Wainwright's No. 1, but look who's No. 10 -- for now

Here you'll find my annual in-season suggestions of pitchers to keep and drop.
On the Memorial Day weekend, I measure two skills -- Strikeability, based on strikeout:walk ratio, and Hittability, based on opponents' batting average.
Dividing starting pitchers into four groups, top to bottom, in each category leads to numerical ratings ranging from 2 (for those in the top quarter in both K/W and BA) to 8 (for those in the bottom quarter of each).
The next step is to compare those ratings with who's doing well in the basic starting pitching fantasy categories -- Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
We've been through nearly two months of the season. In most cases, that's enough to gauge who will do well during the final four months. I have several years of success with this method.
A pitcher doing better in the Strikeability/Hittability ratings than in the fantasy stats is likely to be a good bet to improve in the fantasy measures. In addition, a pitcher struggling in those measures isn't someone you'll want to keep.
The pitchers ranked 2 have been the best in the majors in April and May, and should be good going forward. They're RHPs Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Tim Hudson and Masahiro Tanaka.
At the other end are the pitchers ranked 8. They might not even belong as starters in the majors, let alone on your fantasy team. The seven are RHPs Justin Masterson, Zach Wheeler and Kevin Correia, and LHPs John Danks, Franklin Morales, Robbie Ross (whom the Rangers dropped from their rotation before Memorial Day) and Eric Stults.
What you really want to know from this information is which pitchers are sleepers, the ones who have pitched better than their early results indicate. Also, which pitchers who have had statistical success are due for a fall.
Here are the top 10 lists for sleepers and slumpers, or keepers and dumpers if you prefer, with the statistical categories where you might expect improvement.
Sleepers/keepers: (Rated 2) 1. Tim Hudson (fourth quartile, SO); (Rated 3) 2. Michael Leake (fourth quartile, W and SO); 3. Rick Porcello (fourth quartile, SO); 4. Ian Kennedy (third quartile, ERA and W); 5. Scott Kazmir (third quartile, SO); 6. Michael Wacha (third quartile, W); (Rated 4) 7. Jeff Samardzija (fourth quartile, W); 8. Alfredo Simon (fourth quartile, ERA); 9. John Lackey (third quartile, ERA); 10. Marco Estrada (third quartile, ERA) and Drew Hutchison (third quartile, W). Yordano Ventura would have made the list, but he's an injury concern now. Monitor his recovery.
Also worthy of consideration are RHPs Dillon Gee, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Brandon McCarthy and LHPs Jon Niese and Tyler Skaggs.
Slumpers/dumpers: (Rated 8) 1. Justin Masterson (second quartile, SO); (Rated 7) 2. Tim Lincecum (second quartile, W and SO); 3. Homer Bailey (second quartile, W and SO); 4. Jeremy Guthrie (second quartile, WHIP); 5. Kyle Gibson (second quartile, W); 6. Bronson Arroyo (second quartile, W); 7. Charlie Morton (second quartile, ERA); 8. Edwin Jackson (second quartile, SO); 9. Henderson Alvarez (second quartile, ERA); (Rated 6) 10. Mark Buehrle (first quartile, ERA and W; second quartile, WHIP). Martin Perez would have been in the top 10, but he won't pitch again this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Other likely slumpers include LHPs Madison Bumgarner, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley and Roenis Elias, and RHPs Jordan Lyles, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Chris Archer and R.A. Dickey.
You expected Samardzija to head the sleepers list, didn't you? We heard so much about how he hadn't won even with an ERA barely in triple digits. However, his Strikeability rated just a 3 with a 2.57 K:W ratio. His ERA almost has to go up, along with his WHIP. And even if he pitches well, he's still with the Cubs until he's traded.
This year, I'm also ranking pitchers 1-103, the number of pitchers on an inning-per-game pace that would make them eligible for the ERA title.
Top quarter overall: (Rated 2) 1. Adam Wainwright, 2. Masahiro Tanaka, 3. Johnny Cueto, 4. Jose Fernandez (injured), 5. Tim Hudson, (Rated 3) 6. Felix Hernandez, 7. Zack Greinke, 8. James Shields, 9. Yu Darvish, 10. Jesse Chavez, 11. Max Scherzer, 12. Kyle Lohse, 13. Dallas Keuchel, 14. Jason Hammel, 15. Scott Kazmir, 16. Jon Lester, 17. Julio Teheran, 18. Michael Wacha, 19. Rick Porcello, 20. Yordano Ventura. 21. Ian Kennedy, 22. Michael Leake, (Rated 4) 23. Jered Weaver, 24. Sonny Gray, 25. C.J. Wilson, 26. Tyson Ross.
No real surprises at the top until we get to ... Jesse Chavez at No. 10. He has been pitching very well for Oakland, but Chavez has spent most of his career as a reliever, and we can't really know how he'd hold up during the season's second half.
Also, props to Rick Porcello, who at the time I compared these pitchers had won seven games while walking  just seven. In case you're wondering, there have been three instances in major league history of a 20-game winner with more wins than walks.
Second quartile: 27. John Lackey, 28. Alfredo Simon, 29. Marco Estrada, 30. Drew Hutchison, 31. Garrett Richards, 32. Jeff Samardzija, 33. Stephen Strasburg, 34. Jon Niese, 35. Dillon Gee, 36. Tanner Roark, 37. Tyler Skaggs, 38. Brandon McCarthy, (Rated 5, average) 39. Aaron Harang, 40. Cliff Lee, 41. Corey Kluber, 42. Phil Hughes, 43. David Price, 44. Lance Lynn, 45. Travis Wood, 46. Wily Peralta, 47. Dan Haren, 48. Alex Wood, 49. Ervin Santana, 50. Jorge DeLaRosa, 51. Jason Vargas, 52. Gerrit Cole.
Third quartile: 53. Andrew Cashner, 54. Jose Quintana, 55. Gio Gonzalez, 56. Bud Norris, 57. Chris Young, 58. Hiroki Kuroda, 59. Bartolo Colon, 60. Tom Koehler, 61. Yovani Gallardo, (Rated 6) 62. Madison Bumgarner, 63. Mark Buehrle, 64. Jordan Lyles, 65. Nathan Eovaldi, 66. Shelby Miller, 67. R.A. Dickey, 68. Edinson Volquez, 69. Roenis Elias, 70. A.J. Burnett, 71. Wei-Yin Chen, 72. Chris Archer,  73. Chris Tillman, 74. Wade Miley, 75. Jordan Zimmermann, 76. Matt Garza, 77. Francisco Liriano, 78. Ryan Vogelsong, 79. Kyle Kendrick.
Bottom quarter: 80. Jarred Cosart, (Rated 7) 81. Justin Verlander, 82. Juan Nicasio, 83. Tim Lincecum, 84. Homer Bailey, 85. Martin Perez (injured), 86. Edwin Jackson, 87. Bronson Arroyo, 88. Henderson Alvarez, 89. Charlie Morton, 90. Jeremy Guthrie, 91. Kyle Gibson, 92. Jake Peavy, 93. Roberto Hernandez, 94. Ubaldo Jimenez, 95. Ricky Nolasco, 96. Clay Buchholz, (Rated 8) 97. Justin Masterson, 98. John Danks, 99. Zach Wheeler, 100. Franklin Morales, 101. Robbie Ross, 102. Kevin Correia, 103. Eric Stults.
Keep in mind that these are the poorest among the starters who would qualify in ERA, a group that includes less than 3 1/2 starters per team. So consider that few if any fifth starters, and most fourth starters, don't even qualify for the bottom quarter. You don't want those pitchers.            

Some teams aren't getting the new emphasis on defense

I've written about some teams with position battles at second and third base.
This installment includes a look at some teams with options, or should I say problems, at first base -- and how they're solving those.
The White Sox and Mariners seem willing to go the route of weakening their defense in exchange for the possibility of increased offense. The Pirate no doubt will have their eyes on the waiver wire or trade possibilities.
Chicago signed Cuban 1B Jose Abreu, possibly expecting 1B Paul Konerko to retire. His decision to return for a farewell season created a logjam at first base/DH, with Adam Dunn already there. The proposed solution is to have Dunn play left field. Sox pitchers no doubt are overjoyed.
Seattle's taking a similar tack. 1B Justin Smoak might have saved his position with a strong second half in 2013. But then they traded for 1B/OF Corey Hart, whose outfield days are numbered at best. The Mariners also are working failed C Jesus Montero at first base. So there could be something like Smoak at first, Montero as a shaky DH and Hart as a shaky outfielder in a big outfield. Sure, Seattle has added 2B Robinson Cano to RHP Felix Hernandez and 3B Kyle Seager, but what else is there?
Pirates 1B Gaby Sanchez is making noise about being a full-time player this year. The right-handed batter wasn't very effective in just a platoon role against lefties last season, so how can he really be expected to produce every day. The alternatives or possible platoon players are left-handed batters Travis Ishikawa, who has been found wanting elsewhere, and the unproven Andrew Lambo and Chris McGuiness.
-- Reports say the Red Sox are close to signing LHP Chris Capuano to fill the rotation spot that would have gone to RHP Ryan Dempster except that he decided not to pitch this year. They're interchangeable fifth starter at this stage of their careers, and probably average of below-average among fifth starters.
-- For starters: No surprise, RHP Adam Wainwright will start the opening game for the National League-champion Cardinals.
New Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said he hasn't decided among his wealth of right-handed talent: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez. I'd rank them in that order. If Scherzer couldn't get the Opening Day start after the season he had in 2013, when would he? Verlander is 31, so logic tells us he isn't likely to have another year as good as his glory days. Sanchez can be unhittable; the inconsistent one can also be hittable.
Detroit has decided on a starter for its opening exhibition game Tuesday against Florida Southern College, and its Ver ... no, not Verlander, but rookie RHP Drew VerHagen, who finished last season at Double-A Erie. I saw VerHagen on a few occasions when he was at Rockwall-Heath High School in Texas. He was drafted in the fourth round out of Vanderbilt in 2012.
* * *
Basketball. Team Fresh Prints maintained its 7-1 lead for this week. Friday's games could be the key to protecting that lead or even going ahead in free throw percentage for an 8-0 sweep. It appears that I'll have nine players to my opponent's two. If my starting nine can shoot well at the foul line, they could put a big dent in the .050 by which they trail in free throw percentage. The downside is that a bad shooting night could all but eliminate the chance of leading in free throws and could also drop the field goal percentage behind. The six other counting categories should be all but wrapped up Friday night.

Hot and Not: Wainwright keeps making his case

The players listed here were the major league statistical leaders during the week preceding this final week of the season.
Batting averages are based on 20 at-bats, and ERA and WHIP on seven innings pitched. In most cases, we eliminate batters with an average lower than .280 and pitchers with ERAs above 4.00 from the Hot list. Keep in mind players’ career performance and current-season totals even more than current trends in deciding on whether to keep those players in your lineup.

Hot

Pos. Name, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

1B Joey Votto, Reds 14-25 .560 1-8 0
SS Miguel Tejada, Astros 12-23 .522 2-5 0
1B/3B Jorge Cantu, Marlins 11-23 .478 0-5 0
1B Todd Helton, Rockies 10-21 .476 0-4 0
SS Rafael Furcal, Dodgers 13-28 .464 1-7 1
1B Daric Barton, Athletics 10-22 .455 0-8 0
1B Kendry Morales, Angels 9-20 .450 2-4 1
SS Derek Jeter, Yankees 10-23 .435 0-1 4
OF/2B Eric Patterson, Athletics 9-21 .429 1-4 3
1B Billy Butler, Royals 11-26 .423 3-9 0
1B/3B Chris Davis, Rangers 11-26 .423 1-4 0
OF Ryan Sweeney, Athletics 11-26 .423 0-2 0

This is the second consecutive week on a Hot list for Votto, after a week on the Not list. If you think it’s too late for a hot streak to help a player’s average, change that thinking. Votto raised his average 14 points last week, from .304 to .318, and he has enough plate appearances to qualify for the National League batting title.

Home runs – Butler, Rangers OF Marlon Byrd, Red Sox 1B David Ortiz and Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez 3. There’s also speculation that there might be a new A-Rod Jr. or third-generation hottie on the way.

RBI – Phillies 1B Ryan Howard 14; Byrd 11; Ortiz 10; Butler and Rangers OF David Murphy 9.

Stolen bases – Rangers OF Julio Borbon, Yankees SS Derek Jeter and Twins 2B/3B/SS Nick Pinto 4; Patterson, Rodriguez, Mets 2B Luis Castillo and Padres OF Tony Gwynne 3.

Runs – Votto 11; Twins SS Orlando Cabrera, Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez, Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill and Braves 2B/1B/3B Martin Prado 9.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP Carlos Zambrano, Cubs 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.33 8:1
RHP Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.78 9:0
RHP Kevin Correia, Padres 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.78 7:1
RHP Anibal Sanchez, Marlins 8.0 0.00 1-0 0.50 7:2
LHP C.C. Sabathia, Yankees 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.43 8:2
RHP Nick Blackburn, Twins 7.0 0.00 1-0 1.14 6:0
RHP Jake Peavy, White Sox 7.0 0.00 1-0 1.14 8:2
LHP John Lannan, Nationals 7.0 0.00 0-1 1.29 6:3
RHP Zack Greinke, Royals 13.0 0.69 2-0 1.08 13:5
RHP Javier Vazquez, Braves 9.0 1.00 1-0 0.44 7:1

Sabathia and Vazquez have been on this list in each of the last two weeks.

Wins – Greinke, Phillies RHP Joe Blanton, Cubs LHP Tom Gorzelanny, Rangers RHP Kevin Millwood and Angels LHP Joe Saunders 2.

Saves – Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera 4-for-4; Royals RHP Joakim Soria and Braves RHP Rafael Soriano 3-for-3; Angels LHP Brian Fuentes, Brewers RHP Trevor Hoffman, Twins RHP Joe Nathan, and Astros RHP Jose Valverde 2-for-2. This is the third consecutive week for Nathan on this list, and the second for Hoffman.

WHIP – Zambrano 0.33; Sabathia 0.43; Vazquez 0:44; Sanchez 0.55; Mets RHP Nelson Figueroa, Braves RHP Tommy Hanson, Marlins RHP Ricky Nolasco and Brewers LHP Manny Parra 0.71.

Strikeout/walk ratio (at least 10 Ks and a 2.5:1 ratio) –.Brewers LHP Chris Narveson 10:0; Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright 11:1; Mariners RHP Felix Hernandez and Tigers RHP Justin Verlander 11:2; Yankees RHP A.J. Burnett 11:3; Gorzelanny 14:4; Greinke 13:5. Wainwright continues to be a frequent visitor to the Hot list, including the last three weeks.

* * *

Not

Pos. Player, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

OF Andre Ethier, Dodgers 1-21 .048 0-3 0
OF Jayson Werth, Phillies 2-24 .083 0-4 1
SS Ian Desmond, Nationals 2-20 .100 0-1 0
3B/C/OF Brandon Inge, Tigers 3-25 .120 0-3 0
OF Jason Kubel, Twins 3-22 .136 1-3 0
3B David Wright, Mets 3-21 .143 0-1 0
C A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox 3-21 .143 0-1 0
OF Torii Hunter, Angels 4-27 .148 0-1 0
OF Nate McLouth, Braves 4-27 .148 0-2 0
SS Everth Cabrera, Padres 5-31 .161 0-1 0

The week’s hitless wonders were Yankees C Jose Molina and Athletics C Landon Powell 0-for-12 and Mets C Josh Thole 0-for-10.

Walk/strikeout ratio (six or more strikeouts) – Brewers OF Mike Cameron 1:10; Cabrera 2:11 and Inge 2:11; Athletics OF Jack Cust 2:10; Angels OF Bobby Abreu 4:10; Werth 4:11.

Caught stealing – Rangers SS Elvis Andrus 4-for-6.

The following pitchers made two starts last week, doubly damaging their real and fantasy teams.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP David Bush, Brewers 5.2 15.88 0-2 3.18 7:5
RHP Chris Tillman, Orioles 7.0 12.86 0-2 2.29 7:4
LHP Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies 7.1 11.05 1-0 2.18 10:6
RHP Edgar Gonzalez, Athletics 8.1 10.80 0-2 2.28 4:3
RHP Edward Mujica, Padres 8.0 10.13 0-1 2.38 8:3
LHP Lenny DiNardo, Royals 10.0 9.90 0-1 2.70 2:9
RHP Livan Hernandez, Nationals 10.0 9.90 0-1 1.90 2:5
RHP Braden Looper, Brewers 10.0 9.00 0-1 1.80 4:1
LHP Barry Zito, Giants 8.1 7.56 0-1 2.40 7:8
LHP Pat Misch, Mets 10.1 6.97 1-1 1.84 3:4

Some of these are pitchers failing auditions to be in a major league rotation next season.

De La Rosa fell from the Hot list a week earlier.

Losses – Bush, Gonzalez, Tillman and Red Sox RHP Paul Byrd 2.

Blown saves – Mariners RHP Mark Lowe 1-for-3.

Cardinals' pitchers should thrive

This week, there won’t be teams with a schedule advantage so much as teams with a disadvantage.

Twenty of the 30 major league teams are scheduled to play seven games, with the other 10 limited to six games. The difference is more pronounced in the National League, where just four teams – the Diamondbacks, Braves, Marlins and Pirates – would play six. In the American League, eight teams are scheduled to play every day with just the Indians, Tigers, Angels, Twins, Rays and Blue Jays playing six times.

Six teams – the Orioles and Rangers in the AL; the Reds, Mets, Cardinals and Giants in the NL – would play seven games at homes.

In the AL, that should mean a slight overall advantage for hitters over pitchers. Both stadiums in use all week favor hitters significantly. That effect is watered down some because the two teams scheduled to play all six of their games at home play in an extreme pitchers’ park at Minnesota and a park at Tampa Bay that somewhat favors pitchers.

Another of the majors’ best hitters’ parks is at Cincinnati, and San Francisco’s has been somewhat hitter friendly. But both St. Louis and Shea Stadium are considered among the majors’ best pitchers’ parks, and Florida, where the Marlins are scheduled for six games, also favors pitchers.

Pitchers scheduled to start at home twice this week are RHPs Jason Berken, James Shields, Tommy Hunter, Vicente Padilla, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Tim Lincecum, and LHPs Rich Hill, Glen Perkins, Oliver Perez and Barry Zito. My highest recommendations are Nolasco, Carpenter, Wainwright and Lincecum, with Shields and Zito as live longshots. The Cardinals’ pitchers also will be helped by an improved lineup following their trade for LF Matt Holliday.