The defensive All-Stars

The All-Star ballot I outlined in an earlier post took only batting into account.

I didn’t project a better-rounded team because there aren’t established metrics that everyone can agree on for fielding or baserunning.

Fielding has Range Factor, a fairly simple metric that tells part of the story. By merely dividing total chances by games (or 9 innings), you can get a measure of how much ground a player covers. That way you can differentiate a player who can get to a lot of batted balls from another who makes plays on balls hit close to him.

What it can’t tell you is whether a player’s Range Factor is higher because he has more balls hit in his direction than other players at his position. For example, if he’s a third baseman on a team with three or four left-handed starting pitchers and a large number of ground-ball pitchers.

Other people will tell you about DWAR, Defensive Wins Above Replacement, even after your eyes glaze over from boredom and an aversion to math.

First basemen and catchers don’t have measurable range. For 1Bs, I’m using DWAR. Catchers do have a viable measure, catcher’s ERA, in addition to DWAR.

By combining the available metrics, I came up with this list of defensive All-Stars that I voted for on a ballot in addition to my "true" offensive All-Stars:

American League

C Salvador Perez, Royals

1B Mike Napoli, Red Sox

2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox

3B Josh Donaldson, Athletics

SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

LF Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics

CF Leonys Martin, Rangers

RF Nick Markakis, Orioles

National League

C Yadier Molina, Cardinals

1B Matt Adams, Cardinals

2B Brandon Phillips, Reds

3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants

SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

LF Khris Davis, Brewers

CF Marcell Ozuna, Marlins

RF Jason Heyward, Braves

Three players are on both my offensive and defensive All-Star teams. I don't think you could come up with a good reason not to vote for Donaldson, Ramirez and Tulowitzki. OK, you're going to tell me Donaldson has more errors than anyone west of Pedro Alvarez, but at the time I checked the defensive metrics, Donaldson led major league third basemen in DWAR and the AL third sackers in Range Factor.

Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado and Athletics RF Josh Reddick would have been on my defensive ballot, but they're injured.

There were some ties. 

With only one metric, DWAR, at first base -- and precious little positive value, with just four 1B above 0.0 when I checked the numbers, there was little choice. Napoli tied with Kansas City's Eric Hosmer and Adams with San Diego's Yonder Alonso. I broke the tie the way Gold Glove voters seem to, by which is the better offensive player. In hindsight, I should have gone with Hosmer in the AL. He is a truly gifted defender. Don't talk to me about the Diamondbacks' Paul Goldschmidt. I haven't seen him in person very much, but when I have he has struck me as a good hitter but not a good fielder. At the time I looked at DWARs, Goldschmidt was at -0.5, or a greater negative value than any first baseman's positive value.

Speaking of defense, I just noticed that I made an error at second base in the NL. The Rockies' D.J. LeMahieu ranked ahead of Phillips in both RF and DWAR.

For the NL catcher, Molina and the Giants' Buster Posey had the same combined ranking. As a tiebreaker, I used DWAR, where Molina ranked higher, ahead of CERA, where Posey led the league.

Similarly, Ozuna's superior DWAR broke a tie with the Cardinals' Peter Bourjos and Heyward's major league-best DWAR in right field put him ahead of Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton. By the way, lost among some pretty good offensive statistics, Miami has probably the majors' best outfield defense. LF Christian Yelich also ranked second in the NL in the combined metrics.

* * *

I also looked for individual base-running metrics that could help in establishing a list of well rounded All-Stars, but there didn't seem to be enough evidence (call it small sample size) to make an educated guess about one player over another. Baseball Prospectus' base-running metric (positive and negative runs) includes five different types of runs -- Ground Advancement, Stolen Base, Air Advancement, Hit Advancement and Other Advancement.

There could be some merit in the larger sampling of team base-running runs. At the time I researched this post, the Royals led the majors with almost 10 runs, 50% more than the runner-up Mariners. The Cubs led the NL. By far, the worst teams were the Red Sox and Athletics, with the old and infirm Phillies last in the National League. 

KC's base-running prowess could be a reason why the Royals stayed in contention despite some atrocious hitting. Base-running appeared to be just another problem for Boston, another aging team with injury issues. I was surprised to see the Rangers among the AL base-running leaders, because even during their recent contending days they have made miserable mistakes on the bases. Texas was slightly above 0. I'm guessing the positive ranking could have been built on Stolen Base Runs -- with a trio of base stealers in Martin, Elvis Andrus and Alex Rios. 

There didn't appear to be much correlation between good base-running teams and teams high in the standings. Four teams currently in playoff position ranked in the top third in base-running, but three "playoff teams" ranked in the bottom third.

Player rankings

Here are offensive player rankings at each position for each league. It includes only players who (through June 12) would qualify for a batting title.
The numbers after their name are their total rank for Hittability and Strikeability at their position. For example, among the 11 qualifying catchers, Kurt Suzuki ranked seventh in slugging percentage and first in W/K ratio (7+1=8).

Catchers
AL-1. Kurt Suzuki, Twins 8, 2. Salvador Perez, Royals 9, 3. Yan Gomes, Indians 13, 4. A.J. Pierzynski, Red Sox 19, 5. Brian McCann, Yankees 19, 6. Jason Castro, Astros 20.
NL-1. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers 4, 2. Miguel Montero, D-backs 6, 3. Buster Posey, Giants 11, 4. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies 11, 5. Yadier Molina, Cardinals 12.
First Basemen
AL-1. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 6, 2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 17, 3. Albert Pujols, Angels 18, 4. Adam Dunn, White Sox 18, 5. Brandon Moss, Athletics 21, 6. James Loney, Rays 25, 7. Mike Napoli, Red Sox 26, 8. Jose Abreu, White Sox 27, 9. Alberto Callaspo, Athletics 27, 10. Chris Davis, Orioles 31, 11, Joe Mauer, Twins 35, 12. Chris Carter, Astros 37, 13. Nick Swisher, Indians 37, 14. Justin Smoak, Mariners 44, 15. Eric Hosmer, Royals 45.
NL-1. Adam LaRoche, Nationals 8, 2. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 10, 3. Freddie Freeman, Braves 15, 4. Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 23, 5. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers 25, 6. Justin Morneau, Rockies 28, 7. Lucas Duda, Mets 28, 8. Garrett Jones, Marlins 32, 9. Mark Reynolds, Brewers 37, 10. Yonder Alonso, Padres 38, 11. Ryan Howard, Phillies 44.
Second Basemen
AL-1. Brian Dozier, Twins 7, 2. Jose Altuve, Astros 11, 3. Robinson Cano, Mariners 12, 4. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 14, 5. Ben Zobrist, Rays 18, 6. Ian Kinsler, Tigers 20, 7. Howie Kendrick, Angels 23, 8. Brian Roberts, Yankees 28, 9. Jonathan Schoop, Orioles 39.
NL-1. Anthony Rendon, Nationals 11, 2. Chase Utley, Phillies 12, 3. Daniel Murphy, Mets 12, 4. Neil Walker, Pirates 17, 5. Dee Gordon, Dodgers 24, 6. Scooter Gennett, Brewers 25, 7. Aaron Hill, D-backs 28, 8. D.J. LeMahieu, Rockies 30, 9. Brandon Phillips, Reds 31, 10. Brandon Hicks, Giants 31, 11. Danny Espinosa, Nationals 36, 12. Emilio Bonifacio, Cubs 36, 13. Jedd Gyorko, Padres 41.
Third Basemen
AL-1. Josh Donaldson, Athletics 7, 2. Yangervis Solarte, Yankees 7, 3. Adrian Beltre, Rangers 9, 4. Kurt Seager, Mariners 12, 5. Carlos Santana, Indians 19, 6. Trevor Plouffe, Twins 20, 7. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays 22, 8. Evan Longoria, Rays 23, 9. Nick Castellanos, Tigers 26, 10. Matt Dominguez, Astros 26.
NL-1. Todd Frazier, Reds 10, 2. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates 15, 3. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 16, 4. Casey McGehee,  Marlins 18, 5. Pablo Sandoval, Giants 19, 6. Martin Prado, D-backs 28, 7. David Wright, Mets 30, 8. Chris Johnson, Braves 35.
Shortstops
AL-1. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox 9, 2. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays 15, 3. Erick Aybar, Angels 16, 4. Jed Lowrie, Athletics 17, 5. Yunel Escobar, Rays 22, 6. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 24, 7. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians 25, 8. Elvis Andrus, Rangers 26, 9. Alcides Escobar, Royals 29, 10. Derek Jeter, Yankees 33, 11. J.J. Hardy, Orioles 37, 12. Brad Miller, Mariners 44.
NL-1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 3, 2. Brandon Crawford, Giants 15, 3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies 17, 4. Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals 19, 5. Ian Desmond, Nationals 22, 6. Starlin Castro, Cubs 22, 7. Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers 22, 8. Andrelton Simmons, Braves 24, 9. Chris Owings, D-backs 28, 10. Jean Segura, Brewers 42, 11. Adeiny Hechavarria, Marlins 44, 12. Everth Cabrera, Padres 47, 13. Zack Cozart, Reds 48.
Left Fielders
AL-1. Michael Brantley, Indians 8, 2. Nelson Cruz, Orioles 9, 3. Alex Gordon, Royals 14, 4. Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays 17, 5. Shin-soo Choo, Rangers 18, 6. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics 20, 7. Matt Joyce, Rays 23, 8. Brett Gardner, Yankees 30, 9. Dustin Ackley, Mariners 30, 10. Rajai Davis, Blue Jays 31, 11. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox 34, 12. Alfonso Soriano, Yankees 37.
NL-1. Seth Smith, Padres 7, 2. Justin Upton, Braves 13, 3. Christian Yelich, Marlins 19, 4. Matt Holliday, Cardinals 20, 5. Michael Morse, Giants 21, 6. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 25, 7. Khris Davis, Brewers 27, 8. Junior Lake, Cubs 32, 9. Domonic Brown, Phillies 33, 10. Starling Marte, Pirates 37.
Center Fielders
AL-1. Coco Crisp, Athletics 7, 2. Mike Trout, Angels 9, 3. Dexter Fowler, Astros 14, 4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees 16, 5. Austin Jackson, Tigers 19, 6. Desmond Jennings, Rays 23, 7. Adam Jones, Orioles 24, 8. Michael Bourn, Indians 27, 9. Adam Eaton, White Sox 28, 10. Leonys Martin, Rangers 32, 11. Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox 34.
NL-1. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 5, 2. Angel Pagan, Giants 13, 3. Denard Span, Nationals 14, 4. Carlos Gomez, Brewers 15, 5. Matt Kemp, Dodgers 18, 6. Marcell Ozuna, Marlins 23, 7. B.J. Upton, Braves 31, 8. Billy Hamilton, Reds 33, 9. Ben Revere, Phillies 35.
Right Fielders
AL-1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 4, 2. David Murphy, Indians 15, 3. Nick Markakis, Orioles 16, 4. George Springer, Astros 23, 5. Alex Rios, Rangers 23, 6. Norichika Aoki, Royals 26, 7. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox 30, 8. Torii Hunter, Tigers 31, 9. Wil Myers, Rays 31.
NL-1. Yasiel Puig, Dodgers 7, 2. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 10, 3. Hunter Pence, Giants 15, 4. Ryan Braun, Brewers 18, 5. Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 18, 6. Jayson Werth, Nationals 20, 7. Jason Heyward, Braves 24, 8. Curtis Granderson, Mets 26, 9. Marlon Byrd, Phillies 28, 10. Gerardo Parra, D-backs 28, 11. Allen Craig, Cardinals 33, 12. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs 39.
Designated Hitters
AL-1. Victor Martinez, Tigers 2, 2. David Ortiz, Red Sox 4, 3. Billy Butler, Royals 6.
Notes: Yangervis Solarte seems intent on proving me wrong.
In case of ties, I gave the advantage to the player with the higher slugging percentage.

The one true All-Star ballot

Wednesday night at Rangers Ballpark, Margaret amused herself by filling out the All-Star ballots as we arrived at the game against the Marlins.
After filling out a few with Rangers in the American League lineup as the scoreboard reminded us and  Pirates in the National League as a nod to my favorite team, she asked me who I'd like to vote for.
I tried to figure out in my head which players I'd choose, and she punched out a couple of ballots with those picks.
Two days later, I did some rudimentary statistical research and came up with a more scientific list. Turns out that 10 of the 19 picks were the same, so I guess "in my head" had some good ideas.
My method was the Hittability (slugging percentage) and Strikeability (W/K ratio) ratings that I've used to determine both overall offensive performance and those players who are overachieving or underachieving.
The lineups I'll be advocating when I make out my one ballot this weekend will be thus:
American League -- C Kurt Suzuki, Twins; 1B Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays; 2B Brian Dozier, Twins; 3B Josh Donaldson, Athletics; SS-Alexei Ramirez, White Sox; LF-Michael Brantley, Indians; CF-Coco Crisp, Athletics; RF-Jose Bautista, Blue Jays; DH-Victor Martinez, Tigers.
National League -- C Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks*; 1B-Adam LaRoche, Nationals; 2B-Anthony Rendon, Nationals; 3B-Todd Frazier, Reds; SS-Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; LF-Seth Smith, Padres; CF-Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; RF-Yasiel Puig, Dodgers.
*-Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy actually came out on top, but I couldn't in good conscience vote for a Milwaukee player so I'll put runner-up Montero on the ballot.
Lucroy was one of the players I gave Margaret for her punching pleasure that won't appear on the ballot I punch out or record online. The others who didn't make my final cut were D-backs 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Pirates 2B Neil Walker, Mets 3B David Wright and I'm not sure about the other NL outfielder (maybe the Giants' Hunter Pence?) and, in the American League, Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera, Astros 2B Jose Altuve and Angels OF Mike Trout.
As I noted, I'm voting just once. Perhaps it's the purist in me, but I don't believe in blindly punching out piles of ballots for just the home team's players. I mean, do Rangers 1B Prince Fielder and Pirates OF Starling Marte really deserve to start in the All-Star game? But I realize that filling out a ballot strictly on party lines is a staple among American voters.
I like my ballot and believe it is representative of players having the first half, or at least first 2 1/2 months, of the 2014 season. I believe I'm well informed, but I also know that other well informed baseball fans would disagree on a number of choices, not just Coco Crisp.
I don't have a problem with less-informed fans or even non-fans should vote. This is a good way to get people interested in baseball and All-Star Game, people who might not care otherwise. And there is another long-standing tradition in American elections of people who aren't very well informed (or worse) casting their ballots.
On that patriotic note, Happy Flag Day!

Could Donaldson, Belt help your hunt for homers?

In Saturday's post, I mentioned power only in passing.
There come times in a season when you're looking for power. This could be one, especially for owners with Orioles 1B Chris Davis on the roster.
In the first place, Davis hasn't been hitting with power. In the second, he might not even play for the next two weeks if he goes on the disabled list.
The easy choices are the current major league leaders, Angels 1B Albert Pujols and White Sox 1B Jose Abreu. They each have nine homers in less than four weeks. What's that you say? Pujols was a keeper in your league and other owners jumped on Abreu as the new kid on the power block?
OK, let's look a bit further down the home run list.
With eight homers, there's Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez. That's a pace for more than 50 this season. But should you be concerned because that's about twice the number he has hit in most seasons? Yes. I'm not even talking about steroids in this article, but you know which players to whisper about amongst yourselves.
The 7-HR group has some of the players you'd expect -- Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista, Marlins OF Mike Stanton and Diamondbacks OF Mark Trumbo, who's now injured. I've already touched on Twins SS Brian Dozier. There are up-and-comers such as Giants 1B Brandon Belt and Athletics 3B Josh Donaldson. I'm not sure about Belt as a consistent power source, but I could see power potential in Donaldson, even though he's not very big, back when he was a minor league catcher. Braves OF Justin Upton also has seven homers in what appears to be a bounce-back season.
Those with six homers also include some you'd expect -- Brewers OF Ryan Braun, who has been hitting his homers in bunches; Orioles OF Nelson Cruz; Braves 1B Freddie Freeman and C/OF Evan Gattis; Giants OF Mike Morse; Angels OF Mike Trout, and Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez. Like last season, when he finished strong to tie for the National League lead, Alvarez has started slowly, with a batting average still on the interstate. He probably could use more protection in a lineup that hasn't been working. However, Pittsburgh 2B Neil Walker also has six homers, a pace he seems highly unlikely to keep up. He's also less effective against right-handed pitchers, the kind that Alvarez terrorizes. He's sometimes platoon-replaced against lefties.
Missing from that list is Tigers 1B/3B Miguel Cabrera, who reached five homers with a hot Week 4. He's a perfect example of why I don't like to make yes-or-no decisions about players until after Week 5.
Saturday was a difficult day for a number of players. Nationals OF Bryce Harper went on the disabled list Sunday. Davis seemed likely to join him on the DL. Braun left Saturday's game because of a strained intercostal muscle and his teammate, SS Jean Segura, left Milwaukee's lineup after being hit in the face by a Braun practice swing.
More coming over the next few days about other fantasy categories -- most importantly stolen bases and saves. I also expect some shorter posts with observations about players I see in person. Those could be similar to Saturday's comments about Rangers LHP Martin Perez.