Veteran pitchers in some demand

There is news in the Hot Stove League. Foremost was the Giants' signing of 38-year-old RHP Tim Hudson to a two-year contract for a reported $23 million. He still can pitch, as long as he recovers from this season's ankle injury. Monday's other definite signing was C Carlos Ruiz, who will remain with the Phillies for three years, with an option for 2017. His contract is worth a reported $26 million. Pending physicals, 40-year-old RHP LaTroy Hawkins would join the Rockies on a one-year, $2.25-million deal and OF/2B Skip Schumaker would become a Cincinnati Red for two years at an undisclosed salary. I'll have more coming up on Hawkins, who pitched for Colorado's 2007 National League champions and could compete for next season's job as closer with LHP Rex Brothers. Which makes sense, because Hawkins has hung around as long as almost any journeyman southpaw reliever. Speaking of lefties, the Orioles signed one, 25-year-old LHP Kelvin De La Cruz. He has had some success against left-handed batters in the high minors for the Dodgers' organization. There's no guarantee that that success would carry over into the majors. * * * While I was at tonight's 76ers-Mavericks game, I had some thoughts about fantasy basketball. Namely, that I'd never played it, didn't really know what categories were used and didn't know how valuable my plus/minus system would be in evaluating players for fantasy basketball. I'll give you results of a preliminary plus/minus study soon. No, it's not the same as the plus-minus you might see in NBA box scores When I arrived home, I looked around espn.com, where my football and hockey fantasy teams reside, and noted that a fantasy basketball draft was scheduled to begin that very minute. Just 8 of the 10 positions were filled, 9 once I signed up. So the draft was delayed another 5 minutes. During that time, a 10th team joined. The draft breezed by in about half an hour. I was in the ninth position in a snake draft, but it seemed pretty clear that I didn't make good use of the six sets of two picks close together. Of course, a modicum of preparation might have helped. When the draft ended, I looked at our league page and found out that the categories at ESPN are pretty standard -- points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-point field goals made and the percentage categories of field goal and free throw percentage. I also found out that the league apparently back-dated our league to play three weeks of head-to-head competition, one "game" for each category -- and I was already in last place at 5-18-1 and trailing in this week's competition 3-4-1. The only players on my new team who were in action tonight were big men Joakim Noah, Serge Ibaka and Samuel Dalembert (who played very well for Dallas). So I did well in rebounds and blocks, but didn't have any 3-pointers, so I lost that category. Just set my lineup for Tuesday. I moved Gerald Wallace on to my active roster, replacing Victor Oladipo as one of my utility players. Wallace's team, the Celtics, is playing Tuesday; Oladipo's Orlando Magic isn't. There should be a few 3s Tuesday. Also playing for me will be Ricky Rubio, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. The lessons already learned here are simply 1) Prepare for your draft and 2) Know the rules and all the set up/settings for your league. My fantasy hockey team started slowly too. I'll be out of last place, maybe within a week. Getting to first place could be a tall order. * * * Speaking of hockey, my team suffered Monday from not having any of my goalies playing. Not only did I lose half a point because the team tied with me had a goalie who won a game, but I also dropped 2 additional points behind the third-place team because he overtook me in ATOI. I'm still confident that I can move up in the goalie categories as well as in three skaters' categories in which I'm also fourth in a 10-team league. * * * There was no action on my fantasy football leagues Monday. RB D'Angelo Williams did not score for my scoring-only league team, which already had clinched a 33-28 victory. But Carolina's rally gave me a loss and an 8-8 record for the week in the Pittsburgh office pool that includes me. I remained 14 games out of first place, but inched up to six games out of the money with six weeks to play. I can only hope for a huge week to fuel a rally like the one I had last year.

Dealing from strength

The baseball hot stove is heating up. In recent years, a lot of talk has been bubbling on the stove in Texas.
This winter's big issue is which middle infielder the Rangers will trade. Side issues are what can they get in return, how big the deal will be and how they might replace what they'll be giving up.
For my money, Texas would be giving up less by trading 2B Ian Kinsler than if they were to deal SS Elvis Andrus, swingman Jurickson Profar or Double-A 2B Rougned Odor. I'm leaving Double-A SS Luis Sardinas out of the mix because to me he seems the least advanced/talented of the group. But if a team would prefer him in a trade, I wouldn't hesitate to sell him high.
Kinsler is most expendable because he has virtually no upside, and all of the others have dynamic upsides.
I still think Andrus can hit for at least gap power, and his greatest value lies in his defense.
Profar didn't fare well in his spotty first pretty much whole season in the majors. He's not Mike Trout, but Profar will be an above-average fielder and a useful offensive player.
Odor is an overachieving scrapper. I'd say potentially a higher-end Jose Altuve.
Texas' No. 1 trade target seems to be Rays LHP David Price, the guy who kept the Rangers out of the playoffs in 2013.
The Rangers couldn't just trade Kinsler and call it a day. In order to trade him from an already shrunken offense, they'd have to make another deal to bring in a proven bat. It's quite likely that many of the scenarios Texas' front office has played out included Marlins OF Giancarlo aka Mike Stanton. Miami insists he is not on the market.
 Thus, the Rangers might be more likely to look to free agency for a bat, and they won't find one with Stanton's raw power or upside. They'd probably have to settle for OF Carlos Beltran or 1B Justin Morneau.
Another possibility would be resigning RF Nelson Cruz, but he's also on the downside of his career. Or Texas could try to pry OF Jose Bautista away from the Blue Jays. It's an intricate puzzle. Every move seems to require a counter move.
We could see the Rangers make a honeycomb or matrix of deals. They believe -- as do a number of other organizations -- that they have nearly sure-fire prospects at just about every position.
From what I've seen of their farm system, it's not as dynamically productive as it has been during the past several years. But other organizations are enamored of the prospects from an organization that has brought along way more prospects than their own system has.
Another scenario is that Texas could be shut out in the trade and free agency markets, as it was for the most part a year ago. That didn't work too well last winter, so expect the Rangers to make even somewhat less advantageous deals than they'd like to have at least a chance of moving forward.
* * *
Just started reading a very interesting book that I've had for probably a decade. It's a SABR reprint of a 1925 book called "Batting," by F.C. Lane. I believe this was one of the bonus publications that SABR provides to its members along with its usual publications. As the editor of the old Baseball magazine, Lane interviewed many players during the first quarter of the 20th century. They're quoted with their opinions about batting.
One passage seems really relevant, given today's emphasis on defensive shifts. " ... In short, batting resolves to the brief but pointed epigram of Willie Keeler's when he said, 'Hit 'em where they ain't.' "'Where they ain't,' is something of a study in geography limited by the playing field and its immediate environs. There are certain zones of safety where the ball may be driven and allow the batter time to negotiate first, but these zones of safety can never be chartered, for they vary with the batter, with the opposing pitcher, with the ball field, even with the stage of the game."
That wasn't to say that teams hadn't developed shifts against certain hitters 90 or 100 years ago. Lane pointed out that opponents would overload the right side of their defense when lefty slugger Cy Williams came to bat. But clearly, today's computer capabilities weren't envisioned in 1925.
Even so, the idea of maximizing and customized defensive capabilities has been around for a century and it has taken most of that time to put the idea into effect.
 * * *
 Even before Monday night's game, I have won in one fantasy football league and lost in the other. I'm on a bit of a roll in the former, now 6-5 and I believe tied for fourth. The other league is going south, down to 4-7. Just 14 points from Peyton Manning, which just about equaled the total from the three RBs in my lineup. Bad day for Jordan Reed too.
 * * *
My fantasy hockey team is pretty much static, still fourth by a comfortable margin, half a point out of third and not likely to finish first unless the current leader collapses totally. With plenty of room to grow with my goalies, I have made a trade offer to the owner who leads in GAA and save percentage. We'll see what happens there. By the way, the goalie I already picked up on waivers was Jean-Sebastien Giguere.

Berry buries Mesa rally in AFL championship game

Here's the longer-form version of the post that Firefox ate (see post, "The dog ate it.") Apparently, it also autosaved most of what I'd written. The Surprise Saguaros won the Arizona Fall League championship Saturday with a 2-0 victory over the Mesa Solar Sox. The game turned in the sixth inning. Trailing 1-0, Mesa had the bases loaded with one out. Orioles prospect Tim Berry, a left-hander, retired AFL most valuable player Kris Bryant (Cubs) on a foul pop and then struck out league batting champ C.J. Cron (Angels) to end the inning. Surprise scored its first run with two out in the second. Henry Urrutia -- not a typical AFL prospect; he played in the majors for Baltimore this year -- doubled and scored on a single by Jorge Alfaro (Rangers). Urrutia went 2-for-3 in the game. In keeping with one of the least appealing aspects of 21st century baseball, the Saguaros used six pitchers in the shutout. * * * Update on my fantasy hockey league: my goaltending situation grew brighter. My lineup-setting wasn't very good. I picked up half a point because Maple Leafs goalie James Reimer earned a win, and another half-point because I moved into a tie in ATOI. On the downside, five of the six skaters who played for me Saturday were minus-1. And the only skater I didn't play because he was minus-5 for the season, Thomas Huberdeau, was plus-1. I led the fourth-best team in plus-minus by 1 point through Friday, but now I'm in fourth place and 7 points out of third. I guess the lesson is this: Play all of the available players on your roster. If you don't trust a guy enough to use him, he probably doesn't belong on your team. I'll give Huberdeau another chance or two. I also put in a waiver claim for a goalie. I'll let you know how it comes out.

The dog ate it

The dog didn't eat my homework Saturday, but Firefox crapped out and took away almost an entire (fairly short) post. I'm too tired to redo it in toto, but here's a synopsis. An Orioles prospect, LHP Tim Berry, pitched out of a bases-loaded jam in the sixth inning to help the Surprise Saguaros defeat the Mesa Solar Sox 2-0 for the Arizona Fall League championship. Berry retired AFL most valuable player Kris Bryant (Cubs) and struck out batting champion C.J. Cron (Angels) to end the inning. My fantasy hockey team stayed about where it was Saturday, remaining in fourth place with 61 points in a 10-team league. My goaltending picture brightened but my plus/minus continued to head south. I may or may not give you more details later Sunday. Depends on my mood and electronic cooperation.

Fantasy spectrum

Even when most of the news is from other sports, my posts will be primarily about baseball. I'm kind of easing into that mode; I haven't really allowed myself to follow baseball much since the World Series and my fantasy leagues ended. I still have to send out some hard-copy reports to the computer-challenged and those without sufficient equipment, and some checks to the winners. A couple of interesting player moves. A year ago at this time, OF Marlon Byrd had to go play winter ball in the Mexican Pacific League to prove himself worthy of a major league contract. He was coming off a year that included a drug suspension. He was a valuable addition to the Pirates' lineup down the stretch and in the postseason. Now he's a valuable addition back with his original team, the Phillies, who signed him for 2 years and $16 million. The Blue Jays signed 1B Dan Johnson. He has had some really ugly statistical seasons, but has elevated his game in September/October crunch time for just about every team that has employed him. After some false alarms, is Toronto really ready to make a run for the postseason. I'd like to see that for John Gibbons' sake if nothing else. * * * After this week's first NFL game, I'm leading 15-0 in one league and trailing 15-0 in the other. I seriously doubt that the leader will stay the same in both leagues, and maybe not in either. The league where I'm ahead is points-only. I scored 9 with Rob Bironas and 6 with Delanie Walker. But now I have just six players remaining, and my opponent has all eight of his. In the other league, a points/yardage/bonus setup, my opponent's points came from Adam Vinatieri -- 3 PATs and 3 field goals with some bonus points for distance. She has eight players remaining, but I have all nine of mine. * * * Remember how one of my tips for fantasy hockey was to make sure you make your daily lineup revisions early so you don't forget them? As I was driving to Fort Worth this afternoon, I thought I'd forgotten to make mine. Then as I began writing this, I made some moves late last night, late enough that it was after midnight and the moves would register for Friday. Perhaps I should have made all the moves. I put Torey Krug in the lineup to replace Milan Michalek. Krug was -2 and Michalek +2. My goalie woes continued, but to a lesser degree. I'm still having trouble gaining wins. Steve Mason played very well, stopping 36 of 38 shots, but the Flyers lost to Washington in a shootout. Mason did help considerably with his 1.85 GAA and .947 save percentage. I stayed at 61 points, but dropped into fourth place, half a point out of third. My team's plus/minus, driven by the 4-point swing between Krug and Michalek, now is only one ahead of my league's fifth-best team in plus-minus. My goalies are within 4 percentage points of ninth place, and within 5 points in save percentage but the 3.02 team GAA is 17 percentage points out of ninth place.

Fantasy hockey

This season I decided, pretty much last minute, to get into a fantasy hockey league for the first time. That's because I'm covering a lot more hockey this year after covering virtually none during the truncated 2013 (there was no 2012- in front of it) season. In the wee hours of Oct. 1, I went to espn.com and found a league that was drafting early that morning, maybe 5 a.m., and had 9 of 10 spots taken. I clicked the appropriate links to allow me to join, looked around for how I could customize the draft list, had trouble finding what I wanted, decided I was too tired to make credible moves anyway and went to bed. When I woke up, fairly early but not at 5 a.m., I saw my new team's roster. Lots of guys I'd never heard of. And that wasn't a bad thing because I'm trying to familiarize myself with the players around the league. I didn't even know a whole lot about the Stars. Their roster has changed a lot in the last two seasons. Anyway, my autopicked team quickly plunged to the bottom of the league. I found that out the next time I checked, a few days later. With a lot of moves, a couple of trades that didn't go through but pointed me in the right direction and more attention paid to the league, I've moved up to third place. But it isn't a good place. I'm closer to seventh or eighth place than I am to the two teams ahead of me. Here are some tips I've learned for myself that I can pass on to you. 1. Avoid signing up at the last minute, not customizing the website's draft list and above all else, having your team autopicked. I'm pretty sure I missed a run of goalies somewhere that would have led me to draft at least one higher than their autopick value indicated. 2. Learn what the categories mean. I saw PIM, but wasn't sure whether having a lot of penalty minutes was good or bad. (It's good.) But what the heck is ATOI? Nothing like Bill James' Favorite Toy, but instead Average Time on Ice. It's an equalizer to help give defensemen more value. There's also a category called PPP. I figured it had something to do with power plays, but I wasn't sure what. Power Play Points. Again, it can be an equalizer for defensemen. They're not going to score many goals, even on the power play, but if they spend a lot of time on the ice at the point on the power play, they're going to get assists when a teammate tips in or gets in the way of a slap shot. 3. Follow the action daily, and make sure you check in early enough to make moves. Unlike the fantasy football and even baseball leagues I'm in where the lineup changes are weekly, you can have a new lineup every day. It doesn't do you any good to have all of your fantasy bench on teams that are playing that night, while your marginally better or even stud players' teams are taking the night off. Conversely, if you don't switch back the next night, you might miss out on some good performances from players you sat the night before. 4. Don't overreact to short-term problems. This is one I should have remembered from any other fantasy sport. I spent the first couple of weeks picking up goalies who had played one good game to replace established players who might have given up 4 or 5 goals the night before. As a result of No. 4, I still have just 4 points in 3 categories from my goalies. I'm trying to rotate them in and out, in accordance with point No. 3 above. If all three happen to be playing, which sometimes happens on Tuesdays or other busy nights, I try to pick the two hot hands or the two with the easiest opponents. That's still a bit of a guessing game. But my GAA and save percentage are dropping slowly, to the point where I might even pick up 1 or 2 points in the next week or so. Hockey is not the marathon that the baseball season, but at least this season it's a half-marathon. * * * Thursdays are a busy fantasy day this year. They start with a reminder from an office football pool I'm in from my daughter Diana's former employer. I make those picks, with the spreads. I'm pretty much in the middle of the pack, one game under .500 for the season. I need to make up seven games in seven weeks to get into the money. If I could do that, it would also be more likely that I'd win a weekly prize of almost twice my investment for the season. After that, I check out any waiver claims I made after the weekend's games, plus injury reports on my players and bye-week information to see if I have to make any changes in either of my fantasy football lineups. This week, the Rams are off so I replaced Greg Zuerlein with Matt Bryant and Rob Bironas. I also picked up Andre Brown on waivers in one league. He replaced a wide receiver as my flex player, with two other pretty good RBs in that league. In the other league, I culled through the scrapheap of RBs to find a replacement for Arian Foster and came up with Bernard Pearce. He's just a backup. I elevated D'Angelo Williams to the starting lineup in that league, which counts only scoring and not yardage. As with the office pool, I'm mediocre in both fantasy football leagues. 5-5 in one, 4-6 in the other, but still with playoff chances if I manage my lineups correctly or get lucky. Peyton Manning's gimpy ankle has been carrying me in one league; Matt Stafford is my man in the scoring-only league. This season, I'm now also somewhat micromanaging my fantasy hockey team. On waivers, I picked up Anaheim defenseman Francois Beauchemin to put me on a good road, as well as Ottawa forward Clarke MacArhur, whom I hope has Kent or even Douglas as his middle name. Today's lineup changes put Beauchemin in for Pittsburgh's Matt Niskanen, Boston defenseman Torey Krug as my utility player in place of Ottawa forward Milan Michalak and Islanders goalie for Toronto's James Reimer. Time to eat. More, including baseball, to come soon.

Sell high on Linperman

I'm about to see my first dose of Linsanity.
I don't need to see it to know that this bubble, this 15 minutes, will burst well in advance of the NBA playoffs.
So if you're one of those fantasy basketball owners with the foresight, or perhaps desperation, to buy low and cash in on Jeremy Lin's ever-upward swing of the roller coaster (assuming that your league doesn't assign negative points for turnovers), you should be actively shopping him for another productive young player. Or perhaps for a veteran who you think will take his game off of autopilot down the stretch.
Lin wasn't totally made out of whole cloth. He has had some big games during his hot streak. However, you need to put his performance into context, as my friend John Benson would urge.
He arrived in the national consciousness in sort of a perfect storm. He has had his success playing for New York in the media magnifying glass. He's a great story, already the greatest Asian-American player in the NBA and the greatest Harvard grad to play pro ball. Most of all, he stepped into a media vacuum.
The timing was perfect. Virtually nothing else is going on in the sports world. NFL? Nothing more than a few, but still too many, pre-combine reports. Baseball? Pitchers and catchers still hadn't reported. Hockey? Eh? College basketball? In a whirl of mind-numbing conference games that mean absolutely nothing. the ninth-place team in the Big Ten still will get into the NCAA tournament.
NBA? Sure, teams are playing every night, but they're not playing well.
Lin has succeeded by playing full speed against teams full of players going at half-speed. Well, not all. Some are playing at three-quarter speed, and some really gearing it up for the last minute in the few games that have been close.
Need more proof of that. Kris Humphries scored 24 points and had 17 rebounds a couple of nights ago. See? Any player on an NBA roster can do that if he's trying hard in a game this year.
Anyway, you could turn Lin into a far better fantasy player if you act quickly. Don't get stuck, like those silk screeners getting in late on Lin-based T-shirt production. At least some kids in Guatemala will be getting free T-shirts soon.