Every year on the Memorial Day weekend, I study which pitchers are likely to improve their results based on two metrics that show how well they have been pitching. At the same time, I come up with a list of pitchers whose performance is likely to fall off during the final two-thirds of the season.
Some of the pithcers on the way up are pretty obvious. Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber weren't winning early. But they are Cy Young Award winners. And the metrics I use -- opponents' batting average, or Hittability, and strikeout:walk ratio, or Strikeability -- showed that both were pitching well during April and May.
In the study, I included the 109 pitchers who at that point were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title (1 inning per team game). I compared their Hittability and Strikeability ratings with their standing in strikeouts and wins. Pitchers ranking high in combined Hittability and Strikeability but low in the counting stats are likely to be rewarded with better results going forward.
Others on the good list are Jimmy Nelson, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, Chase Anderson and Michael Wacha.
If any of those pitchers are a product of a small sample size or luck, rather than talent, I'd suggest Nelson, Anderson and possibly Sanchez. The others all have a track record.
There are just two pitchers I would expect to fall this season. Usually, there are seven or eight pitchers, sometimes even more on the bad list. This year's players due for a fall are Mark Buehrle and Mike Fiers. Buehrle was easy to see coming. In recent years, he has started fast and finished poorly. I remember telling someone it was OK to draft him, but he should be traded by midseason or the first sign that he was faltering.
In my rankings, I divide players into four groups as equal as possible, based on where they stand in each category. Buehrle began the year as one of the majors' biggest winners, even though he ranked in the bottom quarter in both Hittability and Strikeability. That made him not only an obvious candidate to fade, but also one of nine pitchers who should be replaced in the rotation as soon as someone better could be found.
There are seven pitchers in the top one-fourth in both Hittability and Strikeability. They are also good bets for success between now and October: Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer (another Cy Young Award winner), Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi, Felix Hernandez (Cy!) and Zack Greinke. The biggest surprises on that list are Hammel and Odorizzi, who is one of the reasons why the Rays still are contending in the American League East.
They are players you should seek to acquire in your fantasy leagues, if you don't already have them.
Pitchers to avoid or to dump, in addition to Buehrle, are Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Tim Hudson, Kyle Kendrick, Jordan Lyles, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman and Kyle Lobstein.
Hellickson has been at the top of the Hittability and Strikeability lists in years past. I'd suggest that he and Tillman might have previously undisclosed injuries. Hudson, Guthrie and Buehrle may simply be at the end of the line.
I'll have more posts on my Hittability/Strikeability ratings, and how they can be used to predict future performance.
Showing posts with label Clayton Kershaw. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Clayton Kershaw. Show all posts
Saturday, June 6, 2015
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Kershaw pitches most of opening game Down Under
Baseball season has arrived -- in Australia, at least.
Aussie fans got to see some of what we're used to Up Above. Included were a rain delay, a wind-blown home run and what passes as a pitching gem in these days.
Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw went all of 6 2/3 innings in a 3-1 victory over the Diamondbacks in Sydney early this morning (tonight in Australia). I hate to be an old fart, but Juan Marichal and Don Drysdale and Ferguson Jenkins would have spit on a 6 2/3-inning opening game. I'm pretty sure Nolan Ryan still would. And you can't tell me there's no correlation between pitch counts and inning counts and the rash of pitching injuries we're seeing in the 21st century. But that's a topic for another day.
OF Scott Van Slyke hit the wind-blown homer for LA. RF Yasiel Puig, whose has been on the interstate throughout the exhibition games, went 0-for-5. How silly does all that outrage about not putting him in last year's All-Star Game seem now?
The other topic on my soapbox for today is that it's a shame today's (in the U.S.) two games aren't on a more available television outlet than just the MLB Network and mlb.tv. Especially if you're going to take the games to another continent, you owe it to your domestic fan base to get their baseball juices flowing.
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have another game Sunday afternoon in Australia (10 p.m. EDT tonight), with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (he's getting good enough that I know can type his name without having to look up which vowels go where) against Arizona RHP Trevor Cahill. You can probably follow it on Gameday. I'll probably check in to see what the simulated hitters' background at Sydney Cricket Grounds looks like.
In a way it's a good thing that I neither have the MLB Network in our Uverse package, nor have mlb.tv for this year yet. I'm supposed to be getting a discounted package as a sometime official scorer, but I haven't heard back on my request. But by being part of the other half for now, I see that it's an injustice to the universe of baseball fans. Does baseball actually think that we wouldn't buy the mlb.tv package if we could get two games from a foreign land relatively for free. What about the other 2,400 or so games this season?
The beginning of the baseball season, on top of everything else in life, also means there's a whole lot I could be writing about that I haven't written yet.
Life has intruded on baseball a lot the last couple of weeks -- nothing bad, just a whole lot of stuff to do. Thus I haven't had or taken the time to write about Reds LHP Aroldis Chapman's frightening injury and a lot of battles for positions, spots in rotations and bullpens and other baseball concerns.
I hope to do a lot more in the next few days, even with three fantasy drafts in Sunday. Can't do that now, because I have a Stars game this afternoon. But there will be more, and I hope a return to a daily blogging schedule.
* * *
Basketball. Our league is in the playoffs, and my team's late-season slide has continued. Through the first 5 of 14 days in the first round, I'm tied 4-4 with the team that finished fourth during the regular season. The reason that I'm tied and not ahead comes down to one word: Shooting. I trail in field goal and free throw percentage, 3-point field goals and points. All shooting.
Today's active players are three big men and G Victor Oladipo. I'm hoping the big guys get plenty of put-back opportunities to improve my 43% shooting, without sucking at the foul line. Even Carmelo Anthony scored just 21 points Friday, when the high scorer among my 10 active players was Amar'e Stoudemire with 22. Belated props (does anyone say that anymore) to Ricky Rubio on his triple double Wednesday. That certainly helped my team in assists and rebounds. I'm also leading in steals and killing in blocks.
Most of the basketball news these days is about the NCAA tournament. I'm in three pick-'em pools and another that pays off for each game after those phony first four. It's like a traditional Super Bowl pool, based on the final score -- with my square representing the same score (I think winner ending in 7, loser ending in 3) for all 66 opportunities, including halftime of the Final Four games. So it's 66 chances to "win" among 100 contestants -- even if winning means getting half of my money back for a first-round win and I think breaking even with a Round of 32 win. I split up the upsets for my pick-'em pools, so that I've had most of the upsets. I don't know whether it will be good to have those evenly distributed among the three or to have one entry heavy with correctly picked upsets. Hedging my bets, I went mostly with chalk in the most expensive pool, figuring that I might not win as much but at least I wouldn't lose as much by playing it safe.
* * *
Hockey. I'm confused about the game limits in my league. While I've been rationing my playing time, the team directly ahead of me in second place already has exceeded the games limit. The only place I've been able to find for a clarification has been a message board on espy.com. I don't expect an answer, and I don't expect to move up in the standings after being in third place for months.
Aussie fans got to see some of what we're used to Up Above. Included were a rain delay, a wind-blown home run and what passes as a pitching gem in these days.
Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw went all of 6 2/3 innings in a 3-1 victory over the Diamondbacks in Sydney early this morning (tonight in Australia). I hate to be an old fart, but Juan Marichal and Don Drysdale and Ferguson Jenkins would have spit on a 6 2/3-inning opening game. I'm pretty sure Nolan Ryan still would. And you can't tell me there's no correlation between pitch counts and inning counts and the rash of pitching injuries we're seeing in the 21st century. But that's a topic for another day.
OF Scott Van Slyke hit the wind-blown homer for LA. RF Yasiel Puig, whose has been on the interstate throughout the exhibition games, went 0-for-5. How silly does all that outrage about not putting him in last year's All-Star Game seem now?
The other topic on my soapbox for today is that it's a shame today's (in the U.S.) two games aren't on a more available television outlet than just the MLB Network and mlb.tv. Especially if you're going to take the games to another continent, you owe it to your domestic fan base to get their baseball juices flowing.
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have another game Sunday afternoon in Australia (10 p.m. EDT tonight), with LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (he's getting good enough that I know can type his name without having to look up which vowels go where) against Arizona RHP Trevor Cahill. You can probably follow it on Gameday. I'll probably check in to see what the simulated hitters' background at Sydney Cricket Grounds looks like.
In a way it's a good thing that I neither have the MLB Network in our Uverse package, nor have mlb.tv for this year yet. I'm supposed to be getting a discounted package as a sometime official scorer, but I haven't heard back on my request. But by being part of the other half for now, I see that it's an injustice to the universe of baseball fans. Does baseball actually think that we wouldn't buy the mlb.tv package if we could get two games from a foreign land relatively for free. What about the other 2,400 or so games this season?
The beginning of the baseball season, on top of everything else in life, also means there's a whole lot I could be writing about that I haven't written yet.
Life has intruded on baseball a lot the last couple of weeks -- nothing bad, just a whole lot of stuff to do. Thus I haven't had or taken the time to write about Reds LHP Aroldis Chapman's frightening injury and a lot of battles for positions, spots in rotations and bullpens and other baseball concerns.
I hope to do a lot more in the next few days, even with three fantasy drafts in Sunday. Can't do that now, because I have a Stars game this afternoon. But there will be more, and I hope a return to a daily blogging schedule.
* * *
Basketball. Our league is in the playoffs, and my team's late-season slide has continued. Through the first 5 of 14 days in the first round, I'm tied 4-4 with the team that finished fourth during the regular season. The reason that I'm tied and not ahead comes down to one word: Shooting. I trail in field goal and free throw percentage, 3-point field goals and points. All shooting.
Today's active players are three big men and G Victor Oladipo. I'm hoping the big guys get plenty of put-back opportunities to improve my 43% shooting, without sucking at the foul line. Even Carmelo Anthony scored just 21 points Friday, when the high scorer among my 10 active players was Amar'e Stoudemire with 22. Belated props (does anyone say that anymore) to Ricky Rubio on his triple double Wednesday. That certainly helped my team in assists and rebounds. I'm also leading in steals and killing in blocks.
Most of the basketball news these days is about the NCAA tournament. I'm in three pick-'em pools and another that pays off for each game after those phony first four. It's like a traditional Super Bowl pool, based on the final score -- with my square representing the same score (I think winner ending in 7, loser ending in 3) for all 66 opportunities, including halftime of the Final Four games. So it's 66 chances to "win" among 100 contestants -- even if winning means getting half of my money back for a first-round win and I think breaking even with a Round of 32 win. I split up the upsets for my pick-'em pools, so that I've had most of the upsets. I don't know whether it will be good to have those evenly distributed among the three or to have one entry heavy with correctly picked upsets. Hedging my bets, I went mostly with chalk in the most expensive pool, figuring that I might not win as much but at least I wouldn't lose as much by playing it safe.
* * *
Hockey. I'm confused about the game limits in my league. While I've been rationing my playing time, the team directly ahead of me in second place already has exceeded the games limit. The only place I've been able to find for a clarification has been a message board on espy.com. I don't expect an answer, and I don't expect to move up in the standings after being in third place for months.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Morse goes not-deep-enough twice
Day by day, we're getting closer to real major league baseball.
Five exhibition games Wednesday featured more-or-less major league teams against each other, and a team in Miami Marlins uniforms defeated the University of Miami.
-- There were highlights -- particularly in Scottsdale, Ariz.
There, Athletics RF Josh Reddick and Giants -- I don't know, OF? -- Michael Morse engaged in a form of deja vu. Reddick twice reached over the fence to catch balls that Morse drove to the opposite field. Instead of home runs, they became outs -- three, in fact, because Reddick doubled off a mentally dozing baserunner at second base after the second and less spectacular catch. Oakland took a 10-0 lead with a six-run fourth inning and went on to win 10-5. It appears that they have built some kind of pavilion beyond the right field fence in my favorite older park in Arizona.
-- There were hints of mid-season form.
Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista hit a home run in his first at-bat as Toronto defeated the Phillies 4-3 in a game stopped after seven innings because of rain in Clearwater, Fla.
Reds OF Billy Hamilton stole his first of no doubt many bases in an 8-3 victory over the Indians.
As leadoff batter, Yankees CF Jacoby Ellsbury walked and scored in each of the first two innings. However, the Pirates rallied to win 6-5. 1B Gaby Sanchez might have taken note when it was Sanchez -- C Tony Sanchez -- who hit a game-tying three-run homer and 1B Chris McGuiness, hoping to become the left-handed-batting part of a platoon, who followed with a single that delivered the deciding run.
-- There were examples of fast-and-loose rules in spring training.
It also rained near Disney World, where the Tigers took a 6-5 lead on Hernan Perez's two-run single in the top of the ninth inning. The Braves had a runner on base and two out when the game was called because of rain. Instead of reverting to the last completed inning, the game was ruled a 6-5 Detroit victory. For Atlanta, Matt Lipka -- McKinney (Texas) HS teammate of Dodgers prospect Zach Lee -- entered the game late. Lipka struck out in both at-bats, but threw out Perez at the plate in the ninth.
-- There was an example of a spring appearance that most likely meant virtually nothing.
The Diamondbacks defeated the Dodgers 4-1, scoring three runs in two innings against LHP Clayton Kershaw. See me in August to find out how Kershaw's doing then.
-- There were injury updates.
Angels fans might have breathed more easily when the team said OF Josh Hamilton, on crutches Tuesday, would miss just two weeks because of a strained calf muscle.
Mets LHP Jonathan Niese went back to New York to have an MRI exam on his shoulder.
Orioles 3B Manny Machado will have his injured left knee reevaluated March 18, two weeks before the season is scheduled to begin.
-- There was the retirement of a player we didn't even know still had been thinking about playing.
RHP Carl Pavano, who didn't pitch last season, announced that he has retired. Thanks. We'll all go and cross him off our fantasy draft lists.
-- There was a move that probably means nothing to either big-league team, or any fantasy team.
The White Sox claim RHP Maikel Cleto on waivers from the Royals.
-- There will be even more games Thursday.
Still, not every team will be in action. Nineteen major league extended rosters will be well used in 12 games. Those include a Red Sox doubleheader against first Northeastern University and then Boston College. The Diamondbacks will split into two squads, probably with at least 25 players each, going against the Cubs and Dodgers hordes. The Marlins also have a college opponent, meaning that they might have at least one two-game winning streak in 2014.
* * *
Hockey. The NHL came back! Part of my team did. I remained at 67 points, but moved two points closer to second place because the current second-place team dropped to 74. My players totaled minus-10. Now I love Jarome Iginla as a player, and he did have a power-play assist Wednesday, but he still managed to be minus-3 by himself.
* * *
Basketball. Team Fresh Prints moved into a 6-1-1 lead. Despite shooting better than 50 percent from the field, it still trails .5094-.5026 in field goal percentage. The tie is in blocks. My best hope there is Serge Ibaka, but he has just two games remaining this week. However, Carmelo Anthony, David West and potentially Raymond Felton are scheduled for three more.
Five exhibition games Wednesday featured more-or-less major league teams against each other, and a team in Miami Marlins uniforms defeated the University of Miami.
-- There were highlights -- particularly in Scottsdale, Ariz.
There, Athletics RF Josh Reddick and Giants -- I don't know, OF? -- Michael Morse engaged in a form of deja vu. Reddick twice reached over the fence to catch balls that Morse drove to the opposite field. Instead of home runs, they became outs -- three, in fact, because Reddick doubled off a mentally dozing baserunner at second base after the second and less spectacular catch. Oakland took a 10-0 lead with a six-run fourth inning and went on to win 10-5. It appears that they have built some kind of pavilion beyond the right field fence in my favorite older park in Arizona.
-- There were hints of mid-season form.
Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista hit a home run in his first at-bat as Toronto defeated the Phillies 4-3 in a game stopped after seven innings because of rain in Clearwater, Fla.
Reds OF Billy Hamilton stole his first of no doubt many bases in an 8-3 victory over the Indians.
As leadoff batter, Yankees CF Jacoby Ellsbury walked and scored in each of the first two innings. However, the Pirates rallied to win 6-5. 1B Gaby Sanchez might have taken note when it was Sanchez -- C Tony Sanchez -- who hit a game-tying three-run homer and 1B Chris McGuiness, hoping to become the left-handed-batting part of a platoon, who followed with a single that delivered the deciding run.
-- There were examples of fast-and-loose rules in spring training.
It also rained near Disney World, where the Tigers took a 6-5 lead on Hernan Perez's two-run single in the top of the ninth inning. The Braves had a runner on base and two out when the game was called because of rain. Instead of reverting to the last completed inning, the game was ruled a 6-5 Detroit victory. For Atlanta, Matt Lipka -- McKinney (Texas) HS teammate of Dodgers prospect Zach Lee -- entered the game late. Lipka struck out in both at-bats, but threw out Perez at the plate in the ninth.
-- There was an example of a spring appearance that most likely meant virtually nothing.
The Diamondbacks defeated the Dodgers 4-1, scoring three runs in two innings against LHP Clayton Kershaw. See me in August to find out how Kershaw's doing then.
-- There were injury updates.
Angels fans might have breathed more easily when the team said OF Josh Hamilton, on crutches Tuesday, would miss just two weeks because of a strained calf muscle.
Mets LHP Jonathan Niese went back to New York to have an MRI exam on his shoulder.
Orioles 3B Manny Machado will have his injured left knee reevaluated March 18, two weeks before the season is scheduled to begin.
-- There was the retirement of a player we didn't even know still had been thinking about playing.
RHP Carl Pavano, who didn't pitch last season, announced that he has retired. Thanks. We'll all go and cross him off our fantasy draft lists.
-- There was a move that probably means nothing to either big-league team, or any fantasy team.
The White Sox claim RHP Maikel Cleto on waivers from the Royals.
-- There will be even more games Thursday.
Still, not every team will be in action. Nineteen major league extended rosters will be well used in 12 games. Those include a Red Sox doubleheader against first Northeastern University and then Boston College. The Diamondbacks will split into two squads, probably with at least 25 players each, going against the Cubs and Dodgers hordes. The Marlins also have a college opponent, meaning that they might have at least one two-game winning streak in 2014.
* * *
Hockey. The NHL came back! Part of my team did. I remained at 67 points, but moved two points closer to second place because the current second-place team dropped to 74. My players totaled minus-10. Now I love Jarome Iginla as a player, and he did have a power-play assist Wednesday, but he still managed to be minus-3 by himself.
* * *
Basketball. Team Fresh Prints moved into a 6-1-1 lead. Despite shooting better than 50 percent from the field, it still trails .5094-.5026 in field goal percentage. The tie is in blocks. My best hope there is Serge Ibaka, but he has just two games remaining this week. However, Carmelo Anthony, David West and potentially Raymond Felton are scheduled for three more.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Mamas, let your babies grow up to be pitchers
It looks like a good week to be a major league pitcher. Almost as good is being agent Casey Close.
The Rays and LHP David Price announced a $14-million contract for 2014, the largest in franchise history. This tells me that they're all in for this season, and that Price wouldn't be available in trade unless Tampa Bay is out of the race near the trade deadline. It's also conceivable that if the team looks strong going forward, the Rays might even try to sign him to some sort of rewarding contract of medium-range length -- maybe $75 for three years, with options for additional years and reachable incentive clauses.
That might not be enough, because there are reports that the Dodgers and LHP Clayton Kershaw have agreed on a 7-year, $215-million deal that would be a record for a pitcher anywhere.
Waiting in the wings, for a contract that could be escalating by the day, is free-agent Japanese RHP Masahiro Tanaka, who also is represented by Close.
Even the remaining free-agent starting pitchers such as RHPs Matt Garza and Bronson Arroyo could see their contracts bumped up a few hundred thousand by the pitching sellers' market. You never know when a starting pitcher might fall down the stairs.
Continuing another recent trend of oldtimers/has-beens/previously enjoyed players contemplating a return to the bigs, LHP Dontrelle Willis signed a minor league contract with the Giants.
Other big news from San Francisco, via Venezuela, is that 3B Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval has lost 42 pounds (19 kilos) while playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. It's a contract year for the gifted hitter. How much he makes might depend on how much he weighs as the 2014-15 off-season becomes a reality.
* * *
Hockey. A couple of things, one of them not funny at all, have happened during the past few days. When I turned on my computer at the Oilers-Stars game Tuesday night, I couldn't see the screen. After a while, I could vaguely make out my sign-on prompt. Eventually, if I swirled my finger around the touch pad enough, I could find the cursor and guess whether I was clicking on the right icon. I was able to write about 300 words about the first two periods. Then I realized I would have to open AOL to send in the article to The Associated Press after I'd written.
Could not find the cursor, nor the Firefox icon. I realized I would have to write the article on my phone. It's a three-part sequence. First, write 150 words or so with the basic information and send that in. Second, add enough on to that for about 500 words and send. Third, ideally, interview some players and coaches, and add their quotes and a catchy lead for an article of about 900 words.
By the time the game ended, I hadn't even finished my 150 words. Those little keys on the Galaxy 4 are way smaller than my fingers. Got that done, but missed any interview opportunities, while I was writing the rest of the 500-worder. The Stars provided me with audio of their post-game interviews, and another freelancer sent me quotes from the Oilers' side. By the time I sent the new material and indicated where it should go, it was well past the time the article was expected in New York. I must say, though, that the editors there were very understanding.
Did some research Wednesday and discovered that it's not uncommon for the backlight on HP laptops to go out. Too bad, because generally I like the computer, but I'd never had a problem with backlighting in any of the -- I don't know, half-dozen? dozen? -- computers I've had before. I visited the Geek Squad and was preparing to have the geeks send away my computer for a couple of weeks for not-inexpensive repairs when the technician casually mentioned that they might have to wipe my computer. Wipe? Yes, as in clearing everything from the hard drive. That screech you hear is me putting the brakes on. I can't have everything erased. I have some projects and databases there that I've worked on literally for months. So the alternative, I was told was getting a VGA cable and hooking my laptop up to a TV. Next stop, Target, for a VGA cable. When I got home, that cable didn't really work, but fortunately the HDMI cable (which before seemed to have no apparent purpose) did. Thus, I'm writing this now from my dark laptop to a bright screen on our new bedroom TV. That's in part because I still find it very cumbersome to use the MacBook Pro at home, which I will be taking to tonight's Bruins-Stars game. Wish me luck.
BTW, I still have some things to clear from my HP laptop before I send it away. So by Friday, I expect to be doing all of my work on the MacBook.
Aside: if anyone from Samsung, HP or Apple wants to sponsor this blog, be my guest. You're welcome for the product placements.
Also on Wednesday, I interviewed the Stars' Brenden Dillon and Alex Goligoski about skate/foot protectors and whether those facilitate blocking shots for an article another AP writer is doing. Didn't sound like a very interesting idea to me at first, but the conversations I had with the players were very informative, dare I say enlightening, on the topic. That article is supposed to be on the wire sometime next week.
Dillon happens to be on my fantasy team, about which I have two things to say. 1) I will not write anything more about plus/minus. In the first two nights after I pointed out that I had skyrocketed within 4 of the next-higher team in plus/minus, my players combined to go minus-5 each night. I saw a note from Wednesday's game that Keith Yandle was only minus-1 or minus-2, which was an improvement because he had been minus-3 in each of the previous two games. 2) I will not write anything more about goalies until I figure them out. Don't hold your breath. With Eddie Lack giving up something like 200 goals Wednesday, I'm now at the bottom of the league in both goals against and save percentage. It helps that Steve Mason has won his last two starts, but didn't help at all that he essentially sucked in both games while the Flyers scored a bunch of goals at the other end.
* * *
Basketball. I'm just now taking a look at Team Fresh Prints' performance Wednesday night. Be right back. ... While the teams ahead of me in the standings are playing each other, I'm leading this week 6-1-1, tied in 3-pointers and trailing in field goal percentage.
Hmmm. The Nets and Hawks are playing a Thursday afternoon game in Atlanta. How quaint. And, look, Joe Johnson has 15 of Brooklyn's first 31 points, shooting 6 for 8 from the field. Too bad, because I hadn't adjusted my roster yet today and he's on my bench. I did move my other two bench players, whose teams are playing tonight, back into the starting lineup.
The Rays and LHP David Price announced a $14-million contract for 2014, the largest in franchise history. This tells me that they're all in for this season, and that Price wouldn't be available in trade unless Tampa Bay is out of the race near the trade deadline. It's also conceivable that if the team looks strong going forward, the Rays might even try to sign him to some sort of rewarding contract of medium-range length -- maybe $75 for three years, with options for additional years and reachable incentive clauses.
That might not be enough, because there are reports that the Dodgers and LHP Clayton Kershaw have agreed on a 7-year, $215-million deal that would be a record for a pitcher anywhere.
Waiting in the wings, for a contract that could be escalating by the day, is free-agent Japanese RHP Masahiro Tanaka, who also is represented by Close.
Even the remaining free-agent starting pitchers such as RHPs Matt Garza and Bronson Arroyo could see their contracts bumped up a few hundred thousand by the pitching sellers' market. You never know when a starting pitcher might fall down the stairs.
Continuing another recent trend of oldtimers/has-beens/previously enjoyed players contemplating a return to the bigs, LHP Dontrelle Willis signed a minor league contract with the Giants.
Other big news from San Francisco, via Venezuela, is that 3B Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval has lost 42 pounds (19 kilos) while playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. It's a contract year for the gifted hitter. How much he makes might depend on how much he weighs as the 2014-15 off-season becomes a reality.
* * *
Hockey. A couple of things, one of them not funny at all, have happened during the past few days. When I turned on my computer at the Oilers-Stars game Tuesday night, I couldn't see the screen. After a while, I could vaguely make out my sign-on prompt. Eventually, if I swirled my finger around the touch pad enough, I could find the cursor and guess whether I was clicking on the right icon. I was able to write about 300 words about the first two periods. Then I realized I would have to open AOL to send in the article to The Associated Press after I'd written.
Could not find the cursor, nor the Firefox icon. I realized I would have to write the article on my phone. It's a three-part sequence. First, write 150 words or so with the basic information and send that in. Second, add enough on to that for about 500 words and send. Third, ideally, interview some players and coaches, and add their quotes and a catchy lead for an article of about 900 words.
By the time the game ended, I hadn't even finished my 150 words. Those little keys on the Galaxy 4 are way smaller than my fingers. Got that done, but missed any interview opportunities, while I was writing the rest of the 500-worder. The Stars provided me with audio of their post-game interviews, and another freelancer sent me quotes from the Oilers' side. By the time I sent the new material and indicated where it should go, it was well past the time the article was expected in New York. I must say, though, that the editors there were very understanding.
Did some research Wednesday and discovered that it's not uncommon for the backlight on HP laptops to go out. Too bad, because generally I like the computer, but I'd never had a problem with backlighting in any of the -- I don't know, half-dozen? dozen? -- computers I've had before. I visited the Geek Squad and was preparing to have the geeks send away my computer for a couple of weeks for not-inexpensive repairs when the technician casually mentioned that they might have to wipe my computer. Wipe? Yes, as in clearing everything from the hard drive. That screech you hear is me putting the brakes on. I can't have everything erased. I have some projects and databases there that I've worked on literally for months. So the alternative, I was told was getting a VGA cable and hooking my laptop up to a TV. Next stop, Target, for a VGA cable. When I got home, that cable didn't really work, but fortunately the HDMI cable (which before seemed to have no apparent purpose) did. Thus, I'm writing this now from my dark laptop to a bright screen on our new bedroom TV. That's in part because I still find it very cumbersome to use the MacBook Pro at home, which I will be taking to tonight's Bruins-Stars game. Wish me luck.
BTW, I still have some things to clear from my HP laptop before I send it away. So by Friday, I expect to be doing all of my work on the MacBook.
Aside: if anyone from Samsung, HP or Apple wants to sponsor this blog, be my guest. You're welcome for the product placements.
Also on Wednesday, I interviewed the Stars' Brenden Dillon and Alex Goligoski about skate/foot protectors and whether those facilitate blocking shots for an article another AP writer is doing. Didn't sound like a very interesting idea to me at first, but the conversations I had with the players were very informative, dare I say enlightening, on the topic. That article is supposed to be on the wire sometime next week.
Dillon happens to be on my fantasy team, about which I have two things to say. 1) I will not write anything more about plus/minus. In the first two nights after I pointed out that I had skyrocketed within 4 of the next-higher team in plus/minus, my players combined to go minus-5 each night. I saw a note from Wednesday's game that Keith Yandle was only minus-1 or minus-2, which was an improvement because he had been minus-3 in each of the previous two games. 2) I will not write anything more about goalies until I figure them out. Don't hold your breath. With Eddie Lack giving up something like 200 goals Wednesday, I'm now at the bottom of the league in both goals against and save percentage. It helps that Steve Mason has won his last two starts, but didn't help at all that he essentially sucked in both games while the Flyers scored a bunch of goals at the other end.
* * *
Basketball. I'm just now taking a look at Team Fresh Prints' performance Wednesday night. Be right back. ... While the teams ahead of me in the standings are playing each other, I'm leading this week 6-1-1, tied in 3-pointers and trailing in field goal percentage.
Hmmm. The Nets and Hawks are playing a Thursday afternoon game in Atlanta. How quaint. And, look, Joe Johnson has 15 of Brooklyn's first 31 points, shooting 6 for 8 from the field. Too bad, because I hadn't adjusted my roster yet today and he's on my bench. I did move my other two bench players, whose teams are playing tonight, back into the starting lineup.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Blue Jays, Romero could have another big week
We’re later than we like to be with this week’s Preview and Pitching Chart. Our target, which is very difficult to meet, is Saturday morning. But we’ll be getting these Pitching Charts to you during the weekend.
NOTE: We have extended the free period for these Emails through Sunday, April 18. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
Before then, we’ll tell you how you can subscribe to receive these Emails five or more times per week, along with timely Articles and other information that will be added to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Subscriptions will include Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay, and he was only one of our picks that were on the money. Choosing him was inspired; he was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Let us know of your interest and what you’d like to see by Emailing lary@fantasybaseballscout.com.
Thanks for your continuing interest in and support of Fantasy Baseball Scout. Thanks also to those who have made suggestions as to content they’d like to see. A reminder: Subscribers will be able to ask questions specific to their fantasy teams and leagues, and receive answers through these Emails, the web site or personal Emails.
Projected starting pitchers, April 12-18, 2010
AL Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Bal TB-Guthrie TB-Matusz TB-Bergesen @Oak-Hrnandez @Oak-Millwood @Oak-Guthrie2 @Oak-Matusz2
Bos @Min-Lester --- @Min-Lackey @Min-Wakfield TB-Beckett TB-Bchholz* TB-Lester2
CWS @Tor-Peavy @Tor-Floyd @Tor-Danks @Tor-Garcia @Cle-Buehrle @Cle-Peavy2 @Cle-Floyd2
Cle Tex-Carmona --- Tex-Mastersn Tex-Huff CWS-Talbot CWS-Wstbrook CWS-Crmona2
Det KC-Scherzer KC-Willis KC-Porcello --- @Se-Bondrmn @Se-Verlander @Se-Scherzer2
KC @Det-Hochevar @Det-Bannister @Det-Davies --- @Min-Greinke @Min-Meche @Min-Hochevr2
LAA --- @NYY-Santana @NYY-Pineiro @NYY-Kazmir** @Tor-Weaver @Tor-Saunders @Tor-Santana2
Min Bos-Pavano --- Bos-Slowey Bos-Liriano KC-Baker KC-Blckburn KC-Pavano2
NYY --- LAA-Pettitte LAA-Vazquez LAA-Hughs-3* Tex-Sabathia Tex-Burnett Tex-Pettitte2
Oak @Se-Duchschr @Se-Anderson @Se-Gonzalez Bal-Sheets Bal-Braden Bal-Dchschr2 Bal-Andersn2
Se Oak-Rwd-Smh Oak-Fister Oak-Vargas --- Det-Hrnandez Det-Snell Det-Rd-Smh2
TB @Bal-Garza @Bal-Niemann @Bal-Price --- @Bos-Davis @Bos-Shields @Bos-Garza2
Tex @Cle-Harden --- @Cle-Wilson @Cle-Lewis @NYY-Harrison @NYY-Feldman @NYY-Harden2
Tor CWS-Tallet CWS-Romero CWS-Morrow CWS-Eveland LAA-Marcum LAA-Tallet2 LAA-Romero2
*-The Red Sox could move LHP Jon Lester ahead of RHP Clay Buchholz, their fifth starter.
**-LHP Scott Kazmir is expected to be ready to start Thursday or even Wednesday for the Angels. In an injury-rehab start Friday at high Class A Rancho Cucamonga against Inland Empire (Dodgers organization), Kazmir pitched 6 1/3 innings with a fastball that reached 93 mph
3*-The Yankees would have their fifth starter, RHP Phil Hughes, pitch against the Angels Thursday so New York could have two left-handers start against a Rangers lineup heavy with left-handed batters Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis and Julio Borbon.
AL Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Ari --- @LAD-Kennedy @LAD-Lopez @LAD-Haren @SD-Jackson @SD-Benson* @SD-Knnedy2
Atl @SD-Jurrjens --- @SD-Hanson @SD-Hudson Col-Lowe Col-Kawakmi Col-Jurrjens2
ChC Mil-Dempster --- Mil-Wells Mil-Zmbno** Ho-Silva Ho-Gorzlany Ho-Dempstr2
Cin @Fla-Cueto @Fla-Arryo-3* @Fla-Bailey @Fla-Harang @Pit-Leake @Pit-Cueto2 @Pit-Arroyo2
Col --- NYM-Smith NYM-Cook NYM-DeLaRsa @Atl-Hammel @Atl-Jimenez @Atl-Smith2
Fla Cin-Nolasco Cin-Robertsn Cin-Volstad Cin-Johnson @Phi-Sanchez @Phi-Nolasco2 @Phi-Robrtsn2
Ho @StL-Rdriguez --- @StL-Myers @StL-Norris @ChC-Paulino @ChC-Oswalt @ChC-Rdrguez2
LAD --- Ari-Kershaw Ari-Blingsley Ari-Kuroda SF-Padilla SF-Haeger SF-Kershaw2
Mil @ChC-Davis --- @ChC-Bush @ChC-Suppn-4* @Was-Gallardo @Was-Wolf @Was-Davis2
NYM --- @Col-Maine @Col-Niese @Col-Pelfrey @StL-Perez @StL-Santana @StL-Maine2
Phi Was-Hamels --- Was-Kendrick Was-Happ Fla-Moyer Fla-Halladay Fla-Hamels2
Pit @SF-Ohlndorf @SF-Maholm @SF-Morton --- Cin-Duke Cin-Olndorf2 Cin-Maholm2
StL Ho-Wanright --- Ho-Penny Ho-Lohse NYM-Garcia NYM-Carpenter NYM-Wanrght2
SD Atl-Correia --- Atl-Richard Atl-Latos Ari-Garland Ari-Correia2 Ari-Young-5*
SF Pit-Zito Pit-Cain Pit-Sanchez --- @LAD-Wlemeyr @LAD-Lincecum @LAD-Zito2
Was @Phi-Marquis --- @Phi-Stammen @Phi-Mock Mil-Lannan Mil-Hrnandez Mil-Marquis2
*-RHP Kris Benson, scheduled to start Monday at Triple-A Reno, is the pitcher most likely to become the Diamondbacks’ fifth starter when one is needed Saturday. Other possibilities are RHPs Billy Buckner, who started Sunday at Reno, and Kevin Mulvey, the Aces’ scheduled starter Tuesday.
**-The Cubs are likely to keep RHP Carlos Zambrano on an every-five-days schedule, pushing other starters back a day if there’s a day off in the schedule (which there is Tuesday).
3*-RHP Bronson Arroyo is expected to be able to make his next scheduled start Tuesday despite taking a line drive off his left calf from Cardinals OF Colby Rasmus.
4*-The Brewers are expected to give their fifth starter, RHP Jeff Suppan, his first start Thursday instead of having RHP Yovani Gallardo pitch on his usual four days’ rest.
5*-The Pirates are likely to skip their fifth starter, RHP Daniel McCutchen, and have RHP Ross Ohlendorf pitch on four days’ rest.
6*-Padres RHP Chris Young will miss his scheduled start during the series against the Braves because of a tight shoulder, but could be all right to start Sunday. If Young couldn’t go, LHP Wade LeBlanc could be recalled from Triple-A Portland. He’s scheduled to pitch Tuesday for the Beavers, so LeBlanc would be on his usual rest.
Schedule notes
Of the 30 teams, just six – Orioles, White Sox, Athletics and Blue Jays in the American League, and Reds and Marlins in the National League – are scheduled to play seven games this week. The others would play six times. Toronto is the only team that would play all seven at home. That’s a neutral park. Overall, the schedule slightly favors pitchers – with six games scheduled in pitchers’ parks at Seattle, Los Angeles, St. Louis and San Diego. The only teams that would play six home games in a hitters’ park are at Yankee Stadium and Wrigley Field.
Pitchers scheduled to start twice at home are RHPs Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Ryan Dempster, Adam Wainwright and Kevin Correia, and LHPs Andy Pettitte, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brian Tallet, Ricky Romero, Clayton Kershaw and Cole Hamels. Our highest recommendations are Wainwright, Romero and Kershaw, with Carmona as a live longshot.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer. In fact, there’s an update there today.
Today’s biggest news about closers is that the Rangers are replacing their closer, RHP Frank Francisco, with RHP Neftali Feliz after two spectacularly blown saves.
NOTE: We have extended the free period for these Emails through Sunday, April 18. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
Before then, we’ll tell you how you can subscribe to receive these Emails five or more times per week, along with timely Articles and other information that will be added to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Subscriptions will include Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay, and he was only one of our picks that were on the money. Choosing him was inspired; he was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Let us know of your interest and what you’d like to see by Emailing lary@fantasybaseballscout.com.
Thanks for your continuing interest in and support of Fantasy Baseball Scout. Thanks also to those who have made suggestions as to content they’d like to see. A reminder: Subscribers will be able to ask questions specific to their fantasy teams and leagues, and receive answers through these Emails, the web site or personal Emails.
Projected starting pitchers, April 12-18, 2010
AL Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Bal TB-Guthrie TB-Matusz TB-Bergesen @Oak-Hrnandez @Oak-Millwood @Oak-Guthrie2 @Oak-Matusz2
Bos @Min-Lester --- @Min-Lackey @Min-Wakfield TB-Beckett TB-Bchholz* TB-Lester2
CWS @Tor-Peavy @Tor-Floyd @Tor-Danks @Tor-Garcia @Cle-Buehrle @Cle-Peavy2 @Cle-Floyd2
Cle Tex-Carmona --- Tex-Mastersn Tex-Huff CWS-Talbot CWS-Wstbrook CWS-Crmona2
Det KC-Scherzer KC-Willis KC-Porcello --- @Se-Bondrmn @Se-Verlander @Se-Scherzer2
KC @Det-Hochevar @Det-Bannister @Det-Davies --- @Min-Greinke @Min-Meche @Min-Hochevr2
LAA --- @NYY-Santana @NYY-Pineiro @NYY-Kazmir** @Tor-Weaver @Tor-Saunders @Tor-Santana2
Min Bos-Pavano --- Bos-Slowey Bos-Liriano KC-Baker KC-Blckburn KC-Pavano2
NYY --- LAA-Pettitte LAA-Vazquez LAA-Hughs-3* Tex-Sabathia Tex-Burnett Tex-Pettitte2
Oak @Se-Duchschr @Se-Anderson @Se-Gonzalez Bal-Sheets Bal-Braden Bal-Dchschr2 Bal-Andersn2
Se Oak-Rwd-Smh Oak-Fister Oak-Vargas --- Det-Hrnandez Det-Snell Det-Rd-Smh2
TB @Bal-Garza @Bal-Niemann @Bal-Price --- @Bos-Davis @Bos-Shields @Bos-Garza2
Tex @Cle-Harden --- @Cle-Wilson @Cle-Lewis @NYY-Harrison @NYY-Feldman @NYY-Harden2
Tor CWS-Tallet CWS-Romero CWS-Morrow CWS-Eveland LAA-Marcum LAA-Tallet2 LAA-Romero2
*-The Red Sox could move LHP Jon Lester ahead of RHP Clay Buchholz, their fifth starter.
**-LHP Scott Kazmir is expected to be ready to start Thursday or even Wednesday for the Angels. In an injury-rehab start Friday at high Class A Rancho Cucamonga against Inland Empire (Dodgers organization), Kazmir pitched 6 1/3 innings with a fastball that reached 93 mph
3*-The Yankees would have their fifth starter, RHP Phil Hughes, pitch against the Angels Thursday so New York could have two left-handers start against a Rangers lineup heavy with left-handed batters Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis and Julio Borbon.
AL Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Ari --- @LAD-Kennedy @LAD-Lopez @LAD-Haren @SD-Jackson @SD-Benson* @SD-Knnedy2
Atl @SD-Jurrjens --- @SD-Hanson @SD-Hudson Col-Lowe Col-Kawakmi Col-Jurrjens2
ChC Mil-Dempster --- Mil-Wells Mil-Zmbno** Ho-Silva Ho-Gorzlany Ho-Dempstr2
Cin @Fla-Cueto @Fla-Arryo-3* @Fla-Bailey @Fla-Harang @Pit-Leake @Pit-Cueto2 @Pit-Arroyo2
Col --- NYM-Smith NYM-Cook NYM-DeLaRsa @Atl-Hammel @Atl-Jimenez @Atl-Smith2
Fla Cin-Nolasco Cin-Robertsn Cin-Volstad Cin-Johnson @Phi-Sanchez @Phi-Nolasco2 @Phi-Robrtsn2
Ho @StL-Rdriguez --- @StL-Myers @StL-Norris @ChC-Paulino @ChC-Oswalt @ChC-Rdrguez2
LAD --- Ari-Kershaw Ari-Blingsley Ari-Kuroda SF-Padilla SF-Haeger SF-Kershaw2
Mil @ChC-Davis --- @ChC-Bush @ChC-Suppn-4* @Was-Gallardo @Was-Wolf @Was-Davis2
NYM --- @Col-Maine @Col-Niese @Col-Pelfrey @StL-Perez @StL-Santana @StL-Maine2
Phi Was-Hamels --- Was-Kendrick Was-Happ Fla-Moyer Fla-Halladay Fla-Hamels2
Pit @SF-Ohlndorf @SF-Maholm @SF-Morton --- Cin-Duke Cin-Olndorf2 Cin-Maholm2
StL Ho-Wanright --- Ho-Penny Ho-Lohse NYM-Garcia NYM-Carpenter NYM-Wanrght2
SD Atl-Correia --- Atl-Richard Atl-Latos Ari-Garland Ari-Correia2 Ari-Young-5*
SF Pit-Zito Pit-Cain Pit-Sanchez --- @LAD-Wlemeyr @LAD-Lincecum @LAD-Zito2
Was @Phi-Marquis --- @Phi-Stammen @Phi-Mock Mil-Lannan Mil-Hrnandez Mil-Marquis2
*-RHP Kris Benson, scheduled to start Monday at Triple-A Reno, is the pitcher most likely to become the Diamondbacks’ fifth starter when one is needed Saturday. Other possibilities are RHPs Billy Buckner, who started Sunday at Reno, and Kevin Mulvey, the Aces’ scheduled starter Tuesday.
**-The Cubs are likely to keep RHP Carlos Zambrano on an every-five-days schedule, pushing other starters back a day if there’s a day off in the schedule (which there is Tuesday).
3*-RHP Bronson Arroyo is expected to be able to make his next scheduled start Tuesday despite taking a line drive off his left calf from Cardinals OF Colby Rasmus.
4*-The Brewers are expected to give their fifth starter, RHP Jeff Suppan, his first start Thursday instead of having RHP Yovani Gallardo pitch on his usual four days’ rest.
5*-The Pirates are likely to skip their fifth starter, RHP Daniel McCutchen, and have RHP Ross Ohlendorf pitch on four days’ rest.
6*-Padres RHP Chris Young will miss his scheduled start during the series against the Braves because of a tight shoulder, but could be all right to start Sunday. If Young couldn’t go, LHP Wade LeBlanc could be recalled from Triple-A Portland. He’s scheduled to pitch Tuesday for the Beavers, so LeBlanc would be on his usual rest.
Schedule notes
Of the 30 teams, just six – Orioles, White Sox, Athletics and Blue Jays in the American League, and Reds and Marlins in the National League – are scheduled to play seven games this week. The others would play six times. Toronto is the only team that would play all seven at home. That’s a neutral park. Overall, the schedule slightly favors pitchers – with six games scheduled in pitchers’ parks at Seattle, Los Angeles, St. Louis and San Diego. The only teams that would play six home games in a hitters’ park are at Yankee Stadium and Wrigley Field.
Pitchers scheduled to start twice at home are RHPs Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Ryan Dempster, Adam Wainwright and Kevin Correia, and LHPs Andy Pettitte, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brian Tallet, Ricky Romero, Clayton Kershaw and Cole Hamels. Our highest recommendations are Wainwright, Romero and Kershaw, with Carmona as a live longshot.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer. In fact, there’s an update there today.
Today’s biggest news about closers is that the Rangers are replacing their closer, RHP Frank Francisco, with RHP Neftali Feliz after two spectacularly blown saves.
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