Bad news for the Diamondbacks. LHP Patrick Corbin will not be pitching in next weekend's two-game season-opening series in Australia -- and maybe not for quite a while after that. He has been diagnosed with a damaged ulnar collateral ligament.
For their opponents, the Dodgers, OF Carl Crawford will be on paternity leave. He and RHP Dan Haren will not go to Australia.
Corbin left Saturday's start -- expected to be his last before he would pitch the opening game Saturday, March 22 -- in the seventh inning because of a stiff forearm. The UCL is the ligament replaced in Tommy John surgery, and forearm pain is a symptom associated with TJ surgery, so you'll probably want to have a Plan B to replace Corbin on your fantasy team.
And LHP Jonathan Niese, the Mets' planned Opening Day starter, left Sunday's game because of elbow discomfort.
Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker has a tight forearm. By now, you should know the progression: tight forearm > sore elbow > Dr. James Andrews > Tommy John surgery. Parker is scheduled to see Dr. Andrews Monday. Oakland's rotation also will be without RHP A.J. Griffin, who has a strained muscle in his arm and won't throw at all for three weeks. He could return to the rotation in May. An MRI exam showed no structural damage in his elbow. LHP Tommy Milone could be a reasonable replacement for one of them -- but RHP Jesse Chavez, who hasn't been effective even as a reliever, is currently penciled in as the No. 5 starter. Look for a trade, especially if the prospect of Parker and Griffin's return appears bleak a month from now.
Braves RHPs Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are expected to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss this season. That could put additional pressure on Mike Minor to return quickly despite a sore shoulder.
The Blue Jays expect RHP Casey Janssen, their closer, to be ready for Opening Day. He hasn't pitched in a game this spring because of a sore shoulder, but he is expected to resume throwing soon.
Tigers SS Jose Iglesias will begin the season on the disabled list because of a stress reaction in both shins. An ESPN report indicated that Iglesias has a stress fracture, which could keep him out until mid-season. The candidates to take his place are Hernan Perez, Eugenio Suarez and Danny Worth. A few days ago, I speculated that SS Jimmy Rollins, who apparently has outworn his welcome in Philadelphia, could be a trade target for Detroit. SS Freddy Galvis was in the Phillies' starting lineup Sunday.
The Phils have their own pitching injury problems. LHP Cole Hamels, sidelined by a sore shoulder, tossed 27 pitches in the bullpen Sunday, and could have another 'pen session Wednesday. LHP Cliff Lee, who pitched five scoreless innings against the Red Sox Saturday, could be Philadelphia's Opening Day starter.
Reds RHP Homer Bailey was scratched from Saturday's start because of a strained right groin muscle.
Could it get to the point where the majors use pitching machines, the way they do for T-ball graduates?
Remember when Angels OF Josh Hamilton was on crutches because of a strained calf muscle, but would be playing in a couple of weeks? Well, he still isn't playing. He's scheduled to make his exhibition debut Monday. He's saying he could be ready for Opening Day, but I'm not buying that.
Orioles 3B Manny Machado hasn't run in six days because of scar tissue from off-season surgery on his left knee. He said he could be ready to open the season, but don't expect that either.
Through Saturday, Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki hadn't played since being hit in the left calf by a pitch Wednesday. His injury history is cause for concern.
Playing in Panama, Mariano Rivera's native land, the Bronx Bombers were Bronx Bummers Saturday against four Marlins pitchers (of which you've probably heard of only RHP Steve Cishek, who pitched the sixth inning). They completed a no-hitter, against a lineup somewhat short of what New York will put on the field this season. Oh, and Miami won 5-0. Rod Carew Stadium, built in 1999, is much more luxurious than the stadium in Panama City where I saw the '71 Pirates, eventual World Series champions, lose to Pedro Ramos and the Panamanian All-Stars.
Marlins SS Rafael Furcal has a tight left hamstring.
* * *
Basketball. I covered UFC 171 Saturday night, which meant I finished writing after 1 a.m. and didn't get home until 3. Slept in this morning, but went with my game plan of picking up player(s) whose team is in action Sunday to help in whatever categories I needed for this last week of regular-season competition. I came up with Miles Plumlee (the one from Phoenix), who can get some of the rebounds and points I need, with a reasonable field goal percentage. I "signed" the free agent, and dropped Amar'e Stoudemire, because the Knicks aren't playing today. Then I looked at the lineup, and Plumlee was listed on my bench. Then I realized that it was the lineup for Monday. Because some games already had started by noon CDT, the lineup was locked until tomorrow.
Could be a case of snooze, I lose.
So I will have Plumlee Monday, and may be able to reacquire Stoudemire, who won't play again until Wednesday anyway.
This week's competition is 4-4. I trail by .0022 in field goal percentage, three 3-pointers, 27 rebounds and 21 points as I write this. I also lead by just five assists and six steals. I have seven active players to my opponent's six. My best players going are probably Chris Bosh and Serge Ibaka; it scares me a bit to be playing against James Harden.
Right now, I have the Duke-Virginia game on the TV. How many Plumlees are there, anyway?
* * *
Hockey. It's still kind of a back-and-forth situation, where I gain a point and then lose it back. Still mired in third place with 65 points. Oh, at the moment 65.5 because I picked up half a point in ATOI. On a daily basis, that's almost totally dependent on having more defensemen than forwards, and on not having someone get hurt early in a game.
The league leaders remain out of reach at 89. The second-place team is at 76, but I don't think totally out of reach because his skaters have played 76 games more than mine so he'll run out of games sooner than I will. I'm more concerned that the fourth-place team, currently at 56, could catch me.
I am really beginning to hate fantasy goalies. Steve Mason shut out the Penguins Saturday, and gave up only one goal in the first period Sunday. So I turned on the Flyers-Pittsburgh game, and in the Penguins' first rush up the ice they scored their third goal of the game against Mason. I also saw him in person giving up four goals in about four heartbeats against the Stars, which prompted me to drop him for a while. When Mason hasn't been on my roster, he has been spectacular. And of course, Tim Thomas won a game when I didn't start him, then gave up two third-period goals in a loss Friday when I did start him. Don't get me started on Ben Scrivens or any of the other half-dozen or dozen goalies who have disgraced my roster but played well when they weren't on my team. Hmmm. Let me check on Martin Brodeur again ... His save percentage is no better than the Texas Puckin Penguins', but his GAA is 2.50. I'll have to cogitate on this one.
Showing posts with label Miles Plumlee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miles Plumlee. Show all posts
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Simple plus/minus system for fantasy basketball
When I was inspired -- pretty much impulsively -- to join a fantasy basketball league, I wondered whether the plus/minus system I use as a rough guideline who's playing well would work to evaluate players for fantasy basketball.
The thinking was that we know who are the scorers, but when we're trying to accumulate a mashup of statistics for a Rotisserie (R)-style scoring system, the choices aren't so obvious.
By looking at a typical expanded box score for a game -- or a season to date -- we can come up with numerical plus/minus figures for any player.
That number shows whether players do more good or bad things for their team. Take the positive -- shots made, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks -- and deduct the negative -- missed shots, turnovers and fouls.
For this study, I took the top group of five or six players in the positive stats -- scoring, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. That provides somewhat of a cross section of player types -- shooters, point guards, rebounders, defenders.
In all, I compared the totals for 25 of those category leaders, some in more than one category, and one mistake (Mason Plumlee, whose numbers through Nov. 19 I looked up instead of Miles Plumlee's).
I think this plus-minus assessment is a reasonable guideline. It includes just 26 of the 450 players on NBA rosters (6%), but if you consider that maybe nine players from each team could even be considered for fantasy purposes, that's more like 10%.
The players in the study that we'd expect to be early fantasy draft picks are on top of this list. Keep in mind that these aren't the top 25 or 26 players in the league. Some acknowledged stars, such as Chris Bosh and Dirk Nowitzki, weren's included in the study.
Here's the list:
Kevin Love, Minnesota 220
Chris Paul, LA Clippers 199
Anthony Davis, New Orleans 181
LeBron James, Miami 164
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City 162
Dwight Howard, Houston 152
Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, LA Clippers 147
Nikola Vucevic, Orlando 140
Andre Drummond, Detroit 133
Ty Lawson, Denver 125
Ricky Rubio, Minnesota 122
Roy Hibbert, Indiana 114
James Harden, Houston 112
John Wall, Washington 104
Jeff Teague, Atlanta 101
Evan Turner, Philadelphia 95
Stephen Curry, Golden State, and Brook Lopez, Brooklyn 91
Carmelo Anthony, New York 83
Dwyane Wade, Miami, and Miles Plumlee, Phoenix 72
Eric Gordon, New Orleans 59
Trevor Ariza, Washington 41
Deron Williams, Brooklyn 30
Mason Plumlee, Brooklyn 19
A couple of notes here.
Unless you have a specific need in a category, it's best to avoid players whose value is mostly in one area, such as assists of blocks. That would be like having Juan Pierre on your fantasy baseball team and expecting him to hit for power.
Subtracting missed field goals and missed free throws can point out where a scorer or some other specialist can help you in the shooting percentage categories. Examples: Anthony is -33 and point guards Wall -44 and Rubio -30 on field goals; big man Drummond is -11 at the foul line. Of Durant's +162 total, 98 are from his free throw margin. That also shows that he gets to the line a lot. James is +39 from the field, which tells me that he could be a little less selective and still score more points.
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