Monday, January 13, 2014

A-Rod did not get a raw deal

Today's big player move in baseball was that the Orioles signed OF Delmon Young to a minor league contract.
Beyond that, there were reports that OF Jack Cust and RHP Bobby Jenks are interested in making comebacks after being out of baseball. Really? I guess the money if whatever field they're working in isn't as good as a major league salary.
You might also have heard some things about sometime Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez.
The latest is that he wants to sue Major League Baseball and the MLBPA in federal court over his suspension.
I expect that will go essentially nowhere. An arbitrator ruled that Rodriguez broke baseball's PED rules, based largely on Anthony Bosch's testimony and text messages between them. The arbitrator said there was sufficient evidence indicating that A-Rod used banned substances on at least three occasions and that he tried to block MLB's investigation (think obstruction of justice) at least twice.
So where's the smoking gun? Or maybe the dripping syringe?
There doesn't have to be one. How often is there a smoking gun even in a murder case.
Baseball doesn't necessarily have to follow all of the rules that would apply in a court of law. The idea is that people have rights, but there is no "right to play major league baseball." There has been a long history of instances where players have been suspended or banned with less evidence than would convict them in court. Baseball banned eight Chicago White Sox for at least knowing but not reporting attempts to fix the 1919 World Series. More recently, Pete Rose received a lifetime ban for betting on baseball, possibly including his own team, when he managed the Reds.
In my mind, baseball has allowed the dispute over Rodriguez's suspension to last far too long. I'm not sure how the figure of 211 games was decided for his original suspension. Perhaps the idea was to keep him from playing in 2013 or '14. For some reason, he was allowed to postpone his hearing until the off-season. Those hearings usually are held and adjudicated within a matter of days or weeks.
He was allowed to play while the other players brought down in the scandal involving Bosch's PED lab sat out suspensions. And his suspension was reduced to 162 games.
There probably wasn't enough hard evidence to give A-Rod a three-strikes-and-you're-out lifetime ban. Still, he seems to be getting off easy. However, he seems to have the sense of entitlement that says the rules aren't meant to include him.
It seems likely that fans will not be very forgiving. They/we don't like the idea that star players can get off on a technicality, as Ryan Braun did the first time, or that they should be allowed to buy their way out of suspensions.
A side note, or perhaps a historical note: It seems clear that Rodriguez lied through his teeth (as so many other accused players have done) a few years back when he said that he had used PEDs only while he played for the Rangers and only before baseball banned such substances. His most recent run-in lends credence to Selena Roberts' reporting in Sports Illustrated and a note of embarrassment for Peter Gammons' softball interview with A-Rod that let him slide for a while.
* * *
Basketball. My 7-1 win for last week moved me into third place, just two games behind the league leader. My signing of Marco Belinelli to give me an extra guard Sunday didn't hurt my team, but it wasn't enough to complete a sweep by also winning in 3-pointers.
My original intention was that Belinelli would be a short-term acquisition, and that I would bring Taj Gibson back on to my roster. Then I did some homework.
The question was whether I should bring Gibson back for help up front and waive Belinelli, or possibly another newly acquired guard, Mo Williams.
First I compared their raw numbers to see which two of them had the best overall statistics. Gibson led, as we'd expect, in rebounds and blocks, and also in scoring. Williams had the highest free throw percentage and led, not unexpectedly, in assists and steals. Belinelli was best in just two categories, field goal percentage and 3-pointers.
However, when I assigned 3, 2 and 1 points in each category, with 3 being the highest, the totals were Gibson 15, Williams 16 and Belinelli 17.
The second step was determining in which categories my team needed the most help. Through Sunday, I was below average in four categories -- sixth in assists, seventh in points, tied for seventh in 3-pointers and ninth in field goal percentage. Look above and you'll see that Belinelli has had the best season in the team's worst categories, FG% and 3s. Williams leads the three-man group in assists.
Third, because it's my first year in a fantasy basketball league, I tried to determine how successful teams are set up. Are they oriented toward big men, or more toward speed and other small-man skills. My short, small-sample-sized, research showed that the team currently in first place had a 13-man roster including seven players each who qualify as guards or forwards, and three qualifying at center. My current roster, without power forward Gibson, has six guards, six forwards and a center.
The first-place team outnumbers mine at shooting guard and small forward. My roster has more power forwards than his does.
By any measure, it seems, my best move would be to keep Belinelli and Williams on the roster and leave Gibson in the free-agent pool.
* * *
Football. At last night's Islanders-Stars game, I tried to keep up with the playoff scoring through ESPN.com. I'd check the box score on occasion, and write down updated point totals for each player. I left the hockey game thinking I'd won 29-26 to reach the AMFL Super Bowl. I noted that Colin Kaepernick had thrown a touchdown pass and put down 3 points next to his name. pass. I wasn't looking at the touchdown runs because neither of us had Frank Gore. I was surprised when the commissioner wrote today that I'd lost 32-29. Then I saw Kaepernick's TD run. Oh, well.
Things are going better in the bet-a-thousand pool. I had three wins and a push -- at least the Saints didn't score again to beat the spread -- so my bankroll is up to $1,600. That might not help much. The current leader is at $3,700. I pretty much have to win the final three games, and make big bets on the right teams. Off the top of my head, I'll probably bet $1,000 on one team and $500 on the other. Maybe 8 on one and 7 on the other if I don't have a real favorite, so a split wouldn't kill me. Another possibility is going $1,400 and $100 if there's a team I reeeaallly like. I noticed that almost all of the teams currently leading had the 49ers, and they all put significantly more than my piddly $100 on San Francisco.
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Hockey. Last night I got to see the Islanders' Thomas Vanek in person, probably for the first time since 2005 but probably not going back as far as when he played for the University of Minnesota in the Frozen Four. He had two assists, and even better was plus-3. My team's plus/minus has been taking off lately. I'm up to plus-40 and just four behind the next team ahead of me. The leader is at 100 and something, so that's probably out of reach. I entered Monday still third with 66, and eight points out of second place. Again, first place seems ridiculously out of reach.
BTW, Vanek leads the Islanders in plus/minus (+8, I think), and he was well below zero when he arrived on the island after the Sabres traded him.

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