How Homer Bailey (Mike Minor?) could be like Jarrod Washburn

In 2003, when Lenny Pappano hired me for the opening of the dear departed fantasybaseballscout.com web site, one of the features we advertised was "How to Find a Cheap Starting Pitcher Who Can Pile Up the Wins."
I had done similar research a year earlier that pointed to Jarrod Washburn. He improved from 11-10 in 2001 to 18-6 as a 27-year-old in '02.
Thus was born, after I joined fantasybaseballscout.com, the Jarrod Washburn Award. The pre-season projected winner for 2003 was Jason Schmidt, who lived up to the spirit of the award by improving from 13-8 to 17-5.
There were other successes during the lifetime of fantasybaseballscout.com.
I'm reviving the Jarrod Washburn Award for this blog, and I'll post revivals of other remnants from fantasybaseballscout.com before this season begins.
Before I get into the methodology, here's the bottom line. The Jarrod Washburn Award for 2014 is ... drum roll ... Homer Bailey.
Honorable mention to Mike Minor and Alex Cobb. I'll say it here now. Even though the research gives the edge to Bailey, I wouldn't be surprised if Minor has a better year. And I'll be willing to bet you can pick up Minor for less money. (According to Sporting News Fantasy Source, you can. It lists Bailey at $21 and Minor at $19. Also, this is not an endorsement of the publication. It just happens to be the first one I picked up. There might or might not be others, for comparison purposes. And if the setbacks I've encountered go away, I'll have my own dollar values by the end of this month.)
Neither of them, nor Cobb at $15, is cheap or inexpensive.
Bailey's price is inflated by memories of his two no-hitters. To date he has been too inconsistent, too feast-or-famine, to be considered a top-tier pitcher. 
To find one of my candidates for the award at a more reasonable price, you might look to Jarrod Parker at $10 (which sounds like such a bargain that you probably wouldn't get him at that price). He also has the magical first name of Jarrod.
To begin the process, I listed all of the pitchers who won between 11 and 13 games in the majors last season. Consider them players who have had a measure of success in the majors, but not necessarily "pile up the wins."
This list started with 33 pitchers. But among those were true stars who didn't win a whole lot in '13: Yu Darvish, Ubaldo Jimenez, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez. By eliminating any pitcher who had won more than 13 in any major league season, the list shrunk to 13.
The other factors I use:
-- Injury history
-- Height
-- Age
-- Last year's opponent batting average
-- Last year's strikeout/walk ratio
-- Team prospects
The injury history is important for two reasons. 1) A pitcher who has worked to return from an injury can have the mental makeup needed for success. 2) A pitcher who hasn't been hurt yet is going to have arm trouble at some point.
Height is important because scouts prefer bigger, seemingly more durable pitchers. One of the many things I learned from John Benson is that the bias toward tall pitchers, especially tall lefties, is justified. Sorry about that, Sonny Gray.
Age is important. Various research has shown that ballplayers, both hitters and pitchers, tend to peak at about 27 years old. Even a bit younger for pitchers, because the woods are full of pitchers who never had an age 27 season before they were injured. Today, I probably would have overlooked 30-year-old Jason Schmidt, though perhaps he was just vastly superior in the other indicators. I don't remember.
Team prospects are important because it's a lot harder to win with a losing team. This qualifier was subjective. I considered "good" teams to be those that have been in the playoffs during the last couple of seasons or seem likely to be this year (I'm talking to you, Angels).
Opponent batting average and strikeout/walk ratio are the two underlying statistics that I think show how well a pitcher is actually throwing, much more than wins or ERA or saves or strikeouts alone.
Here's a breakdown of the 13 pitchers in the study, in order of the number of positive categories. In case of ties, I've looked at specific categories to see if one pitcher has at least a subjective advantage over another.
1. Reds RHP Homer Bailey, the only one with a positive in all 7 indicators
2. Braves LHP Mike Minor, 6 positives
3. Rays RHP Alex Cobb, 6
4. Indians RHP Corey Kluber, 5
5. Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker, 5
6. Marlins RHP Jose Fernandez, 4
7. Athletics LHP Tommy Milone, 4
8. Mets RHP Dillon Gee, 4
9. Orioles LHP Miguel Gonzalez, 4
10. Red Sox LHP Felix Doubront, 4
11. Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson, 4-minus because he'll miss at least half of the season
12. Brewers RHP Wily Peralta, Statistical Anomaly No. 1, 3
13. Padres LHP Eric Stults, Statistical Anomaly No. 2, 3
I did some additional research on the 34-year-old Stults to see if there's something in him that suddenly made him a winner. I'm still not convinced that even his limited success last season was a fluke. He probably won't win even 11 games again.
By the way, with the number of wins declining for league leaders, I'm considering a change next year to consider pitchers with between 10 and 12 wins for the previous season, and no season with more than 12. Minor was the only pitcher with 13 who survived the cut for this year. Bailey and Cobb each won 11 in 2013, and Parker 12.
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While visiting baseball-reference.com for some historical information for this post, I saw an "in memoriam" section that included Ralph Kiner, who died Thursday, and two other players I followed for a time. Two other players whose career didn't get them a wire-service obituary. I saw the late Jophery Brown (died Jan. 11) pitch in his only major league game in 1968, and later saw him as a stunt man in many Hollywood feature movies. Never met him, but I did meet the late Tim Hosley (died Jan. 21). I remember playing in a poker game with him and some of his Toledo Mud Hens teammates at their hotel in Rochester in 1972.
I followed to a very good biography of Brown from SABR, and to an obituary notice from a California funeral home. And here's a good posthumous biography of Hosley. Not sure what he did after his playing days, but his Wikipedia entry indicates that he played in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association.
What I take from all of this is related to this line from the obituary notice: "Enjoy the little things in life...for one day you'll look back and realize they were the big things." Or even things at all. And that the lives of the players we follow, big-time and small-time, aren't all that much different from any or ours. We live, we love, we find a way to survive financially, and eventually we don't live any more. Enjoy it while we can.

Little things could mean a lot in final standings

I have some extra baseball information ready for later today, to commemorate the Diamondbacks pitchers and catchers' reporting today. I'll post that after this usual report.
Today's report is dedicated to the memory of Ralph Kiner. RIP to the Pirates' second-leading career home run hitter.
The Marlins have agreed to terms with RHP Carlos Marmol, but aren't expected to announce that move until they squeeze him into the 40-man roster and move someone else off. More about Marmol in one of what now appear to be two extra posts today.
Signed to minor league contracts:
C Koyie Hill by the Nationals
Infielder Justin Turner by the Dodgers
1B/OF Bryan LaHair by the Indians
The Rangers have picked up some extra revenue by renaming the stadium Globe Life Park in Arlington. Don't expect me to tell someone I'm going to Globe Life Park. I'll also refer to it by that name in writing about as often as I refer to Arlington's football stadium as AT&T Stadium.
* * *
Basketball. After Wednesday's games, Team Fresh Prints' lead increased to 7-1. I trail only in 3-point field goals, 19-17. Six of the guys in my lineup combined for nine 3s. New addition Jose Calderon made only one. Somehow I went ahead in field goal percentage even though Calderon and fellow new Fresh Print Boris Diaw were 4 for 14 combined. They were also the only two players in the full 10-man lineup who didn't score in double figures. Marco Belinelli, on my bench, scored 14 points in his real game for the Spurs despite not hitting any 3s. He'll be one of three players active Thursday; my opponent had no one playing tonight when I last looked at his lineup.
Important key: Find some time or typical times during each day when you can update and upgrade your lineup for daily league.
For me, that time is late the previous night or early in the morning. My sleep is on an irregular schedule, so sometimes late night and early morning are the same thing. I didn't sleep much Tuesday night, so I went to bed at 8 p.m. Wednesday and got up at 1:30 a.m. to start Thursday.
* * *
Hockey. Watching the schedule and switching Joe Pavelski for Corey Perry was somewhat successful. Pavelski played 22 minutes, with only one shot on goal, and was at 0 in plus/minus. Perry was minus-1, but he did take six shots.
Dustin Penner, Perry's teammate in Anaheim and with the Texas Puckin Penguins. was minus-2. Penner was on my bench. So observing that the Ducks were playing the Blackhawks, while Pavelski's Sharks were going against Dallas, was helpful.
Matt Niskanen was plus-1, with a power-play assist, increasing his season lead for my team to plus-27. He's also averaging better than 20 minutes per game.
Two important keys here: 1. I should have begun monitoring games played earlier in the season. Instead of just throwing every available player on fantasy ice, I should have avoided unfavorable matchups and sat players such as Penner against Chicago. 2. Don't always listen to the "experts." Teams will always find a place for those who are playing well. After I picked up Niskanen, every time a Penguins defenseman was returning from injury, I'd read how much playing time Niskanen would be losing and how I should replace him. I figured I'd wait to see if he actually was playing less. As it turned out, it was never enough time that I should give up his strong performance in other statistical categories.
As it happens, the only owner with more games already played than I have is the owner of the second-place team just ahead of me. His skaters have 30 more games, and his goalies 22.
While my team remained at 67 points, each of the top two teams lost half a point to teams in the lower half of the standings. I trail the second-place team by nine assists and nine power-play points, and it's conceivable that I could catch him by season's end by taking advantage of my extra games (really his fewer games) and judicious selection of players for each day's lineup.
From the Thursday lineup I laid out Monday, I made two changes. I replaced forward Paul Stastny with Clarke MacArthur, in part because MacArthur has been filling up more categories recently and also because Stastny will be playing against my only starting goalie, Steve Mason. I don't want anyone, even Stastny, to score against Mason. Well, OK, if another Avalanche player, Nathan MacKinnon, scores Colorado's only goal, that would work. The other change was Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson for teammate Jan Hejda. Johnson has more shots, penalty minutes and ATOI than Hejda.Who knows? An assist, a penalty, or a few extra seconds could make a difference in the final standings.