Open tryout camp in Arlington

During the past two days, OF Jake Smolinski and RHPs Phil Irwin and Roman Mendez became the 999th, 1,000th and 1,001st players to perform for the Washington Senators II/Texas Rangers.
The count won't stop there.
Even with the influx of new talent?, Rangers pitchers gave up 20 runs and 29 hits in two losses against the Astros. Another defeat Wednesday night could drop Texas to the worst winning percentage in the major leagues.
The Rangers were at .500 until their current 3-17 superslump. Injuries finally caught up to them.
They have 15 players on the disabled list, five of whom -- starters Matt Harrison and Martin Perez, reliever Pedro Figueroa, 1B Prince Fielder and 1B/DH Mitch Moreland -- will not play again this season.
Those absences have led to 15 players who otherwise wouldn't be in the majors making up 60% of the active roster. That necessarily has meant a decline in the talent level. For example, the bottom three hitters in Tuesday's lineup were 1B Carlos Pena, who was out of baseball early this season, and Smolinski and 2B Rougned Odor, who both began the season at Double-A Frisco.
With some questionable talent already on the roster and pretty obviously nowhere to go over the final 70 or so games of the season, there's plenty of flexibility to move players on and off the 40-man roster.
For example, Smolinski was a minor league free agent who already had spent six seasons in the Nationals and Marlins organization. Mendez is on the 40-man roster, and would be out of options next season.
And it's actually a 45-man roster, because there are also five players on the 60-day DL that don't count against the limit.
So what we'll see from the Rangers from now until September will be essentially an open tryout camp. Texas can answer questions about potential players to keep on the 40-man off-season roster. Can this guy make it in the majors? I don't know, let's put him on the 40-man and bring him up from Round Rock or Frisco.
And once this guy shows what he might be lacking, the organization can do the same thing with that guy -- until they eventually run out of guys. If the Rangers find even one keeper that way, it would be worth the mounting losses in a lost season.
* * *
The Red Sox aren't in quite such a precarious position in the standings, but they too are throwing open to rookies the doors of their lineup.
In addition to giving 3B Xander Bogaerts and OF Jackie Bradley futile major league at-bats when they still should be refining their batting skills in the minors, the Red Sox have designated 37-year-old C A.J. Pierzynski for assignment and elevated rookie C Christian Vazquez to the big leagues.
Expect more rookies, especially pitchers, during what's left of a lost season in Boston.

The one true All-Star ballot

Wednesday night at Rangers Ballpark, Margaret amused herself by filling out the All-Star ballots as we arrived at the game against the Marlins.
After filling out a few with Rangers in the American League lineup as the scoreboard reminded us and  Pirates in the National League as a nod to my favorite team, she asked me who I'd like to vote for.
I tried to figure out in my head which players I'd choose, and she punched out a couple of ballots with those picks.
Two days later, I did some rudimentary statistical research and came up with a more scientific list. Turns out that 10 of the 19 picks were the same, so I guess "in my head" had some good ideas.
My method was the Hittability (slugging percentage) and Strikeability (W/K ratio) ratings that I've used to determine both overall offensive performance and those players who are overachieving or underachieving.
The lineups I'll be advocating when I make out my one ballot this weekend will be thus:
American League -- C Kurt Suzuki, Twins; 1B Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays; 2B Brian Dozier, Twins; 3B Josh Donaldson, Athletics; SS-Alexei Ramirez, White Sox; LF-Michael Brantley, Indians; CF-Coco Crisp, Athletics; RF-Jose Bautista, Blue Jays; DH-Victor Martinez, Tigers.
National League -- C Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks*; 1B-Adam LaRoche, Nationals; 2B-Anthony Rendon, Nationals; 3B-Todd Frazier, Reds; SS-Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; LF-Seth Smith, Padres; CF-Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; RF-Yasiel Puig, Dodgers.
*-Brewers C Jonathan Lucroy actually came out on top, but I couldn't in good conscience vote for a Milwaukee player so I'll put runner-up Montero on the ballot.
Lucroy was one of the players I gave Margaret for her punching pleasure that won't appear on the ballot I punch out or record online. The others who didn't make my final cut were D-backs 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Pirates 2B Neil Walker, Mets 3B David Wright and I'm not sure about the other NL outfielder (maybe the Giants' Hunter Pence?) and, in the American League, Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera, Astros 2B Jose Altuve and Angels OF Mike Trout.
As I noted, I'm voting just once. Perhaps it's the purist in me, but I don't believe in blindly punching out piles of ballots for just the home team's players. I mean, do Rangers 1B Prince Fielder and Pirates OF Starling Marte really deserve to start in the All-Star game? But I realize that filling out a ballot strictly on party lines is a staple among American voters.
I like my ballot and believe it is representative of players having the first half, or at least first 2 1/2 months, of the 2014 season. I believe I'm well informed, but I also know that other well informed baseball fans would disagree on a number of choices, not just Coco Crisp.
I don't have a problem with less-informed fans or even non-fans should vote. This is a good way to get people interested in baseball and All-Star Game, people who might not care otherwise. And there is another long-standing tradition in American elections of people who aren't very well informed (or worse) casting their ballots.
On that patriotic note, Happy Flag Day!

Choo-Choo train good for a short trip

The baseball world is abuzz with information about the Rangers' signing of OF Shin-soo Choo.
One report even said that his signing puts Texas on top of the American League.
And if he can play close to the way he did this year in the National League, Choo could be enough to make the Rangers favorites. Definitely a playoff team, if their pitching holds up.
I don't look at the benefit of this signing so much as having Choo replace A) David Murphy, B) Nelson Cruz, C) Craig Gentry, D) Jeff Baker, E) Engel Beltre, F) All of the above in the outfield as having him replace Ian Kinsler at the top of the lineup.
Now Kinsler wasn't the worst leadoff man in the majors. His 2013 on-base percentage was .344 -- not All-Star territory, but above a replacement player.
Don't take this as thinking I don't like what Kinsler can bring to a team -- I've already endorsed Texas' acquiring 1B Prince Fielder in trade for Kinsler -- but it seems reasonable that in Fielder and Choo, the Rangers are better off than if they'd kept Kinsler and Cruz.
Choo's on-base percentage for Cincinnati this year was .423. That's 80 percentage points above Kinsler's, or over 600 plate appearances an additional 48 times on base. About once every three games. And it's not unreasonable to think that those times on base could translate to 10 or even 20 more runs. In fact, in 98 more plate appearances than Kinsler, Choo scored 22 more runs. We can give Kinsler a bit of a pass because of all the games he had the ineffective Murphy batting after him, while Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips were coming up for the Reds.
Beyond the on-base percentage -- and isn't there a beyond with just about every baseball statistic? -- Choo has it all over Kinsler.
Sure, Choo struck out more often: 133 times to 59. In part, that was because Kinsler didn't wait around for three strikes. He drew 51 walks -- a good, near 1:1 ratio -- but Choo took a whopping 112 free passes.
Of course, those walks showed up in the on-base percentage. But even deeper, we can go to a stat listed as GO/AO, ground outs/air outs. It might be because I saw Kinsler play so often, but I can't imagine a player who would pop up more often.
His GO/AO was 0.72. Is that good or bad? you might ask. Of 140 players who qualified for major league batting titles last season, Kinsler was 135th. Choo was 23rd at 1.50, so he was putting the ball on the ground for outs more than twice as often as Kinsler.
Another way to look at it. Kinsler (and Choo) made 400-some outs in 2013. That's roughly 267 outs in the air, which can be at-bats as empty as strikeouts, compared to 133 or so for Choo. But what about sacrifice flies? Fly balls can be valuable. Possibly, but Kinsler had seven sacrifice flies, compared to two by Choo. That still leaves something like 129 more unproductive outs by Kinsler.
Now you're saying, "But ground balls can be unproductive too." True. They also can move runners from first to second, from second to third and even third to home more easily. There is no sacrifice ground out stat to give batters credit for driving in a run, so we don't really know who does that more often. A ground ball is also more likely to result in an error than a ball in the air.
The trump card for ground ball haters in the double play. Certainly, those GO/AO leaders wipe out teammates in doubly damaging double plays more often. True, among the top 10 in GO/AO were three players with 20 or more GIDP: David Freese, Billy Butler and Michael Young. Choo, on the other hand, grounded into just two DPs, and Kinsler seven.
It should be clear then that Choo himself reached base more frequently and most likely did a better job moving his teammates around the bases as well.
So why is this even an issue? Choo will be the greatest thing that ever happened to the Rangers. Where is the downside?
One possible downside is moving back to the American League. This year was Choo's only season in the NL. He had a good lineup with the Reds. Even the improved 2014 lineup in Texas isn't likely to be as good. And check out his K/W (strikeout/walk) ratio in '12, his last as an American League. He struck out 150 times, and walked 73. The 150 Ks aren't even his career high. So it's reasonable to expect some regression in AL parks with AL pitchers.
The improvement in his batting eye is an example of what are described as old-man skills. Another is an increase in the frequency of extra-base hits, and indeed in the last two seasons, Choo has had a little over 10% more doubles than in his first two years in the majors. A third is a logical decline in base stealing.
But, hey! Choo has had just five full seasons in the majors, so he can improve. He's what? 27? 28? Try 31. The records show that he's just 31 days younger than Kinsler. But my policy is to add a year to the age of every player with a birth certificate from a foreign country. It's just as likely that Choo is 11 months older.
Thus, it's no surprise that he is exhibiting old-man skills. His 20 stolen bases this year were within 10% of his best full season, but his 11 times caught stealing were four more than in any other season. That's why I'm not expecting 20 this year. By the way, Kinsler's base-stealing rate declined from 30-for-34 in 2011, to 21-for-30 last season and 15-for-26 this year.
Another of my rules of thumb is that I consider the age-31 season as a plateau, before a player's decline really kicks in but not necessary a drop from the level he established during ages 27-30.
That's the real rub in signing Choo for seven years and $130 million.
In 2014, he can be very close to the player he was this year. A 5% decline, or maybe even 10%, would be better than what Texas got from Kinsler in 2013.
Similarly, 2015 might not be much worse.
But with five more years with an average of $18 million-$19 million, how can he bring the return on investment a major league team would like? Seems unlikely.
Another limiting factor is the eyeball test. Choo has never been a Slim Jim, but he looked pudgier this year than before. Will his conditioning improve now that he'll be set for life?
That conditioning could be an issue within a few years. Fielder is two years younger, but his days as a full-time DH seem closer than Choo's. And if Choo becomes too immobile to play in the outfield, how would he DH? The Rangers would have to pay a bunch of money to help pay his contract as a DH somewhere else if he is traded.
Perhaps all Texas' management wants is a better path to winning its first World Series. Choo could help deliver that. But by the time his contract ends and he's 38 (or 39), that championship would be a distant memory. It won't help that Adrian Beltre, Geovany Soto, probably Fielder and possibly Yu Darvish would also be long gone by then. Which again is why the Rangers are making these moves NOW.
Good short-term move, but far too long a contract for an aging player.
That's what I said about the Mariners and the Robinson Cano signing, except that I can't envision how Seattle was only one player away from winning in '14.
* * *
Expending these words and the time to research the information led to a couple of side issues.
1. Another benefit too the Choo signing is that it increases the likelihood that the Rangers could trade Engel Beltre while he still has some value and before he's overexposed. I think his defense is overrated, he won't hit lefties and he still has a lot of growing up to do before he could be considered a reliable player and teammate. A team needing speed and outfield defense, distracted by some empty batting averages on Beltre's resume, could cough up a helpful reliever or even a potential bottom-of-the-rotation starter in return.
2. My analysis of the Cano and Choo signings points out that Seattle and Texas don't seem overly concerned about outfield defense down the road, but willing to entrust it to players with declining mobility.
Perhaps it's a coincidence, but I noticed that the last seven players on the 2013 GO/AO list were from AL West teams: Houston's Chris Carter, Kinsler, Seattle's Justin Smoak and Kurt Seager, and Oakland's Yoenis Cespedes, Jed Lowrie and Brandon Moss. Perhaps the NL West didn't get the memo saying that baseball was moving away from sluggers toward pitching and defense. Or perhaps the Angels took the memos out of the other teams' mailboxes. Or, given the fact that the Athletics -- a well managed team attuned to sabremetrics and making very few mistakes these days -- put three of those seven players in important offensive roles, once again they may know more than we (I) do.
I also like Seager. You probably still can hear reverberations from his line drives at Rangers Ballpark.

Texas still has to pick up a pitcher

I was at Wednesday's Rockets-Mavericks game when I heard about the Ian Kinsler-for-Prince Fielder and cash trade. I was right in something I wrote a few days ago that it would be better to trade Kinsler than any of the Rangers' other major league or nearly major league-ready middle infielders. I was wrong in thinking that Kinsler would be moved as part of a trade for Rays LHP David Price. And that made me partly wrong that once Texas traded Kinsler or another middle infielder, it would have to trade for a bat.
Instead, the Rangers gave up Kinsler for a bat and some money to pay for that bat. What that means is that now Texas will have to make another trade for Price or some other front-line pitcher.
Since the trade came down, I've seen other opinions about it. Something from mlb.com, by Richard Durrett from espndallas.com and Jamey Newberg's take in The Newberg Report Email. I realized from reading them that naysayers should probably look at this deal from this perspective. Are the Rangers better with an infield of 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Elvis Andrus, 2B Jurickson Profar and 1B Prince Fielder than they would be with an infield of Beltre-Andrus-Profar and 1B Ian Kinsler?
The breakdown from the Tigers' perspective is more complex. Detroit hasn't been an organization that seemed to prize defense. And it's still not clear whether they do. Unless other moves are made, rookie Nick Castellanos is the likely third baseman, with Miguel Cabrera trading whatever he has been waving at ground balls for a first baseman's mitt. Kinsler could fill a hole at second base, but his defense isn't what it used to be. What he does best in the field is going to his right, with an above-average arm for a second baseman that's capable of throwing out runners from behind second base.
It's also true that Kinsler's offense isn't as good as it used to be, but he's an improvement over what Detroit has had at second base. But Kinsler and Castellanos or whoever else plays third base will not equal the production of Fielder and even a cipher at second base.
Where the Tigers benefit is that even with $30 million going to Texas to defray Fielder's salary, they can have some money freed up to extend the contract of RHP Max Scherzer and possibility some other soon-to-be free agents. That money will be even more important in years going forward. Or haven't you seen the state of Detroit's economy?
On another burner of the hot stove, the Royals signed LHP Jason Vargas to a four-year contract.

* * *

That baseball stuff won't have a whole lot of meaning for a few months, when we all start keeping track of the players' fantasy numbers.
But it's Thursday night in late fall, which means there was quite a bit of fantasy sports activity.
Let's start in football.
In my scoring-and-yardage league, I'm projected as a 70-point winner. I currently trial 2-0 because Atlanta WR Roddy White caught 20-some yards' worth of passes for my opponent. He has just four of his nine players remaining, because Saints RB Darren Sproles had 0 yards and three other players in his lineup are on bye weeks. All nine of my players haven't even started pre-game warmups. This situation is one of my pettest of pet peeves: giving up on a season. Hey, my team in this league has sucked too, but I think a big part of being in a LEAGUE is that you owe it to everyone in the league at least to try. In my points-only league, I trail 6-0 (a couple of TD passes by Saints quarterbacks). This opponent has five players remaining to my full roster of eight. He received no points for the aforementioned White's evening and also has a player on a bye. Now I'm on a bit of a roll in this league, but as much as what would appear to be a cheap win for me, is that really fair to the league's other contenders?
Oh, and the dumb-ass Saints didn't cover the spread, so I'm already down a game in the Pittsburgh office pool.
Hockey. I was at the Rangers-Stars game Thursday night. You can read some of my handiwork in The AP's game story. I was there with none of the players on my fantasy roster. And that accumulated Nobody might have been better than the players on my roster whose teams took the ice tonight/last night, depending on your time zone. Ten skaters, 0 goals. Thank God for Henrik Zetterberg and his three assists and plus-2. My team combined for another minus-2, which I think might have cost me a point. No, just checked, and it appears that I didn't lose any points but I lost some of my cushion in some categories. And wouldn't you think that with all three of my goalies' team playing, at least one of them would get into the game? I'm trying to replace Jonathan Huberdeau because I'm tired of having to take him out of my lineup when I see that his NHL team is playing. I did make a waiver claim, but after tonight's game I was hoping (in vain) that Rick Nash would be available.
Basketball. Let's hope this sport went better. Perhaps I got some help from the newest player to don the uniform of Team Fresh Prints in an LA H2H league -- that's the Bulls' Taj Gibson in a Los Angeles head-to-head league, if you don't know the lingo. Well, 9 points and 8 rebounds. I added him to replace the injured Danilo Gallinari because Gibson seemed to be the best option among the players actually playing Thursday night. I'll look to see if there's someone better for Friday. Joakim Noah, Gibson's teammate on both fantasy and real teams, had a good night with 11 points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists. Just set my lineup for Friday so that I have players filling 8 of the 10 active roster spots, including Gibson. I'll keep my eyes open to watch Markieff Morris and maybe John Henson, though I'd be distracted looking for his skunk stripe. After seeing Chandler Parsons Wednesday, I was hoping he might have slipped through my league's draft. No such luck. Hope my lineup scores more than my hockey players have been.

How many vegetables can Prince Fielder eat in 9 years?

While driving home last night from a basketball game in Stephenville (or was it the Mavericks' game in Dallas the night before?), I heard a discussion about whether the Tigers overpaid for Prince Fielder in dollars or length of contract.

One of the announcers kind of threw a theory and names he heard once against the wall to justify his case. His premise was that the most difficult commodity to obtain in baseball now is an "elite slugger" in the "post-steroid era."

That announcer apparently never has heard of ace pitchers. He might not even have heard of Ryan Braun, a player in Fielder's same lineup for the last few years, who metaphorically was busted with an MVP award in one hand and a syringe in the other. The announcer's best argument was that teams no longer can find a "John Jaha to hit 50 home runs."

Dude quite obviously knows more baseball than I, who wasn't even award of Jaha's 50-home run season.

Another guy -- sorry I don't have names, the voices all blend together -- agreed with the point of the Detroit Free Press' Drew Sharp, whose contention has been that the Tigers overpaid to replicate Miguel Cabrera.

Nine years and $214 million?

Point 1. GM has made a comeback. President Obama told us that. But will auto workers pay higher ticket prices to watch Cabrera, Fielder and in time presumably Victor Martinez fight to see which one could be the DH that day and not have to wear a glove?

Point 2. In the last 4 or 5 of those years, Fielder will be past his prime even as a hitter. He'd have to play at Ruthian levels during the first 4 or 5 years, during which he'd have to justify about 4150 million of that contract.

Point 3. The world's largest vegetarian already is pushing 300 pounds. Unless he lays off Cap'n Crunch for the next 9 years, it might not be long before they'd have to wheel him out to the plate. I'd endorse a rule change that would allow him to sit at his position in an easy chair on the days Justin Verlander pitches.

Of course, the Tigers overpaid. The winners in this scenario are Fielder and agent Scott Boras, who will make close to eight figures from this contract. In years to come, agents with "elite slugger" or even lowly "elite aces" will be patient, waiting for just the right opportunity -- such as the Martinez injury -- to get their clients a few dozen million extra bucks.

Even with the injury, it's difficult to believe that other teams were offering anything close to 9 years or $214 million.

Hats off to Boras and Fielder for cashing in. For the Tigers, though, their poor judgment seems likely to bring bad karma.