Saturday, November 17, 2018

Not even medium rare

I woke up this morning thinking about the rarity of what I've seen in the last two games I've covered. On Wednesday, the Mavericks allowed a team-record-low 22 points in the second half against the Jazz. On Friday, the Stars and Bruins played three periods with no scoring until Dallas scored an overtime goal to win 1-0.
Each of those events was rare, but how rare?
After Friday's game, I asked Stars goalie Ben Bishop, "Have you been in a game that was zero-zero after three periods before?"
He answered, "Yeah, lots, I think."
I gave him a pass on that answer. He either misunderstood the question, as if I had asked if he'd been in games that were scoreless for a long time, or he was including games from alternate universes.
The Stars have played 4,309 regular-season and playoff games. Friday's game was just their fourth that had gone scoreless for three periods, and Bishop was not around for any of the other three.
Did he have a number of 0-0 games at the University of Maine or with the North American Hockey League's Texas Tornado? Highly unlikely.
It turns out that relatively speaking Bishop has been in lots of NHL games that were scoreless for three periods.
With the Tampa Bay Lightning, Bishop was the goalie in three games that went into overtime 0-0 -- at Anaheim Nov. 12, 2013; vs. Boston March 8, 2016, and at Carolina Dec. 4, 2016 -- and lost all three of those games!
Bishop has been in 336 NHL games, during which he has equaled the number of 0-0-entering-overtime games for the North Stars/Stars franchise over 4,309 games in 51 seasons.
Comparing:
Bishop 1 in 84 games; Stars 1 in 1,077.
Bishop 1 in 1.19 percent of his games; Stars 1 in 0.09 percent of their games.
In other words, Bishop has been in those scoreless games more than 13 times as often as the Stars have.
The Mavericks' milestone on Wednesday was even rarer than the Stars' games with three scoreless periods.
In 39 seasons, Dallas now has allowed an opponent just 22 points in a half once in 3,288 games, or 0.03 percent.
Even if we add the Mavericks' game with the previous record of 23 points allowed in a half, the ratio of games with 22 or 23 points allowed is just twice in 3,288 games, once every 1,644 games or 0.06 percent.

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