Braves RHP Kris Medlen's progression has been easy to project.
The first news over the weekend was that he had a strained forearm. The next word, that he had ligament damage in his elbow. Next, he visited Dr. James Andrews. Now he might seek a second opinion.
Here's how this is going to end: Tommy John surgery. Mark my words.
Give the Braves credit, and give RHP Ervin Santana a couple of million extra dollars, for Atlanta's fast action. The Braves swooped in and signed the free agent away from other key suitors, the Blue Jays and Orioles, for $14 million.
Santana is the greatest beneficiary among the late-signing free agents. Don't you think OF Nelson Cruz today is wishing Jason Heyward had been injured, so the former Ranger would have received more than the $8 million Baltimore is paying him for 2014?
For openers: It's no surprise that LHP David Price will be the Rays' Opening Day starter.
I hope to be back with more baseball later today. I'm also recording tonight's Giants-Rangers game in case I don't watch it live.
* * *
Hockey. I'm in a rut at 65 points. Still in third place, but the teams above me currently are pulling away and the fourth-place team keeps gaining half a point or a point here and there. The worst was when the team in fourth moved ahead of me in penalty minutes. It's just a 3-minute gap now, but I might have to sign someone like Antoine Roussel to get a couple of extra fights in there.
No. 4 is also three goalie wins and 1 1/2 points ahead of me. I outsmarted myself on a Tuesday matchup by not starting newly acquired Tim Thomas. I didn't think, especially coming off the trauma of Monday night's Rich Peverley collapse, that the Stars could win at St. Louis. They and Thomas did win, allowing just two goals in the overtime game.
* * *
Basketball. After losing for the first time since Week 3, 4-3-1 to the second-place team overall, I've fallen behind 5-3 again this week.
I would like to get 100 wins for our regular season, which ends Sunday. I'd need four wins this week to do that. But more than that, I'd prefer not to lose each of the last two weeks going into the playoffs.
It appears that I'll have four players active Thursday, to just two for my opponent. That could help me make up deficits of one 3-pointer and one steal. I wouldn't be in such dire straits if I hadn't neglected to update my lineup Monday -- leaving three active players, including Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire's big game. Looking back, I think I updated my hockey lineup that day and assumed that I'd also made my basketball changes. Let's not do that again.
Showing posts with label Nelson Cruz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nelson Cruz. Show all posts
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Major leaguers still better than college players
There were sort of real exhibition baseball games today in Florida.
The Tigers and Yankees each took on a college team that posed new threat. All four lineups were littered with no-name players. In fact, the most recognizable might have been Jameis Winston, who played for Florida State in its 8-3 loss to New York.
A guy named Ramon Flores homered for the Yankees. Their starting and winning pitcher was LHP Vidal Nuno, with two scoreless inning.
For Detroit, Steven Moya, who has been hanging around Lakeland for the last four late winters/springs, drove in four runs with a double and a triple. LHP Robbie Ray, the winning pitcher, struck out five Florida Southern batters in two innings of a 12-0 shutout. The Tigers' starter, RHP Drew VerHagen, struck out two in two perfect innings. He no doubt faced tougher batters when he was at Vanderbilt, and again last season in the Double-A Eastern League.
Elsewhere,
-- The biggest news, probably non-news in the long run, came from the Angels' camp. LHP C.J. Wilson was hit by C Yorvit Torrealba's batted ball during batting practice, and OF Josh Hamilton was on crutches because of a strained left calf. Neither injury is expected to affect regular-season playing time.
-- Free-agent LHP Johan Santana threw for seven teams in Florida. His fastest pitch hit 81 mph. That means for his changeup to remain effective he'd have to dial it down to about 65.
-- For openers: LHP Madison Bumgarner would start the Giants' first regular-season game.
-- Baltimore. OF Nelson Cruz passed his physical, and now is officially an Oriole.
-- Washington. RHP Ryan Matheus was scheduled for an MRI exam to determine the cause of chest pain that has kept him from throwing for six days.
-- Pittsburgh. For some reason, the Pirates claimed 3B Brent Morel on waivers from the Blue Jays. Because he's a Steelers fan, perhaps?
On Wednesday, there will be slightly more real games, at least between two teams wearing major league uniforms: Tigers-Braves, Yankees-Pirates, Blue Jays-Phillies in Florida, and Reds-Indians, Athletics-Giants and Dodgers-Diamondbacks in Arizona. There also will be a Miami vs. Miami game. In that one, my money is on the Marlins over the Hurricanes from The U. I think.
* * *
Basketball. Not a good start for my fantasy team this week. I couldn't get on to the ESPN.com site earlier Tuesday. By the time I could, about 7:30 p.m. EST, I wasn't able to put Tyler Zeller into the starting lineup. Not sure whether that's a good or a bad thing.
Worse news: I was trailing this week's competition 5-3. I'm going against the team in second place overall and leading the other division. If he keeps that advantage, he would stay alive for at least another week. Going by the early (small-sample-size) results, two other teams would remain alive in the fantasy regular season.
The oddity is that I was leading in the categories that usually give me trouble: the two shooting percentages and 3-pointers. I trailed by two steals and three blocks, so I'm not entirely pushing a panic button.
Even worse news: The newest addition to Team Fresh Prints, Knicks G Raymond Felton, was arrested in the wee hours of Tuesday on weapons possession charges. He won't be back in court until June 2, which would be long after the Knicks are finished for the season, so I wouldn't be without him -- if I decide to keep him on my roster.
Updating an hour later: The Zeller non-move is paying off. He has 0 points in the third quarter. Despite a double double already by David West and 20 points from Victor Oladipo, the score is down to 4-4. No more posting partial scores.
* * *
Hockey. I currently have nine skaters listed as playing Wednesday. That means I'll have to get up early and make sure I have the right players in my lineup each day through the end of the week, and that I've made all the moves that need to be made. Should I waive my two players on IR: Henrik Zetterberg and Valtteri Filppula? I'll let you know.
The Tigers and Yankees each took on a college team that posed new threat. All four lineups were littered with no-name players. In fact, the most recognizable might have been Jameis Winston, who played for Florida State in its 8-3 loss to New York.
A guy named Ramon Flores homered for the Yankees. Their starting and winning pitcher was LHP Vidal Nuno, with two scoreless inning.
For Detroit, Steven Moya, who has been hanging around Lakeland for the last four late winters/springs, drove in four runs with a double and a triple. LHP Robbie Ray, the winning pitcher, struck out five Florida Southern batters in two innings of a 12-0 shutout. The Tigers' starter, RHP Drew VerHagen, struck out two in two perfect innings. He no doubt faced tougher batters when he was at Vanderbilt, and again last season in the Double-A Eastern League.
Elsewhere,
-- The biggest news, probably non-news in the long run, came from the Angels' camp. LHP C.J. Wilson was hit by C Yorvit Torrealba's batted ball during batting practice, and OF Josh Hamilton was on crutches because of a strained left calf. Neither injury is expected to affect regular-season playing time.
-- Free-agent LHP Johan Santana threw for seven teams in Florida. His fastest pitch hit 81 mph. That means for his changeup to remain effective he'd have to dial it down to about 65.
-- For openers: LHP Madison Bumgarner would start the Giants' first regular-season game.
-- Baltimore. OF Nelson Cruz passed his physical, and now is officially an Oriole.
-- Washington. RHP Ryan Matheus was scheduled for an MRI exam to determine the cause of chest pain that has kept him from throwing for six days.
-- Pittsburgh. For some reason, the Pirates claimed 3B Brent Morel on waivers from the Blue Jays. Because he's a Steelers fan, perhaps?
On Wednesday, there will be slightly more real games, at least between two teams wearing major league uniforms: Tigers-Braves, Yankees-Pirates, Blue Jays-Phillies in Florida, and Reds-Indians, Athletics-Giants and Dodgers-Diamondbacks in Arizona. There also will be a Miami vs. Miami game. In that one, my money is on the Marlins over the Hurricanes from The U. I think.
* * *
Basketball. Not a good start for my fantasy team this week. I couldn't get on to the ESPN.com site earlier Tuesday. By the time I could, about 7:30 p.m. EST, I wasn't able to put Tyler Zeller into the starting lineup. Not sure whether that's a good or a bad thing.
Worse news: I was trailing this week's competition 5-3. I'm going against the team in second place overall and leading the other division. If he keeps that advantage, he would stay alive for at least another week. Going by the early (small-sample-size) results, two other teams would remain alive in the fantasy regular season.
The oddity is that I was leading in the categories that usually give me trouble: the two shooting percentages and 3-pointers. I trailed by two steals and three blocks, so I'm not entirely pushing a panic button.
Even worse news: The newest addition to Team Fresh Prints, Knicks G Raymond Felton, was arrested in the wee hours of Tuesday on weapons possession charges. He won't be back in court until June 2, which would be long after the Knicks are finished for the season, so I wouldn't be without him -- if I decide to keep him on my roster.
Updating an hour later: The Zeller non-move is paying off. He has 0 points in the third quarter. Despite a double double already by David West and 20 points from Victor Oladipo, the score is down to 4-4. No more posting partial scores.
* * *
Hockey. I currently have nine skaters listed as playing Wednesday. That means I'll have to get up early and make sure I have the right players in my lineup each day through the end of the week, and that I've made all the moves that need to be made. Should I waive my two players on IR: Henrik Zetterberg and Valtteri Filppula? I'll let you know.
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Cruz a gamble for Orioles
Today's "Newberg Report" Email from Jamey Newberg links to a damning FanGraphs article by Dave Cameron about OF Nelson Cruz.
He's in Florida now for a physical with the Orioles, with whom he has reportedly agreed on a 1-year contract for $8 million. Meanwhile, the Rangers are probably glad to have a supplemental draft pick instead of having to pay the $14.1 million it would have taken if Cruz had accepted their tender.
I think for a year or two, Camden Yards can hide Cruz's deficiencies. He still has enough power, even if not enhanced by PEDs, to hit home runs there. And right field is small enough to keep him from getting into too much trouble if he plays in the outfield.
-- The Dodgers are looking at a potential all-Cuban middle infield. They have signed SS Erisbel Arruebarrena (whom I'll call EAb for now) to a 5-year, $25-million contract.
He's expected to begin the regular season in the minor leagues, but arrive in Los Angeles by summer to pair with Alex Guerrero, another Cuban free agent shortstop who is being moved to second base. Designated for assignment off the roster is SS/2B Justin Sellers.
-- The Yankees, hedging their bets on RHP David Robertson as their closer for this season, signed RHP Andrew Bailey to a minor league contract.
-- The Rockies have decided not to move OF Carlos Gonzalez from left field to center. That seems like a good non-move with a somewhat brittle player who's expected to be a vital cog in the offense along with similarly injury-prone SS Troy Tulowitzki. The plan is to give Drew Stubbs most of the playing time in center. Brandon Barnes is another right-handed-batting candidate. Lefty-swinging Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson could be in the mix. Based on last season's performance, I would expect Blackmon to play a majority of the games.
-- Cardinals LHP Jaime Garcia was scheduled to return Sunday to St. Louis for an MRI exam on his left shoulder. He underwent season-ending surgery last May.
-- The Giants signed free-agent fringe OF Tyler Colvin to a minor league contract. He can compete in an unsettled outfield, and receive some tips from a newly acquired spring-training instructor, Barry Bonds. The PED wheel just keeps spinning.
-- RHP Yu Darvish apparently would start three openers for the Rangers -- their first intrasquad game Monday; their Cactus League opener Thursday against the co-tenant Royals in Surprise, Ariz., and their regular-season opener against the Phillies March 31 at whatever Rangers Ballpark is being called this year. For at least the first two, he won't be throwing to C Geovany Soto. He'll miss three weeks after undergoing surgery to remove a bone from his left ankle.
* * *
Basketball. Unless my team can make about a bajillion out of a bajillion and one free throws today, I'll do no better than 7-1 this week. And if my guys are cold from the field, I could drop to 6-2. Still looks like a 14-game lead with 24 to play.
He's in Florida now for a physical with the Orioles, with whom he has reportedly agreed on a 1-year contract for $8 million. Meanwhile, the Rangers are probably glad to have a supplemental draft pick instead of having to pay the $14.1 million it would have taken if Cruz had accepted their tender.
I think for a year or two, Camden Yards can hide Cruz's deficiencies. He still has enough power, even if not enhanced by PEDs, to hit home runs there. And right field is small enough to keep him from getting into too much trouble if he plays in the outfield.
-- The Dodgers are looking at a potential all-Cuban middle infield. They have signed SS Erisbel Arruebarrena (whom I'll call EAb for now) to a 5-year, $25-million contract.
He's expected to begin the regular season in the minor leagues, but arrive in Los Angeles by summer to pair with Alex Guerrero, another Cuban free agent shortstop who is being moved to second base. Designated for assignment off the roster is SS/2B Justin Sellers.
-- The Yankees, hedging their bets on RHP David Robertson as their closer for this season, signed RHP Andrew Bailey to a minor league contract.
-- The Rockies have decided not to move OF Carlos Gonzalez from left field to center. That seems like a good non-move with a somewhat brittle player who's expected to be a vital cog in the offense along with similarly injury-prone SS Troy Tulowitzki. The plan is to give Drew Stubbs most of the playing time in center. Brandon Barnes is another right-handed-batting candidate. Lefty-swinging Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson could be in the mix. Based on last season's performance, I would expect Blackmon to play a majority of the games.
-- Cardinals LHP Jaime Garcia was scheduled to return Sunday to St. Louis for an MRI exam on his left shoulder. He underwent season-ending surgery last May.
-- The Giants signed free-agent fringe OF Tyler Colvin to a minor league contract. He can compete in an unsettled outfield, and receive some tips from a newly acquired spring-training instructor, Barry Bonds. The PED wheel just keeps spinning.
-- RHP Yu Darvish apparently would start three openers for the Rangers -- their first intrasquad game Monday; their Cactus League opener Thursday against the co-tenant Royals in Surprise, Ariz., and their regular-season opener against the Phillies March 31 at whatever Rangers Ballpark is being called this year. For at least the first two, he won't be throwing to C Geovany Soto. He'll miss three weeks after undergoing surgery to remove a bone from his left ankle.
* * *
Basketball. Unless my team can make about a bajillion out of a bajillion and one free throws today, I'll do no better than 7-1 this week. And if my guys are cold from the field, I could drop to 6-2. Still looks like a 14-game lead with 24 to play.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Oh, my aching back! -- Harrison hurting again
I think I forgot to mention in my previous post about Rangers LHP Matt Harrison.
He's a bit of an enigma. Harrison worked very hard to get himself back into shape -- I remember once referring to him as a "pudgeball" -- and having two very good seasons. Armed with a new contract, he followed those with two starts and two back surgeries in 2013.
Now, Harrison is back in Texas for an MRI exam Monday on his lower back. He also complained of neck pain before the Rangers excused him from a bullpen session in Surprise, Ariz.
Can he come back? Could his problem be something congenital that wasn't picked up in any physical?
Unless Harrison and RHP Neftali Feliz can come back from their succession of injuries, Texas' epic Mark Teixeira trade will lose some of its luster.
Also returning to Texas to see a specialist was C Geovany Soto, who has a sore left Achilles tendon. If he's out for any length of time, that could benefit C J.P. Arencibia, acquired from the Blue Jays.
Harrison could join LHP Derek Holland on the disabled list for an extended period. One pitcher the Rangers could have considered as a stopgap might not be available. LHP Chris Capuano reportedly is in Fort Myers, Fla., for a physical exam preliminary to signing a contract with the Red Sox. He's ticketed for Boston's bullpen. The Chris Capuano Brewers bobble-heads (two different models) above my desk were shaking their head, urging him to hold out for a better deal somewhere.
A former Ranger, OF Nelson Cruz, reportedly is close to signing a contract with the Orioles. Baltimore did lose on waivers a player acquired from the Twins. The Blue Jays claimed RHP Liam Hendriks on waivers.
There's not much real news coming out of spring training yet. Expect more next week when exhbition games begin.
For now, you'll have to be content with "the ball looks good coming out of Soandso's hand," or "Somebodyelse looks good at his new position. He fielded a ground ball."
Here are a couple of actual items that illustrate what you can expect to see for the next few days. In the Cubs' camp, a dude named Javier Baez hit a home run that broke a car window. In the parking lot. During batting practice. Wake me up when he breaks a car window on Waveland Avenue. In an actual game. Also, an mlb.com headline indicated that Astros RHP Lucas Harrell hopes for a "bounce-back" season. Shouldn't that be a "bounce" season? Has he ever really been there as an established major leaguer?
* * *
Basketball. Judging by tonight's scores, some NBA teams might still be in All-Star Game mode.
No matter. Four of my players had double doubles, with Carmelo Anthony going off again for 44 points and Victor Oladipo coming oh, so close, to a triple double with 30 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds. Rookie of the Year, anyone?
Most important, my guys stepped up at the foul line, hitting 29 of 32 (91%). They couldn't do much about my opponent's four-corners stall, which resulted in his two active players going 0 for 0 at the line and still holding a lead of about .034 in free throw percentage. If they keep up that inactivity, Team Fresh Prints might have to go 64 for 64 these last two days of the week to have a chance at an 8-0 week.
Right now, it appears that my lead would be 14 games going into the final three weeks (24 games).
He's a bit of an enigma. Harrison worked very hard to get himself back into shape -- I remember once referring to him as a "pudgeball" -- and having two very good seasons. Armed with a new contract, he followed those with two starts and two back surgeries in 2013.
Now, Harrison is back in Texas for an MRI exam Monday on his lower back. He also complained of neck pain before the Rangers excused him from a bullpen session in Surprise, Ariz.
Can he come back? Could his problem be something congenital that wasn't picked up in any physical?
Unless Harrison and RHP Neftali Feliz can come back from their succession of injuries, Texas' epic Mark Teixeira trade will lose some of its luster.
Also returning to Texas to see a specialist was C Geovany Soto, who has a sore left Achilles tendon. If he's out for any length of time, that could benefit C J.P. Arencibia, acquired from the Blue Jays.
Harrison could join LHP Derek Holland on the disabled list for an extended period. One pitcher the Rangers could have considered as a stopgap might not be available. LHP Chris Capuano reportedly is in Fort Myers, Fla., for a physical exam preliminary to signing a contract with the Red Sox. He's ticketed for Boston's bullpen. The Chris Capuano Brewers bobble-heads (two different models) above my desk were shaking their head, urging him to hold out for a better deal somewhere.
A former Ranger, OF Nelson Cruz, reportedly is close to signing a contract with the Orioles. Baltimore did lose on waivers a player acquired from the Twins. The Blue Jays claimed RHP Liam Hendriks on waivers.
There's not much real news coming out of spring training yet. Expect more next week when exhbition games begin.
For now, you'll have to be content with "the ball looks good coming out of Soandso's hand," or "Somebodyelse looks good at his new position. He fielded a ground ball."
Here are a couple of actual items that illustrate what you can expect to see for the next few days. In the Cubs' camp, a dude named Javier Baez hit a home run that broke a car window. In the parking lot. During batting practice. Wake me up when he breaks a car window on Waveland Avenue. In an actual game. Also, an mlb.com headline indicated that Astros RHP Lucas Harrell hopes for a "bounce-back" season. Shouldn't that be a "bounce" season? Has he ever really been there as an established major leaguer?
* * *
Basketball. Judging by tonight's scores, some NBA teams might still be in All-Star Game mode.
No matter. Four of my players had double doubles, with Carmelo Anthony going off again for 44 points and Victor Oladipo coming oh, so close, to a triple double with 30 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds. Rookie of the Year, anyone?
Most important, my guys stepped up at the foul line, hitting 29 of 32 (91%). They couldn't do much about my opponent's four-corners stall, which resulted in his two active players going 0 for 0 at the line and still holding a lead of about .034 in free throw percentage. If they keep up that inactivity, Team Fresh Prints might have to go 64 for 64 these last two days of the week to have a chance at an 8-0 week.
Right now, it appears that my lead would be 14 games going into the final three weeks (24 games).
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Peace of mind could help Chapman's performance
There's some baseball news today. Not necessarily real meaty stuff for fantasy purposes, but there could be some clues to mental states that could affect performance.
The Reds and LHP Aroldis Chapman agreed to avoid arbitration by splitting the difference between their requested salary figures with a $5-million contract for this season. The amicable settlement could do a lot more for the closer's pitching than the extra $400,000 he'll receive.
Some day the Drew brothers could become a case study for young athletes who've been told how good they are and had their butts kissed for so long that they believe they're better than they are and somehow above the fray of petty matters such as living a life. Of course, nobody ever listens to such cautionary tales.
Since J.D. Drew turned down a contract offer as a No. 1 overall draft pick and signed as the next year's No. 1, he and SS Stephen Drew have had a litany of issues in negotiations, scads of games missed because of injuries, travels from team to team and potentially shorter careers than expected. (For the purposes of this discussion, Tim Drew doesn't count because he was never very highly regarded or effective.)
On the other hand, the Drews and their agents got their money up front, so perhaps the brothers don't care that they had to go to work only for a few years.
The latest Stephen Drew news is that he still hasn't signed. MLB.com pointed out that the primary unsigned free agents such as Drew, OF Nelson Cruz, DH Kendrys Morales and RHPs Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana haven't signed because they would cost the team signing them a draft pick. The baseball draft is hardly an exact science, so second-round, supplementary and even first-round picks aren't a given. But all five players in this paragraph are flawed in their own ways.
1B Yuniesky Betancourt is off the free-agent market. He has signed a guaranteed one-year contract to play in Japan. That sounds like a definite winner, doesn't it? It's not as if he'll face a steady diet of off-speed pitches that he can't hit over there. Or will he?
* * *
Basketball. My lead is down to 6-2 this week. I'm now behind in rebounds and assists. I could have as many as eight players in the lineup Wednesday to seven for my opponent. He appears to have a lot of rebounders in the lineup. Ricky Rubio should be able to help me in assists, and I hope that rebounder Joakim Noah has recovered from the illness that caused him to miss his last game.
* * *
Hockey. Lost half a point in both power-play points and goalie wins. My only goalie in action Tuesday was Tim Thomas. His former team, the Bruins, roughed him up for six goals, dropping me even farther into last place in GAA and save percentage. For the record, Thomas didn't win either. It's a good thing I didn't use Jonas Gustavsson; he gave up five goals and lost.
The Reds and LHP Aroldis Chapman agreed to avoid arbitration by splitting the difference between their requested salary figures with a $5-million contract for this season. The amicable settlement could do a lot more for the closer's pitching than the extra $400,000 he'll receive.
Some day the Drew brothers could become a case study for young athletes who've been told how good they are and had their butts kissed for so long that they believe they're better than they are and somehow above the fray of petty matters such as living a life. Of course, nobody ever listens to such cautionary tales.
Since J.D. Drew turned down a contract offer as a No. 1 overall draft pick and signed as the next year's No. 1, he and SS Stephen Drew have had a litany of issues in negotiations, scads of games missed because of injuries, travels from team to team and potentially shorter careers than expected. (For the purposes of this discussion, Tim Drew doesn't count because he was never very highly regarded or effective.)
On the other hand, the Drews and their agents got their money up front, so perhaps the brothers don't care that they had to go to work only for a few years.
The latest Stephen Drew news is that he still hasn't signed. MLB.com pointed out that the primary unsigned free agents such as Drew, OF Nelson Cruz, DH Kendrys Morales and RHPs Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana haven't signed because they would cost the team signing them a draft pick. The baseball draft is hardly an exact science, so second-round, supplementary and even first-round picks aren't a given. But all five players in this paragraph are flawed in their own ways.
1B Yuniesky Betancourt is off the free-agent market. He has signed a guaranteed one-year contract to play in Japan. That sounds like a definite winner, doesn't it? It's not as if he'll face a steady diet of off-speed pitches that he can't hit over there. Or will he?
* * *
Basketball. My lead is down to 6-2 this week. I'm now behind in rebounds and assists. I could have as many as eight players in the lineup Wednesday to seven for my opponent. He appears to have a lot of rebounders in the lineup. Ricky Rubio should be able to help me in assists, and I hope that rebounder Joakim Noah has recovered from the illness that caused him to miss his last game.
* * *
Hockey. Lost half a point in both power-play points and goalie wins. My only goalie in action Tuesday was Tim Thomas. His former team, the Bruins, roughed him up for six goals, dropping me even farther into last place in GAA and save percentage. For the record, Thomas didn't win either. It's a good thing I didn't use Jonas Gustavsson; he gave up five goals and lost.
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Choo-Choo train good for a short trip
The baseball world is abuzz with information about the Rangers' signing of OF Shin-soo Choo.
One report even said that his signing puts Texas on top of the American League.
And if he can play close to the way he did this year in the National League, Choo could be enough to make the Rangers favorites. Definitely a playoff team, if their pitching holds up.
I don't look at the benefit of this signing so much as having Choo replace A) David Murphy, B) Nelson Cruz, C) Craig Gentry, D) Jeff Baker, E) Engel Beltre, F) All of the above in the outfield as having him replace Ian Kinsler at the top of the lineup.
Now Kinsler wasn't the worst leadoff man in the majors. His 2013 on-base percentage was .344 -- not All-Star territory, but above a replacement player.
Don't take this as thinking I don't like what Kinsler can bring to a team -- I've already endorsed Texas' acquiring 1B Prince Fielder in trade for Kinsler -- but it seems reasonable that in Fielder and Choo, the Rangers are better off than if they'd kept Kinsler and Cruz.
Choo's on-base percentage for Cincinnati this year was .423. That's 80 percentage points above Kinsler's, or over 600 plate appearances an additional 48 times on base. About once every three games. And it's not unreasonable to think that those times on base could translate to 10 or even 20 more runs. In fact, in 98 more plate appearances than Kinsler, Choo scored 22 more runs. We can give Kinsler a bit of a pass because of all the games he had the ineffective Murphy batting after him, while Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were coming up for the Reds.
Beyond the on-base percentage -- and isn't there a beyond with just about every baseball statistic? -- Choo has it all over Kinsler.
Sure, Choo struck out more often: 133 times to 59. In part, that was because Kinsler didn't wait around for three strikes. He drew 51 walks -- a good, near 1:1 ratio -- but Choo took a whopping 112 free passes.
Of course, those walks showed up in the on-base percentage. But even deeper, we can go to a stat listed as GO/AO, ground outs/air outs. It might be because I saw Kinsler play so often, but I can't imagine a player who would pop up more often.
His GO/AO was 0.72. Is that good or bad? you might ask. Of 140 players who qualified for major league batting titles last season, Kinsler was 135th. Choo was 23rd at 1.50, so he was putting the ball on the ground for outs more than twice as often as Kinsler.
Another way to look at it. Kinsler (and Choo) made 400-some outs in 2013. That's roughly 267 outs in the air, which can be at-bats as empty as strikeouts, compared to 133 or so for Choo. But what about sacrifice flies? Fly balls can be valuable. Possibly, but Kinsler had seven sacrifice flies, compared to two by Choo. That still leaves something like 129 more unproductive outs by Kinsler.
Now you're saying, "But ground balls can be unproductive too." True. They also can move runners from first to second, from second to third and even third to home more easily. There is no sacrifice ground out stat to give batters credit for driving in a run, so we don't really know who does that more often. A ground ball is also more likely to result in an error than a ball in the air.
The trump card for ground ball haters in the double play. Certainly, those GO/AO leaders wipe out teammates in doubly damaging double plays more often. True, among the top 10 in GO/AO were three players with 20 or more GIDP: David Freese, Billy Butler and Michael Young. Choo, on the other hand, grounded into just two DPs, and Kinsler seven.
It should be clear then that Choo himself reached base more frequently and most likely did a better job moving his teammates around the bases as well.
So why is this even an issue? Choo will be the greatest thing that ever happened to the Rangers. Where is the downside?
One possible downside is moving back to the American League. This year was Choo's only season in the NL. He had a good lineup with the Reds. Even the improved 2014 lineup in Texas isn't likely to be as good. And check out his K/W (strikeout/walk) ratio in '12, his last as an American League. He struck out 150 times, and walked 73. The 150 Ks aren't even his career high. So it's reasonable to expect some regression in AL parks with AL pitchers.
The improvement in his batting eye is an example of what are described as old-man skills. Another is an increase in the frequency of extra-base hits, and indeed in the last two seasons, Choo has had a little over 10% more doubles than in his first two years in the majors. A third is a logical decline in base stealing.
But, hey! Choo has had just five full seasons in the majors, so he can improve. He's what? 27? 28? Try 31. The records show that he's just 31 days younger than Kinsler. But my policy is to add a year to the age of every player with a birth certificate from a foreign country. It's just as likely that Choo is 11 months older.
Thus, it's no surprise that he is exhibiting old-man skills. His 20 stolen bases this year were within 10% of his best full season, but his 11 times caught stealing were four more than in any other season. That's why I'm not expecting 20 this year. By the way, Kinsler's base-stealing rate declined from 30-for-34 in 2011, to 21-for-30 last season and 15-for-26 this year.
Another of my rules of thumb is that I consider the age-31 season as a plateau, before a player's decline really kicks in but not necessary a drop from the level he established during ages 27-30.
That's the real rub in signing Choo for seven years and $130 million.
In 2014, he can be very close to the player he was this year. A 5% decline, or maybe even 10%, would be better than what Texas got from Kinsler in 2013.
Similarly, 2015 might not be much worse.
But with five more years with an average of $18 million-$19 million, how can he bring the return on investment a major league team would like? Seems unlikely.
Another limiting factor is the eyeball test. Choo has never been a Slim Jim, but he looked pudgier this year than before. Will his conditioning improve now that he'll be set for life?
That conditioning could be an issue within a few years. Fielder is two years younger, but his days as a full-time DH seem closer than Choo's. And if Choo becomes too immobile to play in the outfield, how would he DH? The Rangers would have to pay a bunch of money to help pay his contract as a DH somewhere else if he is traded.
Perhaps all Texas' management wants is a better path to winning its first World Series. Choo could help deliver that. But by the time his contract ends and he's 38 (or 39), that championship would be a distant memory. It won't help that Adrian Beltre, Geovany Soto, probably Fielder and possibly Yu Darvish would also be long gone by then. Which again is why the Rangers are making these moves NOW.
Good short-term move, but far too long a contract for an aging player.
That's what I said about the Mariners and the Robinson Cano signing, except that I can't envision how Seattle was only one player away from winning in '14.
* * *
Expending these words and the time to research the information led to a couple of side issues.
1. Another benefit too the Choo signing is that it increases the likelihood that the Rangers could trade Engel Beltre while he still has some value and before he's overexposed. I think his defense is overrated, he won't hit lefties and he still has a lot of growing up to do before he could be considered a reliable player and teammate. A team needing speed and outfield defense, distracted by some empty batting averages on Beltre's resume, could cough up a helpful reliever or even a potential bottom-of-the-rotation starter in return.
2. My analysis of the Cano and Choo signings points out that Seattle and Texas don't seem overly concerned about outfield defense down the road, but willing to entrust it to players with declining mobility.
Perhaps it's a coincidence, but I noticed that the last seven players on the 2013 GO/AO list were from AL West teams: Houston's Chris Carter, Kinsler, Seattle's Justin Smoak and Kurt Seager, and Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes, Jed Lowrie and Brandon Moss. Perhaps the NL West didn't get the memo saying that baseball was moving away from sluggers toward pitching and defense. Or perhaps the Angels took the memos out of the other teams' mailboxes. Or, given the fact that the Athletics -- a well managed team attuned to sabremetrics and making very few mistakes these days -- put three of those seven players in important offensive roles, once again they may know more than we (I) do.
I also like Seager. You probably still can hear reverberations from his line drives at Rangers Ballpark.
One report even said that his signing puts Texas on top of the American League.
And if he can play close to the way he did this year in the National League, Choo could be enough to make the Rangers favorites. Definitely a playoff team, if their pitching holds up.
I don't look at the benefit of this signing so much as having Choo replace A) David Murphy, B) Nelson Cruz, C) Craig Gentry, D) Jeff Baker, E) Engel Beltre, F) All of the above in the outfield as having him replace Ian Kinsler at the top of the lineup.
Now Kinsler wasn't the worst leadoff man in the majors. His 2013 on-base percentage was .344 -- not All-Star territory, but above a replacement player.
Don't take this as thinking I don't like what Kinsler can bring to a team -- I've already endorsed Texas' acquiring 1B Prince Fielder in trade for Kinsler -- but it seems reasonable that in Fielder and Choo, the Rangers are better off than if they'd kept Kinsler and Cruz.
Choo's on-base percentage for Cincinnati this year was .423. That's 80 percentage points above Kinsler's, or over 600 plate appearances an additional 48 times on base. About once every three games. And it's not unreasonable to think that those times on base could translate to 10 or even 20 more runs. In fact, in 98 more plate appearances than Kinsler, Choo scored 22 more runs. We can give Kinsler a bit of a pass because of all the games he had the ineffective Murphy batting after him, while Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were coming up for the Reds.
Beyond the on-base percentage -- and isn't there a beyond with just about every baseball statistic? -- Choo has it all over Kinsler.
Sure, Choo struck out more often: 133 times to 59. In part, that was because Kinsler didn't wait around for three strikes. He drew 51 walks -- a good, near 1:1 ratio -- but Choo took a whopping 112 free passes.
Of course, those walks showed up in the on-base percentage. But even deeper, we can go to a stat listed as GO/AO, ground outs/air outs. It might be because I saw Kinsler play so often, but I can't imagine a player who would pop up more often.
His GO/AO was 0.72. Is that good or bad? you might ask. Of 140 players who qualified for major league batting titles last season, Kinsler was 135th. Choo was 23rd at 1.50, so he was putting the ball on the ground for outs more than twice as often as Kinsler.
Another way to look at it. Kinsler (and Choo) made 400-some outs in 2013. That's roughly 267 outs in the air, which can be at-bats as empty as strikeouts, compared to 133 or so for Choo. But what about sacrifice flies? Fly balls can be valuable. Possibly, but Kinsler had seven sacrifice flies, compared to two by Choo. That still leaves something like 129 more unproductive outs by Kinsler.
Now you're saying, "But ground balls can be unproductive too." True. They also can move runners from first to second, from second to third and even third to home more easily. There is no sacrifice ground out stat to give batters credit for driving in a run, so we don't really know who does that more often. A ground ball is also more likely to result in an error than a ball in the air.
The trump card for ground ball haters in the double play. Certainly, those GO/AO leaders wipe out teammates in doubly damaging double plays more often. True, among the top 10 in GO/AO were three players with 20 or more GIDP: David Freese, Billy Butler and Michael Young. Choo, on the other hand, grounded into just two DPs, and Kinsler seven.
It should be clear then that Choo himself reached base more frequently and most likely did a better job moving his teammates around the bases as well.
So why is this even an issue? Choo will be the greatest thing that ever happened to the Rangers. Where is the downside?
One possible downside is moving back to the American League. This year was Choo's only season in the NL. He had a good lineup with the Reds. Even the improved 2014 lineup in Texas isn't likely to be as good. And check out his K/W (strikeout/walk) ratio in '12, his last as an American League. He struck out 150 times, and walked 73. The 150 Ks aren't even his career high. So it's reasonable to expect some regression in AL parks with AL pitchers.
The improvement in his batting eye is an example of what are described as old-man skills. Another is an increase in the frequency of extra-base hits, and indeed in the last two seasons, Choo has had a little over 10% more doubles than in his first two years in the majors. A third is a logical decline in base stealing.
But, hey! Choo has had just five full seasons in the majors, so he can improve. He's what? 27? 28? Try 31. The records show that he's just 31 days younger than Kinsler. But my policy is to add a year to the age of every player with a birth certificate from a foreign country. It's just as likely that Choo is 11 months older.
Thus, it's no surprise that he is exhibiting old-man skills. His 20 stolen bases this year were within 10% of his best full season, but his 11 times caught stealing were four more than in any other season. That's why I'm not expecting 20 this year. By the way, Kinsler's base-stealing rate declined from 30-for-34 in 2011, to 21-for-30 last season and 15-for-26 this year.
Another of my rules of thumb is that I consider the age-31 season as a plateau, before a player's decline really kicks in but not necessary a drop from the level he established during ages 27-30.
That's the real rub in signing Choo for seven years and $130 million.
In 2014, he can be very close to the player he was this year. A 5% decline, or maybe even 10%, would be better than what Texas got from Kinsler in 2013.
Similarly, 2015 might not be much worse.
But with five more years with an average of $18 million-$19 million, how can he bring the return on investment a major league team would like? Seems unlikely.
Another limiting factor is the eyeball test. Choo has never been a Slim Jim, but he looked pudgier this year than before. Will his conditioning improve now that he'll be set for life?
That conditioning could be an issue within a few years. Fielder is two years younger, but his days as a full-time DH seem closer than Choo's. And if Choo becomes too immobile to play in the outfield, how would he DH? The Rangers would have to pay a bunch of money to help pay his contract as a DH somewhere else if he is traded.
Perhaps all Texas' management wants is a better path to winning its first World Series. Choo could help deliver that. But by the time his contract ends and he's 38 (or 39), that championship would be a distant memory. It won't help that Adrian Beltre, Geovany Soto, probably Fielder and possibly Yu Darvish would also be long gone by then. Which again is why the Rangers are making these moves NOW.
Good short-term move, but far too long a contract for an aging player.
That's what I said about the Mariners and the Robinson Cano signing, except that I can't envision how Seattle was only one player away from winning in '14.
* * *
Expending these words and the time to research the information led to a couple of side issues.
1. Another benefit too the Choo signing is that it increases the likelihood that the Rangers could trade Engel Beltre while he still has some value and before he's overexposed. I think his defense is overrated, he won't hit lefties and he still has a lot of growing up to do before he could be considered a reliable player and teammate. A team needing speed and outfield defense, distracted by some empty batting averages on Beltre's resume, could cough up a helpful reliever or even a potential bottom-of-the-rotation starter in return.
2. My analysis of the Cano and Choo signings points out that Seattle and Texas don't seem overly concerned about outfield defense down the road, but willing to entrust it to players with declining mobility.
Perhaps it's a coincidence, but I noticed that the last seven players on the 2013 GO/AO list were from AL West teams: Houston's Chris Carter, Kinsler, Seattle's Justin Smoak and Kurt Seager, and Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes, Jed Lowrie and Brandon Moss. Perhaps the NL West didn't get the memo saying that baseball was moving away from sluggers toward pitching and defense. Or perhaps the Angels took the memos out of the other teams' mailboxes. Or, given the fact that the Athletics -- a well managed team attuned to sabremetrics and making very few mistakes these days -- put three of those seven players in important offensive roles, once again they may know more than we (I) do.
I also like Seager. You probably still can hear reverberations from his line drives at Rangers Ballpark.
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Napoli getting higher salary than Beltran or Granderson
Lots going on, but this will be short-form because I don't have much time. Have to chip the ice off the car and hope I can make it to see the Stars and Flyers (featuring goalie Steve Mason) on the ice.
The biggest new news is the reported 3-year, $45-million contract between the Yankees and OF Carlos Beltran. Looks as if another aging outfielder, Ichiro Suzuki, could be looking for a new employer.
For an even bigger average annual salary, 1B Mike Napoli reportedly will be back with the Red Sox for 2 years and $32 million.
OF Curtis Granderson's new 4-year contract with the Mets is being reported at $60 million, also 15 per year.
In a minor Yankees move, they signed IF/OF/DH Kelly Johnson to a 1-year contract.
RHP Scott Feldman appears to be the Astros' ace by default, with a 3-year, $30-million contract. It will be nice to see him in Arlington more frequently, and not just because the Rangers might light him up.
Speaking of the Rangers, they reportedly are close to signing C J.P. Arencibia. Some home runs, but is Texas any better off with him than they could have been by re-signing much older C A.J. Pierzynski?
Another question: Will the Rangers re-sign OF Nelson Cruz, go for free-agent OF Shin-soo Choo or plan on unproven OF Michael Choice in left field this season. I'd expect anything short of Cruz or Choo (or possibly just Choo) to be considered in the Metroplex as another wasted off-season.
The position-player free-agent list beyond Choo and Cruz is very thin, and the list of available pitchers isn't a lot better: RHPs A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo and the tarnished star of Matt Garza.
Another report has OF Nate McLouth moving a bit south to play for the Nationals for 2 years at $10.75 million.
The Marlins continue to make near-the-back-page news. Their new acquisition reportedly is 1B/OF Garrett Jones for 2 years. They're losing RHP Ryan Webb to the Orioles for 2 years and $4.5 million. I know! I had to look to see what more than $2 million a year can buy for your bullpen. Well, Webb was 2-6 with a 2.91 ERA with 3 blown saves this year. That extended his save-less streak in the majors to five seasons, during which he was mostly hidden from view by the Padres and Marlins. He did have 3 saves in a minor league career that included a 5.06 ERA.
* * *
Hockey/basketball. Not a lot to report. My hockey team picked up half a point in ATOI, but fell six games behind the second-place team. My replacement for Jason Spezza is Tampa Bay's Valtteri Filppula. He's in today's lineup as the utility player. It's still 5-3 in my basketball-league series with 2 days remaining this week. I have the best chance to pick up a game in 3-point FGs or possibly FG percentage.
The biggest new news is the reported 3-year, $45-million contract between the Yankees and OF Carlos Beltran. Looks as if another aging outfielder, Ichiro Suzuki, could be looking for a new employer.
For an even bigger average annual salary, 1B Mike Napoli reportedly will be back with the Red Sox for 2 years and $32 million.
OF Curtis Granderson's new 4-year contract with the Mets is being reported at $60 million, also 15 per year.
In a minor Yankees move, they signed IF/OF/DH Kelly Johnson to a 1-year contract.
RHP Scott Feldman appears to be the Astros' ace by default, with a 3-year, $30-million contract. It will be nice to see him in Arlington more frequently, and not just because the Rangers might light him up.
Speaking of the Rangers, they reportedly are close to signing C J.P. Arencibia. Some home runs, but is Texas any better off with him than they could have been by re-signing much older C A.J. Pierzynski?
Another question: Will the Rangers re-sign OF Nelson Cruz, go for free-agent OF Shin-soo Choo or plan on unproven OF Michael Choice in left field this season. I'd expect anything short of Cruz or Choo (or possibly just Choo) to be considered in the Metroplex as another wasted off-season.
The position-player free-agent list beyond Choo and Cruz is very thin, and the list of available pitchers isn't a lot better: RHPs A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo and the tarnished star of Matt Garza.
Another report has OF Nate McLouth moving a bit south to play for the Nationals for 2 years at $10.75 million.
The Marlins continue to make near-the-back-page news. Their new acquisition reportedly is 1B/OF Garrett Jones for 2 years. They're losing RHP Ryan Webb to the Orioles for 2 years and $4.5 million. I know! I had to look to see what more than $2 million a year can buy for your bullpen. Well, Webb was 2-6 with a 2.91 ERA with 3 blown saves this year. That extended his save-less streak in the majors to five seasons, during which he was mostly hidden from view by the Padres and Marlins. He did have 3 saves in a minor league career that included a 5.06 ERA.
* * *
Hockey/basketball. Not a lot to report. My hockey team picked up half a point in ATOI, but fell six games behind the second-place team. My replacement for Jason Spezza is Tampa Bay's Valtteri Filppula. He's in today's lineup as the utility player. It's still 5-3 in my basketball-league series with 2 days remaining this week. I have the best chance to pick up a game in 3-point FGs or possibly FG percentage.
Monday, November 18, 2013
Dealing from strength
The baseball hot stove is heating up. In recent years, a lot of talk has been bubbling on the stove in Texas.
This winter's big issue is which middle infielder the Rangers will trade. Side issues are what can they get in return, how big the deal will be and how they might replace what they'll be giving up.
For my money, Texas would be giving up less by trading 2B Ian Kinsler than if they were to deal SS Elvis Andrus, swingman Jurickson Profar or Double-A 2B Rougned Odor. I'm leaving Double-A SS Luis Sardinas out of the mix because to me he seems the least advanced/talented of the group. But if a team would prefer him in a trade, I wouldn't hesitate to sell him high.
Kinsler is most expendable because he has virtually no upside, and all of the others have dynamic upsides.
I still think Andrus can hit for at least gap power, and his greatest value lies in his defense.
Profar didn't fare well in his spotty first pretty much whole season in the majors. He's not Mike Trout, but Profar will be an above-average fielder and a useful offensive player.
Odor is an overachieving scrapper. I'd say potentially a higher-end Jose Altuve.
Texas' No. 1 trade target seems to be Rays LHP David Price, the guy who kept the Rangers out of the playoffs in 2013.
The Rangers couldn't just trade Kinsler and call it a day. In order to trade him from an already shrunken offense, they'd have to make another deal to bring in a proven bat. It's quite likely that many of the scenarios Texas' front office has played out included Marlins OF Giancarlo aka Mike Stanton. Miami insists he is not on the market.
Thus, the Rangers might be more likely to look to free agency for a bat, and they won't find one with Stanton's raw power or upside. They'd probably have to settle for OF Carlos Beltran or 1B Justin Morneau.
Another possibility would be resigning RF Nelson Cruz, but he's also on the downside of his career. Or Texas could try to pry OF Jose Bautista away from the Blue Jays. It's an intricate puzzle. Every move seems to require a counter move.
We could see the Rangers make a honeycomb or matrix of deals. They believe -- as do a number of other organizations -- that they have nearly sure-fire prospects at just about every position.
From what I've seen of their farm system, it's not as dynamically productive as it has been during the past several years. But other organizations are enamored of the prospects from an organization that has brought along way more prospects than their own system has.
Another scenario is that Texas could be shut out in the trade and free agency markets, as it was for the most part a year ago. That didn't work too well last winter, so expect the Rangers to make even somewhat less advantageous deals than they'd like to have at least a chance of moving forward.
* * *
Just started reading a very interesting book that I've had for probably a decade. It's a SABR reprint of a 1925 book called "Batting," by F.C. Lane. I believe this was one of the bonus publications that SABR provides to its members along with its usual publications. As the editor of the old Baseball magazine, Lane interviewed many players during the first quarter of the 20th century. They're quoted with their opinions about batting.
One passage seems really relevant, given today's emphasis on defensive shifts. " ... In short, batting resolves to the brief but pointed epigram of Willie Keeler's when he said, 'Hit 'em where they ain't.' "'Where they ain't,' is something of a study in geography limited by the playing field and its immediate environs. There are certain zones of safety where the ball may be driven and allow the batter time to negotiate first, but these zones of safety can never be chartered, for they vary with the batter, with the opposing pitcher, with the ball field, even with the stage of the game."
That wasn't to say that teams hadn't developed shifts against certain hitters 90 or 100 years ago. Lane pointed out that opponents would overload the right side of their defense when lefty slugger Cy Williams came to bat. But clearly, today's computer capabilities weren't envisioned in 1925.
Even so, the idea of maximizing and customized defensive capabilities has been around for a century and it has taken most of that time to put the idea into effect.
* * *
Even before Monday night's game, I have won in one fantasy football league and lost in the other. I'm on a bit of a roll in the former, now 6-5 and I believe tied for fourth. The other league is going south, down to 4-7. Just 14 points from Peyton Manning, which just about equaled the total from the three RBs in my lineup. Bad day for Jordan Reed too.
* * *
My fantasy hockey team is pretty much static, still fourth by a comfortable margin, half a point out of third and not likely to finish first unless the current leader collapses totally. With plenty of room to grow with my goalies, I have made a trade offer to the owner who leads in GAA and save percentage. We'll see what happens there. By the way, the goalie I already picked up on waivers was Jean-Sebastien Giguere.
This winter's big issue is which middle infielder the Rangers will trade. Side issues are what can they get in return, how big the deal will be and how they might replace what they'll be giving up.
For my money, Texas would be giving up less by trading 2B Ian Kinsler than if they were to deal SS Elvis Andrus, swingman Jurickson Profar or Double-A 2B Rougned Odor. I'm leaving Double-A SS Luis Sardinas out of the mix because to me he seems the least advanced/talented of the group. But if a team would prefer him in a trade, I wouldn't hesitate to sell him high.
Kinsler is most expendable because he has virtually no upside, and all of the others have dynamic upsides.
I still think Andrus can hit for at least gap power, and his greatest value lies in his defense.
Profar didn't fare well in his spotty first pretty much whole season in the majors. He's not Mike Trout, but Profar will be an above-average fielder and a useful offensive player.
Odor is an overachieving scrapper. I'd say potentially a higher-end Jose Altuve.
Texas' No. 1 trade target seems to be Rays LHP David Price, the guy who kept the Rangers out of the playoffs in 2013.
The Rangers couldn't just trade Kinsler and call it a day. In order to trade him from an already shrunken offense, they'd have to make another deal to bring in a proven bat. It's quite likely that many of the scenarios Texas' front office has played out included Marlins OF Giancarlo aka Mike Stanton. Miami insists he is not on the market.
Thus, the Rangers might be more likely to look to free agency for a bat, and they won't find one with Stanton's raw power or upside. They'd probably have to settle for OF Carlos Beltran or 1B Justin Morneau.
Another possibility would be resigning RF Nelson Cruz, but he's also on the downside of his career. Or Texas could try to pry OF Jose Bautista away from the Blue Jays. It's an intricate puzzle. Every move seems to require a counter move.
We could see the Rangers make a honeycomb or matrix of deals. They believe -- as do a number of other organizations -- that they have nearly sure-fire prospects at just about every position.
From what I've seen of their farm system, it's not as dynamically productive as it has been during the past several years. But other organizations are enamored of the prospects from an organization that has brought along way more prospects than their own system has.
Another scenario is that Texas could be shut out in the trade and free agency markets, as it was for the most part a year ago. That didn't work too well last winter, so expect the Rangers to make even somewhat less advantageous deals than they'd like to have at least a chance of moving forward.
* * *
Just started reading a very interesting book that I've had for probably a decade. It's a SABR reprint of a 1925 book called "Batting," by F.C. Lane. I believe this was one of the bonus publications that SABR provides to its members along with its usual publications. As the editor of the old Baseball magazine, Lane interviewed many players during the first quarter of the 20th century. They're quoted with their opinions about batting.
One passage seems really relevant, given today's emphasis on defensive shifts. " ... In short, batting resolves to the brief but pointed epigram of Willie Keeler's when he said, 'Hit 'em where they ain't.' "'Where they ain't,' is something of a study in geography limited by the playing field and its immediate environs. There are certain zones of safety where the ball may be driven and allow the batter time to negotiate first, but these zones of safety can never be chartered, for they vary with the batter, with the opposing pitcher, with the ball field, even with the stage of the game."
That wasn't to say that teams hadn't developed shifts against certain hitters 90 or 100 years ago. Lane pointed out that opponents would overload the right side of their defense when lefty slugger Cy Williams came to bat. But clearly, today's computer capabilities weren't envisioned in 1925.
Even so, the idea of maximizing and customized defensive capabilities has been around for a century and it has taken most of that time to put the idea into effect.
* * *
Even before Monday night's game, I have won in one fantasy football league and lost in the other. I'm on a bit of a roll in the former, now 6-5 and I believe tied for fourth. The other league is going south, down to 4-7. Just 14 points from Peyton Manning, which just about equaled the total from the three RBs in my lineup. Bad day for Jordan Reed too.
* * *
My fantasy hockey team is pretty much static, still fourth by a comfortable margin, half a point out of third and not likely to finish first unless the current leader collapses totally. With plenty of room to grow with my goalies, I have made a trade offer to the owner who leads in GAA and save percentage. We'll see what happens there. By the way, the goalie I already picked up on waivers was Jean-Sebastien Giguere.
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