Monday, January 20, 2014

The Brewers have signed free-agent 1B/3B Mark Reynolds. Apparently, their 1,183 strikeouts last season weren't enough. Milwaukee actually was under the major league team average of 1,224.
In my brief analysis of the Rangers' left-handed pitching maneuvers, I failed to mention that Texas re-signed LHP Neal Cotts for their bullpen. In 2013, he had by far his best season since he helped the 2005 White Sox to a World Series championship. The Rangers used Cotts almost to the point of overuse, but he always seemed ready and almost always was effective. He could have an expanded role in their bullpen this year, possibly with LHP Rafael Perez becoming the one-batter lefty.
Former Pirates catchers on the move: the Mariners signed C John Buck -- whose only offensive skill, hitting home runs, is largely negated in Seattle -- and the Rockies re-signed C Michael McKenry, who came up through their farm system.
Expect the decibel and hot-air levels to rise in Cleveland this summer if OF Nyjer Morgan makes the Indians' roster.
The Royals signed RHP Brad Penny.
* * *
Basketball. My season-long rise has finally reached first place. My 7-1 record last week improved the season record to 58-37-1, or 53-19 since I finished the draft at 5-18-1. I'm first both in my division and overall.
This week's opponent is the only one I didn't defeat since the draft. We tied in Week 5. He's newly reduced from first place to second, three games behind.
For Monday night, I have seven players active and my opponent has six. I'm hoping to get off to a good start.
* * *
Football. I'm no longer active in fantasy football, but I think I'm currently in the money in the betting pool for which we received a hypothetical $1,000 bankroll at the beginning of the playoffs.
After the Broncos covered the spread Sunday -- adding $1,400 to the $1,600 with which I entered the conference-championship weekend -- I realized that I'd be better off losing my $100 bet on the 49ers. There were eight (of some 60) entries ahead of me, and three of them had hefty wagers on San Francisco. No Seahawks supporters had enough to pass me, so I finished the weekend sixth with $2,900.
I'm pretty sure the pool is paying six places, and by my calculations, I'm currently sixth.
The leader has $5,800, and would have to bet more than $4,600 to guarantee he would remain ahead of the two-man team in second place at $5,200 if both entries had winning bets.
I looked at a strategy of guaranteeing that I could maintain at least sixth place by wagering $2,000 to remain ahead of the three entries next behind me, all tied at $2,400. But then I realized that to do that I'd have to have a winning bet.
Pretty much I'd have to win my bet to stay in the money -- unless everybody picked a team that loses the Super Bowl. I'd expect most of the people ahead of me to bet the whole wad or close to it to maintain their position.
So the only viable strategy seems to be to bet all of it and hope that at least some of the five ahead of me lose their bet -- or possibly have gone light, trying to make sure they win something. The top two would be guaranteed a spot in the money if they didn't bet more than $900 and $300, but I'm figuring they'd both bet as much as they could to try to beat the other guy.
My chief concerns are the three ahead of me at $3,800; $3,400, and $3,000, as well as the $2,400 trio behind me.
If I win and double my money to $5,800, I'd finish no worse than sixth and could even have a chance to place first. I'm 6-3-1 against the spread so far in the playoffs. That means either that I should feel confident that I know what I'm doing and would make the correct choice, or that I've been lucky and the luck could run out this week, leaving me in the crowd at $0.
Hey, it's not my money anyway! I'd be out just the $10 entry fee. I couldn't make more than a few hundred dollars. My cup is half-full. I'll figure out a line sometime soon, before I look at the real line. Then when I compare it to the actual line, I'll hope the difference between my line and the real line is 4 points or more and bet accordingly. If I win, great. If not, no big deal. But I'm planning to win some money.
* * *
Hockey. Still third, still at 65 points, 8 behind the second-place team. The whole league standings seem to have standings, with no one gaining or losing more than a point or so. The fourth- through ninth-place teams remain within about 10 points top to bottom.
For Monday night, I have nine skaters active and potentially two goalies. I'm maintaining a positive outlook, and that's all I'll say about that.

No comments: