The defensive All-Stars

The All-Star ballot I outlined in an earlier post took only batting into account.

I didn’t project a better-rounded team because there aren’t established metrics that everyone can agree on for fielding or baserunning.

Fielding has Range Factor, a fairly simple metric that tells part of the story. By merely dividing total chances by games (or 9 innings), you can get a measure of how much ground a player covers. That way you can differentiate a player who can get to a lot of batted balls from another who makes plays on balls hit close to him.

What it can’t tell you is whether a player’s Range Factor is higher because he has more balls hit in his direction than other players at his position. For example, if he’s a third baseman on a team with three or four left-handed starting pitchers and a large number of ground-ball pitchers.

Other people will tell you about DWAR, Defensive Wins Above Replacement, even after your eyes glaze over from boredom and an aversion to math.

First basemen and catchers don’t have measurable range. For 1Bs, I’m using DWAR. Catchers do have a viable measure, catcher’s ERA, in addition to DWAR.

By combining the available metrics, I came up with this list of defensive All-Stars that I voted for on a ballot in addition to my "true" offensive All-Stars:

American League

C Salvador Perez, Royals

1B Mike Napoli, Red Sox

2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox

3B Josh Donaldson, Athletics

SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

LF Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics

CF Leonys Martin, Rangers

RF Nick Markakis, Orioles

National League

C Yadier Molina, Cardinals

1B Matt Adams, Cardinals

2B Brandon Phillips, Reds

3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants

SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

LF Khris Davis, Brewers

CF Marcell Ozuna, Marlins

RF Jason Heyward, Braves

Three players are on both my offensive and defensive All-Star teams. I don't think you could come up with a good reason not to vote for Donaldson, Ramirez and Tulowitzki. OK, you're going to tell me Donaldson has more errors than anyone west of Pedro Alvarez, but at the time I checked the defensive metrics, Donaldson led major league third basemen in DWAR and the AL third sackers in Range Factor.

Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado and Athletics RF Josh Reddick would have been on my defensive ballot, but they're injured.

There were some ties. 

With only one metric, DWAR, at first base -- and precious little positive value, with just four 1B above 0.0 when I checked the numbers, there was little choice. Napoli tied with Kansas City's Eric Hosmer and Adams with San Diego's Yonder Alonso. I broke the tie the way Gold Glove voters seem to, by which is the better offensive player. In hindsight, I should have gone with Hosmer in the AL. He is a truly gifted defender. Don't talk to me about the Diamondbacks' Paul Goldschmidt. I haven't seen him in person very much, but when I have he has struck me as a good hitter but not a good fielder. At the time I looked at DWARs, Goldschmidt was at -0.5, or a greater negative value than any first baseman's positive value.

Speaking of defense, I just noticed that I made an error at second base in the NL. The Rockies' D.J. LeMahieu ranked ahead of Phillips in both RF and DWAR.

For the NL catcher, Molina and the Giants' Buster Posey had the same combined ranking. As a tiebreaker, I used DWAR, where Molina ranked higher, ahead of CERA, where Posey led the league.

Similarly, Ozuna's superior DWAR broke a tie with the Cardinals' Peter Bourjos and Heyward's major league-best DWAR in right field put him ahead of Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton. By the way, lost among some pretty good offensive statistics, Miami has probably the majors' best outfield defense. LF Christian Yelich also ranked second in the NL in the combined metrics.

* * *

I also looked for individual base-running metrics that could help in establishing a list of well rounded All-Stars, but there didn't seem to be enough evidence (call it small sample size) to make an educated guess about one player over another. Baseball Prospectus' base-running metric (positive and negative runs) includes five different types of runs -- Ground Advancement, Stolen Base, Air Advancement, Hit Advancement and Other Advancement.

There could be some merit in the larger sampling of team base-running runs. At the time I researched this post, the Royals led the majors with almost 10 runs, 50% more than the runner-up Mariners. The Cubs led the NL. By far, the worst teams were the Red Sox and Athletics, with the old and infirm Phillies last in the National League. 

KC's base-running prowess could be a reason why the Royals stayed in contention despite some atrocious hitting. Base-running appeared to be just another problem for Boston, another aging team with injury issues. I was surprised to see the Rangers among the AL base-running leaders, because even during their recent contending days they have made miserable mistakes on the bases. Texas was slightly above 0. I'm guessing the positive ranking could have been built on Stolen Base Runs -- with a trio of base stealers in Martin, Elvis Andrus and Alex Rios. 

There didn't appear to be much correlation between good base-running teams and teams high in the standings. Four teams currently in playoff position ranked in the top third in base-running, but three "playoff teams" ranked in the bottom third.

It's baseball somewhere

I realize that most of us are turning up the thermostat or sitting near the fireplace or piling another comforter on the bed.
But there is baseball being played.
Well, maybe not tonight, but tomorrow at least.
The Caribbean Series begins Wednesday at 3 p.m. EST in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico. that's when the Dominican Republic's representative, Toros del Este is scheduled to take on the Mexican Pacific League champions, Yaquis de Obregon.
Venezuela's representative, Caribes de Anzoatequi, is scheduled to take on the home country's (or commonwealth's) hope, Criollos de Caguas.
Puerto Rico's 14 Caribbean Series championships trail only the Dominican's 18. But Caguas has been a perennial contender on its home island, winning 15 league championships. The other three teams in this year's Caribbean Series are relative newcomers, with just five league titles among them -- two each for Los Toros and Los Yaquis, and only one for Caribes.
The competition remains a double round robin, with two games each day for six days and the team with the best record claiming the crown.
The Caribbean Series title could be decided before the teams even get to the last day, meaning that it could be a huge anticlimax compared to the winter league playoffs in each country.
The Mexican, Venezuelan and Puerto Rican series all went to their seven-game maximum. The shortest series was in the Dominican Republic, where the best-of-nine championship was a five-game sweep for Toros del Este.
Some playoff highlights:
-- In Mexico, the Yaquis' Marco Quevedo pitched seven innings, giving up only one run on a home run by Marshall McDougall, in a 5-2 Game 7 victory over Guasave. In a four-run fourth inning, Iker Franco hit a leadoff home run and Mario Valdez drove in two runs with a pinch-hit single.
-- In Venezuela, Mariners farmhand Luis Jimenez homered and drove in four runs as Caribes edged Aragua 8-7 in the deciding game. Josh Kroeger, a prospect turned hanger-on, showed his new Florida employers that he still can hit. He hit a three-run homer in Game 7 after leading the league with a .369 regular-season average. Keep an eye on him in the Marlins' camp. The Rockies' Jonathan Herrera went 3-for-4 and scored two runs for Caribes, and Endy Chavez, most recently in the Texas organization, had four hits including two doubles.
-- In Puerto Rico, Royals farmhand Rey Parano went 3-for-5, including a two-run single in the eighth inning, Caguas took Game 7 from Ponce 7-5. The Cubs' Lou Montanez had a homer and four RBI for the champs, who received clutch relief pitching from Eddy Ramos (4 1/3 hitless innings).
-- In the Dominican Republic, Los Toros completed their sweep with a 4-2 victory over Estrellas despite having just three hits. Two unearned runs made the difference.
Twelve days before pitchers and catchers report, there wasn't much major league news. The only transaction reported on mlb.com was that the Padres designated OF/1B Oscar Salazar for assignment.
The White Sox extended Alexei Ramirez's contract for four years and $32.5 million, with a $10-million option for a fifth year. Rockies RHP Rafael Betancourt received a far more modest extension, receiving an extra year for $4 million in 2012, with a mutual option for '13.
The Orioles have signed RHP Justin Duchscherer, limited to five games before undergoing surgery on his left hip last season, to a one-year contract for $700,000. That number would go up to $1.1 million if he makes the major league roster.
Despite winning 12 games (12-6, 4.64 ERA) for the White Sox last season, RHP Freddy Garcia could get no more than a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training for the Yankees. He's expected to compete for one of the last two spots in New York's underwhelming rotation with Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre and another veteran, RHP Bartolo Colon.
More tomorrow, when we'll say, "Play ball!" even if it is beisbol.