Every year on the Memorial Day weekend, I study which pitchers are likely to improve their results based on two metrics that show how well they have been pitching. At the same time, I come up with a list of pitchers whose performance is likely to fall off during the final two-thirds of the season.
Some of the pithcers on the way up are pretty obvious. Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber weren't winning early. But they are Cy Young Award winners. And the metrics I use -- opponents' batting average, or Hittability, and strikeout:walk ratio, or Strikeability -- showed that both were pitching well during April and May.
In the study, I included the 109 pitchers who at that point were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title (1 inning per team game). I compared their Hittability and Strikeability ratings with their standing in strikeouts and wins. Pitchers ranking high in combined Hittability and Strikeability but low in the counting stats are likely to be rewarded with better results going forward.
Others on the good list are Jimmy Nelson, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, Chase Anderson and Michael Wacha.
If any of those pitchers are a product of a small sample size or luck, rather than talent, I'd suggest Nelson, Anderson and possibly Sanchez. The others all have a track record.
There are just two pitchers I would expect to fall this season. Usually, there are seven or eight pitchers, sometimes even more on the bad list. This year's players due for a fall are Mark Buehrle and Mike Fiers. Buehrle was easy to see coming. In recent years, he has started fast and finished poorly. I remember telling someone it was OK to draft him, but he should be traded by midseason or the first sign that he was faltering.
In my rankings, I divide players into four groups as equal as possible, based on where they stand in each category. Buehrle began the year as one of the majors' biggest winners, even though he ranked in the bottom quarter in both Hittability and Strikeability. That made him not only an obvious candidate to fade, but also one of nine pitchers who should be replaced in the rotation as soon as someone better could be found.
There are seven pitchers in the top one-fourth in both Hittability and Strikeability. They are also good bets for success between now and October: Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer (another Cy Young Award winner), Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi, Felix Hernandez (Cy!) and Zack Greinke. The biggest surprises on that list are Hammel and Odorizzi, who is one of the reasons why the Rays still are contending in the American League East.
They are players you should seek to acquire in your fantasy leagues, if you don't already have them.
Pitchers to avoid or to dump, in addition to Buehrle, are Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Tim Hudson, Kyle Kendrick, Jordan Lyles, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman and Kyle Lobstein.
Hellickson has been at the top of the Hittability and Strikeability lists in years past. I'd suggest that he and Tillman might have previously undisclosed injuries. Hudson, Guthrie and Buehrle may simply be at the end of the line.
I'll have more posts on my Hittability/Strikeability ratings, and how they can be used to predict future performance.
Showing posts with label Jeremy Hellickson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeremy Hellickson. Show all posts
Saturday, June 6, 2015
Thursday, February 6, 2014
How Homer Bailey (Mike Minor?) could be like Jarrod Washburn
In 2003, when Lenny Pappano hired me for the opening of the dear departed fantasybaseballscout.com web site, one of the features we advertised was "How to Find a Cheap Starting Pitcher Who Can Pile Up the Wins."
I had done similar research a year earlier that pointed to Jarrod Washburn. He improved from 11-10 in 2001 to 18-6 as a 27-year-old in '02.
Thus was born, after I joined fantasybaseballscout.com, the Jarrod Washburn Award. The pre-season projected winner for 2003 was Jason Schmidt, who lived up to the spirit of the award by improving from 13-8 to 17-5.
There were other successes during the lifetime of fantasybaseballscout.com.
I'm reviving the Jarrod Washburn Award for this blog, and I'll post revivals of other remnants from fantasybaseballscout.com before this season begins.
Before I get into the methodology, here's the bottom line. The Jarrod Washburn Award for 2014 is ... drum roll ... Homer Bailey.
Honorable mention to Mike Minor and Alex Cobb. I'll say it here now. Even though the research gives the edge to Bailey, I wouldn't be surprised if Minor has a better year. And I'll be willing to bet you can pick up Minor for less money. (According to Sporting News Fantasy Source, you can. It lists Bailey at $21 and Minor at $19. Also, this is not an endorsement of the publication. It just happens to be the first one I picked up. There might or might not be others, for comparison purposes. And if the setbacks I've encountered go away, I'll have my own dollar values by the end of this month.)
Neither of them, nor Cobb at $15, is cheap or inexpensive.
Bailey's price is inflated by memories of his two no-hitters. To date he has been too inconsistent, too feast-or-famine, to be considered a top-tier pitcher.
To find one of my candidates for the award at a more reasonable price, you might look to Jarrod Parker at $10 (which sounds like such a bargain that you probably wouldn't get him at that price). He also has the magical first name of Jarrod.
To begin the process, I listed all of the pitchers who won between 11 and 13 games in the majors last season. Consider them players who have had a measure of success in the majors, but not necessarily "pile up the wins."
This list started with 33 pitchers. But among those were true stars who didn't win a whole lot in '13: Yu Darvish, Ubaldo Jimenez, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez. By eliminating any pitcher who had won more than 13 in any major league season, the list shrunk to 13.
The other factors I use:
-- Injury history
-- Height
-- Age
-- Last year's opponent batting average
-- Last year's strikeout/walk ratio
-- Team prospects
The injury history is important for two reasons. 1) A pitcher who has worked to return from an injury can have the mental makeup needed for success. 2) A pitcher who hasn't been hurt yet is going to have arm trouble at some point.
Height is important because scouts prefer bigger, seemingly more durable pitchers. One of the many things I learned from John Benson is that the bias toward tall pitchers, especially tall lefties, is justified. Sorry about that, Sonny Gray.
Age is important. Various research has shown that ballplayers, both hitters and pitchers, tend to peak at about 27 years old. Even a bit younger for pitchers, because the woods are full of pitchers who never had an age 27 season before they were injured. Today, I probably would have overlooked 30-year-old Jason Schmidt, though perhaps he was just vastly superior in the other indicators. I don't remember.
Team prospects are important because it's a lot harder to win with a losing team. This qualifier was subjective. I considered "good" teams to be those that have been in the playoffs during the last couple of seasons or seem likely to be this year (I'm talking to you, Angels).
Opponent batting average and strikeout/walk ratio are the two underlying statistics that I think show how well a pitcher is actually throwing, much more than wins or ERA or saves or strikeouts alone.
Here's a breakdown of the 13 pitchers in the study, in order of the number of positive categories. In case of ties, I've looked at specific categories to see if one pitcher has at least a subjective advantage over another.
1. Reds RHP Homer Bailey, the only one with a positive in all 7 indicators
2. Braves LHP Mike Minor, 6 positives
3. Rays RHP Alex Cobb, 6
4. Indians RHP Corey Kluber, 5
5. Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker, 5
6. Marlins RHP Jose Fernandez, 4
7. Athletics LHP Tommy Milone, 4
8. Mets RHP Dillon Gee, 4
9. Orioles LHP Miguel Gonzalez, 4
10. Red Sox LHP Felix Doubront, 4
11. Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson, 4-minus because he'll miss at least half of the season
12. Brewers RHP Wily Peralta, Statistical Anomaly No. 1, 3
13. Padres LHP Eric Stults, Statistical Anomaly No. 2, 3
I did some additional research on the 34-year-old Stults to see if there's something in him that suddenly made him a winner. I'm still not convinced that even his limited success last season was a fluke. He probably won't win even 11 games again.
By the way, with the number of wins declining for league leaders, I'm considering a change next year to consider pitchers with between 10 and 12 wins for the previous season, and no season with more than 12. Minor was the only pitcher with 13 who survived the cut for this year. Bailey and Cobb each won 11 in 2013, and Parker 12.
* * *
While visiting baseball-reference.com for some historical information for this post, I saw an "in memoriam" section that included Ralph Kiner, who died Thursday, and two other players I followed for a time. Two other players whose career didn't get them a wire-service obituary. I saw the late Jophery Brown (died Jan. 11) pitch in his only major league game in 1968, and later saw him as a stunt man in many Hollywood feature movies. Never met him, but I did meet the late Tim Hosley (died Jan. 21). I remember playing in a poker game with him and some of his Toledo Mud Hens teammates at their hotel in Rochester in 1972.
I followed to a very good biography of Brown from SABR, and to an obituary notice from a California funeral home. And here's a good posthumous biography of Hosley. Not sure what he did after his playing days, but his Wikipedia entry indicates that he played in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association.
What I take from all of this is related to this line from the obituary notice: "Enjoy the little things in life...for one day you'll look back and realize they were the big things." Or even things at all. And that the lives of the players we follow, big-time and small-time, aren't all that much different from any or ours. We live, we love, we find a way to survive financially, and eventually we don't live any more. Enjoy it while we can.
I had done similar research a year earlier that pointed to Jarrod Washburn. He improved from 11-10 in 2001 to 18-6 as a 27-year-old in '02.
Thus was born, after I joined fantasybaseballscout.com, the Jarrod Washburn Award. The pre-season projected winner for 2003 was Jason Schmidt, who lived up to the spirit of the award by improving from 13-8 to 17-5.
There were other successes during the lifetime of fantasybaseballscout.com.
I'm reviving the Jarrod Washburn Award for this blog, and I'll post revivals of other remnants from fantasybaseballscout.com before this season begins.
Before I get into the methodology, here's the bottom line. The Jarrod Washburn Award for 2014 is ... drum roll ... Homer Bailey.
Honorable mention to Mike Minor and Alex Cobb. I'll say it here now. Even though the research gives the edge to Bailey, I wouldn't be surprised if Minor has a better year. And I'll be willing to bet you can pick up Minor for less money. (According to Sporting News Fantasy Source, you can. It lists Bailey at $21 and Minor at $19. Also, this is not an endorsement of the publication. It just happens to be the first one I picked up. There might or might not be others, for comparison purposes. And if the setbacks I've encountered go away, I'll have my own dollar values by the end of this month.)
Neither of them, nor Cobb at $15, is cheap or inexpensive.
Bailey's price is inflated by memories of his two no-hitters. To date he has been too inconsistent, too feast-or-famine, to be considered a top-tier pitcher.
To find one of my candidates for the award at a more reasonable price, you might look to Jarrod Parker at $10 (which sounds like such a bargain that you probably wouldn't get him at that price). He also has the magical first name of Jarrod.
To begin the process, I listed all of the pitchers who won between 11 and 13 games in the majors last season. Consider them players who have had a measure of success in the majors, but not necessarily "pile up the wins."
This list started with 33 pitchers. But among those were true stars who didn't win a whole lot in '13: Yu Darvish, Ubaldo Jimenez, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez. By eliminating any pitcher who had won more than 13 in any major league season, the list shrunk to 13.
The other factors I use:
-- Injury history
-- Height
-- Age
-- Last year's opponent batting average
-- Last year's strikeout/walk ratio
-- Team prospects
The injury history is important for two reasons. 1) A pitcher who has worked to return from an injury can have the mental makeup needed for success. 2) A pitcher who hasn't been hurt yet is going to have arm trouble at some point.
Height is important because scouts prefer bigger, seemingly more durable pitchers. One of the many things I learned from John Benson is that the bias toward tall pitchers, especially tall lefties, is justified. Sorry about that, Sonny Gray.
Age is important. Various research has shown that ballplayers, both hitters and pitchers, tend to peak at about 27 years old. Even a bit younger for pitchers, because the woods are full of pitchers who never had an age 27 season before they were injured. Today, I probably would have overlooked 30-year-old Jason Schmidt, though perhaps he was just vastly superior in the other indicators. I don't remember.
Team prospects are important because it's a lot harder to win with a losing team. This qualifier was subjective. I considered "good" teams to be those that have been in the playoffs during the last couple of seasons or seem likely to be this year (I'm talking to you, Angels).
Opponent batting average and strikeout/walk ratio are the two underlying statistics that I think show how well a pitcher is actually throwing, much more than wins or ERA or saves or strikeouts alone.
Here's a breakdown of the 13 pitchers in the study, in order of the number of positive categories. In case of ties, I've looked at specific categories to see if one pitcher has at least a subjective advantage over another.
1. Reds RHP Homer Bailey, the only one with a positive in all 7 indicators
2. Braves LHP Mike Minor, 6 positives
3. Rays RHP Alex Cobb, 6
4. Indians RHP Corey Kluber, 5
5. Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker, 5
6. Marlins RHP Jose Fernandez, 4
7. Athletics LHP Tommy Milone, 4
8. Mets RHP Dillon Gee, 4
9. Orioles LHP Miguel Gonzalez, 4
10. Red Sox LHP Felix Doubront, 4
11. Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson, 4-minus because he'll miss at least half of the season
12. Brewers RHP Wily Peralta, Statistical Anomaly No. 1, 3
13. Padres LHP Eric Stults, Statistical Anomaly No. 2, 3
I did some additional research on the 34-year-old Stults to see if there's something in him that suddenly made him a winner. I'm still not convinced that even his limited success last season was a fluke. He probably won't win even 11 games again.
By the way, with the number of wins declining for league leaders, I'm considering a change next year to consider pitchers with between 10 and 12 wins for the previous season, and no season with more than 12. Minor was the only pitcher with 13 who survived the cut for this year. Bailey and Cobb each won 11 in 2013, and Parker 12.
* * *
While visiting baseball-reference.com for some historical information for this post, I saw an "in memoriam" section that included Ralph Kiner, who died Thursday, and two other players I followed for a time. Two other players whose career didn't get them a wire-service obituary. I saw the late Jophery Brown (died Jan. 11) pitch in his only major league game in 1968, and later saw him as a stunt man in many Hollywood feature movies. Never met him, but I did meet the late Tim Hosley (died Jan. 21). I remember playing in a poker game with him and some of his Toledo Mud Hens teammates at their hotel in Rochester in 1972.
I followed to a very good biography of Brown from SABR, and to an obituary notice from a California funeral home. And here's a good posthumous biography of Hosley. Not sure what he did after his playing days, but his Wikipedia entry indicates that he played in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association.
What I take from all of this is related to this line from the obituary notice: "Enjoy the little things in life...for one day you'll look back and realize they were the big things." Or even things at all. And that the lives of the players we follow, big-time and small-time, aren't all that much different from any or ours. We live, we love, we find a way to survive financially, and eventually we don't live any more. Enjoy it while we can.
Monday, February 3, 2014
Rays' Hellickson to miss 6-8 weeks this season
One starting pitcher has had the start of his season moved back. Another appears to have a chance to return to a somewhat improved major league rotation in 2014.
Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson underwent elbow surgery -- not Tommy John surgery, but an arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies. Hellickson is expected to miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season, meaning he wouldn't return until well into May.
RHP Jerome Williams was no more than an innings-eater for the Angels last season, but even that level of effectiveness would be an improvement in the Astros rotation. He said he has agreed to a 1-year major league contract, pending a physical exam Wednesday. Houston has not confirmed the assignment. There is no guarantee that Williams would become a starter with the new team; he could have a long-relief role. But there isn't much experienced talent vying for rotation spots.
The Mets signed RHP Kyle Farnsworth, who is beginning to approach the career life span of a left-handed reliever, to a minor league contract. And, no, the Mets themselves are not included among the teams in the minors.
The Rangers have signed RHP Armando Galarraga, who began his major league career with Texas, to a minor league contract. But even with a spring-training invitation to 2B prospect Rougned Odor, bringing the list of invitees to 18, Galarraga won't be among them. Texas also is trying an experiment that has worked with some strong-armed minor leaguers, most notably RHP Alexi Ogando. The Rangers signed former Red Sox OF Che-Hsuan Lin to a minor league contact, with the intetnion of converting him to a pitcher.
* * *
Basketball. I won Week 14 6-2, extending my lead slightly to 9 1/2 games with five weeks to play. I couldn't catch up in rebounds and remained behind in field goal percentage, primarily because Orlando's Victor Oladipo was just 3 for 16 (19%). I did not add a rebounder because the Magic and Celtics were the only teams playing Sunday. My opponent happened to have two front-court players in action, which enabled him to add slightly to his lead in rebounds.
Nine players on my team are active tonight, compared to seven for this week's opponent.
* * *
Hockey. I remained at 66 points, but moved within eight points of second place. The team ahead of me lost a point.
I have made some adjustments in my lineup for each day this week to try to remain on pace to avoid running out of games played before I reach the league limits. Wasn't easy. With just four skating bench spots, and teams squeezing in a lot of games before the Olympics break begins Sunday, I've had to have a couple of games extra for both forwards and defensemen.
There will be some help late in the week because D Zdeno Chara will miss the Bruins' games Thurday and Saturday so he can carry the Slovakian flag at the Olympic opening ceremonies. Keep that in mind if you have him on your roster, and check other Olympians who could miss a game or two.
* * *
Football. My pick of Denver in the "bet a thousand" pool proved to be disastrous. Along with the 13 other people who took the Broncos minus-2, I ended up with $0. Each of us bet everything s/he had. Most of the 20 who went with Seattle also bet everything, but the Seahawks won. No matter how much hypothetical money I wagered, I couldn't have finished in the money with The Broncos failing to cover the spread.
With Seattle as my big game 48 pick in the Pittsburgh pick-'em pool, I placed first. Not sure how much I won, or how much will go to pay for donuts at the company where the pool was hosted.
Bring on the baseball season.
I intend to do just that, with increased attention to fantasy stats and other features leading up to draft day/opening day.
By the way, do the games being played early in Australia make it so you hold your draft earlier. Just wondering. If you're reading this, please let me know about your draft plans. The Inner League Baseball drafts will be a week earlier than usual, on March 16, Sandy Duncan's birthday.
Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson underwent elbow surgery -- not Tommy John surgery, but an arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies. Hellickson is expected to miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season, meaning he wouldn't return until well into May.
RHP Jerome Williams was no more than an innings-eater for the Angels last season, but even that level of effectiveness would be an improvement in the Astros rotation. He said he has agreed to a 1-year major league contract, pending a physical exam Wednesday. Houston has not confirmed the assignment. There is no guarantee that Williams would become a starter with the new team; he could have a long-relief role. But there isn't much experienced talent vying for rotation spots.
The Mets signed RHP Kyle Farnsworth, who is beginning to approach the career life span of a left-handed reliever, to a minor league contract. And, no, the Mets themselves are not included among the teams in the minors.
The Rangers have signed RHP Armando Galarraga, who began his major league career with Texas, to a minor league contract. But even with a spring-training invitation to 2B prospect Rougned Odor, bringing the list of invitees to 18, Galarraga won't be among them. Texas also is trying an experiment that has worked with some strong-armed minor leaguers, most notably RHP Alexi Ogando. The Rangers signed former Red Sox OF Che-Hsuan Lin to a minor league contact, with the intetnion of converting him to a pitcher.
* * *
Basketball. I won Week 14 6-2, extending my lead slightly to 9 1/2 games with five weeks to play. I couldn't catch up in rebounds and remained behind in field goal percentage, primarily because Orlando's Victor Oladipo was just 3 for 16 (19%). I did not add a rebounder because the Magic and Celtics were the only teams playing Sunday. My opponent happened to have two front-court players in action, which enabled him to add slightly to his lead in rebounds.
Nine players on my team are active tonight, compared to seven for this week's opponent.
* * *
Hockey. I remained at 66 points, but moved within eight points of second place. The team ahead of me lost a point.
I have made some adjustments in my lineup for each day this week to try to remain on pace to avoid running out of games played before I reach the league limits. Wasn't easy. With just four skating bench spots, and teams squeezing in a lot of games before the Olympics break begins Sunday, I've had to have a couple of games extra for both forwards and defensemen.
There will be some help late in the week because D Zdeno Chara will miss the Bruins' games Thurday and Saturday so he can carry the Slovakian flag at the Olympic opening ceremonies. Keep that in mind if you have him on your roster, and check other Olympians who could miss a game or two.
* * *
Football. My pick of Denver in the "bet a thousand" pool proved to be disastrous. Along with the 13 other people who took the Broncos minus-2, I ended up with $0. Each of us bet everything s/he had. Most of the 20 who went with Seattle also bet everything, but the Seahawks won. No matter how much hypothetical money I wagered, I couldn't have finished in the money with The Broncos failing to cover the spread.
With Seattle as my big game 48 pick in the Pittsburgh pick-'em pool, I placed first. Not sure how much I won, or how much will go to pay for donuts at the company where the pool was hosted.
Bring on the baseball season.
I intend to do just that, with increased attention to fantasy stats and other features leading up to draft day/opening day.
By the way, do the games being played early in Australia make it so you hold your draft earlier. Just wondering. If you're reading this, please let me know about your draft plans. The Inner League Baseball drafts will be a week earlier than usual, on March 16, Sandy Duncan's birthday.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Look for hot pitchers Holland, Hellickson in majors
We’re getting back toward our normal schedule, when the Tuesday Emails will contain Minor League updates, letting you know which players you could look for to move up from the minors or up through an organization.
The free period for these Emails will end Sunday, April 25. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
NEW!
The good news is that you now CAN subscribe. Here’s how:
Email us at lary@fantasybaseballscout.com. Include your name, address and phone number so we could contact you with any questions, and (most important) tell us the Email address where you would like to receive the Emails. You then would receive an invoice from PayPal, which you could pay by following simple instructions within that Email. Once we receive your payment, we’ll add you to the subscription list so you would receive all of this year’s Emails and have access to any other features from fantasybaseballscout.com.
Subscriptions will include Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay, and he was only one of our picks that were on the money. Choosing him was inspired; he was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Subscribers will be able to ask questions specific to their fantasy teams and leagues, and receive answers through these Emails, the web site or personal Emails.
Leading the way
The first group of minor league Players of the Week and Pitchers of the Week include the usual overaged suspects and inconsistent or previously underachieving prospects.
Seven of the 10 minor leagues that have started their season used the entire season since Opening Day, April 8, as the basis for these first awards. The Triple-A International League and Double-A Southern and Texas leagues based their awards on the calendar week April 12-18.
The shining stars on the list are two of baseball’s best young pitchers, who won the weekly awards from the two Triple-A leagues: LHP Derek Holland (Oklahoma City, Rangers organization, Pacific Coast League) and our Best Arm from the Farm, RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Durham, Rays, IL).
Holland spent most of last season with Texas. Even though he could be a better pitcher than anyone currently in the Rangers’ rotation, he began this season with the 89ers again and has gone 2-0 with an 0.46 ERA and 15:3 strikeout/walk ratio in 19 2/3 innings during three starts. Hellickson improved to 3-0 in a week when he was 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 15:2 K/W ratio in 14 innings.
The biggest surprise among the award winners was that three catchers had big weeks at bat. They were 25-year-old Robinson Chirinos (Tennessee, Cubs, Southern League), who batted .444 (8-for-18) with three homers, eight RBI and four runs; Ryan Lavarnway (Salem, Red Sox, high Class A Carolina League), .462 (18-39), three homers, 15 RBI, 13 runs, and Travis d’Arnaud (Dunedin, Blue Jays, high Class A Florida State League), .425 (17-40), three homers, 10 RBI, seven runs and a stolen base. D’Arnaud was one of the prospects Toronto received from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade.
Other than 24-year-old Nick Evans, who already has played in the major leagues, the Triple-A and Double-A award winners are at least 25 and thus marginal prospects at best. The PCL Player of the Week, 1B John Lindsey of Albuquerque (Dodgers) is 33! He batted .538 (21-39) with two homers, 13 RBI and 13 runs in a hitters’ home park. OF John Mayberry, 26, of Lehigh Valley (Phillies) had an 11-for-21 (.538) week with a homer, five RBI and eight runs.
In Double-A, 25-year-old 1B Andrew Brown began the Texas League season 3-for-18, but last week batted .423 (11-26) with three homers, 11 RBI and five runs for Springfield (Cardinals). In the two games where I saw him play, he was 1-for-8 (a home run) and didn’t impress me as a prospect. Evans began the season 16-for-43 (.372) with three homers, 10 RBI and 11 runs.
The other Players of the Week were LF Dan Robertson of Lake Elsinore (Padres, high Class A California League), .400 (16-40), one homer, eight RBI, eight runs and a stolen base); RF Jerry Sands of Great Lakes (Dodgers, low A Midwest League), .439 (18-41), two homers, 12 RBI, 11 runs, two steals, and 3B Tyler Kolodny of Delmarva (Orioles, low Class A South Atlantic League), .386 (17-44), six homers, 11 RBI, 11 runs and two stolen bases.
The Double-A Pitchers of the Week also were older than the prime age for a prospect – 25-year-old LHP Luis Perez of New Hampshire (Blue Jays, Eastern League), 2-0, 0.53, 11:6 K/w ratio in 17 innings; 27-year-old Tom Cochran, a former independent-league pitcher now with Carolina (Reds, Southern League), 2-0, 0.75, 15:3 K/W ratio in 12 innings, and 26-year-old RHP Federico Castaneda of Northwest Arkansas (Royals, Texas League), 0-0 with an 0.00 ERA and 11:1 K/W ratio in 9 2/3 relief innings. Castaneda, who has spent five years in the Mexican League, could find a spot in Kansas City’s bullpen this season.
Another Royals farmhand, 2008 first-round draft pick Michael Montgomery, was the Carolina League Pitcher of the Week at Wilmington. The lefty was 1-0 with an 0.75 ERA and 19:1 K/W ratio in 12 innings, including a 17-strikeout game against Kinston (Indians). He’ll also get to the major leagues, though not likely this year.
Other Class A Pitchers of the Week were RHP Juan Nicasio of Modesto (Rockies, California League), 1-0, 2.65 ERA, 13:2 K/W ratio in 17 innings; RHP Hector Noesi of Tampa (Yankees, FSL), 2-0, 1.50, 16:1 K/W ratio in 12 innings; Australian RHP Lian Hendriks of Beloit (Twins, Midwest League), 0-0, 0.00, 20:1 K/W ratio in 17 innings, and LHP Nick Hernandez of Lakewood (Phillies, Sally League), 2-0, 1.29, 20:1 K/W ratio in 21 innings.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer.
Padres RHP Heath Bell earned his fourth save in the day’s best-pitched game, a 1-0 victory over the Giants in which the winning pitcher, RHP Mat Latos, had a pitching line of 740012.
The only save with any kind of trouble was by Astros Lindstrom, whose third save came in a game he entered with a 7-4 lead against the Marlins and left with a line of 121100.
The other saves were by Reds RHP Francisco Cordero, fifth, 11-9 vs. the Dodgers; Angels RHP Fernando Rodney, fifth, 6-5 over the Tigers; Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gregg, fourth, 4-3 against the Royals; White Sox RHP Bobby Jenks, third, 4-1 vs. the Rays, and Diamondbacks RHP Chad Qualls, second, 9-7 over the Cardinals.
The free period for these Emails will end Sunday, April 25. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
NEW!
The good news is that you now CAN subscribe. Here’s how:
Email us at lary@fantasybaseballscout.com. Include your name, address and phone number so we could contact you with any questions, and (most important) tell us the Email address where you would like to receive the Emails. You then would receive an invoice from PayPal, which you could pay by following simple instructions within that Email. Once we receive your payment, we’ll add you to the subscription list so you would receive all of this year’s Emails and have access to any other features from fantasybaseballscout.com.
Subscriptions will include Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay, and he was only one of our picks that were on the money. Choosing him was inspired; he was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Subscribers will be able to ask questions specific to their fantasy teams and leagues, and receive answers through these Emails, the web site or personal Emails.
Leading the way
The first group of minor league Players of the Week and Pitchers of the Week include the usual overaged suspects and inconsistent or previously underachieving prospects.
Seven of the 10 minor leagues that have started their season used the entire season since Opening Day, April 8, as the basis for these first awards. The Triple-A International League and Double-A Southern and Texas leagues based their awards on the calendar week April 12-18.
The shining stars on the list are two of baseball’s best young pitchers, who won the weekly awards from the two Triple-A leagues: LHP Derek Holland (Oklahoma City, Rangers organization, Pacific Coast League) and our Best Arm from the Farm, RHP Jeremy Hellickson (Durham, Rays, IL).
Holland spent most of last season with Texas. Even though he could be a better pitcher than anyone currently in the Rangers’ rotation, he began this season with the 89ers again and has gone 2-0 with an 0.46 ERA and 15:3 strikeout/walk ratio in 19 2/3 innings during three starts. Hellickson improved to 3-0 in a week when he was 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 15:2 K/W ratio in 14 innings.
The biggest surprise among the award winners was that three catchers had big weeks at bat. They were 25-year-old Robinson Chirinos (Tennessee, Cubs, Southern League), who batted .444 (8-for-18) with three homers, eight RBI and four runs; Ryan Lavarnway (Salem, Red Sox, high Class A Carolina League), .462 (18-39), three homers, 15 RBI, 13 runs, and Travis d’Arnaud (Dunedin, Blue Jays, high Class A Florida State League), .425 (17-40), three homers, 10 RBI, seven runs and a stolen base. D’Arnaud was one of the prospects Toronto received from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade.
Other than 24-year-old Nick Evans, who already has played in the major leagues, the Triple-A and Double-A award winners are at least 25 and thus marginal prospects at best. The PCL Player of the Week, 1B John Lindsey of Albuquerque (Dodgers) is 33! He batted .538 (21-39) with two homers, 13 RBI and 13 runs in a hitters’ home park. OF John Mayberry, 26, of Lehigh Valley (Phillies) had an 11-for-21 (.538) week with a homer, five RBI and eight runs.
In Double-A, 25-year-old 1B Andrew Brown began the Texas League season 3-for-18, but last week batted .423 (11-26) with three homers, 11 RBI and five runs for Springfield (Cardinals). In the two games where I saw him play, he was 1-for-8 (a home run) and didn’t impress me as a prospect. Evans began the season 16-for-43 (.372) with three homers, 10 RBI and 11 runs.
The other Players of the Week were LF Dan Robertson of Lake Elsinore (Padres, high Class A California League), .400 (16-40), one homer, eight RBI, eight runs and a stolen base); RF Jerry Sands of Great Lakes (Dodgers, low A Midwest League), .439 (18-41), two homers, 12 RBI, 11 runs, two steals, and 3B Tyler Kolodny of Delmarva (Orioles, low Class A South Atlantic League), .386 (17-44), six homers, 11 RBI, 11 runs and two stolen bases.
The Double-A Pitchers of the Week also were older than the prime age for a prospect – 25-year-old LHP Luis Perez of New Hampshire (Blue Jays, Eastern League), 2-0, 0.53, 11:6 K/w ratio in 17 innings; 27-year-old Tom Cochran, a former independent-league pitcher now with Carolina (Reds, Southern League), 2-0, 0.75, 15:3 K/W ratio in 12 innings, and 26-year-old RHP Federico Castaneda of Northwest Arkansas (Royals, Texas League), 0-0 with an 0.00 ERA and 11:1 K/W ratio in 9 2/3 relief innings. Castaneda, who has spent five years in the Mexican League, could find a spot in Kansas City’s bullpen this season.
Another Royals farmhand, 2008 first-round draft pick Michael Montgomery, was the Carolina League Pitcher of the Week at Wilmington. The lefty was 1-0 with an 0.75 ERA and 19:1 K/W ratio in 12 innings, including a 17-strikeout game against Kinston (Indians). He’ll also get to the major leagues, though not likely this year.
Other Class A Pitchers of the Week were RHP Juan Nicasio of Modesto (Rockies, California League), 1-0, 2.65 ERA, 13:2 K/W ratio in 17 innings; RHP Hector Noesi of Tampa (Yankees, FSL), 2-0, 1.50, 16:1 K/W ratio in 12 innings; Australian RHP Lian Hendriks of Beloit (Twins, Midwest League), 0-0, 0.00, 20:1 K/W ratio in 17 innings, and LHP Nick Hernandez of Lakewood (Phillies, Sally League), 2-0, 1.29, 20:1 K/W ratio in 21 innings.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer.
Padres RHP Heath Bell earned his fourth save in the day’s best-pitched game, a 1-0 victory over the Giants in which the winning pitcher, RHP Mat Latos, had a pitching line of 740012.
The only save with any kind of trouble was by Astros Lindstrom, whose third save came in a game he entered with a 7-4 lead against the Marlins and left with a line of 121100.
The other saves were by Reds RHP Francisco Cordero, fifth, 11-9 vs. the Dodgers; Angels RHP Fernando Rodney, fifth, 6-5 over the Tigers; Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gregg, fourth, 4-3 against the Royals; White Sox RHP Bobby Jenks, third, 4-1 vs. the Rays, and Diamondbacks RHP Chad Qualls, second, 9-7 over the Cardinals.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Trio of hot teams in Eastern Western
We’re getting back toward our normal schedule, when the Tuesday Emails will contain Minor League updates, letting you know which players you could look for to move up from the minors or up through an organization.
NOTE: We have extended the free period for these Emails again – through Sunday, April 25. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
Before then, we’ll tell you how you can subscribe to receive these Emails five or more times per week, along with timely Articles and other information that will be added to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Subscriptions will include Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay, and he was only one of our picks that were on the money. Choosing him was inspired; he was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Let us know of your interest and what you’d like to see by Emailing lary@fantasybaseballscout.com.
Subscribers will be able to ask questions specific to their fantasy teams and leagues, and receive answers through these Emails, the web site or personal Emails.
Leading the way
Through the first six games, no team in Triple-A or Double-A remained undefeated. And for a change, the schedules weren’t disrupted by inclement weather.
The top records were 5-1. In Triple-A, Syracuse (Nationals organization) had the best record in the International League, and Nashville (Brewers) and Las Vegas (Blue Jays) were 5-1 in the Pacific Coast League. The 5-1 teams in Double-A all were in the same division. Akron (Indians), Altoona (Pirates) and Bowie (Orioles) all were 5-1 in the Eastern League’s Western Division.
Here are some of the early individual leaders:
In Triple-A, the top batting averages belonged to veteran players rather than prospects. Atop the IL were SSs Wilson Valdez of Lehigh Valley (Phillies) and Brett Lillibridge of Charlotte (White Sox), both 10-for-22 (.455). The PCL leaders were 1B John Lindsey of Albuquerque (Dodgers), 13-for-22 (.591) and OF Chris Denorfia of Portland (Padres) 10-for-20 (.500).
Home runs – C Carlos Santana, Columbus (Indians), 4.
RBI – 3B/1B Dallas McPherson, Sacramento (Athletics), 11, and OF Chris Duffy, Lehigh Valley 10.
Stolen bases – OFs Clete Thomas, Toledo (Tigers), 5, and Jason Bourgeois, Round Rock (Astros), 4.
Saves – RHP Dale Thayer, Durham (Rays), and Chris Smith, Nashville, 3. There was a wide discrepancy in their effectiveness, however. Thayer’s ERA was 5.40 and Smith’s 0.00 with a pitching line of 310012.
The best starting pitchers in each league have been Sacramento RHP Vin Mazzaro – with a 1-0 record, 0.00 ERA and 12:3 strikeout/walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings – in the PCL, and our Best Arm from the Farm, RHP Jeremy Hellickson of Durham in the IL. He’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 13:2 K/W ratio in 11 1/3 innings.
The Double-A batting leaders include 2B David Adams of Trenton (Yankees) at .500 (12-for-24) in the Eastern League and C Guillermo Quiroz of West Tenn (Mariners) at .467 (7-for-15) with seven RBI in the Southern League.
The RBI leaders include OF Lance Duda of Binghamton (Mets) in the EL and 1Bs Koby Clemens of Corpus Christi (Astros) and Steve Kleen of Midland (Athletics) in the Texas League. You’ve probably heard of Clemens’ father. RF Ty Wright of Tennessee (Cubs) also had seven RBI in the Southern League. His teammate, OF Tony Campana, led Double-A with four stolen bases.
The Double-A saves leader was RHP Neil Wagner of Akron with three, from a pitching line of 4 1/3 31124. RHP Matt Buschmann of San Antonio (Padres) was off to a good start in the TL with a 1-0 record and 0.00 ERA in 5 2/3 innings.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer.
RHP Francisco Cordero picked up his fourth save in the Reds’ 10-8, 11-inning victory at Florida.
Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera’s third save came after he entered their game against the Angels with one out in the ninth inning after Angels OF Bobby Abreu had cleared the bases with a grand slam. Rivera faced just two batters to preserve New York’s 7-5 win. Also receiving his third save was Mariners RHP David Aardsma. Seattle defeated the Athletics 3-0, with its starter, RHP Doug Fister, producing a line of 830004 and all of the runs coming on OF Milton Bradley’s three-run homer in the eighth inning against Oakland RHP Brad Ziegler.
Another third save was by Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gregg in a 3-2 victory over the White Sox. He could take the closer’s job away from RHP Jason Frasor, who also has three saves, or one of them could be traded to a team with some hitters – perhaps an outfielder? – but needing a closer.
RHP Octavio Dotel’s second save for the Pirates was more difficult that it should have been. He entered the game in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run lead in San Francisco, and gave up a two-run homer to OF/2B Eugenio Velez. Dotel and the Bucs escaped with a 6-5 win.
Other second saves went to Tigers RHP Jose Valverde in a 6-5 victory against the Royals, and Rays RHP Rafael Soriano despite giving up a run in an 8-6, 10-inning win at Baltimore.
NOTE: We have extended the free period for these Emails again – through Sunday, April 25. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
Before then, we’ll tell you how you can subscribe to receive these Emails five or more times per week, along with timely Articles and other information that will be added to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Subscriptions will include Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay, and he was only one of our picks that were on the money. Choosing him was inspired; he was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Let us know of your interest and what you’d like to see by Emailing lary@fantasybaseballscout.com.
Subscribers will be able to ask questions specific to their fantasy teams and leagues, and receive answers through these Emails, the web site or personal Emails.
Leading the way
Through the first six games, no team in Triple-A or Double-A remained undefeated. And for a change, the schedules weren’t disrupted by inclement weather.
The top records were 5-1. In Triple-A, Syracuse (Nationals organization) had the best record in the International League, and Nashville (Brewers) and Las Vegas (Blue Jays) were 5-1 in the Pacific Coast League. The 5-1 teams in Double-A all were in the same division. Akron (Indians), Altoona (Pirates) and Bowie (Orioles) all were 5-1 in the Eastern League’s Western Division.
Here are some of the early individual leaders:
In Triple-A, the top batting averages belonged to veteran players rather than prospects. Atop the IL were SSs Wilson Valdez of Lehigh Valley (Phillies) and Brett Lillibridge of Charlotte (White Sox), both 10-for-22 (.455). The PCL leaders were 1B John Lindsey of Albuquerque (Dodgers), 13-for-22 (.591) and OF Chris Denorfia of Portland (Padres) 10-for-20 (.500).
Home runs – C Carlos Santana, Columbus (Indians), 4.
RBI – 3B/1B Dallas McPherson, Sacramento (Athletics), 11, and OF Chris Duffy, Lehigh Valley 10.
Stolen bases – OFs Clete Thomas, Toledo (Tigers), 5, and Jason Bourgeois, Round Rock (Astros), 4.
Saves – RHP Dale Thayer, Durham (Rays), and Chris Smith, Nashville, 3. There was a wide discrepancy in their effectiveness, however. Thayer’s ERA was 5.40 and Smith’s 0.00 with a pitching line of 310012.
The best starting pitchers in each league have been Sacramento RHP Vin Mazzaro – with a 1-0 record, 0.00 ERA and 12:3 strikeout/walk ratio in 10 1/3 innings – in the PCL, and our Best Arm from the Farm, RHP Jeremy Hellickson of Durham in the IL. He’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 13:2 K/W ratio in 11 1/3 innings.
The Double-A batting leaders include 2B David Adams of Trenton (Yankees) at .500 (12-for-24) in the Eastern League and C Guillermo Quiroz of West Tenn (Mariners) at .467 (7-for-15) with seven RBI in the Southern League.
The RBI leaders include OF Lance Duda of Binghamton (Mets) in the EL and 1Bs Koby Clemens of Corpus Christi (Astros) and Steve Kleen of Midland (Athletics) in the Texas League. You’ve probably heard of Clemens’ father. RF Ty Wright of Tennessee (Cubs) also had seven RBI in the Southern League. His teammate, OF Tony Campana, led Double-A with four stolen bases.
The Double-A saves leader was RHP Neil Wagner of Akron with three, from a pitching line of 4 1/3 31124. RHP Matt Buschmann of San Antonio (Padres) was off to a good start in the TL with a 1-0 record and 0.00 ERA in 5 2/3 innings.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer.
RHP Francisco Cordero picked up his fourth save in the Reds’ 10-8, 11-inning victory at Florida.
Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera’s third save came after he entered their game against the Angels with one out in the ninth inning after Angels OF Bobby Abreu had cleared the bases with a grand slam. Rivera faced just two batters to preserve New York’s 7-5 win. Also receiving his third save was Mariners RHP David Aardsma. Seattle defeated the Athletics 3-0, with its starter, RHP Doug Fister, producing a line of 830004 and all of the runs coming on OF Milton Bradley’s three-run homer in the eighth inning against Oakland RHP Brad Ziegler.
Another third save was by Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gregg in a 3-2 victory over the White Sox. He could take the closer’s job away from RHP Jason Frasor, who also has three saves, or one of them could be traded to a team with some hitters – perhaps an outfielder? – but needing a closer.
RHP Octavio Dotel’s second save for the Pirates was more difficult that it should have been. He entered the game in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run lead in San Francisco, and gave up a two-run homer to OF/2B Eugenio Velez. Dotel and the Bucs escaped with a 6-5 win.
Other second saves went to Tigers RHP Jose Valverde in a 6-5 victory against the Royals, and Rays RHP Rafael Soriano despite giving up a run in an 8-6, 10-inning win at Baltimore.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Making their mark: Mills, Reckling, Holland, Chacin
On Thursday evenings during the regular season our Emails to you usually would consist of News and Notes. Those notes also could include items you would see on other days of the week – such as injuries, minor league news, changes in pitching rotations, players lighting it up or stinking up stadiums.
This week, because the minor league season didn’t begin until Thursday, we switched the News and Notes to Tuesday and are bringing you information on those opening games.
NOTE: We have extended the free period for these Emails through Sunday, April 18. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
During this weekend, we’ll provide you with information on how you can subscribe for five (or more)-times-a-week themed Emails during the regular season.
That subscription would include occasional Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay. He was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Let us know of your interest and what you’d like to see by Emailing lary@fantasybaseballscout.com.
Thanks for your continuing interest in and support of Fantasy Baseball Scout.
A key to first pitching call-ups
A rule of thumb is that the first pitcher a major league team recalls during the regular season is the Opening Day starting pitcher for its Triple-A affiliate. That isn’t always the case, because sometimes a team needs a pitcher to fill a specific role, such as left-handed relief specialist, and sometimes by the time the parent team needs a pitcher the Opening Day guy has been injured or has pitched himself out of consideration.
As a service to you, we’re providing a list of the starters for each of the 30 Triple-A teams’ opener.
Not entirely a list, though, because we want to single out a few – most of whom are top prospects who had exceptional pitching lines. The best effort was by Blue Jays LHP prospect Brad Mills, with a line of 620009 for Las Vegas. Angels LHP prospect Trevor Reckling’s line for Salt Lake City was 650023. Our Best Arm from the Farm, Rays RHP prospect Jeremy Hellickson, was 542116 for Durham. LHP Derek Holland, who was in the Rangers’ rotation last season and should be again this season before long, gave up a run on career minor leaguer Michael Restovich’s home run for Triple-A Albuquerque as part of a line of 651106. RHP Vin Mazzaro, down from the Athletics rotation, had a line of 4 1/3 0027 for Sacramento. The best line for a National League affiliate was the 510016 for Jhoulys Chacin with Colorado Springs in the Rockies’ organization.
The Red Sox sent RHP Boof Bonser to Pawtucket to start on an injury-rehab assignment. Others who have enough years that they’re no longer considered prospects were RHP Ruddy Lugo, Toledo (Tigers); RHP David Pauley, Tacoma (Mariners); RHP Josh Banks, Round Rock (Astros); RHP Kameron Loe, Nashville (Brewers); RHP Kevin Hart, Indianapolis (Pirates), and LHP Evan MacLane, Memphis (Cardinals).
The other Triple-A starters were RHP Chris Tillman, Norfolk (Orioles); RHP Lucas Harrell, Charlotte (White Sox); RHP Carlos Carrasco, Columbus (Indians); RHP Gaby Hernandez, Omaha (Royals); RHP Anthony Swarzak, Rochester (Twins); RHP Ivan Nova, Scranton (Yankees); RHP Kevin Mulvey, Reno (Diamondbacks); RHP Jim Parr, Gwinnett (Braves); RHP J.R. Mathes, Iowa (Cubs); RHP Sam LeCure, Louisville (Reds); RHP Ryan Tucker, New Orleans (Marlins); RHP James McDonald, Albuquerque (Dodgers); RHP Tobi Stoner, Buffalo (Mets); LHP Brian Mazone, Lehigh Valley (Phillies); LHP Wade LeBlanc, Portland (Padres); RHP Kevin Pucetas, Fresno (Giants), and RHP J.D. Martin, Syracuse (Nationals).
Making his regular-season pro debut Sunday is Nationals RHP prospect Stephen Strasburg, who will start for Double-A Harrisburg. That’s the same day Reds LHP prospect Aroldis Chapman is scheduled to start for Louisville at Toledo.
The day’s hitting hero was Indians C prospect Carlos Santana, who had a memorable Triple-A debut with two home runs in Columbus’ 17-4 rout of Indianapolis.
Major matters
The Rangers put C Salty on the 15-day disabled list because of a tight upper back. He told the team after Tuesday’s game, in which he struck out as a pinch hitter, that he had been injured Monday. GM Jon Daniels admitted that the team was upset, but added that there wouldn’t be any action taken against Salty. To take his place, Texas purchased from Triple-A Oklahoma City the contract of C Matt Treanor, a fantasy non-factor. In most games, C Taylor Teagarden will be given a chance to kill your fantasy team’s batting average.
Also missing the Rangers-Blue Jays game was 2B Aaron Hill, because of a tight right hamstring. In his place was 29-year-old minor league journeyman Mike McCoy, who led off the game with his first major league hit and had another single to drive in a run during Toronto’s game-winning three-run rally in the ninth inning.
The Mariners fortified their bullpen by adding RHP Jesus Colome. To make room, they designated OF Ryan Langerhans for assignment.
Jonny Gomes’ walk-off home run against Cardinals RHP Jason Motte gave the Reds a 2-1 victory at home.
Our Jarrod Washburn Award winner, RHP Kevin Slowey, earned his first win with a pitching line of 5 1/3 71123 in the Twins’ 10-1 rout at LA/Anaheim.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. We’ve also put a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games.
Blue Jays RHP Jason Frasor picked up his second save in their 3-1 victory at Texas. Toronto won with three runs in the ninth as the Rangers’ closer, RHP Frank Francisco pitched for the cycle – allowing a home run, triple, double and single in that order.
Indians RHP Chris Perez also had his second save, in a 5-3 win on the south side of Chicago.
Receiving their first save were Nationals RHP Matt Capps, 6-5 over the Phillies; Cubs RHP Carlos Marmol, in relief of RHP Randy Wells in a 2-0 victory in Atlanta; Orioles LHP Mike Gonzalez, finishing up for LHP Brian Matusz in a 5-4 win at Tampa Bay, and Marlins RHP Leo Nunez, in relief of LHP Nate Robertson as Florida won 3-1 at CitiField.
This week, because the minor league season didn’t begin until Thursday, we switched the News and Notes to Tuesday and are bringing you information on those opening games.
NOTE: We have extended the free period for these Emails through Sunday, April 18. After that date, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
During this weekend, we’ll provide you with information on how you can subscribe for five (or more)-times-a-week themed Emails during the regular season.
That subscription would include occasional Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay. He was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Let us know of your interest and what you’d like to see by Emailing lary@fantasybaseballscout.com.
Thanks for your continuing interest in and support of Fantasy Baseball Scout.
A key to first pitching call-ups
A rule of thumb is that the first pitcher a major league team recalls during the regular season is the Opening Day starting pitcher for its Triple-A affiliate. That isn’t always the case, because sometimes a team needs a pitcher to fill a specific role, such as left-handed relief specialist, and sometimes by the time the parent team needs a pitcher the Opening Day guy has been injured or has pitched himself out of consideration.
As a service to you, we’re providing a list of the starters for each of the 30 Triple-A teams’ opener.
Not entirely a list, though, because we want to single out a few – most of whom are top prospects who had exceptional pitching lines. The best effort was by Blue Jays LHP prospect Brad Mills, with a line of 620009 for Las Vegas. Angels LHP prospect Trevor Reckling’s line for Salt Lake City was 650023. Our Best Arm from the Farm, Rays RHP prospect Jeremy Hellickson, was 542116 for Durham. LHP Derek Holland, who was in the Rangers’ rotation last season and should be again this season before long, gave up a run on career minor leaguer Michael Restovich’s home run for Triple-A Albuquerque as part of a line of 651106. RHP Vin Mazzaro, down from the Athletics rotation, had a line of 4 1/3 0027 for Sacramento. The best line for a National League affiliate was the 510016 for Jhoulys Chacin with Colorado Springs in the Rockies’ organization.
The Red Sox sent RHP Boof Bonser to Pawtucket to start on an injury-rehab assignment. Others who have enough years that they’re no longer considered prospects were RHP Ruddy Lugo, Toledo (Tigers); RHP David Pauley, Tacoma (Mariners); RHP Josh Banks, Round Rock (Astros); RHP Kameron Loe, Nashville (Brewers); RHP Kevin Hart, Indianapolis (Pirates), and LHP Evan MacLane, Memphis (Cardinals).
The other Triple-A starters were RHP Chris Tillman, Norfolk (Orioles); RHP Lucas Harrell, Charlotte (White Sox); RHP Carlos Carrasco, Columbus (Indians); RHP Gaby Hernandez, Omaha (Royals); RHP Anthony Swarzak, Rochester (Twins); RHP Ivan Nova, Scranton (Yankees); RHP Kevin Mulvey, Reno (Diamondbacks); RHP Jim Parr, Gwinnett (Braves); RHP J.R. Mathes, Iowa (Cubs); RHP Sam LeCure, Louisville (Reds); RHP Ryan Tucker, New Orleans (Marlins); RHP James McDonald, Albuquerque (Dodgers); RHP Tobi Stoner, Buffalo (Mets); LHP Brian Mazone, Lehigh Valley (Phillies); LHP Wade LeBlanc, Portland (Padres); RHP Kevin Pucetas, Fresno (Giants), and RHP J.D. Martin, Syracuse (Nationals).
Making his regular-season pro debut Sunday is Nationals RHP prospect Stephen Strasburg, who will start for Double-A Harrisburg. That’s the same day Reds LHP prospect Aroldis Chapman is scheduled to start for Louisville at Toledo.
The day’s hitting hero was Indians C prospect Carlos Santana, who had a memorable Triple-A debut with two home runs in Columbus’ 17-4 rout of Indianapolis.
Major matters
The Rangers put C Salty on the 15-day disabled list because of a tight upper back. He told the team after Tuesday’s game, in which he struck out as a pinch hitter, that he had been injured Monday. GM Jon Daniels admitted that the team was upset, but added that there wouldn’t be any action taken against Salty. To take his place, Texas purchased from Triple-A Oklahoma City the contract of C Matt Treanor, a fantasy non-factor. In most games, C Taylor Teagarden will be given a chance to kill your fantasy team’s batting average.
Also missing the Rangers-Blue Jays game was 2B Aaron Hill, because of a tight right hamstring. In his place was 29-year-old minor league journeyman Mike McCoy, who led off the game with his first major league hit and had another single to drive in a run during Toronto’s game-winning three-run rally in the ninth inning.
The Mariners fortified their bullpen by adding RHP Jesus Colome. To make room, they designated OF Ryan Langerhans for assignment.
Jonny Gomes’ walk-off home run against Cardinals RHP Jason Motte gave the Reds a 2-1 victory at home.
Our Jarrod Washburn Award winner, RHP Kevin Slowey, earned his first win with a pitching line of 5 1/3 71123 in the Twins’ 10-1 rout at LA/Anaheim.
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. We’ve also put a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games.
Blue Jays RHP Jason Frasor picked up his second save in their 3-1 victory at Texas. Toronto won with three runs in the ninth as the Rangers’ closer, RHP Frank Francisco pitched for the cycle – allowing a home run, triple, double and single in that order.
Indians RHP Chris Perez also had his second save, in a 5-3 win on the south side of Chicago.
Receiving their first save were Nationals RHP Matt Capps, 6-5 over the Phillies; Cubs RHP Carlos Marmol, in relief of RHP Randy Wells in a 2-0 victory in Atlanta; Orioles LHP Mike Gonzalez, finishing up for LHP Brian Matusz in a 5-4 win at Tampa Bay, and Marlins RHP Leo Nunez, in relief of LHP Nate Robertson as Florida won 3-1 at CitiField.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Fantasy Baseball Scout honors
First, an apology.
I had hoped that we’d be able to provide as much information this spring as we have in years past while rebuilding the web site and operating as a free site.
We have given you some pretty good information, but not with the volume or consistency we would have liked. In the absence of revenue from fantasybaseballscout.com, I have had to seek other sources of income. Those other jobs, family and other day-to-day concerns have taken a lot of time away from Emailing and blogging.
This Email will inform you briefly about some of the annual awards and other information we give you concerning sleepers, minor league pitchers and such.
We have had a number of requests from people trying to subscribe to our site. We have had to decline politely their requests to pay us, thanking them for their continued interest.
With the season coming up, we can offer a couple of services to former subscribers and other interested people – for modest fees.
We would offer those based on the amount of interest expressed. You should be able to understand that if we offer a service for $20 or $25 for the season, it would make a lot more sense if a thousand or even a hundred people signed up than if he had 5 or 10 subscribers.
Possible services would be
1) In-season Emails, five or more times a week. These would be the same as we have offered in the past: pitching charts on Saturdays, Weekend Update/Hot and Not on Mondays, minor league updates Tuesdays, injury updates Wednesdays and News and Notes Thursdays.
2) An Email or text service to answer questions specific to your fantasy teams. We would offer renewable packages of – for example, 5, 10 or 20 questions – with the rate per question lower at the higher volumes.
3) You could also request a specific service. We could weigh the demand and the feasibility and add offer such a service.
If you’d be interested in any kind of in-season package, please Email me at lary@fantasybaseballscout. Or Email me anyway with any comments or suggestions.
In the meantime, we’ll be giving you regular Emails through the regular season’s first week.
Fantasy Baseball Scout award winners
Since the time we selected Derrek Lee as the breakout batter of 2003, our first year in operation, we have selected such a player for the (named after his big success, following an interview in Jupiter, Fla., with Lee himself) preseason Derrek Lee Award.
The 2010 winner is Astros RF Hunter Pence, who should be able to help you in five offensive categories if enough of his teammates get on base or drive him in. We’re also very high on Indians OF Shin-soo Choo, who probably would be considered an emerging superstar if he played in New York or Boston instead of Cleveland.
Our 2010 Jarrod Washburn Award winner (for the inexpensive pitcher who will rack up the wins, as our privately recommended Washburn had in 2002) is a familiar name – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey. He was a 2009 winner as well. Slowey still meets our criteria because he hasn’t won more than 13 games in a season. He would have exceeded that level easily if he hadn’t been injured last season, and the same elements are there to predict success for Slowey in ’10.
Other honorees
Best Arm from the Farm: Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson. Tampa Bay has been very patient to date with Hellickson, who has done nothing but win at every level of the minor leagues. He’s not likely to begin this season in the Rays’ rotation, but expect to see him there by midseason. Don’t expect him to walk many batters. Control has been the major secret of his success.
Most Improved Lineup: There haven’t been major changes, but the Twins should have overall improvement. The only wild card is their new stadium, which is expected to be offensively neutral, with no more doubles off the baggie.
Look at these elements. Two of the best offensive performers in baseball, C Joe Mauer and 1B Justin Morneau. Each missed nearly a month last season, and still were among the Americn League leaders. They still are young enough to improve their performance. So are OFs Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer, each capable of driving in 100 runs. Jim Thome has been added as the DH. He’s no longer a 40-home run threat, but he’ll walk enough to be on base when a teammate homers. Speaking of scoring runs, CF Denard Span is another budding star at the top of the lineup. Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, added as the middle-infield starters, will be much better than the automatic outs they’re replacing. The piece that really could put the Twins’ offense over the top is LF Delmon Young. Minnesota has so many potent left-handed bats – Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Thome, Span – that pitchers will save southpaws to pitch against the Twinkies. More lefties mean more opportunities for the right-handed-batting Young.
I had hoped that we’d be able to provide as much information this spring as we have in years past while rebuilding the web site and operating as a free site.
We have given you some pretty good information, but not with the volume or consistency we would have liked. In the absence of revenue from fantasybaseballscout.com, I have had to seek other sources of income. Those other jobs, family and other day-to-day concerns have taken a lot of time away from Emailing and blogging.
This Email will inform you briefly about some of the annual awards and other information we give you concerning sleepers, minor league pitchers and such.
We have had a number of requests from people trying to subscribe to our site. We have had to decline politely their requests to pay us, thanking them for their continued interest.
With the season coming up, we can offer a couple of services to former subscribers and other interested people – for modest fees.
We would offer those based on the amount of interest expressed. You should be able to understand that if we offer a service for $20 or $25 for the season, it would make a lot more sense if a thousand or even a hundred people signed up than if he had 5 or 10 subscribers.
Possible services would be
1) In-season Emails, five or more times a week. These would be the same as we have offered in the past: pitching charts on Saturdays, Weekend Update/Hot and Not on Mondays, minor league updates Tuesdays, injury updates Wednesdays and News and Notes Thursdays.
2) An Email or text service to answer questions specific to your fantasy teams. We would offer renewable packages of – for example, 5, 10 or 20 questions – with the rate per question lower at the higher volumes.
3) You could also request a specific service. We could weigh the demand and the feasibility and add offer such a service.
If you’d be interested in any kind of in-season package, please Email me at lary@fantasybaseballscout. Or Email me anyway with any comments or suggestions.
In the meantime, we’ll be giving you regular Emails through the regular season’s first week.
Fantasy Baseball Scout award winners
Since the time we selected Derrek Lee as the breakout batter of 2003, our first year in operation, we have selected such a player for the (named after his big success, following an interview in Jupiter, Fla., with Lee himself) preseason Derrek Lee Award.
The 2010 winner is Astros RF Hunter Pence, who should be able to help you in five offensive categories if enough of his teammates get on base or drive him in. We’re also very high on Indians OF Shin-soo Choo, who probably would be considered an emerging superstar if he played in New York or Boston instead of Cleveland.
Our 2010 Jarrod Washburn Award winner (for the inexpensive pitcher who will rack up the wins, as our privately recommended Washburn had in 2002) is a familiar name – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey. He was a 2009 winner as well. Slowey still meets our criteria because he hasn’t won more than 13 games in a season. He would have exceeded that level easily if he hadn’t been injured last season, and the same elements are there to predict success for Slowey in ’10.
Other honorees
Best Arm from the Farm: Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson. Tampa Bay has been very patient to date with Hellickson, who has done nothing but win at every level of the minor leagues. He’s not likely to begin this season in the Rays’ rotation, but expect to see him there by midseason. Don’t expect him to walk many batters. Control has been the major secret of his success.
Most Improved Lineup: There haven’t been major changes, but the Twins should have overall improvement. The only wild card is their new stadium, which is expected to be offensively neutral, with no more doubles off the baggie.
Look at these elements. Two of the best offensive performers in baseball, C Joe Mauer and 1B Justin Morneau. Each missed nearly a month last season, and still were among the Americn League leaders. They still are young enough to improve their performance. So are OFs Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer, each capable of driving in 100 runs. Jim Thome has been added as the DH. He’s no longer a 40-home run threat, but he’ll walk enough to be on base when a teammate homers. Speaking of scoring runs, CF Denard Span is another budding star at the top of the lineup. Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, added as the middle-infield starters, will be much better than the automatic outs they’re replacing. The piece that really could put the Twins’ offense over the top is LF Delmon Young. Minnesota has so many potent left-handed bats – Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Thome, Span – that pitchers will save southpaws to pitch against the Twinkies. More lefties mean more opportunities for the right-handed-batting Young.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Durham wins Triple-A Championship; my man Hellickson is MVP
The Durham Bulls are the champions of minor league baseball for 2009.
Durham defeated the Memphis Redbirds tonight at Oklahoma City’s Bricktown Ballpark in the Triple-A National Championship. To most people, the means the Bulls are sort of like the champions of the tallest group of midgXXXX, little people.
The game’s most valuable player was a guy who hadn’t been in the game for more than two hours when it ended after 11 innings and 3:48. Durham right-hander Jeremy Hellickson allowed just two hits and a walk in five scoreless innings, left with a 4-0 lead and watched the Bull pen give up the lead.
The Bulls won it 5-4, when Oneli Perez entered the game as Memphis’ sixth pitcher and threw one pitch. The ball went to the backstop, and pinch runner Rashad Eldridge scored from third base on the wild pitch.
The Bulls, representing the International League as the Tampa Bay Rays’ top farm team, defeated the St. Louis Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate that won the Pacific Coast League championship.
Doubles by Ray Olmedo and Desmond Jennings broke a scoreless in the bottom of the third inning. Durham was designated as the home team as a reward for the International League’s victory in the Triple-A all-star game.
Sean Rodriguez led off the fourth with a home run into the left field seats. The Bulls added two more in the inning on Olmedo’s run-scoring double and losing pitcher P.J. Walters’ mental lapse.
With two out and Olmedo at second base, Walters ran to cover first base on a grounder to first baseman Mark Hamilton, but too late to put out the speedy Jennings. As Walters continued past first base, Olmedo broke for home and beat the pitcher’s throw.
Dutham left-hander Jason Cromer nearly undid the Bulls’ 4-0 lead while pitching to four batters and retiring none of them.
Jon Jay led off the Redbirds’ sixth with an opposite-field home run to left field. After Tyler Greene singled, Allen Craig sliced a two-run homer over the wall near the 325-foot mark at the right field foul pole to cut the lead to 4-3.
Memphis tied the game in the seventh on David Freese’s sacrifice fly sandwiched among three walks and a hit batsman.
It was good to see Hellickson win the MVP award, and to get a chance to talk with him. He has spent the last two or three years in some of my fantasy teams’ farm system. Here’s why I like him: In 4 ½ minor league seasons, Hellickson has a 37-13 record -- including 9-2 this year for Double-A Montgomery and Durham. And a whole lot of other excellent statistics that tell me he’ll be a star in the major leagues as soon as 2010.
Durham defeated the Memphis Redbirds tonight at Oklahoma City’s Bricktown Ballpark in the Triple-A National Championship. To most people, the means the Bulls are sort of like the champions of the tallest group of midgXXXX, little people.
The game’s most valuable player was a guy who hadn’t been in the game for more than two hours when it ended after 11 innings and 3:48. Durham right-hander Jeremy Hellickson allowed just two hits and a walk in five scoreless innings, left with a 4-0 lead and watched the Bull pen give up the lead.
The Bulls won it 5-4, when Oneli Perez entered the game as Memphis’ sixth pitcher and threw one pitch. The ball went to the backstop, and pinch runner Rashad Eldridge scored from third base on the wild pitch.
The Bulls, representing the International League as the Tampa Bay Rays’ top farm team, defeated the St. Louis Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate that won the Pacific Coast League championship.
Doubles by Ray Olmedo and Desmond Jennings broke a scoreless in the bottom of the third inning. Durham was designated as the home team as a reward for the International League’s victory in the Triple-A all-star game.
Sean Rodriguez led off the fourth with a home run into the left field seats. The Bulls added two more in the inning on Olmedo’s run-scoring double and losing pitcher P.J. Walters’ mental lapse.
With two out and Olmedo at second base, Walters ran to cover first base on a grounder to first baseman Mark Hamilton, but too late to put out the speedy Jennings. As Walters continued past first base, Olmedo broke for home and beat the pitcher’s throw.
Dutham left-hander Jason Cromer nearly undid the Bulls’ 4-0 lead while pitching to four batters and retiring none of them.
Jon Jay led off the Redbirds’ sixth with an opposite-field home run to left field. After Tyler Greene singled, Allen Craig sliced a two-run homer over the wall near the 325-foot mark at the right field foul pole to cut the lead to 4-3.
Memphis tied the game in the seventh on David Freese’s sacrifice fly sandwiched among three walks and a hit batsman.
It was good to see Hellickson win the MVP award, and to get a chance to talk with him. He has spent the last two or three years in some of my fantasy teams’ farm system. Here’s why I like him: In 4 ½ minor league seasons, Hellickson has a 37-13 record -- including 9-2 this year for Double-A Montgomery and Durham. And a whole lot of other excellent statistics that tell me he’ll be a star in the major leagues as soon as 2010.
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