Pitching moves don't guarantee anything to Sox

Looking at the big splash -- or at least the overblown coverage -- about Boston's new pitching acquisitions. 

The article breathlessly adds that they're also looking at RHPs James Shields and Max Scherzer and just about every other available pitcher. The implication is that they might have about a 9-man All-Star rotation. Probably won't lose a game, except occasionally to the Yankees. 

I'm thinking that to acquire a star pitcher in a trade, the Sox would have to trade at least one from the group of RHPs Justin Masterson and Rick Porcello and LHP Wade Miley, or that if they sign a free agent pitcher or two, to fill other holes they'd have to trade one of the pitchers they've acquired.

Here's some reality: After the All-Star break, those three pitchers were a combined 9-17. I haven't done the math, but I'm pretty sure their combined ERA was well above the league average. Porcello was 3-8, 3.48. Miley 3-6, 4.60. Masterson was 3-3, but with an awesome 7.04 ERA. 

If the plan is to improve the pitching incrementally, and they're able to pull it off, that should work if they have Shields and Scherzer in the rotation instead of Masterson and Miley, plus another above-average infielder or center fielder who could hit. But if 2/5 of the rotation is Masterson and Miley, and they still have holes in their lineup, the Sox wouldn't be a major threat.

I think Porcello should be OK, but his ERA could take a hit pitching in Boston. I saw him last season before he slumped. He was masterful in shutting out the Rangers. I asked him if he was a better pitcher than he'd been in the past. He looked at me, hesitated and said, "That's for you guys to say." I was pretty sure he was at that time, not so sure now and not too sure what happened to him down the stretch.

Wainwright's No. 1, but look who's No. 10 -- for now

Here you'll find my annual in-season suggestions of pitchers to keep and drop.
On the Memorial Day weekend, I measure two skills -- Strikeability, based on strikeout:walk ratio, and Hittability, based on opponents' batting average.
Dividing starting pitchers into four groups, top to bottom, in each category leads to numerical ratings ranging from 2 (for those in the top quarter in both K/W and BA) to 8 (for those in the bottom quarter of each).
The next step is to compare those ratings with who's doing well in the basic starting pitching fantasy categories -- Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
We've been through nearly two months of the season. In most cases, that's enough to gauge who will do well during the final four months. I have several years of success with this method.
A pitcher doing better in the Strikeability/Hittability ratings than in the fantasy stats is likely to be a good bet to improve in the fantasy measures. In addition, a pitcher struggling in those measures isn't someone you'll want to keep.
The pitchers ranked 2 have been the best in the majors in April and May, and should be good going forward. They're RHPs Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Tim Hudson and Masahiro Tanaka.
At the other end are the pitchers ranked 8. They might not even belong as starters in the majors, let alone on your fantasy team. The seven are RHPs Justin Masterson, Zach Wheeler and Kevin Correia, and LHPs John Danks, Franklin Morales, Robbie Ross (whom the Rangers dropped from their rotation before Memorial Day) and Eric Stults.
What you really want to know from this information is which pitchers are sleepers, the ones who have pitched better than their early results indicate. Also, which pitchers who have had statistical success are due for a fall.
Here are the top 10 lists for sleepers and slumpers, or keepers and dumpers if you prefer, with the statistical categories where you might expect improvement.
Sleepers/keepers: (Rated 2) 1. Tim Hudson (fourth quartile, SO); (Rated 3) 2. Michael Leake (fourth quartile, W and SO); 3. Rick Porcello (fourth quartile, SO); 4. Ian Kennedy (third quartile, ERA and W); 5. Scott Kazmir (third quartile, SO); 6. Michael Wacha (third quartile, W); (Rated 4) 7. Jeff Samardzija (fourth quartile, W); 8. Alfredo Simon (fourth quartile, ERA); 9. John Lackey (third quartile, ERA); 10. Marco Estrada (third quartile, ERA) and Drew Hutchison (third quartile, W). Yordano Ventura would have made the list, but he's an injury concern now. Monitor his recovery.
Also worthy of consideration are RHPs Dillon Gee, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Brandon McCarthy and LHPs Jon Niese and Tyler Skaggs.
Slumpers/dumpers: (Rated 8) 1. Justin Masterson (second quartile, SO); (Rated 7) 2. Tim Lincecum (second quartile, W and SO); 3. Homer Bailey (second quartile, W and SO); 4. Jeremy Guthrie (second quartile, WHIP); 5. Kyle Gibson (second quartile, W); 6. Bronson Arroyo (second quartile, W); 7. Charlie Morton (second quartile, ERA); 8. Edwin Jackson (second quartile, SO); 9. Henderson Alvarez (second quartile, ERA); (Rated 6) 10. Mark Buehrle (first quartile, ERA and W; second quartile, WHIP). Martin Perez would have been in the top 10, but he won't pitch again this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Other likely slumpers include LHPs Madison Bumgarner, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley and Roenis Elias, and RHPs Jordan Lyles, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Chris Archer and R.A. Dickey.
You expected Samardzija to head the sleepers list, didn't you? We heard so much about how he hadn't won even with an ERA barely in triple digits. However, his Strikeability rated just a 3 with a 2.57 K:W ratio. His ERA almost has to go up, along with his WHIP. And even if he pitches well, he's still with the Cubs until he's traded.
This year, I'm also ranking pitchers 1-103, the number of pitchers on an inning-per-game pace that would make them eligible for the ERA title.
Top quarter overall: (Rated 2) 1. Adam Wainwright, 2. Masahiro Tanaka, 3. Johnny Cueto, 4. Jose Fernandez (injured), 5. Tim Hudson, (Rated 3) 6. Felix Hernandez, 7. Zack Greinke, 8. James Shields, 9. Yu Darvish, 10. Jesse Chavez, 11. Max Scherzer, 12. Kyle Lohse, 13. Dallas Keuchel, 14. Jason Hammel, 15. Scott Kazmir, 16. Jon Lester, 17. Julio Teheran, 18. Michael Wacha, 19. Rick Porcello, 20. Yordano Ventura. 21. Ian Kennedy, 22. Michael Leake, (Rated 4) 23. Jered Weaver, 24. Sonny Gray, 25. C.J. Wilson, 26. Tyson Ross.
No real surprises at the top until we get to ... Jesse Chavez at No. 10. He has been pitching very well for Oakland, but Chavez has spent most of his career as a reliever, and we can't really know how he'd hold up during the season's second half.
Also, props to Rick Porcello, who at the time I compared these pitchers had won seven games while walking  just seven. In case you're wondering, there have been three instances in major league history of a 20-game winner with more wins than walks.
Second quartile: 27. John Lackey, 28. Alfredo Simon, 29. Marco Estrada, 30. Drew Hutchison, 31. Garrett Richards, 32. Jeff Samardzija, 33. Stephen Strasburg, 34. Jon Niese, 35. Dillon Gee, 36. Tanner Roark, 37. Tyler Skaggs, 38. Brandon McCarthy, (Rated 5, average) 39. Aaron Harang, 40. Cliff Lee, 41. Corey Kluber, 42. Phil Hughes, 43. David Price, 44. Lance Lynn, 45. Travis Wood, 46. Wily Peralta, 47. Dan Haren, 48. Alex Wood, 49. Ervin Santana, 50. Jorge DeLaRosa, 51. Jason Vargas, 52. Gerrit Cole.
Third quartile: 53. Andrew Cashner, 54. Jose Quintana, 55. Gio Gonzalez, 56. Bud Norris, 57. Chris Young, 58. Hiroki Kuroda, 59. Bartolo Colon, 60. Tom Koehler, 61. Yovani Gallardo, (Rated 6) 62. Madison Bumgarner, 63. Mark Buehrle, 64. Jordan Lyles, 65. Nathan Eovaldi, 66. Shelby Miller, 67. R.A. Dickey, 68. Edinson Volquez, 69. Roenis Elias, 70. A.J. Burnett, 71. Wei-Yin Chen, 72. Chris Archer,  73. Chris Tillman, 74. Wade Miley, 75. Jordan Zimmermann, 76. Matt Garza, 77. Francisco Liriano, 78. Ryan Vogelsong, 79. Kyle Kendrick.
Bottom quarter: 80. Jarred Cosart, (Rated 7) 81. Justin Verlander, 82. Juan Nicasio, 83. Tim Lincecum, 84. Homer Bailey, 85. Martin Perez (injured), 86. Edwin Jackson, 87. Bronson Arroyo, 88. Henderson Alvarez, 89. Charlie Morton, 90. Jeremy Guthrie, 91. Kyle Gibson, 92. Jake Peavy, 93. Roberto Hernandez, 94. Ubaldo Jimenez, 95. Ricky Nolasco, 96. Clay Buchholz, (Rated 8) 97. Justin Masterson, 98. John Danks, 99. Zach Wheeler, 100. Franklin Morales, 101. Robbie Ross, 102. Kevin Correia, 103. Eric Stults.
Keep in mind that these are the poorest among the starters who would qualify in ERA, a group that includes less than 3 1/2 starters per team. So consider that few if any fifth starters, and most fourth starters, don't even qualify for the bottom quarter. You don't want those pitchers.            

Maier, Porcello have best springs; Maxwell, Garcia struggle

On Mondays this season, we will give you a Weekend Update/Hot and Not, to tell you what has been going on and what to expect that to mean going forward.
This week’s Email indicates who was hot and who struggled during spring training.
We usually begin compiling this information as soon as possible after the last game on Sunday. That can get the information to you most weeks before Monday’s games are played. Patriots Day is more difficulty with the Monday morning start.
We don’t give you just statistics about what happened the previous week. We’ll tell you who has been hot (or not) for a longer term, which players are having a yo-yo, up-and-down season and which hot journeymen are likely to go back where they came from. There’s nothing more frustrating than having a player on your roster waiting for him to produce, taking him out of the starting lineup and watching him produce when it doesn’t count for you, then putting him back in the lineup in time for him to bat .050 with no homers, RBI or stolen bases – or two losses and a 12.00 ERA. You get the picture.
Later in the week, we’ll give you information on how you can subscribe for five (or more)-times-a-week themed Emails during the regular season. Let us know of your interest and what you’d like to see by Emailing lary@fantasybaseballscout.com.
Thanks for your continuing interest in and support of Fantasy Baseball Scout.
Hot
The spring training qualifying numbers for batters are 50 at-bats for batting average and at least a .280 batting average in the other categories. We didn’t include Sunday’s Mariners-Giants exhibition.
Pos. Name, Team H-AB BA HR-RBI SB
OF Mitch Maier, Royals 28-59 .475 3-19 0
SS/2B Mike Aviles, Royals 24-51 .471 0-8 1
OF Tyler Colvin, Cubs 36-77 .468 2-8 2
2B Sean Rodriguez, Rays 39-63 .460 6-17 1
2B Alberto Callaspo, Royals 22-50 .440 0-8 0
3B/OF Jose Bautista, Jays 25-57 .439 5-11 2
OF Aaron Rowand, Giants 24-55 .436 1-10 1
OF Jeremy Reed, Jays 22-51 .431 0-10 3
3B Michael Young, Rangers 27-63 .429 1-9 0
OF Kyle Blanks, Padres 24-59 .407 2-16 3
OF/1B Michael Cuddyer, Twins 24-59 .407 3-11 0
OF Shin-soo Choo, Indians 22-56 .393 3-16 2
3B Ryan Zimmerman, Nats 22-56 .393 6-13 0
OF Josh Reddick, Red Sox 23-59 .390 2-9 0
1B/3B Kevin Youkilis, R.Sox 21-54 .389 2-8 0
OF Justin Upton, D-backs 22-57 .386 6-20 3
1B Troy Glaus, Braves 20-52 .385 0-11 0
C George Kottaras, Brewers 20-52 .385 3-11 1
2B/1B Martin Prado, Braves 23-60 .383 2-9 0
2B Jonathan Herrera, Rockies 21-55 .382 0-8 1
1B Kendry Morales, Angels 24-63 .381 3-18 0
Of 254 players who had 50-plus at-bats, 21 had averages better than .380 and 21 had marks below .200.
Maier and Colvin rode strong springs to major league jobs.
Sean Rodriguez had one of the best springs of any player, but I’m still not convinced that would translate into a big regular season for him. If he struggles, the Rays have SS Reid Brignac and 2B/OF Ben Zobrist as fall-back positions.
We’ve been all over Bautista and Choo in these emails.
There isn’t room for Reddick in Boston, but he solidified his status as a prospect.
Glaus’ high average is a plus, but if he doesn’t show more power he’s not much of an improvement for Atlanta at first base. The Braves don’t want him running the bases; they want him clearing them. Prado, by the way, is one of manager Bobby Cox’s favorites, along with utility man Omar Infante.
Herrera was one of Colorado’s rookies of the year in their camp. Watch out, Clint Barmes.
Home runs – Astros 3B Chris Johnson 8; Rodriguez, Upton, Zimmerman, Giants OF John Bowker, Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill, Angels C Mike Napoli and Pirates OF/2B Delwyn Young 6; Bautista, Rangers OF Nelson Cruz, Nationals 1B Brad Eldred and OF Josh Willingham, Reds OFs Jonny Gomes and Drew Stubbs, Orioles OF Adam Jones, Rays 3B Evan Longoria, Cardinals OFs Ryan Ludwick and Colby Rasmus, and Mets 3B David Wright 5.
RBI – Padres 3B/OF Chase Headley 23; Bowker and Johnson 22; Cruz and Upton 20; Maier 19; Brignac, Colvin, Morales, Young and Astros OF Hunter Pence 18.
News flash! Bowker drove in his 23rd run of the spring today in San Francisco’s rain-shortened 7-1 loss to Seattle.
Stolen bases – Brewers OF Carlos Gomez 11; Angels OF Peter Bourjos and Padres OFs Luis Durango and Will Venable 9; Nationals OF Nyjer Morgan 8; Padres OF Aaron Cunningham and Mariners OF Ichiro Suzuki 7; Astros OF Michael Bourn, Eric Bruntlett, Nationals SS Ian Desmond, Cardinals SS/2B Felipe Lopez, Athletics SS Cliff Pennington, White Sox OF Juan Pierre, Brewers OF Adam Stern and Giants OF/2B Eugenio Velez 6.
Runs – Rodriguez 20; Rangers OF Pedro Borbon and Tigers OF Austin Jackson 18; Blanks and Astros 2B Kazuo Matsui 17; Aviles, Bautista, Colvin, Cruz, Venable and Rangers OF Josh Hamilton 16.
Hand Name, Team IP W-L ERA WHIP K:W
RHP Rick Porcello, Tigers 22.1 1-1 1.21 0.72 10:3
RHP John Lackey, Red Sox 20.0 1-1 1.35 0.90 8:1
RHP Fausto Carmona, Indians 26.0 3-0 1.38 0.65 12:2
RHP Kyle Kendrick, Phillies 24.2 1-1 1.46 0.77 10:5
LHP Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies 30.0 3-1 1.50 1.07 24:7
RHP Tim Hudson, Braves 24.0 3-2 1.50 1.25 20:4
RHP Rodrigo Lopez, D-backs 22.0 1-0 1.64 0.91 16:4
RHP Ricky Nolasco, Marlins 25.1 3-0 1.78 0.71 21:1
LHP Dana Eveland, Jays 25.0 0-1 1.80 1.28 21:6
RHP Kevin Slowey, Twins 27.2 4-0 1.95 0.90 20:4
LHP Wade LeBlanc, Padres 23.0 4-0 1.96 0.96 17:3
Eighty-four pitchers worked at least 20 spring innings. Eleven had ERAs below 2.00; 13 were at 6.00 or higher.
From the group above, we’ve been high on Carmona, De La Rosa, Nolasco and Slowey.
Wins – LeBlanc, Slowey, Red Sox RHP Tim Wakefield and Cubs RHP Randy Wells 4; Carmona, De La Rosa, Hudson, Nolasco, Giants LHPs Jeremy Affeldt and Jonathan Sanchez, and RHP Todd Wellemeyer, Brewers LHP Zach Braddock, Rangers RHP Scott Feldman, Rockies RHP Ubaldo Jimenez, Diamondbacks RHP Ian Kennedy, Padres RHP Mat Latos, Cardinals RHP Kyle Lohse, Rays RHP Jeff Niemann, Blue Jays LHP Ricky Romero and Indians RHP Jamey Wright 3.
Wins are even more circumstantial during spring training than they are during the regular season. We’re on record as liking Latos better than LeBlanc.
Saves –Tigers RHP Robbie Weinhardt 4-for-6; Nationals LHP Jesse English 3-3; Braddock, Phillies RHP Danys Baez, Mariners RHP Jesus Colome, Cubs LHP John Grabow, Dodgers RHPs Javy Guerra and Russ Ortiz, Blue Jays LHP Rommie Lewis, Rangers RHP Dustin Nippert, Tigers RHP Josh Rainwater, Giants RHPs Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson, Astros RHP Chris Sampson and Rays RHP Andy Sonnanstine.
Most of those pitchers have no more chance than you do of saving a game in the majors this year. The obvious exception is Wilson. Possibilities for some saves are English, Baez, Colome, Grabow, Romo and Sampson. The Tigers have used spring training as a proving ground for young relievers such as Weinhardt and Rainwater. Two years ago, RHP Freddy Dolsi received good exposure in Florida.
K:W ratio (at least 20 strikeouts) – Nolasco 21:1; Niemann 24:3; Orioles LHP Brian Matusz 21:3; Orioles RHP David Hernandez 20:3; Twins LHP Francisco Liriano 30:5; Dodgers RHP Ramon Ortiz 22:4; Hudson and Slowey 20:4; Red Sox RHP Josh Beckett 22:5; Cardinals LHP Jaime Garcia 20:5; Rangers LHP C.J. Wilson 22:6; Cubs RHP Ryan Dempster 25:7; Eveland 21:6; De La Rosa 24:7; Cubs RHP Carlos Marmol 20:7.
Improved control and lower pitch counts were instrumental in allowing Garcia and Wilson to win sports in their team’s rotation.
Not
Pos. Name, Team H-AB BA HR-RBI SB
OF Jason Maxwell, Nationals 5-50 .100 1-4 4
OF Nate McLouth, Braves 6-51 .118 1-4 3
OF Raul Ibanez, Phillies 7-54 .130 1-3 0
2B Alexi Casilla, Twins 7-52 .135 0-2 1
OF/1B Marcus Thames, Yanks 7-52 .135 2-2 0
3B/OF Jake Fox, Athletics 8-53 .151 3-9 0
3B Josh Fields, Royals 8-51 .157 1-12 0
3B Ryan Rohlinger, Giants 9-57 .158 0-6 1
1B Justin Morneau, Twins 8-50 .160 2-8 0
OF Jody Gerut, Brewers 10-59 .169 1-11 2
SS Cesar Izturis, Orioles 9-53 .170 0-4 1
OF Corey Hart, Brewers 11-64 .172 2-7 0
1B Carlos Pena, Rays 9-51 .176 2-7 0
1B/3B Robb Quinlan, Angels 9-51 .176 0-4 1
C Miguel Montero, D-backs 9-50 .180 0-6 0
2B Skip Schumaker, Cards 14-77 .182 0-4 1
3B/2B Ryan Roberts, D-backs 10-54 .185 2-6 0
1B/OF Daniel Murphy, Mets 10-51 .196 2-8 1
OF Jeff Francoeur, Mets 12-61 .197 2-6 1
2B Dan Uggla, Marlins 12-61 .197 2-7 0
3B/2B Casey McGehee, Brewers 13-66 .197 1-7 0
Caught stealing – Mariners 3B/2B Chone Figgins 3-for-8; Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen 3-7; Diamondbacks SS Stephen Drew 1-4; Rangers 2B Joaquin Arias and Indians OF Michael Brantley 2-5; Rangers OF Julio Borbon and Orioles SS Justin Turner 3-6; Angels SS Erick Aybar 5-8; Durango 9-12.
K:W ratio (20 strikeouts): Thames 21:2; Rangers 1B Chris Davis 22:3; Rangers C Taylor Teagarden 21:3; Maxwell 21:9; Phillies 1B Ryan Howard 20:8; Athletics OF Jack Cust 20:9; Brewers 2B Rickie Weeks 20:10.
Oakland has designated Cust for assignment. Weeks either was grossly overrated coming out of Southern University or has been a gigantic disappointment. I’m asked about him frequently, and I don’t remember recommending him over anyone.
Hand Name, Team IP W-L ERA WHIP K:W
RHP Freddy Garcia, W.Sox 21.2 1-2 10.38 2.03 13:4
RHP Jason Marquis, Nats 20.2 2-2 9.15 2.03 8:10
RHP Rich Harden, Rangers 22.1 1-3 8.87 1.88 21:15
RHP Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles 20.2 0-4 7.40 1.98 16:13
RHP Wade Davis, Rays 21.1 3-1 7.17 2.11 17:14
RHP Ian Snell, Mariners 24.0 1-4 7.13 1.42 18:3
RHP Anibal Sanchez, Marlins 24.0 1-3 6.38 1.75 19:12
LHP Barry Zito, Giants 22.2 0-2 6.35 1.81 16:8
LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith, Mariners 23.0 0-2 6.26 1.61 16:3
RHP Mike Pelfrey, Mets 26.1 0-4 6.15 1.48 16:2
RHP Adam Wainwright, Cards 22.0 0-2 6.14 1.59 20:6
LHP Marc Rzepczynski, Jays 20.2 0-2 6.10 1.60 14:8
LHP Cole Hamels, Phillies 24.0 1-1 6.00 1.46 18:6
Losses – Guthrie, Pelfrey, Snell, Reds RHP Bronson Arroyo, Yankees RHP Phil Hughes, Nationals RHP Garrett Mock and Astros LHP Wandy Rodriguez.
Blown saves – Reds RHP Jared Burton and Phillies RHP Jose Contreras 0-for-3.
What spring training means for teams
The impact is pretty much what teams make of it.
No doubt the Athletics, Mariners and Rangers – who had three of the four worst spring records among American League teams – are pointing to last year’s National League, where the Cardinals were the only team that finished the spring ahead of the pack and went on to reach the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Rays, Indians, Angels and Tigers, who would be this year’s playoff teams if they qualified on the basis of spring-training records, are using the examples of last year’s Angels, Yankees and Twins. Those teams led their divisions in exhibition games and in the regular season. The fourth AL playoff team, the Red Sox, finished .006 behind Minnesota. The Rangers would have been the wild card if they had held the place where they finished in the spring.
The National League leaders this spring were the Giants in the West, braves in the East, Cubs in the Central and Padres as the wild card. The thinking this spring has been that the AL West will be better, or at least more competitive, this season than it has been in years. Yet the Angels topped those four teams with a mediocre 13-15 record. It’s still a safe bet to think the AL West would be more competitive during this year’s postseason.