roller coaster (assuming that your league doesn't assign negative points for turnovers), you should be actively shopping him for another productive young player. Or perhaps for a veteran who you think will take his game off of autopilot down the stretch.
Lin wasn't totally made out of whole cloth. He has had some big games during his hot streak. However, you need to put his performance into context, as my friend John Benson would urge.
He arrived in the national consciousness in sort of a perfect storm. He has had his success playing for New York in the media magnifying glass. He's a great story, already the greatest Asian-American player in the NBA and the greatest Harvard grad to play pro ball. Most of all, he stepped into a media vacuum.
The timing was perfect. Virtually nothing else is going on in the sports world. NFL? Nothing more than a few, but still too many, pre-combine reports. Baseball? Pitchers and catchers still hadn't reported. Hockey? Eh? College basketball? In a whirl of mind-numbing conference games that mean absolutely nothing. the ninth-place team in the Big Ten still will get into the NCAA tournament.
NBA? Sure, teams are playing every night, but they're not playing well.
Lin has succeeded by playing full speed against teams full of players going at half-speed. Well, not all. Some are playing at three-quarter speed, and some really gearing it up for the last minute in the few games that have been close.
Need more proof of that. Kris Humphries scored 24 points and had 17 rebounds a couple of nights ago. See? Any player on an NBA roster can do that if he's trying hard in a game this year.
Anyway, you could turn Lin into a far better fantasy player if you act quickly. Don't get stuck, like those silk screeners getting in late on Lin-based T-shirt production. At least some kids in Guatemala will be getting free T-shirts soon.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Yu and the Rangers

The other day, I posted on Twitter of Facebook that as a Rangers fan, I could say I love Yu. I meant that in a totally platonic way, of course.
Let me say that I saw Yu coming years ago, in 2005, and was very disappointed by some early reports indicating that Texas might not get in on the posting bidding for the Japanese star.
Back in '05, when my old website fantasybaseballscout.com was still in business, one of my contributing writers was Michael Cohen, an American living in Japan and following the Japanese leagues closely. He sent in a glowing report on the even younger Yu Darvish, which I published on the web under a clever headline something like "Japan's whirling Darvish." There was speculation even then that there might be a way to get him posted to come to the U.S. earlier than usual.
So if you happened to see fantasybaseballscout.com that year, or in the subsequent years when the article still was archived, you could have read the same glowing scouting report that accompanied the time when Darvish actually was posted this fall. You know, about his power, his maturity, his poise, his competitiveness, his barely believable stats, the seven (or nine) pitches he throws.
The other day I saw a projection for Darvish in 2012. It predicted a 15-7 record and a relatively low ERA. I'd say that's a low end of what he could do for the Rangers. I'd put him down for somewhere between 15 and 18 wins this season. Twenty or 21 wouldn't shock me.
More to come soon on the Rangers. And I need to get you a Caribbean Series report.

Flawed vision

My big game 46 premises generally were correct, but my conclusion was pretty far off. It wasn't Patriots and over (41-31 was my prediction), but of course Giants and under.
I surmised that the game would come down to a big stop or a turnover leading to a score. That wasn't really the case, unless you consider that New England couldn't come up with a stop on the Giants' final, game-winning possession.
In the fourth quarter, it wasn't so much that New York stopped the Pats, but that they stopped themselves. In part, Gisele was correct. The Pats' receivers let them down. It seemed as if they dropped as many passes in the fourth quarter as they had all season. However, it wasn't all on the receivers -- Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Deon Branch could share the blame with Mr. Bundchen himself. Sure, they were dropping passes, but that might not have been used to having to reach for passes from Tom Brady.
The difference between an elite passer and the next couple of tiers down is that the elite guy can put the ball exactly where he wants it, to arrive precisely over the correct shoulder, away from defenders and into the receiver's hands. Kind of like the ball Eli Manning threw to Mario Manningham to launch the winning drive. In fact, Brady's passes weren't that accurate in either of the last two playoff games. One reason I expected the Patriots would win was that Brady wouldn't have two games in a row below his lofty standards. For three quarters, he didn't.
Which reminded me of the one nugget of precious information that I heard among the pile of manure that spewed out over the airwaves during the previous 2 weeks. I don't remember who said it, but the comment was that even if the pass rush isn't sacking the quarterback, its repeated pressure could cause the QB to crack late in the game when he was tired. That scenario seemed to fit Brady's situation.
He still passed for 276 yards and two TDs, with a costly interception, so he pretty much fit in with my key performers. If the fourth-quarter passes/catches had connected, Brady would have been over 300 yards and possibly with a third TD. Eli Manning was the game MVP with his 296 yards, a TD and no picks. It did take the QBs at least 40 passes each to reach that yardage, and they didn't move their teams well enough to come close to my 72-point prediction or even the 53-ish over/under. The QBs' fantasy points were 17 for Brady, 15 for Manning.
I didn't pick any running backs to shine. Ahmad Bradshaw did get up to 13 fantasy points by leaning back into the end zone on his final carry, but passing was the name of both offensive games.
Look at how the top receivers matched my three predicted top-performing pass-catchers. Hernandez for the Patriots. 8 catches, 67 yards, a TD, 12 points. Check. Hakeem Nicks for the Giants. 10 catches, 109 yards, 10 points. Check. Manningham. 5 catches, 73 yards, 7 points. Pretty much check. I didn't expect a big game from Victor Cruz, but his TD catch combined with 4 catches for 25 yards gave him 8 points.
My last point: The two substandard games by Brady to finish the season could portend a decrease in production going forward to next season, and the beginning of a career decline. That will give us something to watch for in September. In April, watch to see if New England drafts a quarterback.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Super vision

I probably will watch at least some of big game 46.
It's on TV, and not much else is.
Can't get very excited about it, especially with my one fantasy football team that runs through the NFL playoffs, in the Andy Memorial Football League, was relegated early to the WhoCares.com Toilet Bowl this season.
That had something to do with having Chris Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald as my two keepers in a scoring-only league. I thought about dropping both of them, but it became easier in a league with very few top choices still available and with the thought that I'd have to draft just 14 players instead of 16, just to hang on to them.
I really didn't want to buy into the Kevin Kolb hype, but I did. And I didn't foresee the playing-for-a-contract aspect of Chris Johnson's 2010 season. Chris Johnson? Who's that? He's dead to me.
He'll go down with a first-round Randy Moss back in the '05 Rochester Championship of Fantasy Football as my worst picks ever. If you have the stomach, check out Moss' stats for that year. He more than negated one of my most brilliant picks ever, Willie Parker in the 15th round.
Anyway, everybody who is in any kind of postseason fantasy league no doubt already has made his/her picks. Just for the record, here are my thoughts.
The game will go over. The offenses are just too good, and the defenses aside from a few shiny players are pretty porous.
I also like the Patriots, for the two usual reasons: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick. New England's coach rarely fails when he has an extra week to prepare, and I don't expect anyone to catch a pass with his helmet this time.
For key individual performers, I give you Brady and, because Rob Gronkowski is a question mark (but one who still will step up bigger than most TES), Aaron Hernandez from the Pats. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are just too good not to have big games if New England focuses on shutting down Victor Cruz. Eli Manning should have a good game.
The key of course, will be which team will get a big, key stop or a turnover leading to a score. Possibly both. I think that team will be New England, something like 41-31.

I forgot a holiday

It occurred to me that in Friday's post I neglected to mention the holiday that got me thinking about all the February holidays and "holidays."
Friday itself was the 53rd anniversary of The Day The Music Died.
In retrospect, I think Ritchie Valens might have had a reasonable career. He might even have brought Tejano or Tex-Mex music to the fore much earlier than its sporadic success with Freddy Fender and Selena.
The Big Bopper very well might have been a one-hit wonder even if he hadn't died in that Feb. 3, 1959, plane crash in Iowa.
But Buddy Holley's influence lives on. He was a prodigious and prolific songwriter, with a number of them that became his own hits or covered by the biggest names of the '60s and '70s. We're talking Beatles and Stones here, among others. Buddy's music was way ahead of its time.
If you're ever in Lubbock, the Buddy Holley Museum is the place to go. It's an even better tourist attraction than the Buddy Holley statue or the United supermarket salad bar where Bobby Knight verbally abused the Texas Tech chancellor. Or the prairie dog museum, for that matter.
Anyway, props to Buddy Holley and condolences to Maria Elena.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Every day's a holiday

February is a short month, but I didn't realize until lately how many holidays are crammed into it.
It has Presidents' Day, which used to be the separate birthdays of Abraham Lincoln and George Washington, two allegedly honest politicians who wouldn't stand a chance today.
There's the fake holiday of Valentine's Day.
Yesterday was another pretty fake holiday, Groundhog Day. Six more weeks of winter? Didn't you mean last winter. A year ago, everything here was frozen over for the week of the big game. At 4:30 this afternoon, depending on which thermometer you believe on T.L. Townsend Drive, it was either 73 or 71 degrees. A little bit of rain, but no ice in sight unless it was in Josh Hamilton's glass Monday. More later.
There's also sort of a holiday all month, Black History Month. These days, many -- maybe most -- black/African-American people would say about what Kevin Durant said in an interview Wednesday night, "I celebrate Black History Month all year."
That brings us to the really important holidays, which actually began Jan. 31.
That's the eve of the month in which pitchers and catchers report, so at the stroke of midnight, it is that month. One year when I was in college, my friend Tom and I took our gloves to a Friday or Saturday night party so we could play some catch at midnight to celebrate this holiday. Of course, all day Feb. 1 celebrates the holiday. And so do several consecutive days when one team or another has its pitchers and catchers report for PACR Day.
Back to Hamilton. Now that the Susan G. Komen Foundation has relented, Hamilton is reluctantly hogging the air waves as an even bigger story than the big game was last year. And speaking of Komen, even for non-profits, money talks.
The money that talks to Hamilton will be a lot quieter than anyone would have thought a week ago. Randy Galloway on DFW's ESPN Radio station speculated that Hamilton's relapse could knock his next contract down from 6 years and $120 million to 1 year for $20 million, with strings attached. I was thinking more along the lines of 3 voidable years at $15 million per season.
It is a sad story. Hamilton already has lost some productive years to his addictions. He might lose more, but right now it's impossible for his teammates, fans and major league teams to count on him.
That puts Hamilton's fantasy owners in a precarious position. Their expectations no doubt already were dampened by the amount of playing time he has missed even during the years when he has played. He could be a huge bust or an unbelievable bargain. Unquestionably, he is a big gamble.
You'd be perfectly justified in dropping him if he's a potential keeper. If he has the kind of contract year for you that other star players have had, good for you. But if he's a colossal bomb, you can't complain and say you weren't warned.
My recommendation would be not to expect anything more nor less than what he produced in 2011. Let the fantasy bidding or drafting stop there.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Some NBA stuff

And speaking of stuff, that's what Serge Ibaka did with Mavericks shots tonight.
I helped cover the Oklahoma City-Dallas game tonight for The Associated Press, and the Thunder's Ibaka had an unusual double-double of 11 rebounds -- and 10 blocks!
Like his teammates, the Congolese big man didn't even start playing defense until the second quarter. OK City allowed just 57 points over the final three periods in its 95-86 victory.http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif
It got to the point where it appeared that Ibaka had posted a "No trespassing" sign at the foul line. So while the Thunder were (AP style)/was (grammatical) scoring 42 points in the paint against Dallas's Brendan Haywood-less defense, the Mavs were mostly bombing away from long range. And missing.
Dirk Nowitzki -- roughed up by the Thunder's defense, primarily Kendrick Perkins, and playing on a bad knee -- made just 2 of 15 field goal attempts.
As a center, Ibaka is far more Russell than Chamberlain, but don't you dare ever say I compared him favorably to either of those literal and figurative giants. However, while Ibaka would score very few points for your fantasy basketball team, he was already a giant in the blocked-shots category. He ranked third in the league before his double-digit night.
It might be that the Mavericks just suck inside, or it might be that I've seen some of the NBA's better defensive centers recently. The Suns' also impressed me when I saw him against Dallas. Gortat even can contribute offensively, so there's another low-profile guy to consider for an NbA fantasy team.
On the other hand, you might want to reconsider a number of your Mavericks picks. Tonight especially, they looked old and slow. Shawn Marion went limping out of the American Airlines Center after the game. He almost qualifies as young on a team that most resembles the 2005 All-Star team.
The lone exception could be Jason Terry, who never saw a shot he didn't like and still can make them.
True, the Mavs were playing without Haywood, who helped bring a defensive presence in the middle for a team that had lacked one seemingly forever. Without him, Oklahoma City resembled the Warriors who ran at will through the middle of Dallas' defense in the 2007-08 playoffs. Kevin Durant and especially Russell Westbrook played the roles of Steven Jackson et al. tonight.
OK, so Lamar Odom didn't play. (He's not getting any younger either.) And Jason Kidd, who might begin collecting his pension the day after he retires.
A last basketball note: The Thunder is/are for real.
My original intention for this post was to remind baseball fans, if you didn't already know or remember, why Jan. 31 and Feb. 1 are two of the best dates on the calendar. I decided while driving home that I can hold that topic for a day or so.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

How many vegetables can Prince Fielder eat in 9 years?

While driving home last night from a basketball game in Stephenville (or was it the Mavericks' game in Dallas the night before?), I heard a discussion about whether the Tigers overpaid for Prince Fielder in dollars or length of contract.

One of the announcers kind of threw a theory and names he heard once against the wall to justify his case. His premise was that the most difficult commodity to obtain in baseball now is an "elite slugger" in the "post-steroid era."

That announcer apparently never has heard of ace pitchers. He might not even have heard of Ryan Braun, a player in Fielder's same lineup for the last few years, who metaphorically was busted with an MVP award in one hand and a syringe in the other. The announcer's best argument was that teams no longer can find a "John Jaha to hit 50 home runs."

Dude quite obviously knows more baseball than I, who wasn't even award of Jaha's 50-home run season.

Another guy -- sorry I don't have names, the voices all blend together -- agreed with the point of the Detroit Free Press' Drew Sharp, whose contention has been that the Tigers overpaid to replicate Miguel Cabrera.

Nine years and $214 million?

Point 1. GM has made a comeback. President Obama told us that. But will auto workers pay higher ticket prices to watch Cabrera, Fielder and in time presumably Victor Martinez fight to see which one could be the DH that day and not have to wear a glove?

Point 2. In the last 4 or 5 of those years, Fielder will be past his prime even as a hitter. He'd have to play at Ruthian levels during the first 4 or 5 years, during which he'd have to justify about 4150 million of that contract.

Point 3. The world's largest vegetarian already is pushing 300 pounds. Unless he lays off Cap'n Crunch for the next 9 years, it might not be long before they'd have to wheel him out to the plate. I'd endorse a rule change that would allow him to sit at his position in an easy chair on the days Justin Verlander pitches.

Of course, the Tigers overpaid. The winners in this scenario are Fielder and agent Scott Boras, who will make close to eight figures from this contract. In years to come, agents with "elite slugger" or even lowly "elite aces" will be patient, waiting for just the right opportunity -- such as the Martinez injury -- to get their clients a few dozen million extra bucks.

Even with the injury, it's difficult to believe that other teams were offering anything close to 9 years or $214 million.

Hats off to Boras and Fielder for cashing in. For the Tigers, though, their poor judgment seems likely to bring bad karma.