Could Donaldson, Belt help your hunt for homers?

In Saturday's post, I mentioned power only in passing.
There come times in a season when you're looking for power. This could be one, especially for owners with Orioles 1B Chris Davis on the roster.
In the first place, Davis hasn't been hitting with power. In the second, he might not even play for the next two weeks if he goes on the disabled list.
The easy choices are the current major league leaders, Angels 1B Albert Pujols and White Sox 1B Jose Abreu. They each have nine homers in less than four weeks. What's that you say? Pujols was a keeper in your league and other owners jumped on Abreu as the new kid on the power block?
OK, let's look a bit further down the home run list.
With eight homers, there's Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez. That's a pace for more than 50 this season. But should you be concerned because that's about twice the number he has hit in most seasons? Yes. I'm not even talking about steroids in this article, but you know which players to whisper about amongst yourselves.
The 7-HR group has some of the players you'd expect -- Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista, Marlins OF Mike Stanton and Diamondbacks OF Mark Trumbo, who's now injured. I've already touched on Twins SS Brian Dozier. There are up-and-comers such as Giants 1B Brandon Belt and Athletics 3B Josh Donaldson. I'm not sure about Belt as a consistent power source, but I could see power potential in Donaldson, even though he's not very big, back when he was a minor league catcher. Braves OF Justin Upton also has seven homers in what appears to be a bounce-back season.
Those with six homers also include some you'd expect -- Brewers OF Ryan Braun, who has been hitting his homers in bunches; Orioles OF Nelson Cruz; Braves 1B Freddie Freeman and C/OF Evan Gattis; Giants OF Mike Morse; Angels OF Mike Trout, and Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez. Like last season, when he finished strong to tie for the National League lead, Alvarez has started slowly, with a batting average still on the interstate. He probably could use more protection in a lineup that hasn't been working. However, Pittsburgh 2B Neil Walker also has six homers, a pace he seems highly unlikely to keep up. He's also less effective against right-handed pitchers, the kind that Alvarez terrorizes. He's sometimes platoon-replaced against lefties.
Missing from that list is Tigers 1B/3B Miguel Cabrera, who reached five homers with a hot Week 4. He's a perfect example of why I don't like to make yes-or-no decisions about players until after Week 5.
Saturday was a difficult day for a number of players. Nationals OF Bryce Harper went on the disabled list Sunday. Davis seemed likely to join him on the DL. Braun left Saturday's game because of a strained intercostal muscle and his teammate, SS Jean Segura, left Milwaukee's lineup after being hit in the face by a Braun practice swing.
More coming over the next few days about other fantasy categories -- most importantly stolen bases and saves. I also expect some shorter posts with observations about players I see in person. Those could be similar to Saturday's comments about Rangers LHP Martin Perez.

A-Rod did not get a raw deal

Today's big player move in baseball was that the Orioles signed OF Delmon Young to a minor league contract.
Beyond that, there were reports that OF Jack Cust and RHP Bobby Jenks are interested in making comebacks after being out of baseball. Really? I guess the money if whatever field they're working in isn't as good as a major league salary.
You might also have heard some things about sometime Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez.
The latest is that he wants to sue Major League Baseball and the MLBPA in federal court over his suspension.
I expect that will go essentially nowhere. An arbitrator ruled that Rodriguez broke baseball's PED rules, based largely on Anthony Bosch's testimony and text messages between them. The arbitrator said there was sufficient evidence indicating that A-Rod used banned substances on at least three occasions and that he tried to block MLB's investigation (think obstruction of justice) at least twice.
So where's the smoking gun? Or maybe the dripping syringe?
There doesn't have to be one. How often is there a smoking gun even in a murder case.
Baseball doesn't necessarily have to follow all of the rules that would apply in a court of law. The idea is that people have rights, but there is no "right to play major league baseball." There has been a long history of instances where players have been suspended or banned with less evidence than would convict them in court. Baseball banned eight Chicago White Sox for at least knowing but not reporting attempts to fix the 1919 World Series. More recently, Pete Rose received a lifetime ban for betting on baseball, possibly including his own team, when he managed the Reds.
In my mind, baseball has allowed the dispute over Rodriguez's suspension to last far too long. I'm not sure how the figure of 211 games was decided for his original suspension. Perhaps the idea was to keep him from playing in 2013 or '14. For some reason, he was allowed to postpone his hearing until the off-season. Those hearings usually are held and adjudicated within a matter of days or weeks.
He was allowed to play while the other players brought down in the scandal involving Bosch's PED lab sat out suspensions. And his suspension was reduced to 162 games.
There probably wasn't enough hard evidence to give A-Rod a three-strikes-and-you're-out lifetime ban. Still, he seems to be getting off easy. However, he seems to have the sense of entitlement that says the rules aren't meant to include him.
It seems likely that fans will not be very forgiving. They/we don't like the idea that star players can get off on a technicality, as Ryan Braun did the first time, or that they should be allowed to buy their way out of suspensions.
A side note, or perhaps a historical note: It seems clear that Rodriguez lied through his teeth (as so many other accused players have done) a few years back when he said that he had used PEDs only while he played for the Rangers and only before baseball banned such substances. His most recent run-in lends credence to Selena Roberts' reporting in Sports Illustrated and a note of embarrassment for Peter Gammons' softball interview with A-Rod that let him slide for a while.
* * *
Basketball. My 7-1 win for last week moved me into third place, just two games behind the league leader. My signing of Marco Belinelli to give me an extra guard Sunday didn't hurt my team, but it wasn't enough to complete a sweep by also winning in 3-pointers.
My original intention was that Belinelli would be a short-term acquisition, and that I would bring Taj Gibson back on to my roster. Then I did some homework.
The question was whether I should bring Gibson back for help up front and waive Belinelli, or possibly another newly acquired guard, Mo Williams.
First I compared their raw numbers to see which two of them had the best overall statistics. Gibson led, as we'd expect, in rebounds and blocks, and also in scoring. Williams had the highest free throw percentage and led, not unexpectedly, in assists and steals. Belinelli was best in just two categories, field goal percentage and 3-pointers.
However, when I assigned 3, 2 and 1 points in each category, with 3 being the highest, the totals were Gibson 15, Williams 16 and Belinelli 17.
The second step was determining in which categories my team needed the most help. Through Sunday, I was below average in four categories -- sixth in assists, seventh in points, tied for seventh in 3-pointers and ninth in field goal percentage. Look above and you'll see that Belinelli has had the best season in the team's worst categories, FG% and 3s. Williams leads the three-man group in assists.
Third, because it's my first year in a fantasy basketball league, I tried to determine how successful teams are set up. Are they oriented toward big men, or more toward speed and other small-man skills. My short, small-sample-sized, research showed that the team currently in first place had a 13-man roster including seven players each who qualify as guards or forwards, and three qualifying at center. My current roster, without power forward Gibson, has six guards, six forwards and a center.
The first-place team outnumbers mine at shooting guard and small forward. My roster has more power forwards than his does.
By any measure, it seems, my best move would be to keep Belinelli and Williams on the roster and leave Gibson in the free-agent pool.
* * *
Football. At last night's Islanders-Stars game, I tried to keep up with the playoff scoring through ESPN.com. I'd check the box score on occasion, and write down updated point totals for each player. I left the hockey game thinking I'd won 29-26 to reach the AMFL Super Bowl. I noted that Colin Kaepernick had thrown a touchdown pass and put down 3 points next to his name. pass. I wasn't looking at the touchdown runs because neither of us had Frank Gore. I was surprised when the commissioner wrote today that I'd lost 32-29. Then I saw Kaepernick's TD run. Oh, well.
Things are going better in the bet-a-thousand pool. I had three wins and a push -- at least the Saints didn't score again to beat the spread -- so my bankroll is up to $1,600. That might not help much. The current leader is at $3,700. I pretty much have to win the final three games, and make big bets on the right teams. Off the top of my head, I'll probably bet $1,000 on one team and $500 on the other. Maybe 8 on one and 7 on the other if I don't have a real favorite, so a split wouldn't kill me. Another possibility is going $1,400 and $100 if there's a team I reeeaallly like. I noticed that almost all of the teams currently leading had the 49ers, and they all put significantly more than my piddly $100 on San Francisco.
* * *
Hockey. Last night I got to see the Islanders' Thomas Vanek in person, probably for the first time since 2005 but probably not going back as far as when he played for the University of Minnesota in the Frozen Four. He had two assists, and even better was plus-3. My team's plus/minus has been taking off lately. I'm up to plus-40 and just four behind the next team ahead of me. The leader is at 100 and something, so that's probably out of reach. I entered Monday still third with 66, and eight points out of second place. Again, first place seems ridiculously out of reach.
BTW, Vanek leads the Islanders in plus/minus (+8, I think), and he was well below zero when he arrived on the island after the Sabres traded him.

Matsuzaka to take Wakefield's spot

We’re getting back toward our five-Emails-per-week regular-season schedule, which would send you News and Notes each Thursday.
The free period for these Emails is scheduled to end Sunday, April 25. After that, the Emails would go only to those who subscribe.
The good news is that you now CAN subscribe. See below to find out how.
Subscriptions will include Articles such as our “Pitchers (and Hitters) to Keep and Avoid.” Last year, our recommendation of Rockies LHP Jorge De La Rosa in itself was worth the cost of what you’d pay, and he was only one of our picks that were on the money. Choosing him was inspired; he was 0-6 when we recommended him, and 16-3 thereafter.
You also would have access to whatever content we’re able to get on to the fantasybaseballscout.com web site.
Subscribers will be able to ask questions specific to their fantasy teams and leagues, and receive answers through these Emails, the web site or personal Emails.

Pirates fall 20 short of 20-20
The Red Sox will bring RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka back from his injury-rehab assignment. He will replace RHP Tim Wakefield in their rotation. That might be a greater indictment of Boston’s catchers, who are having great difficulty throwing out base stealers, than of Wakefield. The Sox might not be able to afford having his slow pitching motion and slow pitches giving opposing runners even greater chances to steal.
OOO The Brewers became the first team in major league history to win a game 20-0 to complete a three-game sweep in Pittsburgh during which they outscored the Pirates 36-1. LF Ryan Braun hit his fifth homer, and 1B Prince Fielder finally hit his first. OF Jim Edmonds and C George Kottaras also connected for the first time this season.
OOO Filling in for injured SS Jimmy Rollins, Phillies SS/2B Juan Castro went 3-for-5 with two runs and an RBI in an 8-3 victory over the Braves.
OOO Mets rookie 1B Ike Davis had three hits and scored two runs.
OOO On the flip side, Angels 3B Brandon Wood’s average slipped to .087.
OOO White Sox RHP Jake Peavy allowed seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings, causing his ERA to expand to 7.66.
OOO The Rays and OF/2B Ben Zobrist agreed on a contract extension through 2013, with team options for ’14 and ’15.
OOO In an episode reminiscent of how the Rays established themselves as a presence two years ago against the Yankees, Athletics LHP Dallas Braden engaged in a war of words with New York 3B Alex Rodriguez. Braden took offense when A-Rod ran across the mound after a foul ball. Rodriguez said, “He just told me to get off his mound. I’d never heard of that, especially from a guy that has a handful of wins in his career.” Braden said he hopes the Yankees realize “We’re not the doormat anymore.” A collision at home plate in a 2008 exhibition game that injured Yankees C Francisco Cervelli was Tampa Bay’s way of letting New York know the Rays had arrived.

Minor matters
3B Mike Moustakas, the Royals’ first-round draft pick in 2007, made his first Double-A appearance at Northwest Arkansas, and hit two home runs. Another prospect for the Naturals, OF Tim Smith, went on the disabled list because of a quadriceps injury.
The pitching-prospect twins, Reds LHP prospect Aroldis Chapman and Nationals RHP prospect Stephen Strasburg, again pitched on the same day. Chapman had control problems, with half a dozen walks and a pitching line of 5 1/3 31068 for Triple-A Louisville. Strasburg has a 2-0 record and 0.73 ERA for Double-A Harrisburg following a line of 510017, and should be ready to move up to Triple-A Syracuse.
Indians C prospect Carlos Santana left Wednesday’s game after fouling a pitch off his right knee, and is considered day to day.
When 1BJustin Smoak left Triple-A Oklahoma City’s game, speculation was that he had hurt himself by fouling a ball off his foot. After the game, though, the Rangers said they would recall Smoak and option struggling 1B Chris Davis to the Redhawks.

Injuries
Tigers OF/3B Carlos Guillen could go on the disabled list because of a hamstring injury.
OOO LF Manny Ramirez left the Dodgers’ game at Cincinnati in the sixth inning because of a strained right calf muscle. He expected to miss at least two games. RHP Jeff Weaver (back injury) has gone on the disabled list.
OOO The Red Sox learned that LF Jacoby Ellsbury’s injury is four fractured left ribs. He’s eligible to come off the DL Tuesday, and Ellsbury still is optimistic that that could happen.
OOO Nationals 3B Ryan Zimmerman is doubtful for this weekend’d games because of a hamstring injury.
OOO Rangers C Salty, rehabbing a left shoulder injury at Oklahoma City, made a throwing error on a stolen base. That could indicate that his throwing still isn’t good enough to have him playing in the majors.
OOO The Athletics fear that OF Travis Buck could be out until mid-May because of an oblique injury.

In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer.
Rockies LHP Franklin Morales’ third save came in a 2-0 victory at Washington, where bigger news was that RHP Ubaldo Jimenez improved to 4-0 with an 0.95 ERA by pitching another 7 1/3 scoreless innings on the heels of his no-hitter.
LHP Darren Oliver picked up his first save – since 1994! – as the Rangers won in Boston 3-0. Texas’ closer, Neftali Feliz, wasn’t able to pitch, and RHPs Frank Francisco and Dustin Nippert had lost games the previous two nights, so Oliver apparently was the best option.
Mets RHP Francisco Rodriguez finally received his first save, an easy one in a 5-2 win over the Cubs.
Other saves went to Reds RHP Francisco Corderon, sixth, 8-5 over the Dodgers; Tigers RHP Jose Valverde, fifth, 5-4 at LA/Anaheim, and Athletics RHP Andrew Bailey, second, 4-2 against the Yankees.

Promotion

To subscribe for our five-times-weekly Emails and anything else we're able to provide this season, Email us at lary@fantasybaseballscout.com. Through Sunday, May 2, you can subscribe for just $20, a 20 per cent savings from our established price of $25.
Include your name, address, phone number and the Email address where you would like to receive the Emails. PayPal then would send you an invoice that would allow you to pay in one step.
If you already have expressed interest in subscribing, you should receive an Email asking you to pay for a subscription. If not, please be sure to follow the process above.