Friday, December 12, 2014

Pitching moves don't guarantee anything to Sox

Looking at the big splash -- or at least the overblown coverage -- about Boston's new pitching acquisitions

The article breathlessly adds that they're also looking at RHPs James Shields and Max Scherzer and just about every other available pitcher. The implication is that they might have about a 9-man All-Star rotation. Probably won't lose a game, except occasionally to the Yankees. 

I'm thinking that to acquire a star pitcher in a trade, the Sox would have to trade at least one from the group of RHPs Justin Masterson and Rick Porcello and LHP Wade Miley, or that if they sign a free agent pitcher or two, to fill other holes they'd have to trade one of the pitchers they've acquired.

Here's some reality: After the All-Star break, those three pitchers were a combined 9-17. I haven't done the math, but I'm pretty sure their combined ERA was well above the league average. Porcello was 3-8, 3.48. Miley 3-6, 4.60. Masterson was 3-3, but with an awesome 7.04 ERA. 

If the plan is to improve the pitching incrementally, and they're able to pull it off, that should work if they have Shields and Scherzer in the rotation instead of Masterson and Miley, plus another above-average infielder or center fielder who could hit. But if 2/5 of the rotation is Masterson and Miley, and they still have holes in their lineup, the Sox wouldn't be a major threat.

I think Porcello should be OK, but his ERA could take a hit pitching in Boston. I saw him last season before he slumped. He was masterful in shutting out the Rangers. I asked him if he was a better pitcher than he'd been in the past. He looked at me, hesitated and said, "That's for you guys to say." I was pretty sure he was at that time, not so sure now and not too sure what happened to him down the stretch.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Proposal: the easy way out for college football committee

In a little over an hour, the college football championship teams will be decided.
Seems to be there's one easy solution for the committee to make.
In that solution, these would be the seeds.
1. Oregon -- avenged its only loss in a big way against Arizona in the Pac-is it now 12? championship game.
2. Alabama -- No. 1 in the polls for a good part of the season, and won the Southeastern Conference championship game.
3. Florida State -- The only undefeated team and the defending national champion under last year's BCS system. The Seminoles won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship in their typical fashion, by an eyelash. But they did win every game on their schedule, and I believe in the boxing maxim, "To be the champ, you've got to knock out the champ." The committee should give FSU a chance to lose the title, but they also could spare a couple of more eyelashes to win it
4. Ohio State -- won the Big Ten championship game in resounding fashion with the Buckeyes' third quarterback this year.
The matchups would be Ohio State vs. Oregon in the Rose Bowl and Florida State vs. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
OK. I hear you howling: What about TCU and Baylor? What about them? What conference championship did they win? Oh, they were Big 12 co-champions? And Baylor beat TCU head to head, so the Bears should have been placed with the top four? That argument doesn't hold water under the championship committee's priority of criteria, which lists strength of schedule higher than head-to-head competition.
By taking deserving Ohio State and Florida State teams, the committee avoids the sticky wicket that would be picking one of the Big 12 teams over the other.
By not rewarding Baylor for playing a soft non-conference schedule, he committee also could send a message to teams to beef up the opponents on their resumes.
Also, by not taking either Big 12 team, the committee would set up a third game with great interest on New Year's Day. A Baylor-TCU rematch in the Cotton Bowl would have all of Texas and most of the rest of the U.S. buzzing.
* * *
I don't like this idea, but I'm resigned to having an eight-team playoff in the near future. That way a champion in one of the five biggest conferences would not be excluded from the playoff. However, there still would be a lot of whining from the No. 9 and 10 teams in that system.
Before that eight-team playoff comes into being, the committee would require the Big 12 actually to have 12 teams. The easiest solution would be to annex Houston and Rice, with woeful SMU as a possible fallback. With 12 teams, the Big 12 would be able to have its own championship game.
The conference made a huge blunder in its marketing as being the conference with "one true champion." Turns out, the Big 12 doesn't have any champion. That is, until one team wins the Cotton Bowl showdown.
Another thing I'd like to know is why college teams have to play 12 regular-season games. I know, I know, money. But when one of the 12 is say Alabama vs. Florida International or Baylor vs. Sam Houston State, that money really benefits only the lower-rung team that's the visitor against a team that could have national championship aspirations.
I'd favor a 10-game regular-season schedule. The 11th game for some teams still could be a conference championship.
Then there could be a 16-team playoff over four weeks, ending at about the same time as in the current format. A bunch of other teams still could play in one of the crappy bowls featuring teams whose only requirement would be having a pulse. The only downside would be from the teams ranked 17th and 18th.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

What I've told some Cubs fans about Joe Maddon

 As I was driving home from a Mavericks game, I realized that Joe Maddon could be the one person able to erase the misery of the last 106 years or so.
He could make the Cubs winners because that's what he did with the Rays. 
He didn't do it all by himself. He came along with a management that had a clue without thinking it knew everything. It was an enlightened management that realized you didn't have to give everyone the highest salary of anybody at his position if you treated the players well. 
With Maddon running the team, the Rays were able to find players who were better than even they knew. 
The last step was for Maddon to convince the players that they could win. It took a few years. 
The situation he'll have in Chicago isn't a whole lot different from what he had in the AL East. But the Cardinals and Pirates are hardly as entrenched as the Yankees and Red Sox, nor do they receive the benefits that the New York and Boston teams did from baseball's hierarchy and the media. 
So it might take Maddon two years to do what he did in three for the Rays. 
If he uses his tenure there as the template, he'll spend the first year convincing players it's possible for them to win as a group. He'll be firm but positive with the players. He'll get them working together without cliques in the locker room. 
In the second year, he'll take aim at the Cardinals. There will be a game when the Cardinals throw at a Cub, and the Chicago pitcher will come back to take out Yadier Molina or some other key player. Or maybe a minor character. With the Rays, he did it with utility infielder Elliot Johnson taking out Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli. In spring training. The uproar at the time from New York was deafening. Who were they to do that to the Yankees? 
But at a time when another AL East manager told me his team was afraid of the Yankees -- and I observed that the Rangers seemed the same way -- the Rays had no fear of the Yanks. 
I heard Maddon in his farewell press conference saying how great a contribution Elliot Johnson made to the Rays' success. 
By the third year, here's how the Rays as a team showed me they were together from the top of the organization to the bottom. When they'd come to Texas in '09 or '10, it seemed that the music in the clubhouse was almost always a song called "Low" by Flo Rida. Kind of a hip hop song. The younger players -- most of them were young -- and the black players liked the music. But there in the clubhouse, singing along with the lyrics, would be 38-39-40-year-old Troy Percival. I never heard Maddon singing it, but I'm sure he approved.

Joe Maddon is my favorite major league manager to deal with. That's the case with most of the people who come in contact with him. He is one of the most genuinely interesting and interested people I've been around. He can carry on a conversation on just about any topic without coming across as a know-it-all. He knows what he doesn't know, and seems willing to listen to others who might have the answers. 
Managers have different reactions to their pre-game and post-game sessions with the media. Some treat it like a visit to the dentist, let's get it over with (Ryne Sandberg). Most tolerate it. Some can be prickly (Ned Yost). Maddon seems to embrace the time. He never seems rushed, he always allows enough time so he doesn't have to tell the writers and broadcasters it's time to go. It begins and ends on its own time, and it's a give and take.
Especially with Ozzie Guillen and Jim Leyland out of managing, Maddon has the most interesting media sessions.
I'm pretty sure he's the same with his players. Always having time and making time for them, and always hearing them out and learning from them.

A story. I was in one of Mike Scioscia's pre-game news gatherings in the dugout before a game a couple of years ago. I'd noticed in the media notes that a couple of players were nearly ready to come off the disabled list. He didn't say anything about them, so I asked about their status. He said something about one player, then he said that the other one, Sean Burnett, would be shut down and would undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. By that time, the clubhouse was closed to the media, but the Angels beat writers arranged to get an interview with Burnett outside the clubhouse. While we were waiting to talk to him, the Angels writers thanked me for asking. I said something about how I just figured it didn't hurt to ask. I don't think Scioscia neglected to tell us on purpose. But I told the writers that because I worked with a lot of visiting managers, there were managers who wouldn't tell you anything, some who would tell you just what they were supposed to say and others who would volunteer information. The writers didn't seem to believe it and asked, "Who volunteers information?" I said, "Maddon." Then they all nodded their heads and understood.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

We need weekend postseason baseball

Not exactly a news flash: TV ratings for World Series games are down.

My hope is that baseball's new hierarchy under Rob Manfred will not make the mistake of the outgoing commissioner, who figured that what baseball needed to boost interest in the game was more Yankees and Red Sox.

That feeling has led to adding an extra wild card (more chances that both the Yanks and Sox would get into the playoffs) and limiting the bonus money for off-shore player signings (because the teams making hay in Latin America and Asia were not the Yanks and Sox, who despite their millions lagged behind in international scouting).

Sure, Yankees-Red Sox games draw viewers in New England and the Tri-State area. But even -- maybe especially -- baseball fans in the other 90 per cent or so of the population are tired of seeing Yankees-Red Sox on Saturday afternoons, Sunday nights, Monday nights, Wednesday nights, on every network showing baseball.

There are plenty of other interesting teams and players. Hunter Pence and Lorenzo Cain shouldn't have to arrive in the World Series to be recognized more than Jackie Bradley Jr. and Francisco Cervelli.

Aided by a weekly thirst for gambling action, football has capitalized on making itself a national attraction without having to lean on one or two teams (the way baseball does) and a small group of players (see basketball and golf). NFL teams in places like Dallas, New Orleans and even Green Bay can gain a national following and recognition. And if the Chargers can cover against the Broncos, that can make bettors from coast to coast happy on any given Sunday (or Monday or Thursday).

Baseball's ratings problem isn't entirely that the games are on too long and too late, though those are factors. I watched just part of Game 4 Saturday -- the part that went something like this: pitching change, several minutes of commercials, another pitching change, several more minutes of commercials, another pitching change and I think more commercials. But even I had lost interest in the non-game by then.

It hasn't helped that all but one of the first six games has turned into a blowout.

The real problem has not been inaction during the games, but 1. inaction of any kind after the first rounds were sweeps or near-sweeps and 2. baseball's fear of going up against football.

Baseball has all but abdicated the weekend to pro football, college football and even high school football in some areas of the country.

Wouldn't it make sense to set up the World Series so there's at least the possibility so it could go over two weekends -- when more people could watch, or at least choose to watch either baseball or football? Or both, with a remote. Games could even be played -- God forbid! -- during the day so young, budding fans could watch. (Of course, today parents could record the night games so their children could watch while they're awake. I know, I know, advertisers. But for the future of baseball, what's more important: appeasing today's advertisers, or building a fan base that could attract even more advertisers in the future? I see the current approach as a result of the used-car-sale mentality of the recent regime.)

It didn't work so well this year to set up the schedule so there would be two weekends of League Championship Series. With each series ending early, there was no second weekend. And no baseball for so long that a pitcher who won the last game of a Championship Series could also start World Series Game 1.

The Chicago Tribune article linked above pointed out how bad the ratings were for Game 1.

Why wouldn't those have been bad? By the time baseball got around to playing again, on a Wednesday night, casual fans probably had forgotten there was even a baseball postseason still going.

Because of the lengthy delay between the two series, there was no baseball on Friday night (traditionally high school football night), Saturday (college football), Sunday (pro football), Monday (more pros).

Wouldn't it make more sense, if you're going to have a possible five-day layoff, to have that lag occur during the week rather than on a weekend abdicated to baseball's perceived enemy: football?

Schedule the Championship Series Games 6 and 7 for midweek, say Wednesday-Thursday. That way, if those series ended early, those games would be on a weekend. The more exciting Games 6 and 7, when at least one World Series competitor could be crowded, would generate more interest, especially as virtually the only games in town.

Those climactic games could create a couple of days of buzz for the World Series beginning Saturday. Because college and pro football go on all day on the weekend, it still would be possible to play one game each weekend during the day.

World Series Games 3, 4 and 5 -- two of which could be the final game -- on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday -- would keep baseball alive while football was dormant. And those baseball games could set the stage for weekend Games 6 and 7 on the weekend.

To Rob Manfred and baseball: Stop dodging football. Take it on during the time when more people can watch television.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Thoughts after Series Game 1.05

I didn't get to watch the first game of the World Series because I was covering the Stars and Canucks. Here's the edited version of what I wrote.
From time to time, I did peek at the Gameday. First, I saw that the Giants had scored three runs in the first inning and Hunter Pence had scored a run and driven in two. That made me think he had hit a home run (I couldn't scroll down as far as HR on the new-fangled version of Gameday). And that made   me think that if I had survived the Championship Series in either Inner League, I would have received credit at least for that run and the one he scored later.
Everyone on the panel for Fox's pregame show Wednesday picked the Royals to win Game 2.
That wouldn't square with the idea that this year's Royals are the 2007 Rockies reincarnated.
I would have thought at least one person would have favored the Giants, but I guess most if not all of them had been caught up in Rockies -- I mean Royals -- fever and picked KC to win the Series.
Here are a few reasons I think the Giants can win tonight (the leadoff batter currently has a 2-2 count in the top of the first).
Rookie RHP Yordano Ventura is pitching for the Royals.
Pence
Pablo Sandoval and his World Series history (remember his three-homer game)
Well, it's now 1-0, courtesy of Gregor Blanco, so the Giants may be making this too easy.
Buster Posey
2010 and 2012
I'm not really sold on San Francisco RHP Jake Peavy, but I believe he should receive enough help, or Bruce Bochy will know not to leave him in too long, for the Giants to be able to win in any case.
Hey! I remembered which other World Series this one brings to mind. Of course! The 1980 Dickie Noles and Willie May Aikens Series. I'll tell you why in a later post. I want to send this one before you begin to think I wrote it after the fact. All I know is it's 1-0 going to the bottom of the first.

Root canals get a bad name

You've probably heard someone say sarcastically, "That was as much fun as a root canal," or about their day, more seriously, "It wasn't as bad as a root canal."
That's the kind of day I had today. I had a root canal.
I was eating some popcorn at Tuesday night's Dallas Stars game when I crunched down on something hard and felt a quick, jarring pain in the upper right of my mouth.
"I might have broken a tooth on a kernel," I thought.
Then I spat out two small, hard things on to a napkin. One was a hard kernel. The other, about as big around but a bit longer, was part of a bicuspid.
So today when I went to the dentist, I found that I would need a temporary crown. And a root canal.
I'd had both before, sometimes when dentistry was less high-tech than it is now.
For example, McKinney Dentist has flat-screen TVs above every chair. When the dentist wasn't showing me the holes, decay and nerve in the affected today, the flat screen showed what looked like a tropical island, with rocky cliffs on either side of a sandy beach. That, I figured, was where the dentist will be going with the money I'll be paying for today.
That's not the first time I've thought that. A couple of decades ago, when my dentist gave me a partial bridge to replace one that had been there since I had parts of three teeth knocked out while playing hockey, he actually was going on a vacation to Jamaica or some other Caribbean island soon after.
Today's root canal really wasn't bad.
My greatest realization was that my mouth is like a TARDIS, bigger on the inside than it is on the outside. Here's why I know that. How else could the dentist fit in my mouth an instrument in each hand, along with something to prop my mouth open, some other rubber thingies to surround the tooth in question, as well as having his assistant rooting around in there with the hose, the leaf blower or the vacuum cleaner, whichever was needed at the time?
Ask yourself this, too. If you have a missing tooth, or a hole in a tooth, and you run your tongue over it,  doesn't that feel about the size of a pothole that could swallow a Buick Enclave?
When the dental team started loading things into my pinhole, the dentist said to let him know if there was any problem. How could I possibly do that? I wondered from underneath the gas mask and hoses stretched across my cheeks.
My greatest concern was that I would forget some of these pithy observations that came to me while I was high on nitrous oxide.
I probably have, but that concern is why I'm writing all of this and not yet about baseball and my fantasy teams.
Back to the dentist and the tropical island. I had been feeling pretty good because two checks came in the mail today. That was before a woman from the business office brought me my bill. It was for nearly 10 times the total of the two checks. And I'd worked about three half-days for those; the dentist worked on me for barely two hours today.
Anyway, my time with the dentist, the anesthetic and the nitrous oxide was kind of a seehearsmelltouchtaste one, two, three, four, five senses working OverrTIME.
Well, the see and touch parts not so much. I could see past the stuff stuffed into my mouth, and I still can't feel anything on the right side of my face.
The hear part wasn't so good, because I could hear the drill grinding my tooth to dust even if I couldn't feel that. I could hear the dentist asking the assistant for various drill bits. The 19 and 20 didn't sound too bad. I wasn't sure about the 30, but I survived it.
The taste was worse. Even if it had tasted good, I still would have thought about how it was equal parts water from the hose, those specks of tooth dust and drippings of Novocaine or whatever anesthetic had been injected.
But the worst was the smell. That sense was working overtime on a Sunday holiday. The odor of burnt tooth is not pleasant. And it added to the unpleasant taste.
My next appointment, to put a permanent crown in place and to collect whatever money I haven't yet paid, will be in three weeks with a different dentist. At that time, I'll be envisioning the dentist who worked on me basking on that tropical island. See? Root canals aren't so bad for some people.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Royals remind me of some similar teams

I was thinking that this October's Royals brought to mind two other World Series teams from days gone by.
One was the 1969 Mets. Another was the 2007 Rockies.
The Mets, because of the better-than-average defensive plays, especially outfield plays, Kansas City has been able to make. In truth, once Lorenzo Cain and Co. started making some plays, the network analysts went a little overboard in overselling some of the web-gem candidates. I mean, sure, plays such as Alex Gordon's catch on the warning track and run into the fence were good plays. But you can see a play like that virtually every day in the major leagues.
Where the Royals fall short of the Amazin' Mets is in the ridiculous plays that were made by players not  known for defensive skills. Amos Otis' plays in center field weren't a great surprise, but Google Ron Swoboda and see what it says about him. And if you can find video of his airborne diving catch (which I found for you; it's about 3:45 in, though I have seen more spectacular video of the play), just know that was almost totally out of character with his career.
Don't get me wrong. What KC's defense has done has been remarkable. And I've done research showing that the area of the game that correlates most closely to winning postseason series is defense. The team with the better statistical defensive record in the World Series -- measured by bases saved and extra bases allowed -- wins a higher percentage of the time than the better-pitching or -hitting teams.
Many of you who aren't old enough to remember the '69 Series can, however, remember the '07 Rockies. They got on an undefeated roll through the final games of the regular season to earn a playoff berth, then kept winning for all but one game before reaching the World Series. Once Colorado arrived in that championship event, the Red Sox swept the Rockies.
So on the one hand, we have a good defensive team. Probably a better defensive team than the Giants, from the limited amount I have seen them on TV.
On the other hand is a Cinderella carriage waiting to turn into a pumpkin before Halloween.
Today, I thought there was a third World Series team brought to mind by the '14 Royals. But I didn't write it down, it's late and I'm not fully thinking straight. Perhaps I'll remember it, and I can write about it before the Series begins Tuesday night.
* * *
Made it into the playoffs in two of my three Inner League Baseball fantasy leagues. Lost in the Championship Series in both leagues. Now, as the leagues' commissioners, I've helped the remaining teams re-draft and reset their rosters for the World Series. I'll try to remember to keep you posted on what's happening there.
* * *
Won one, lost one in my fantasy football leagues this week. Not a good week. I don't feel like talking much about either of them right now.
* * *
My ESPN fantasy hockey team, Texas Shooting Stars, has risen from the depths of a 20-team league to the middle of the pack. Some time when I have time, I'll let you know some things I realized about how a 20-team draft is vastly different from a 10- or 12-team draft. One thing that has developed since the season began is that I no longer have any Dallas Stars on my team. I dumped Ales Hemsky, who started slowly and now has been taken off the superpower power play where he started the season. Probably more of that in future posts.
* * *
I've kind of debated whether to get into an ESPN fantasy basketball league, but I think I owe it to myself to try to win another title. I'll keep you posted, and probably will be drafting within the next week. Saw the Mavericks and Grizzlies play tonight, by the way. Good game for Dallas C Tyson Chandler, who now appears able to shoot with greater range.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Homers help, too

Homers help, too

I realized after I made my last post that it might have left the impression that home runs aren't important.

That wasn't my point. Perhaps I didn't make well enough that point: Teams need more than home runs to make their offense strong enough to win in the playoffs.

Conversely, it's very difficult to win in the postseason -- or even get there -- without some kind of home run threat.

There's nothing wrong with getting an instant run with a homer. But it's not always easy to hit the ball out of the park against the better pitching staffs you'll see in the playoffs.

And the Giants and Nationals might still be playing if San Francisco 1B Brandon Belt hadn't led off the  top of the 18th with the home run that brought a 2-1 victory. If you look back at a lot of extra-long games in baseball history, they're won by long balls. And not always by the big boppers, but often by someone like Jack Reed or Rick Camp. Google them and if there's anything on the web about them it's probably that home run.

The Dodgers also won last night on CF Matt Kemp's tie-breaking homer.

If you can hit homers AND build big innings by stringing hits, walks and whatever else you can get -- see Baltimore Orioles, 2014 -- you're going to have a better chance to win. You can't just will a home run.

* * *

The Royals-Angels series is reminding me of the best Championship Series no one remembers. That's the 1980 NLCS, which the Phillies won over Houston three games to two. (That was 5 years before that playoff round was stretched to best-of-seven.)

The first two KC-LAA games, plus the Royals' wild card game, have gone to extra innings. The last four games between Philadelphia and the Astros went into overtime. The last three were won by one run. It was nail-biting fun that wasn't duplicated until Houston and the Mets went 16 innings to decide the '86 NLCS -- and there was tragic drama between the Red Sox and Angels in the other league.

Another forgotten feature was a line drive back to the mound that caused great confusion among the players and the umpires. Was it a triple play or only one out? There was no official replay in those days, but the play was resolved when the umpires went to the commissioner's box, where Bowie Kuhn made a ruling: Double play. Huh?

I did take the time to consult Google about that 1980 NLCS and found something else that surprised me. Through five games and 50 innings, there was only one home run, by Phillies LF Greg Luzinski in their 3-1 first-game victory.

Friday, October 3, 2014

Teams to do live by homers alone

Let's see.

Thursday got off to a bad start. My friend Bruno Sniders' stepson called to tell me that Bruno had died Wednesday night.

That set back my schedule for the day. The biggest casualty was that I didn't have or take the time to switch quarterbacks from Kirk Cousins to Aaron Rodgers. When I heard the early scoring from the Packers-Vikings game, I thought that omission would be costly. It could be, but Rodgers finished with just 18 points and change.

As Thursday's games played out, they reminded me of something that I observed about the Pirates' 8-0 loss to the Giants the night before.

My biggest concern coming down the stretch was that the Bucs' offense frequently depended solely on home runs, and not on building runs and sustaining big innings. The biggest example was during a five-game stretch when Pittsburgh scored just nine runs but still went 4-1 because the pitchers held the opponents to five. But even those meager nine runs, if I'm not mistaken, all scored on home runs.

My observations on the National League wild card game I expressed in a Facebook post: The Pirates were like McCroskey in "Airplane!". I guess they picked the wrong day to start walking people. I guess they picked the wrong day to stop hitting popups. I guess they picked the wrong day to have no range in the infield. Bottom line: The Pirates did almost everything poorly. It didn't help that Giants LHP Madison Bumgarner was in his best postseason form, which is very good.

Back to Thursday's American League Division Series games and home runs. The Tigers scored three runs, all on solo homers, and lost. The Angels scored two runs, both on solo homers, and lost. The dagger in Los Angeles' loss was that the Royals won that game on Mike Moustakas' 10th-inning ... solo homer.

Baltimore put a game-clinching eight-run eighth inning together with a series of base hits and misplays.

And don't you know today the Orioles overcome a 6-3 deficit with a four-run eighth built on hits and walks. No home runs. Four of the Tigers' runs scored on homers, but even for the purposes of this post, you can't really complain when three consecutive hits started their five-run fourth inning, which closed with J.D. Martinez's three-run homer and Nick Castellanos' solo shot.

But aside from that one inning, the Tigers couldn't put together any sustained offense. If they go home this weekend and do the same, they won't make it to a Game 5.

A few words about J.D. Martinez. Two years ago, he was the best player I saw in the Double-A Texas League and in the Corpus Christi Hooks' lineup. That's saying something, because one of his teammates was 2B Jose Altuve, who was almost as good in the Texas League as he was as this year's AL leader in batting average, hits and stolen bases.

This season didn't start out well for Martinez. The Astros released him. The Tigers signed him. After Martinez tore up the Triple-A International League, Detroit called him up and he almost immediately began to hit.

He talked about how he reconstructed his swing during the off-season. After he joined the Tigers, I asked him whether he went back more to the hitting style he used at Corpus Christi, and he said it was similar. He indicated that the Astros and hitting coach Dave Mallee wanted Martinez to hit more to the opposite field. He had trouble doing that, partly because he couldn't change his swing adequately and partly because he was resistant.

Another time-consuming task Thursday was running playoff fantasty drafts for the three Inner League Baseball leagues.

In those leagues, which began a year before Rotisserie Leagues, our starting lineup is one player in each of nine statistical categories. I'm in the playoffs in two of the leagues. In one of them, J.D. Martinez is in my lineup for RBI. In the other, he's my HR guy. It appears that I did something right.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The hare loses again

In early August of 2012, the Texas Rangers were leading the American League West by 10 games or so. At that time I told my friend Billy, an Athletics fan, "The A's are going to catch the Rangers. It will be like the tortoise and the hare."

The Oakland tortoises did exactly that, taking the West title of the final day.

Fast forward to just a little more than 2 years later. The A's were running away in the AL West race.

Something another friend -- Frank, one of the toughest fastasy competitors in Inner League Baseball -- said today applies to what happened next in July-August-September for Oakland. Frank was talking about his own fantasy teams and how he "got greedy" at our trade deadline and went for the kill instead of sticking with a winning lineup.

That's what happened with A's general manager Billy Beane in July. Instead of sticking with a winning formula that got Oakland into the playoffs in 2012 and '13 (but again not to the World Series), Beane got greedy and went for the kill.

He understood that his starting rotation was fragile. So Beane traded for three established starters -- Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel and Jon Lester.

Beane got greedy, and in so doing, hurt the chemistry of a team built with smoke, mirrors and chicken wire.

NEWS FLASH! Just sent this text to my daughter Diana at PNC Park: "When I saw the starting lineup I was thinking, 'Crawford could be a dangerous No. 7 batter.'" The Pirates will have to figure a way to get into the Giants' bullpen.

Back to Beane and the A's. In hindsight, it wasn't good to bring in a bunch of high-paid mercenaries to be the saviors for a team that was doing perfectly well with a bunch of guys whose salaries -- relatively speaking -- were the equivalent of guys being paid with lunch money and coins out of the couch cushions.

I spent some time with the A's in the visitors' clubhouse in Arlington this weekend -- waiting up with them until after midnight Saturday night in hopes that the Mariners would lose, and wading through puddles of champagne and beer Sunday afternoon when Oakland celebrated a win to take the AL's No. 2 wild card.

The old spirit of that clubhouse seemed to be there.

But then came Monday night, and the A's lost that wild card game in Kansas City. Jon Lester started for Oakland, but the bullpen blew a four-run lead. The winning hit came off Jason Hammel.

The game was the A's season in microcosm. And this time, the Athletics were the hares.

Monday, September 29, 2014

The Fault in Our Wild Cards

The way this year's National League wild card pairing came about showed a glaring flaw in the system.

First, a disclaimer. I have followed the Pirates since I was 6 years old. But my feelings about what transpired would be the same if Pittsburgh received the benefit of the system.

Going into the final day of the regular season, the Bucs trailed St. Louis by one game in the NL Central. Pittsburgh already had earned the first wild card, and the Giants had clinched the second.

Thus, the Pirates still had a mathematical chance to catch the Cardinals for the division title. It would take a lot -- Pittsburgh win at Cincinnati, St. Louis loss at last-place Arizona and another Pirates victory in a tie-breaker game.

Still, it was worth it for manager Clint Hurdle to go for it Sunday. With Gerrit Cole pitching then, instead of being saved for the wild card game, the Bucs would have a chance to get into the tiebreaker. At worst, they'd still be playing the wild card contest with a couple of starters unavailable. Best case, the Pirates would skip past the one-game playoff and have a couple of days for those starters to recover before going into the Division Series against the Dodgers.

Meanwhile -- well, not even meanwhile, but hours later -- the Giants would have nothing to play for. Whatever happened Sunday, they'd be heading to play in Pittsburgh Wednesday.

San Francisco's pitchers would be well rested. Even better rested than might be expected, because they saved battle-tested 18-game-winner Madison Bumgarner and are having him start against the Pirates.

Instead of Bumgarner, Sunday's starter was a wet-behind-the-ears rookie, I think Charlton Heston. The Pirates already had lost by that time. Manager Bruce Bochy said if the Pirates had won, Tim Lincecum would have started the regular-season finale. You can believe the skipper if you like.

If I had been in the position Bochy was in, I might have started Sophia Loren. He was rightly taking advantage of the situation was in.

My point was that he shouldn't have been put in that situation.

It makes little sense to have a team lose, on the field, the right to host the wild card game, but then have that advantage blunted if not eliminated because the opponent earning the home field has a chance at something bigger.

It's a problem, but I have a couple of solutions.

1. Mandate that every game on the last day of the season start at the same time -- let's say 4 p.m. Eastern, 1 p.m. Pacific. That way, a team in the race wouldn't receive the advantage of knowing how other games ended before they even throw a pitch. This move would eliminate the minor advantage created by the earth's rotation.

Another advantage would be that in years with tight races, MLB could take that take a lot of that TV time slot away from the NFL, and the baseball rights could be marketed to any number of networks.

2. More important: If you're going to have two wild cards in each league, Don't have them play only one game!

They could play a best-of-three series during roughly the same amount of time the division champions have off before they begin the Division Series. The regular season ended Sunday. One league isn't starting its Division Series until Thursday. That's 1-2-3 days off, during which the league could play a 1-2-3-game wild card series.

That would soften the blow of one team's having to use an ace in the regular-season game while the team proven to be slightly inferior could line up its rotation however it wants. It would no longer be one sudden-death game.

If tiebreaker games are needed, they could still be played on the Monday after the season ends. That league could push its wild card series and one Division Series back a day.

But, you say, the wild cards might have to fly coast-to-coast overnight for the third game (or second, depending on whether the series format was 1-2 or 2-1). So what? That's tough. The division champs earned their time off, and it should be more difficult for the wild cards to win.

3. The third choice would be to go back to one wild card, but we'll never see that happen.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

If not Tanaka, who?

The Yankees' battered rotation took the biggest hit of all Wednesday when RHP Masahiro Tanaka went on the 15-day disabled list because of a sore elbow.
Tanaka leads the majors with 12 wins. He has a 2.51 ERA. He didn't give up more than three earnies in any of his first 16 starts, but surrendered four July 3 and five more Tuesday night. That performance led to a trip back to New York for an MRI exam.
The first question is how long he might be out? With a 4-day All-Star break coming up, he would likely miss just two starts before the minimum 15 days when he could return.
But if the injury is more serious than a 15-day ailment, the Yankees could be in an awful place with their rotation.
Without the ace, could New York count on RHP Brandon McCarthy, who brought a 3-10 record with him when he was traded from Arizona, to head the rotation? Or Hiroki Kuroda, whose second half last season was a train wreck? David Phelps? Rookie Chase Whitley?
Early candidates for the rotation -- LHP C.C. Sabathia and RHPs Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda -- are all on the 60-day DL.
The trouble isn't just at the top of the rotation, but all the way down to who would fill the No. 5 slot.
Could they move someone from the bullpen, such as LHP David Huff? Or RHP Bruce Billings, just brought up from Triple-A Scranton, where he was in the rotation? Other possibilities from Scranton could be Shane Greene or 35-year-old former outfielder Brian Gordon.
Among them, Billings, Greene and Gordon have a .500 record (13-13). In Triple-A.
The Yankees have been barely a .500 team even with Tanaka. Without him, .500 would look pretty good.


Open tryout camp in Arlington

During the past two days, OF Jake Smolinski and RHPs Phil Irwin and Roman Mendez became the 999th, 1,000th and 1,001st players to perform for the Washington Senators II/Texas Rangers.
The count won't stop there.
Even with the influx of new talent?, Rangers pitchers gave up 20 runs and 29 hits in two losses against the Astros. Another defeat Wednesday night could drop Texas to the worst winning percentage in the major leagues.
The Rangers were at .500 until their current 3-17 superslump. Injuries finally caught up to them.
They have 15 players on the disabled list, five of whom -- starters Matt Harrison and Martin Perez, reliever Pedro Figueroa, 1B Prince Fielder and 1B/DH Mitch Moreland -- will not play again this season.
Those absences have led to 15 players who otherwise wouldn't be in the majors making up 60% of the active roster. That necessarily has meant a decline in the talent level. For example, the bottom three hitters in Tuesday's lineup were 1B Carlos Pena, who was out of baseball early this season, and Smolinski and 2B Rougned Odor, who both began the season at Double-A Frisco.
With some questionable talent already on the roster and pretty obviously nowhere to go over the final 70 or so games of the season, there's plenty of flexibility to move players on and off the 40-man roster.
For example, Smolinski was a minor league free agent who already had spent six seasons in the Nationals and Marlins organization. Mendez is on the 40-man roster, and would be out of options next season.
And it's actually a 45-man roster, because there are also five players on the 60-day DL that don't count against the limit.
So what we'll see from the Rangers from now until September will be essentially an open tryout camp. Texas can answer questions about potential players to keep on the 40-man off-season roster. Can this guy make it in the majors? I don't know, let's put him on the 40-man and bring him up from Round Rock or Frisco.
And once this guy shows what he might be lacking, the organization can do the same thing with that guy -- until they eventually run out of guys. If the Rangers find even one keeper that way, it would be worth the mounting losses in a lost season.
* * *
The Red Sox aren't in quite such a precarious position in the standings, but they too are throwing open to rookies the doors of their lineup.
In addition to giving 3B Xander Bogaerts and OF Jackie Bradley futile major league at-bats when they still should be refining their batting skills in the minors, the Red Sox have designated 37-year-old C A.J. Pierzynski for assignment and elevated rookie C Christian Vazquez to the big leagues.
Expect more rookies, especially pitchers, during what's left of a lost season in Boston.
I received Bill Gilbert's mid-season report on major league candidates for triple milestones -- 30 homers, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average for batters, and 20 wins, a sub-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts for pitchers.
He noted that the toughest milestone to reach now is 20 wins. That gave me an opportunity to rant, through an Email, to him with my thoughts. With minor modifications, that rant follows:

The lack of pitching wins seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

I'm a firm believer in sabremetrics, but I believe the sabermetricians, or perhaps the application of their teaching, have steered us wrong in the thinking that pitchers' wins aren't important. 

Evidence for "wins aren't important": 
1. Relief pitchers who enter with a lead, pitch an inning and give up a run to tie the game and receive a win when their team regains the lead.
2. Starters who pitch well for their six or seven innings, leave with the lead and watch the bullpen blow the lead. 

The whole emphasis on pitch counts and inning counts has led to the belief that pitchers' workloads should be protected at all costs. Pitchers -- and their agents -- have bought in, figuring that a couple of extra years at the end of their career could lead to a few million more dollars. 

Evidence against "wins aren't important":
1. If limiting pitch counts can prevent injuries and lengthen careers, why do there seem to be more injuries now? (There probably are more injuries/pitcher, but I don't have empirical evidence.)
2. If limiting workloads for pitchers is beneficial, why don't teams do more to limit plate appearances and innings in the field for position players? Sure, you see hitting stars come out in the last couple of innings of blowouts or for defensive replacements in close games. But when was the last time you heard "Ausmus is taking Cabrera out because he already has 4 plate appearances" in a tie game? Or "Jeter has eight chances already, so Girardi is putting in Dean Anna" in the seventh inning of a tie game? (That was before the Pirates claimed Anna on waivers.)

There are reasons why pitchers like Greg Maddux, Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan won a lot of games. 
1. They were good pitchers.
2. They pitched a lot of games, and innings.
3. They often finished what they started, so there was no worry about having a bad bullpen take away wins. You noted that Felix Hernandez hasn't won 20 games. He has, however, had a lot of wins snatched away by bad bullpens after he's left a game early.
4. Those pitchers of old also knew when to coast. "I have an 6-1 lead? Why not throw a fastball down the middle to this No. 9 hitter? He can't hurt me much anyway." (David Price did that very thing Sunday. He led 7-1, gave up two solo homers and didn't leave the game until he had walked two in a row with two out in the ninth.)
5. They knew part of their job was to win games, not "to give the team a chance to win." Hey, I can give the team a chance to win by showing up and cheering loudly, but I don't think that's as important as getting a win.

I see the problem, if it is one (and I think it is), of not having many 20-game winners getting even worse. I see highly touted prospects in the Texas League leaving start after start after 3-4-5 innings, and maybe 60-70 pitches thrown, "to keep down their innings count." Some of those starts are in the insidious practice of piggybacking two guys for 4 or 5 innings each.
Soon these pampered, overhyped and soon-to-be-overpaid pitchers will arrive in the majors, and won't even be capable of going 6-7 innings.
It makes sense that the starters are the most talented pitchers on a staff. Limiting their innings and turning those over to less-talented relievers -- and increasing numbers of relievers, because the starters will be working fewer innings -- can only reduce the number of wins for those starters.
It's likely that it will be just a few years before 20-game winners go the way of 30-game winners. When some middle reliever leads the league with 15 wins, that will be further "evidence" that wins aren't important. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
The first sign of the baseball apocalypse will be when MLB changes the scoring rules to declare that a starter needs just 4 innings, or maybe even 3, to qualify for a win.

Friday, July 4, 2014

A's keep getting better

In recent years, didn't ESPN have a lot more than Friday's two telecasts on their Fourth of July schedule?
No matter. I still got to watch parts of ESP's pair, plus two others -- Cubs-Nationals and Rangers-Mets. While out running errands, I also had a chance to hear a couple of innings of Phillies-Pirates on the car's satellite radio.
Cubs RHP Jason Hammel looked very good in beating Washington. Who knew then that by the end of the day he'd be Athletics RHP Jason Hammel?
Bigger news than victories by the Yankees over the Twins, or the Pirates over the Phillies, or the Mets over the Rangers, was Oakland's trade that picked up Hammel and RHP Jeff Samardzija for the low current price of RHP Dan Straily, prospects SS Addison Russell and OF Billy McKinney and a player to be named.
The Athletics already were the best team in the American League. By turning not enough able-bodied starters into what could be a surplus, they also have a chance to trade to improve themselves in other areas such as the outfield and middle infield.
The Cubs? Well, they'll muddle through another season. In the off-season, they'll hope their minor league prospects aren't overhyped in the way virtually all of the prospects have been in their recent history. And that at least two prospects from the Athletics organization haven't been oversold.
A couple of today's starters left their game early because of injury. Mets LHP Jonathan Niese went out in the first inning because of a back injury that is being considered minor. Pirates RHP Gerrit Cole left because of a strained latissimus muscle that could be more problematic.
Cole pitched five scoreless innings for the win over Philadelphia. That shouldn't be a surprise. I found out from the Phils' broadcast that it was the 25th time in their first 86 games that they've been held scoreless for at least the first five innings.
Another interesting tidbit from the Yankees-Twins game: Minnesota C Kurt Suzuki, a patient hitter, went more than 140 plate appearances last season without swinging at a first pitch. He apparently learned that patience while with the Athletics.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

The defensive All-Stars


The All-Star ballot I outlined in an earlier post took only batting into account.
I didn’t project a better-rounded team because there aren’t established metrics that everyone can agree on for fielding or baserunning.
Fielding has Range Factor, a fairly simple metric that tells part of the story. By merely dividing total chances by games (or 9 innings), you can get a measure of how much ground a player covers. That way you can differentiate a player who can get to a lot of batted balls from another who makes plays on balls hit close to him.
What it can’t tell you is whether a player’s Range Factor is higher because he has more balls hit in his direction than other players at his position. For example, if he’s a third baseman on a team with three or four left-handed starting pitchers and a large number of ground-ball pitchers.
Other people will tell you about DWAR, Defensive Wins Above Replacement, even after your eyes glaze over from boredom and an aversion to math.
First basemen and catchers don’t have measurable range. For 1Bs, I’m using DWAR. Catchers do have a viable measure, catcher’s ERA, in addition to DWAR.
By combining the available metrics, I came up with this list of defensive All-Stars that I voted for on a ballot in addition to my "true" offensive All-Stars:
American League
C Salvador Perez, Royals
1B Mike Napoli, Red Sox
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
3B Josh Donaldson, Athletics
SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
LF Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics
CF Leonys Martin, Rangers
RF Nick Markakis, Orioles
National League
C Yadier Molina, Cardinals
1B Matt Adams, Cardinals
2B Brandon Phillips, Reds
3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants
SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
LF Khris Davis, Brewers
CF Marcell Ozuna, Marlins
RF Jason Heyward, Braves
Three players are on both my offensive and defensive All-Star teams. I don't think you could come up with a good reason not to vote for Donaldson, Ramirez and Tulowitzki. OK, you're going to tell me Donaldson has more errors than anyone west of Pedro Alvarez, but at the time I checked the defensive metrics, Donaldson led major league third basemen in DWAR and the AL third sackers in Range Factor.
Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado and Athletics RF Josh Reddick would have been on my defensive ballot, but they're injured.
There were some ties. 
With only one metric, DWAR, at first base -- and precious little positive value, with just four 1B above 0.0 when I checked the numbers, there was little choice. Napoli tied with Kansas City's Eric Hosmer and Adams with San Diego's Yonder Alonso. I broke the tie the way Gold Glove voters seem to, by which is the better offensive player. In hindsight, I should have gone with Hosmer in the AL. He is a truly gifted defender. Don't talk to me about the Diamondbacks' Paul Goldschmidt. I haven't seen him in person very much, but when I have he has struck me as a good hitter but not a good fielder. At the time I looked at DWARs, Goldschmidt was at -0.5, or a greater negative value than any first baseman's positive value.
Speaking of defense, I just noticed that I made an error at second base in the NL. The Rockies' D.J. LeMahieu ranked ahead of Phillips in both RF and DWAR.
For the NL catcher, Molina and the Giants' Buster Posey had the same combined ranking. As a tiebreaker, I used DWAR, where Molina ranked higher, ahead of CERA, where Posey led the league.
Similarly, Ozuna's superior DWAR broke a tie with the Cardinals' Peter Bourjos and Heyward's major league-best DWAR in right field put him ahead of Marlins RF Giancarlo Stanton. By the way, lost among some pretty good offensive statistics, Miami has probably the majors' best outfield defense. LF Christian Yelich also ranked second in the NL in the combined metrics.
* * *
I also looked for individual base-running metrics that could help in establishing a list of well rounded All-Stars, but there didn't seem to be enough evidence (call it small sample size) to make an educated guess about one player over another. Baseball Prospectus' base-running metric (positive and negative runs) includes five different types of runs -- Ground Advancement, Stolen Base, Air Advancement, Hit Advancement and Other Advancement.
There could be some merit in the larger sampling of team base-running runs. At the time I researched this post, the Royals led the majors with almost 10 runs, 50% more than the runner-up Mariners. The Cubs led the NL. By far, the worst teams were the Red Sox and Athletics, with the old and infirm Phillies last in the National League. 
KC's base-running prowess could be a reason why the Royals stayed in contention despite some atrocious hitting. Base-running appeared to be just another problem for Boston, another aging team with injury issues. I was surprised to see the Rangers among the AL base-running leaders, because even during their recent contending days they have made miserable mistakes on the bases. Texas was slightly above 0. I'm guessing the positive ranking could have been built on Stolen Base Runs -- with a trio of base stealers in Martin, Elvis Andrus and Alex Rios
There didn't appear to be much correlation between good base-running teams and teams high in the standings. Four teams currently in playoff position ranked in the top third in base-running, but three "playoff teams" ranked in the bottom third.

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Player rankings

Here are offensive player rankings at each position for each league. It includes only players who (through June 12) would qualify for a batting title.
The numbers after their name are their total rank for Hittability and Strikeability at their position. For example, among the 11 qualifying catchers, Kurt Suzuki ranked seventh in slugging percentage and first in W/K ratio (7+1=8).

Catchers
AL-1. Kurt Suzuki, Twins 8, 2. Salvador Perez, Royals 9, 3. Yan Gomes, Indians 13, 4. A.J. Pierzynski, Red Sox 19, 5. Brian McCann, Yankees 19, 6. Jason Castro, Astros 20.
NL-1. Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers 4, 2. Miguel Montero, D-backs 6, 3. Buster Posey, Giants 11, 4. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies 11, 5. Yadier Molina, Cardinals 12.
First Basemen
AL-1. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 6, 2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 17, 3. Albert Pujols, Angels 18, 4. Adam Dunn, White Sox 18, 5. Brandon Moss, Athletics 21, 6. James Loney, Rays 25, 7. Mike Napoli, Red Sox 26, 8. Jose Abreu, White Sox 27, 9. Alberto Callaspo, Athletics 27, 10. Chris Davis, Orioles 31, 11, Joe Mauer, Twins 35, 12. Chris Carter, Astros 37, 13. Nick Swisher, Indians 37, 14. Justin Smoak, Mariners 44, 15. Eric Hosmer, Royals 45.
NL-1. Adam LaRoche, Nationals 8, 2. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 10, 3. Freddie Freeman, Braves 15, 4. Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 23, 5. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers 25, 6. Justin Morneau, Rockies 28, 7. Lucas Duda, Mets 28, 8. Garrett Jones, Marlins 32, 9. Mark Reynolds, Brewers 37, 10. Yonder Alonso, Padres 38, 11. Ryan Howard, Phillies 44.
Second Basemen
AL-1. Brian Dozier, Twins 7, 2. Jose Altuve, Astros 11, 3. Robinson Cano, Mariners 12, 4. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 14, 5. Ben Zobrist, Rays 18, 6. Ian Kinsler, Tigers 20, 7. Howie Kendrick, Angels 23, 8. Brian Roberts, Yankees 28, 9. Jonathan Schoop, Orioles 39.
NL-1. Anthony Rendon, Nationals 11, 2. Chase Utley, Phillies 12, 3. Daniel Murphy, Mets 12, 4. Neil Walker, Pirates 17, 5. Dee Gordon, Dodgers 24, 6. Scooter Gennett, Brewers 25, 7. Aaron Hill, D-backs 28, 8. D.J. LeMahieu, Rockies 30, 9. Brandon Phillips, Reds 31, 10. Brandon Hicks, Giants 31, 11. Danny Espinosa, Nationals 36, 12. Emilio Bonifacio, Cubs 36, 13. Jedd Gyorko, Padres 41.
Third Basemen
AL-1. Josh Donaldson, Athletics 7, 2. Yangervis Solarte, Yankees 7, 3. Adrian Beltre, Rangers 9, 4. Kurt Seager, Mariners 12, 5. Carlos Santana, Indians 19, 6. Trevor Plouffe, Twins 20, 7. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays 22, 8. Evan Longoria, Rays 23, 9. Nick Castellanos, Tigers 26, 10. Matt Dominguez, Astros 26.
NL-1. Todd Frazier, Reds 10, 2. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates 15, 3. Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 16, 4. Casey McGehee,  Marlins 18, 5. Pablo Sandoval, Giants 19, 6. Martin Prado, D-backs 28, 7. David Wright, Mets 30, 8. Chris Johnson, Braves 35.
Shortstops
AL-1. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox 9, 2. Jose Reyes, Blue Jays 15, 3. Erick Aybar, Angels 16, 4. Jed Lowrie, Athletics 17, 5. Yunel Escobar, Rays 22, 6. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox 24, 7. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians 25, 8. Elvis Andrus, Rangers 26, 9. Alcides Escobar, Royals 29, 10. Derek Jeter, Yankees 33, 11. J.J. Hardy, Orioles 37, 12. Brad Miller, Mariners 44.
NL-1. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies 3, 2. Brandon Crawford, Giants 15, 3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies 17, 4. Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals 19, 5. Ian Desmond, Nationals 22, 6. Starlin Castro, Cubs 22, 7. Hanley Ramirez, Dodgers 22, 8. Andrelton Simmons, Braves 24, 9. Chris Owings, D-backs 28, 10. Jean Segura, Brewers 42, 11. Adeiny Hechavarria, Marlins 44, 12. Everth Cabrera, Padres 47, 13. Zack Cozart, Reds 48.
Left Fielders
AL-1. Michael Brantley, Indians 8, 2. Nelson Cruz, Orioles 9, 3. Alex Gordon, Royals 14, 4. Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays 17, 5. Shin-soo Choo, Rangers 18, 6. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics 20, 7. Matt Joyce, Rays 23, 8. Brett Gardner, Yankees 30, 9. Dustin Ackley, Mariners 30, 10. Rajai Davis, Blue Jays 31, 11. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox 34, 12. Alfonso Soriano, Yankees 37.
NL-1. Seth Smith, Padres 7, 2. Justin Upton, Braves 13, 3. Christian Yelich, Marlins 19, 4. Matt Holliday, Cardinals 20, 5. Michael Morse, Giants 21, 6. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 25, 7. Khris Davis, Brewers 27, 8. Junior Lake, Cubs 32, 9. Domonic Brown, Phillies 33, 10. Starling Marte, Pirates 37.
Center Fielders
AL-1. Coco Crisp, Athletics 7, 2. Mike Trout, Angels 9, 3. Dexter Fowler, Astros 14, 4. Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees 16, 5. Austin Jackson, Tigers 19, 6. Desmond Jennings, Rays 23, 7. Adam Jones, Orioles 24, 8. Michael Bourn, Indians 27, 9. Adam Eaton, White Sox 28, 10. Leonys Martin, Rangers 32, 11. Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox 34.
NL-1. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates 5, 2. Angel Pagan, Giants 13, 3. Denard Span, Nationals 14, 4. Carlos Gomez, Brewers 15, 5. Matt Kemp, Dodgers 18, 6. Marcell Ozuna, Marlins 23, 7. B.J. Upton, Braves 31, 8. Billy Hamilton, Reds 33, 9. Ben Revere, Phillies 35.
Right Fielders
AL-1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays 4, 2. David Murphy, Indians 15, 3. Nick Markakis, Orioles 16, 4. George Springer, Astros 23, 5. Alex Rios, Rangers 23, 6. Norichika Aoki, Royals 26, 7. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox 30, 8. Torii Hunter, Tigers 31, 9. Wil Myers, Rays 31.
NL-1. Yasiel Puig, Dodgers 7, 2. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins 10, 3. Hunter Pence, Giants 15, 4. Ryan Braun, Brewers 18, 5. Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 18, 6. Jayson Werth, Nationals 20, 7. Jason Heyward, Braves 24, 8. Curtis Granderson, Mets 26, 9. Marlon Byrd, Phillies 28, 10. Gerardo Parra, D-backs 28, 11. Allen Craig, Cardinals 33, 12. Nate Schierholtz, Cubs 39.
Designated Hitters
AL-1. Victor Martinez, Tigers 2, 2. David Ortiz, Red Sox 4, 3. Billy Butler, Royals 6.
Notes: Yangervis Solarte seems intent on proving me wrong.
In case of ties, I gave the advantage to the player with the higher slugging percentage.

The one true All-Star ballot

Wednesday night at Rangers Ballpark, Margaret amused herself by filling out the All-Star ballots as we arrived at the game against the Marlins.
After filling out a few with Rangers in the American League lineup as the scoreboard reminded us and  Pirates in the National League as a nod to my favorite team, she asked me who I'd like to vote for.
I tried to figure out in my head which players I'd choose, and she punched out a couple of ballots with those picks.
Two days later, I did some rudimentary statistical research and came up with a more scientific list. Turns out that 10 of the 19 picks were the same, so I guess "in my head" had some good ideas.
My method was the Hittability (slugging percentage) and Strikeability (W/K ratio) ratings that I've used to determine both overall offensive performance and those players who are overachieving or underachieving.
The lineups I'll be advocating when I make out my one ballot this weekend will be thus:
American League -- C Kurt Suzuki, Twins; 1B Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays; 2B Brian Dozier, Twins; 3B Josh Donaldson, Athletics; SS-Alexei Ramirez, White Sox; LF-Michael Brantley, Indians; CF-Coco Crisp, Athletics; RF-Jose Bautista, Blue Jays; DH-Victor Martinez, Tigers.
National League -- C Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks*; 1B-Adam LaRoche, Nationals; 2B-Anthony Rendon, Nationals; 3B-Todd Frazier, Reds; SS-Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; LF-Seth Smith, Padres; CF-Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; RF-Yasiel Puig, Dodgers.
*-Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy actually came out on top, but I couldn't in good conscience vote for a Milwaukee player so I'll put runner-up Montero on the ballot.
Lucroy was one of the players I gave Margaret for her punching pleasure that won't appear on the ballot I punch out or record online. The others who didn't make my final cut were D-backs 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Pirates 2B Neil Walker, Mets 3B David Wright and I'm not sure about the other NL outfielder (maybe the Giants' Hunter Pence?) and, in the American League, Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera, Astros 2B Jose Altuve and Angels OF Mike Trout.
As I noted, I'm voting just once. Perhaps it's the purist in me, but I don't believe in blindly punching out piles of ballots for just the home team's players. I mean, do Rangers 1B Prince Fielder and Pirates OF Starling Marte really deserve to start in the All-Star game? But I realize that filling out a ballot strictly on party lines is a staple among American voters.
I like my ballot and believe it is representative of players having the first half, or at least first 2 1/2 months, of the 2014 season. I believe I'm well informed, but I also know that other well informed baseball fans would disagree on a number of choices, not just Coco Crisp.
I don't have a problem with less-informed fans or even non-fans should vote. This is a good way to get people interested in baseball and All-Star Game, people who might not care otherwise. And there is another long-standing tradition in American elections of people who aren't very well informed (or worse) casting their ballots.
On that patriotic note, Happy Flag Day!

Friday, June 13, 2014

Complete game epidemic

Two nights, two top right-handers pitching their first career major league complete games -- and first shutouts.

Rangers RHP Yu Darvish did it Wednesday, and Tigers RHP Max Scherzer got in barely under two starts with his first on Thursday.

In today's game of pitch counts and general coddling of pitchers, complete games are becoming increasingly rare. They now are almost always shutouts, because only a low-scoring, low-baserunner effort can get starters in under their pitch limit.

Another first Thursday was the first victory of 2014 by Rockies RHP Jhoulys Chacin. If he can continue to pitch well, up to the standard he has set during his first few years in the majors, Colorado could stay in the wild-card race if not in contention in the difficult National League West.

The reduction in starters' innings necessarily has raised the number of relief innings in the majors. And with the relatively new one-inning-at-a-time philosophy, that means more relievers in a game. Many of them are the hanger-on type of lefty reliever.

It's not a first for Brewers LHP Zach Duke, unless you consider that this is his first year with more than three wins since 2010.

He's in his 10th major league season, but aside from a 1-0 record with in nine games for the 2012 Nationals, he hadn't had a winning record since his brilliant 2005 rookie year with the Pirates: 8-2, 1.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .253 opponents' batting average.

Even with that season and this year's 4-0, 1.37 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .219 OBA in 26 1/3 innings, Duke has career numbers of 43-76, 4.49, 1.48 and 3.03.

With his fifth major league team, all in the NL, Duke has struck out 34. His strikeout rate is way more than double that of 2008, when he struck out just 87 in 185 innings. Originally slated as the Brewers' one-lefty-batter reliever so common among the hanger-on left-handers, Duke has assumed much more responsibility in Milwaukee's bullpen.

I'll have some All-Star talk for you later.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Wednesday's best pitcher? Yu

Wednesday night I was a spectator at a baseball game for the first time this season.
Yu Darvish was at his considerable best in a 6-0 shutout of the Marlins. It was his first complete game in the North American major leagues, and thus his first shutout as well.
The most impressive of his 10 strikeouts came in the sixth inning against RF Giancarlo Stanton. On the third strike, Stanton backed away and took a half-hearted swing at a pitch that broke sharply down and away from the plate. It was just unfair.
That at-bat inspired me to develop an unscientific scale of how hard batters swing. The original inspiration was Reds CF Billy Hamilton early this season when he took a short, downward-chopping swing at a fastball by (I believe Cubs RHP Jeff Samardzija) after the ball already at crossed the plate.
That weakest swing I've ever seen by a major league batter established the scale at 1 Hamilton. I rated Stanton's swing against Darvish at 8.7 Hamiltons. During the two-game series against the Rangers, Stanton swung the bat as hard as 60 Hamiltons.
The hardest swinger I've seen this year is Frisco C Tomas Telis, who currently tops the scale at about 85 Hamiltons. Telis is a short-stocky guy who rarely gets cheated on his swings. He also rarely misses the ball entirely. At the beginning of this week, at least, he was leading the Double-A Texas League in batting average. Telis is also good at blocking low pitches and has a strong arm. I'm expecting that he would arrive in the majors this September.
* * *
The talk of baseball the last couple of days has been Athletics LF Yoenis Cespedes -- not for his hitting, but for two on-the-fly strikes to throw out runners. Memo to teams playing against Oakland: When Cespedes misplays a ball in the field, don't try to take an extra base. Angels 2B Howie Kendrick and 1B Albert Pujols have found that out to their detriment.
* * *
The other Rangers apparently stayed alive in the Stanley Cup finals. Remember hockey?
It figures that it would take a monumental effort by goalie Henrik Lundqvist, the primary reason why New York got this far in the playoffs. He made 40 saves, 15 in the scoreless third period, as the Rangers held on to defeat the Kings 2-1. New York's Ryan Callahan-for-Martin St. Louis trade also paid off. St. Louis scored what proved to be the game-winning goal.
Perhaps the Rangers could get lucky again at home in Game 5 on Friday the 13th.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

The Legend of Joey Gallo

Joey Gallo is dating a Disney star, but he might have a greater flair for the dramatic.
The Texas Rangers prospect made his long-awaited debut with the Double-A Frisco RoughRiders Monday and wasted no time showing a half-full stadium what the fuss was all about.
Gallo's first swing made a resounding CRACK! and sent a foul ball down the right field line out of the park almost before I could see it. His next swing hit the ball nearly as hard, but on the ground down the first base line. Midland first baseman Max Muncy almost fell over fielding the ball behind the bag, but beat Gallo to the base as a run scored.
His next three times up, Gallo struck out. He batted again with two teammates on base and two out in the bottom of the ninth of a 4-4 game.
Athletics farmhand Seth Frankoff fell behind Gallo 2-0. The right-hander tried to pitch the lefty-swinging Gallo away with a change up.
The 20-year-old swung and hit the ball very high, but how far? Very far. It cleared the left-center field fence and landed at the base of a video display board some 400 feet from home plate.
After Gallo rounded third base, he sent his batting helmet skyward and prepared for an enthusiastic greeting from his new team gathered around home plate. After signing autographs along the third-base stands on the way to the clubhouse, he met the assembled media.
There's video, and the best account I saw was Kevin Sherrington's column in the Dallas Morning News.
Speaking of video, Gallo's girlfriend is 19-year-old Allie DeBerry, best known for her work on the Disney Channel's "A.N.T. Farm."
Tuesday night, I was at the Marlins-Rangers game. Miami RF Giancarlo Stanton hit a ball about as hard as Gallo had the night before. The line drive wasn't high enough to clear the left field wall. The wonder was that the ball didn't go THROUGH the wall. So that was a double instead of a home run.
The Marlins' star was LF Christian Yelich, who was 4-for-6 with four RBI. He hustled his way into a double on what appeared to be a routine single to center field. That was part of my most favorable impression of Miami's surprising team. The Marlins run the bases very aggressively and pressure defenses. Stanton went daringly from first to third on a single to left field. That play led to throwing errors by LF Michael Choice and RHP Tanner Scheppers. When the Little Leaguers finally corraled the ball, instead of having Marlins at first and third, they had a run and a runner at third.
While I was there, I received some updates from Frisco. Gallo doubled home a run in the first inning and hit a home run (his 23rd between Class A Myrtle Beach and Frisco). I found out this mornign that he walked in his other two appearances. In seven Double-A at-bats, Gallo has six RBI.
A legend indeed.

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Hockey stretches out season, geography

I'm breaking into my baseball inactivity to write a bit about hockey.
Before the Stanley Cup finals get too far along, and with the Kings leading 1-0 in games, I'll say that Los Angeles is my pick to win the title. The Rangers and Henrik Lindqvist are proof that a team with a hot goalie can go far in the playoffs, and I can't count them out.
But then, what do I know? My initial picks for the finals were St. Louis and Boston.
In putting together some personal biographical information yesterday, I checked out the American Hockey League's Calder Cup playoff history to refresh my memory on what season I was a beat writer for the Rochester Americans. My initial thought was 1976-77, but then I thought perhaps it was '78-79.
Turned out that my initial thought was correct -- Rochester did lose the Calder Cup finals in six games to Al MacNeil's Nova Scotia Voyageurs in 1976-77. As I recalled, the finals were in early May. (Just checked that; Game 6 was April 30, but I probably flew home May 1.
Anyway, my trip to the AHL website showed me that this year's Calder Cup finals still are going on. At least they will be beginning tonight. It's the Texas Stars against the St. John's IceCaps. And if the series goes seven games, it would go even longer than the interminable NHL and NBA playoffs. Calder Cup Game 7 is scheduled for June 23. Summer hockey!
I don't know much about either team, except that Texas has a number of players who were up and down with Dallas this season. Included are a couple who went back after the NHL parent team was eliminated in the Stanley Cup first round.
I did know that the Texas Stars play in Cedar Park, Texas, near Austin. But I had to check the IceCaps website to see exactly where they're from. It's not St. John, New Brunswick, which did/maybe still does have an AHL team, but St. John's, Newfoundland, which I think was new found because it's the closest spot in North American from Europe.
So there's a bit of travel involved from deep in the heart of to an island out in the Atlantic Ocean, right?
Right. The competing cities are 3,450 miles apart. The driving time is estimated at 58 hours. I don't believe that includes the 110-mile ferry ride between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, or the time waiting for the ferry. The route would go through three Canadian provinces and 14 U.S. states. The cities are 2 1/2 time zones apart, because Newfoundland has its own time zone that is half an hour ahead of Atlantic Time in Canada's other maritime provinces.
For a sense of perspective, 3,450 miles is about the distance from New York to London, but with less of it over water. In the coast-to-coast Stanley Cup finals, New York and LA are about 1,000 miles closer to each other.
* * *
Friday night, I saw a Texas Rangers prospect, Double-A Frisco RoughRiders RHP Alec Asher, impressively mow down a verifiably weak San Antonio lineup. In seven innings, Asher allowed two hits, a single and a triple, no walks and no runs while using just 84 pitches. The visiting Missions do have some prospects, such as OF Rymer Liriano and C Austin Hedges, but they were no match for Asher. My one concern about Asher, who last night pitched better than I'd ever seen him, is that he's not a strikeout pitcher even though he has a mid-90s fastball. I'd compare him a pitcher with less velocity but similar results: Rangers RHP Nick Martinez. Both of them have to command both the fastball and something crooked and off-speed to be successful in any given start. That might sound like the formula for any pitcher, but my point is that neither Asher nor Martinez need the off-speed stuff to make straightish fastballs more effective in a way that Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish and other dominant major league starters don't have to.
I challenge anyone, even in the Rangers organization, to tell me they knew when circumstances forced 2B Rougned Odor to jump from Double-A ball to the majors with barely a hiccup after just a few dozen games above A ball. But with a 400-foot home run and a .280ish average Friday, Odor has done just that. He's supremely confident, with some swagger and flair, but he's justifying that opinion of himself. On a lesser level, SS/2B Luis Sardinas has held his own with Texas since a similar promotion.
Before I forget, here's an expression of my admiration for 3B Adrian Beltre as a professional. A couple of weeks ago, with the Rangers' offense in an even deeper slump than usual this season, Beltre took the burden on himself. That's a leader's perspective, but he's a leader in part because he's willing to stand up and take responsibility. Still, it's easier to say than it is to do. Beltre, who still can beat an opponent with anything but his legs, is walking the walk. He has even stepped his hitting up a notch this week. He hit three home runs in a three-game series against his own personal punching bags, the Orioles. Beltre now has 9 homers in his last 11 games vs. Baltimore.
Big series in Pittsburgh this weekend. The Brewers are trying to keep their perch in the NL Central lead with a fairly wide gulf between themselves and the .500 Cardinals and sub-.500 Pirates. The Bucs are trying to climb into serious contention for really the first time this season. If they didn't wear themselves out circling the bases 15 times Friday night, they have a chance to move within four games of the lead. Pittsburgh's latest unlikely heroes have been SS Jordy Mercer and utilityman Josh Harrison, who has grabbed a hold of the leadoff spot with both hands.

Friday, May 30, 2014

Twins on the rise?

Some observations from Thursday's games.
I watched the Twins and Rangers, a 5-4 Texas victory, and came away impressed with Minnesota's improvement.
The Twinkies have had some players on a shuttle between the Twin Cities and Triple-A Rochester, and it's seeming less likely that OF Oswaldo Arcia, SS Eduardo Escobar and SS/OF Danny Santana will need their return ticket back East.
Arcia swings a mean bat. He hit a career-high 24 homers last season between the Twins and Red Wings, but his offensive strength seems to be more in driving balls to the right-center field gap. He showed nascent power in his last full minor league season in 2012 by belting 26 doubles. Rangers outfielders seemed to spend a lot of time during the series in Minnesota running back toward the scoreboard in center for balls Arcia hit.
Escobar has slumped a bit lately, but he seems to be continuing his personal trend of improvement his second time at a level. In those situations, his batting average has gone up from the .230 range to .290-.300-plus. In any event, he's a big offensive step up from Pedro Florimon, but with less speed.
Santana is listed as a shortstop too, but he had a three-hit game as the center fielder in place of heralded, and disappointing, prospect Aaron Hicks. There seems likely to be a place for Santana as long as he hits.
As a team, Minnesota will need more pitching to be a serious contender.
On the Texas side, rookie RHP Nick Martinez started, and struggled. He left in the fifth inning of a 4-4 game. He has done far more for the Rangers than they would have expected from a guy they didn't even invite to major league spring training. What he showed Thursday was that he needs his curve to be effective. Against the Twins, it alternated from not breaking the way it usually has in his brief major league career to sitting in the middle of the plate so OF/DH Josh Willingham could hit it out of the park.  Martinez has some upside, just don't expect his future to be high in a major league rotation.
While I'm on the subject of pitchers, I'm going to continue my usual distaste for the DH rule. One of the arguments for it is "I don't like to watch pitchers making outs." OK, then let's get DHs for Brad Miller and Will Venable too.
I do like to watch pitchers contributing with their bat and their glove.
Martinez helped defuse a rally by fielding C Josmil Pinto's weak ground ball in front of the plate with the bases loaded, and shoveling the ball to C Robinson Chirinos for a force out. That wouldn't seem so big, except that Texas lost a game in the series when RHP Joakim Soria couldn't field a similar grounder.
Extending the DH rule to the National League would deprive some good-hitting pitchers of having a chance to help themselves with their offense. Cy Young winner LHP Clayton Kershaw would be one of those. Also, Reds RHP Mike Leake, who has the most hits of any pitcher over a 4- or 5-year span. OK, so Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo was a pinch hitter and not the pitcher when his 10th-inning double Tuesday when his double drove in the winning run, but you get the idea.
Pirates RHP Gerrit Cole didn't have a hit Thursday, so his average dropped to .250. What he did was follow two singles by SS Clint Barmes with sacrifice bunts, setting up two run-scoring singles by electric RF Josh Harrison in a 6-3 victory over the Dodgers. Cole's second bunt was in the seventh inning, and because he can handle a bat the Pirates ace was able to stay in the game for the bottom of the inning in his team-high fifth win.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Tulo is too high for anyone to match; consider Lucroy

Here's a study of major league batters at about the one-third point of the season.
It corresponds with my post on pitchers.
The measures are similar to the Strikeability (strikeout:walk ratio) and Hittability (opponents' batting average) from the pitchers post. For batters we turn around Strikeability to walk:strikeout ratio, and use slugging percentage for Hittability.
Again, there's a scale of 1-4, derived by dividing the players on a pace to qualify for the batting average  title into four quartiles from top to bottom, for both Strikeability and Hittability. Those yield combined ratings from 2 (best) to 8 (worst).
The batters rated 2, the best in the majors this season, are Troy Tulowitzki, Victor Martinez, Seth Smith, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Freddie Freeman, Michael Brantley, David Ortiz (who hasn't had to beg for all of his hits), Jonathan Lucroy, Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Pence.
At the other end of the scale, 8 ratings went to Jonathan Schoop, Jean Segura, Everth Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Chris Johnson, Leonys Martin, Billy Hamilton, Josh Reddick, Ben Revere, Marcus Semien, Adelny Hechavarria, Jackie Bradley, Zack Cozart, Jedd Gyorko, Alejandro De Aza, Nate Schierholtz and Will Venable.
Note that the 8 list contains plenty of outfielders and shortstops who could keep their jobs because of their defense and even earn some fantasy points by stealing bases.
The following lists indicate and rank players whose W/K ratios and slugging percentages indicate that they could improve their fantasy statistics during the remainder of the season, along with other players whose Strikeability and Hittability could be foreshadowing a decline during the season's second two-thirds.
Sleepers/keepers: 1. Jonathan Lucroy (fourth quartile in HR and R, third in RBI); 2. Seth Smith (third quartile in RBI and R); 3. Hunter Pence (fourth quartile in RBI); 4. Andrew McCutchen (fourth quartile in HR); 5. Salvador Perez (fourth quartile in HR, RBI and R, third in BA); 6. Matt Joyce (fourth quartile in HR and R, third in RBI); 7. Jose Reyes (fourth quartile in HR and RBI, third in BA); 8. Adam Dunn (fourth quartile in BA and R); 9. Jose Altuve (fourth quartile in HR and RBI); 10. David Murphy (fourth quartile in R, third in HR). Mike Napoli and Joey Votto also could be among the top 10 keepers, but they're injured.
Other candidates for improved stats are Daniel Murphy, Jimmy Rollins, Yadier Molina, Yangervis Solarte, Chase Utley, Shin-soo Choo, Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, Edwin Encarnacion, Brian Dozier, Coco Crisp, Brett Lawrie, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Carlos Ruiz, Denard Span, Mark Reynolds, Dustin Pedroia, Angel Pagan, Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Montero, Kyle Seager, Ian Kinsler, James Loney, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, A.J. Pollock, Jhonny Peralta, Adrian Beltre, Hanley Ramirez and Buster Posey.
Given nearly a full-time job, Smith has blossomed in his new surroundings with the Padres, even though those surroundings include one of the least-hitter-friendly home parks.
A word on Solarte: I've been meaning all spring to caution against putting him on your roster. The numbers say he could improve, because he has a high W/K ratio. My feeling has been that Solarte was a false hope for his Yankees and fantasy fans. He played eight minor league seasons without a whiff of the majors, even last season when the Rangers had injuries in their infield. Sure, he batted close to .300 for almost two months, but I think he's more likely to bat closer to .200 for another two-month stretch.
Another sleeper to consider, if he's still available in your league, is red-hit Astros rookie OF George Springer. He's off to a good start in a hitter-friendly home park, and if Houston continues to lose he could see a lot of fastballs from pitchers with big leads.
Slumpers/dumpers: 1. Ben Revere (first quartile in BA); 2. Jean Segura (second quartile in BA and R); 3. Jedd Gyorko (second quartile in RBI); 4. Everth Cabrera (second quartile in R); 5. Leonys Martin (second quartile in BA); 6. Gerardo Parra (first quartile in R, second in BA); 7. Martin Prado (second quartile in RBI, BA and R); 8. Emilio Bonifacio (second quartile in BA and R); 9. Jason Castro (second quartile in HR and RBI); 10. A.J. Pierzynski (second quartile in RBI and BA). Chris Colabello would have been on the list if the Twins hadn't already sent him to the minors.
Others whose outlook isn't brilliant for the June-September period are Wil Myers, Danny Espinosa, Brandon Phillips, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Marcel Ozuna, David Wright, Ian Desmond, Evan Longoria, Rajai Davis, Brett Lawrie, J.J. Hardy, Eric Young, Norichika Aoki, Yan Gomes, Allen Craig, Joe Mauer, Aaron Hill, D.J. LeMahieu, Matt Dominguez, Chris Owings, Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner.
Here's a ranking of every qualifying batter from 1-177.
Top quarter -- (2 rating) 1. SS Troy Tulowitzki, 2. OF Jose Bautista, 3. 1B Freddie Freeman, 4. OF Michael Brantley, 5. DH/1B Victor Martinez, 6. 3B Josh Donaldson, 7. DH Jose Ortiz, 8. OF Hunter Pence, 9. OF Seth Smith, 10. OF Andrew McCutchen, 11. C Jonathan Lucroy, (3 rating) 12. OF Nelson Cruz, 13. OF Yasiel Puig, 14. OF Giancarlo Stanton, 15. OF Charlie Blackmon, 16. OF Mike Trout, 17. 1B Adrian Gonzalez, 19. 1B/OF Brandon Moss, 20. 1B Justin Morneau, 21. 1B Albert Pujols, 22. 2B Brian Dozier, 23. 1B Anthony Rizzo, 24. 2B Neil Walker, 25. OF Shin-soo Choo, 26. 2B Chase Utley, 27. 2B Daniel Murphy, 28. C Yadier Molina, 29. 3B Yangervis Solarte, 30. 2B Jose Altuve, 31. OF David Murphy, 32. SS Jimmy Rollins, 33. 1B/OF Adam Dunn, 34. SS Jose Reyes, 35. 1B Joey Votto, 36. 1B Mike Napoli, 37. OF Matt Joyce, (4 rating) 38. OF Justin Upton, 39. OF Carlos Gomez, 40. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 41. OF Melky Cabrera, 42. SS Alexei Ramirez, 43. 1B Miguel Cabrera, 44. 3B Nolan Arenado, 45. 3B Todd Frazier.
Second quartile -- 46. SS Jhonny Peralta, 47. 2B Robinson Cano, 48. OF Matt Holliday, 49. OF Alex Rios, 50. OF Yoenis Cespedes, 51. 1B/OF Garrett Jones, 52. 2B Anthony Rendon, 53. 1B James Loney, 54. OF A.J. Pollock, 55. 1B Chris Davis, 56. 3B Adrian Beltre, 57. SS Hanley Ramirez, 58. 3B Kyle Seager, 59. C Buster Posey, 60. 2B Ian Kinsler, 61. SS Xander Bogaerts, 62. C Kurt Suzuki, 63. 2B Dustin Pedroia, 64. 1B Mark Reynolds, 65. OF Nick Markakis, 66. C Miguel Montero, 67. OF Denard Span, 68. C Carlos Ruiz, 69. OF Angel Pagan, 70. 2B Brian Roberts, 71. SS Jed Lowrie, 72. C Salvador Perez, 73. OF Coco Crisp, (5 rating) 74. 1B Jose Abreu, 75. OF/1B Michael Morse, 76. 2B Howie Kendrick, 77. OF Carlos Gonzalez, 78. OF Torii Hunter, 79. 1B Ryan Howard, 80. OF Khris Davis, 81. OF Christian Yelich, 82. OF Jayson Werth, 83. SS Starlin Castro, 84. 3B Pablo Sandoval, 85. OF Marlon Byrd, 86. 3B Eric Aybar, 87. OF Alex Gordon, 88. 1B/3B Casey McGehee, 89. 3B Pedro Alvarez, 90. 2B Dee Gordon.
Third quartile -- 91. OF Dayan Viciedo, 92. OF Jacoby Ellsbury, 93. SS Brandon Crawford, 94. 3B Trevor Plouffe, 95. 3B/2B Matt Carpenter, 96. C Brian McCann, 97. OF Dexter Fowler, 98. SS Elvis Andrus, 99. OF Junior Lake, 100. OF Desmond Jennings, 101. SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 102. 1B Chris Carter, 103. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 104. OF/1B Lance Duda, 105. 2B/OF Ben Zobrist, 106. 3B/C Carlos Santana, 107. 1B Matt Adams, 108. OF Austin Jackson, 109. SS Andrelton Simmons, 110. 1B Cecil Fielder, 111. SS Yunel Escobar, 112. 3B/SS Alberto Callaspo, (6 rating) 113. OF Adam Jones, 114. OF Marcel Ozuna, 115. 3B Evan Longoria, 116. 3B David Wright, 117. 1B Justin Smoak, 118. SS Ian Desmond, 119. OF Brett Gardner, 120. OF/1B Allen Craig, 121. C Yan Gomes, 122. OF Rajai Davis, 123. 3B Brett Lawrie, 124. 3B Matt Dominguez, 125. 1B Eric Hosmer, 126. OF Curtis Granderson, 127. 1B/C Joe Mauer, 128. OF Norichika Aoki, 129. OF Alfonso Soriano, 130. OF/2B Dustin Ackley, 131. 2B Aaron Hill, 132. 2B D.J. LeMahieu, 133. OF Eric Young, 134. SS Derek Jeter.
Bottom quarter: 135. OF Matt Kemp, 136. SS Chris Owings, 137. 2B Scooter Gennett, 138. OF Jason Heyward, 139. 1B/OF Nick Swisher, 140. 1B Billy Butler, (7 rating) 141. 3B Martin Prado, 142. OF Gerardo Parra, 143. OF/2B Emilio Bonifacio, 144. OF Wil Myers, 145. C Jason Castro, 146. C A.J. Pierzynski, 147. C Wellington Castro, 148. OF Starling Marte, 149. 1B Chris Colabello, 150. SS J.J. Hardy, 151. SS Alcides Escobar, 152. SS Brad Miller, 153. 2B Brandon Phillips, 154. 2B Danny Espinosa, 155. SS Jonathan Villar, 156. OF Ryan Ludwick, 157. OF B.J. Upton, 158. OF Domonic Brown, 159. 1B Yonder Alonso, 160. OF Jason Kubel, (8 rating) 161. SS Jean Segura, 162. OF Ben Revere, 163. SS Everth Cabrera, 164. 2B Jedd Gyorko, 165. OF Leonys Martin, 166. SS Adelny Hechavarria, 167. 2B Jonathan Schoop, 168. 3B Nick Castellanos, 169. 3B Chris Johnson, 170. OF Billy Hamilton, 171. OF Josh Reddick, 172. 3B Marcus Semien, 173. OF Jackie Bradley, 174. SS Zack Cozart, 175. OF Alejandro De Aza, 176. OF Nate Schierholtz, 177. OF Will Venable.