Monday, July 27, 2009

Hot and Not: Buehrle, Hochevar special

The players listed here were the major league statistical leaders last week. Batting averages are based on 20 at-bats, and ERA and WHIP on seven innings pitched. In most cases, we eliminate batters with an average lower than .280 and pitchers with ERAs above 4.00 from the Hot list. Keep in mind players’ career performance and current-season totals even more than current trends in deciding on whether to keep those players in your lineup.

Hot

Pos. Name, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

OF Andre Ethier, Dodgers 13-22 .591 2-5 0
2B Howie Kendrick, Angels 12-21 .571 1-5 0
OF Matt Holliday, A’s-Cards 15-27 .556 2-10 1
2B/SS/3B Craig Counsell, Brewers 11-22 .500 0-4 0
SS Stephen Drew, D-backs 14-29 .483 1-5 1
OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 12-25 .480 2-4 0
OF Shane Victorino, Phillies 14-30 .467 1-4 1
OF Rick Ankiel, Cardinals 10-22 .455 2-5 1
1B Ryan Garko, Indians 9-20 .450 2-5 0
SS Yunel Escobar, Braves 12-27 .444 3-9 0

This is Escobar’s second consecutive week among the majors’ leaders in batting average.

Home runs – Twins 1B Justin Morneau 5; Cardinals 3B/OF/2B Mark DeRosa and Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill 4; Brewers OF Ryan Braun, Pirates OF Garrett Jones, Twins OF Jason Kubel, Orioles OF Nick Markakis and Reds 1B Joey Votto 3.

RBI – Morneau 11; Holliday, Kubel and Astros OF Carlos Lee 10; Mets OF Jeff Francoeur, D-backs C Miguel Montero and OF Justin Upton and Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki 9. Montero was on the batting average Hot list a week earlier, when Upton was on the BA Not list.

Stolen bases – Rangers OF Nelson Cruz, Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Angels 3B Chone Figgins, Braves OF Nate McLouth and Cubs SS Ryan Theriot 4; Reds 2B Brandon Phillips 3.

Runs – Holliday and Drew 10; Ethier, Morneau, Victorino, Mets OF Angel Pagan and Phillies OF Jayson Werth 8.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

LHP Mark Buehrle, White Sox 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.00 6:0
RHP Justin Verlander, Tigers 9.0 0.00 1-0 1.11 4:4
RHP Scott Feldman, Rangers 8.0 0.00 1-0 0.88 2:3
RHP Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 7.1 0.00 1-0 1.09 6:4
LHP Jarrod Washburn, Mariners 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.57 3:2
LHP Aaron Laffey, Indians 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.86 7:3
LHP Jeremy Sowers, Indians 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.86 2:2
LHP John Lannan, Nationals 17.0 0.53 1-0 0.76 3:1
LHP Brett Cecil, Blue Jays 14.0 0.64 1-0 1.29 16:7
RHP Tyler Clippard, Nationals 9.0 1.00 1-0 0.78 15:3
RHP Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 9.0 1.00 0-0 0.78 10:3

Buehrle was just perfect. Feldman is one of this year’s biggest under-the-radar surprises. That Halladay guy has been in the news a lot recently.

Wins – Giants RHP Matt Cain, Yankees RHP Joba Chamberlain, Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa, D-backs RHP Juan Gutierrez, Cubs RHP Kevin Hart, Angels RHP John Lackey, Phillies RHP Rodrigo Lopez, Rangers RHP Dustin Nippert and Braves RHP Javier Vazquez 2.

Saves – Cubs RHP Kevin Gregg, Marlins RHP Leo Nunez, Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera and Rangers LHP C.J. Wilson 3-for-3. This was Rivera’s second consecutive 3-for-3 week.

WHIP – Buehrle 0.00; Braves RHP Jair Jurrjens 0.52; Cubs RHP Rich Harden 0.54; Rays RHP Matt Garza 0.56; Washburn and Astros LHP Wandy Rodriguez 0.57.

Strikeout/walk ratio (10 Ks, at least a 2.5:1 ratio) – Royals RHP Luke Hochevar 13:0; De La Rosa 13:1; Phillies LHP J.A. Happ 10:1; Athletics LHP Brett Anderson 13:2; Clippard and Yankees LHP Andy Pettitte 15:3; Halladay, Royals RHP Zack Greinke and Marlins RHP Ricky Nolasco 10:3; Vazquez 14:4. Over the last two weeks, Hochevar has struck out 22 and walked none in 13 1/3 innings. De La Rosa was one of my live longshots for the week.

* * *

Not

Pos. Player, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

1B/OF Aubrey Huff, Orioles 1-20 .050 0-0 0
2B Freddy Sanchez, Pirates 2-26 .077 0-0 0
1B/3B Russell Branyan, Mariners 2-24 .083 1-3 0
DH Jim Thome, White Sox 2-22 .091 1-2 0
2B Alexi Casilla, Twins 2-21 .095 0-00 2
SS/2B Ronny Cedeno, Mariners 2-21 .095 0-1 0
1B Carlos Pena, Rays 3-24 .125 1-2 0
OF/SS Willie Bloomquist, Royals 3-22 .136 0-0 0
2B/SS Clint Barmes, Rockies 3-22 .136 0-0 2
OF Grady Sizemore, Indians 3-22 .136 1-2 0

The week’s hitless wonder was Rangers C Taylor Teagarden, 0-for-11.

Walk/strikeout ratio (six or more strikeouts) – Giants 3B Jose Uribe 0:11; Cardinals OF Ryan Ludwick 1:10; Pena 2:10; Phillies 1B Ryan Howard 4:12; Thome 4:10.

Caught stealing – Braves SS Yunel Escobar, Dodgers C Russell Martin and Athletics OF Ryan Sweeney 0-for-2.

The following pitchers made two starts last week, doubly damaging their real and fantasy teams.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP Ryan Sadowski, Giants 6.1 15.63 0-2 3.00 4:6
RHP Nick Blackburn, Twins 8.2 13.50 0-1 2.31 0:1
LHP Gio Gonzalez, Athletics 9.1 11.57 1-0 1.93 7:6
RHP Ervin Santana, Angels 9.2 10.24 1-1 1.76 11:3
RHP John Smoltz, Red Sox 10.2 10.13 0-2 1.78 11:1
RHP Micah Owings, Reds 8.0 10.13 0-2 2.25 4:6
LHP David Price, Rays 9.0 10.00 0-1 2.11 7:2
RHP Rick Porcello, Tigers 10.1 8.71 1-1 1.65 5:3
LHP Doug Davis, D-backs 8.1 8.64 1-1 2.16 9:7
RHP Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals 10.0 8.10 0-2 2.00 7:2

Losses – Owings, Sadowski, Smoltz, Wellemeyer, Padres RHP Greg Burke, Blue Jays LHP Scott Downs 2 and Pirates RHP Virgil Vasquez 2.

Blown saves – Downs 0-for-2; White Sox RHP Bobby Jenks 1-for-3.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Cardinals' pitchers should thrive

This week, there won’t be teams with a schedule advantage so much as teams with a disadvantage.

Twenty of the 30 major league teams are scheduled to play seven games, with the other 10 limited to six games. The difference is more pronounced in the National League, where just four teams – the Diamondbacks, Braves, Marlins and Pirates – would play six. In the American League, eight teams are scheduled to play every day with just the Indians, Tigers, Angels, Twins, Rays and Blue Jays playing six times.

Six teams – the Orioles and Rangers in the AL; the Reds, Mets, Cardinals and Giants in the NL – would play seven games at homes.

In the AL, that should mean a slight overall advantage for hitters over pitchers. Both stadiums in use all week favor hitters significantly. That effect is watered down some because the two teams scheduled to play all six of their games at home play in an extreme pitchers’ park at Minnesota and a park at Tampa Bay that somewhat favors pitchers.

Another of the majors’ best hitters’ parks is at Cincinnati, and San Francisco’s has been somewhat hitter friendly. But both St. Louis and Shea Stadium are considered among the majors’ best pitchers’ parks, and Florida, where the Marlins are scheduled for six games, also favors pitchers.

Pitchers scheduled to start at home twice this week are RHPs Jason Berken, James Shields, Tommy Hunter, Vicente Padilla, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Tim Lincecum, and LHPs Rich Hill, Glen Perkins, Oliver Perez and Barry Zito. My highest recommendations are Nolasco, Carpenter, Wainwright and Lincecum, with Shields and Zito as live longshots. The Cardinals’ pitchers also will be helped by an improved lineup following their trade for LF Matt Holliday.

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Pitching Chart, July 27-Aug. 2

This could be one of the least predictable lists we’ll have all season, with the possible exception of the first week in September when pitchers have been brought up from the minors. The trade deadline falls on Friday, so some pitchers could be making starts for teams other than the one they’re listed with here. Some others would be bumped from rotations and still others could miss a day or two while traveling to join their new team.

AL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Bal
KC KC KC KC/ Bos Bos Bos
Berken Hill* Bergesen Guthrie/ Hernandez Berken2 Hill2
Bos
Oak Oak Oak Oak/ @Bal @Bal @Bal
Beckett Buchholz Penny Lester/ Smoltz Beckett2 Buchholz2
CWS
@Min @Min @Min/ NYY NYY NYY NYY
Danks Buehrle Contreras/ Colon** Floyd Danks2 Buehrle2
Cle
@LAA @LAA @LAA/ --- Det Det Det
Pavano Huff Laffey/ --- Sowers Lee Pavano2
Det
@Tex @Tex @Tex/ --- @Cle @Cle @Cle
Galarraga French Verlander/ --- Jackson Porcello Galarraga2
KC
@Bal @Bal @Bal @Bal/ @TB @TB @TB
Chen-3* Bannister Greinke Hochevar/ Ponson Meche Bannister2
LAA
Cle Cle Cle/ --- @Min @Min @Min
Saunders Weaver Lackey/ --- Santana Saunders2-4* Weaver2
Min
CWS CWS CWS/ --- LAA LAA LAA
Perkins Baker Liriano/ --- Blackburn Swarzak Perkins2
NYY
@TB @TB @TB/ @CWS @CWS @CWS @CWS
Burnett Sabathia Chamberlain/ Pettitte Mitre Burnett2 Sabathia2
Oak
@Bos @Bos @Bos @Bos/ Tor Tor Tor
Cahill Mazzaro Anderson Gonzalez/ Braden Cahill2 Mazzaro2
Se
Tor Tor Tor/ @Tex @Tex @Tex @Tex
Hernandez Washburn Rowland-Smith/ Bedard Jakubauskas-5* Hernandez2 Washburn2
TB
NYY NYY NYY/ --- KC KC KC
Shields Kazmir Garza/ --- Price Niemann Shields2
Tex
Det Det Det/ Se Se Se Se
Hunter Padilla-6* Feldman/ Holland Millwood Hunter Padilla2
Tor
@Se @Se @Se/ --- @Oak @Oak @Oak
Romero Rzepczynski Halladay/ --- Tallet Cecil Romero

*-The Orioles seem willing to give ineffective LHP Rich Hill one more chance in their rotation. He’s still expected to start Tuesday or Wednesday, but he could be pitching for his job. If Hill isn’t effective then, expect Baltimore to recall RHP Chris Tillman from Triple-A Norfolk to join their rotation.

**-RHP Bartolo Colon pitched well enough in Friday’s doubleheader to regain a spot in the White Sox rotation. He’ll replace LHP Clayton Richard.

3*-Royals RHP Gil Meche doesn’t seem ready to return from the disabled list, so LHP Bruce Chen seems likely to start Monday. That could be his last start, because Meche could be able to start for Kansas City Saturday. Another possibility would be for Chen to stay in the rotation, replacing RHP Sir Sidney Ponson.

4*-Because of Thursday’s off day, the Angels could move LHP Joe Saunders and others ahead in the rotation ahead of tonight’s starter, RHP Matt Palmer.

5*-With LHP Garrett Olson likely to go to the bullpen, the Mariners still will need a fifth starter. They could be leaning toward moving RHP Chris Jakubauskas from the bullpen. Other possibilities would be LHP Jason Vargas or RHP Brandon Morrow from Triple-A Tacoma.

6*-The Rangers still are listing RHP Vicente Padilla as Tuesday’s starter even though he has been diagnosed as having the swine flu virus. If he couldn’t pitch then or Sunday, RHP Dustin Nippert again would take Padilla’s place.

NL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Ari
Phi Phi Phi/ --- @NYM @NYM @NYM
Garland Haren Petit/ --- Davis Scherzer Garland2
Atl
--- @Fla @Fla @Fla/ LAD LAD LAD
--- Jurrjens Kawakami Vazquez/ Hanson Lowe Jurrjens2
ChC
Ho Ho Ho Ho/ @Fla @Fla @Fla
Zambrano Dempster* Wells Hart/ Harden Zambrano2 Dempster2
Cin
SD SD SD SD/ Col Col Col
Bailey Arroyo Harang Cueto/ Owings Bailey2 Arroyo2
\Col
@NYM @NYM @NYM @NYM/ @Cin @Cin @Cin
Jimenez Marquis Hammel DeLaRosa/ Cook Jimenez2 Marquis2
Fla
--- Atl Atl Atl/ ChC ChC ChC
--- Nolasco Johnson VandenHurk/ Volstad Miller** Nolasco2
Ho
@ChC @ChC @ChC @ChC/ @StL @StL @StL
Rodriguez Oswalt Hampton Ortiz/ Moehler Rodriguez2 Oswalt2
LAD
@StL @StL @StL @StL/ @Atl @Atl @Atl
Wolf Billingsley Kershaw Kuroda/ Schmidt Wolf2 Billingsley2
Mil
Was Was Was Was/ @SD @SD @SD
Suppan Dillard-3* Parra Gallardo/ Looper Suppan2 Dillard2
NYM
Col Col Col Col/ Ari Ari Ari
Perez Pelfrey Santana Niese-4*/ Hernandez Perez2 Pelfrey2
Phi
@Ari @Ari @Ari/ @SF @SF @SF @SF
Moyer Hamels Happ/ Lopez Blanton Moyer2 Hamels2
Pit
@SF @SF @SF/ --- Was Was Was
Maholm Morton Duke/ --- Ohlendorf Vasquez Maholm
StL
LAD LAD LAD LAD/ Ho Ho Ho
Carpenter Wainwright Pineiro Lohse/ Wellemeyer Carpenter2 Wainwright2
SD
@Cin @Cin @Cin @Cin/ Mil Mil Mil
Geer Correia Latos Stauffer/ Gaudin Geer2 Correia2
SF
Pit Pit Pit/ Phi Phi Phi Phi
Lincecum Zito Cain/ Sanchez Sadowski Lincecum2 Zito2
Was
@Mil @Mil @Mil @Mil/ @Pit @Pit @Pit
Stammen Balester-5* Mock Martin-6*/ Lannan Stammen2 Balester2
\
*-RHP Ryan Dempster is expected off the disabled list to start Tuesday and to take the rotation spot of LHP Ted Lilly, who has gone on the DL and will have both shoulder and knee surgeries that are expected to keep him out a month or so.

**-The Marlins will need a fifth starter Saturday. They could recall LHP Andrew Miller from Triple-A New Orleans, move RHP Burke Badenhop back from his relief role or trade for a starter.

3*-The Brewers are expected to recall RHP Tim Dillard from Triple-A Nashville to start Tuesday.

4*-With RHP Fernando Nieve on the disabled list, the Mets recalled LHP Jonathan Niese from Triple-A Buffalo to start today’s game. That would put him in line to start again Thursday.

5*-When the Nationals put RHP Jordan Zimmermann on the disabled list, they promoted RHP Collin Balester to take that rotation spot.

6*-Washington brought up RHP J.D. Martin to start Monday’s game. He’s also scheduled to start today, which would put him on schedule for another start Thursday.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Schedule Notes: Load up on White Sox

Thursday’s White Sox-Tigers doubleheader in Detroit makes this a week with considerable advantages to some teams, most notably the Sox. Chicago is scheduled to play eight games. That would give its hitters and relief pitchers 33 per cent more games than those from seven other American League teams – the Orioles, Red Sox, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays. The six other AL teams would play seven games.

The twin bill, which includes a makeup game, also would give the Tigers seven games at home in a pretty good hitters’ park. Scheduled to play seven home games in exceptional parks for hitters are the Yankees in the AL and the Phillies in the National League. The Nationals also would have all seven of their games at home in a good pitchers’ park.

The NL is evenly split. Eight teams are scheduled to play six games, with the other eight – Phillies, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Braves, Pirates, Cardinals, Padres and Giants – playing seven.

Pitchers scheduled to start at home twice this week are RHPs Armando Galarraga, Rick Porcello, Sir Sidney Ponson, Sergio Mitre, Brian Moehler, Rodrigo Lopez and Joe Blanton, and LHPs Andy Pettitte, Brett Cecil, Jorge De La Rosa, Randy Wolf, Scott Olsen and John Lannan. Our highest recommendation is Wolf, with Porcello, Blanton and De La Rosa as live longshots.

Hot and Not -- Zobrist on a tear

The players listed here were the major league statistical leaders during the All-Star week. Batting averages are based on 12 at-bats, and ERA and WHIP on seven innings pitched. In most cases, we eliminate batters with an average lower than .280 and pitchers with ERAs above 4.00 from the Hot list. Keep in mind players’ career performance and current-season totals even more than current trends in deciding on whether to keep those players in your lineup.

Hot

Pos. Name, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

3B Edwin Encarnacion, Reds 7-12 .583 2-6 0
C Miguel Montero, D-backs 7-12 .583 2-3 0
OF Garret Anderson, Braves 7-13 .538 1-2 0
2B Orlando Hudson, Dodgers 7-13 .538 0-1 0
OF Nyjer Morgan, Nationals 9-17 .529 0-1 4
SS Yunel Escobar, Braves 7-14 .500 2-8 0
OF Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs 6-12 .500 0-1 0
C Jason Kendall, Brewers 6-12 .500 0-1 0
3B Mark Reynolds, D-backs 6-13 .462 0-0 1
2B/OF Ben Zobrist, Rays 6-13 .462 0-0 0

This is Zobrist’s second consecutive week among the majors’ leaders in batting average. Fukudome was on the Not list a week earlier.

Home runs – Encarnacion, Escobar, Montero, Brewers 1B Prince Fielder, Mariners OF Franklin Gutierrez, Phillies OF Raul Ibanez, Angels 1B Kendry Morales, Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols, Cubs OF Alfonso Soriano, Yankees 1B Mark Teixeira and White Sox DH Jim Thome 2.

RBI – Escobar 8; Thome 7; Encarnacion 6; Fielder, Gutierrez, Ibanez, Soriano and Angels 2B/SS Erick Aybar 5.

Stolen bases – Morgan 4; Gutierrez, Astros OF Michael Bourn, Rays OF Carl Crawford, Rockies OF Carlos Gonzalez and Brewers OF Corey Hart 2.

Runs – Fielder, Dodgers OF Matt Kemp and Braves C Brian McCann 5; Crawford, Escobar, Morales, Morgan, Angels 3B Chone Figgins, Braves 3B Chipper Jones and Orioles 3B Melvin Mora and 2B Brian Roberts 4. This is Fielder’s second consecutive week on the Runs Hot list.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP John Lackey, Angels 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.44 6:1
RHP Chris Carpenter, Cardinals 8.0 0.00 1-0 1.00 7:1
LHP Brett Anderson, Athletics 8.0 0.00 0-0 0.25 6:0
LHP Paul Maholm, Pirates 8.0 0.00 0-0 0.50 7:0
LHP Jamie Moyer, Phillies 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.29 4:1
LHP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.43 5:1
RHP Charlie Morton, Pirates 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.71 6:2
LHP J.A. Happ, Phillies 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.86 4:1
LHP Johan Santana, Mets 7.0 0.00 1-0 1.00 5:2
RHP Bronson Arroyo, Reds 7.0 0.00 1-0 1.14 7:1
LHP C.C. Sabathia, Yankees 7.0 0.00 1-0 1.14 4:3

Saves – Rays LHP J.P. Howell and Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera 3-for-3.

WHIP – Howell 0.00; Anderson 0.25; Twins RHP Bobby Keppel 0.27; Moyer 0.29; Giants RHP Bobby Wilson 0.33.

Strikeout/walk ratio (8 Ks, at least a 2.5:1 ratio) – Royals RHP Luke Hochevar 9:0; Yankees RHP Phil Hughes 8:0; Giants RHP Tim Lincecum 10:1; Mariners RHP Felix Hernandez 8:1; Twins RHP Scott Baker, Giants RHP Matt Cain and D-backs RHP Dan Haren 8:2; Yankees RHP Joba Chamberlain and Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright 8:3; Rockies RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 10:4.

* * *

Not

The week’s hitless wonders were Braves OF Nate McLouth 0-for-16; Nationals OF Josh Willingham 0-for-13; Giants OF Aaron Rowand, Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill and Red Sox OF J.D. Drew 0-for-12; Mets OF Jeremy Reed 0-for-11; Marlins OF Jeremy Hermida 0-for-10.

Pos. Player, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

C Kurt Suzuki, Athletics 1-16 .063 0-1 0
OF/1B Daniel Murphy, Mets 1-14 .071 0-1 1
OF Justin Upton, D-backs 1-13 .077 0-0 0
C Joe Mauer, Twins 1-13 .077 0-0 0
1B/3B Hank Blalock, Rangers 1-13 .077 0-0 0
OF Denard Span, Twins 1-13 .077 0-1 0
OF Colby Rasmus, Cardinals 1-12 .083 0-0 0
OF Gerardo Parra, D-backs 1-12 .083 0-0 0
1B Adam LaRoche, Pirates 1-12 .083 0-0 0
2B/3B Jeff Keppinger, Astros 1-12 .083 0-0 0
C Eliezer Alfonzo, Padres 1-12 .083 0-0 0

Parra was on the batting average Hot list last week.

Walk/strikeout ratio (six or more strikeouts) – Upton 0:7; Alfonzo 0:6; Indians OF Shin-soo Choo 1:7; Rays OF Pat Burrell 1:6; Phillies OF Jayson Werth 2:7; Rays 1B Carlos Pena 3:6; Nationals OF Adam Dunn 5:6.

Caught stealing – Reds OF Willy Taveras 1-for-3; Nationals OF Nyjer Morgan 4-for-6.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP Mike Pelfrey, Mets 4.1 18.69 0-1 2.31 3:1
RHP Jason Berken, Orioles 4.1 12.46 0-1 2.08 3:2
RHP Homer Bailey, Reds 5.1 11.81 0-1 1.88 3:4
RHP James Shields, Rays 5.1 11.81 0-0 2.25 3:1
RHP Josh Geer, Padres 4.0 11.25 0-1 2.75 2:4
LHP Dallas Braden, Athletics 5.0 10.80 0-1 2.20 2:1
RHP Brad Penny, Red Sox 5.0 10.80 0-1 1.80 3:1
LHP Ricky Romero, Blue Jays 4.1 8.31 0-1 2.31 8:5
RHP Jose Contreras, White Sox 4.1 8.31 0-1 2.08 1:4
RHP Randy Wells, Cubs 5.0 7.20 1-0 1.60 1:1

Losses – Royals RHP Juan Cruz 2.

Blown saves – Cruz 0-for-2.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Is Watson in it to win it?

I've been doing a lot of thinking this weekend about my late father. Positive thinking, as just about always when I remember him.

When I was young, it was amusing to me that he'd get all excited when Sam Snead or some other "old" golfer was doing well in a tournament. It didn't take much to get my dad to watch golf on television, and even less to get him out on the course. But he'd pay even more rapt attention if Slamming Sammy was in contention.

The amusing part was that as close as those oldtimers might come, they wouldn't ever win. But my dad, like a true fan, never gave up hope.

I better understood his interest, passion and rooting interest when I got older. My passion was baseball, and I could identify with older guys like Nolan Ryan and Charlie Hough who at advanced ages were having far greater success in the major leagues than I ever did even in the Tri-County Small Fry League.

The reason I've been thinking about Dad this weekend, of course, has been Tom Watson's play in the British Open. I haven't played golf in several years, and rarely watch it on TV. But I changed the channel over -- just to take a look at the leaders.

Well, I'm still watching it. One part of me is figuring Watson has come this far, and he can do it. The back of my mind tells me, perhaps logically, that he can't keep it up. That part tells me he's too old, that my kids would be amused when Watson comes close but doesn't win.

A win by Watson would be nice for older guys like me. But I want him to win it for Dad.

Pitching Chart, July 20-26

AL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Bal
@NYY @NYY @NYY/ --- @Bos @Bos @Bos
Hernandez* Hill Berken/ --- Bergesen Guthrie Hernandez2
Bos
@Tex @Tex @Tex/ --- Bal Bal Bal
Smoltz Beckett Wakefield/ --- Penny Lester Smoltz2
CWS
TB TB TB TB/ @Det-@Det @Det @Det
Floyd Richard Danks Buehrle/ Contreras-Colon** Floyd2 Richard2
Cle
--- @Tor @Tor @Tor/ @Se @Se @Se
--- Lee Pavano Huff/ Ohka Laffey Lee2
Det
--- Se Se Se/ CWS-CWS CWS CWS
--- Galarraga Porcello French-3*/ Verlander Jackson-Miner-4* Galarraga2 Porcello2
KC
LAA LAA LAA/ --- Tex Tex Tex
Ponson Chen Bannister/ --- Greinke Hochevar Ponson2
LAA
@KC @KC @KC/ Min Min Min Min
O’Sullivan Santana Saunders/ Weaver Lackey O’Sullivan2 Santana2
Min
@Oak @Oak @Oak/ @LAA @LAA @LAA @LAA
Blackburn Swarzak-5* Perkins/ Baker Liriano Blackburn2 Swarzak2
NYY
Bal Bal Bal/ Oak Oak Oak Oak
Pettitte Mitre-6* Burnett/ Sabathia Chamberlain Pettitte2 Mitre2
Oak
Min Min Min/ @NYY @NYY @NYY @NYY
Gonzalez Braden Cahill/ Mazzaro Anderson Gonzalez2 Braden2
Se
--- @Det @Det @Det/ Cle Cle Cle
--- Olson Hernandez Washburn/ Bedard Vargas-7* Olson2
TB
@CWS @CWS @CWS @CWS/ @Tor @Tor @Tor
Price Niemann Shields Kazmir/ Garza Price2 Niemann2
Tex
Bos Bos Bos/ --- @KC @KC @KC
Millwood Hunter Padilla/ --- Feldman Holland Millwood2
Tor
--- Cle Cle Cle/ TB TB TB
--- Cecil Romero Rzepczynski-8*/ Halladay Purcey-9* Cecil2

*-The Orioles are recalling RHP David Hernandez from his minor league assignment to start Monday’s game.

**-RHP Bartolo Colon (inflamed left knee) is coming off the disabled list to start one game of Thursday’s doubleheader. If he pitches well, he could replace LHP Clayton Richard in the White Sox rotation.

3*-Rookie LHP Lucas French has moved into the Tigers’ rotation and had pitched well.

4*-Detroit will need a sixth starter this week because of Thursday’s doubleheader. The most likely candidate is RHP Zach Miner from the bullpen. None of the pitchers who are in line to pitch at Triple-A Toledo (Ruddy Lugo, 29, or Scott Drucker, 27) or Double-A Erie (Thad Weber, 24) appears to be a viable option.

5*-RHP Anthony Swarzak is back in the Twins’ rotation with RHP Kevin Slowey on the disabled list. Swarzak is kind of like Slowey lite.

6*-The Yankees are recalling RHP Sergio Mitre from Triple-A Scranton. He served a 50-day suspension this season for using andro, which is banned now but wasn’t when Mark McGwire used to have it in his locker.

7*-The Mariners will need a fifth starter Saturday. That pitcher is likely to be recalled from Triple-A Tacoma. In addition to LHP Jason Vargas, options are RHP Brandon Morrow and lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith.

8*-Rookie LHP Marc Rzepczynski solidified his spot in the Blue Jays' rotation by beating the Red Sox Saturday.

9*-When Toronto needs a fifth starter Saturday, they’d be likely to recall LHP David Purcey, who would be on schedule to move up from the Triple-A Las Vegas rotation.

NL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Ari
@Col @Col @Col/ Pit Pit Pit Pit
Davis Scherzer Garland/ Haren Petit Davis2 Scherzer2
Atl
SF SF SF SF/ @Mil @Mil @Mil
Hanson* Lowe Jurrjens Kawakami/ Vazquez Hanson2 Lowe2
ChC
@Phi @Phi @Phi/ --- Cin Cin Cin
Lilly** Harden Zambrano/ --- Wells Hart Lilly2
Cin
@LAD @LAD @LAD/ --- @ChC @ChC @ChC
Owings Bailey Arroyo/ --- Harang Cueto Owings2
Col
Ari Ari Ari/ --- SF SF SF
DeLaRosa Cook Jimenez/ --- Hammel Marquis DeLaRosa2
Fla
@SD @SD @SD/ --- @LAD @LAD @LAD
VandenHurk-3* Volstad Nolasco/ --- Johnson Miller Volstad2
Ho
StL StL StL/ --- NYM NYM NYM
Moehler Rodriguez Oswalt/ --- Hampton Ortiz Moehler2
LAD
Cin Cin Cin/ --- Fla Fla Fla
Schmidt-4* Wolf Billingsley/ --- Kershaw Kuroda Wolf2
Mil
@Pit @Pit @Pit/ --- Atl Atl Atl
Burns Looper Suppan/ --- Gallardo Burns-5* Looper2
NYM
@Was @Was @Was/ --- @Ho @Ho @Ho
Hernandez Perez Pelfrey/ --- Santana Nieve Hernandez2
Phi
ChC ChC ChC/ SD/ StL StL StL
Lopez Blanton-6* Moyer/ Hamels/ Happ Lopez2 Blanton2
Pit
Mil Mil Mil/ @Ari @Ari @Ari @Ari
Ohlendorf Vasquez Maholm/ Morton Duke Ohlendorf2 Vasquez2
StL
@Ho @Ho @Ho/ @Was/ @Phi @Phi @Phi
Lohse Wellemeyer Carpenter/ Wainwright/ Pineiro Lohse2 Wellemeyer2
SD
Fla Fla Fla/ @Phi/ @Was @Was @Was
Stauffer-7* Gaudin Geer/ Correia/ Latos-8* Stauffer2 Gaudin2
SF
@Atl @Atl @Atl @Atl/ @Col @Col @Col
Sanchez Sadowski-9* Lincecum Zito/ Cain Sanchez2 Sadowski2
Was
NYM NYM NYM/ StL/ SD SD SD
Olsen Lannan Stammen/ Zimmerman/ Mock-10* Olsen2 Lannan2

*-The Braves will recall RHP Tommy Hanson from the high Class A Myrtle Beach roster to start Monday.

**-LHP Ted Lilly had his start pushed back because of a sore left knee, but he’s expected to be ready Monday. If he couldn’t pitch, LHP Sean Marshall could move from the bullpen to the Cubs’ rotation. He also could replace RHP Kevin Hart, today’s starter.

3*-RHP Rick VandenHurk is expected to return from the minors to start Monday for the Marlins. It’s likely that Florida would move RHP Ricky Nolasco ahead of VandenHurk to start Sunday on the usual four days’ rest. Even though RHP Josh Johnson pitched just two innings before Saturday’s game was rained out, he’s not expected to start again until Friday. He’d be trying to extend his streak of starts allowing three or fewer earned runs to 17.

4*-The Dodgers are bringing RHP Jason Schmidt off the disabled list to start Monday. He hasn’t pitched in the majors for more than two years, and has been recovering from shoulder surgery. It’s likely that LA would move LHP Randy Wolf ahead of Schmidt to start Sunday so the righty could get additional rest before breaking into an every-five-days schedule.

5*-RHP Mike Burns is the Brewers’ fifth starter while RHP David Bush is on the disabled list. Burns might start Saturday, or Milwaukee could use LHP Manny Parra, who started Saturday’s game.

6*-The Phillies will bring back RHP Joe Blanton Tuesday. He pitched just 1 1/3 innings before Saturday’s game was rained out.

7*-The Padres have brought a former first-round draft pick, RHP Tim Stauffer, back from the minors to pitch in their rotation.

8*-There’s more excitement in San Diego about RHP Mat Latos, who’s scheduled to start in his major league debut today. That would put the pitcher who dominated the Double-A Texas League on schedule to start again Friday.

9*-Giants RHP Ryan Sadowski is another pitcher who was reassigned to the minor leagues before the All-Star break because his team didn’t need a fifth starter. He has been a pleasant surprise so far.

10*-The Nationals brought RHP Garrett Mock back from the minors to start today. He would be on schedule to start again Friday.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Still advantages in short week

The All-Star break means there wouldn't be any pitchers starting twice this week, but that doesn't mean there are no significant schedule advantages for teams.

It used to be that every team took three days off for the break. This year, almost half (14) of the 30 teams are off for four days.

That's particularly true in the American League, where 10 of the 14 teams are scheduled for just three days. The other four -- the Indians, Angels, Athletics and Mariners -- would play four more games, giving their hitters and relief pitchers a 33 per cent advantage over those from other teams.

In the National League, just four teams -- the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Cardinals and Giants -- are scheduled for three games, so the other 12 would play 33 per cent more games. Pitching is likely to take the upper hand. Only one of the teams scheduled for four home games is in an extreme pitchers' park, in San Diego. But the parks at Atlanta, Florida and Dodger Stadium would give pitchers a slight edge, as would Pittsburgh's park for three games. St. Louis is scheduled to play three games at home in an extreme hitters' park.

The AL would have an extreme pitchers' park in play for four games at Oakland, but overall that league's hitters should have the upper hand. Cleveland, the other home venue for four games, favors hitters slightly. Three parks scheduled for three games are extreme hitters' parks: Cell Phone Field in Chicago, Yankee Stadium and Rangers Ballpark. Kansas City's park also would favor hitters for three games. You should expect offense to prevail in the AL.

Schedules for

Monday, July 13, 2009

Hot and Not: Lester still on a roll

This is an unusual week because other than the players who take a few swings in the All-Star game and its Home Run Derby, any players who finished last week Hot -- or Not -- will be off for three or four days. That very well could be enough to cool off the hot bats and possibly let the tired cold ones rest their bats or arms. So this list might be an even worse predictor than usual for what might happen this week.

Hot

Pos. Name, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers 12-23 .522 1-6 0
OF Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals 13-27 .481 4-15 0
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 12-26 .462 1-4 0
OF Manny Ramirez*, Dodgers 10-22 .455 2-8 0
OF/2B Ben Zobrist, Rays 10-22 .455 1-6 3
1B Nick Johnson, Nationals 11-25 .440 1-3 0
OF Jermaine Dye, White Sox 10-23 .435 0-4 0
OF Carlos Lee, Astros 13-30 .433 1-2 0
2B Chase Utley, Phillies .426 2-6 1
1B/3B Hank Blalock, Rangers 11-26 .423 2-4 0
OF Gerardo Parra, D-backs 11-26 .423 0-5 0
SS Ryan Theriot, Cubs 11-26 .423 0-1 0

Home runs – Ludwick and Phillies OF Jayson Werth 4; Yankees OF/1B Eric Hinske, Pirates OF Garrett Jones, White Sox 1B Paul Konerko, Reds 2B Brandon Phillips, Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez*, Giants 3B/1B/C Pablo Sandoval, Tigers OF/1B Marcus Thames, Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki and Marlins OF Josh Willingham 3.

RBI – Ludwick 15' Sandoval and Werth 11; Konerko 10; Ramirez*, Thames, Orioles OF Luke Scott and Mariners OF Franklin Gutierrez 8. Gutierrez was on the batting average Hot list a week earlier.

Stolen bases – OF Michael Bourn, Rockies OF Dexter Fowler and Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins 5; Nationals Of Nyjer Morgan 4; Jones, Zobrist, Athletics SS Orlando Cabrera, Angels 3B Chone Figgins and Twins OF Denard Span 3.

Runs – Bourn 10; Yankees 2B Robinson Cano 9; Rollins and Phillies OF Shane Victorino 8; Figgins, Ramirez*, Rodriguez*, Zobrist, Astros OF Lance Berkman, Padres 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, Braves OF Nate McLouth, Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols and Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

LHP Brett Anderson, Athletics 13.0 0.00 1-0 0.62 12:3
LHP Jonathan Sanchez, Giants 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.00 11:0
RHP bronson Arroyo, Reds 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.44 5:0
RHP Chris Volstad, Marlins 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.56 6:0
RHP Dan Haren, D-backs 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.56 10:1
LHP Wandy Rodriguez, Astros 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.67 11:1
RHP Jeff Niemann, Rays 9.0 0.00 1-0 1.00 6:3
LHP Jon Lester, Red Sox 8.0 0.00 1-0 0.75 8:2
LHP Manny Parra, Brewers 7.0 0.00 0-0 0.57 7:1
LHP Johan Santana, Twins 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.86 5:1

Lester is on this list of the majors’ best in ERA for the second consecutive week. Arroyo has bounced back after being on the Not list the previous week.

Wins – Red Sox RHP Josh Beckett, Orioles LHP Mark Hendrickson, Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw, Tigers RHP Justin Verlander, Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright, Mariners LHP Jarrod Washburn and Angels RHP Jered Weaver 2.

Saves – braves RHP Rafael Soriano 4-for-4; Red Sox RHP Jonathan Papelbon and Rockies RHP Huston Street 3-for-3.

WHIP – Sanchez 0.00; cardinals RHP Joel Pineiro 0.33; Arroyo and Washburn 0.44; Haren and Volstad 0.56.

Strikeout/walk ratio (10 Ks, at least a 2.5:1 ratio) – Sanchez 11:0; Beckett and Rodriguez 11:1; Haren 10:1; Verlander 19-3; Phillies LHP J.A. Happ 11:2; Anderson 12:3; Marlins RHP Josh Johson 12:3; Tigers RHP Armando Galarraga 10:3; Wainwright 14:5; Mariners LHP Erik Bedard and Cubs RHP Carlos Zambrano 13:5. Haren led this list the previous week.

* * *

Not

Pos. Player, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

SS Elvis Andrus, Rangers 2-20 .100 0-2 0
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Padres 3-27 .111 0-1 0
OF Ryan Braun, Brewers 3-25 .120 0-0 0
3B Mark Reynolds, D-backs 3-24 .125 0-1 2
SS Cristian Guzman, Nationals 3-23 .130 0-3 0
OF Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs 3-23 .130 1-2 0
1B/3B Russell Branyan, Mariners 3-23 .130 2-4 0
OF Nate Schierholtz, Giants 3-22 .136 0-2 0
1B Justin Morneau, Twins 3-21 .143 0-1 0
OF/2B Chris Coghlan, Marlins 3-21 .143 0-2 0

This week's hitless wonders are Twins SS/2B Nick Punto 0-for-15, Reds OF Jay Bruce 0-for-13 and Orioles SS Robert Andino 0-for-10.

Walk/strikeout ratio (10 or more strikeouts) – Royals C Miguel Olivo 0:10; Royals 3B/1B/OF Mark Teahen 1:12; Padres C Eliezer Alfonzo 1:11; D-backs OF Justin Upton 1:10; Rays OF B.J. Upton 2:10; Nationals OF/1B Adam Dunn 4:10; D-backs 3B Mark Reynolds 6:12.

Caught stealing – Royals OF David DeJesus 1-for-4; Yankees OF Brett Gardner 1-for-3; Rockies OF Dexter Fowler 5-for-7.

The pitchers on the next list each made two starts, doubly damaging their real and fantasy teams.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP Johnny Cueto, Reds 5.2 20.64 0-2 3.35 5:5
LHP Bruce Chen, Royals 7.2 11.74 0-2 2.35 5:9
RHP Virgil Vasquez, Pirates 7.1 11.05 0-2 2.32 3:6
RHP Kevin Millwood, Rangers 11.0 10.64 0-2 1.82 5:5
LHP Andy Pettitte, Yankees 10.1 10.45 0-2 1.84 4:7
RHP Scott Baker, Twins 9.1 9.64 1-1 1.93 8:3
LHP Mark Buehrle, White Sox 10.1 9.58 1-1 1.84 4:2
RHP Jason Hammel, Rockies 8.2 9.35 0-0 2.42 5:2
LHP Shane West, Marlins 10.2 8.44 0-2 1.94 3:7
RHP Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 10.0 8.10 0-2 2.10 9:3

Losses – Chen, Gallardo, Millwood, Pettitte, Vasquez, West, Rockies RHP Aaron Cook and Brewers RHP Carlos Villanueva 2.

Blown saves – Braves RHP Peter Moylan 0-for-2, for the second consecutive week.

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Pitching Chart, July 13-19

This would seem to be an easy week to figure out pitching rotations, because there are regular-season games being played just Friday-Saturday, with a few games Thursday. But with at least three days off, teams will be readjusting their rotation to try to get their ace an additional start. However, some of those aces could be pitching in Tuesday’s All-Star game, which would push the start for their team possibly back to Saturday or Sunday. In addition, many teams haven’t indicated their pitching plans, so in some cases it’s a best guest as to which pitchers they might skip this week.

Figure it this way. If you have a fifth starter in your rotation, you shouldn’t be starting him anyway if you want to win your league title. We’ll try to indicate which starter would be No. 4 and likely to pitch for teams that are playing Thursday.

AL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Bal
--- --- --- --- @CWS @CWS @CWS
--- --- --- --- Berken Guthrie Bergesen*
Bos
--- --- --- --- @Tor @Tor @Tor
--- --- --- --- Beckett** Lester Wakefield
CWS
--- --- --- --- Bal Bal Bal
--- --- --- --- Danks Floyd Buehrle-3*
Cle
--- --- --- Se Se Se Se
--- --- --- Lee Huff Ohka Laffey-4*
Det
--- --- --- --- @NYY @NYY @NYY
--- --- --- --- French Verlander-5* Jackson
KC
--- --- --- --- TB TB TB
--- --- --- --- Greinke Hochevar Bannister-6*
LAA
--- --- --- @Oak @Oak @Oak @Oak
--- --- --- Santana Saunders Weaver Lackey
Min
--- --- --- --- @Tex @Tex @Tex
--- --- --- --- Perkins Baker Liriano-7*
NYY
--- --- --- --- Det Det Det
--- --- --- --- Burnett Sabathia Chamberlain-8*
Oak
--- --- --- LAA LAA LAA LAA
--- --- --- Cahill Braden-9* Anderson Mazzaro
Se
--- --- --- @Cle @Cle @Cle @Cle
--- --- --- Olson-10* Hernandez Washburn Bedard
TB
--- --- --- --- @KC @KC @KC
--- --- --- --- Kazmir Garza Shields-11*
Tex
--- --- --- --- Min Min Min
--- --- --- --- Padilla Feldman Hunter-12*
Tor
--- --- --- --- Bos Bos Bos
--- --- --- --- Halladay Tallet Romero

*-The Orioles will skip LHP Rich Hill’s turn in the rotation.

**-The Red Sox could move RHP Josh Beckett and LHP Jon Lester, their two best starting pitchers, ahead in their rotation. The All-Star game could have an impact. Boston is likely to skip RHPs Brad Penny and John Smoltz for now.

3*-Expect the White Sox to bypass LHP Clayton Richard and RHP Jose Contreras this week.

4*-The Indians have indicated that they would skip RHP Carl Pavano.

5*-The Tigers are moving RHP Justin Verlander ahead of RHP Edwin Jackson, who is in the All-Star game.

6*-RHP Gil Meche is not slated to move ahead in the Royals’ rotation to pitch this week. He has said he’d exercise the no-trade clause in his contract to stay in Kansas City, but Meche’s 4-8 record isn’t exactly what small-market KC is paying him eight figures to do.

7*-The Twins are skipping RHP Nick Blackburn.

8*-The Yankees’ plan is to skip LHP Andy Pettitte.

9*-LHPs Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson will move ahead of RHP Vin Mazzaro in the Athletics’ rotation.

10*-The Mariners eliminated any controversy over their rotation by optioning RHP Brandon Morrow to Triple-A Tacoma.

11*-Rookie RHP Jeff Niemann and LHP David Price will watch from the bullpen because the Rays are going with their more experienced starters.

12*-The Rangers have moved RHP Kevin Millwood, their nominal ace back in the rotation, so he wouldn’t start this week.

NL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Ari
--- --- --- --- @StL @StL @StL
--- --- --- --- Garland Haren* Davis
Atl
--- --- --- NYM NYM NYM NYM
--- --- --- Vazquez-2* Kawakami Lowe Jurrjens
ChC
--- --- --- @Was @Was @Was @Was
--- --- --- Harden Lilly Zambrano Wells-3*
Cin
--- --- --- Mil Mil Mil Mil
--- --- --- Bailey Arroyo Harang-4* Cueto
Col
--- --- --- @SD @SD @SD @SD
--- --- --- DeLaRosa Cook Jimenez Marquis
Fla
--- --- --- Phi Phi Phi Phi
--- --- --- Volstad Miller Nolasco Johnson-5*
Ho
--- --- --- @LAD @LAD @LAD @LAD
--- --- --- Rodriguez Oswalt Hampton Ortiz-6*
LAD
--- --- --- Ho Ho Ho Ho
--- --- --- Kuroda Wolf Billingsley Kershaw-7*
Mil
--- --- --- @Cin @Cin @Cin @Cin
--- --- --- Looper Suppan Gallardo Burns-8*
NYM
--- --- --- @Atl @Atl @Atl @Atl
--- --- --- Perez Hernandez Santana-9* Pelfrey
Phi
--- --- --- @Fla @Fla @Fla @Fla
--- --- --- Moyer Blanton Hamels Happ
Pit
--- --- --- --- SF SF SF
--- --- --- --- Maholm Morton Duke-10*
SrL
--- --- --- --- Ari Ari Ari
--- --- --- --- Pineiro Carpenter-11* Wainwright
SD
--- --- --- Col Col Col Col
--- --- --- Gaudin Geer Banks Correia
SF
--- --- --- --- @Pit @Pit @Pit
--- --- --- --- Lincecum-12* Cain Sanchez
Was
--- --- --- ChC ChC ChC ChC
--- --- --- Detwiler Lannan Olsen Zimmerman-13*

*-Diamondbacks RHP Dan Haren, who is in the All-Star game, probably wouldn’t start before Saturday. Arizona will skip RHP Max Scherzer’s turn this week.

**-RHP Javier Vazquez is likely to return to the Braves’ rotation Thursday. RHP Kris Medlen started today in place of Vazquez, who was suffering from an abdominal strain. Atlanta put its fifth starter, rookie RHP Tommy Hanson, on the high Class A Myrtle Beach roster.

3*-The Cubs’ current pitching has been determined because RHP Ryan Dempster (broken right big toe) went on the disabled list.

4*-The Reds are moving RHP Aaron Harang ahead of RHP Johnny Cueto, and skipping RHP Micah Owings for now.

5*-When the Marlins optioned LHP Sean West to Double-A Jacksonville, that left them with four starters.

6*-The odd man out of the Astros’ rotation is RHP Brian Moehler.

7*-The Dodgers are likely to skip over their fifth starter, RHP Jeff Weaver.

8*-Expect RHP Yovani Gallardo to move ahead of RHP Mike Burns in the Brewers’ rotation. RHP Seth McClung or newly recalled LHP Manny Parra could take Burns’ place Sunday.

9*-The Mets could skip LHP Oliver Perez instead of RHP Fernando Nieve, and could move LHP Johan Santana ahead in the rotation if he doesn’t pitch much in the All-Star game.

10*-The Pirates are skipping their fourth starter, RHP Ross Ohlendorf.

11*-With RHP Joel Pineiro pitching well, the Cardinals are likely to skip RHP Todd Wellemeyer. RHP Chris Carpenter’s start could move ahead or back a day, depending on whether he pitches in the All-Star game.

12*-The Giants have questions in their rotation. RHP Tim Lincecum could move back if he pitches in the All-Star game, and RHP Tim Cain might not be able to pitch in Ss. Louis Tuesday or make a start this week because a line drive hit him during Saturday’s start. San Francisco has LHP Barry Zito available to fill in.

13*-The Nationals would push RHP Craig Stammen’s next start back to next week.

Monday, July 6, 2009

5-50 rule predicts no 20-game winners, 58 HR for leader

Today, not the All-Star break, marks the halfway point of the major league season.

Teams have been playing for 13 of the 26 weeks in the season. Some teams have played more than 81 (half of the 162 games). I haven’t looked at the standings, but I’d be surprised if a number of teams haven’t played exactly 81. I’m now watching the Rangers and Angels, who both are playing their 81st game as I write.

This is a good time to look at the major league leaders in common fantasy statistical categories, plus a few others that tell us exactly how effective players have been for half a season.

As you look at these, remember the 5-50 Rule.

The final statistical leaders are likely to have totals 5 per cent poorer than the halfway totals multiplied by 2. So if a current stat leader has 50, the leading total at the end of the season should be about (50X2)-5%, or 100-5=95. For averages and ratios, the final leader should be about 95 per cent as good as the halfway leader’s figure. The easiest way to see that among the current leaders is in ERA, where the season leader would be about 5 per cent worse than Zack Greinke’s 2.00, or 2.10.

The reason for the 5 per cent half of the 5-50 Rule is that in each half of the season someone is likely to have a similar performance over that period of time. It’s not likely that one person could keep up that pace over 162 games, but two individuals could have that type of performance over an 80-or-so-game haul.

It’s just as likely that the top second-half performer could have a better “other” half of the year than what the first-half statistical leader produces over the final 80-some games. That begets the 50 portion of the 5-50 Rule, that about 50 per cent of the statistical leaders at season’s end would be the first-half leaders, and 50 per cent wouldn’t.

Here are the categories, the leaders through Sunday, their totals and the projected top season totals.

BA-Mariners OF Ichiro Suzuki, .362, .344
HR-Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols, 31, 58
RBI-Pujols, 82, 155
SB-Rays OF Carl Crawford, 41, 77
R-Pujols, 66, 125
H-Suzuki, 117, 222
On-base Percentage-Pujols, .460, .437
Slugging Percentage-Pujols, .739. .702. It’s safe to believe that Pujols will lead the majors in one or more of these categories this season.
W-Royals RHP Zack Greinke, Blue Jays RHP Roy Halladay, Rockies RHP Jason Marquis, Twins RHP Kevin Slowey and Red Sox RHP Tim Wakefield, 10, 19. Marquis got a head start toward reaching 19 by winning his 11th tonight. Slowey faces an uphill climb because he’s on the disabled list. The thing to note here is that we’re saying there is not likely to be a 20-game winner this season.
ERA-Greinke, 2.00, 2.10
S-Angels LHP Brian Fuentes, 24, 45
WHIP-Diamondbacks RHP Dan Haren, 0.83, 0.87
SO-Giants RHP Tim Lincecum, 141, 267
Opponents’ Batting Average-Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo, .193, .203
K/W Ratio-Haren, 7.93, 7.53

Hot and Not -- Gutierrez surprises

The players listed here were the major league statistical leaders during the last week. Batting averages are based on 20 at-bats, and ERA and WHIP on seven innings pitched. In most cases, we eliminate batters with an average lower than .280 and pitchers with ERAs above 4.00 from the Hot list. Keep in mind players’ career performance and current-season totals even more than current trends in deciding on whether to keep those players in your lineup.

Hot

Pos. Name, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

OF Matt Diaz, Braves 13-21 .619 1-5 1
1B Justin Morneau, Twins 12-25 .480 4-8 0
OF Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners 12-26 .462 1-2 0
2B/SS Maicer Izturis, Angels 11-24 .458 0-2 1
1B Lance Berkman, Astros 10-22 .455 1-3 1
OF Marlon Byrd, Rangers 9-20 .450 3-9 0
1B Cecil Fielder, Brewers 11-25 .440 3-3 0
1B Joey Votto, Reds 11-25 .440 1-4 0
OF Ryan Church, Mets 13-30 .433 0-3 1
1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals 9-21 .429 3-8 1
SS Edgar Renteria, Giants 9-21 .429 0-6 1
3B/1B/OF Mark Teahen, Royals 9-21 .429 0-1 0

This is Gutierrez’s second consecutive week among the majors’ leaders in batting average.

Home runs – Morneau 4; Byrd, Fielder, Pujols, Indians OF Shin-soo Choo, Nationals OF Adam Dunn, Blue Jays OF Adam Lind, Yankees OF Hideki Matsui, Cardinals OF Colby Rasmus, Diamondbacks 3B Mark Reynolds and Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez 3. Reynolds’ strikeouts – and not his criticism of his teammates’ effort – had him on the previous week’s Not list. A-Rod was on the RBI Hot list that week.

RBI – Brewers 2B/3B Casey McGehee 10; Byrd, Choo and Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez 9; Matsui, Morneau, Pujols and Angels OF Bobby Abreu 8. A week earlier, Ramirez was on the home runs Hot list. Abreu’s hot bat has driven in eight runs each of the last two weeks.

Stolen bases – Rangers SS Elvis Andrus and Dodgers OF Juan Pierre 5; Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury 4; Marlins 3B/2B Emilio Bonifacio, Athletics SS Orlando Cabrera, Rays OF Carl Crawford, Rangers OF Nelson Cruz, Red Sox SS Julio Lugo and 2B Dustin Pedroia, Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen and Diamondbacks OF Gerardo Parra 2. Cabrera and Crawford are following up a week on the batting average Hot list as major league leaders in steals.

Runs – Abreu 9; Fielder and Giants OF Randy Winn 8; Byrd, Pujols, Rasmus, Angels OF Vladimir Guerrero and Braves 2B/3B Martin Prado 7.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP Tim Lincecum, Giants 16.0 0.00 2-0 0.44 17:2
RHP Jason Marquis, Rockies 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.22 3:0
LHP Ricky Romero, Blue Jays 8.0 0.00 1-0 1.00 7:4
LHP Jorge DeLaRosa, Rockies 8.0 0.00 1-0 1.00 6:4
RHP Mike Pelfrey, Mets 7.2 0.00 1-0 1.04 6:2
LHP John Danks, White Sox 7.1 0.00 1-0 0.68 5:0
RHP Ryan Sadowski, Giants 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.57 4:1
RHP Jair Jurrjens, Braves 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.71 6:4
LHP Jon Lester, Red Sox 13.2 0.66 1-0 1.17 17:3
RHP Adam Wainwright, Cardinals 9.0 1.00 0-0 1.00 13:3

Romero is on this list of the majors’ best in ERA for the second consecutive week.

Wins – Lincecum, Rangers RHP Scott Feldman, Diamondbacks RHP Dan Haren, Royals RHP Luke Hochevar, Brewers RHP Braden Looper, Marlins RHP Ricky Nolasco and Astros RHP Roy Oswalt 2.

Saves – Angels LHP Brian Fuentes, Twins RHP Joe Nathan, Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera and Royals RHP Joakim Soria 3-for-3. It was Rivera’s second consecutive 3-for-3 week.

WHIP – Marquis 0.22, Lincecum 0.44, Oswalt 0.47, Orioles RHP Brad Bergesen 0.50; Nolasco 0.56.

Strikeout/walk ratio (10 Ks, at least a 2.5:1 ratio) – Haren 15:1; Dodgers LHP Randy Wolf 12:1; Pirates RHP Ross Ohlendorf 11:1; Nolasco 20:2; Lincecum 17:2; Cubs LHP Ted Lilly 16:2; Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo 12:2; Twins RHP Nick Blackburn 10:2; Lester 17:3; Dodgers RHP Chad Billingsley 16:3. Lincecum has been among the leaders in K/W ratio each of the last two weeks. Nolasco was on the ERA Hot list the previous week.

* * *

Not

Pos. Player, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres 1-21 .048 1-1 0
C/1B Victor Martinez, Indians 1-20 .050 0-0 0
2B Ian Kinsler, Rangers 2-26 .077 1-1 0
OF Jason Bay, Red Sox 2-25 .080 0-1 0
SS Jack Wilson, Pirates 2-24 .083 0-4 0
OF Justin Upton, D-backs 2-23 .087 0-0 0
1B Carlos Pena, Rays 2-21 .095 0-0 0
2B Kazuo Matsui, Astros 2-21 .095 0-1 1
OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 2-20 .100 0-0 0
SS/2B Brendan Harris, Twins 3-27 .111 0-1 0

Wilson was on the batting average Hot list last week. This list shows that some really good players had a really bad week.

The week’s hitless wonders were Dodgers 2B Orlando Hudson 0-for-16; Cardinals SS Tyler Greene 0-for-12; Mariners 1B Mike Sweeney and Blue Jays OF David Dellucci 0-for-11, and Phillies C Carlos Ruiz, Astros C Humberto Quintero and Rockies OF Carlos Gonzalez 0-for-10.

Walk/strikeout ratio (10 or more strikeouts) – Harris 0:10; Pirates 1B Adam LaRoche 1:11; Giants OF Aaron Rowand and Mets 3B David Wright 1:10; Mariners 1B/3B Russell Branyan 2:14; Rays OF Pat Burrell 3:10; Bay 4:13. In a fashion typical of his career, Branyan made this list a week after his home runs had put him on the Hot list. LaRoche again followed up a Hot week with a Not week.

Caught stealing – White Sox OF Scott Podsednik 1-for-3; Marlins 3B/2B Emilio Bonifacio and Diamondbacks OF Gerardo Parra 2-for-4; Dodgers OF Juan Pierre 5-for-7. Podsednik has been 1-for-3 two weeks in a row.

The pitchers on the next list each made two starts, doubly damaging their real and fantasy teams.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

LHP Rich Hill, Orioles 8.2 13.50 0-0 2.54 5:7
LHP Joe Saunders, Angels 9.0 13.00 0-1 2.33 4:8
LHP Cliff Lee, Indians 9.0 10.00 0-2 2.67 6:5
RHP Rick Porcello, Tigers 8.1 9.72 0-2 2.40 3:4
RHP Bronson Arroyo, Reds 10.1 8.71 0-2 2.61 4:6
RHP Rich Harden, Cubs 9.0 8.00 1-1 2.11 10:2
LHP Clayton Richard, White Sox 9.2 7.45 1-1 1.34 9:1
RHP Mike Burns, Brewers 11.1 7.15 1-1 1.41 5:2
RHP Josh Banks, Padres 11.1 7.15 1-0 1.41 4:2
RHP Brad Thompson, Cardinals 11.0 6.55 0-2 1.73 6:3

We warned you about Arroyo in our “Pitchers to seek and to avoid” Article.

Losses – Arroyo, Lee, Porcello, Thompson, Orioles RHP Danys Baez, Pirates LHP Zach Duke, Mets RHP Fernando Nieve, Rockies RHP Joel Peralta, Red Sox RHP Takashi Saito and Mets LHP Johan Santana 2.

Blown saves – Braves RHP Peter Moylan 0-for-2.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Role reversal: Consider NL batters, AL pitchers

There could be significant advantages in games, or at least innings, played this week in the National League. Or the advantage for the Nationals and particularly the Astros over most teams would be slight.

Houston and Washington are scheduled for seven games, plus the completion of a suspended game. Most NL teams would be playing seven games, but the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets and Pirates are scheduled for just six. Thus, those teams' hitters and relief pitchers would have a 14 per cent disadvantage over 10 teams in their league. The suspended game already is in extra innings, so it could drag on. Or it could mean just an extra at-bat for one National.

Every NL team is playing this week's schedule entirely at home or entirely on the road. Even the completion of the Nationals' home game from May 4 is taking place in Houston Thursday.

In the American League, just three teams have games split between the road and their home park. The Orioles and White Sox would play three times each home and road. The Yankees are scheduled to begin the week at home Monday against the Blue Jays, then to go on the road for six games.

Six AL teams -- the Red Sox, Royals, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays -- would play seven games. The eight others are scheduled for seven games.

The Red Sox (Athletics three games, Royals four) and Mariners (Orioles three, Rangers four) are scheduled to play seven games at home. Boston has one of the majors' best hitters' parks; Seattle is one of the best for pitchers.

Overall, it looks like a better week for pitchers than for hitters in the AL, but in the NL, the hitters would seem to have an advantage.

In addition to Seattle, Minnesota (Yankees and White Sox three games each) has one of the majors' best pitchers' parks, which would be in play for all six Twins games this week. Tampa Bay (Blue Jays and Athletics) also is scheduled for six home games in a park that slightly favors pitchers. The only AL park scheduled for six games in a positive hitting environment is at Detroit (Royals and Indians).

In contrast, the NL would have three of the majors' best hitting parks in use for seven games. Those are at Arizona (Padres three, Marlins four); Wrigley Field (Braves three, Cardinals four), and Colorado (Nationals three, Braves four). Thus, it might not be a bad week for Atlanta batters, even on the road. Also, hitters generally have the upper hand in Philadelphia (Reds four, Pirates three) and San Francisco (Marlins three, Padres four). So it might not be a bad week to consider Florida and San Diego batters.

The only National League parks favoring pitchers slightly all week would be at Houston (Pirates three, Nationals four-plus); Milwaukee (Cardinals and Dodgers three each), and Citi Field (Dodgers and Reds three each). In other words, leave your Dodgers batters on the bench.

With so many teams playing their entire schedule at home, there would be plenty of pitchers with two home starts this week. They would be RHPs John Smoltz, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Scott Baker, James Shields, Jon Garland, Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster, Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, Brian Moehler, Yovani Gallardo, Mike Pelfrey and Matt Cain, and LHPs Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard, Doug Davis, Mike Hampton, Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ and Barry Zito. Our highest recommendations are Beckett, who has made our Hot list two weeks in a row; Shields; Gallardo, and Cain, with Baker and Washburn as live longshots.

A long pitching chart, July 5-11

AL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Bal
@Se @Se @Se/ --- Tor Tor Tor
Bergesen Guthrie Hernandez/ --- Berken Hill Bergesen2
Bos
Oak Oak Oak/ KC KC KC KC
Smoltz Beckett Wakefield/ Penny Lester Smoltz2 Beckett2
CWS
--- Cle Cle Cle/ @Min @Min @Min
--- Buehrle Contreras Richard*/ Danks Floyd Buehrle2
Cle
--- @CWS @CWS @CWS/ @Det @Det @Det
--- Sowers Laffey** Huff/ Pavano Lee Sowers2
Det
KC KC KC/ --- Cle Cle Cle
Galarraga Verlander French-3*/ --- Jackson Porcello Verlander-4*
KC
@Det @Det @Det/ @Bos @Bos @Bos @Bos
Meche Chen Greinke/ Hochevar Bannister Meche2 Chen2
LAA
Tex Tex Tex/ --- NYY NYY NYY
Weaver Lackey Santana-5*/ --- O’Sullivan Saunders Weaver2
Min
--- NYY NYY NYY/ CWS CWS CWS
--- Baker Perkins Swarzak-6*/ Liriano Blackburn Baker2
NYY
Tor/ @Min @Min @Min/ @LAA @LAA @LAA
Pettitte/ Sabathia Burnett Mitre-7*/ Chamberlain Pettitte2 Sabathia2
Oak
@Bos @Bos @Bos/ --- @TB @TB @TB
Anderson Braden Cahill/ --- Mazzaro Gonzalez Anderson2
Se
Bal Bal Bal/ Tex Tex Tex Tex
Washburn Bedard-8* Vargas/ Hernandez Morrow Washburn2 Bedard2
TB
--- Tor Tor Tor/ Oak Oak Oak
--- Shields Kazmir Price/ Garza Niemann-9* Shields
Tex
@LAA @LAA @LAA/ @Se @Se @Se @Se
Millwood Padilla-10* Hunter/ Holland Feldman Millwood2 Padilla2
Tor
@NYY/ @TB @TB @TB/ @Bal @Bal @Bal
Romero/ Mills-11* Halladay Tallet/ Cecil-12* Romero2 Halladay2

*-The White Sox are moving LHP Clayton Richard ahead in their rotation to pitch on three days’ rest Thursday against the Indians. That would allow them to go with three more experienced pitchers, LHPs John Danks and Mark Buehrle and RHP Gavin Floyd, in a more important series against the Twins.

**-The Indians had hoped to bring LHP Aaron Laffey (oblique muscle injury) back from the disabled list to start Wednesday. However, he gave up seven runs in four innings in an injury-rehab start Friday for Triple-A Columbus. If Cleveland decides to give Laffey another rehab appearance, RHP Tomo Ohka could remain in the rotation for now.

3*-LHP Lucas French made his first major league start Friday, lasting into the fifth inning. That apparently was good enough to earn the 23-year-old control pitcher another start for the Tigers Wednesday.

4*-Detroit seems likely to move RHP Justin Verlander ahead of struggling RHP Armando Galarraga to start Sunday’s game. That would keep Verlander on his usual every-five-days schedule.

5*-Angels RHP Ervin Santana (strained elbow ligament) returned from the disabled list to give up six runs in five innings Friday. His next start is scheduled for Wednesday.

6*-Twins RHP Kevin Slowey (strained wrist) took his 10 wins to the disabled list. Starting in his place Wednesday would be RHP Anthony Swarzak, who pitched well for Minnesota in an earlier stint before being returned to Triple-A Rochester.

7*-Yankees RHP Chien-Ming Wang left Saturday’s start in the sixth inning, and is expected to return to the disabled list. A likely candidate to take Wang’s next scheduled start Thursday would be RHP Sergio Mitre, currently with Triple-A Scranton.

8*-LHP Erik Bedard (shoulder) threw 54 pitches in a simulated game Friday, and will come off the DL to start Tuesday’s game for the Mariners. He would replace LHP Garrett Olson in the rotation.

9*-With an off day Monday, the Rays put RHP Jeff Niemann into the bullpen for their weekend series at Texas. He’s expected to return to their rotation to start Saturday’s game.

10*-The Rangers pushed RHP Vicente Padilla (sore shoulder) back to Tuesday from this weekend’s scheduled start. If he couldn’t pitch Tuesday, a possibility would be to activate RHP Dustin Nippert, who has pitched well on his rehab assignment.

11*-The Blue Jays are recalling LHP Brad Mills from Triple-A Las Vegas to start Tuesday’s game. He’s just 2-8 with the 51s, but pitched eight shutout innings in his most recent game. Don’t be surprised if RHP Roy Halladay jumps ahead of Mills to get in another start Sunday before the All-Star game, even though that would be on three days’ rest.

12*-LHP Brett Cecil has replaced RHP Scott Richmond in Toronto’s rotation for starts today and Friday. Richmond (biceps tendinitis) is the ninth Jays pitcher to go on the disabled list this season.

NL
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun

Ari
SD SD SD/ Fla Fla Fla Fla
Garland Davis Scherzer/ Petit* Haren Garland2 Davis2
Atl
@ChC @ChC @ChC/ @Col @Col @Col @Col
Jurrjens Vazquez Kawakami/ Hanson Lowe Jurrjens2 Vazquez2
ChC
Atl Atl Atl/ --- StL StL StL-StL
Wells Dempster Zambrano/ --- Harden Lilly Wells2-Dempster2**
Cin
@Phi @Phi @Phi @Phi/ @NYM @NYM @NYM
Cueto Harang Bailey Owings/ Arroyo Cueto2 Harang2
Col
Was Was Was/ Atl Atl Atl Atl
Marquis Hammel DeLaRosa/ Cook Jimenez Marquis2 Hammel2
Fla
@SF @SF @SF/ @Ari @Ari @Ari @Ari
West Johnson Volstad/ Miller Nolasco West2 Johnson2
Ho
Pit Pit Pit/ @Was-Was Was Was Was
Hampton Moehler Rodriguez/ Hawkins-3*-Ortiz Oswalt Hampton2 Moehler2
LAD
--- @NYM @NYM @NYM/ @Mil @Mil @Mil
--- Kershaw Kuroda Wolf/ Billingsley Milton-4* Kershaw2
Mil
--- StL StL StL/ LAD LAD LAD
--- Gallardo Suppan Looper/ Burns McClung-5* Gallardo2
NYM
--- LAD LAD LAD/ Cin Cin Cin
--- Pelfrey Perez-6* Hernandez/ Nieve Santana Pelfrey2
Phi
Cin Cin Cin Cin/ Pit Pit Pit
Hamels Happ Lopez-7* Moyer/ Blanton Hamels2 Happ2
Pit
@Ho @Ho @Ho/ --- @Phi @Phi @Phi
Vasquez Maholm Morton/ --- Duke Ohlendorf Maholm2-8*
StL
--- @Mil @Mil @Mil/ @ChC @ChC @ChC-@ChC
--- Wainwright Wellemeyer Pineiro/ Thompson Carpenter Wainwright2-Lohse-9*
SD
@Ari @Ari @Ari/ @SF @SF @SF @SF
Silva Correia Gaudin/ Geer Banks Silva2 Correia2
SF
Fla Fla Fla/ SD SD SD SD
Cain Zito Sadowski/ Lincecum Johnson Cain2 Zito2
Was
@Col @Col @Col/ Ho-@Ho @Ho @Ho @Ho
Stammen-10* Zimmermann Detwiler/ MacDougal*-Lannan Olsen Stammen2 Zimmermann2
Detwiler Lannan Olsen

*-Diamondbacks RHP Yusmeiro Petit returned from the disabled list to start Saturday, and would be on schedule to pitch again Thursday.

**-Thursday’s off day gives the Cubs a chance to keep their regular rotation despite Sunday’s doubleheader against the Cardinals. RHP Randy Wells would have an extra day of rest, and RHP Ryan Dempster would be on his usual every-fifth-day schedule.

3*-In Houston, the Astros and Nationals will begin Thursday what amounts to a five-game series by completing a game suspended by rain May 5 in Washington. The Nationals will remain the home team, batting in the bottom of the 11th inning with the score tied 10-10, one out and a runner on first base. Houston RHP LaTroy Hawkins was pitching when the game was stopped, so he’d be the likely candidate to begin Thursday on the mound. That’s unless he works for an extended period in Wednesday’s game. Another possibility would be RHP Felipe Paulino.

4*-Off days have allowed the Dodgers to skip LHP Eric Milton’s turn in their rotation, but a fifth starter would be needed again Saturday. Milton is the most likely starter for that game, but RHP Claudio Vargas, just off the disabled list, also could be a candidate.

5*-When the Brewers again need a fifth starter Saturday, RHP Seth McClung is most likely to receive the call and the ball.

6*-Nearing the point of desperation, the Mets will bring ineffective LHP Oliver Perez off the disabled list to start Tuesday. That would send ineffective RHP Tim Redding to their ineffective bullpen.

7*-The Phillies dusted off RHP Rodrigo Lopez Friday for his first major league appearance in two years. He started and won that game, earning another shot in Wednesday’s game.

8*-It seems likely that the Pirates would bring LHP Paul Maholm back on his usual four days’ rest to start Sunday’s game, moving him ahead of less experienced RHP Virgil Vasquez.

9*-The Cardinals are planning to have RHP Kyle Lohse, who’s scheduled for an injury-rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Memphis, come off the disabled list as their sixth starter for Sunday’s doubleheader.

10*-The Nationals have returned RHP Craig Stammen to their rotation.

11*-Washington wouldn’t even need a pitcher to complete the suspended game Thursday if it scores a run in the bottom of the 11th. If that happens, the winning pitcher would be RHP Joel Hanrahan, now with the Pirates. The Nationals also will need a pinch runner. OF Elijah Dukes, the runner on first base, is now with Triple-A Syracuse. If the game goes into the 12th inning, Washington could use RHP Mike MacDougal to try to hold down the Astros.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

One-hitter, first-person account

My morning Email included a player blog provided by minor league RHP Ryan Tatusko for a comprehensive Rangers fan blog, the Newberg Report.

Tatusko wrote that he had a blog entry already prepared, but he changed to another topic because of Wednesday night’s events.

He was the starting pitcher for Bakersfield in the high Class A California League. He also finished the game – on a one-hitter, with the only hit against him in the ninth inning.

Tatusko’s blog post provided an inning-by-inning record of what he and some of his teammates were thinking during the game. It’s good reading. You can read his insights here – if you need to sign up, it’s free – and contact the pitcher/author here.

Texas League all-stars not offensive

Spent last night at the Texas League all-star game. It seemed more like the Eastern League all-star game because pitching dominated in the North’s 2-1 victory.

A number of factors contributed to the low score.

1. It was a still, 96-degree night, with a negligible breeze of 1 mph. Until this season, the prevailing west wind was capable of carrying almost any fly ball over the right field fence.

2. There are more outstanding pitching prospects than top batters in the league this season. The three best, in my estimation, were impressive. RHP Mat Latos of San Antonio (Padres) gave up a leadoff double to the game’s MVP, Northwest Arkansas (Royals) 3B Corey Smith. Then Latos retired the next six batters – three on strikeouts, including DH Mark Trumbo of Arkansas (Angels) with two out and Smith at third. RHP Jhoulys Chacin of Tulsa (Rockies) gave up only a two-out single in his scoreless inning, and LHP Pohlin Trinidad of Corpus Christi (Astros) needed just nine pitches in his inning even though a runner reached base on an error.

3. Home plate umpire Brian Sinclair had a generous strike zone, which contributed to no walks in the game.

There were no walks, but for much of the game it appeared that the only run would score on a bases-loaded hit by pitch, with RHP Jason Fernandez of Midland (Athletics) plunking Trumbo in the second inning. Fernandez did a good job escaping a big inning by starting a double play, fielding a grounder to his left and throwing back to his right toward home plate, and striking out Tulsa SS Daniel Mayora.

Each team scored an eighth-inning run. Arkansas’ Nate Sutton stole second and scored on a two-out single by Northwest Arkansas” Kurt Mertins to give the North a 2-0 lead. The South finally scored on Midland C Josh Donaldson’s single, a hit-and-run groundout and teammate Josh Horton’s double.

Smith played the whole game on a roster depleted by injuries and players promoted. He went 2-for-3, scored a run, was hit by a pitch and showed surprising agility in the field for a guy in the 240-pound range. But don’t look for the 27-year-old in a major league stadium, at least not for long.

Providing a more lasting impression was San Antonio left fielder Luis Durango. On his grounder, Arkansas LHP Trevor Reckling committed an error by lobbing a throw toward Tulsa 1B Jeff Kindel. The ball came at him through a sliver of sunlight caused by the odd configuration of buildings at Frisco’s Dr. Pepper Ballpark. Kindel flinched, and the ball sailed past him. It didn’t take long for Springfield (Cardinals) RF Tyler Henley to get to the ball, but his strong throw to third base was too late to get the speedy Durango.

There were plenty of scouts at the game. Don’t be surprised if you see some of these names coming up in major league trades near the deadline, or at least in the scuttlebutt preceding that deadline.