Pitchers you should pick up, others you should avoid

Every year on the Memorial Day weekend, I study which pitchers are likely to improve their results based on two metrics that show how well they have been pitching. At the same time, I come up with a list of pitchers whose performance is likely to fall off during the final two-thirds of the season.
Some of the pithcers on the way up are pretty obvious. Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber weren't winning early. But they are Cy Young Award winners. And the metrics I use -- opponents' batting average, or Hittability, and strikeout:walk ratio, or Strikeability -- showed that both were pitching well during April and May.
In the study, I included the 109 pitchers who at that point were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title (1 inning per team game). I compared their Hittability and Strikeability ratings with their standing in strikeouts and wins. Pitchers ranking high in combined Hittability and Strikeability but low in the counting stats are likely to be rewarded with better results going forward.
Others on the good list are Jimmy Nelson, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Sanchez, Chase Anderson and Michael Wacha.
If any of those pitchers are a product of a small sample size or luck, rather than talent, I'd suggest Nelson, Anderson and possibly Sanchez. The others all have a track record.
There are just two pitchers I would expect to fall this season. Usually, there are seven or eight pitchers, sometimes even more on the bad list. This year's players due for a fall are Mark Buehrle and Mike Fiers.  Buehrle was easy to see coming. In recent years, he has started fast and finished poorly. I remember telling someone it was OK to draft him, but he should be traded by midseason or the first sign that he was faltering.
In my rankings, I divide players into four groups as equal as possible, based on where they stand in each category. Buehrle began the year as one of the majors' biggest winners, even though he ranked in the bottom quarter in both Hittability and Strikeability. That made him not only an obvious candidate to fade, but also one of nine pitchers who should be replaced in the rotation as soon as someone better could be found.
There are seven pitchers in the top one-fourth in both Hittability and Strikeability. They are also good bets for success between now and October: Jason Hammel, Max Scherzer (another Cy Young Award winner), Matt Harvey, Johnny Cueto, Jake Odorizzi, Felix Hernandez (Cy!) and Zack Greinke. The biggest surprises on that list are Hammel and Odorizzi, who is one of the reasons why the Rays still are contending in the American League East.
They are players you should seek to acquire in your fantasy leagues, if you don't already have them.
Pitchers to avoid or to dump, in addition to Buehrle, are Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Wood, Tim Hudson, Kyle Kendrick, Jordan Lyles, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman and Kyle Lobstein.
Hellickson has been at the top of the Hittability and Strikeability lists in years past. I'd suggest that he and Tillman might have previously undisclosed injuries. Hudson, Guthrie and Buehrle may simply be at the end of the line.
I'll have more posts on my Hittability/Strikeability ratings, and how they can be used to predict future performance.

Hot and Not: Buehrle, Hochevar special

The players listed here were the major league statistical leaders last week. Batting averages are based on 20 at-bats, and ERA and WHIP on seven innings pitched. In most cases, we eliminate batters with an average lower than .280 and pitchers with ERAs above 4.00 from the Hot list. Keep in mind players’ career performance and current-season totals even more than current trends in deciding on whether to keep those players in your lineup.

Hot

Pos. Name, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

OF Andre Ethier, Dodgers 13-22 .591 2-5 0
2B Howie Kendrick, Angels 12-21 .571 1-5 0
OF Matt Holliday, A’s-Cards 15-27 .556 2-10 1
2B/SS/3B Craig Counsell, Brewers 11-22 .500 0-4 0
SS Stephen Drew, D-backs 14-29 .483 1-5 1
OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 12-25 .480 2-4 0
OF Shane Victorino, Phillies 14-30 .467 1-4 1
OF Rick Ankiel, Cardinals 10-22 .455 2-5 1
1B Ryan Garko, Indians 9-20 .450 2-5 0
SS Yunel Escobar, Braves 12-27 .444 3-9 0

This is Escobar’s second consecutive week among the majors’ leaders in batting average.

Home runs – Twins 1B Justin Morneau 5; Cardinals 3B/OF/2B Mark DeRosa and Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill 4; Brewers OF Ryan Braun, Pirates OF Garrett Jones, Twins OF Jason Kubel, Orioles OF Nick Markakis and Reds 1B Joey Votto 3.

RBI – Morneau 11; Holliday, Kubel and Astros OF Carlos Lee 10; Mets OF Jeff Francoeur, D-backs C Miguel Montero and OF Justin Upton and Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki 9. Montero was on the batting average Hot list a week earlier, when Upton was on the BA Not list.

Stolen bases – Rangers OF Nelson Cruz, Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Angels 3B Chone Figgins, Braves OF Nate McLouth and Cubs SS Ryan Theriot 4; Reds 2B Brandon Phillips 3.

Runs – Holliday and Drew 10; Ethier, Morneau, Victorino, Mets OF Angel Pagan and Phillies OF Jayson Werth 8.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

LHP Mark Buehrle, White Sox 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.00 6:0
RHP Justin Verlander, Tigers 9.0 0.00 1-0 1.11 4:4
RHP Scott Feldman, Rangers 8.0 0.00 1-0 0.88 2:3
RHP Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 7.1 0.00 1-0 1.09 6:4
LHP Jarrod Washburn, Mariners 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.57 3:2
LHP Aaron Laffey, Indians 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.86 7:3
LHP Jeremy Sowers, Indians 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.86 2:2
LHP John Lannan, Nationals 17.0 0.53 1-0 0.76 3:1
LHP Brett Cecil, Blue Jays 14.0 0.64 1-0 1.29 16:7
RHP Tyler Clippard, Nationals 9.0 1.00 1-0 0.78 15:3
RHP Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 9.0 1.00 0-0 0.78 10:3

Buehrle was just perfect. Feldman is one of this year’s biggest under-the-radar surprises. That Halladay guy has been in the news a lot recently.

Wins – Giants RHP Matt Cain, Yankees RHP Joba Chamberlain, Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa, D-backs RHP Juan Gutierrez, Cubs RHP Kevin Hart, Angels RHP John Lackey, Phillies RHP Rodrigo Lopez, Rangers RHP Dustin Nippert and Braves RHP Javier Vazquez 2.

Saves – Cubs RHP Kevin Gregg, Marlins RHP Leo Nunez, Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera and Rangers LHP C.J. Wilson 3-for-3. This was Rivera’s second consecutive 3-for-3 week.

WHIP – Buehrle 0.00; Braves RHP Jair Jurrjens 0.52; Cubs RHP Rich Harden 0.54; Rays RHP Matt Garza 0.56; Washburn and Astros LHP Wandy Rodriguez 0.57.

Strikeout/walk ratio (10 Ks, at least a 2.5:1 ratio) – Royals RHP Luke Hochevar 13:0; De La Rosa 13:1; Phillies LHP J.A. Happ 10:1; Athletics LHP Brett Anderson 13:2; Clippard and Yankees LHP Andy Pettitte 15:3; Halladay, Royals RHP Zack Greinke and Marlins RHP Ricky Nolasco 10:3; Vazquez 14:4. Over the last two weeks, Hochevar has struck out 22 and walked none in 13 1/3 innings. De La Rosa was one of my live longshots for the week.

* * *

Not

Pos. Player, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

1B/OF Aubrey Huff, Orioles 1-20 .050 0-0 0
2B Freddy Sanchez, Pirates 2-26 .077 0-0 0
1B/3B Russell Branyan, Mariners 2-24 .083 1-3 0
DH Jim Thome, White Sox 2-22 .091 1-2 0
2B Alexi Casilla, Twins 2-21 .095 0-00 2
SS/2B Ronny Cedeno, Mariners 2-21 .095 0-1 0
1B Carlos Pena, Rays 3-24 .125 1-2 0
OF/SS Willie Bloomquist, Royals 3-22 .136 0-0 0
2B/SS Clint Barmes, Rockies 3-22 .136 0-0 2
OF Grady Sizemore, Indians 3-22 .136 1-2 0

The week’s hitless wonder was Rangers C Taylor Teagarden, 0-for-11.

Walk/strikeout ratio (six or more strikeouts) – Giants 3B Jose Uribe 0:11; Cardinals OF Ryan Ludwick 1:10; Pena 2:10; Phillies 1B Ryan Howard 4:12; Thome 4:10.

Caught stealing – Braves SS Yunel Escobar, Dodgers C Russell Martin and Athletics OF Ryan Sweeney 0-for-2.

The following pitchers made two starts last week, doubly damaging their real and fantasy teams.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP Ryan Sadowski, Giants 6.1 15.63 0-2 3.00 4:6
RHP Nick Blackburn, Twins 8.2 13.50 0-1 2.31 0:1
LHP Gio Gonzalez, Athletics 9.1 11.57 1-0 1.93 7:6
RHP Ervin Santana, Angels 9.2 10.24 1-1 1.76 11:3
RHP John Smoltz, Red Sox 10.2 10.13 0-2 1.78 11:1
RHP Micah Owings, Reds 8.0 10.13 0-2 2.25 4:6
LHP David Price, Rays 9.0 10.00 0-1 2.11 7:2
RHP Rick Porcello, Tigers 10.1 8.71 1-1 1.65 5:3
LHP Doug Davis, D-backs 8.1 8.64 1-1 2.16 9:7
RHP Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals 10.0 8.10 0-2 2.00 7:2

Losses – Owings, Sadowski, Smoltz, Wellemeyer, Padres RHP Greg Burke, Blue Jays LHP Scott Downs 2 and Pirates RHP Virgil Vasquez 2.

Blown saves – Downs 0-for-2; White Sox RHP Bobby Jenks 1-for-3.