Sunday, July 5, 2009

Role reversal: Consider NL batters, AL pitchers

There could be significant advantages in games, or at least innings, played this week in the National League. Or the advantage for the Nationals and particularly the Astros over most teams would be slight.

Houston and Washington are scheduled for seven games, plus the completion of a suspended game. Most NL teams would be playing seven games, but the Dodgers, Brewers, Mets and Pirates are scheduled for just six. Thus, those teams' hitters and relief pitchers would have a 14 per cent disadvantage over 10 teams in their league. The suspended game already is in extra innings, so it could drag on. Or it could mean just an extra at-bat for one National.

Every NL team is playing this week's schedule entirely at home or entirely on the road. Even the completion of the Nationals' home game from May 4 is taking place in Houston Thursday.

In the American League, just three teams have games split between the road and their home park. The Orioles and White Sox would play three times each home and road. The Yankees are scheduled to begin the week at home Monday against the Blue Jays, then to go on the road for six games.

Six AL teams -- the Red Sox, Royals, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays -- would play seven games. The eight others are scheduled for seven games.

The Red Sox (Athletics three games, Royals four) and Mariners (Orioles three, Rangers four) are scheduled to play seven games at home. Boston has one of the majors' best hitters' parks; Seattle is one of the best for pitchers.

Overall, it looks like a better week for pitchers than for hitters in the AL, but in the NL, the hitters would seem to have an advantage.

In addition to Seattle, Minnesota (Yankees and White Sox three games each) has one of the majors' best pitchers' parks, which would be in play for all six Twins games this week. Tampa Bay (Blue Jays and Athletics) also is scheduled for six home games in a park that slightly favors pitchers. The only AL park scheduled for six games in a positive hitting environment is at Detroit (Royals and Indians).

In contrast, the NL would have three of the majors' best hitting parks in use for seven games. Those are at Arizona (Padres three, Marlins four); Wrigley Field (Braves three, Cardinals four), and Colorado (Nationals three, Braves four). Thus, it might not be a bad week for Atlanta batters, even on the road. Also, hitters generally have the upper hand in Philadelphia (Reds four, Pirates three) and San Francisco (Marlins three, Padres four). So it might not be a bad week to consider Florida and San Diego batters.

The only National League parks favoring pitchers slightly all week would be at Houston (Pirates three, Nationals four-plus); Milwaukee (Cardinals and Dodgers three each), and Citi Field (Dodgers and Reds three each). In other words, leave your Dodgers batters on the bench.

With so many teams playing their entire schedule at home, there would be plenty of pitchers with two home starts this week. They would be RHPs John Smoltz, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Scott Baker, James Shields, Jon Garland, Randy Wells, Ryan Dempster, Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, Brian Moehler, Yovani Gallardo, Mike Pelfrey and Matt Cain, and LHPs Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard, Doug Davis, Mike Hampton, Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ and Barry Zito. Our highest recommendations are Beckett, who has made our Hot list two weeks in a row; Shields; Gallardo, and Cain, with Baker and Washburn as live longshots.

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