5-50 rule predicts no 20-game winners, 58 HR for leader

Today, not the All-Star break, marks the halfway point of the major league season.

Teams have been playing for 13 of the 26 weeks in the season. Some teams have played more than 81 (half of the 162 games). I haven’t looked at the standings, but I’d be surprised if a number of teams haven’t played exactly 81. I’m now watching the Rangers and Angels, who both are playing their 81st game as I write.

This is a good time to look at the major league leaders in common fantasy statistical categories, plus a few others that tell us exactly how effective players have been for half a season.

As you look at these, remember the 5-50 Rule.

The final statistical leaders are likely to have totals 5 per cent poorer than the halfway totals multiplied by 2. So if a current stat leader has 50, the leading total at the end of the season should be about (50X2)-5%, or 100-5=95. For averages and ratios, the final leader should be about 95 per cent as good as the halfway leader’s figure. The easiest way to see that among the current leaders is in ERA, where the season leader would be about 5 per cent worse than Zack Greinke’s 2.00, or 2.10.

The reason for the 5 per cent half of the 5-50 Rule is that in each half of the season someone is likely to have a similar performance over that period of time. It’s not likely that one person could keep up that pace over 162 games, but two individuals could have that type of performance over an 80-or-so-game haul.

It’s just as likely that the top second-half performer could have a better “other” half of the year than what the first-half statistical leader produces over the final 80-some games. That begets the 50 portion of the 5-50 Rule, that about 50 per cent of the statistical leaders at season’s end would be the first-half leaders, and 50 per cent wouldn’t.

Here are the categories, the leaders through Sunday, their totals and the projected top season totals.

BA-Mariners OF Ichiro Suzuki, .362, .344
HR-Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols, 31, 58
RBI-Pujols, 82, 155
SB-Rays OF Carl Crawford, 41, 77
R-Pujols, 66, 125
H-Suzuki, 117, 222
On-base Percentage-Pujols, .460, .437
Slugging Percentage-Pujols, .739. .702. It’s safe to believe that Pujols will lead the majors in one or more of these categories this season.
W-Royals RHP Zack Greinke, Blue Jays RHP Roy Halladay, Rockies RHP Jason Marquis, Twins RHP Kevin Slowey and Red Sox RHP Tim Wakefield, 10, 19. Marquis got a head start toward reaching 19 by winning his 11th tonight. Slowey faces an uphill climb because he’s on the disabled list. The thing to note here is that we’re saying there is not likely to be a 20-game winner this season.
ERA-Greinke, 2.00, 2.10
S-Angels LHP Brian Fuentes, 24, 45
WHIP-Diamondbacks RHP Dan Haren, 0.83, 0.87
SO-Giants RHP Tim Lincecum, 141, 267
Opponents’ Batting Average-Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo, .193, .203
K/W Ratio-Haren, 7.93, 7.53