Thoughts on Game 5

I’d like to say I saw the Giants coming a year ago.
It was in Scottsdale during spring training, and I was impressed with Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner and a number of young players I saw there. In fact, I saw enough from players such as Sandoval and Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholtz that I predicted San Francisco would have the majors’ most improved offense in 2009.
That turned out to be an oversight, even though Sandoval was one of the National League’s most exciting hitters last season.
Over a period of several years covering spring training in Arizona, I had chances to observe pitchers such as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum on the field and to talk with them in the locker room. Cain caught me by surprise a few years back. He could pitch, but I had doubts about him because he was so clearly out of shape. Lincecum was pretty much what you see on TV – happy, smiling, bouncing around and leaving us shaking our heads trying to figure out how such a little guy could throw so hard without having his arm come out of its socket.
During the same span, I saw a lot of the Rangers in Arizona and for the last five years back home in Texas. Their arrival was easier to anticipate than the Giants’ youth movement because the Rangers had some spectacular prospects. Most notable were pitchers Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland. There were others – Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland and a seeming tidal wave of pitching prospects that included Blake Beavan, Tanner Scheppers, Josh Lueke and Michael Kirkman.
My rule of thumb is that if half of the top prospects actually pan out, that’s a good track record. Clearly, and despite Holland’s control breakdown in World Series Game 2, Texas has done player development well.
GM Jon Daniels deserves whatever accolades come his way, and probably more. He traded away a passel of prospects – including Smoak, Beavan and Lueke – to obtain LHP Cliff Lee and C Bengie Molina and RF Jeff Francoeur. Texas also picked up 1B/3B Jorge Cantu and SS Cristian Guzman, whose impact was negligible. But for the most part, Daniels’ prospects-for-proven talent tack worked well.
Again, the Giants’ player moves were more subtle. But in the end, the additions GM Brian Sabean made were more important toward a short-term goal of winning the World Series. A goal that either general manager probably would admit was more dream than reality back in March and April.
Anyway, this year’s Giants picked up retreads and castoffs such as Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell and Cody Ross and Javier Lopez. Mixing those players with the prospects I saw in Arizona in March 2009 proved to be an inexpensive, and winning, combination.
It occurred to me that the Rangers’ trades and the Giants’ deals fell into the two categories I’ve found are successful in fantasy leagues. Those are the Big Deals, bringing in a superstar as represented by Lee, and the Small Moves, improving a team incrementally and with little cost. I won this year in a league I had no business winning because, needing stolen bases, I acquired Scott Podsednik. In a weak division, my team held on even though Podsednik barely played in September.
The Rangers also won in a weak division, but the Giants’ National League West was hardly weak. The Padres (and surprisingly the Rockies) had young starting pitching that could rival San Francisco’s.
In the end, despite the hitting heroics of Ross and Edgar Renteria, pitching won the 2010 World Series.
Casual baseball fans asked me if it was common for a team’s batters to fail as spectacularly as the Rangers’ had. Thinking back to their being swept at home in a four-game series by the Orioles and other offensive breakdowns, I replied that they had several stretches of games when they didn’t hit.
Then I threw out the answer, which was so obvious once it hit me in the face:
The Rangers were facing much better pitching on a consistent basis in the World Series.
While they were compiling the majors’ best team batting average against a steady diet of second-line starters from the Mariners and Angels, and even facing some marginal major league starters in the playoffs against the vaunted Yankees and Rays, the Giants were going to battle every day against top pitchers. Mat Latos, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa. In the NLCS, against Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Far more daunting than a worn-out C.C. Sabathia, a not-quite-there Phil Hughes and an elderly Andy Pettitte.
As I’ve pointed out before, defense played a big role throughout the Giants’ run to their first World Series win since they shocked the invincible 1954 Indians (after all, they beat out the Yankees, the only interruption in their run of 9 pennants in 10 years).
The Rangers’ impatience and all-or-nothing swinging hurt them too.
Both teams had good pitchers, but the Giants’ were clearly better in this series. In a different series, Cliff Lee might win twice over Tim Lincecum.
But in the right now, the difference was a simple case of good pitching beating good (if somewhat flawed) hitting.