Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Strasburg's debut offers some hope for Nats

The much awaited debut of Nationals RHP Stephen Strasburg went off pretty much without a hitch for him. In two innings, he gave up just two hits and struck out two batters.
An even better performance was by his starting opponent, Tigers RHP Rick Porcello, himself a highly touted prospect not long ago. His pitching line in Detroit’s 9-4 victory was 320001.
That line was the same as that of Red Sox RHP Tim Wakefield, who wasn’t even a prospect 20 years ago. Boston shut out the Marlins 9-0.
Another up-and-coming pitcher having a good day was Rockies RHP Ubaldo Jimenez. His control wasn’t sharp, but his overall line was 310032 in a 12-0 whitewash of the Dodgers.
When will the Mets get some good news? They lost to the Astros 8-4, with Houston scoring three times in the first inning against LHP Johan Santana.
Phillies RHP Roy Halladay showed some power pitching with a line of 330005. Other notes from that game: 1. OF Jayson Werth hit a home run against Braves RHP Kenshin Kawakami. 2. The winning pitcher in Philadelphia’s 7-4 victory was RHP Danys Baez, who pitched a scoreless inning. He hasn’t been a fantasy factor in years, which just makes him all the more attractive as a sleeper. Keep your eye on him. On the other hand, we think Werth will be overvalued in the wake of his 36 homers during a career season when he turned 30.
More home run news: In the Pirates’ 12-7 victory over the Yankees, DH Nick Johnson hit his first two homers this spring for New York and RF Garrett Jones hit his second for the Bucs. 1B Derrek Lee hit his second, but the Cubs still lost to the Brewers 6-3. Kevin Kouzmanoff hit his first for the Athletics in a cursed 8-8, nine-inning tie. Oakland plans to use Kouzmanoff as its regular third baseman, with 3B Eric Chavez moving to first base. That raises two questions: 1. Can Chavez avoid injury enough to play regularly? and 2. What does that mean for 1B Daric Barton? Our thinking is that Barton could be a productive fantasy player if he’s traded to a team in a hitters’ park.
Sample Scouting Report:
Jayson Werth
Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 225 B: R Age: 30
{2010} Werth had a breakthrough season in 2009, but it’s likely to be his career year. So if fantasy owners value him based on ’09, they almost certainly will be disappointed. For a reason why, look to OF Ryan Ludwick. His breakthrough 2008 season was even better than Werth’s except for the stolen bases; .299, 37 homers, 113 RBI, 104 runs, four steals. And he was nearly eight weeks younger then than Werth was last year. Ludwick’s ’09: .265, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 63 runs, four steals. Still good – and Werth still could be good if he avoids the injuries that have plagued him; last year was the first when he wasn’t on the disabled list – but just not 36 homers, 99 RBI and 20 steals good. You’ll see Werth overrated in most projections, auctions and drafts. Born May 20, 1979. 2009: Phillies, 571 AB, .268 BA, 36 HR, 99 RBI, 20 SB, 98 R.
Projection
AB: 482 BA: .269 HR: 27 RBI: 81 SB: 16 R: 77

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