Friday, February 7, 2014

Perth one game away from Australian title

Here's how I started this blog, before news came down that the Diamondbacks had signed free-agent RHP Bronson Arroyo:
Some fairly small moves could make a larger difference for their teams this year and into the near future.
The Orioles and C Matt Wieters reached agreement on a $7.7-million contract for this season, thus avoiding arbitration. The greater significance is that he can have a better feeling about the team, which could lead to a longer-term contract down the road.
The Athletics signed CF Coco Crisp to a two-year contract extension through 2016 with a vesting option for 2017. He's a keystone in center field and at the top of the lineup -- when he isn't injured. That's why the team took the precaution of a vesting option instead of a guaranteed third year. If it vests, no one would be happier than Oakland's management.
The White Sox agreed to a 1-year, $1.1-million contract with RHP Mitchell Boggs. He was briefly a closer for the Cardinals, and could take over that role with Chicago. Currently penciled in for the job is RHP Nate Jones, but RHP Matt Lindstrom and LHP Scott Downs also have experience locking up games.
Now, on to Arroyo.
Arizona reportedly signed him to a 2-year, $23.5-million contract with an option for 2016 that could bring the total value to $29 million. Could the D-backs be overpaying? Well, he'll be 37 years old this season -- and he's Bronson Arroyo, not Tim Hudson.
Also, though I haven't seen an official acknowledgment from the Mariners, they reportedly signed RHP Fernando Rodney for two years and $14 million. That signing would impact every team that unsuccessfully sought Rodney. For example, I read a report that said the Orioles now would go with RHP Tommy Hunter as their closer.
Speaking of closers or ex-closers, the Brewers are bringing back RHP Francisco Rodriguez on a 1-year contract believed to be for $3.25 million with another $550,000 in incentives. Which reminds me. In a few days, I hope to post another residual fantasybaseballscout.com article about closers for 2014. To make room for K-Rod on the 40-man roster, Milwaukee designated RHP Donovan Hand for assignment.
I have been working on this post off and on for most of the day. It has been interrupted by visitors to the house, taking a battery for one of our cars to be recharged and going to the Jazz-Mavericks game. Some of this I wrote at the American Airlines Center before the game.
As I was about to go courtside, I saw this -- well, probably not bombshell, because in the end he really didn't have a choice, but revelatory item that caught most of us by surprise.
3B Alex Rodriguez has dropped his suit against Major League Baseball, the players association, the commissioner and probably even the batboys. He won't follow through on his threat to show up for spring training. And he won't play this season.
So now I'm writing about that back home. 
I wrote the headline for this post several hours ago here. I suspect by the time I get up Saturday morning, we'll already know whether there will be a decisive Game 3 in the Australian Baseball League Championship Series or whether the Perth Heat swept the Canberra Cavalry in two games.
That's because Saturday's Game 2 at 7 p.m. Australia Western Time would begin at 6 a.m. EST.
The Heat overcame a 3-0 deficit in what must have been one of the classic games ever Down Under. Perth then prevailed 4-3 in 14 innings. Joey Wong's double drove in the winning run in the bottom of the 14th. He batted .240 with two homers and 19 RBI at Double-A Tulsa last (Northern Hemisphere) summer, so he's a marginal prospect for the Rockies. I saw him play, and he didn't make a big impression positively or negatively.
If the Heat win, it would be the third championship in the last four years.
By the way, you can watch the ABL Championship Series on ESPN -- if you live in Australia or New Zealand. 
* * *
Basketball. Similarly, I started out by seeing that on Thursday my three active players made only one 3-point field goal, so I was still behind by one in that category against an opponent who had no one active. My lead was 7-1, and the second-place team was ahead 8-0, so I stood to lose some of my lead.
Now, literally at the end of the day -- no, early Saturday morning (late afternoon in Perth), I'm looking better. Two of my players -- Jose Calderon, whom I saw in person, and Carmelo Anthony -- threw in four 3s each, helping me to take the lead in that category. Three of my players scored 30-plus points, two had double doubles and my best draft pick, Serge Ibaka, blocked five shots while he wasn't putting in 26 points at the other end. My lead is now 8-0, and the second-place team dropped to 6-2, so I could actually extend my lead. Two days left this week, so I don't want to look ahead too much.
* * *
Hockey. My starting goalies, Steve Mason and Ben Scrivens, both won Thursday, giving up only one goal in 60 minutes, and had a combined .973 save percentage. That improved my stats in all three categories, but not enough to gain any points.
Important key: Don't make the same mistake I did of leaving a problem area unresolved too late into the season. You've heard of small sample sizes. Well, the large sample size of nearly three-quarters of the season means that one or two days of performances won't make a major difference in the standings.
I still hold out hope of being able to overtake the second-place team in my league, but I know it won't be easy.
Hey! There were games Friday night too. Let's see how the Puckin Penguins did. The only active players, Joe Pavelski and Matt Niskanen (one of my best draft picks or early season pickups, I don't remember which), were plus-1 each. That restored some order, but it appears that the team still is eight points behind the second-place team.


Thursday, February 6, 2014

Mexico advances to Caribbean Series championship

Sebastian Valle singled home Yunesky Sanchez with the winning run in the ninth inning as Mexico rallied to defeat the Dominican Republic 3-2 Thursday night.
The Mexican team advanced to Saturday night's Caribbean Series final at Margarita Island, Venzuela, against the winner of Friday's semifinal between Puerto Rico and Venezuela.
For information purposes, I'll designate the contract status and other pertinent information for the players mentioned in this post because most of them are 1) who's he or 2) I didn't know he was still playing.
Valle is a 23-year-old catcher in the Phillies' organization. He backslid last season, but he has hit 25 homers the last two seasons for Double-A Reading. 3B Sanchez, 29, played last summer in the Mexican League but has been as high as Triple-A in the U.S.
LHP Oliver Perez (32, free agent) was the winning pitcher even though he walked one batter and hit another in his one inning, the ninth. Mexico had tied the game with a run in the bottom of the eighth.
On Wednesday, the Dominican Republic had defeated Mexico City 7-6 in the final game of the round-robin qualifier. OF Eugenio Velez (31, Brewers) hit a two-run home run in a four-run third inning. It was the second homer of the series for Velez, better known as a base stealer.
The losing pitcher was RHP Guillermo Mota (40, Royals), who entered the game with a 2-1 lead, the bases loaded and two out in the eighth inning. He didn't retire any of three batters in the ninth. In addition to blowing a save, he had two of the Dominicans' three losses and a 10.80 ERA in the series.
Puerto Rico qualified for the semifinals by handing Venezuela its only loss of the round robin, 5-4. RHP Tyler Herron (27, Nationals) retired 2B Alberto Callaspo (30, Athletics) with the tying run at first base for Herron's second save of the series. He could be someone to watch. Herron, a converted starter, had six saves in high-A and Double-A ball last summer, then was a Puerto Rican All-Star with 12 saves during the winter season.
Puerto Rico finished the round robin tied with Mexico and the Dominican Republic at 2-2. If the Puerto Rican team had lost, it would have been eliminated at 1-3 because it lost to Cuba, which did finish 1-3 in the five-team event.
The starting pitchers for Friday's semifinal were teammates last season at Triple-A Las Vegas (Mets organization. Giancarlo Alvarado, 36, is scheduled to start for Puerto Rico against Venezuela's Daryl Thompson, 28.
Other statistical leaders during round-robin play:
Batting average -- C Ronny Paulino (32, Tigers) .545 (6 for 11), Dominican Republic; and 2B Emilio Bonifacio (28, free agent) .462 (6 for 13), D.R.
Home runs -- 3B Zelous Wheeler (27, Yankees) 3, Mexico. He spent the last three years in Double-A and Triple-A in the Orioles organization.
RBI -- Wheeler; OF Chris Roberson (34, has played three of the last four seasons in Mexico, a former Phillie), Mexico; and C Ramon Hernandez (37, Royals), Venezuela, all with 5
ERA -- Alfredo Aceves (31, Orioles), Mexico; Juan Delgadillo (31, Mexican League veteran), Mexico, and Jon Leicester, D.R., who hasn't played in organized baseball since 2011, all 1-0, 0.00 in seven innings. Aceves started Thursday's semifinal game as well.
RHP Joel Pineiro (35, free agent) was 0-1 but with an 0.00 ERA in 6 2/3 innings.
Saves -- Jean Machi (32, Giants), Venezuela, 3
Carlos Marmol, 31, pitched a perfect inning in each of two games during the round robin for the Dominican Republic with a save, an 0.00 ERA and an 0.00 WHIP. On Thursday, Marmol's representatives said he had agreed to a 2014 contract with the Marlins. He could offer an alternative if RHP Steve Cishek struggles as Miami's closer.

How Homer Bailey (Mike Minor?) could be like Jarrod Washburn

In 2003, when Lenny Pappano hired me for the opening of the dear departed fantasybaseballscout.com web site, one of the features we advertised was "How to Find a Cheap Starting Pitcher Who Can Pile Up the Wins."
I had done similar research a year earlier that pointed to Jarrod Washburn. He improved from 11-10 in 2001 to 18-6 as a 27-year-old in '02.
Thus was born, after I joined fantasybaseballscout.com, the Jarrod Washburn Award. The pre-season projected winner for 2003 was Jason Schmidt, who lived up to the spirit of the award by improving from 13-8 to 17-5.
There were other successes during the lifetime of fantasybaseballscout.com.
I'm reviving the Jarrod Washburn Award for this blog, and I'll post revivals of other remnants from fantasybaseballscout.com before this season begins.
Before I get into the methodology, here's the bottom line. The Jarrod Washburn Award for 2014 is ... drum roll ... Homer Bailey.
Honorable mention to Mike Minor and Alex Cobb. I'll say it here now. Even though the research gives the edge to Bailey, I wouldn't be surprised if Minor has a better year. And I'll be willing to bet you can pick up Minor for less money. (According to Sporting News Fantasy Source, you can. It lists Bailey at $21 and Minor at $19. Also, this is not an endorsement of the publication. It just happens to be the first one I picked up. There might or might not be others, for comparison purposes. And if the setbacks I've encountered go away, I'll have my own dollar values by the end of this month.)
Neither of them, nor Cobb at $15, is cheap or inexpensive.
Bailey's price is inflated by memories of his two no-hitters. To date he has been too inconsistent, too feast-or-famine, to be considered a top-tier pitcher. 
To find one of my candidates for the award at a more reasonable price, you might look to Jarrod Parker at $10 (which sounds like such a bargain that you probably wouldn't get him at that price). He also has the magical first name of Jarrod.
To begin the process, I listed all of the pitchers who won between 11 and 13 games in the majors last season. Consider them players who have had a measure of success in the majors, but not necessarily "pile up the wins."
This list started with 33 pitchers. But among those were true stars who didn't win a whole lot in '13: Yu Darvish, Ubaldo Jimenez, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez. By eliminating any pitcher who had won more than 13 in any major league season, the list shrunk to 13.
The other factors I use:
-- Injury history
-- Height
-- Age
-- Last year's opponent batting average
-- Last year's strikeout/walk ratio
-- Team prospects
The injury history is important for two reasons. 1) A pitcher who has worked to return from an injury can have the mental makeup needed for success. 2) A pitcher who hasn't been hurt yet is going to have arm trouble at some point.
Height is important because scouts prefer bigger, seemingly more durable pitchers. One of the many things I learned from John Benson is that the bias toward tall pitchers, especially tall lefties, is justified. Sorry about that, Sonny Gray.
Age is important. Various research has shown that ballplayers, both hitters and pitchers, tend to peak at about 27 years old. Even a bit younger for pitchers, because the woods are full of pitchers who never had an age 27 season before they were injured. Today, I probably would have overlooked 30-year-old Jason Schmidt, though perhaps he was just vastly superior in the other indicators. I don't remember.
Team prospects are important because it's a lot harder to win with a losing team. This qualifier was subjective. I considered "good" teams to be those that have been in the playoffs during the last couple of seasons or seem likely to be this year (I'm talking to you, Angels).
Opponent batting average and strikeout/walk ratio are the two underlying statistics that I think show how well a pitcher is actually throwing, much more than wins or ERA or saves or strikeouts alone.
Here's a breakdown of the 13 pitchers in the study, in order of the number of positive categories. In case of ties, I've looked at specific categories to see if one pitcher has at least a subjective advantage over another.
1. Reds RHP Homer Bailey, the only one with a positive in all 7 indicators
2. Braves LHP Mike Minor, 6 positives
3. Rays RHP Alex Cobb, 6
4. Indians RHP Corey Kluber, 5
5. Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker, 5
6. Marlins RHP Jose Fernandez, 4
7. Athletics LHP Tommy Milone, 4
8. Mets RHP Dillon Gee, 4
9. Orioles LHP Miguel Gonzalez, 4
10. Red Sox LHP Felix Doubront, 4
11. Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson, 4-minus because he'll miss at least half of the season
12. Brewers RHP Wily Peralta, Statistical Anomaly No. 1, 3
13. Padres LHP Eric Stults, Statistical Anomaly No. 2, 3
I did some additional research on the 34-year-old Stults to see if there's something in him that suddenly made him a winner. I'm still not convinced that even his limited success last season was a fluke. He probably won't win even 11 games again.
By the way, with the number of wins declining for league leaders, I'm considering a change next year to consider pitchers with between 10 and 12 wins for the previous season, and no season with more than 12. Minor was the only pitcher with 13 who survived the cut for this year. Bailey and Cobb each won 11 in 2013, and Parker 12.
* * *
While visiting baseball-reference.com for some historical information for this post, I saw an "in memoriam" section that included Ralph Kiner, who died Thursday, and two other players I followed for a time. Two other players whose career didn't get them a wire-service obituary. I saw the late Jophery Brown (died Jan. 11) pitch in his only major league game in 1968, and later saw him as a stunt man in many Hollywood feature movies. Never met him, but I did meet the late Tim Hosley (died Jan. 21). I remember playing in a poker game with him and some of his Toledo Mud Hens teammates at their hotel in Rochester in 1972.
I followed to a very good biography of Brown from SABR, and to an obituary notice from a California funeral home. And here's a good posthumous biography of Hosley. Not sure what he did after his playing days, but his Wikipedia entry indicates that he played in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association.
What I take from all of this is related to this line from the obituary notice: "Enjoy the little things in life...for one day you'll look back and realize they were the big things." Or even things at all. And that the lives of the players we follow, big-time and small-time, aren't all that much different from any or ours. We live, we love, we find a way to survive financially, and eventually we don't live any more. Enjoy it while we can.

Little things could mean a lot in final standings

I have some extra baseball information ready for later today, to commemorate the Diamondbacks pitchers and catchers' reporting today. I'll post that after this usual report.
Today's report is dedicated to the memory of Ralph Kiner. RIP to the Pirates' second-leading career home run hitter.
The Marlins have agreed to terms with RHP Carlos Marmol, but aren't expected to announce that move until they squeeze him into the 40-man roster and move someone else off. More about Marmol in one of what now appear to be two extra posts today.
Signed to minor league contracts:
C Koyie Hill by the Nationals
Infielder Justin Turner by the Dodgers
1B/OF Bryan LaHair by the Indians
The Rangers have picked up some extra revenue by renaming the stadium Globe Life Park in Arlington. Don't expect me to tell someone I'm going to Globe Life Park. I'll also refer to it by that name in writing about as often as I refer to Arlington's football stadium as AT&T Stadium.
* * *
Basketball. After Wednesday's games, Team Fresh Prints' lead increased to 7-1. I trail only in 3-point field goals, 19-17. Six of the guys in my lineup combined for nine 3s. New addition Jose Calderon made only one. Somehow I went ahead in field goal percentage even though Calderon and fellow new Fresh Print Boris Diaw were 4 for 14 combined. They were also the only two players in the full 10-man lineup who didn't score in double figures. Marco Belinelli, on my bench, scored 14 points in his real game for the Spurs despite not hitting any 3s. He'll be one of three players active Thursday; my opponent had no one playing tonight when I last looked at his lineup.
Important key: Find some time or typical times during each day when you can update and upgrade your lineup for daily league.
For me, that time is late the previous night or early in the morning. My sleep is on an irregular schedule, so sometimes late night and early morning are the same thing. I didn't sleep much Tuesday night, so I went to bed at 8 p.m. Wednesday and got up at 1:30 a.m. to start Thursday.
* * *
Hockey. Watching the schedule and switching Joe Pavelski for Corey Perry was somewhat successful. Pavelski played 22 minutes, with only one shot on goal, and was at 0 in plus/minus. Perry was minus-1, but he did take six shots.
Dustin Penner, Perry's teammate in Anaheim and with the Texas Puckin Penguins. was minus-2. Penner was on my bench. So observing that the Ducks were playing the Blackhawks, while Pavelski's Sharks were going against Dallas, was helpful.
Matt Niskanen was plus-1, with a power-play assist, increasing his season lead for my team to plus-27. He's also averaging better than 20 minutes per game.
Two important keys here: 1. I should have begun monitoring games played earlier in the season. Instead of just throwing every available player on fantasy ice, I should have avoided unfavorable matchups and sat players such as Penner against Chicago. 2. Don't always listen to the "experts." Teams will always find a place for those who are playing well. After I picked up Niskanen, every time a Penguins defenseman was returning from injury, I'd read how much playing time Niskanen would be losing and how I should replace him. I figured I'd wait to see if he actually was playing less. As it turned out, it was never enough time that I should give up his strong performance in other statistical categories.
As it happens, the only owner with more games already played than I have is the owner of the second-place team just ahead of me. His skaters have 30 more games, and his goalies 22.
While my team remained at 67 points, each of the top two teams lost half a point to teams in the lower half of the standings. I trail the second-place team by nine assists and nine power-play points, and it's conceivable that I could catch him by season's end by taking advantage of my extra games (really his fewer games) and judicious selection of players for each day's lineup.
From the Thursday lineup I laid out Monday, I made two changes. I replaced forward Paul Stastny with Clarke MacArthur, in part because MacArthur has been filling up more categories recently and also because Stastny will be playing against my only starting goalie, Steve Mason. I don't want anyone, even Stastny, to score against Mason. Well, OK, if another Avalanche player, Nathan MacKinnon, scores Colorado's only goal, that would work. The other change was Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson for teammate Jan Hejda. Johnson has more shots, penalty minutes and ATOI than Hejda.Who knows? An assist, a penalty, or a few extra seconds could make a difference in the final standings.




Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Freeman earns big contract; can Heyward do the same?

The biggest contract signing Monday was the Diamondbacks' re-signing with OF Gerardo Parra for this season.
Tuesday's activities dwarfed that one. The Braves avoided arbitration with the two players they hope will be the kingpins of their offense for the near future. 1B Freddie Freeman signed for a franchise-record $135 milion over eight years, and OF Jason Heyward agreed to two years and $13.3 million.
To put Freeman's contract in perspective, the most Chipper Jones ever got was $90 million for six years. Yes, there has been some inflation since then, but Freeman's amount still blows Jones out of the water. Can Freddie earn it? Yes, unless complacency sets in. In Heyward's case, Atlanta must be hoping that his seeing a few million now could be the incentive he needs to show that he's ready to earn and receive much more in his next contract. He hasn't yet shown that he's worthy.
A more sobering note: Padres LHP Cory Luebke will undergo Tommy John surgery for the second consecutive year, and as a result will not be pitching for the second season in a row.
Free agency continues to be a topic, but a slow-moving topic with no signings for a while.
The players being spurned because they would cost the signing team a draft pick are RHPs Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, OF Nelson Cruz, DH Kendrys Morales and SS Stephen Drew.
With RHP Jeremy Hellickson out for at least six weeks this season, the Rays could sign RHP Bronson Arroyo, the next-best available starter to take Hellickson's spot in the rotation for at least a while.
Other starting pitchers still available include LHPs Chris Capuano, Barry Zito and Paul Maholm, and RHPs Tommy Hanson and Jake Westbrook. Out of that group, I'd be most interested in Maholm and Hanson (if he isn't hurt).
Former closers available are RHPs Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, Rafael Betancourt, Kevin Gregg, Brett Myers, Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney. There are reasons why most of them USED TO BE closers. Rodriguez is second among active pitchers with 302 career saves, but at this point he's far more likely to get 2 more saves than to get 300. Rodney is the best of the lot; he still seems to have that chip on his shoulder/swagger combination that works so well in that role. RHPs Luis Ayala and Frank Francisco have had some saves during their career, but seem barely capable of keeping a major league job now.
LHPs Mike Gonzalez and Oliver Perez also are available for bullpen supporting roles.
Other free agents who have had some success in years past are 3B Placido Polanco and OF Juan Pierre, who doesn't seem likely even to steal enough bases to have some fantasy value.
Look ahead to Thursday. That's the day when the first pitchers and catchers will report -- for the Diamondbacks, who will open the regular season (with the Dodgers) a week earlier than everyone else in Australia. Arizona also seems serious about being a player, both in free agency and on the field.
* * *
Hockey. On Monday, eight skaters were active on my team, and they provided no goals, one power-play point and two penalty minutes.
As usual, I misplayed my goalies. I used Frederik Andersen, who gave up four goals in Anaheim's loss. I really had been counting on Ben Scrivens to win for Edmonton against the Sabres, the league's worst team. But he wasn't in goal. The newly reacquired Steve Mason did play for Philadelphia, allowing two goals in a win.
Tuesday was better. Clarke MacArthur helped me pick up a point with 14 penalty minutes that moved me into second in that category. That point lifted my team's total to 67, 7 1/2 points out of second place. I'm also within 20 of first place for the first time in ... a month? two months? My plus/minus is sliding into at least the outer circles of hell. I'm down to plus-45, just 4 ahead of the team behind me and 41 away from the next higher team. My best chances for an additional point are save percentage (trailing by .025) and assists (10 back of the next higher team).
For Wednesday, I decided to go with Joe Pavelski, playing at home against Dallas, than with Corey Perry, who's going against the Blackhawks.
* * *
Basketball. Through Monday, my lead was just 5-1-2 -- with ties in assists and 3-point field goals, and trailing again in field goal percentage. After Tuesday, it appears that I'm up to 6-2, with a lead in assists on the strength of Ricky Rubio's 13. Gerald Green sabotaged me with his 2 for 13 shooting. Jodie Meeks played only a minute before he decided he couldn't play on his sore ankle -- just long enough to miss both of his shots.
Meeks is now off my roster, along with Joe Johnson. In their place, I picked up Jose Calderon to help on 3-pointers and Boris Diaw for his shooting percentage. It doesn't hurt that he's one of my favorite players. What's not to like about a black man named Boris from France? (Especially one who can play.)
I really need to fix my field goal percentage before the playoffs to avoid a premature exit. If I don't I'll have to depend on building up big leads in the counting stats, and late in the week still trying to use only my best shooters.
It's possible that I would make more playoff moves, or that I could stand pat with players I hope will do better.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Rays' Hellickson to miss 6-8 weeks this season

One starting pitcher has had the start of his season moved back. Another appears to have a chance to return to a somewhat improved major league rotation in 2014.
Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson underwent elbow surgery -- not Tommy John surgery, but an arthroscopic procedure to remove loose bodies. Hellickson is expected to miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season, meaning he wouldn't return until well into May.
RHP Jerome Williams was no more than an innings-eater for the Angels last season, but even that level of effectiveness would be an improvement in the Astros rotation. He said he has agreed to a 1-year major league contract, pending a physical exam Wednesday. Houston has not confirmed the assignment. There is no guarantee that Williams would become a starter with the new team; he could have a long-relief role. But there isn't much experienced talent vying for rotation spots.
The Mets signed RHP Kyle Farnsworth, who is beginning to approach the career life span of a left-handed reliever, to a minor league contract. And, no, the Mets themselves are not included among the teams in the minors.
The Rangers have signed RHP Armando Galarraga, who began his major league career with Texas, to a minor league contract. But even with a spring-training invitation to 2B prospect Rougned Odor, bringing the list of invitees to 18, Galarraga won't be among them. Texas also is trying an experiment that has worked with some strong-armed minor leaguers, most notably RHP Alexi Ogando. The Rangers signed former Red Sox OF Che-Hsuan Lin to a minor league contact, with the intetnion of converting him to a pitcher.
* * *
Basketball. I won Week 14 6-2, extending my lead slightly to 9 1/2 games with five weeks to play. I couldn't catch up in rebounds and remained behind in field goal percentage, primarily because Orlando's Victor Oladipo was just 3 for 16 (19%). I did not add a rebounder because the Magic and Celtics were the only teams playing Sunday. My opponent happened to have two front-court players in action, which enabled him to add slightly to his lead in rebounds.
Nine players on my team are active tonight, compared to seven for this week's opponent.
* * *
Hockey. I remained at 66 points, but moved within eight points of second place. The team ahead of me lost a point.
I have made some adjustments in my lineup for each day this week to try to remain on pace to avoid running out of games played before I reach the league limits. Wasn't easy. With just four skating bench spots, and teams squeezing in a lot of games before the Olympics break begins Sunday, I've had to have a couple of games extra for both forwards and defensemen.
There will be some help late in the week because D Zdeno Chara will miss the Bruins' games Thurday and Saturday so he can carry the Slovakian flag at the Olympic opening ceremonies. Keep that in mind if you have him on your roster, and check other Olympians who could miss a game or two.
* * *
Football. My pick of Denver in the "bet a thousand" pool proved to be disastrous. Along with the 13 other people who took the Broncos minus-2, I ended up with $0. Each of us bet everything s/he had. Most of the 20 who went with Seattle also bet everything, but the Seahawks won. No matter how much hypothetical money I wagered, I couldn't have finished in the money with The Broncos failing to cover the spread.
With Seattle as my big game 48 pick in the Pittsburgh pick-'em pool, I placed first. Not sure how much I won, or how much will go to pay for donuts at the company where the pool was hosted.
Bring on the baseball season.
I intend to do just that, with increased attention to fantasy stats and other features leading up to draft day/opening day.
By the way, do the games being played early in Australia make it so you hold your draft earlier. Just wondering. If you're reading this, please let me know about your draft plans. The Inner League Baseball drafts will be a week earlier than usual, on March 16, Sandy Duncan's birthday.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Caribbean Series could be last chance to make a new impression

At this stage of the hot stove season, when the groundhog could have told us (but didn't) that winter's over, there are five possible areas of activity:
1) Signing free agents
2) Signing minor league free agents
3) Signing a veteran who was impressive in winter ball
4) Going to arbitration
5) Avoiding arbitration
6) Designating players for assignment
Forget about 1. It appears that the remaining "name" free agents who would cost the signing team a draft pick will be remaining on the sidelines until after the draft or until a team has an emergency opening caused by an injury.
2 has been slow this weekend.
I'll come back to 3 later.
The 4 hearings are scheduled between now and Feb. 21, but haven't started yet.
Teams are more active in 5. The Nationals avoided arbitration with RHP Doug Fister by signing him to a 1-year contract. The salary wasn't announced, but splitting the difference between the salaries proposed by each side would put it at $7 million. Is Fister worth twice as much as Dodgers catcher? Probably more. But LA and A.J. Ellis agreed on a 2014 contract for $3.555 million plus incentives.
For 6, the Royals designated 2B/OF Emilio Bonifacio for assignment to make room on their 40-man roster for LHP Bruce Chen. Bonifacio's steals give him more value on a fantasy roster than on a major league team. His best bet is as a utilityman for a contending team, which could use him as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.
Now, on to winter ball.
The Caribbean Series began Saturday at Margarita Island in Venezuela. Puerto Rico's champion, Mayaguez, defeated Licey from the Dominican Republic 7-6 in 10 innings, and Hermosillo from the Mexican Pacific League won over Cuban champion Villa Clara 9-4.
Cuba is in the Caribbean Series for the first time since 1960. Because it's a five-team tournament, the top four from a round robin would advance to the semifinals, with those winners meeting Saturday, Feb. 8, for the championship.
Venezuelan champion Hermosillo is scheduled to play its first game at 7:30 p.m. EDT against Cuba. the series is being televised only on ESPN Deportes.
Bonifacio can use his Caribban Series performance to attract another team. His Dominican teammate, free-agent RHP Carlos Marmol, pitched a perfect ninth inning against Puerto Rico.
For Puerto Rico, SS Rey Navarro doubled and scored the winning run. He played during the last three of his seven minor league seasons for the Royals' Double-A affiliate at Northwest Arkansas.The hero of Mexico's opening victory was Chris Roberson, 4 for 5 with a home run and four RBI. He last played in the majors with the 2007 Phillies, and has spent his last three summers with Monterrey of the Mexican League.
Antoher  player for Mexico, Zelous Wheeler, hit a three-run homer in the seventh game of the MPL finals. He has signed a minor league contract with the Yankees.
In Australia, where it's actually summer ball, the regular-season-champion Perth Heat will host the Canberra Cavalry at Barbagallo Ballpark next weekend for the Australian Baseball League championship. 
Perth would seem to be a prohibitive favorite. Brandon Tripp led the league with 41 RBI and was second in homers and batting average. He played at Cal State-Fullerton, and last performed in the minors in 2012 in the Phillis organization. Former major league RHP Mike Ekstrom, released from the Angels organization last summer, led the Australian league with an 0.72 ERA and was 5-1. Jack Frawley, who didn't make it past short-season Class A and independent ball in the U.S., led the league with seven wins. If Canberra can stay close, the Cavalry charge could be led by Sean Toler, who tied for the ABL lead with 11 saves. He pitched at Missouri State and last season with the Kansas City T-Bones of the independent American Association.
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Basketball. I'm down to a 6-2 lead, trailing now in field goal percentage as well as rebounds. I had Anderson Varejao in my lineup Saturday, hoping he would play despite his injury, but he didn't play. Reminds me that I need to check the free agents to see if there's a rebounder who can shoot a little bit playing today.
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Hockey. I gained a point in power-play points, but lost half a point in goalie wins. Both teams that were tied with me two days earlier have new passed me. Tim Thomas let me down, allowing four goals in a loss.