Sunday, October 31, 2010

Thoughts on Game 3

During the off day, I thought of a bunch of thoughts I wanted to add. Not only did I not have time to add those that day, but I've pretty much forgotten them. That was a Friday, and I spent from 9:30 a.m. until 11 p.m. at Wilkerson-Sanders Memorial Stadium preparing for and directing The Scoreboard Show. I'd like to say that was a rousing success, but ...

Anyway, for me Game 3 was a mishmash of checking progress on my phone and then listening to the game in the car on the way home and on the radio here. I spent Saturday afternoon at my second and third high school football games in a 24-hour period.

As a result, I don't have a huge handle on the play by play and its intracacies, so even these thoughts will be short.

Because the radio broadcast was a few seconds behind the telecast, I could get a pretty good idea of what was going to happen by hearing Margaret's reactions from the living room. For instance, I heard "Catch it!" followed by a grown and realized that a Giant had reached base on a long fly ball. Turns out it was a home run. Another team, an "Oh, no!" indicated to me that Bengie Molina probably had grounded into a double play.

And I guess that double play was kind of indicative of the Cowboys' game, and something I consider a warning sign.

By that time, the Rangers had a 4-0 lead, built on two home runs. After that, they put runners on base but couldn't bring them home. The danger is that they might have gone into their mode of "All we have to do is hit enough home runs and we'll win."

That mode leads to a lot of frustrating fly balls to the warning track and popups with runners on second and third with one out.

On the pre-game show* as well as my observations at the two afternoon football games, I knew that there was a relatively strong wind. At Rangers Ballpark, that wind usually is collected behind home plate, then blows out toward right-center field with greater force. Because it was a south wind, it also would have helped fly balls to left.

Despite that wind advantage, the Rangers still managed just two homers, and none after starter Jonathan Sanchez left the game. If they continue to go for homers today, might they have less success?

Just checked tonight's weather forecast for Arlington. Weather.com says the wind will be 9 mph from the south, so the conditions should be similar.

*-The Rangers' pre-game show on 103.3 ESPN wa an unprecedented four hours, giving way to another hour on the ESPN network. Four hours is about half of what the Cowboys get for their pre-game shows any regular-season week when their game starts after 1 p.m. Eastern.

Colby Lewis' continued strong pitching reminded me of a conversation I had with someone from the Cowboys' minor league staff during the regular season. The question was whether Lewis or Tommy Hunter would be a better choice as Texas' third postseason starter behind Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson.

His side of the conversation was that Lewis had been pitching well but had been the victim of poor run support.

My contention was that at some point, he had to take charge and win a game. That was while he was on a streak of nine games without a win, granted with poor run support. All but his final two starts during that span went six innings or more. Five were "quality starts."

Well, Lewis' last four starts all fit the lame quality criteria, and he was 3-1 during that stretch. That earned him a spot in Texas' playoff rotation and made our disagreement moot.

Meanwhile, "Big-Game" Hunter made five more starts -- with only one win, and none of which went more than six innings. He hasn't made it past four innings in either postseason start.

Two factors have to improve for the Rangers to win Game 4.

1. The offense has to manufacture runs, take more pitches and forget about home run trots until the ball clears a fence.

2. Hunter has to make it through six or more innings to help avoid a bullpen meltdown similar to the one in Game 2.

I'm more confident that Hunter could succeed than that the offense could go atainst its nature. That has happened off and on this season. Rangers fans had better hope that switch is on tonight.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Thoughts on Game 2

The first sign of trouble for Texas tonight came in the top of the fifth inning. After a leadoff double by Ian Kinsler, both David Murphy and Matt Treanor failed to hit the ball to the right side to move Kinsler over to third base in a scoreless game.
Thus, instead of potentially taking a lead, the Rangers fell behind 1-0 in the bottom of the inning. After that, Texas gave the Giants insurance runs by walking batters in the seventh and eighth.
The decreased offensive output from seven runs to none made it easy for Joe Morgan to second-guess manager Ron Washington. Morgan was all over the decision not to play Vladimir Guerrero. The announcer also pointed out that “the other good hitter,” Bengie Molina, was out of the lineup.
It’s surprising that the Hall of Famer, who was considered a good defensive second baseman would dismiss the importance of defense out of hand. Guerrero showed that he no longer can play right field in what must have been the saddest display since Willie Mays was stumbling around in center field for the 1973 Mets. By the way, that was my only direct interaction with Mays, in the Mets’ locker room after Game 2 in Oakland.
Another by the way, tonight in addition to following the fake pitches to the fake batters on the fake field at MLBAM’s Gameday, I listened to the ESPN radio broadcast. I was disappointed that radio broadcasts on the internet are blacked out.
Anyway, Guerrero didn’t belong in the lineup because he can’t play in the field and also because he hasn’t really hit much since July. I attribute Morgan’s stance to what I call the Monday Night Football Syndrome, in which out-of-town network hotshot announcers come to town and pretend they know more about the local team than the local-yokel hicks broadcasting and writing about the games. That extra knowledge usually is nonexistent.
Also, Molina, who hit very little for Texas during the regular season, wasn’t playing because starting pitcher C.J. Wilson established a rapport with Matt Treanor before Molina arrived in Texas.
So it’s possible that Guerrero could have given up some runs on defense and that Wilson might have given up more than one run in the first six innings with Molina behind the plate.
I didn’t hear what Morgan said when Julio Borbon pinch-hit to lead off the eighth inning, with the score 2-0. To me, that was an OK move for several reasons. 1. Guerrero couldn’t tie the game with a home run and could be a liability if he reached base ahead of speedster Elvis Andrus. With at least one runner on base, Vlad would have been the correct pinch-hitting choice. 2. I envisioned Borbon as bunting for a hit, then Andrus reaching base and the two of them working a double steal to get into scoring position ahead of Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. Borbon exploded that thought bubble like a cartoon character with a shotgun by swinging at the first pitch and grounding out. Perhaps he wanted to earn his Historical Texas Rangers card by swinging the bat recklessly but my God, man, you have to take at least a strike and you’re up there to get on base.
A note on Hamilton. Thus far, he has been down, up and down in the three postseason series. The biggest difference was that in the ALCS the Yankees continually pitched around him, walking him as if they were afraid of him and his bat.*
On the other hand, we have Derek Holland. I really like Holland’s future, but in the present – tonight – he entered the game with a runner on first base and two outs and gave up Darren O’Day’s run by walking three batters on 13 pitches. Was he afraid to throw a strike that could be hit? He shouldn’t be, because his pitches are good enough to get batters out.
*Joe Morgan, whom I think can do a good job but may now be too impressed with his own work, probably would say that Hamilton is a Teixeira-like 0-for-the Series because Guerrero wasn’t batting behind him tonight.
Could the Rangers’ biggest problem be Mark Lowe bad karma?
OK, so it’s two games to none, a lot worse than 1-0, but still not critical because the Rangers can regain the lead in games by winning the three games they’re “supposed” to win at home.
The biggest mystery with Texas is what the Rangers might do to win a close game. There was none after the first game against the Yankees in the ALCS. Texas’ bullpen has been spotty – with brown spots in tonight’s game. Because there have been so few close postseason games, closer Neftali Feliz, who had 40 regular-season saves, has none in any of the three playoff series.

Thoughts on Game 1

There were two very obvious warning signs during last night’s game.
1. When the Rangers came to bat in the top of the third leading 2-0, and all three batters hit fly balls for outs without seeing many pitches.
2. When the fifth inning came along and Cliff Lee had thrown about 30 pitches more than Tim Lincecum had.
The first of those sent the message that Rangers batters figured, “With Lee pitching, we have enough runs to win. We don’t have to work to score runs. Let’s just hit the ball as hard as we can.” That’s never a good approach, and even worse on the banks of McCovey Creek.
The second meant that regardless what was going to happen right then, Lee wouldn’t pitch as deep into the game as Lincecum would. It would become a game decided by the bullpens. As it turned out, the pitch count was an indicator of an even worse thing for Texas: The Rangers would lose the game with Lee before the game even got to the relievers.

FYI, this post will be more random thoughts than any coherent, cohesive narrative. I’ll be throwing out the thoughts and in some cases commenting and putting those in perspective.
 The Rangers’ first six lineup positions totaled four hits and five total bases. The 7-8-9 spots contributed seven hits and 10 total bases. That’s not a winning formula, either.
 I have no idea what the over/under was on this game, but if you bet it over, you won easily. In fact, I’m pretty sure you won before both starters were out of the game. I tried to find online a list of the highest-scoring games in World Series history, to no avail. I wouldn’t be surprised if 18 runs ranked among the 20 highest all-time.
 My World Series Preview Email talked about the grossly underrated impact of defense. Ron Washington certainly didn’t read it, or he wouldn’t have gone into a park with a big outfield with starters left to right of Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. Cruz is far better in right – where, if he wanders around under a fly ball into the right position he also can throw out a runner if his throw happens to be accurate. Hamilton is at least average, but not ideal in center field, and by far Texas’ best overall defensive outfielder. There was a time, such as when I saw Guerrero in Double-A a couple of decades ago, when he was a wonderment in right field. Now I wonder what he was doing out there.
 I didn’t watch the game on TV because I’m still on my Fox/Lone Star boycott. But I did “see” what was going on through MLB’s Gameday. That was useful for observing pitch counts and pitching patterns, but I have no idea whether some of those Giants doubles might have been outs or possibly singles with competent outfielders tracking them down. But there’s no mistaking that Guerrero wasn’t capable when he committed his two eighth-inning errors.
 There was a time when I might have dreamed about Freddy Sanchez’s hitting four doubles in a World Series game, but it’s pretty clear that would never happen in a Pirates uniform. Still, good for Freddy, an overlooked good player because of where he has played.
 Here’s a pet-peeve observation. The Rangers added Mark Lowe to their World Series roster. Whether he had struck out the side or pitched as badly as he did, I’d still feel the same way. Namely, that he shouldn’t have been allowed to be on a Rangers postseason roster. He was nowhere near the team before the Sept. 1 roster “deadline.” He pitched a few games after he came off the disabled list during the regular season’s last week. I heard that he had been pitching in the Arizona Instructional League after that, though I’m not sure whether that was the case. It used to be that players had to be on the active roster before Sept. 1 to be eligible for the – well, not playoffs, but World Series. Now it seems that the only requirement is to be somewhere on the 40-man roster, and the major league team can pick and choose from about 20 players for the last few postseason roster spots. Why is it that people now complain about having an expanded roster for September but don’t give a crap who plays in the World Series.
When I’m commissioner, the only players eligible for the postseason will be the 25 on the active roster at the end of Aug. 31, plus those few players on the disabled list then who had been active with the major league team when they were hurt.
Oh, a last point. There’s always overreaction after the World Series’ first game. It’s as if the losing team has no chance.
That attitude has some relevance if the home team loses the opener in a matchup that seems pretty even.
That isn’t the case here. The Rangers lost on the road, where they’re “supposed” to lose. If they win tonight, they’ll actually be ahead of the game – tied 1-1 with three games remaining at home, where they’re “supposed” to win.
I do understand that nearly everyone had Texas penciled, if not inked, in to win because Cliff Lee is “unbeatable” in the postseason and the Rangers were “supposed” to win whenever he pitches. However, he didn’t pitch very Cliffly. So it must be devastating that he lost, right?
Well, no, not really. During the regular season, he had a losing record with the Rangers. Sure, he was 7-0 in his career during the postseason, but could any reasonable person expect him NEVER to lose a postseason decision?
A more damaging sign for either team would be if its bullpen doesn’t pitch any better during the remainder of the series. Also, the Rangers can take heart in having some success against both Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson. Or was that an anomaly?
I lied. I still have one other point to make, and that is about Ian Kinsler’s infuriating nature. Both, or perhaps all three, of the sides to that nature showed up in Game 1.
First, there was the issue of his hitting the first pitch into an inning-ending double play with a run in, the bases loaded and one out in the top of the first. That’s a situation when a batter should be at his most selective, looking for that one pitch that is best for him to hit. Clearly, the best pitch wasn’t the one that Kinsler swung at without seeing any others.
Then in the sixth, he partially redeemed himself by working a walk with a 10-pitch at-bat. Even though the walk came with two out and no one on base, that was a good thing because it drove up Lincecum’a pitch count. It became a better thing when Texas managed to score two runs with two out and drive him from the game.
Finally, Kinsler undid that good on his next plate appearance, when he singled but thought first baseman Aubrey Huff had missed a throw. Ian started toward second base, and Huff tagged him out. That wasn’t an unusual play for Kinsler, a talented player who makes more bone-headed moves than even Nelson Cruz.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Some hockey hints

I've never played fantasy hockey.
However, I have covered an NHL game in two of the last three nights, and I've liked what I have seen from some players.
The Stars' top line features Brad Richards, a supremely talented offensive player who is making linemates Loui Eriksson and James Neal look even better than they are. Dallas doesn't have three lines of scorers -- Brenden Morrow and Mike Ribeiro seem to be the only other forwards capable of scoring -- so Eriksson and Neal might not maintain the benefit of playing with Richards for the whole season. But they would seem to be good short-term pickups at the very least.
Another surprise is goalie Kari Lehtonen. The Finn is a dude, even though he has what would be considered a girl's name in this country. He had 41 saves in Saturday's overtime game, but he might have had more good stops with maybe 25 saves Thursday night. Lehtonen is a big reason the Stars are 4-0 (don't expect that success to last either).
Perhaps the Stars are trying to emulate the Rangers. When last hockey season ended and the current baseball season was beginning, both teams were owned by impecunious ex-millionnaire Tom Hicks. Therefore, almost no money was spent on increasing salaries. Mike Modano and Marty Turco were the highest-profile free-agencydepartures. The Rangers, developing a core of young stars in their farm system, played well despite turmoil to the point where the team has gone the farthest in the franchise's 50 seasons. Don't expect the Stars to do that, which would require winning another Stanley Cup. There's a good chance they might not even reach the playoffs -- especially if the NHL can't find a buyer and players such as Richards have to be unloaded at the trade deadline. I also don't expect that coach Marc Crawrod will do cocaine and have his team rally around him.

Saturday, October 16, 2010

My fantasy lineups

I'm currently competing in three fantasy leagues: one baseball and two football.

1. Lenny Brazis Inner League, Inner League Baseball. I have been in this league since it was formed in 1988. It's the Championship Series, for which statistics for the majors' Division and Championship series are combined to determine who will go on to the Inner League World Series.

This league has two factors that differentiate it from most fantasy baseball leagues. 1) Scoring is by only one player in each of nine stat categories. Thus, it's possible for both my opponent and I to have the same player in different categories. In this case, I have Mark Teixeira for runs and my opponent has Tex for home runs.
2) There's a draft before each round to fill gaps in lineups caused by having players whose major league teams didn't qualify or no longer are in the playoffs.
So I trailed 16-11 in my head-to-head series after the Division Series ended. After that, I had to replace six players from the Twins, Reds and Rays whose teams lost in part because they perform well. I picked up a point to trail 15 1/2-11 1/2 after Friday's game because Hamilton's home run pulled me into a tie in that category, but stayed the same after Saturday's contests by falling behind in runs while I was taking the lead in batting average. My current lineup:
RBI-Guerrero
BA-Utley
R-Teixeira
HR-Hamilton
H-Young
SO-Halladay
SB-Victorino
W-Lee
S-Feliz

2. Andy Memorial Football League (charter member, since 1987). This is a scoring-only league. I'm in second place at 4-1 going in. This week for the first time I have players sitting because of byes. I think I used the same lineup of my first draft picks in each category for each of the first five weeks. In fact, I discovered that three of my four running backs have a bye this week, causing me to have to acquire a free agent. I didn't really take the time to investigate which RBs are owned in this 10-team league, but merely looked at the available freed agents in my deeper 10-team ESPN.com league. The free-agent RBs projected there to score the most points this week were John Kuhn and Earnest Graham, whom I requested in that order. My first choice, Kuhn, was available so I got him and waived Jonathan Stewart. My lineup:
QB-New York Giants (we get all of a team's quarterbacks, not just Eli Manning in my case)
RB-Chris Johnson and Kuhn
WR-Brandon Marshall and Roy Williams (replacing Larry Fitzgerald)
TE-Orlando Gates
K-New England (we get the team there too, and not an individual)
D/ST-Philadelphia

3. ESPN.com fantasy league. I'm 1-4 in this league, for which I got a crappy autodraft. Either I missed something or ESPN doesn't allow you to move players around in the draft order. I found I had to move any players I absolutely didn't want to the bottom of the list of a thousand or so players. I didn't have the time to figure out how to move the player I wanted 15 but ESPN ranked 30th ahead of a guy ESPN ranked 12th but I thought was more like 30th, so I pretty much took my chances with ESPN's order. That yielded two players I absolutely hadn't heard of on my opening-day roster. One of them, Aromasomething, had a pretty good first week so I played him the next week. I don't think the Bears have let him on the field since that first week. The other guy, whose name I don't even remember, hasn't been on my roster since the first week. But at least I could banish Brett Favre and T.O. to places from which they could never be autodrafted for me.
I this league, as I told you, I'm 1-4 but under what I believe are false pretenses. The league has two five-team divisions. Before the first week's games, my schedule said I had a bye so I didn't see any point in adjusting a crappy starting lineup to make it only slightly less crappy for a game I wasn't playing. In the second week, my team rallied for what the box score told me was a 1-point victory after Monday night.
This ESPN league has a feature called League Manager. As far as I can tell, that means whoever is the League Manager can pretty much do whatever he or she pleases. For example, changing the first week schedule after the second week's games have been played. For another example, losing the second week's game by 1 point but later adding in a 2-point "scoring adjustment" so you can win by 1. I have questioned first the necessiry of having a bye, and then taking away the bye and adding a "scoring adjustment," but haven't received an answer to either. In fact, there has been no response to any of my message board questions. I'm not really complaining about the bye-bye bye because I would have been killed that week in any event, even if I could have used my entire bench in addition to my starters.
Enough bitching about the screwed-up league structure. I've been patching together holes and making incremental improvements, in the manner of Lou Saban's 1963 Buffalo Bills. They were something like 0-5-1 and finished 7-6-1 and in a division playoff game with almost an entirely different team from opening day. That's a good story, maybe worth a book some day. So here's my lineup.
QB-Donovan McNabb -- I'd been following ESPN's projections for the most part, but have finally said, "Hell, I never wanted Matt Schaub on my autopicked team anyway" and benched him.
RB-Steven Jackson and Ryan Mathews
WR-Reggie Wayne and Roy Williams
RB/WR flex-My new main man, or at least 1st St. man, John Kuhn
TE-Tony Gonzalez
K-Matt Bryant
D/ST-Chicago
I think I have a chance to win again. The lineup of the guy I'm playing against includes two players on byes. I'd think he's waiting until the last minute to set his lineup if he hadn't played last week with three players on byes. This particular league sucks for more reasons than one. Of course, no one replied to my post about how many players with byes were "playing" in our league.

Thoughts on Rangers-Yankees

Ron Washington either doesn't have firm convictions or he hasn't been true to those convictions. Anyway, his handling of the Rangers' bullpen could come back to bite them in the butt.

First there was Game 3 of their ALDS against the Rays. Wash seemed to panic a bit, bringing in Neftali Feliz in the eighth inning, then having to go with Dustin Nippert in the ninth. That was a losing proposition.

After getting 40 saves during the season, Feliz still doesn't have one in the postseason.

By the way, as well as Feliz pitched this year, his major league "rookie" record seems tainted to me because the definition of a rookie pitcher is based on innings rather than appearances. That makes it so a starting pitcher could arrive in the majors during September and use up his innings limit, where a reliever can spend nearly half the season and still qualify as a rookie the next year.

Anyway, I think Washington did the right thing getting Feliz into a game in a non-save situation in the ALDS to have postseason experience. But I'm not sure he needed to struggle through another non-save situation today. He needs to pitch in a closer's role.

OK, I digress. Anyway, after going short (10 pitchers) during the ALDS, Washington, or maybe Jon Daniels and Nolan Ryan, did the right thing by jettisoning Nippert and replacing him with two left-handers who will be useful at Yankee Stadium. Darren Oliver has run out of gas each of the last two years. I'm not sure Clay Rapada is the right lefty to add. Matt Harrison has more experience, and there probably was a reason Rapada spent the entire season at Oklahoma City. I'm also not sure when the majors loosened their rules so that virtually anyone can be on the postseason roster even if he joined the team after th August 31 deadline. The Yankees always used to add a veteran, somebody like Hector "Skinny" Brown or Suitcase Simpson, down the stretch even knowing that they couldn't use that player in the postseason.

Back to Rapada. He redeemed himself today by striking out Marcus Thames in a non-favorable matchup when he could have turned a 7-2 game into 7-5.

This brings me back to my main point. One of the first questions I asked Washington in March 2007 in Surprise, Ariz., when he was a new major league manager, was whether he would run his bullpen based on lefty-righty matchups. He was adamant that he wouldn't just go by that book. So in Friday night's game, after lefty Oliver failed, Wash went to righty Darren O'Day against one right-handed batter -- for one pitch. Then it was Rapada for one lefty batter -- for one pitch. Derek Holland finally came in and got out of that awful half-inning. So much for not going by the book.

The manager did get through a soft portion of Texas' rotation (C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis are pretty much 6- or 7-inning starters) with the bullpen in much better shape than the Yankees'. That effect will be lessened somewhat with a day off. But if Cliff Lee can go eight or nine innings deep, and the Rangers can get Andy Pettitte, whose complete games are rare these days, that bullpen edge can grow in the Rangers' favor again. That edge could stay even though neither Game 4 starter, Tommy Hunter or the Yankees' A.J. Burnett, could be expected to go more than six or seven innings.

However, Washington could fritter away that advantage by going too much left-right-left or misusing Feliz.

There are problems inherent with facing the Yankees. The lineup is so deep top to bottom, and so capable of waiting out pitchers, that it puts extreme pressure on opponents. For example, in the current series, the longer it goes, the more pitches Texas throws and the more opportunities that there are up and down the lineup, the more likely it is that Mark Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez would break out of their slumps.

I still like the Rangers in six. If the series goes to seven games, I'm just afraid that ticking time bomb would work in New York's favor.

Another somewhat related thought: The first two games, especially the eighth inning for Game 1, were interminable. One way to cut down the excessive time of American League games would be to ditch the designated hitter. It's not needed for either of the reasons cited when it arrived in 1973 (declining offense and a place for star players to make a transition into the retirement). Having a pitcher around to make more frequent, but not automatic, outs wouldn't hurt. Those same pitchers could have a breather against their counterparts that they could allow them to throw fewer pitches and be fresher for the batters who really could hurt them.

Just a thought. A darn good one at that.