Here you'll find my annual in-season suggestions of pitchers to keep and drop.
On the Memorial Day weekend, I measure two skills -- Strikeability, based on strikeout:walk ratio, and Hittability, based on opponents' batting average.
Dividing starting pitchers into four groups, top to bottom, in each category leads to numerical ratings ranging from 2 (for those in the top quarter in both K/W and BA) to 8 (for those in the bottom quarter of each).
The next step is to compare those ratings with who's doing well in the basic starting pitching fantasy categories -- Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
We've been through nearly two months of the season. In most cases, that's enough to gauge who will do well during the final four months. I have several years of success with this method.
A pitcher doing better in the Strikeability/Hittability ratings than in the fantasy stats is likely to be a good bet to improve in the fantasy measures. In addition, a pitcher struggling in those measures isn't someone you'll want to keep.
The pitchers ranked 2 have been the best in the majors in April and May, and should be good going forward. They're RHPs Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Tim Hudson and Masahiro Tanaka.
At the other end are the pitchers ranked 8. They might not even belong as starters in the majors, let alone on your fantasy team. The seven are RHPs Justin Masterson, Zach Wheeler and Kevin Correia, and LHPs John Danks, Franklin Morales, Robbie Ross (whom the Rangers dropped from their rotation before Memorial Day) and Eric Stults.
What you really want to know from this information is which pitchers are sleepers, the ones who have pitched better than their early results indicate. Also, which pitchers who have had statistical success are due for a fall.
Here are the top 10 lists for sleepers and slumpers, or keepers and dumpers if you prefer, with the statistical categories where you might expect improvement.
Sleepers/keepers: (Rated 2) 1. Tim Hudson (fourth quartile, SO); (Rated 3) 2. Michael Leake (fourth quartile, W and SO); 3. Rick Porcello (fourth quartile, SO); 4. Ian Kennedy (third quartile, ERA and W); 5. Scott Kazmir (third quartile, SO); 6. Michael Wacha (third quartile, W); (Rated 4) 7. Jeff Samardzija (fourth quartile, W); 8. Alfredo Simon (fourth quartile, ERA); 9. John Lackey (third quartile, ERA); 10. Marco Estrada (third quartile, ERA) and Drew Hutchison (third quartile, W). Yordano Ventura would have made the list, but he's an injury concern now. Monitor his recovery.
Also worthy of consideration are RHPs Dillon Gee, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Brandon McCarthy and LHPs Jon Niese and Tyler Skaggs.
Slumpers/dumpers: (Rated 8) 1. Justin Masterson (second quartile, SO); (Rated 7) 2. Tim Lincecum (second quartile, W and SO); 3. Homer Bailey (second quartile, W and SO); 4. Jeremy Guthrie (second quartile, WHIP); 5. Kyle Gibson (second quartile, W); 6. Bronson Arroyo (second quartile, W); 7. Charlie Morton (second quartile, ERA); 8. Edwin Jackson (second quartile, SO); 9. Henderson Alvarez (second quartile, ERA); (Rated 6) 10. Mark Buehrle (first quartile, ERA and W; second quartile, WHIP). Martin Perez would have been in the top 10, but he won't pitch again this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Other likely slumpers include LHPs Madison Bumgarner, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley and Roenis Elias, and RHPs Jordan Lyles, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Chris Archer and R.A. Dickey.
You expected Samardzija to head the sleepers list, didn't you? We heard so much about how he hadn't won even with an ERA barely in triple digits. However, his Strikeability rated just a 3 with a 2.57 K:W ratio. His ERA almost has to go up, along with his WHIP. And even if he pitches well, he's still with the Cubs until he's traded.
This year, I'm also ranking pitchers 1-103, the number of pitchers on an inning-per-game pace that would make them eligible for the ERA title.
Top quarter overall: (Rated 2) 1. Adam Wainwright, 2. Masahiro Tanaka, 3. Johnny Cueto, 4. Jose Fernandez (injured), 5. Tim Hudson, (Rated 3) 6. Felix Hernandez, 7. Zack Greinke, 8. James Shields, 9. Yu Darvish, 10. Jesse Chavez, 11. Max Scherzer, 12. Kyle Lohse, 13. Dallas Keuchel, 14. Jason Hammel, 15. Scott Kazmir, 16. Jon Lester, 17. Julio Teheran, 18. Michael Wacha, 19. Rick Porcello, 20. Yordano Ventura. 21. Ian Kennedy, 22. Michael Leake, (Rated 4) 23. Jered Weaver, 24. Sonny Gray, 25. C.J. Wilson, 26. Tyson Ross.
No real surprises at the top until we get to ... Jesse Chavez at No. 10. He has been pitching very well for Oakland, but Chavez has spent most of his career as a reliever, and we can't really know how he'd hold up during the season's second half.
Also, props to Rick Porcello, who at the time I compared these pitchers had won seven games while walking just seven. In case you're wondering, there have been three instances in major league history of a 20-game winner with more wins than walks.
Second quartile: 27. John Lackey, 28. Alfredo Simon, 29. Marco Estrada, 30. Drew Hutchison, 31. Garrett Richards, 32. Jeff Samardzija, 33. Stephen Strasburg, 34. Jon Niese, 35. Dillon Gee, 36. Tanner Roark, 37. Tyler Skaggs, 38. Brandon McCarthy, (Rated 5, average) 39. Aaron Harang, 40. Cliff Lee, 41. Corey Kluber, 42. Phil Hughes, 43. David Price, 44. Lance Lynn, 45. Travis Wood, 46. Wily Peralta, 47. Dan Haren, 48. Alex Wood, 49. Ervin Santana, 50. Jorge DeLaRosa, 51. Jason Vargas, 52. Gerrit Cole.
Third quartile: 53. Andrew Cashner, 54. Jose Quintana, 55. Gio Gonzalez, 56. Bud Norris, 57. Chris Young, 58. Hiroki Kuroda, 59. Bartolo Colon, 60. Tom Koehler, 61. Yovani Gallardo, (Rated 6) 62. Madison Bumgarner, 63. Mark Buehrle, 64. Jordan Lyles, 65. Nathan Eovaldi, 66. Shelby Miller, 67. R.A. Dickey, 68. Edinson Volquez, 69. Roenis Elias, 70. A.J. Burnett, 71. Wei-Yin Chen, 72. Chris Archer, 73. Chris Tillman, 74. Wade Miley, 75. Jordan Zimmermann, 76. Matt Garza, 77. Francisco Liriano, 78. Ryan Vogelsong, 79. Kyle Kendrick.
Bottom quarter: 80. Jarred Cosart, (Rated 7) 81. Justin Verlander, 82. Juan Nicasio, 83. Tim Lincecum, 84. Homer Bailey, 85. Martin Perez (injured), 86. Edwin Jackson, 87. Bronson Arroyo, 88. Henderson Alvarez, 89. Charlie Morton, 90. Jeremy Guthrie, 91. Kyle Gibson, 92. Jake Peavy, 93. Roberto Hernandez, 94. Ubaldo Jimenez, 95. Ricky Nolasco, 96. Clay Buchholz, (Rated 8) 97. Justin Masterson, 98. John Danks, 99. Zach Wheeler, 100. Franklin Morales, 101. Robbie Ross, 102. Kevin Correia, 103. Eric Stults.
Keep in mind that these are the poorest among the starters who would qualify in ERA, a group that includes less than 3 1/2 starters per team. So consider that few if any fifth starters, and most fourth starters, don't even qualify for the bottom quarter. You don't want those pitchers.
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