Wainwright's No. 1, but look who's No. 10 -- for now

Here you'll find my annual in-season suggestions of pitchers to keep and drop.
On the Memorial Day weekend, I measure two skills -- Strikeability, based on strikeout:walk ratio, and Hittability, based on opponents' batting average.
Dividing starting pitchers into four groups, top to bottom, in each category leads to numerical ratings ranging from 2 (for those in the top quarter in both K/W and BA) to 8 (for those in the bottom quarter of each).
The next step is to compare those ratings with who's doing well in the basic starting pitching fantasy categories -- Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
We've been through nearly two months of the season. In most cases, that's enough to gauge who will do well during the final four months. I have several years of success with this method.
A pitcher doing better in the Strikeability/Hittability ratings than in the fantasy stats is likely to be a good bet to improve in the fantasy measures. In addition, a pitcher struggling in those measures isn't someone you'll want to keep.
The pitchers ranked 2 have been the best in the majors in April and May, and should be good going forward. They're RHPs Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Tim Hudson and Masahiro Tanaka.
At the other end are the pitchers ranked 8. They might not even belong as starters in the majors, let alone on your fantasy team. The seven are RHPs Justin Masterson, Zach Wheeler and Kevin Correia, and LHPs John Danks, Franklin Morales, Robbie Ross (whom the Rangers dropped from their rotation before Memorial Day) and Eric Stults.
What you really want to know from this information is which pitchers are sleepers, the ones who have pitched better than their early results indicate. Also, which pitchers who have had statistical success are due for a fall.
Here are the top 10 lists for sleepers and slumpers, or keepers and dumpers if you prefer, with the statistical categories where you might expect improvement.
Sleepers/keepers: (Rated 2) 1. Tim Hudson (fourth quartile, SO); (Rated 3) 2. Michael Leake (fourth quartile, W and SO); 3. Rick Porcello (fourth quartile, SO); 4. Ian Kennedy (third quartile, ERA and W); 5. Scott Kazmir (third quartile, SO); 6. Michael Wacha (third quartile, W); (Rated 4) 7. Jeff Samardzija (fourth quartile, W); 8. Alfredo Simon (fourth quartile, ERA); 9. John Lackey (third quartile, ERA); 10. Marco Estrada (third quartile, ERA) and Drew Hutchison (third quartile, W). Yordano Ventura would have made the list, but he's an injury concern now. Monitor his recovery.
Also worthy of consideration are RHPs Dillon Gee, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Brandon McCarthy and LHPs Jon Niese and Tyler Skaggs.
Slumpers/dumpers: (Rated 8) 1. Justin Masterson (second quartile, SO); (Rated 7) 2. Tim Lincecum (second quartile, W and SO); 3. Homer Bailey (second quartile, W and SO); 4. Jeremy Guthrie (second quartile, WHIP); 5. Kyle Gibson (second quartile, W); 6. Bronson Arroyo (second quartile, W); 7. Charlie Morton (second quartile, ERA); 8. Edwin Jackson (second quartile, SO); 9. Henderson Alvarez (second quartile, ERA); (Rated 6) 10. Mark Buehrle (first quartile, ERA and W; second quartile, WHIP). Martin Perez would have been in the top 10, but he won't pitch again this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Other likely slumpers include LHPs Madison Bumgarner, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley and Roenis Elias, and RHPs Jordan Lyles, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Chris Archer and R.A. Dickey.
You expected Samardzija to head the sleepers list, didn't you? We heard so much about how he hadn't won even with an ERA barely in triple digits. However, his Strikeability rated just a 3 with a 2.57 K:W ratio. His ERA almost has to go up, along with his WHIP. And even if he pitches well, he's still with the Cubs until he's traded.
This year, I'm also ranking pitchers 1-103, the number of pitchers on an inning-per-game pace that would make them eligible for the ERA title.
Top quarter overall: (Rated 2) 1. Adam Wainwright, 2. Masahiro Tanaka, 3. Johnny Cueto, 4. Jose Fernandez (injured), 5. Tim Hudson, (Rated 3) 6. Felix Hernandez, 7. Zack Greinke, 8. James Shields, 9. Yu Darvish, 10. Jesse Chavez, 11. Max Scherzer, 12. Kyle Lohse, 13. Dallas Keuchel, 14. Jason Hammel, 15. Scott Kazmir, 16. Jon Lester, 17. Julio Teheran, 18. Michael Wacha, 19. Rick Porcello, 20. Yordano Ventura. 21. Ian Kennedy, 22. Michael Leake, (Rated 4) 23. Jered Weaver, 24. Sonny Gray, 25. C.J. Wilson, 26. Tyson Ross.
No real surprises at the top until we get to ... Jesse Chavez at No. 10. He has been pitching very well for Oakland, but Chavez has spent most of his career as a reliever, and we can't really know how he'd hold up during the season's second half.
Also, props to Rick Porcello, who at the time I compared these pitchers had won seven games while walking  just seven. In case you're wondering, there have been three instances in major league history of a 20-game winner with more wins than walks.
Second quartile: 27. John Lackey, 28. Alfredo Simon, 29. Marco Estrada, 30. Drew Hutchison, 31. Garrett Richards, 32. Jeff Samardzija, 33. Stephen Strasburg, 34. Jon Niese, 35. Dillon Gee, 36. Tanner Roark, 37. Tyler Skaggs, 38. Brandon McCarthy, (Rated 5, average) 39. Aaron Harang, 40. Cliff Lee, 41. Corey Kluber, 42. Phil Hughes, 43. David Price, 44. Lance Lynn, 45. Travis Wood, 46. Wily Peralta, 47. Dan Haren, 48. Alex Wood, 49. Ervin Santana, 50. Jorge DeLaRosa, 51. Jason Vargas, 52. Gerrit Cole.
Third quartile: 53. Andrew Cashner, 54. Jose Quintana, 55. Gio Gonzalez, 56. Bud Norris, 57. Chris Young, 58. Hiroki Kuroda, 59. Bartolo Colon, 60. Tom Koehler, 61. Yovani Gallardo, (Rated 6) 62. Madison Bumgarner, 63. Mark Buehrle, 64. Jordan Lyles, 65. Nathan Eovaldi, 66. Shelby Miller, 67. R.A. Dickey, 68. Edinson Volquez, 69. Roenis Elias, 70. A.J. Burnett, 71. Wei-Yin Chen, 72. Chris Archer,  73. Chris Tillman, 74. Wade Miley, 75. Jordan Zimmermann, 76. Matt Garza, 77. Francisco Liriano, 78. Ryan Vogelsong, 79. Kyle Kendrick.
Bottom quarter: 80. Jarred Cosart, (Rated 7) 81. Justin Verlander, 82. Juan Nicasio, 83. Tim Lincecum, 84. Homer Bailey, 85. Martin Perez (injured), 86. Edwin Jackson, 87. Bronson Arroyo, 88. Henderson Alvarez, 89. Charlie Morton, 90. Jeremy Guthrie, 91. Kyle Gibson, 92. Jake Peavy, 93. Roberto Hernandez, 94. Ubaldo Jimenez, 95. Ricky Nolasco, 96. Clay Buchholz, (Rated 8) 97. Justin Masterson, 98. John Danks, 99. Zach Wheeler, 100. Franklin Morales, 101. Robbie Ross, 102. Kevin Correia, 103. Eric Stults.
Keep in mind that these are the poorest among the starters who would qualify in ERA, a group that includes less than 3 1/2 starters per team. So consider that few if any fifth starters, and most fourth starters, don't even qualify for the bottom quarter. You don't want those pitchers.            

Deals could benefit Rockies

There have a bunch of seemingly minor deals over the last couple of days, but some of them could have impacts in both fantasy and real baseball.
-- The Rockies gave up just LHP Josh Outman and middle infielder Jonathan Herrera to get OF Drew Stubbs from the Indians and LHP Franklin Morales and inconsequential minor league RHP Chris Martin from the Red Sox. It wasn't too long ago that Stubbs was a viable center fielder, with plenty of homers and a few homers. Someone in Colorado must like Morales, entering his second stint with the Rockies. Outman has shown some promise in years past, but hasn't extended his encouraging numbers over a full season.
-- In another trade, the Braves required versatile C/OF/1B Ryan Doumit for at least bench strength from the Twins for minor league LHP Sean Gilmartin.
-- The Astros, finally showing some creativity and ability to identify sleepers by trading SS Ryan Jackson, recently acquired on waivers from the Cardinals, to the Padres for 1B/OF Jesus Guzman. He is expected to compete for Houston's first base job but even more likely could be at least a right-handed-hitting DH. Guzman has a bat; Jackson has a glove. In the Texas League, Guzman was a far more impressive performer than Jackson. The downside is that Guzman arrived late in the majors and won't have a very long shelf life. But the Astros didn't have Jackson long enough to miss him and essentially acquired a needed bat for nothing.
-- Another good move, countering some of the Mariners' earlier off-season deals, was resigning OF Franklin Gutierrez. He was injured this season, but if he's physically able he could recapture center field, play some right, be a fourth outfielder/DH or at the very least be a defensive replacement for the lumbering players who could end up in Seattle's outfield. Gutierrez is hardly an automatic out at the plate. The loser in the off-season wheeling and dealing seems to be Dustin Ackley. For his sake, he may be able to escape the Mariners and become a viable 2B/OF somewhere else with a fresh start. He's young enough that he should have some value that could bring back a useful player in a trade.
-- The Padres also reportedly signed RHP Joaquin Benoit for $14 million over the next two seasons, pending a physical.
-- The Diamondbacks reportedly have agreed to resign 1B/3B Eric Chavez for a year.
-- The Royals traded OF David Lough to the Orioles for DH/3B Danny Valencia. This is a lefty batter (Lough) for righty trade. Valencia has more power; Lough is far superior defensively.
-- The Orioles' reported signing of RHP Grant Balfour for 2 years and $14 million makes it a de facto trade of closers after the Athletics acquired RHP Jim Johnson from Baltimore. The O's could be gambling that 2B Jemile Weeks, obtained in the Johnson trade, can be a useful major leaguer. I have my doubts but if he succeeds that could be a bonus.
-- In other news, Rays SS Tim Beckham, a former No. 1 draft pick, underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in a knee. That means he wouldn't be back until somewhere between June and August. I predict that you'll soon hear he'll be ready at the All-Star break, a magical time when so many players seem to heal. And as the break keeps growing, that becomes even more possible.
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Hockey. I seem to be stuck on 63 1/2 points and in third place. I'll pick up a point or so in one category and drop one in another area. The main thing is that I have to avoid continued wrong decisions on goalies. I'm down to six points total in the three goalie categories. Even an average showing in those areas would add 10 1/2 points and put me in second place on most days. Plus/minus also remains a problem. I seem to be taking one step forward and two back.
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Basketball. Through Wednesday, I had a slim 4-3-1 lead this week. Maintaining that would get me up to .500 at last, but I might have to do better to avoid dropping into eighth overall in the 10-team league. There's plenty of room and not a very long way to go to reach the top. Because so many teams are close, it becomes more important to make the right choices and especially to make lineup changes on time.

Halladay, Greinke, Ramon Ortiz shine on mound

The headline for this installment reads like one of Sesame Street’s “One of these things is not like the others.”
Nevertheless, RHP Ramon Ortiz made a strong pitch to return to the majors in the Dodgers’ rotation, putting together a pitching line of 420005 in a 4-0 victory over the Angels. OF prospect Angelo Songco, pretty far down the Bums’ organizational depth chart, hit surprisingly well during their China trip and hit a home run against LA/Anaheim. Put him on your list for the future, probably 2012.
After 2 ½ weeks of exhibition games, statistics are beginning to have some meaning. It doesn’t take stats to know that Phillies RHP Roy Halladay is good, but he lowered his ERA to 0.90 with a line of 531126 in a 5-1 victory over the Pirates. Normally, we’d wonder whether pitching against the Bucs should be included in major league stats, but they have been hitting surprisingly well this spring.
See the above comments and insert “Royals RHP Zack Greinke” for “Phillies RHP Roy Halladay.” Greinke also has an 0.90 ERA after also giving up a run, with a line of 421103 in a 9-1 victory over the White Sox. Chicago LHP Mark Buehrle’s line was a miserable 493312. It could have been worse for the Sox; all Kansas City could muster from 17 hits and seven walks was nine runs and 16 left on base.
OK, Athletics, it’s time to admit it: There’s something seriously wrong with RHP Ben Sheets. Their 13-5 loss to the Reds would still be going if Oakland hadn’t lifted him after 10 batters. His line was virtually impossible to surpass in futility: 0 8 10 910. That’s right; he faced 10 batters and all 10 scored.
In another 13-5 game, with the Diamondbacks defeating the Mariners, Seattle LHP Cliff Lee struggled for 2 2/3 innings, then his game ended when he was ejected for throwing at Arizona C Chris Snyder. Before that, Lee’s line was 2 2/3 64411.
Two Padres prospects, RHP Mat Latos and LHP Wade LeBlanc, combined to give up just five hits and one run in eight innings of a 7-1 victory over the Giants. That’s pitching in the hitter-friendly atmosphere of Arizona. Just imagine what that would translate into in San Diego. Another player to add to your future list: Giants RF prospect Roger Kieschnick. He has played in the minors only at high Class A San Jose, but the last two springs in major league exhibitions he has gone 6-for-12 with six RBI.
RHP Pete Parise was trying for his third save with the Cardinals, but failed when he gave up a game-winning two-run homer to Mets OF Angel Pagan in a 6-5 loss. That ballooned Parise’s ERA to 13.50.
In the Rockies’ 5-2 victory over the Cardinals, Colorado received good relief pitching from RHP Jhoulys Chacin (210012) and LHP Franklin Morales (100001). Chacin is likely to be a starter at Triple-A Colorado Springs, but seems likely to join the major league pitching staff during the season or even to begin the year in the Rockies’ bullpen. Morales and RHP Manuel Corpas could earn some regular-season saves because the closer, RHP Huston Street, is hurting.
The Nationals fell to 0-11 with a 5-2 loss to the Braves. Atlanta RHP Derek Lowe was dominant, with a pitching line of 400006. Or perhaps the meat of Washington’s batting order was submissive. The first five batters in the starting lineup – OF Justin Maxwell, SS Ian Desmond, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, 1B Adam Dunn and OF Elijah Dukes – were a combined 0-for-17.
Marlins OF prospect Michael Stanton hit his third homer this spring, this time against Twins LHP Francisco Liriano. Perhaps Liriano was building a case to pitch out of the bullpen as Minnesota’s closer because he wasn’t effective as the starter in the Twinkies’ 5-4 loss. His pitching line was 343306.
I caught some of the Rangers’ game against the Giants, enough to come up with several observations. Texas C Jarrod Saltalamacchia was back in the lineup after missing time because of a buildup of scar tissue in the area under his right armpit where he underwent surgery. The Rangers talk about Salty’s prospects for this season with smiley faces, but in the background they have to be looking for catching help just in case. 2B Ian Kinsler didn’t play, and will be out about a week, because of an ankle injury. LF Josh Hamilton’s in-and-out spring continued when he left the game after being hit on the right hand by a pitch from San Francisco LHP Madison Bumgarner. Also, Giants 3B Pablo Sandoval went 0-for-4, but one of the outs was on a diving catch by Rangers CF Julio Borbon. That event said that Sandoval’s still hitting line drives and that Texas might not have to worry much about Borbon’s defense.
Sample Scouting Report:
Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 205 B: R Age: 20
{2010} Stanton is considered one of baseball’s best power prospects. Between high Class A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville last year, he hit 28 home runs and drove in 92 runs. His batting average dropped 61 points at the higher level, and his strikeout/walk ratio grew from less than 2:1 to slightly above 3:1. For that reason, you should expect him to begin this season back in Double-A with a likely in-season promotion to Triple-A and a possible major league debut in September. Stanton has played some center field, but was exclusively a right fielder at Jacksonville. He has the arm to play that position in the majors. Born: Nov. 8, 1989, Los Angeles, Calif.
Projection
AB: 110 BA: .245 HR: 6 RBI: 19 SB: 1 R: 13 Value: $2