The defensive All-Stars

The All-Star ballot I outlined in an earlier post took only batting into account.

I didn’t project a better-rounded team because there aren’t established metrics that everyone can agree on for fielding or baserunning.

Fielding has Range Factor, a fairly simple metric that tells part of the story. By merely dividing total chances by games (or 9 innings), you can get a measure of how much ground a player covers. That way you can differentiate a player who can get to a lot of batted balls from another who makes plays on balls hit close to him.

What it can’t tell you is whether a player’s Range Factor is higher because he has more balls hit in his direction than other players at his position. For example, if he’s a third baseman on a team with three or four left-handed starting pitchers and a large number of ground-ball pitchers.

Other people will tell you about DWAR, Defensive Wins Above Replacement, even after your eyes glaze over from boredom and an aversion to math.

First basemen and catchers don’t have measurable range. For 1Bs, I’m using DWAR. Catchers do have a viable measure, catcher’s ERA, in addition to DWAR.

By combining the available metrics, I came up with this list of defensive All-Stars that I voted for on a ballot in addition to my "true" offensive All-Stars:

American League

C Salvador Perez, Royals

1B Mike Napoli, Red Sox

2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox

3B Josh Donaldson, Athletics

SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

LF Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics

CF Leonys Martin, Rangers

RF Nick Markakis, Orioles

National League

C Yadier Molina, Cardinals

1B Matt Adams, Cardinals

2B Brandon Phillips, Reds

3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants

SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

LF Khris Davis, Brewers

CF Marcell Ozuna, Marlins

RF Jason Heyward, Braves

Three players are on both my offensive and defensive All-Star teams. I don't think you could come up with a good reason not to vote for Donaldson, Ramirez and Tulowitzki. OK, you're going to tell me Donaldson has more errors than anyone west of Pedro Alvarez, but at the time I checked the defensive metrics, Donaldson led major league third basemen in DWAR and the AL third sackers in Range Factor.

Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado and Athletics RF Josh Reddick would have been on my defensive ballot, but they're injured.

There were some ties. 

With only one metric, DWAR, at first base -- and precious little positive value, with just four 1B above 0.0 when I checked the numbers, there was little choice. Napoli tied with Kansas City's Eric Hosmer and Adams with San Diego's Yonder Alonso. I broke the tie the way Gold Glove voters seem to, by which is the better offensive player. In hindsight, I should have gone with Hosmer in the AL. He is a truly gifted defender. Don't talk to me about the Diamondbacks' Paul Goldschmidt. I haven't seen him in person very much, but when I have he has struck me as a good hitter but not a good fielder. At the time I looked at DWARs, Goldschmidt was at -0.5, or a greater negative value than any first baseman's positive value.

Speaking of defense, I just noticed that I made an error at second base in the NL. The Rockies' D.J. LeMahieu ranked ahead of Phillips in both RF and DWAR.

For the NL catcher, Molina and the Giants' Buster Posey had the same combined ranking. As a tiebreaker, I used DWAR, where Molina ranked higher, ahead of CERA, where Posey led the league.

Similarly, Ozuna's superior DWAR broke a tie with the Cardinals' Peter Bourjos and Heyward's major league-best DWAR in right field put him ahead of Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton. By the way, lost among some pretty good offensive statistics, Miami has probably the majors' best outfield defense. LF Christian Yelich also ranked second in the NL in the combined metrics.

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I also looked for individual base-running metrics that could help in establishing a list of well rounded All-Stars, but there didn't seem to be enough evidence (call it small sample size) to make an educated guess about one player over another. Baseball Prospectus' base-running metric (positive and negative runs) includes five different types of runs -- Ground Advancement, Stolen Base, Air Advancement, Hit Advancement and Other Advancement.

There could be some merit in the larger sampling of team base-running runs. At the time I researched this post, the Royals led the majors with almost 10 runs, 50% more than the runner-up Mariners. The Cubs led the NL. By far, the worst teams were the Red Sox and Athletics, with the old and infirm Phillies last in the National League. 

KC's base-running prowess could be a reason why the Royals stayed in contention despite some atrocious hitting. Base-running appeared to be just another problem for Boston, another aging team with injury issues. I was surprised to see the Rangers among the AL base-running leaders, because even during their recent contending days they have made miserable mistakes on the bases. Texas was slightly above 0. I'm guessing the positive ranking could have been built on Stolen Base Runs -- with a trio of base stealers in Martin, Elvis Andrus and Alex Rios. 

There didn't appear to be much correlation between good base-running teams and teams high in the standings. Four teams currently in playoff position ranked in the top third in base-running, but three "playoff teams" ranked in the bottom third.

Meetings could also be a pre-climax

This year's winter meetings were indeed an anti-climax after a flurry of player moves during the week that preceded them. The meeting might also be a pre-climax to the few free-agent signings (headlined by Shin-soo Choo and Grant Balfour) and possible trades (David Price?) still to come.
The meetings came and went quickly -- I guess unless you went there and spent a lot of time hanging around the hotel lobby.
The moves, mostly minor, over the last couple of days:
-- Red Sox. Finalized their 2-year, $32-million resigning of 1B Mike Napoli. To make room on the 40-man roster, Boston designated OF Alex Castellanos for assignment.
-- Giants. Probably overpaid $5 million for 1 year of OF/1B Mike Morse, who's likely to become their left fielder.
-- Phillies. Signed RHP Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona and drafted RHP Kevin Munson from the Diamondbacks.
-- Tigers. Signed free-agent RHP Joba Chamberlain to a 1-year, $2.5-million contract. I know Detroit's bullpen has been terrible, but what has Chamberlain to show he's any better and justify a $2.5M price tag.
-- Marlins. Traded OF Justin Ruggiano to the Cubs for OF Brian Bogusevic. I actually like this move for Miami. I saw Bogusevic make the conversion from pitching, and believe he has more upside than Ruggiano, who may have just had the best season he ever will have. The Marlins also trolled the low-cost waters by taking shots at four players in the Rule 5 minor league draft.
-- Astros. Traded the first pick in the major league Rule 5 draft, LHP Patrick Schuster, to the Padres to complete the deal that sent RHP Anthony Bass to Houston Wednesday. Not really a big deal on either side. Schuster, who pitched four consecutive no-hitters in high school in 2009, had a 1.83 ERA as a reliever for the Diamondbacks' affiliate in the high Class A California League last season. But he doesn't throw hard, and that's still a long way from the majors.
-- Angels. Acquired LHP Brian Moran, a nephew of ex-major leaguer B.J. Surhoff, whom the Blue Jays had drafted from the Mariners organization, for $244,000 of international-player bonus money. Moran has Triple-A experience. That and left-handedness could earn him at least a few sips of coffee in the majors.
-- Blue Jays. They also were pretty busy in Thursday's minor league draft. One of the players they took was LHP Richard "Big Dick" Bleier from the Rangers organization.
-- Dodgers. Acquired another major league draft pick, RHP Seth Rosin, by sending cash to the Mets. Rosin was throwing low-90s fastballs in Double-A this year.
-- White Sox. Drafted and kept C Adrian Nieto from the Nationals organization. He batted .285 with 11 homers and threw out 33 per cent of base stealers in the high A Carolina League. It might be difficult for Chicago to keep Nieto on its roster for 2014, and also to send him to the minors without someone else claiming him.
-- Rockies. Drafted RHP Tommy Kahnle from the Yankees. He threw in the mid-90s, but without much control, in Double-A. Colorado needs pitching, so it wouldn't be a stretch to think Kahnle could be in its bullpen in '14.
-- Brewers. Drafted LHP Wei-Chung Wang from the Pirates. The Taiwanese pitcher was in the Rookie Class Gulf Coast League this year after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
-- Diamondbacks. In addition to losing a couple of players in the major league Rule 5 draft, Arizona claimed RHP Marcos Mateo, a former major leaguer, from the Cubs organization.
-- Orioles. Drafted 3B Michael Almanzar, the son of former major league pitcher Carlos Almanzar, from the Red Sox. Michael hit 16 homers in Double-A this year, but needs to refine his swing, selectiveness and defense. Baltimore also obtained C David Freitas from the Athletics organization as the final return for RHP Jim Johnson.
-- Braves. Avoided arbitration by resigning RHP Jordan Walden for 1 year and $1.49 million.
-- Pirates. Resigned SS Clint Barmes for 2014 for what ESPN reported as $2 million. Pittsburgh has not confirmed a reported agreement with free-agent RHP Edinson Volquez for a year and $5 million. That's despite his 5.71 ERA last season. Perhaps the Pirates think he could benefit, as their 2013 starters did, from their advanced metrics that led to successful placement of fielders. If nothing else, Volquez is cheaper than resigning RHP A.J. Burnett. Perhaps the Bucs could use some of the difference toward a contract with free-agent 1B James Loney, which could run to $30 million for 3 years. Or they could trade for a less-expensive 1B such as Seattle's Justin Smoak.

* * *

Overall, Thursday was a good night for my fantasy teams.
Football. In my scoring-plus-yardage league playoffs, I picked up a sub-standard 17 points from Peyton Manning, plus 14 for Keenan Allen and 3 for Danny Woodhead to take a 141-87 lead into the weekend. I'll have six more players in action; my opponent will have seven. In my scoring-only league, Allen's two TDs gave me a 12-6 lead over my opponent, whose points came from Manning's TD passes. Better yet, I still have six players to go; he has just four.
Hockey. A rare good night in plus/minus helped me gain 3 points. The second-place team lost 2 points, so I cut the gap to 7 1/2 points.
Basketball. I'm still leading 7-1, trailing only in 3-pointers. To that end, I picked up the Suns' Gerald Green to replace the next-to-worthless J.R. Smith.

Napoli getting higher salary than Beltran or Granderson

Lots going on, but this will be short-form because I don't have much time. Have to chip the ice off the car and hope I can make it to see the Stars and Flyers (featuring goalie Steve Mason) on the ice.
The biggest new news is the reported 3-year, $45-million contract between the Yankees and OF Carlos Beltran. Looks as if another aging outfielder, Ichiro Suzuki, could be looking for a new employer.
For an even bigger average annual salary, 1B Mike Napoli reportedly will be back with the Red Sox for 2 years and $32 million.
OF Curtis Granderson's new 4-year contract with the Mets is being reported at $60 million, also 15 per year.
In a minor Yankees move, they signed IF/OF/DH Kelly Johnson to a 1-year contract.
RHP Scott Feldman appears to be the Astros' ace by default, with a 3-year, $30-million contract. It will be nice to see him in Arlington more frequently, and not just because the Rangers might light him up.
Speaking of the Rangers, they reportedly are close to signing C J.P. Arencibia. Some home runs, but is Texas any better off with him than they could have been by re-signing much older C A.J. Pierzynski?
Another question: Will the Rangers re-sign OF Nelson Cruz, go for free-agent OF Shin-soo Choo or plan on unproven OF Michael Choice in left field this season. I'd expect anything short of Cruz or Choo (or possibly just Choo) to be considered in the Metroplex as another wasted off-season.
The position-player free-agent list beyond Choo and Cruz is very thin, and the list of available pitchers isn't a lot better: RHPs A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo and the tarnished star of Matt Garza.
Another report has OF Nate McLouth moving a bit south to play for the Nationals for 2 years at $10.75 million.
The Marlins continue to make near-the-back-page news. Their new acquisition reportedly is 1B/OF Garrett Jones for 2 years. They're losing RHP Ryan Webb to the Orioles for 2 years and $4.5 million. I know! I had to look to see what more than $2 million a year can buy for your bullpen. Well, Webb was 2-6 with a 2.91 ERA with 3 blown saves this year. That extended his save-less streak in the majors to five seasons, during which he was mostly hidden from view by the Padres and Marlins. He did have 3 saves in a minor league career that included a 5.06 ERA.

* * *

Hockey/basketball. Not a lot to report. My hockey team picked up half a point in ATOI, but fell six games behind the second-place team. My replacement for Jason Spezza is Tampa Bay's Valtteri Filppula. He's in today's lineup as the utility player. It's still 5-3 in my basketball-league series with 2 days remaining this week. I have the best chance to pick up a game in 3-point FGs or possibly FG percentage.

Napoli could take a step forward

Rain wiped out eight games scheduled in Florida, including LHP Andy Pettitte’s scheduled 2010 debut for the Yankees.
Teams are at the point where they don’t even make a pretense of trying to get a decision in games. The two ties both ended after nine innings: the Angels and Indians 7-7 and the Royals and Mariners 6-6. In the LA/Anaheim-Cleveland game, Angels C Mike Napoli hit his fourth homer this spring. We considered Napoli for last year’s Derrek Lee Award, and we still feel he could do some breaking out. When Kansas City and Seattle played, Royals 1B prospect Kila Ka’aihue hit his second HR.
In the Rangers’ 6-2 victory over the Padres, Texas 1B Chris Davis followed Thursday’s 4-for-4 effort with three hits. Slimmed-down LHP Matt Harrison pitched three scoreless innings. RHP prospect Tanner Scheppers – who has been the talk of the back fields in Surprise, Ariz. – didn’t allow a run in his inning for the Rangers even though he gave up three hits.
The Cubs and White Sox met on neutral ground in Las Vegas, with the Cubs winning 6-5. Danger: Will Robinson! With an umpire named Will Robinson behind the plate, each team’s pitchers walked seven batters. Looking for speed? Cubs SS Ryan Theriot stole two bases, giving him four this spring. He stole one each against rookie Cs Tyler Flowers and Donny Lucy.
Another group of White Sox defeated an Angels split squad 10-7. Chicago supported RHP Jake Peavy’s three scoreless innings of pitching by taking a 7-0 lead against LA/Anaheim LHP Joe Saunders and RHP Travis Chick. The bad news for the Sox was that RHP Bobby Jenks didn’t get through the fourth inning, giving up five runs.
The Reds defeated a Dodgers split squad 3-2. Rookie Jordan Smith saved the game by retiring SS Argenis Reyes after LA had scored two runs and had another runner on base in the bottom of the ninth. The starting pitchers, Cincinnati RHP Bronson Arroyo and Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw each allowed two hits in three scoreless innings. A warning sign for Cincy was 1B Joey Votto’s 0-for-5 game, leaving five runners on base, dropping his average to .067.
A team of ersatz Dodgers lost its first exhibition game in China, 5-2 to the CPBL All-Stars.
Sample Scouting Report:
Mike Napoli, C, Angels
{2010} There isn’t much doubt about Napoli’s power and overall offensive ability, which put him almost into an elite status among fantasy catchers. And that’s the rub. He’s not a very good defensive catcher, and LA/Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia was a standout backstop and is an exacting mentor. That means that Napoli loses playing time to C Jeff Mathis, a better defender. The hope for fantasy owners is that Napoli would hit well enough to stay in the lineup as the DH when he isn’t catching. Born Oct. 31, 1981, Hollywood, Fla. 2009: 382 AB, .272 BA, 20 HR, 56 RBI, 3 SB, 60 R.
Projection
AB: 367 BA: .267 HR: 22 RBI: 62 SB: 5 R: 59 Value: $8