Pitching forecast: Kluber, Scherzer solid; Colon, Tanaka should improve; beware King Felix, Arrieta

It's fitting that I'm resuming this blog where I left off three years ago. This is a rundown on pitchers likely to have better results during the latter two-thirds or so of this season than they did in the first two months.
The first thing that struck me from the previous post was that at that point in the 2015 season, 109 pitchers had thrown enough innings (one per team game) to be on pace to qualify for the ERA title. Just three years later, the number of would-be qualifiers is down to 91 -- a 17 per cent decrease and fewer than three starters per team.
I attribute that decrease to the moronic way pitching staffs are handled these days. Starters are groomed to pitch five or six innings and "keep the team in the game." And far be it from a reliever to work more than one inning. I'll be writing more about that philosophy.
That trend had its roots 20 years or so ago, but its impact seems to be accelerating.
My method uses two simple statistics, opponents' batting average (which I call Hittability) and strikeout/walk ratio (Strikeability).
The eligible starters are broken down into four more-or-less-equal quartiles in each category. Those in the top quartile get 1 point, those in the bottom get 4. The best pitchers are in Quartile 1 in each category, so their total score would be 1+1=2. Those in both bottom quartiles would score 4+4=8. The average score would be 5. Those scoring 3 and 4 would be above average, and those at 6 or 7 would be below average, possibly clinging to their jobs.
My reasoning is that the batting average and K/W ratio measure pitchers' efficiency, and over the course of a season the results in terms of won-lost records and ERA, for example, the cream would rise to the top.
Moving up
Pitchers I expect to win more often over the remainder of this season: Bartolo Colon (really!), Alex Wood, Jameson Taillon, Cole Hamels, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson and Matthew Boyd. Masahiro Tanaka's ERA should be a run or so lower going forward.
Going down
On the other end, there are pitchers who somehow have won games without pitching very well. Expect more losses than wins for Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton. And a decline in strikeouts seems to be foreshadowing an upward spike in Jake Arrieta's ERA.
The cream of the crop
10 pitchers in the top quartile in Hittability (.152-.214 OBA) and Strikeability (4.11-8.80 K/W ratio):
Corey Kluber, Indians
Max Scherzer, Nationals
Justin Verlander, Astros
Gerrit Cole, Astros
Jose Berrios, Twins
Chris Sale, Red Sox
Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks
Luis Severino, Yankees
Jacob deGrom, Mets
Aaron Nola, Phillies
You want those guys on your fantasy teams.
Avoid at any cost
The eight pitchers in the bottom quartile in Hittability (.257-.313 OBA) and Strikeability (1.35-2.14 K/W):
Tyler Anderson, Rockies
Zach Godley, Diamondbacks
Andrew Cashner, Orioles
Danny Duffy, Royals
Homer Bailey, Reds
Sal "Mad Men" Romano, Reds
Lance Lynn, Twins
Ty Blach, Giants
In Hittability, the second quartile pitchers allowed opponents an average between .220 and .238, and the third quartile was from .241 to .255.
The second quartile in Strikeability included pitchers with K/W ratios between 2.74 and 4.00, and the third quartile ranged from 2.18 to 2.73.
The remainder of the pitchers included:
3
(1 in Hittability and 2 in Strikeability)
Zach Greinke, Diamondbacks
Miles Mikolas, Cardinals -- a surprising player to watch
Daniel Mengden, Athletics
Bartolo Colon, Rangers
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
J.A. Happ, Blue Jays
Nick Pivetta, Phillies
(2 and 1)
Sean Manaea, Athletics
Charlie Morton, Astros
James Paxton, Mariners
Blake Snell, Rays
Trevor Bauer, Indians
4
(1 and 3)
Noah Syndergaard, Mets
Alex Wood, Dodgers
Rick Porcello, Red Sox
(2 and 2)
Jakob Junis, Royals
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees
Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox
Jameson Taillon, Pirates
Cole Hamels, Rangers
(3 and 1)
Mike Foltynewicz, Braves
Caleb Smith, Marlins
Tanner Roark, Nationals
Kyle Gibson, Twins
Garrett Richards, Angels
Mike Wacha, Cardinals
Matthew Boyd, Tigers
5
(1 and 4)
Ivan Nova, Pirates
Dylan Bundy, Orioles
(2 and 3)
Carlos Carrasco, Indians
Vincent Velasquez, Phillies
Jose Urena, Marlins
Tyler Skaggs, Angels
Dallas Keuchel, Astros
Luke Weaver, Cardinals
(3 and 2)
Lance McCullers, Astros
Kyle Freeland, Rockies
David Price, Red Sox
Jon Lester, Cubs
(4 and 1)
Sean Newcomb, Braves
6
(2 and 4)
Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers
Julio Teheran, Braves
Chase Anderson, Brewers
James Shields, White Sox
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox
(3 and 3)
Tyson Ross, Padres
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
Chad Kuhl, Pirates
Mike Clevinger, Indians
Clayton Richard, Padres
Jake Odorizzi, Twins
Jake Arrieta, Phillies
(4 and 2)
Kevin Gausman, Orioles
Jon Gray, Rockies
Brent Suter, Brewers
Marco Gonzales, Mariners
Mike Leake, Mariners
Chris Archer, Rays
Brandon McCarthy, Braves
7
(3 and 4)
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Chad Bettis, Rockies
Trevor Williams, Pirates
Derek Holland, Giants
Michael Fulmer, Tigers
Jose Quintana, Cubs
Chris Stratton, Giants
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays
(4 and 3)
Ian Kennedy, Royals
Tyler Mahle, Reds
Luis Castillo, Reds
Jason Hammel, Royals
German Marquez, Rockies

Hittability and Strikeability rankings, and what those could mean

This post is primarily a list. It includes the rankings of the 109 pitchers who, as of the Memorial Day weekend, were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title.
The pitchers are divided into four relatively equal groups, or quartiles, in each of two statistics. Those measures are opponents' batting average (Hittability, or Hit) and strikeout:walk ratio (Strikeability, or Strike). The pitchers are assigned a number from 1 (top quartile) to 4 (bottom quartile). Those numbers are added for the total rating.
Thus, the best overall rating is 2 (1 in Hit plus 1 in Strike equals 2), and the worst is 8 (4+4=8).
The lists follow.
Above average
2
(1 Hit, 1 Strike)
Jason Hammel
Max Scherzer
Matt Harvey
Johnny Cueto
Jake Odorizzi
Felix Hernandez
Zack Greinke
3
(1 Hit, 2 Strike)
Madison Bumgarner
James Shields
Clayton Kershaw
Gerrit Cole
Jake Arrieta
Jacob deGrom
Rubby De La Rosa
(2 Hit, 1 Strike)
Chris Archer
Aaron Harang
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Sanchez
Sonny Gray
Cole Hamels
4
(1 Hit, 3 Strike)
Bartolo Colon
Michael Pineda
Corey Kluber
Danny Salazar
Carlos Carrasco
Matt Shoemaker
Collin McHugh
David Price
Kyle Hendricks
Jeff Samardzija
(2 Hit, 2 Strike)
Chris Sale
Dan Haren
J.A. Happ
Colby Lewis
A.J. Burnett
(3 Hit, 1 Strike)
Wei-Yin Chen
Shelby Miller
Chase Anderson
Michael Wacha
Francisco Liriano
Jimmy Nelson
Trevor Bauer
Dallas Keuchel
Miguel Gonzalez

Average
5
(1 Hit, 4 Strike)
Phil Hughes
Trevor May
C.C. Sabathia
(2 Hit, 3 Strike)
Clay Buchholz
Andrew Cashner
Lance Lynn
Kyle Lohse
Jon Lester
Jordan Zimmermann
Jered Weaver
Chris Heston
Jose Quintana
Rick Porcello
(3 Hit, 2 Strike)
C.J. Wilson
Scott Kazmir
John Lackey
Alfredo Simon
Shane Greene
Joe Kelly
Carlos Martinez
Tyson Ross
(4 Hit, 1 Strike)
Hector Santiago
Nathan Karns
Edinson Volquez
Garrett Richards
Anthony DeSclafani
Tim Lincecum

Below average
6
(2 Hit, 4 Strike)
Josh Collmenter
Stephen Strasburg
Brett Anderson
Mike Fiers
Scott Feldman
Nathan Eovaldi
(3 Hit, 3 Strike)
Yordano Ventura
Yovani Gallardo
(4 Hit, 2 Strike)
Tom Koehler
James Paxton
Nick Martinez
Mike Leake
Ryan Vogelsong
R.A. Dickey
Anibal Sanchez
7
(3 Hit, 4 Strike)
Drew Hutchison
Wily Peralta
Julio Teheran
Gio Gonzalez
Jerome Williams
Eric Stults
Jeff Locke
Jon Niese
(4 Hit, 3 Strike)
John Danks
Roberto Hernandez
Matt Garza
Adam Warren
Mike Pelfrey
Kyle Gibson
8
(4 Hit, 4 Strike)
Jeremy Hellickson
Alex Wood
Mark Buehrle
Tim Hudson
Kyle Kendrick
Jordan Lyles
Jeremy Guthrie
Chris Tillman
Kyle Lobstein
If you look closely at individual pitchers on the list, you can get some idea why some of them are doing well this season or why they aren't.
For example, look at C.C. Sabathia on the list of average pitchers rated 5. Why is he just an average pitcher, when he once was one of the majors' best. It's right there in his rankings. He's still difficult to hit, still in the first quartile. But he's in the 4 (bottom) group in Strikeability. That can mean he's having control problems, but it also could indicate that he's no longer able to put batters away by striking them out.
A note on Jeremy Guthrie: He ranked this badly even before giving up 11 runs in a start against the Yankees.
Also, I was listening on Sirius XM radio to a Twins game started by Kyle Gibson. During the pregame show, Minnesota's announcers were going on about his ERA and the wins he'd provided. I was thinking, without being able to look at my rankings, that he was pretty low in the Hittability/Strikeability combo. You'll see him on the 7 list. That portends struggles for him during the remainder of the season. Struggles the team's broadcasters never saw coming.
I'll have another post about what the collective individual rankings might mean in the pennant races. And this weekend, I intend to come up with similar rankings for batters, and what those might mean for them and their team.

Pitchers you should pick up, others you should avoid

Every year on the Memorial Day weekend, I study which pitchers are likely to improve their results based on two metrics that show how well they have been pitching. At the same time, I come up with a list of pitchers whose performance is likely to fall off during the final two-thirds of the season.
Some of the pithcers on the way up are pretty obvious. Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber weren't winning early. But they are Cy Young Award winners. And the metrics I use -- opponents' batting average, or Hittability, and strikeout:walk ratio, or Strikeability -- showed that both were pitching well during April and May.
In the study, I included the 109 pitchers who at that point were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title (1 inning per team game). I compared their Hittability and Strikeability ratings with their standing in strikeouts and wins. Pitchers ranking high in combined Hittability and Strikeability but low in the counting stats are likely to be rewarded with better results going forward.
Others on the good list are Jimmy Nelson, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, Chase Anderson and Michael Wacha.
If any of those pitchers are a product of a small sample size or luck, rather than talent, I'd suggest Nelson, Anderson and possibly Sanchez. The others all have a track record.
There are just two pitchers I would expect to fall this season. Usually, there are seven or eight pitchers, sometimes even more on the bad list. This year's players due for a fall are Mark Buehrle and Mike Fiers.  Buehrle was easy to see coming. In recent years, he has started fast and finished poorly. I remember telling someone it was OK to draft him, but he should be traded by midseason or the first sign that he was faltering.
In my rankings, I divide players into four groups as equal as possible, based on where they stand in each category. Buehrle began the year as one of the majors' biggest winners, even though he ranked in the bottom quarter in both Hittability and Strikeability. That made him not only an obvious candidate to fade, but also one of nine pitchers who should be replaced in the rotation as soon as someone better could be found.
There are seven pitchers in the top one-fourth in both Hittability and Strikeability. They are also good bets for success between now and October: Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer (another Cy Young Award winner), Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi, Felix Hernandez (Cy!) and Zack Greinke. The biggest surprises on that list are Hammel and Odorizzi, who is one of the reasons why the Rays still are contending in the American League East.
They are players you should seek to acquire in your fantasy leagues, if you don't already have them.
Pitchers to avoid or to dump, in addition to Buehrle, are Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Tim Hudson, Kyle Kendrick, Jordan Lyles, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman and Kyle Lobstein.
Hellickson has been at the top of the Hittability and Strikeability lists in years past. I'd suggest that he and Tillman might have previously undisclosed injuries. Hudson, Guthrie and Buehrle may simply be at the end of the line.
I'll have more posts on my Hittability/Strikeability ratings, and how they can be used to predict future performance.