This post is primarily a list. It includes the rankings of the 109 pitchers who, as of the Memorial Day weekend, were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title.
The pitchers are divided into four relatively equal groups, or quartiles, in each of two statistics. Those measures are opponents' batting average (Hittability, or Hit) and strikeout:walk ratio (Strikeability, or Strike). The pitchers are assigned a number from 1 (top quartile) to 4 (bottom quartile). Those numbers are added for the total rating.
Thus, the best overall rating is 2 (1 in Hit plus 1 in Strike equals 2), and the worst is 8 (4+4=8).
The lists follow.
Above average
2
(1 Hit, 1 Strike)
Jason Hammel
Max Scherzer
Matt Harvey
Johnny Cueto
Jake Odorizzi
Felix Hernandez
Zack Greinke
3
(1 Hit, 2 Strike)
Madison Bumgarner
James Shields
Clayton Kershaw
Gerrit Cole
Jake Arrieta
Jacob deGrom
Rubby De La Rosa
(2 Hit, 1 Strike)
Chris Archer
Aaron Harang
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Sanchez
Sonny Gray
Cole Hamels
4
(1 Hit, 3 Strike)
Bartolo Colon
Michael Pineda
Corey Kluber
Danny Salazar
Carlos Carrasco
Matt Shoemaker
Collin McHugh
David Price
Kyle Hendricks
Jeff Samardzija
(2 Hit, 2 Strike)
Chris Sale
Dan Haren
J.A. Happ
Colby Lewis
A.J. Burnett
(3 Hit, 1 Strike)
Wei-Yin Chen
Shelby Miller
Chase Anderson
Michael Wacha
Francisco Liriano
Jimmy Nelson
Trevor Bauer
Dallas Keuchel
Miguel Gonzalez
Average
5
(1 Hit, 4 Strike)
Phil Hughes
Trevor May
C.C. Sabathia
(2 Hit, 3 Strike)
Clay Buchholz
Andrew Cashner
Lance Lynn
Kyle Lohse
Jon Lester
Jordan Zimmermann
Jered Weaver
Chris Heston
Jose Quintana
Rick Porcello
(3 Hit, 2 Strike)
C.J. Wilson
Scott Kazmir
John Lackey
Alfredo Simon
Shane Greene
Joe Kelly
Carlos Martinez
Tyson Ross
(4 Hit, 1 Strike)
Hector Santiago
Nathan Karns
Edinson Volquez
Garrett Richards
Anthony DeSclafani
Tim Lincecum
Below average
6
(2 Hit, 4 Strike)
Josh Collmenter
Stephen Strasburg
Brett Anderson
Mike Fiers
Scott Feldman
Nathan Eovaldi
(3 Hit, 3 Strike)
Yordano Ventura
Yovani Gallardo
(4 Hit, 2 Strike)
Tom Koehler
James Paxton
Nick Martinez
Mike Leake
Ryan Vogelsong
R.A. Dickey
Anibal Sanchez
7
(3 Hit, 4 Strike)
Drew Hutchison
Wily Peralta
Julio Teheran
Gio Gonzalez
Jerome Williams
Eric Stults
Jeff Locke
Jon Niese
(4 Hit, 3 Strike)
John Danks
Roberto Hernandez
Matt Garza
Adam Warren
Mike Pelfrey
Kyle Gibson
8
(4 Hit, 4 Strike)
Jeremy Hellickson
Alex Wood
Mark Buehrle
Tim Hudson
Kyle Kendrick
Jordan Lyles
Jeremy Guthrie
Chris Tillman
Kyle Lobstein
If you look closely at individual pitchers on the list, you can get some idea why some of them are doing well this season or why they aren't.
For example, look at C.C. Sabathia on the list of average pitchers rated 5. Why is he just an average pitcher, when he once was one of the majors' best. It's right there in his rankings. He's still difficult to hit, still in the first quartile. But he's in the 4 (bottom) group in Strikeability. That can mean he's having control problems, but it also could indicate that he's no longer able to put batters away by striking them out.
A note on Jeremy Guthrie: He ranked this badly even before giving up 11 runs in a start against the Yankees.
Also, I was listening on Sirius XM radio to a Twins game started by Kyle Gibson. During the pregame show, Minnesota's announcers were going on about his ERA and the wins he'd provided. I was thinking, without being able to look at my rankings, that he was pretty low in the Hittability/Strikeability combo. You'll see him on the 7 list. That portends struggles for him during the remainder of the season. Struggles the team's broadcasters never saw coming.
I'll have another post about what the collective individual rankings might mean in the pennant races. And this weekend, I intend to come up with similar rankings for batters, and what those might mean for them and their team.
Showing posts with label Kyle Gibson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kyle Gibson. Show all posts
Saturday, June 6, 2015
Saturday, April 26, 2014
It's time to start looking at fast starts
The first month of the season has gotten away from me.
It has been a busy time -- with hockey and basketball coverage, the Final Four, my wedding and by my count so far five Rangers games and eight RoughRiders.
I've had an unusual Friday and Saturday off from any pro sports coverage -- though I did watch parts of the Stars and Rangers games, and the end of Blues-Blackhawks last night after a lengthy nap.
I'll be back at it Sunday with Stars playoff game six, Monday with Mavericks playoff game four, Tuesday with possibly high school softball playoffs and Wednesday with Rangers-Athletics.
Sunday also will be the end of Week 4 of the 26-week major league season.
My rule of thumb for fantasy baseball is not to make major moves until the season is five weeks old, so now is the time for me to be thinking about some possible moves.
My teams, by the way, are scuffling in the middle of the pack in all three leagues. I expect to have more specifics for you Monday after I've compiled the Week 4 stats.
After five weeks, I believe there is enough information to make informed decisions about which veterans might be losing it, which rookies are more than a flash in the pan and which players may have physical ailments that are holding them back and could cost them playing time.
If you go to mlb.com these days, you can find information encouraging you to vote for the All-Star starters. To me, it's too early to do something like that.
Remember the outrage last year when Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig wasn't on the All-Star team? Aside from the fact that about 50 players per league get on the team either from the original selections or as fill-ins for guys who beg out of the game, Puig really didn't belong in the game because his incredibly hot start was just that: a hot start. Small sample size, you know.
His 2014 start, dotted with the kind of inconsistent play and punctuality that seems to bother managers, Puig is batting .263. He has hit three home runs and stolen one base, but that's hardly All-Star caliber.
Here's another guy whose career seems to be going in the opposite direction: Rangers LHP Martin Perez.
I've been seeing him pitch for the last five seasons, mostly in the minors. During that time, Perez has shown flashes of competence, if not brilliance, but mostly inconsistency. That's inconsistent not just from game to game but often from inning to inning.
My opinion of Perez changed with his shutout of the White Sox April 18. It was an easy 12-0 victory, but it was also the first American League shutout or even complete game this season and the kind of game when his concentration might have lapsed in the past. He was economical with his pitches, and he threw ground ball after ground ball.
The AL's next shutout came five days later, when Perez pitched another three-hitter in Oakland. That stretched his winning streak to his last four starts and his scoreless streak to 26 innings. It was a fairly tense 3-0 win; the type of game when in the past one bad inning could have blown up a well pitched game.
Perez has matured, at a time when Texas needed him to shore up an injury-depleted rotation.
Now RHP Colby Lewis is back, if not in mid-season form. LHP Matt Harrison is scheduled for his first start this weekend. I saw him being brilliant in eight scoreless innings in his final rehab start for Double-A Frisco. Granted, it was against Texas League batters, but Harrison's approach was impeccable. In another couple of months, LHP Derek Holland will have recovered from his knee surgery. And until now, this paragraph hasn't included the Rangers' ace, RHP Yu Darvish.
Now, here's a preview of the kinds of things I'll be looking for in evaluating players at the five-week mark.
I look for batters with the best walk:strikeout ratios. The five major league batters with the most walks so far all have walked more often than they have struck out -- Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista 27:18 (or 1.50), Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen 21:16, Indians 3B/C Carlos Santana 20:19, Athletics SS Jed Lowrie 19:10 (1.90) and Reds 1B Joey Votto 19:18.
Three of those are no surprise. Lowrie started fast last season, but faded; he also could be a relatively low-investment shortstop, say if Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is injured again. Expect Santana's ratio to decrease. He's batting .133, so his team will expect him to be more aggressive to raise that average. He can't help you much now, but keep in mind that if he begins hitting he also will exercise pretty good strike-zone judgment.
Next in line in walks are Tulowitzki himself at 17:11, and Twins SS Brian Dozier with 17 walks but 24 strikeouts. Dozier impressed me last season as a much better player than I expected until I saw him. He has improbable statistics this year: six stolen bases and seven homers, but a mere nine RBI and a .222 average. He's a player likely to do worse if his team plays well. If Minnesota becomes a contender, pitchers would work him more closely, respecting his power, instead of giving him fastballs to hit in blowouts.
I've also looked at my pitching leading indicators. It's clear that pitchers' K:W ratios are out of whack because of small sample sizes. The leaders are Phillies LHP Cliff Lee 19.00, Yankees RHP Masahiro Tanaka 17.50, Giants RHP Tim Hudson 12.50, Mariners RHP Feliz Hernandez 10.75 and Rays LHP David Price 10.00. If any of them finish the season with ratios even half as high, they would be having an exceptional year. But the early returns indicate that the Yanks and Giants made good off-season signings.
The leaders in opponents' batting average are mixed between top pitchers and likely pretenders: Reds RHP Johnny Cueto .140, Braves RHP Aaron Harang .143, Phillies LHP Cole Hamels .151, somebody's RHP Garrett Richards .155 and Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright .165.
At the opposite end are mostly some surprising pitchers: Twins RHP Ricky Nolasco .347, Reds RHP Homer Bailey .345, Orioles LHP Wei-chin Chen .330, Twins RHP Kevin Correia .327 and Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner .314. In the next few weeks, expect to see at least two among Nolasco, Bailey, Chen and Bumgarner to go on the disabled list.
The low-end K:W pitchers are Astros RHP Scott Feldman 1.00, White Sox LHP John Danks 1.08, Phillies RHP A.J. Burnett and Twins RHP Kyle Gibson 1.18 and Orioles RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 1.24. Most of them have seen better days than they'll have this season. Gibson is off to a good start he might not be able to maintain with such a low ratio.
It has been a busy time -- with hockey and basketball coverage, the Final Four, my wedding and by my count so far five Rangers games and eight RoughRiders.
I've had an unusual Friday and Saturday off from any pro sports coverage -- though I did watch parts of the Stars and Rangers games, and the end of Blues-Blackhawks last night after a lengthy nap.
I'll be back at it Sunday with Stars playoff game six, Monday with Mavericks playoff game four, Tuesday with possibly high school softball playoffs and Wednesday with Rangers-Athletics.
Sunday also will be the end of Week 4 of the 26-week major league season.
My rule of thumb for fantasy baseball is not to make major moves until the season is five weeks old, so now is the time for me to be thinking about some possible moves.
My teams, by the way, are scuffling in the middle of the pack in all three leagues. I expect to have more specifics for you Monday after I've compiled the Week 4 stats.
After five weeks, I believe there is enough information to make informed decisions about which veterans might be losing it, which rookies are more than a flash in the pan and which players may have physical ailments that are holding them back and could cost them playing time.
If you go to mlb.com these days, you can find information encouraging you to vote for the All-Star starters. To me, it's too early to do something like that.
Remember the outrage last year when Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig wasn't on the All-Star team? Aside from the fact that about 50 players per league get on the team either from the original selections or as fill-ins for guys who beg out of the game, Puig really didn't belong in the game because his incredibly hot start was just that: a hot start. Small sample size, you know.
His 2014 start, dotted with the kind of inconsistent play and punctuality that seems to bother managers, Puig is batting .263. He has hit three home runs and stolen one base, but that's hardly All-Star caliber.
Here's another guy whose career seems to be going in the opposite direction: Rangers LHP Martin Perez.
I've been seeing him pitch for the last five seasons, mostly in the minors. During that time, Perez has shown flashes of competence, if not brilliance, but mostly inconsistency. That's inconsistent not just from game to game but often from inning to inning.
My opinion of Perez changed with his shutout of the White Sox April 18. It was an easy 12-0 victory, but it was also the first American League shutout or even complete game this season and the kind of game when his concentration might have lapsed in the past. He was economical with his pitches, and he threw ground ball after ground ball.
The AL's next shutout came five days later, when Perez pitched another three-hitter in Oakland. That stretched his winning streak to his last four starts and his scoreless streak to 26 innings. It was a fairly tense 3-0 win; the type of game when in the past one bad inning could have blown up a well pitched game.
Perez has matured, at a time when Texas needed him to shore up an injury-depleted rotation.
Now RHP Colby Lewis is back, if not in mid-season form. LHP Matt Harrison is scheduled for his first start this weekend. I saw him being brilliant in eight scoreless innings in his final rehab start for Double-A Frisco. Granted, it was against Texas League batters, but Harrison's approach was impeccable. In another couple of months, LHP Derek Holland will have recovered from his knee surgery. And until now, this paragraph hasn't included the Rangers' ace, RHP Yu Darvish.
Now, here's a preview of the kinds of things I'll be looking for in evaluating players at the five-week mark.
I look for batters with the best walk:strikeout ratios. The five major league batters with the most walks so far all have walked more often than they have struck out -- Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista 27:18 (or 1.50), Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen 21:16, Indians 3B/C Carlos Santana 20:19, Athletics SS Jed Lowrie 19:10 (1.90) and Reds 1B Joey Votto 19:18.
Three of those are no surprise. Lowrie started fast last season, but faded; he also could be a relatively low-investment shortstop, say if Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is injured again. Expect Santana's ratio to decrease. He's batting .133, so his team will expect him to be more aggressive to raise that average. He can't help you much now, but keep in mind that if he begins hitting he also will exercise pretty good strike-zone judgment.
Next in line in walks are Tulowitzki himself at 17:11, and Twins SS Brian Dozier with 17 walks but 24 strikeouts. Dozier impressed me last season as a much better player than I expected until I saw him. He has improbable statistics this year: six stolen bases and seven homers, but a mere nine RBI and a .222 average. He's a player likely to do worse if his team plays well. If Minnesota becomes a contender, pitchers would work him more closely, respecting his power, instead of giving him fastballs to hit in blowouts.
I've also looked at my pitching leading indicators. It's clear that pitchers' K:W ratios are out of whack because of small sample sizes. The leaders are Phillies LHP Cliff Lee 19.00, Yankees RHP Masahiro Tanaka 17.50, Giants RHP Tim Hudson 12.50, Mariners RHP Feliz Hernandez 10.75 and Rays LHP David Price 10.00. If any of them finish the season with ratios even half as high, they would be having an exceptional year. But the early returns indicate that the Yanks and Giants made good off-season signings.
The leaders in opponents' batting average are mixed between top pitchers and likely pretenders: Reds RHP Johnny Cueto .140, Braves RHP Aaron Harang .143, Phillies LHP Cole Hamels .151, somebody's RHP Garrett Richards .155 and Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright .165.
At the opposite end are mostly some surprising pitchers: Twins RHP Ricky Nolasco .347, Reds RHP Homer Bailey .345, Orioles LHP Wei-chin Chen .330, Twins RHP Kevin Correia .327 and Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner .314. In the next few weeks, expect to see at least two among Nolasco, Bailey, Chen and Bumgarner to go on the disabled list.
The low-end K:W pitchers are Astros RHP Scott Feldman 1.00, White Sox LHP John Danks 1.08, Phillies RHP A.J. Burnett and Twins RHP Kyle Gibson 1.18 and Orioles RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 1.24. Most of them have seen better days than they'll have this season. Gibson is off to a good start he might not be able to maintain with such a low ratio.
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