It's fitting that I'm resuming this blog where I left off three years ago. This is a rundown on pitchers likely to have better results during the latter two-thirds or so of this season than they did in the first two months.
The first thing that struck me from the previous post was that at that point in the 2015 season, 109 pitchers had thrown enough innings (one per team game) to be on pace to qualify for the ERA title. Just three years later, the number of would-be qualifiers is down to 91 -- a 17 per cent decrease and fewer than three starters per team.
I attribute that decrease to the moronic way pitching staffs are handled these days. Starters are groomed to pitch five or six innings and "keep the team in the game." And far be it from a reliever to work more than one inning. I'll be writing more about that philosophy.
That trend had its roots 20 years or so ago, but its impact seems to be accelerating.
My method uses two simple statistics, opponents' batting average (which I call Hittability) and strikeout/walk ratio (Strikeability).
The eligible starters are broken down into four more-or-less-equal quartiles in each category. Those in the top quartile get 1 point, those in the bottom get 4. The best pitchers are in Quartile 1 in each category, so their total score would be 1+1=2. Those in both bottom quartiles would score 4+4=8. The average score would be 5. Those scoring 3 and 4 would be above average, and those at 6 or 7 would be below average, possibly clinging to their jobs.
My reasoning is that the batting average and K/W ratio measure pitchers' efficiency, and over the course of a season the results in terms of won-lost records and ERA, for example, the cream would rise to the top.
Moving up
Pitchers I expect to win more often over the remainder of this season: Bartolo Colon (really!), Alex Wood, Jameson Taillon, Cole Hamels, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson and Matthew Boyd. Masahiro Tanaka's ERA should be a run or so lower going forward.
Going down
On the other end, there are pitchers who somehow have won games without pitching very well. Expect more losses than wins for Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton. And a decline in strikeouts seems to be foreshadowing an upward spike in Jake Arrieta's ERA.
The cream of the crop
10 pitchers in the top quartile in Hittability (.152-.214 OBA) and Strikeability (4.11-8.80 K/W ratio):
Corey Kluber, Indians
Max Scherzer, Nationals
Justin Verlander, Astros
Gerrit Cole, Astros
Jose Berrios, Twins
Chris Sale, Red Sox
Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks
Luis Severino, Yankees
Jacob deGrom, Mets
Aaron Nola, Phillies
You want those guys on your fantasy teams.
Avoid at any cost
The eight pitchers in the bottom quartile in Hittability (.257-.313 OBA) and Strikeability (1.35-2.14 K/W):
Tyler Anderson, Rockies
Zach Godley, Diamondbacks
Andrew Cashner, Orioles
Danny Duffy, Royals
Homer Bailey, Reds
Sal "Mad Men" Romano, Reds
Lance Lynn, Twins
Ty Blach, Giants
In Hittability, the second quartile pitchers allowed opponents an average between .220 and .238, and the third quartile was from .241 to .255.
The second quartile in Strikeability included pitchers with K/W ratios between 2.74 and 4.00, and the third quartile ranged from 2.18 to 2.73.
The remainder of the pitchers included:
3
(1 in Hittability and 2 in Strikeability)
Zach Greinke, Diamondbacks
Miles Mikolas, Cardinals -- a surprising player to watch
Daniel Mengden, Athletics
Bartolo Colon, Rangers
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
J.A. Happ, Blue Jays
Nick Pivetta, Phillies
(2 and 1)
Sean Manaea, Athletics
Charlie Morton, Astros
James Paxton, Mariners
Blake Snell, Rays
Trevor Bauer, Indians
4
(1 and 3)
Noah Syndergaard, Mets
Alex Wood, Dodgers
Rick Porcello, Red Sox
(2 and 2)
Jakob Junis, Royals
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees
Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox
Jameson Taillon, Pirates
Cole Hamels, Rangers
(3 and 1)
Mike Foltynewicz, Braves
Caleb Smith, Marlins
Tanner Roark, Nationals
Kyle Gibson, Twins
Garrett Richards, Angels
Mike Wacha, Cardinals
Matthew Boyd, Tigers
5
(1 and 4)
Ivan Nova, Pirates
Dylan Bundy, Orioles
(2 and 3)
Carlos Carrasco, Indians
Vincent Velasquez, Phillies
Jose Urena, Marlins
Tyler Skaggs, Angels
Dallas Keuchel, Astros
Luke Weaver, Cardinals
(3 and 2)
Lance McCullers, Astros
Kyle Freeland, Rockies
David Price, Red Sox
Jon Lester, Cubs
(4 and 1)
Sean Newcomb, Braves
6
(2 and 4)
Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers
Julio Teheran, Braves
Chase Anderson, Brewers
James Shields, White Sox
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox
(3 and 3)
Tyson Ross, Padres
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
Chad Kuhl, Pirates
Mike Clevinger, Indians
Clayton Richard, Padres
Jake Odorizzi, Twins
Jake Arrieta, Phillies
(4 and 2)
Kevin Gausman, Orioles
Jon Gray, Rockies
Brent Suter, Brewers
Marco Gonzales, Mariners
Mike Leake, Mariners
Chris Archer, Rays
Brandon McCarthy, Braves
7
(3 and 4)
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Chad Bettis, Rockies
Trevor Williams, Pirates
Derek Holland, Giants
Michael Fulmer, Tigers
Jose Quintana, Cubs
Chris Stratton, Giants
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays
(4 and 3)
Ian Kennedy, Royals
Tyler Mahle, Reds
Luis Castillo, Reds
Jason Hammel, Royals
German Marquez, Rockies
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