It's time to start looking at fast starts

The first month of the season has gotten away from me.
It has been a busy time -- with hockey and basketball coverage, the Final Four, my wedding and by my count so far five Rangers games and eight RoughRiders.
I've had an unusual Friday and Saturday off from any pro sports coverage -- though I did watch parts of the Stars and Rangers games, and the end of Blues-Blackhawks last night after a lengthy nap.
I'll be back at it Sunday with Stars playoff game six, Monday with Mavericks playoff game four, Tuesday with possibly high school softball playoffs and Wednesday with Rangers-Athletics.
Sunday also will be the end of Week 4 of the 26-week major league season.
My rule of thumb for fantasy baseball is not to make major moves until the season is five weeks old, so now is the time for me to be thinking about some possible moves.
My teams, by the way, are scuffling in the middle of the pack in all three leagues. I expect to have more specifics for you Monday after I've compiled the Week 4 stats.
After five weeks, I believe there is enough information to make informed decisions about which veterans might be losing it, which rookies are more than a flash in the pan and which players may have physical ailments that are holding them back and could cost them playing time.
If you go to mlb.com these days, you can find information encouraging you to vote for the All-Star starters. To me, it's too early to do something like that.
Remember the outrage last year when Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig wasn't on the All-Star team? Aside from the fact that about 50 players per league get on the team either from the original selections or as fill-ins for guys who beg out of the game, Puig really didn't belong in the game because his incredibly hot start was just that: a hot start. Small sample size, you know.
His 2014 start, dotted with the kind of inconsistent play and punctuality that seems to bother managers, Puig is batting .263. He has hit three home runs and stolen one base, but that's hardly All-Star caliber.
Here's another guy whose career seems to be going in the opposite direction: Rangers LHP Martin Perez.
I've been seeing him pitch for the last five seasons, mostly in the minors. During that time, Perez has shown flashes of competence, if not brilliance, but mostly inconsistency. That's inconsistent not just from game to game but often from inning to inning.
My opinion of Perez changed with his shutout of the White Sox April 18. It was an easy 12-0 victory, but it was also the first American League shutout or even complete game this season and the kind of game when his concentration might have lapsed in the past. He was economical with his pitches, and he threw ground ball after ground ball.
The AL's next shutout came five days later, when Perez pitched another three-hitter in Oakland. That stretched his winning streak to his last four starts and his scoreless streak to 26 innings. It was a fairly tense 3-0 win; the type of game when in the past one bad inning could have blown up a well pitched game.
Perez has matured, at a time when Texas needed him to shore up an injury-depleted rotation.
Now RHP Colby Lewis is back, if not in mid-season form. LHP Matt Harrison is scheduled for his first start this weekend. I saw him being brilliant in eight scoreless innings in his final rehab start for Double-A Frisco. Granted, it was against Texas League batters, but Harrison's approach was impeccable. In another couple of months, LHP Derek Holland will have recovered from his knee surgery. And until now, this paragraph hasn't included the Rangers' ace, RHP Yu Darvish.
Now, here's a preview of the kinds of things I'll be looking for in evaluating players at the five-week mark.
I look for batters with the best walk:strikeout ratios. The five major league batters with the most walks so far all have walked more often than they have struck out -- Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista 27:18 (or 1.50), Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen 21:16, Indians 3B/C Carlos Santana 20:19, Athletics SS Jed Lowrie 19:10 (1.90) and Reds 1B Joey Votto 19:18.
Three of those are no surprise. Lowrie started fast last season, but faded; he also could be a relatively low-investment shortstop, say if Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is injured again. Expect Santana's ratio to decrease. He's batting .133, so his team will expect him to be more aggressive to raise that average. He can't help you much now, but keep in mind that if he begins hitting he also will exercise pretty good strike-zone judgment.
Next in line in walks are Tulowitzki himself at 17:11, and Twins SS Brian Dozier with 17 walks but 24 strikeouts. Dozier impressed me last season as a much better player than I expected until I saw him. He has improbable statistics this year: six stolen bases and seven homers, but a mere nine RBI and a .222 average. He's a player likely to do worse if his team plays well. If Minnesota becomes a contender, pitchers would work him more closely, respecting his power, instead of giving him fastballs to hit in blowouts.
I've also looked at my pitching leading indicators. It's clear that pitchers' K:W ratios are out of whack because of small sample sizes. The leaders are Phillies LHP Cliff Lee 19.00, Yankees RHP Masahiro Tanaka 17.50, Giants RHP Tim Hudson 12.50, Mariners RHP Feliz Hernandez 10.75 and Rays LHP David Price 10.00. If any of them finish the season with ratios even half as high, they would be having an exceptional year. But the early returns indicate that the Yanks and Giants made good off-season signings.
The leaders in opponents' batting average are mixed between top pitchers and likely pretenders: Reds RHP Johnny Cueto .140, Braves RHP Aaron Harang .143, Phillies LHP Cole Hamels .151, somebody's RHP Garrett Richards .155 and Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright .165.
At the opposite end are mostly some surprising pitchers: Twins RHP Ricky Nolasco .347, Reds RHP Homer Bailey .345, Orioles LHP Wei-chin Chen .330, Twins RHP Kevin Correia .327 and Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner .314. In the next few weeks, expect to see at least two among Nolasco, Bailey, Chen and Bumgarner to go on the disabled list.
The low-end K:W pitchers are Astros RHP Scott Feldman 1.00, White Sox LHP John Danks 1.08, Phillies RHP A.J. Burnett and Twins RHP Kyle Gibson 1.18 and Orioles RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 1.24. Most of them have seen better days than they'll have this season. Gibson is off to a good start he might not be able to maintain with such a low ratio.

Orioles making over pitching staff

Who says you can't change your team even as you're going to spring training?
Clearly not the Orioles and manager Buck Showalter.
They announced a 3-year, $5.75-million contract with RHP Suk-min Yoon, and apparently are within a passed physical of adding RHP Ubaldo Jimenez for four years and $50 million.
Yoon most likely would pitch out of the bullpen, where he would be one bad game removed from a "Suck-min" headline. I'm wary of Jimenez because his pitching motion has so many ways to get out of whack and also possibly hurt his arm.
-- With money that might have gone to Jimenez, the Indians avoided arbitration with RHP Justin Masterson by signing him to a contract for this season at $9.7625 million. What? They couldn't afford another measly $237,500 to bring him up to $10 million?
-- The Rangers apparently have gone into camp with a three-way battle among RHPs Neftali Feliz, Tanner Scheppers and Joakim Soria. I was encouraged about Soria last season until a couple of really bad September outings. Texas must not be too excited  about Scheppers, because he was the headliner among a group of nine mostly marginal major leaguers signed for a year at or slightly above the $500,000 minimum. Scheppers will receive $515,000. If he does become the Rangers' closer, let's hope he doesn't spend too much of his money in The Flats in Cleveland.
-- Additional second base battles.
In Washington, it's shaping up as 2012 discovery Danny Espinosa and 2013 find Anthony Rendon. If neither matches his breakout season, it could be a long year for the Nationals and their pitchers.
The Yankees' front-runner is Brian "Can't Avoid Injury" Roberts. Other options could be Kelly "Can't Field" Johnson, Brendan "Can't Hit" Ryan and Eduardo "Can't Play Third or Short" Nunez. If a team has four second basemen, it really has no second baseman.
The spaghetti method -- take a bunch of players at one position to spring training, throw them at the all and hope one of them sticks -- really works only with pitchers. Among a group of five or six pitchers, one of them will get lucky enough to get some batters out -- at least through spring training, and even then he could become a liability during the regular season.
-- With New Age manager Brad Ausmus, the Tigers will join the growing trend of major league teams using analytics and probability to align fielders and improve their defense. Ausmus and analytics both begin with A. The new skipper's staff includes a guy named Matt Martin as defensive coordinator. Detroit also will be emphasizing speed more this season, with 2B Ian Kinsler and OF Rajai Davis (on a platoon basis) in their starting lineup. Prediction: Kinsler will steal more bases this season than Prince Fielder will.
-- It will be a surprise if the Tigers don't run away with the AL Central this year. Division rivals are making defensive changes by moving catchers to first base (Twins' Joe Mauer) and third base (Indians' Carlos Santana). Santana might be more agile than catcher-turned-third baseman Pablo Sandoval.
-- Looking ahead six weeks, the Blue Jays named RHP R.A. Dickey as their Opening Day starter.
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Basketball. The NBA started up tonight, and I learned that I didn't win Week 16 by an 8-0 margin. Apparently, Week 16 is continuing from the short last week through the short this week -- even though this is a short week loaded with games. And my lead for the week now is down to 7-1; I've fallen behind in free throw percentage.
There were good performances from my roster tonight. The Suns' Gerald Green poured in 36 points, including six 3s. Carmelo Anthony had another (yawn!) double double with 22 points and 11 rebounds.