The baseball world is abuzz with information about the Rangers' signing of OF Shin-soo Choo.
One report even said that his signing puts Texas on top of the American League.
And if he can play close to the way he did this year in the National League, Choo could be enough to make the Rangers favorites. Definitely a playoff team, if their pitching holds up.
I don't look at the benefit of this signing so much as having Choo replace A) David Murphy, B) Nelson Cruz, C) Craig Gentry, D) Jeff Baker, E) Engel Beltre, F) All of the above in the outfield as having him replace Ian Kinsler at the top of the lineup.
Now Kinsler wasn't the worst leadoff man in the majors. His 2013 on-base percentage was .344 -- not All-Star territory, but above a replacement player.
Don't take this as thinking I don't like what Kinsler can bring to a team -- I've already endorsed Texas' acquiring 1B Prince Fielder in trade for Kinsler -- but it seems reasonable that in Fielder and Choo, the Rangers are better off than if they'd kept Kinsler and Cruz.
Choo's on-base percentage for Cincinnati this year was .423. That's 80 percentage points above Kinsler's, or over 600 plate appearances an additional 48 times on base. About once every three games. And it's not unreasonable to think that those times on base could translate to 10 or even 20 more runs. In fact, in 98 more plate appearances than Kinsler, Choo scored 22 more runs. We can give Kinsler a bit of a pass because of all the games he had the ineffective Murphy batting after him, while Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were coming up for the Reds.
Beyond the on-base percentage -- and isn't there a beyond with just about every baseball statistic? -- Choo has it all over Kinsler.
Sure, Choo struck out more often: 133 times to 59. In part, that was because Kinsler didn't wait around for three strikes. He drew 51 walks -- a good, near 1:1 ratio -- but Choo took a whopping 112 free passes.
Of course, those walks showed up in the on-base percentage. But even deeper, we can go to a stat listed as GO/AO, ground outs/air outs. It might be because I saw Kinsler play so often, but I can't imagine a player who would pop up more often.
His GO/AO was 0.72. Is that good or bad? you might ask. Of 140 players who qualified for major league batting titles last season, Kinsler was 135th. Choo was 23rd at 1.50, so he was putting the ball on the ground for outs more than twice as often as Kinsler.
Another way to look at it. Kinsler (and Choo) made 400-some outs in 2013. That's roughly 267 outs in the air, which can be at-bats as empty as strikeouts, compared to 133 or so for Choo. But what about sacrifice flies? Fly balls can be valuable. Possibly, but Kinsler had seven sacrifice flies, compared to two by Choo. That still leaves something like 129 more unproductive outs by Kinsler.
Now you're saying, "But ground balls can be unproductive too." True. They also can move runners from first to second, from second to third and even third to home more easily. There is no sacrifice ground out stat to give batters credit for driving in a run, so we don't really know who does that more often. A ground ball is also more likely to result in an error than a ball in the air.
The trump card for ground ball haters in the double play. Certainly, those GO/AO leaders wipe out teammates in doubly damaging double plays more often. True, among the top 10 in GO/AO were three players with 20 or more GIDP: David Freese, Billy Butler and Michael Young. Choo, on the other hand, grounded into just two DPs, and Kinsler seven.
It should be clear then that Choo himself reached base more frequently and most likely did a better job moving his teammates around the bases as well.
So why is this even an issue? Choo will be the greatest thing that ever happened to the Rangers. Where is the downside?
One possible downside is moving back to the American League. This year was Choo's only season in the NL. He had a good lineup with the Reds. Even the improved 2014 lineup in Texas isn't likely to be as good. And check out his K/W (strikeout/walk) ratio in '12, his last as an American League. He struck out 150 times, and walked 73. The 150 Ks aren't even his career high. So it's reasonable to expect some regression in AL parks with AL pitchers.
The improvement in his batting eye is an example of what are described as old-man skills. Another is an increase in the frequency of extra-base hits, and indeed in the last two seasons, Choo has had a little over 10% more doubles than in his first two years in the majors. A third is a logical decline in base stealing.
But, hey! Choo has had just five full seasons in the majors, so he can improve. He's what? 27? 28? Try 31. The records show that he's just 31 days younger than Kinsler. But my policy is to add a year to the age of every player with a birth certificate from a foreign country. It's just as likely that Choo is 11 months older.
Thus, it's no surprise that he is exhibiting old-man skills. His 20 stolen bases this year were within 10% of his best full season, but his 11 times caught stealing were four more than in any other season. That's why I'm not expecting 20 this year. By the way, Kinsler's base-stealing rate declined from 30-for-34 in 2011, to 21-for-30 last season and 15-for-26 this year.
Another of my rules of thumb is that I consider the age-31 season as a plateau, before a player's decline really kicks in but not necessary a drop from the level he established during ages 27-30.
That's the real rub in signing Choo for seven years and $130 million.
In 2014, he can be very close to the player he was this year. A 5% decline, or maybe even 10%, would be better than what Texas got from Kinsler in 2013.
Similarly, 2015 might not be much worse.
But with five more years with an average of $18 million-$19 million, how can he bring the return on investment a major league team would like? Seems unlikely.
Another limiting factor is the eyeball test. Choo has never been a Slim Jim, but he looked pudgier this year than before. Will his conditioning improve now that he'll be set for life?
That conditioning could be an issue within a few years. Fielder is two years younger, but his days as a full-time DH seem closer than Choo's. And if Choo becomes too immobile to play in the outfield, how would he DH? The Rangers would have to pay a bunch of money to help pay his contract as a DH somewhere else if he is traded.
Perhaps all Texas' management wants is a better path to winning its first World Series. Choo could help deliver that. But by the time his contract ends and he's 38 (or 39), that championship would be a distant memory. It won't help that Adrian Beltre, Geovany Soto, probably Fielder and possibly Yu Darvish would also be long gone by then. Which again is why the Rangers are making these moves NOW.
Good short-term move, but far too long a contract for an aging player.
That's what I said about the Mariners and the Robinson Cano signing, except that I can't envision how Seattle was only one player away from winning in '14.
* * *
Expending these words and the time to research the information led to a couple of side issues.
1. Another benefit too the Choo signing is that it increases the likelihood that the Rangers could trade Engel Beltre while he still has some value and before he's overexposed. I think his defense is overrated, he won't hit lefties and he still has a lot of growing up to do before he could be considered a reliable player and teammate. A team needing speed and outfield defense, distracted by some empty batting averages on Beltre's resume, could cough up a helpful reliever or even a potential bottom-of-the-rotation starter in return.
2. My analysis of the Cano and Choo signings points out that Seattle and Texas don't seem overly concerned about outfield defense down the road, but willing to entrust it to players with declining mobility.
Perhaps it's a coincidence, but I noticed that the last seven players on the 2013 GO/AO list were from AL West teams: Houston's Chris Carter, Kinsler, Seattle's Justin Smoak and Kurt Seager, and Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes, Jed Lowrie and Brandon Moss. Perhaps the NL West didn't get the memo saying that baseball was moving away from sluggers toward pitching and defense. Or perhaps the Angels took the memos out of the other teams' mailboxes. Or, given the fact that the Athletics -- a well managed team attuned to sabremetrics and making very few mistakes these days -- put three of those seven players in important offensive roles, once again they may know more than we (I) do.
I also like Seager. You probably still can hear reverberations from his line drives at Rangers Ballpark.
Showing posts with label Shin-soo Choo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shin-soo Choo. Show all posts
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Friday, December 13, 2013
Meetings could also be a pre-climax
This year's winter meetings were indeed an anti-climax after a flurry of player moves during the week that preceded them. The meeting might also be a pre-climax to the few free-agent signings (headlined by Shin-soo Choo and Grant Balfour) and possible trades (David Price?) still to come.
The meetings came and went quickly -- I guess unless you went there and spent a lot of time hanging around the hotel lobby.
The moves, mostly minor, over the last couple of days:
-- Red Sox. Finalized their 2-year, $32-million resigning of 1B Mike Napoli. To make room on the 40-man roster, Boston designated OF Alex Castellanos for assignment.
-- Giants. Probably overpaid $5 million for 1 year of OF/1B Mike Morse, who's likely to become their left fielder.
-- Phillies. Signed RHP Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona and drafted RHP Kevin Munson from the Diamondbacks.
-- Tigers. Signed free-agent RHP Joba Chamberlain to a 1-year, $2.5-million contract. I know Detroit's bullpen has been terrible, but what has Chamberlain to show he's any better and justify a $2.5M price tag.
-- Marlins. Traded OF Justin Ruggiano to the Cubs for OF Brian Bogusevic. I actually like this move for Miami. I saw Bogusevic make the conversion from pitching, and believe he has more upside than Ruggiano, who may have just had the best season he ever will have. The Marlins also trolled the low-cost waters by taking shots at four players in the Rule 5 minor league draft.
-- Astros. Traded the first pick in the major league Rule 5 draft, LHP Patrick Schuster, to the Padres to complete the deal that sent RHP Anthony Bass to Houston Wednesday. Not really a big deal on either side. Schuster, who pitched four consecutive no-hitters in high school in 2009, had a 1.83 ERA as a reliever for the Diamondbacks' affiliate in the high Class A California League last season. But he doesn't throw hard, and that's still a long way from the majors.
-- Angels. Acquired LHP Brian Moran, a nephew of ex-major leaguer B.J. Surhoff, whom the Blue Jays had drafted from the Mariners organization, for $244,000 of international-player bonus money. Moran has Triple-A experience. That and left-handedness could earn him at least a few sips of coffee in the majors.
-- Blue Jays. They also were pretty busy in Thursday's minor league draft. One of the players they took was LHP Richard "Big Dick" Bleier from the Rangers organization.
-- Dodgers. Acquired another major league draft pick, RHP Seth Rosin, by sending cash to the Mets. Rosin was throwing low-90s fastballs in Double-A this year.
-- White Sox. Drafted and kept C Adrian Nieto from the Nationals organization. He batted .285 with 11 homers and threw out 33 per cent of base stealers in the high A Carolina League. It might be difficult for Chicago to keep Nieto on its roster for 2014, and also to send him to the minors without someone else claiming him.
-- Rockies. Drafted RHP Tommy Kahnle from the Yankees. He threw in the mid-90s, but without much control, in Double-A. Colorado needs pitching, so it wouldn't be a stretch to think Kahnle could be in its bullpen in '14.
-- Brewers. Drafted LHP Wei-Chung Wang from the Pirates. The Taiwanese pitcher was in the Rookie Class Gulf Coast League this year after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
-- Diamondbacks. In addition to losing a couple of players in the major league Rule 5 draft, Arizona claimed RHP Marcos Mateo, a former major leaguer, from the Cubs organization.
-- Orioles. Drafted 3B Michael Almanzar, the son of former major league pitcher Carlos Almanzar, from the Red Sox. Michael hit 16 homers in Double-A this year, but needs to refine his swing, selectiveness and defense. Baltimore also obtained C David Freitas from the Athletics organization as the final return for RHP Jim Johnson.
-- Braves. Avoided arbitration by resigning RHP Jordan Walden for 1 year and $1.49 million.
-- Pirates. Resigned SS Clint Barmes for 2014 for what ESPN reported as $2 million. Pittsburgh has not confirmed a reported agreement with free-agent RHP Edinson Volquez for a year and $5 million. That's despite his 5.71 ERA last season. Perhaps the Pirates think he could benefit, as their 2013 starters did, from their advanced metrics that led to successful placement of fielders. If nothing else, Volquez is cheaper than resigning RHP A.J. Burnett. Perhaps the Bucs could use some of the difference toward a contract with free-agent 1B James Loney, which could run to $30 million for 3 years. Or they could trade for a less-expensive 1B such as Seattle's Justin Smoak.
* * *
Overall, Thursday was a good night for my fantasy teams.
Football. In my scoring-plus-yardage league playoffs, I picked up a sub-standard 17 points from Peyton Manning, plus 14 for Keenan Allen and 3 for Danny Woodhead to take a 141-87 lead into the weekend. I'll have six more players in action; my opponent will have seven. In my scoring-only league, Allen's two TDs gave me a 12-6 lead over my opponent, whose points came from Manning's TD passes. Better yet, I still have six players to go; he has just four.
Hockey. A rare good night in plus/minus helped me gain 3 points. The second-place team lost 2 points, so I cut the gap to 7 1/2 points.
Basketball. I'm still leading 7-1, trailing only in 3-pointers. To that end, I picked up the Suns' Gerald Green to replace the next-to-worthless J.R. Smith.
The meetings came and went quickly -- I guess unless you went there and spent a lot of time hanging around the hotel lobby.
The moves, mostly minor, over the last couple of days:
-- Red Sox. Finalized their 2-year, $32-million resigning of 1B Mike Napoli. To make room on the 40-man roster, Boston designated OF Alex Castellanos for assignment.
-- Giants. Probably overpaid $5 million for 1 year of OF/1B Mike Morse, who's likely to become their left fielder.
-- Phillies. Signed RHP Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona and drafted RHP Kevin Munson from the Diamondbacks.
-- Tigers. Signed free-agent RHP Joba Chamberlain to a 1-year, $2.5-million contract. I know Detroit's bullpen has been terrible, but what has Chamberlain to show he's any better and justify a $2.5M price tag.
-- Marlins. Traded OF Justin Ruggiano to the Cubs for OF Brian Bogusevic. I actually like this move for Miami. I saw Bogusevic make the conversion from pitching, and believe he has more upside than Ruggiano, who may have just had the best season he ever will have. The Marlins also trolled the low-cost waters by taking shots at four players in the Rule 5 minor league draft.
-- Astros. Traded the first pick in the major league Rule 5 draft, LHP Patrick Schuster, to the Padres to complete the deal that sent RHP Anthony Bass to Houston Wednesday. Not really a big deal on either side. Schuster, who pitched four consecutive no-hitters in high school in 2009, had a 1.83 ERA as a reliever for the Diamondbacks' affiliate in the high Class A California League last season. But he doesn't throw hard, and that's still a long way from the majors.
-- Angels. Acquired LHP Brian Moran, a nephew of ex-major leaguer B.J. Surhoff, whom the Blue Jays had drafted from the Mariners organization, for $244,000 of international-player bonus money. Moran has Triple-A experience. That and left-handedness could earn him at least a few sips of coffee in the majors.
-- Blue Jays. They also were pretty busy in Thursday's minor league draft. One of the players they took was LHP Richard "Big Dick" Bleier from the Rangers organization.
-- Dodgers. Acquired another major league draft pick, RHP Seth Rosin, by sending cash to the Mets. Rosin was throwing low-90s fastballs in Double-A this year.
-- White Sox. Drafted and kept C Adrian Nieto from the Nationals organization. He batted .285 with 11 homers and threw out 33 per cent of base stealers in the high A Carolina League. It might be difficult for Chicago to keep Nieto on its roster for 2014, and also to send him to the minors without someone else claiming him.
-- Rockies. Drafted RHP Tommy Kahnle from the Yankees. He threw in the mid-90s, but without much control, in Double-A. Colorado needs pitching, so it wouldn't be a stretch to think Kahnle could be in its bullpen in '14.
-- Brewers. Drafted LHP Wei-Chung Wang from the Pirates. The Taiwanese pitcher was in the Rookie Class Gulf Coast League this year after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
-- Diamondbacks. In addition to losing a couple of players in the major league Rule 5 draft, Arizona claimed RHP Marcos Mateo, a former major leaguer, from the Cubs organization.
-- Orioles. Drafted 3B Michael Almanzar, the son of former major league pitcher Carlos Almanzar, from the Red Sox. Michael hit 16 homers in Double-A this year, but needs to refine his swing, selectiveness and defense. Baltimore also obtained C David Freitas from the Athletics organization as the final return for RHP Jim Johnson.
-- Braves. Avoided arbitration by resigning RHP Jordan Walden for 1 year and $1.49 million.
-- Pirates. Resigned SS Clint Barmes for 2014 for what ESPN reported as $2 million. Pittsburgh has not confirmed a reported agreement with free-agent RHP Edinson Volquez for a year and $5 million. That's despite his 5.71 ERA last season. Perhaps the Pirates think he could benefit, as their 2013 starters did, from their advanced metrics that led to successful placement of fielders. If nothing else, Volquez is cheaper than resigning RHP A.J. Burnett. Perhaps the Bucs could use some of the difference toward a contract with free-agent 1B James Loney, which could run to $30 million for 3 years. Or they could trade for a less-expensive 1B such as Seattle's Justin Smoak.
* * *
Overall, Thursday was a good night for my fantasy teams.
Football. In my scoring-plus-yardage league playoffs, I picked up a sub-standard 17 points from Peyton Manning, plus 14 for Keenan Allen and 3 for Danny Woodhead to take a 141-87 lead into the weekend. I'll have six more players in action; my opponent will have seven. In my scoring-only league, Allen's two TDs gave me a 12-6 lead over my opponent, whose points came from Manning's TD passes. Better yet, I still have six players to go; he has just four.
Hockey. A rare good night in plus/minus helped me gain 3 points. The second-place team lost 2 points, so I cut the gap to 7 1/2 points.
Basketball. I'm still leading 7-1, trailing only in 3-pointers. To that end, I picked up the Suns' Gerald Green to replace the next-to-worthless J.R. Smith.
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Napoli getting higher salary than Beltran or Granderson
Lots going on, but this will be short-form because I don't have much time. Have to chip the ice off the car and hope I can make it to see the Stars and Flyers (featuring goalie Steve Mason) on the ice.
The biggest new news is the reported 3-year, $45-million contract between the Yankees and OF Carlos Beltran. Looks as if another aging outfielder, Ichiro Suzuki, could be looking for a new employer.
For an even bigger average annual salary, 1B Mike Napoli reportedly will be back with the Red Sox for 2 years and $32 million.
OF Curtis Granderson's new 4-year contract with the Mets is being reported at $60 million, also 15 per year.
In a minor Yankees move, they signed IF/OF/DH Kelly Johnson to a 1-year contract.
RHP Scott Feldman appears to be the Astros' ace by default, with a 3-year, $30-million contract. It will be nice to see him in Arlington more frequently, and not just because the Rangers might light him up.
Speaking of the Rangers, they reportedly are close to signing C J.P. Arencibia. Some home runs, but is Texas any better off with him than they could have been by re-signing much older C A.J. Pierzynski?
Another question: Will the Rangers re-sign OF Nelson Cruz, go for free-agent OF Shin-soo Choo or plan on unproven OF Michael Choice in left field this season. I'd expect anything short of Cruz or Choo (or possibly just Choo) to be considered in the Metroplex as another wasted off-season.
The position-player free-agent list beyond Choo and Cruz is very thin, and the list of available pitchers isn't a lot better: RHPs A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo and the tarnished star of Matt Garza.
Another report has OF Nate McLouth moving a bit south to play for the Nationals for 2 years at $10.75 million.
The Marlins continue to make near-the-back-page news. Their new acquisition reportedly is 1B/OF Garrett Jones for 2 years. They're losing RHP Ryan Webb to the Orioles for 2 years and $4.5 million. I know! I had to look to see what more than $2 million a year can buy for your bullpen. Well, Webb was 2-6 with a 2.91 ERA with 3 blown saves this year. That extended his save-less streak in the majors to five seasons, during which he was mostly hidden from view by the Padres and Marlins. He did have 3 saves in a minor league career that included a 5.06 ERA.
* * *
Hockey/basketball. Not a lot to report. My hockey team picked up half a point in ATOI, but fell six games behind the second-place team. My replacement for Jason Spezza is Tampa Bay's Valtteri Filppula. He's in today's lineup as the utility player. It's still 5-3 in my basketball-league series with 2 days remaining this week. I have the best chance to pick up a game in 3-point FGs or possibly FG percentage.
The biggest new news is the reported 3-year, $45-million contract between the Yankees and OF Carlos Beltran. Looks as if another aging outfielder, Ichiro Suzuki, could be looking for a new employer.
For an even bigger average annual salary, 1B Mike Napoli reportedly will be back with the Red Sox for 2 years and $32 million.
OF Curtis Granderson's new 4-year contract with the Mets is being reported at $60 million, also 15 per year.
In a minor Yankees move, they signed IF/OF/DH Kelly Johnson to a 1-year contract.
RHP Scott Feldman appears to be the Astros' ace by default, with a 3-year, $30-million contract. It will be nice to see him in Arlington more frequently, and not just because the Rangers might light him up.
Speaking of the Rangers, they reportedly are close to signing C J.P. Arencibia. Some home runs, but is Texas any better off with him than they could have been by re-signing much older C A.J. Pierzynski?
Another question: Will the Rangers re-sign OF Nelson Cruz, go for free-agent OF Shin-soo Choo or plan on unproven OF Michael Choice in left field this season. I'd expect anything short of Cruz or Choo (or possibly just Choo) to be considered in the Metroplex as another wasted off-season.
The position-player free-agent list beyond Choo and Cruz is very thin, and the list of available pitchers isn't a lot better: RHPs A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo and the tarnished star of Matt Garza.
Another report has OF Nate McLouth moving a bit south to play for the Nationals for 2 years at $10.75 million.
The Marlins continue to make near-the-back-page news. Their new acquisition reportedly is 1B/OF Garrett Jones for 2 years. They're losing RHP Ryan Webb to the Orioles for 2 years and $4.5 million. I know! I had to look to see what more than $2 million a year can buy for your bullpen. Well, Webb was 2-6 with a 2.91 ERA with 3 blown saves this year. That extended his save-less streak in the majors to five seasons, during which he was mostly hidden from view by the Padres and Marlins. He did have 3 saves in a minor league career that included a 5.06 ERA.
* * *
Hockey/basketball. Not a lot to report. My hockey team picked up half a point in ATOI, but fell six games behind the second-place team. My replacement for Jason Spezza is Tampa Bay's Valtteri Filppula. He's in today's lineup as the utility player. It's still 5-3 in my basketball-league series with 2 days remaining this week. I have the best chance to pick up a game in 3-point FGs or possibly FG percentage.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Fantasy Baseball Scout honors
First, an apology.
I had hoped that we’d be able to provide as much information this spring as we have in years past while rebuilding the web site and operating as a free site.
We have given you some pretty good information, but not with the volume or consistency we would have liked. In the absence of revenue from fantasybaseballscout.com, I have had to seek other sources of income. Those other jobs, family and other day-to-day concerns have taken a lot of time away from Emailing and blogging.
This Email will inform you briefly about some of the annual awards and other information we give you concerning sleepers, minor league pitchers and such.
We have had a number of requests from people trying to subscribe to our site. We have had to decline politely their requests to pay us, thanking them for their continued interest.
With the season coming up, we can offer a couple of services to former subscribers and other interested people – for modest fees.
We would offer those based on the amount of interest expressed. You should be able to understand that if we offer a service for $20 or $25 for the season, it would make a lot more sense if a thousand or even a hundred people signed up than if he had 5 or 10 subscribers.
Possible services would be
1) In-season Emails, five or more times a week. These would be the same as we have offered in the past: pitching charts on Saturdays, Weekend Update/Hot and Not on Mondays, minor league updates Tuesdays, injury updates Wednesdays and News and Notes Thursdays.
2) An Email or text service to answer questions specific to your fantasy teams. We would offer renewable packages of – for example, 5, 10 or 20 questions – with the rate per question lower at the higher volumes.
3) You could also request a specific service. We could weigh the demand and the feasibility and add offer such a service.
If you’d be interested in any kind of in-season package, please Email me at lary@fantasybaseballscout. Or Email me anyway with any comments or suggestions.
In the meantime, we’ll be giving you regular Emails through the regular season’s first week.
Fantasy Baseball Scout award winners
Since the time we selected Derrek Lee as the breakout batter of 2003, our first year in operation, we have selected such a player for the (named after his big success, following an interview in Jupiter, Fla., with Lee himself) preseason Derrek Lee Award.
The 2010 winner is Astros RF Hunter Pence, who should be able to help you in five offensive categories if enough of his teammates get on base or drive him in. We’re also very high on Indians OF Shin-soo Choo, who probably would be considered an emerging superstar if he played in New York or Boston instead of Cleveland.
Our 2010 Jarrod Washburn Award winner (for the inexpensive pitcher who will rack up the wins, as our privately recommended Washburn had in 2002) is a familiar name – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey. He was a 2009 winner as well. Slowey still meets our criteria because he hasn’t won more than 13 games in a season. He would have exceeded that level easily if he hadn’t been injured last season, and the same elements are there to predict success for Slowey in ’10.
Other honorees
Best Arm from the Farm: Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson. Tampa Bay has been very patient to date with Hellickson, who has done nothing but win at every level of the minor leagues. He’s not likely to begin this season in the Rays’ rotation, but expect to see him there by midseason. Don’t expect him to walk many batters. Control has been the major secret of his success.
Most Improved Lineup: There haven’t been major changes, but the Twins should have overall improvement. The only wild card is their new stadium, which is expected to be offensively neutral, with no more doubles off the baggie.
Look at these elements. Two of the best offensive performers in baseball, C Joe Mauer and 1B Justin Morneau. Each missed nearly a month last season, and still were among the Americn League leaders. They still are young enough to improve their performance. So are OFs Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer, each capable of driving in 100 runs. Jim Thome has been added as the DH. He’s no longer a 40-home run threat, but he’ll walk enough to be on base when a teammate homers. Speaking of scoring runs, CF Denard Span is another budding star at the top of the lineup. Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, added as the middle-infield starters, will be much better than the automatic outs they’re replacing. The piece that really could put the Twins’ offense over the top is LF Delmon Young. Minnesota has so many potent left-handed bats – Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Thome, Span – that pitchers will save southpaws to pitch against the Twinkies. More lefties mean more opportunities for the right-handed-batting Young.
I had hoped that we’d be able to provide as much information this spring as we have in years past while rebuilding the web site and operating as a free site.
We have given you some pretty good information, but not with the volume or consistency we would have liked. In the absence of revenue from fantasybaseballscout.com, I have had to seek other sources of income. Those other jobs, family and other day-to-day concerns have taken a lot of time away from Emailing and blogging.
This Email will inform you briefly about some of the annual awards and other information we give you concerning sleepers, minor league pitchers and such.
We have had a number of requests from people trying to subscribe to our site. We have had to decline politely their requests to pay us, thanking them for their continued interest.
With the season coming up, we can offer a couple of services to former subscribers and other interested people – for modest fees.
We would offer those based on the amount of interest expressed. You should be able to understand that if we offer a service for $20 or $25 for the season, it would make a lot more sense if a thousand or even a hundred people signed up than if he had 5 or 10 subscribers.
Possible services would be
1) In-season Emails, five or more times a week. These would be the same as we have offered in the past: pitching charts on Saturdays, Weekend Update/Hot and Not on Mondays, minor league updates Tuesdays, injury updates Wednesdays and News and Notes Thursdays.
2) An Email or text service to answer questions specific to your fantasy teams. We would offer renewable packages of – for example, 5, 10 or 20 questions – with the rate per question lower at the higher volumes.
3) You could also request a specific service. We could weigh the demand and the feasibility and add offer such a service.
If you’d be interested in any kind of in-season package, please Email me at lary@fantasybaseballscout. Or Email me anyway with any comments or suggestions.
In the meantime, we’ll be giving you regular Emails through the regular season’s first week.
Fantasy Baseball Scout award winners
Since the time we selected Derrek Lee as the breakout batter of 2003, our first year in operation, we have selected such a player for the (named after his big success, following an interview in Jupiter, Fla., with Lee himself) preseason Derrek Lee Award.
The 2010 winner is Astros RF Hunter Pence, who should be able to help you in five offensive categories if enough of his teammates get on base or drive him in. We’re also very high on Indians OF Shin-soo Choo, who probably would be considered an emerging superstar if he played in New York or Boston instead of Cleveland.
Our 2010 Jarrod Washburn Award winner (for the inexpensive pitcher who will rack up the wins, as our privately recommended Washburn had in 2002) is a familiar name – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey. He was a 2009 winner as well. Slowey still meets our criteria because he hasn’t won more than 13 games in a season. He would have exceeded that level easily if he hadn’t been injured last season, and the same elements are there to predict success for Slowey in ’10.
Other honorees
Best Arm from the Farm: Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson. Tampa Bay has been very patient to date with Hellickson, who has done nothing but win at every level of the minor leagues. He’s not likely to begin this season in the Rays’ rotation, but expect to see him there by midseason. Don’t expect him to walk many batters. Control has been the major secret of his success.
Most Improved Lineup: There haven’t been major changes, but the Twins should have overall improvement. The only wild card is their new stadium, which is expected to be offensively neutral, with no more doubles off the baggie.
Look at these elements. Two of the best offensive performers in baseball, C Joe Mauer and 1B Justin Morneau. Each missed nearly a month last season, and still were among the Americn League leaders. They still are young enough to improve their performance. So are OFs Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer, each capable of driving in 100 runs. Jim Thome has been added as the DH. He’s no longer a 40-home run threat, but he’ll walk enough to be on base when a teammate homers. Speaking of scoring runs, CF Denard Span is another budding star at the top of the lineup. Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, added as the middle-infield starters, will be much better than the automatic outs they’re replacing. The piece that really could put the Twins’ offense over the top is LF Delmon Young. Minnesota has so many potent left-handed bats – Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Thome, Span – that pitchers will save southpaws to pitch against the Twinkies. More lefties mean more opportunities for the right-handed-batting Young.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Santana, Buckner, Tazawa take their lumps
The Yankees won 6-2 in a pitching battle between their left-hander C.C. Sabathia and Tigers RHP Rick Porcello. It was a game Sabathia might have needed; his pitching line of 5 1/3 42228 brought his ERA down to 6.43. Porcello’s ERA went up a tick to 0.75. Three of the runs against him were unearned; his line was 344113. New York 3B Alex Rodriguez hit a home run.
The Twins defeated the Mets 7-3 in another good pitching matchup, which didn’t go the way most people would have expected. Minnesota RHP Kevin Slowey had a line of 331122, giving up a homer to New York C Omir Santos. The Twins battered LHP Johan Santana for a line of 3 1/3 95513. Rookie 3B Danny Valencia, who could take the starting job away from Brendan Harris and Nick Punto, homered against Santana.
Four days after leaving 16 runners on base, the Royals stranded 11. They also scored 24 times in a 24-9 rout of the Diamondbacks. Kansas City built an early 21-0 lead – battering Arizona’s starter, RHP Billy Buckner, for a line of 298813. KC OF Brian Anderson was like one of those old Army ads – “We get more done by 9 a.m. than most people do in a day.” He went 5-for-5, hit for the cycle, drove in seven runs and scored three – and left the game in the fifth inning. The winning pitcher, RHP Brian Bannister, kept his concentration to post a line of 420013. The Royals’ scoring onslaught didn’t stop until the D-backs’ pitching stiffened when RHP Abe Woody pitched a scoreless ninth inning.
The Pirates defeated the Red Sox 9-7 with OF/2B Delwyn Young hitting his fifth home run this spring, against Boston RHP Josh Beckett. OF John Raynor, a Rule 5 draft pick, also homered against RHP Junichi Tazawa, who apparently will be battered this spring all the way to Triple-A Pawtucket.
The Orioles held the Phillies to one hit, OF John Mayberry’s eighth-inning single against RHP Dennis Sarfate, to win 2-0. Baltimore’s starter, LHP Brian Matusz, was sensational. His line was 500026. He could be a reasonable third or fourth fantasy starting pitcher.
The Cubs treated White Sox LHP John Danks badly, handing him an 8-4 loss. He allowed homers to 1B Derrek Lee and OF Marlon Byrd as part of a line of 565514.
RHP Stephen Strasburg was the Nationals’ winning pitcher in their 13-5 victory over the Cardinals. He gave up solo homers to 3B/1B Allen Craig and SS Tyler Greene in his line of 442208. RHP Kyle McClellan took a step backward in his quest for a starting role. He was the losing pitcher with a line of 453242.
Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols hit his first homer, against Marlins RHP Anibal Sanchez, but St. Louis lost 7-6 in another split-squad game. That was because Florida lit up Cards RHP Chris Carpenter for a line of 4 10 7705. RHP Scott Strickland earned a save for the Marlins, who might need help closing games.
Teams are beginning to get serious about using closers in their regular-season role. The Giants had RHP Brian Wilson pitch the ninth inning in their 7-6 victory over the Indians. He struck out the side to pick up a save. LHP Tony Sipp, who could save some games for Cleveland, pitched the eighth and was the losing pitcher. A passed ball led to an unearned winning run; Sipp’s line was 111011. Giants OF/2B Eugenio Velez went 3-for-3 at bat and 2-for-3 stealing bases.
Because the Astros’ scheduled starter, RHP Bud Norris, had the flu, RHP Josh Banks made an emergency start and posted a line of 320012. He was the winner in a 2-0 win over the Blue Jays. The save went to RHP Roy Corcoran, who could have some regular-season saves.
An Indians split squad pounded the Rangers 12-2. Cleveland had a good start, with 1B/3B Andy Marte hitting a grand slam against RHP Brandon McCarthy. His line was 455534. OF Shin-soo Choo also homered against RHP Luis Mendoza.
Athletics 1B Daric Barton hit a home run and went 2-for-3 to raise his average to .440, but the Rockies won 10-4.
The Padres assaulted Dodgers RHP James McDonald for a line of 1 1/3 66621 in relief to take a 9-4 victory. C Dusty Ryan’s three-run homer contributed to raising McDonald’s ERA to 20.25.
The day’s tie game was the Tigers 4, Braves 4, in 10 innings.
Major league leaders:
HR – Rays 2B Sean Rodriguez and Pirates OF/2B Delwyn Young, 5
RBI – Rays SS Reid Brignac and Young, 14
BA (30-plus at-bats) – Mets OF Fernando Martinez, .500, and Cubs OF Tyler Colvin, .486 (at the other end is Braves OF Nate McLouth, .032, 1-for-31)
SB – Brewers OF Carlos Gomez, 8
R – Rangers OFs Julio Borbon and Nelson Cruz, Brewers OF Lorenzo Cain and Rodriguez, 11
W – Blue Jays LHP Ricky Romero, 3
ERA (10-plus innings pitched) – Marlins RHP Clay Hensley, 0.00
WHIP – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey, 0.82
S – Seven with 2 – including Giants RH Sergio Gomez and Astros LHP Wesley Wright, who might have some chances to save games in the majors this season
SO – Orioles LHP Brian Matusz, 18
A Derek Jeter Rule?:
Is Bud Selig running the NFL now too? That’s the only reason I could think of that would make the football league propose a ridiculous idea like the “Brett Favre Rule” that would change its overtime procedure in the playoffs. Of course, if that rule is enacted, expect Selig to decide that if the Yankees in Derek Jeter’s final year (or the Brewers in any year) lose the seventh game of the World Series, it would be extended to best-of-nine.
Sample Scouting Report:
Shin-soo Choo, OF, Indians
Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 200 B: L Age: 27*
{2010} Choo began last season with a sore elbow that bothered him with South Korea’s entry in the World Baseball Classic. For the rest of the year, he was a pain to American League pitchers. He batted .275 against left-handers, allowing him to avoid being platooned. Choo strikes out a lot, but he also has walked enough to produce on-base percentages of .397 and .394 during the past two seasons. Batting third in Cleveland’s lineup, he should both drive in and score plenty of runs. Born: July 13, 1982, South Korea*. 2009: 583 AB, .300 BA, 20 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 87 R.
Projection
AB: 556 BA: .302 HR: 21 RBI: 92 SB: 17 R: 93 Value: $17
The Twins defeated the Mets 7-3 in another good pitching matchup, which didn’t go the way most people would have expected. Minnesota RHP Kevin Slowey had a line of 331122, giving up a homer to New York C Omir Santos. The Twins battered LHP Johan Santana for a line of 3 1/3 95513. Rookie 3B Danny Valencia, who could take the starting job away from Brendan Harris and Nick Punto, homered against Santana.
Four days after leaving 16 runners on base, the Royals stranded 11. They also scored 24 times in a 24-9 rout of the Diamondbacks. Kansas City built an early 21-0 lead – battering Arizona’s starter, RHP Billy Buckner, for a line of 298813. KC OF Brian Anderson was like one of those old Army ads – “We get more done by 9 a.m. than most people do in a day.” He went 5-for-5, hit for the cycle, drove in seven runs and scored three – and left the game in the fifth inning. The winning pitcher, RHP Brian Bannister, kept his concentration to post a line of 420013. The Royals’ scoring onslaught didn’t stop until the D-backs’ pitching stiffened when RHP Abe Woody pitched a scoreless ninth inning.
The Pirates defeated the Red Sox 9-7 with OF/2B Delwyn Young hitting his fifth home run this spring, against Boston RHP Josh Beckett. OF John Raynor, a Rule 5 draft pick, also homered against RHP Junichi Tazawa, who apparently will be battered this spring all the way to Triple-A Pawtucket.
The Orioles held the Phillies to one hit, OF John Mayberry’s eighth-inning single against RHP Dennis Sarfate, to win 2-0. Baltimore’s starter, LHP Brian Matusz, was sensational. His line was 500026. He could be a reasonable third or fourth fantasy starting pitcher.
The Cubs treated White Sox LHP John Danks badly, handing him an 8-4 loss. He allowed homers to 1B Derrek Lee and OF Marlon Byrd as part of a line of 565514.
RHP Stephen Strasburg was the Nationals’ winning pitcher in their 13-5 victory over the Cardinals. He gave up solo homers to 3B/1B Allen Craig and SS Tyler Greene in his line of 442208. RHP Kyle McClellan took a step backward in his quest for a starting role. He was the losing pitcher with a line of 453242.
Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols hit his first homer, against Marlins RHP Anibal Sanchez, but St. Louis lost 7-6 in another split-squad game. That was because Florida lit up Cards RHP Chris Carpenter for a line of 4 10 7705. RHP Scott Strickland earned a save for the Marlins, who might need help closing games.
Teams are beginning to get serious about using closers in their regular-season role. The Giants had RHP Brian Wilson pitch the ninth inning in their 7-6 victory over the Indians. He struck out the side to pick up a save. LHP Tony Sipp, who could save some games for Cleveland, pitched the eighth and was the losing pitcher. A passed ball led to an unearned winning run; Sipp’s line was 111011. Giants OF/2B Eugenio Velez went 3-for-3 at bat and 2-for-3 stealing bases.
Because the Astros’ scheduled starter, RHP Bud Norris, had the flu, RHP Josh Banks made an emergency start and posted a line of 320012. He was the winner in a 2-0 win over the Blue Jays. The save went to RHP Roy Corcoran, who could have some regular-season saves.
An Indians split squad pounded the Rangers 12-2. Cleveland had a good start, with 1B/3B Andy Marte hitting a grand slam against RHP Brandon McCarthy. His line was 455534. OF Shin-soo Choo also homered against RHP Luis Mendoza.
Athletics 1B Daric Barton hit a home run and went 2-for-3 to raise his average to .440, but the Rockies won 10-4.
The Padres assaulted Dodgers RHP James McDonald for a line of 1 1/3 66621 in relief to take a 9-4 victory. C Dusty Ryan’s three-run homer contributed to raising McDonald’s ERA to 20.25.
The day’s tie game was the Tigers 4, Braves 4, in 10 innings.
Major league leaders:
HR – Rays 2B Sean Rodriguez and Pirates OF/2B Delwyn Young, 5
RBI – Rays SS Reid Brignac and Young, 14
BA (30-plus at-bats) – Mets OF Fernando Martinez, .500, and Cubs OF Tyler Colvin, .486 (at the other end is Braves OF Nate McLouth, .032, 1-for-31)
SB – Brewers OF Carlos Gomez, 8
R – Rangers OFs Julio Borbon and Nelson Cruz, Brewers OF Lorenzo Cain and Rodriguez, 11
W – Blue Jays LHP Ricky Romero, 3
ERA (10-plus innings pitched) – Marlins RHP Clay Hensley, 0.00
WHIP – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey, 0.82
S – Seven with 2 – including Giants RH Sergio Gomez and Astros LHP Wesley Wright, who might have some chances to save games in the majors this season
SO – Orioles LHP Brian Matusz, 18
A Derek Jeter Rule?:
Is Bud Selig running the NFL now too? That’s the only reason I could think of that would make the football league propose a ridiculous idea like the “Brett Favre Rule” that would change its overtime procedure in the playoffs. Of course, if that rule is enacted, expect Selig to decide that if the Yankees in Derek Jeter’s final year (or the Brewers in any year) lose the seventh game of the World Series, it would be extended to best-of-nine.
Sample Scouting Report:
Shin-soo Choo, OF, Indians
Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 200 B: L Age: 27*
{2010} Choo began last season with a sore elbow that bothered him with South Korea’s entry in the World Baseball Classic. For the rest of the year, he was a pain to American League pitchers. He batted .275 against left-handers, allowing him to avoid being platooned. Choo strikes out a lot, but he also has walked enough to produce on-base percentages of .397 and .394 during the past two seasons. Batting third in Cleveland’s lineup, he should both drive in and score plenty of runs. Born: July 13, 1982, South Korea*. 2009: 583 AB, .300 BA, 20 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 87 R.
Projection
AB: 556 BA: .302 HR: 21 RBI: 92 SB: 17 R: 93 Value: $17
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Bizarro baseball: Nats win twice, Sox blanked twice
After we wrote about how the Astros still pretty much suck, one of the connections to better days came up with a big game. RHP Roy Oswalt had a pitching line of 420011 in a 3-0 shutout of the Red Sox. LHP Wesley Wright came up with his second save, but his ERA still looks like the number of one of those barely paved, two-lane state highways out in the sticks. For Houston, Koby Clemens, the son of a former major league pitcher and a performance-enhanced mother, played first base.
Another Red Sox split squad also was shut out, 7-0 by the Rays. RHP Wade Davis lowered his ERA to 7.04 with a pitching line of 430015, and 2B Sean Rodriguez hit his fifth home run against RHP Junichi Tazawa. He knew he was no longer pitching in a Japanese industrial league; Tampa Bay’s three runs in his one inning were the first clue.
A second group of Astros weren’t as fortunate in a 4-1 loss to the Yankees. The game’s highlight was New York RHP Phil Hughes’ lengthy save, with a line of 430012.
Some bad pitchers changed hands in the ballyhooed Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks trade during the off-season. Arizona was left holding the bag with RHP Edwin Jackson, whose line in a 13-7 loss to the Reds was 2 1/3 67720. Jackson gave up a home run to OF Jay Bruce. He and 2B Brandon Phillips came in with averages under .200.
The Phillies used the work of LHP Cole Hamels (line: 521004) and rookie OF Domonic Brown (his first two homers this spring) in a 6-1 victory over the Tigers. One of Brown’s homers was against the losing pitcher, RHP Justin Verlander (3 1/3 34415). The other came against LHP Phil Coke, another in the aforementioned trade.
The Nationals came into the day with an 0-11 record – and left with not one, but two, wins. One split squad defeated the Marlins 12-3 behind RHP Craig Stammen (432014) and a grand slam by OF/2B Willie Harris against LHP Taylor Tankersley. For the other squad, LHP John Lannan’s pitching (421002) C Ivan Rodriguez’s three runs batted in added up to a 4-2 victory over the Cardinals.
In the Indians-Giants game, San Francisco RHP Tim Lincecum had the winning poker hand (444444) but Cleveland won 7-1 behind RHP Jake Westbrook’s pitching (421101) and OF Shin-soo Choo’s homer. We’re touting Choo this spring.
Sample Scouting Report:
Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 220 T: R Age: 24 Inj. Risk: 10 Alt. Pos.: SP
{2010} Davis throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a hard curve. How far he ultimately advances in the majors could be determined by how well he can develop a third pitch. For now, his status as a prospect is behind LHP David Price and RHP Jeremy Hellickson in the Rays’ organization. Last season, in Davis’ second shot at Triple-A Durham, he was 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings. That performance earned him a spot in Tampa Bay’s rotation after the Rays traded LHP Scott Kazmir. Davis could maintain his starting role by beating out RHP Andy Sonnanstine or become a vital cog in the bullpen this year. Born: Sept. 7, 1985, Lake Wales, Fla. 2009: Rays, 36 IP, 2 W, 3.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0 S, 36 SO.
Projection
IP: 109 W: 8 ERA: 3.88 WHIP: 1.34 S: 2 SO: 102 Value: $4
Another Red Sox split squad also was shut out, 7-0 by the Rays. RHP Wade Davis lowered his ERA to 7.04 with a pitching line of 430015, and 2B Sean Rodriguez hit his fifth home run against RHP Junichi Tazawa. He knew he was no longer pitching in a Japanese industrial league; Tampa Bay’s three runs in his one inning were the first clue.
A second group of Astros weren’t as fortunate in a 4-1 loss to the Yankees. The game’s highlight was New York RHP Phil Hughes’ lengthy save, with a line of 430012.
Some bad pitchers changed hands in the ballyhooed Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks trade during the off-season. Arizona was left holding the bag with RHP Edwin Jackson, whose line in a 13-7 loss to the Reds was 2 1/3 67720. Jackson gave up a home run to OF Jay Bruce. He and 2B Brandon Phillips came in with averages under .200.
The Phillies used the work of LHP Cole Hamels (line: 521004) and rookie OF Domonic Brown (his first two homers this spring) in a 6-1 victory over the Tigers. One of Brown’s homers was against the losing pitcher, RHP Justin Verlander (3 1/3 34415). The other came against LHP Phil Coke, another in the aforementioned trade.
The Nationals came into the day with an 0-11 record – and left with not one, but two, wins. One split squad defeated the Marlins 12-3 behind RHP Craig Stammen (432014) and a grand slam by OF/2B Willie Harris against LHP Taylor Tankersley. For the other squad, LHP John Lannan’s pitching (421002) C Ivan Rodriguez’s three runs batted in added up to a 4-2 victory over the Cardinals.
In the Indians-Giants game, San Francisco RHP Tim Lincecum had the winning poker hand (444444) but Cleveland won 7-1 behind RHP Jake Westbrook’s pitching (421101) and OF Shin-soo Choo’s homer. We’re touting Choo this spring.
Sample Scouting Report:
Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 220 T: R Age: 24 Inj. Risk: 10 Alt. Pos.: SP
{2010} Davis throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a hard curve. How far he ultimately advances in the majors could be determined by how well he can develop a third pitch. For now, his status as a prospect is behind LHP David Price and RHP Jeremy Hellickson in the Rays’ organization. Last season, in Davis’ second shot at Triple-A Durham, he was 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings. That performance earned him a spot in Tampa Bay’s rotation after the Rays traded LHP Scott Kazmir. Davis could maintain his starting role by beating out RHP Andy Sonnanstine or become a vital cog in the bullpen this year. Born: Sept. 7, 1985, Lake Wales, Fla. 2009: Rays, 36 IP, 2 W, 3.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0 S, 36 SO.
Projection
IP: 109 W: 8 ERA: 3.88 WHIP: 1.34 S: 2 SO: 102 Value: $4
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