Showing posts with label Grant Balfour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Grant Balfour. Show all posts

Saturday, March 8, 2014

Pirates hitting, but will they join trend toward more steals?

I started this post late Friday night, figuring I could finish it Saturday morning. Well, it's now early Sunday morning. I'll just update what I wrote for the most part.
The Pirates again jumped on an opposing pitcher early Saturday, then held off the Rays to win 10-5. Pittsburgh scored six runs, four earned, against LHP Matt Moore in the first inning, even without CF Andrew McCutchen. C Russell Martin hit a three-run home run, his third this spring, against RHP Grant Balfour, who's supposed to be Tampa Bay's closer this season. The Bucs' final run came against another veteran reliever, RHP Joel Peralta.
Let me summarize some of the rest of the baseball news.
-- Free-agent RHP Ervin Santana reportedly is close to signing with the Blue Jays, but there also are indications that the Orioles could sign him to complete (?) an almost total overhaul of their rotation. One report said he had agreed to a 1-year, $14-million contract with Toronto, which would make Santana less expensive than Phillies RHP A.J. Burnett.
-- Cardinals 2B/3B Matt Carpenter signed a six-year contract for a minimum of $52 million, with an option for 2020. That's truly a contract with vision.
-- Diamondbacks RHP prospect Archie Bradley is 2-0 and hasn't allowed an earned run this spring. He pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings Saturday in a 5-2 victory over the Angels.
-- The Mariners hammered the Giants 18-3. SS Brad Miller hit his second homer of the spring. OF Michael Saunders also homered and drove in three runs.
-- White Sox LHP Jose Quintana left Saturday's game after facing just two batters. Diamondbacks OF Gerardo Parra hit a line drive off Quintana's lower left leg. He's expected to be held out of baseball activities at least for Sunday.
-- Mariners 2B Robinson Cano missed his third consecutive day Saturday because of root canal surgery.
-- Giants OFs Hunter Pence and Michael Morse are listed as day to day and are expected to miss Sunday's split-squad games because of injuries to Pence's left elbow and one of Morse's calf muscles.
-- Nationals RHP Doug Fister said he isn't concerned about the elbow inflammation that caused him to be scratched from starting Friday. Royals RHP Luke Hochevar might not have been concerned at first, either, but now he'll undergo Tommy John surgery and miss this season.
-- For openers: RHP James Shields will start for the Royals on Opening Day.
* * *
I made a crack a couple of days ago about how Oakland OF prospect Billy Burns could be the next John Cangelosi -- that is, a guy from 20-plus years ago who stole quite a few bases but couldn't do much else for a major league team.
I've also been doing some statistical studies, which show that scoring and power are down in the majors.
What I wasn't thinking was how those two pieces of information are interconnected.
Perhaps it took a feature I saw on how Reds OF Billy Hamilton has been bunting to try to get on base more often so he could use his speed to steal bases.
And I went back even farther, more than 50 years to 1962, to recall how Maury Wills revolutionized the running game with the Dodgers. That influence remained strong for most of the next 30 years, until steroids and power hitters began to take over the game.
Let's talk 2014 -- or definitely later in this decade, if the trends continue. With fewer baseballs flying out of parks and fewer runs being scored, teams will be looking to manufacture runs, as they did during the pitching-dominated '60s.
One way to manufacture runs is by stealing bases. So we can expect to see more steals. Hamilton seems ready this season if he can hit at all. Speedsters such as Burns and Delino DeShields Jr. would arrive later in the teens, if at all.
Will they and other base-stealers have increased value. As an aggregate, no. In Rotisserie (R) League scoring, there still are a finite number of points and dollars of value. More stolen bases mean less value for each steal. If teams do go toward Hamilton/Burns/DeShields-type players, we could see an influx of even more of them, as we did with players such as Vince Coleman, Willie Wilson and Rickey Henderson 30-40 years ago.
There will be more 50-base stealers. Each one of them will have less relative value from base-stealing than Jacoby Ellsbury did with his major league-high 52 bags last year.
That doesn't mean that you shouldn't go after such players. If there are, let's say, eight 50-stolen-base guys in the majors, you'll want one of them and not the ninth-best base stealer. What you won't want would be a bunch of high-power, zero-steals players.
* * *
Hockey. I had just two players active Friday night. The Texas Puckin Penguins lost half a point by dropping into a tie for second in power play points. On Saturday, my team dropped another half a point, to third place, in PPP, and lost half a point in wins. I'm down to 66. The fourth-place team added 1 1/2 points on its own, leaving my margin over that owner to 12 1/2 points.
The good news is that my players now have accumulated fewer games than the two teams ahead of me. I should be able to have more players in my lineup than they do during the last few weeks of the season. I doubt that would help me to move up even to second place.
* * *
Basketball. Team Fresh Prints managed to increase its lead to 6-2 after Thursday's games. Gerald Green would have been practically a one-man wrecking crew -- with 44 points and high totals in the two categories I needed most, 3-pointers and steals -- if his 55% field goal shooting hadn't been the worst of any of my players for the night. On Friday, my opponent had several more players in action than I did, and I fell behind in steals to lead just 5-3. I thought I had posted Friday's lineup after the Thursday game, but apparently not. I just noticed three active players on my bench, highlighted (or lowlighted, in this case) by Jose Calderon's 19 points.
I set my lineups for the final two days of this week. After Saturday, I'll waive two players who will be on the court that night, and grab two free agents so I'll have a full active roster of 10 on Sunday. I'm not going to tell you whom I'll add. Wouldn't want to jinx it or tip off anybody.
Saturday's games came and went, and my lead still is 5-3. I will have a full complement of 10 players Sunday, after re-signing free agents Jared Sullinger and Jodie Meeks to replace Boris Diaw and Marco Belinelli.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Consider the Rays' latest moves as positives

The Rays are having a good week.
They signed RHP Grant Balfour for $12 million to be their closer for the next two years.
That might sound familiar, because he has pitched for Tampa Bay before, but in a setup role. For the last three years, he was a closer -- with the Athletics.
Balfour almost had a contract this year with the Orioles, but he failed his physical. That fact and his age (36) could make the Rays' move a bit iffy. However, if you read these posts, you'll quickly learn how much respect I have for the Tampa Bay and Oakland organizations and their decision-making ability. Even more than I have for the Rangers' and ascending Pirates' organizations.
That respect is a reason why I also like the trade the Rays made with the Padres. Tampa Bay sent a couple of viable relievers, LHP Alex Torres and RHP Jesse Hahn, to San Diego for five players who haven't yet or haven't had a chance to prove their major league readiness.
The key player going to the Rays is 3B/2B Logan Forsythe. I saw him play at the University of Arkansas and in the Texas League. You may wonder why, with 3B Evan Longoria already on Tampa Bay's roster, the team would need Forsythe. But have you noticed Longoria's amount of time on the disabled list? And even if he could play every game this year, Forsythe would be around to play some second base, freeing 2B/OF Ben Zobrist (for whom I also have a ridiculous amount of respect) to spend more time in the outfield. That would add even more versatility to a pretty versatile team.
There also could be strength in the numbers of trading two players for five. Four of the five new players going to the Rays organization can be considered at best prospects. We know that not every prospect actually becomes successful in the majors. But what if two of the four among RHPs Brad Boxberger, Matt Lollis and Matt Andriese and 2B Maxx Tissenbaum turn out to be serviceable major leaguers? Or if even one becomes a contributor?
The only player among those four that I have seen much is Lollis, and he wasn't really impressive out of Double-A San Antonio's bullpen. Tissenbaum appears to be on a career track similar to ... Logan Forsythe's.
Which reminds me that the Giants avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal with 3B/SS Joaquin Arias. I'd rather have Logan Forsythe.
Another former Rays right-hander, Matt Garza, reportedly is close to a four-year, $52-million contract with the Brewers, who apparently didn't observe his work down the stretch with the 2013 Rangers.
The big signing, of course, was RHP Masahiro Tanaka's seven-year, $155-million contract with the Yankees. Again, if you've been reading this blog, you'll know this surprises me only in that he'll be making more than $20 million per season.
If you're really Jonesing for signings, you might even be interested in the fact that two righties found lacking as closers have new minor-league contracts, Jon Rauch with the Royals and David Aardsma with the Indians.
* * *
Basketball. Thursday night, I got 31 points but just six rebounds from Chris Bosh, and very little from Mo Williams. I'm still ahead 7-1 this week, trailing only in field goal percentage.
* * *
Hockey. In the Stars' 7-1 win over the Maple Leafs, even Brenden Dillon from my team picked up one of those good stats that I no longer talk about. I dropped half a point when the next-lowest team in goalie wins moved into a tie. Antti Raanta played in goal for me for the first time, but lost 2-1 to Minnesota. The worst part was that his save percentage was below .900. That's one stat where I could pick up a point or two in the standings by improving by a .001 or .002.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Balfour still in demand

Now that the Shin-soo Choo thoughts are off my chest, I'll catch up some on other baseball Hot Stove activity and update my running-in-place, if not futile, efforts in other fantasy sports.
RHP Grant Balfour's deal with the Orioles fell through because of something Baltimore didn't like about his physical exam, but other teams looking for a closer supposedly still are interested in him.
OF Carlos Beltran and the Yankees made his 3-year, $45-million contract official. No problems with his physical, but he did fade at the end of last season.That's not a good sign for a 36-year-old.
My recent posts have had a number of references to age. It's a huge factor in assessing player performance. I hope to write more about the topic, and hope to resurrect something I've done in the past, an age chart that will help you tell at a glance which players should be in optimum stages of their career, and which could be in danger zones.
RHP Brad Ziegler re-signed with the Diamondbacks with a contract that guarantees 2 years and $10.5 million.
The Twins signed C Kurt Suzuki for a year at $2.75 million. That makes it easier for them to use C Joe Mauer at first base and DH.
The Athletics avoided arbitration with 1B Daric Barton by signing him to a 1-year contract.
LHP Mark Mulder, whom you've probably seen wearing a business suit on ESPN, is attempting a comeback. He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008. Comebacks after such a long absence rarely, if ever, work out.
Aside from Balfour, the most significant current story is Japanese RHP Masahiro Tanaka. According to Baseball America, his team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles, is expected to decide by Christmas Day whether to post him and enable him to sign with a North American team. Tanaka was 24-0 (not a typo) with a 1.37 ERA in 27 starts this year. If he is posted, that will mean a lot of baseball writers sitting by the tree tweeting from their cell phones.
The Golden Eagles, by the way, also signed 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis to a 1-year contract.
Former Giants OF/1B Brett Pill has signed a 1-year contract to play in Korea next season.
* * *
Football.
In case you haven't been keeping up with your playoff scenarios ... An NFC team with at least 10 wins will not make the playoffs. It's possible that an 11-win team won't get in. At least every division winner will have a winning record. Every AFC division champ will have at least 10 wins, but it's conceivable that an 8-8 team would get the second wild card.
Important key: These are the teams with something to play for, either a playoff berth or better postseason seeding: Eagles, Cowboys, Bears, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers and I think Jets. This information is important to know for your fantasy lineup so that you can be aware of which players might be in action and not resting for the playoffs. The biggest problem is that you might not know for late games which teams have been eliminated or assured of playoff position.
Speaking of playoffs, it's official now that I'll be in the top division of the postseason playoffs for the AMFL, my scoring-only fantasy league. I'm still in third place, and possibly could move up to second by winning this week. A loss also could put me in fourth, but I have a two-game lead over the teams tied for fifth.
I'm ahead in the first week of my two-week consolation consolation playoff for seventh place in my scoring-plus-yardage ESPN league. I have a 65-47 lead with Frank Gore and the Niners' defense playing tonight. My opponent has K Phil Dawson going. In addition to being for seventh place in a 10-team league, this playoff is unsatisfying because my opponent's lineup includes two players who aren't even playing.
Another Important key: You can improve your position just by staying active longer than others who give up on your team. You also owe it to the other team owners to continue making an effort.
* * *
Hockey.Third place with 63 points, 8 1/2 out of second, 12 ahead of the fourth-place team. I have a full lineup going tonight. Even my bench players' teams are playing tonight. It appears that the NHL is taking Christmas Eve off. Henrik Zetterberg and Alexander Steen are injured. Dustin Penner, Brenden Dillon and Jean-Sebastien Giguere are my healthy scratches. The skaters are sitting primarily to keep my ATOI up. It's a very close competition for points in that category. My only defenseman with a negative plus/minus is Keith Yandle, but he also is averaging more than 23 minutes a game and had 13 power play points. Thomas Vanek is minus-2 but he's moving up. Somehow, I can't get my team plus/minus out of its rut. My goalies' season averages all are better than average, but they have been sliding lately. I'm hoping I can figure out an answer to this problem. Trade a defenseman for a goalie?
* * *
Basketball. Wrapped up a 5-3 victory last night. I was hoping for a good shooting night that could pick me up another win in field goal percentage, but that wasn't happening. I'm starting the new week with seven of my 10 lineup spots filled. I'm not going with Joe Johnson, who missed Friday's game because of a personal issue. If I have time -- there is Christmas shopping to do, you know -- I'll check before the Nets' game to see whether he's playing and if the personal matter has been resolved.
The good news is that I'm over .500 (32-31-1) after coming out of the draft, three weeks into the season, already 13 games under .500. I even moved up out of last place to fourth in the my division, but remained seventh overall in the 10-team league because a team from the other division passed me.
This week's opponent is the team directly ahead of me in my division. By winning 6-2, I could move into third place.


Thursday, December 19, 2013

Deals could benefit Rockies

There have a bunch of seemingly minor deals over the last couple of days, but some of them could have impacts in both fantasy and real baseball.
-- The Rockies gave up just LHP Josh Outman and middle infielder Jonathan Herrera to get OF Drew Stubbs from the Indians and LHP Franklin Morales and inconsequential minor league RHP Chris Martin from the Red Sox. It wasn't too long ago that Stubbs was a viable center fielder, with plenty of homers and a few homers. Someone in Colorado must like Morales, entering his second stint with the Rockies. Outman has shown some promise in years past, but hasn't extended his encouraging numbers over a full season.
-- In another trade, the Braves required versatile C/OF/1B Ryan Doumit for at least bench strength from the Twins for minor league LHP Sean Gilmartin.
-- The Astros, finally showing some creativity and ability to identify sleepers by trading SS Ryan Jackson, recently acquired on waivers from the Cardinals, to the Padres for 1B/OF Jesus Guzman. He is expected to compete for Houston's first base job but even more likely could be at least a right-handed-hitting DH. Guzman has a bat; Jackson has a glove. In the Texas League, Guzman was a far more impressive performer than Jackson. The downside is that Guzman arrived late in the majors and won't have a very long shelf life. But the Astros didn't have Jackson long enough to miss him and essentially acquired a needed bat for nothing.
-- Another good move, countering some of the Mariners' earlier off-season deals, was resigning OF Franklin Gutierrez. He was injured this season, but if he's physically able he could recapture center field, play some right, be a fourth outfielder/DH or at the very least be a defensive replacement for the lumbering players who could end up in Seattle's outfield. Gutierrez is hardly an automatic out at the plate. The loser in the off-season wheeling and dealing seems to be Dustin Ackley. For his sake, he may be able to escape the Mariners and become a viable 2B/OF somewhere else with a fresh start. He's young enough that he should have some value that could bring back a useful player in a trade.
-- The Padres also reportedly signed RHP Joaquin Benoit for $14 million over the next two seasons, pending a physical.
-- The Diamondbacks reportedly have agreed to resign 1B/3B Eric Chavez for a year.
-- The Royals traded OF David Lough to the Orioles for DH/3B Danny Valencia. This is a lefty batter (Lough) for righty trade. Valencia has more power; Lough is far superior defensively.
-- The Orioles' reported signing of RHP Grant Balfour for 2 years and $14 million makes it a de facto trade of closers after the Athletics acquired RHP Jim Johnson from Baltimore. The O's could be gambling that 2B Jemile Weeks, obtained in the Johnson trade, can be a useful major leaguer. I have my doubts but if he succeeds that could be a bonus.
-- In other news, Rays SS Tim Beckham, a former No. 1 draft pick, underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL in a knee. That means he wouldn't be back until somewhere between June and August. I predict that you'll soon hear he'll be ready at the All-Star break, a magical time when so many players seem to heal. And as the break keeps growing, that becomes even more possible.
* * *
Hockey. I seem to be stuck on 63 1/2 points and in third place. I'll pick up a point or so in one category and drop one in another area. The main thing is that I have to avoid continued wrong decisions on goalies. I'm down to six points total in the three goalie categories. Even an average showing in those areas would add 10 1/2 points and put me in second place on most days. Plus/minus also remains a problem. I seem to be taking one step forward and two back.
* * *
Basketball. Through Wednesday, I had a slim 4-3-1 lead this week. Maintaining that would get me up to .500 at last, but I might have to do better to avoid dropping into eighth overall in the 10-team league. There's plenty of room and not a very long way to go to reach the top. Because so many teams are close, it becomes more important to make the right choices and especially to make lineup changes on time.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Meetings could also be a pre-climax

This year's winter meetings were indeed an anti-climax after a flurry of player moves during the week that preceded them. The meeting might also be a pre-climax to the few free-agent signings (headlined by Shin-soo Choo and Grant Balfour) and possible trades (David Price?) still to come.
The meetings came and went quickly -- I guess unless you went there and spent a lot of time hanging around the hotel lobby.
The moves, mostly minor, over the last couple of days:
-- Red Sox. Finalized their 2-year, $32-million resigning of 1B Mike Napoli. To make room on the 40-man roster, Boston designated OF Alex Castellanos for assignment.
-- Giants. Probably overpaid $5 million for 1 year of OF/1B Mike Morse, who's likely to become their left fielder.
-- Phillies. Signed RHP Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona and drafted RHP Kevin Munson from the Diamondbacks.
-- Tigers. Signed free-agent RHP Joba Chamberlain to a 1-year, $2.5-million contract. I know Detroit's bullpen has been terrible, but what has Chamberlain to show he's any better and justify a $2.5M price tag.
-- Marlins. Traded OF Justin Ruggiano to the Cubs for OF Brian Bogusevic. I actually like this move for Miami. I saw Bogusevic make the conversion from pitching, and believe he has more upside than Ruggiano, who may have just had the best season he ever will have. The Marlins also trolled the low-cost waters by taking shots at four players in the Rule 5 minor league draft.
-- Astros. Traded the first pick in the major league Rule 5 draft, LHP Patrick Schuster, to the Padres to complete the deal that sent RHP Anthony Bass to Houston Wednesday. Not really a big deal on either side. Schuster, who pitched four consecutive no-hitters in high school in 2009, had a 1.83 ERA as a reliever for the Diamondbacks' affiliate in the high Class A California League last season. But he doesn't throw hard, and that's still a long way from the majors.
-- Angels. Acquired LHP Brian Moran, a nephew of ex-major leaguer B.J. Surhoff, whom the Blue Jays had drafted from the Mariners organization, for $244,000 of international-player bonus money. Moran has Triple-A experience. That and left-handedness could earn him at least a few sips of coffee in the majors.
-- Blue Jays. They also were pretty busy in Thursday's minor league draft. One of the players they took was LHP Richard "Big Dick" Bleier from the Rangers organization.
-- Dodgers. Acquired another major league draft pick, RHP Seth Rosin, by sending cash to the Mets. Rosin was throwing low-90s fastballs in Double-A this year.
-- White Sox. Drafted and kept C Adrian Nieto from the Nationals organization. He batted .285 with 11 homers and threw out 33 per cent of base stealers in the high A Carolina League. It might be difficult for Chicago to keep Nieto on its roster for 2014, and also to send him to the minors without someone else claiming him.
-- Rockies. Drafted RHP Tommy Kahnle from the Yankees. He threw in the mid-90s, but without much control, in Double-A. Colorado needs pitching, so it wouldn't be a stretch to think Kahnle could be in its bullpen in '14.
-- Brewers. Drafted LHP Wei-Chung Wang from the Pirates. The Taiwanese pitcher was in the Rookie Class Gulf Coast League this year after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
-- Diamondbacks. In addition to losing a couple of players in the major league Rule 5 draft, Arizona claimed RHP Marcos Mateo, a former major leaguer, from the Cubs organization.
-- Orioles. Drafted 3B Michael Almanzar, the son of former major league pitcher Carlos Almanzar, from the Red Sox. Michael hit 16 homers in Double-A this year, but needs to refine his swing, selectiveness and defense. Baltimore also obtained C David Freitas from the Athletics organization as the final return for RHP Jim Johnson.
-- Braves. Avoided arbitration by resigning RHP Jordan Walden for 1 year and $1.49 million.
-- Pirates. Resigned SS Clint Barmes for 2014 for what ESPN reported as $2 million. Pittsburgh has not confirmed a reported agreement with free-agent RHP Edinson Volquez for a year and $5 million. That's despite his 5.71 ERA last season. Perhaps the Pirates think he could benefit, as their 2013 starters did, from their advanced metrics that led to successful placement of fielders. If nothing else, Volquez is cheaper than resigning RHP A.J. Burnett. Perhaps the Bucs could use some of the difference toward a contract with free-agent 1B James Loney, which could run to $30 million for 3 years. Or they could trade for a less-expensive 1B such as Seattle's Justin Smoak.

* * *

Overall, Thursday was a good night for my fantasy teams.
Football. In my scoring-plus-yardage league playoffs, I picked up a sub-standard 17 points from Peyton Manning, plus 14 for Keenan Allen and 3 for Danny Woodhead to take a 141-87 lead into the weekend. I'll have six more players in action; my opponent will have seven. In my scoring-only league, Allen's two TDs gave me a 12-6 lead over my opponent, whose points came from Manning's TD passes. Better yet, I still have six players to go; he has just four.
Hockey. A rare good night in plus/minus helped me gain 3 points. The second-place team lost 2 points, so I cut the gap to 7 1/2 points.
Basketball. I'm still leading 7-1, trailing only in 3-pointers. To that end, I picked up the Suns' Gerald Green to replace the next-to-worthless J.R. Smith.