The hare loses again

In early August of 2012, the Texas Rangers were leading the American League West by 10 games or so. At that time I told my friend Billy, an Athletics fan, "The A's are going to catch the Rangers. It will be like the tortoise and the hare."

The Oakland tortoises did exactly that, taking the West title of the final day.

Fast forward to just a little more than 2 years later. The A's were running away in the AL West race.

Something another friend -- Frank, one of the toughest fastasy competitors in Inner League Baseball -- said today applies to what happened next in July-August-September for Oakland. Frank was talking about his own fantasy teams and how he "got greedy" at our trade deadline and went for the kill instead of sticking with a winning lineup.

That's what happened with A's general manager Billy Beane in July. Instead of sticking with a winning formula that got Oakland into the playoffs in 2012 and '13 (but again not to the World Series), Beane got greedy and went for the kill.

He understood that his starting rotation was fragile. So Beane traded for three established starters -- Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel and Jon Lester.

Beane got greedy, and in so doing, hurt the chemistry of a team built with smoke, mirrors and chicken wire.

NEWS FLASH! Just sent this text to my daughter Diana at PNC Park: "When I saw the starting lineup I was thinking, 'Crawford could be a dangerous No. 7 batter.'" The Pirates will have to figure a way to get into the Giants' bullpen.

Back to Beane and the A's. In hindsight, it wasn't good to bring in a bunch of high-paid mercenaries to be the saviors for a team that was doing perfectly well with a bunch of guys whose salaries -- relatively speaking -- were the equivalent of guys being paid with lunch money and coins out of the couch cushions.

I spent some time with the A's in the visitors' clubhouse in Arlington this weekend -- waiting up with them until after midnight Saturday night in hopes that the Mariners would lose, and wading through puddles of champagne and beer Sunday afternoon when Oakland celebrated a win to take the AL's No. 2 wild card.

The old spirit of that clubhouse seemed to be there.

But then came Monday night, and the A's lost that wild card game in Kansas City. Jon Lester started for Oakland, but the bullpen blew a four-run lead. The winning hit came off Jason Hammel.

The game was the A's season in microcosm. And this time, the Athletics were the hares.

Pavano outpitches Lester

The starting pitchers were RHP Carl Pavano and LHP Jon Lester, so the 5-0 final score was no surprise. It was surprising, however, that Pavano’s Twins were the winners over Lester’s Red Sox.
Updating Thursday’s Email, Rays 2B Sean Rodriguez hit his third home run in three games in a 12-7 victory over the Yankees. This one was against New York RHP Phil Hughes. Even so, we’re still not convinced that Rodriguez is the man for an everyday role in Tampa Bay’s lineup. Keep a watch on the competition between him and RF Matt Joyce, one of whom will be a starter with Ben Zobrist playing either second or right field.
The Astros’ offensive output fell from 21 hits Thursday to 14. And those weren’t nearly enough in a 17-7 loss to the Tigers, who pounded the ball for 16 hits.
The Blue Jays treated Phillies LHP Cole Hamels rudely, scoring three runs in three innings against him. Toronto won 14-9, with 3B/OF Jose Bautista hitting a home run. He could be a sleeper candidate. The statistics to look for with him are walks and on-base percentage. Bautista has some power but needs to improve his selectivity at the plate.
Sample Scouting Report:
Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays
Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 195 B: R Age: 29* Alt. Pos.: 3B
{2010} Those who put stock in second-half statistics no doubt have Bautista on their list for 2010. Ten of his home runs last season came after August. Those who downgrade performances in September against a lot of minor league pitchers won’t care about him. There is good reason to keep him in mind as a fifth outfielder/corner infielder/DH. Bautista won’t help your average, but he has shown that the more he plays, the more patient he is, allowing him to draw walks. Those lead to more runs and greater value in 5X5 leagues. He also crushes left-handed pitching (.293 last season), giving him a greater opportunity to play at least a platoon role with a young Toronto outfielder such as Travis Snider. Bautista’s eligibility at third base also gives him greater relative value at that position. 2009: .235 BA, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 4 SB, 54 R. Born Oct. 19, 1980, Dominican Republic*.
Projection
AB: 376 HR: 13 RBI: 43 SB: 3 R: 54 Value: $4

Hot and Not: Lester still on a roll

This is an unusual week because other than the players who take a few swings in the All-Star game and its Home Run Derby, any players who finished last week Hot -- or Not -- will be off for three or four days. That very well could be enough to cool off the hot bats and possibly let the tired cold ones rest their bats or arms. So this list might be an even worse predictor than usual for what might happen this week.

Hot

Pos. Name, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers 12-23 .522 1-6 0
OF Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals 13-27 .481 4-15 0
2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 12-26 .462 1-4 0
OF Manny Ramirez*, Dodgers 10-22 .455 2-8 0
OF/2B Ben Zobrist, Rays 10-22 .455 1-6 3
1B Nick Johnson, Nationals 11-25 .440 1-3 0
OF Jermaine Dye, White Sox 10-23 .435 0-4 0
OF Carlos Lee, Astros 13-30 .433 1-2 0
2B Chase Utley, Phillies .426 2-6 1
1B/3B Hank Blalock, Rangers 11-26 .423 2-4 0
OF Gerardo Parra, D-backs 11-26 .423 0-5 0
SS Ryan Theriot, Cubs 11-26 .423 0-1 0

Home runs – Ludwick and Phillies OF Jayson Werth 4; Yankees OF/1B Eric Hinske, Pirates OF Garrett Jones, White Sox 1B Paul Konerko, Reds 2B Brandon Phillips, Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez*, Giants 3B/1B/C Pablo Sandoval, Tigers OF/1B Marcus Thames, Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki and Marlins OF Josh Willingham 3.

RBI – Ludwick 15' Sandoval and Werth 11; Konerko 10; Ramirez*, Thames, Orioles OF Luke Scott and Mariners OF Franklin Gutierrez 8. Gutierrez was on the batting average Hot list a week earlier.

Stolen bases – OF Michael Bourn, Rockies OF Dexter Fowler and Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins 5; Nationals Of Nyjer Morgan 4; Jones, Zobrist, Athletics SS Orlando Cabrera, Angels 3B Chone Figgins and Twins OF Denard Span 3.

Runs – Bourn 10; Yankees 2B Robinson Cano 9; Rollins and Phillies OF Shane Victorino 8; Figgins, Ramirez*, Rodriguez*, Zobrist, Astros OF Lance Berkman, Padres 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, Braves OF Nate McLouth, Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols and Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

LHP Brett Anderson, Athletics 13.0 0.00 1-0 0.62 12:3
LHP Jonathan Sanchez, Giants 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.00 11:0
RHP bronson Arroyo, Reds 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.44 5:0
RHP Chris Volstad, Marlins 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.56 6:0
RHP Dan Haren, D-backs 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.56 10:1
LHP Wandy Rodriguez, Astros 9.0 0.00 1-0 0.67 11:1
RHP Jeff Niemann, Rays 9.0 0.00 1-0 1.00 6:3
LHP Jon Lester, Red Sox 8.0 0.00 1-0 0.75 8:2
LHP Manny Parra, Brewers 7.0 0.00 0-0 0.57 7:1
LHP Johan Santana, Twins 7.0 0.00 1-0 0.86 5:1

Lester is on this list of the majors’ best in ERA for the second consecutive week. Arroyo has bounced back after being on the Not list the previous week.

Wins – Red Sox RHP Josh Beckett, Orioles LHP Mark Hendrickson, Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw, Tigers RHP Justin Verlander, Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright, Mariners LHP Jarrod Washburn and Angels RHP Jered Weaver 2.

Saves – braves RHP Rafael Soriano 4-for-4; Red Sox RHP Jonathan Papelbon and Rockies RHP Huston Street 3-for-3.

WHIP – Sanchez 0.00; cardinals RHP Joel Pineiro 0.33; Arroyo and Washburn 0.44; Haren and Volstad 0.56.

Strikeout/walk ratio (10 Ks, at least a 2.5:1 ratio) – Sanchez 11:0; Beckett and Rodriguez 11:1; Haren 10:1; Verlander 19-3; Phillies LHP J.A. Happ 11:2; Anderson 12:3; Marlins RHP Josh Johson 12:3; Tigers RHP Armando Galarraga 10:3; Wainwright 14:5; Mariners LHP Erik Bedard and Cubs RHP Carlos Zambrano 13:5. Haren led this list the previous week.

* * *

Not

Pos. Player, Team H-AB Avg. HR-RBI SB

SS Elvis Andrus, Rangers 2-20 .100 0-2 0
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Padres 3-27 .111 0-1 0
OF Ryan Braun, Brewers 3-25 .120 0-0 0
3B Mark Reynolds, D-backs 3-24 .125 0-1 2
SS Cristian Guzman, Nationals 3-23 .130 0-3 0
OF Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs 3-23 .130 1-2 0
1B/3B Russell Branyan, Mariners 3-23 .130 2-4 0
OF Nate Schierholtz, Giants 3-22 .136 0-2 0
1B Justin Morneau, Twins 3-21 .143 0-1 0
OF/2B Chris Coghlan, Marlins 3-21 .143 0-2 0

This week's hitless wonders are Twins SS/2B Nick Punto 0-for-15, Reds OF Jay Bruce 0-for-13 and Orioles SS Robert Andino 0-for-10.

Walk/strikeout ratio (10 or more strikeouts) – Royals C Miguel Olivo 0:10; Royals 3B/1B/OF Mark Teahen 1:12; Padres C Eliezer Alfonzo 1:11; D-backs OF Justin Upton 1:10; Rays OF B.J. Upton 2:10; Nationals OF/1B Adam Dunn 4:10; D-backs 3B Mark Reynolds 6:12.

Caught stealing – Royals OF David DeJesus 1-for-4; Yankees OF Brett Gardner 1-for-3; Rockies OF Dexter Fowler 5-for-7.

The pitchers on the next list each made two starts, doubly damaging their real and fantasy teams.

Throws Pitcher, Team IP ERA W-L WHIP SO/BB

RHP Johnny Cueto, Reds 5.2 20.64 0-2 3.35 5:5
LHP Bruce Chen, Royals 7.2 11.74 0-2 2.35 5:9
RHP Virgil Vasquez, Pirates 7.1 11.05 0-2 2.32 3:6
RHP Kevin Millwood, Rangers 11.0 10.64 0-2 1.82 5:5
LHP Andy Pettitte, Yankees 10.1 10.45 0-2 1.84 4:7
RHP Scott Baker, Twins 9.1 9.64 1-1 1.93 8:3
LHP Mark Buehrle, White Sox 10.1 9.58 1-1 1.84 4:2
RHP Jason Hammel, Rockies 8.2 9.35 0-0 2.42 5:2
LHP Shane West, Marlins 10.2 8.44 0-2 1.94 3:7
RHP Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 10.0 8.10 0-2 2.10 9:3

Losses – Chen, Gallardo, Millwood, Pettitte, Vasquez, West, Rockies RHP Aaron Cook and Brewers RHP Carlos Villanueva 2.

Blown saves – Braves RHP Peter Moylan 0-for-2, for the second consecutive week.