This post is primarily a list. It includes the rankings of the 109 pitchers who, as of the Memorial Day weekend, were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title.
The pitchers are divided into four relatively equal groups, or quartiles, in each of two statistics. Those measures are opponents' batting average (Hittability, or Hit) and strikeout:walk ratio (Strikeability, or Strike). The pitchers are assigned a number from 1 (top quartile) to 4 (bottom quartile). Those numbers are added for the total rating.
Thus, the best overall rating is 2 (1 in Hit plus 1 in Strike equals 2), and the worst is 8 (4+4=8).
The lists follow.
Above average
2
(1 Hit, 1 Strike)
Jason Hammel
Max Scherzer
Matt Harvey
Johnny Cueto
Jake Odorizzi
Felix Hernandez
Zack Greinke
3
(1 Hit, 2 Strike)
Madison Bumgarner
James Shields
Clayton Kershaw
Gerrit Cole
Jake Arrieta
Jacob deGrom
Rubby De La Rosa
(2 Hit, 1 Strike)
Chris Archer
Aaron Harang
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Sanchez
Sonny Gray
Cole Hamels
4
(1 Hit, 3 Strike)
Bartolo Colon
Michael Pineda
Corey Kluber
Danny Salazar
Carlos Carrasco
Matt Shoemaker
Collin McHugh
David Price
Kyle Hendricks
Jeff Samardzija
(2 Hit, 2 Strike)
Chris Sale
Dan Haren
J.A. Happ
Colby Lewis
A.J. Burnett
(3 Hit, 1 Strike)
Wei-Yin Chen
Shelby Miller
Chase Anderson
Michael Wacha
Francisco Liriano
Jimmy Nelson
Trevor Bauer
Dallas Keuchel
Miguel Gonzalez
Average
5
(1 Hit, 4 Strike)
Phil Hughes
Trevor May
C.C. Sabathia
(2 Hit, 3 Strike)
Clay Buchholz
Andrew Cashner
Lance Lynn
Kyle Lohse
Jon Lester
Jordan Zimmermann
Jered Weaver
Chris Heston
Jose Quintana
Rick Porcello
(3 Hit, 2 Strike)
C.J. Wilson
Scott Kazmir
John Lackey
Alfredo Simon
Shane Greene
Joe Kelly
Carlos Martinez
Tyson Ross
(4 Hit, 1 Strike)
Hector Santiago
Nathan Karns
Edinson Volquez
Garrett Richards
Anthony DeSclafani
Tim Lincecum
Below average
6
(2 Hit, 4 Strike)
Josh Collmenter
Stephen Strasburg
Brett Anderson
Mike Fiers
Scott Feldman
Nathan Eovaldi
(3 Hit, 3 Strike)
Yordano Ventura
Yovani Gallardo
(4 Hit, 2 Strike)
Tom Koehler
James Paxton
Nick Martinez
Mike Leake
Ryan Vogelsong
R.A. Dickey
Anibal Sanchez
7
(3 Hit, 4 Strike)
Drew Hutchison
Wily Peralta
Julio Teheran
Gio Gonzalez
Jerome Williams
Eric Stults
Jeff Locke
Jon Niese
(4 Hit, 3 Strike)
John Danks
Roberto Hernandez
Matt Garza
Adam Warren
Mike Pelfrey
Kyle Gibson
8
(4 Hit, 4 Strike)
Jeremy Hellickson
Alex Wood
Mark Buehrle
Tim Hudson
Kyle Kendrick
Jordan Lyles
Jeremy Guthrie
Chris Tillman
Kyle Lobstein
If you look closely at individual pitchers on the list, you can get some idea why some of them are doing well this season or why they aren't.
For example, look at C.C. Sabathia on the list of average pitchers rated 5. Why is he just an average pitcher, when he once was one of the majors' best. It's right there in his rankings. He's still difficult to hit, still in the first quartile. But he's in the 4 (bottom) group in Strikeability. That can mean he's having control problems, but it also could indicate that he's no longer able to put batters away by striking them out.
A note on Jeremy Guthrie: He ranked this badly even before giving up 11 runs in a start against the Yankees.
Also, I was listening on Sirius XM radio to a Twins game started by Kyle Gibson. During the pregame show, Minnesota's announcers were going on about his ERA and the wins he'd provided. I was thinking, without being able to look at my rankings, that he was pretty low in the Hittability/Strikeability combo. You'll see him on the 7 list. That portends struggles for him during the remainder of the season. Struggles the team's broadcasters never saw coming.
I'll have another post about what the collective individual rankings might mean in the pennant races. And this weekend, I intend to come up with similar rankings for batters, and what those might mean for them and their team.
Saturday, June 6, 2015
Pitchers you should pick up, others you should avoid
Every year on the Memorial Day weekend, I study which pitchers are likely to improve their results based on two metrics that show how well they have been pitching. At the same time, I come up with a list of pitchers whose performance is likely to fall off during the final two-thirds of the season.
Some of the pithcers on the way up are pretty obvious. Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber weren't winning early. But they are Cy Young Award winners. And the metrics I use -- opponents' batting average, or Hittability, and strikeout:walk ratio, or Strikeability -- showed that both were pitching well during April and May.
In the study, I included the 109 pitchers who at that point were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title (1 inning per team game). I compared their Hittability and Strikeability ratings with their standing in strikeouts and wins. Pitchers ranking high in combined Hittability and Strikeability but low in the counting stats are likely to be rewarded with better results going forward.
Others on the good list are Jimmy Nelson, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, Chase Anderson and Michael Wacha.
If any of those pitchers are a product of a small sample size or luck, rather than talent, I'd suggest Nelson, Anderson and possibly Sanchez. The others all have a track record.
There are just two pitchers I would expect to fall this season. Usually, there are seven or eight pitchers, sometimes even more on the bad list. This year's players due for a fall are Mark Buehrle and Mike Fiers. Buehrle was easy to see coming. In recent years, he has started fast and finished poorly. I remember telling someone it was OK to draft him, but he should be traded by midseason or the first sign that he was faltering.
In my rankings, I divide players into four groups as equal as possible, based on where they stand in each category. Buehrle began the year as one of the majors' biggest winners, even though he ranked in the bottom quarter in both Hittability and Strikeability. That made him not only an obvious candidate to fade, but also one of nine pitchers who should be replaced in the rotation as soon as someone better could be found.
There are seven pitchers in the top one-fourth in both Hittability and Strikeability. They are also good bets for success between now and October: Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer (another Cy Young Award winner), Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi, Felix Hernandez (Cy!) and Zack Greinke. The biggest surprises on that list are Hammel and Odorizzi, who is one of the reasons why the Rays still are contending in the American League East.
They are players you should seek to acquire in your fantasy leagues, if you don't already have them.
Pitchers to avoid or to dump, in addition to Buehrle, are Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Tim Hudson, Kyle Kendrick, Jordan Lyles, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman and Kyle Lobstein.
Hellickson has been at the top of the Hittability and Strikeability lists in years past. I'd suggest that he and Tillman might have previously undisclosed injuries. Hudson, Guthrie and Buehrle may simply be at the end of the line.
I'll have more posts on my Hittability/Strikeability ratings, and how they can be used to predict future performance.
Some of the pithcers on the way up are pretty obvious. Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber weren't winning early. But they are Cy Young Award winners. And the metrics I use -- opponents' batting average, or Hittability, and strikeout:walk ratio, or Strikeability -- showed that both were pitching well during April and May.
In the study, I included the 109 pitchers who at that point were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title (1 inning per team game). I compared their Hittability and Strikeability ratings with their standing in strikeouts and wins. Pitchers ranking high in combined Hittability and Strikeability but low in the counting stats are likely to be rewarded with better results going forward.
Others on the good list are Jimmy Nelson, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, Chase Anderson and Michael Wacha.
If any of those pitchers are a product of a small sample size or luck, rather than talent, I'd suggest Nelson, Anderson and possibly Sanchez. The others all have a track record.
There are just two pitchers I would expect to fall this season. Usually, there are seven or eight pitchers, sometimes even more on the bad list. This year's players due for a fall are Mark Buehrle and Mike Fiers. Buehrle was easy to see coming. In recent years, he has started fast and finished poorly. I remember telling someone it was OK to draft him, but he should be traded by midseason or the first sign that he was faltering.
In my rankings, I divide players into four groups as equal as possible, based on where they stand in each category. Buehrle began the year as one of the majors' biggest winners, even though he ranked in the bottom quarter in both Hittability and Strikeability. That made him not only an obvious candidate to fade, but also one of nine pitchers who should be replaced in the rotation as soon as someone better could be found.
There are seven pitchers in the top one-fourth in both Hittability and Strikeability. They are also good bets for success between now and October: Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer (another Cy Young Award winner), Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi, Felix Hernandez (Cy!) and Zack Greinke. The biggest surprises on that list are Hammel and Odorizzi, who is one of the reasons why the Rays still are contending in the American League East.
They are players you should seek to acquire in your fantasy leagues, if you don't already have them.
Pitchers to avoid or to dump, in addition to Buehrle, are Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Tim Hudson, Kyle Kendrick, Jordan Lyles, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman and Kyle Lobstein.
Hellickson has been at the top of the Hittability and Strikeability lists in years past. I'd suggest that he and Tillman might have previously undisclosed injuries. Hudson, Guthrie and Buehrle may simply be at the end of the line.
I'll have more posts on my Hittability/Strikeability ratings, and how they can be used to predict future performance.
Monday, February 9, 2015
No home-court advantage in regionals
The NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament isn’t likely
to have a top seed with a big home-court advantage in this year’s regionals.
We’ve seen teams such as Duke and Syracuse playing close to
home cooking over the years.
That scenario could have resulted again this season with the
East Regional in Syracuse. SU, which wasn’t headed for a top seed anyway, took
itself out of the equation by putting the team on a self-imposed probation that
made them ineligible for the tournament.
A cynic might say that was an easy decision in a year when
the Orange might not even have qualified for the Big Dance. They won’t even
have the option of being embarrassed in the NIT the ACC Tournament, for which
they’re also ineligible.
The other regionals are distant from the homes of other
perennial contenders. The Midwest Regional is in Cleveland, the South in
Houston and the West in Los Angeles.
There is one team that could win the tournament without
having to board an airplane.
That’s top-ranked Kentucky, which should be able to win
anywhere short of the NBA’s Western Conference.
Assuming the Wildcats would go in the Midwest, they’d open
NCAA play in Louisville, move on to Cleveland and play in the Final Four even
closer to home in Indianapolis.
In the most recent polls, Gonzaga, Virginia and Duke
followed Kentucky. Gonzaga would be the natural choice as the No. 1 seed in a
West Regional woefully short of top teams. Virginia would be likely to be the
East’s top seed. Though Duke would be playing in its natural South Regional,
the Blue Devils would be about 1,000 miles from home.
Based on the current polls, the regions could stack up like
this:
East – 1. Virginia, 2. Villanova (playing on a familiar
Carrier Dome court), 3. North Carolina, 4. West Virginia or Maryland.
South – 1. Duke, 2. Kansas, 3. Iowa State, 4. Northern Iowa
or West Virginia.
Midwest – 1. Kentucky, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Louisville or
Kansas, 4. Notre Dame.
West – 1. Gonzaga, 2. Arizona, 3. Utah, 4. Wichita State or
Northern Iowa.
There’s still a long way to go. So those regional lineups
could change a lot, but it’s still not likely that a clear hometown favorite
will be hosting.
Notes on Virginia-UNC
Virginia beat the North Carolina Tar Heels at their own game
Monday night.
The ACC leading Cavaliers (20-1 overall, 8-1 in conference)
rallied from a six-point deficit to win the road game 75-64.
Third-ranked Virginia was coming off its first loss, to No. 4
Duke before taking on the No. 12 Tar Heels. A rugged stretch of schedule will
continue for UVa Saturday against No. 9 Louisville.
UNC (17-6, 7-3) had broken away from a defensive struggle
where neither team scored in the first 2 minutes by beating the Cavaliers’ zone
and getting the ball inside.
When Joel Jones scored for a 16-10 lead, North Carolina
already had scored 10 points in the paint.
By halftime, which Kennedy Meeks ended with a tip-in to put
the Tar Heels back in the lead at 33-32, they had scored 18 points inside.
North Carolina scored 16 more points in the paint in the
second half, but Virginia put in 24 from short range. Those earned the
Cavaliers a 40-34 advantage for the game.
“The defense tightened up,” Virginia coach Tony Bennett told
ESPN’s Allison Williams. “Our guys played the way we need to play, and that’s
blue-collar play.”
UVa’s three starting guards were the leading scorers, but
Anthony Gill came off the bench to help up front with 13 points and a team-high
7 rebounds.
Malcolm Brogdon scored 17 points. Justin Anderson’s 16
included three 3-pointers, and London Parrantes added 15 points.
Marcus Paige led UNC with 15, but 10 of those came after
Virginia had built an 18-point lead at 66-48. Playing inside, Brice Johnson had
14 points and 8 rebounds, and Meeks added 11 and 7.
Meeks was playing after waking up with a 101-degree fever.
J.P. Tokoto struggled, missing all three field goal attempts and scoring one
point in 30 minutes.
The Tar Heels will visit unranked Boston College Saturday.
Monday, February 2, 2015
Belichick, Patriots one move ahead in chess game
You've seen the last-minute interception that clinched the Patriots' big game 49 victory -- if not live, then in incessant replays.
And you've seen or heard the second guessing of Seahawks coach Pete Carroll.
Why would Seattle pass with 20 seconds left, the ball on New England's 1 yard line and Marshawn Lynch in the backfield?
As the teams lined up, I was thinking that the Seahawks would be swarming around Lynch so much that a pass could be open.
Carroll might have been thinking the same thing when he called for the pass. But he wasn't expecting that New England's Bill Belichick might be one step ahead of him.
Belichick was like the customer in the AT&T commercial who one-ups Lily in appreciation for appreciation of appreciation by saying merely, "I appreciate that." By the the time Lily recovers with "ahhhhh," it's too late. The point has been made.
The Patriots were not too late.
In a post-game interview, Malcolm Butler, the rookie who made the interception, said when he saw receivers stacked on the right end of the formation, he was looking for the pick play designed to get Ricardo Lockette open.
Why would Butler be looking for that? Had the Patriots spied on Seattle practices?
No, it was probably just good old-fashioned scouting.
Were there examples of pick plays the Seahawks used this season to score on short passes in similar situations?
On Sept. 21, Seattle had the ball on Denver's 5 with 23 seconds left in the first half. There was a stack and a third receiver on the left end, with Lynch split out wide on the right. Tight end Zach Miller ran downfield, Lynch slanted across his backside, the deep defender was late getting to him and Russell Wilson hit Lynch for a touchdown.
And you've seen or heard the second guessing of Seahawks coach Pete Carroll.
Why would Seattle pass with 20 seconds left, the ball on New England's 1 yard line and Marshawn Lynch in the backfield?
As the teams lined up, I was thinking that the Seahawks would be swarming around Lynch so much that a pass could be open.
Carroll might have been thinking the same thing when he called for the pass. But he wasn't expecting that New England's Bill Belichick might be one step ahead of him.
Belichick was like the customer in the AT&T commercial who one-ups Lily in appreciation for appreciation of appreciation by saying merely, "I appreciate that." By the the time Lily recovers with "ahhhhh," it's too late. The point has been made.
The Patriots were not too late.
In a post-game interview, Malcolm Butler, the rookie who made the interception, said when he saw receivers stacked on the right end of the formation, he was looking for the pick play designed to get Ricardo Lockette open.
Why would Butler be looking for that? Had the Patriots spied on Seattle practices?
No, it was probably just good old-fashioned scouting.
Were there examples of pick plays the Seahawks used this season to score on short passes in similar situations?
On Sept. 21, Seattle had the ball on Denver's 5 with 23 seconds left in the first half. There was a stack and a third receiver on the left end, with Lynch split out wide on the right. Tight end Zach Miller ran downfield, Lynch slanted across his backside, the deep defender was late getting to him and Russell Wilson hit Lynch for a touchdown.
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