In Saturday's post, I mentioned power only in passing.
There come times in a season when you're looking for power. This could be one, especially for owners with Orioles 1B Chris Davis on the roster.
In the first place, Davis hasn't been hitting with power. In the second, he might not even play for the next two weeks if he goes on the disabled list.
The easy choices are the current major league leaders, Angels 1B Albert Pujols and White Sox 1B Jose Abreu. They each have nine homers in less than four weeks. What's that you say? Pujols was a keeper in your league and other owners jumped on Abreu as the new kid on the power block?
OK, let's look a bit further down the home run list.
With eight homers, there's Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez. That's a pace for more than 50 this season. But should you be concerned because that's about twice the number he has hit in most seasons? Yes. I'm not even talking about steroids in this article, but you know which players to whisper about amongst yourselves.
The 7-HR group has some of the players you'd expect -- Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista, Marlins OF Mike Stanton and Diamondbacks OF Mark Trumbo, who's now injured. I've already touched on Twins SS Brian Dozier. There are up-and-comers such as Giants 1B Brandon Belt and Athletics 3B Josh Donaldson. I'm not sure about Belt as a consistent power source, but I could see power potential in Donaldson, even though he's not very big, back when he was a minor league catcher. Braves OF Justin Upton also has seven homers in what appears to be a bounce-back season.
Those with six homers also include some you'd expect -- Brewers OF Ryan Braun, who has been hitting his homers in bunches; Orioles OF Nelson Cruz; Braves 1B Freddie Freeman and C/OF Evan Gattis; Giants OF Mike Morse; Angels OF Mike Trout, and Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez. Like last season, when he finished strong to tie for the National League lead, Alvarez has started slowly, with a batting average still on the interstate. He probably could use more protection in a lineup that hasn't been working. However, Pittsburgh 2B Neil Walker also has six homers, a pace he seems highly unlikely to keep up. He's also less effective against right-handed pitchers, the kind that Alvarez terrorizes. He's sometimes platoon-replaced against lefties.
Missing from that list is Tigers 1B/3B Miguel Cabrera, who reached five homers with a hot Week 4. He's a perfect example of why I don't like to make yes-or-no decisions about players until after Week 5.
Saturday was a difficult day for a number of players. Nationals OF Bryce Harper went on the disabled list Sunday. Davis seemed likely to join him on the DL. Braun left Saturday's game because of a strained intercostal muscle and his teammate, SS Jean Segura, left Milwaukee's lineup after being hit in the face by a Braun practice swing.
More coming over the next few days about other fantasy categories -- most importantly stolen bases and saves. I also expect some shorter posts with observations about players I see in person. Those could be similar to Saturday's comments about Rangers LHP Martin Perez.
Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts
Sunday, April 27, 2014
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Pitchers and catchers -- in camp1
The day we've been waiting for since early last November: The first pitchers and catchers reported to spring training today.
More than a third (11) of the teams welcomed their batterymen to camps in Florida and (increasingly) Arizona.
Those same pitchers and catchers for the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Angels, Padres and Mariners in Arizona and the Orioles, Tigers, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals and Blue Jays in the Sunshine State will hold the first official workouts of the spring Monday.
More than half of the pitchers and catchers will be in camp Monday and working out Tuesday, because six teams will be greetigg their poorest hitters Monday.
The only new training site is at Talking Stick in North Scottsdale, Ariz., where the D-backs and Rockies are moving from Tucson. The Orioles are changing locales, moving from Fort Lauderdale to Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, which the Reds abandoned a year ago to move to Goodyear, Ariz. There now are more teams training in the desert than among the beaches, swamps and strawberry fields of Florida.
USA Today reported that Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols rejected the team's offer for a contract extension. His agent, Danny Lozano, had said that his client wouldn't negotiate on the extension after he reports to spring training, which (according to USA Today) will be Tuesday, a day early. Pujols' contract will expire after this season, for which he's receiving $16 million.
There have been some minor free agent signings during this week, which I spent mostly in San Antonio and mostly with a migraine while I was there.
Yankees: 3B/1B Eric Chavez and RHP Luis Ayala
Mariners: RHP Manny Delcarmen
Red Sox: RHP Alfredo Aceves, LHP Dennys Reyes
Rockies: RHP Claudio Vargas
Ayala and an aging minor league invitee, 1B Jorge Vazquez, will be at New York's training site in Tampa after performing well in winter ball.
Speaking of winter ball, even though it's summer ball there, the Australian Baseball League playoffs concluded today. The Perth Heat, who played the entire best-of-three series at home, lost the first game but came back to win the final two games.
In Game 3, the Heat defeated the Adelaide Bite 7-1. RHP Benjamin Moore painted the corners and shut out Adelaide until 3B Stefan Welch (Mets organization) hit a ninth-inning solo homer. Moore's pitching line was 94110 10. For Perth, LF Robert Widlansky hit a two-run homer in a four-run eighth inning. A "crowd" of 1,876 saw that game, played without a full complement of network TV commercials in 2:22.
Speaking of TV, you can sign up to see as many as 150 exhibition games and 2,400 regular-season games on mlb.tv.
You can sign up here. I don't give you that link because I get a kickback, but because I enjoy the product.
More than a third (11) of the teams welcomed their batterymen to camps in Florida and (increasingly) Arizona.
Those same pitchers and catchers for the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Angels, Padres and Mariners in Arizona and the Orioles, Tigers, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals and Blue Jays in the Sunshine State will hold the first official workouts of the spring Monday.
More than half of the pitchers and catchers will be in camp Monday and working out Tuesday, because six teams will be greetigg their poorest hitters Monday.
The only new training site is at Talking Stick in North Scottsdale, Ariz., where the D-backs and Rockies are moving from Tucson. The Orioles are changing locales, moving from Fort Lauderdale to Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, which the Reds abandoned a year ago to move to Goodyear, Ariz. There now are more teams training in the desert than among the beaches, swamps and strawberry fields of Florida.
USA Today reported that Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols rejected the team's offer for a contract extension. His agent, Danny Lozano, had said that his client wouldn't negotiate on the extension after he reports to spring training, which (according to USA Today) will be Tuesday, a day early. Pujols' contract will expire after this season, for which he's receiving $16 million.
There have been some minor free agent signings during this week, which I spent mostly in San Antonio and mostly with a migraine while I was there.
Yankees: 3B/1B Eric Chavez and RHP Luis Ayala
Mariners: RHP Manny Delcarmen
Red Sox: RHP Alfredo Aceves, LHP Dennys Reyes
Rockies: RHP Claudio Vargas
Ayala and an aging minor league invitee, 1B Jorge Vazquez, will be at New York's training site in Tampa after performing well in winter ball.
Speaking of winter ball, even though it's summer ball there, the Australian Baseball League playoffs concluded today. The Perth Heat, who played the entire best-of-three series at home, lost the first game but came back to win the final two games.
In Game 3, the Heat defeated the Adelaide Bite 7-1. RHP Benjamin Moore painted the corners and shut out Adelaide until 3B Stefan Welch (Mets organization) hit a ninth-inning solo homer. Moore's pitching line was 94110 10. For Perth, LF Robert Widlansky hit a two-run homer in a four-run eighth inning. A "crowd" of 1,876 saw that game, played without a full complement of network TV commercials in 2:22.
Speaking of TV, you can sign up to see as many as 150 exhibition games and 2,400 regular-season games on mlb.tv.
You can sign up here. I don't give you that link because I get a kickback, but because I enjoy the product.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Baker sizzles on a rainy day
Of the 18 games scheduled, just half were played to a nine-inning conclusion. Five games in Florida were rained out, the Astros’ 10-7 victory over the Red Sox was called after 7 ½ innings because of rain and three games in Arizona ended in ties.
Houston beat up on Boston RHP Jonathan Papelbon. He said he lacked energy after taking medication for a migraine, and that could have contributed to a line of 1/3 56510 (plus plunking a guy) that increased his ERA to 7.11.
Also in Florida, Twins RHP Scott Baker sparkled with a line of 510013 in a 12-3 victory over the Rays. Minnesota mauled Tampa Bay RHP Wade Davis, whose line was 297511. OF Matt Joyce hit his first homer against struggling Twins RHP Clay Condrey, and raised Joyce’s average to .375. LHP Jesse English, claimed on waivers from the Giants last September, picked up his second save in the Nationals’ 9-7 win over the Marlins. English entered the game with one out and a runner on base in the ninth, and pitched out of trouble. He hasn’t yet pitched above Double-A during the regular season.
Some teams made contingency plans to keep their pitchers on schedule despite being postponed. Tigers RHP Justin Verlander threw after busing back to Lakeland, Fla., from their rainout against the Yankees. New York added an intrasquad game Monday morning, with today’s scheduled pitchers, LHP Andy Pettitte and RHP Joba Chamberlain, opposing each other. RHPs A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes would pitch in the scheduled game. The Braves and Cardinals started their game, but without Atlanta’s scheduled starter, RHP Jair Jurrjens. The Braves held him back to pitch in a minor league game Monday. In his place, RHP Peter Moylan pitched in the game that didn’t make it through two innings. He excited Atlanta’s management by striking out St. Louis OF Colby Rasmus and 1B Albert Pujols.
In Arizona, Reds OF Jonny Gomes clubbed his fourth homer in a 4-3 victory over the Athletics.
The Indians routed the Dodgers 12-5, with OF Austin Kearns hitting his first two homers, against LA LHPs Eric Stults and rookie Aaron Miller. Dodgers OF Garret Anderson had three hits, including a triple that resulted when CF Grady Sizemore missed a diving catch and LF Jose Constanza fell down on the warning track.
On my TV were the Rangers, who scored five runs in the third inning, and the Padres who overcame the five-run deficit with six in the fourth and eight in the eighth to win 14-5. Texas RHP Rich Harden couldn’t get out of that fourth inning. He walked three consecutive batters, and gave up a three-run homer to San Diego SS/OF Jerry Hairston. Harden’s ERA rose to 11.25. Three errors contributed to the Padres’ big eighth inning. Having a big day was San Diego SS prospect Lance Zawadzki – who went 2-for-3, scored two runs and raised his average to .412. Rangers C Jarrod Saltalamacchia couldn’t play because of a stiff neck, which is expected to keep him out 7-10 days.
Giants RHP Kevin Pucetas struggled to an 8.04 ERA in four starts last spring, but reduced this year’s mark to 0.64 in three starts with a line of 531120 in a 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks. On the other hand, Arizona RHP Edwin Jackson continued to struggle this spring. His line of 4 2/3 54440 include a home run by OF John Bowker.
Two of the tie games went 10 innings. OF Laynce Nix’s homer was the Reds’ only run in their 1-1 tie with the Cubs. LF Ryan Braun hit his third homer for the Brewers as they deadlocked the White Sox 4-4. The Rockies and Royals just quit playing after nine innings of their 11-11 tie.
The Mets picked up a Big 10 victory, 8-1 over the University of Michigan. RHP Nelson Figueroa was the winning pitcher, and OF/1B Chris Carter went 3-for-3 for New York.
The Twins pleased their fans by extending the contract of C Joe Mauer, a hometown favorite, for eight years through 2018, paying $184 million and including a full no-trade clause.
The Cardinals optioned struggling RHP Josh Kinney to Triple-A Memphis, creating an opening for RHPs Adam Ottavino or Fernando Salas to earn a spot in their bullpen. Other possibilities are the losers of the battle for the fifth starter’s role among RHP Kyle McClellan and LHPs Rich Hill and Jaime Garcia.
Inside the injuries:
The Indians’ closer, RHP Kerry Wood, will be out 6-8 weeks because of what the team called a “moderate” strained latissimus muscle behind his shoulder. RHP Chris Perez will get the first shot at Cleveland’s saves until Wood returns.
Red Sox RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka retired seven of eight batters in a minor league intrasquad game. He’s scheduled to make his first exhibition appearance Thursday against the Marlins, but it’s almost certain he will begin the regular season on the disabled list.
Cubs RHP Carlos Silva left their game after two innings because of a tight right quadriceps.
Rays C Dioner Navarro is on crutches because of an injured left shin suffered in a collision at home plate Saturday, but he insisted he would be ready to play by Opening Day. LHP J.P. Howell now is expected to miss a month of the season because of a weak shoulder. That means RHPs Wade Davis and Andy Sonnanstine both could begin the season in Tampa Bay’s rotation.
Indians OF Michael Brantley rolled an ankle and left their game in the fourth inning. That could ensure that he’s optioned to Triple-A Columbus or perhaps begins the season on the DL.
Beginning the road back from Tommy John surgery last August, Reds RHP Edinson Volquez threw 25 pitches off a mound Thursday and 30 more today.
Sample Scouting Report:
RHP Kevin Pucetas, Giants
Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 225 T: R Age: 25 Inj. Risk: 10 Alt. Pos.: SP
{2010} Last season, Pucetas jumped past Double-A to Triple-A Fresno. He started out as if he could duplicate his 10-2 record as the high Class A California League’s Pitcher of the Year for San Jose in 2008, but tired to finish 10-6 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in the Pacific Coast League. Pucetas doesn’t throw hard for a guy his size. He doesn’t strike out batters, but he throws strikes and knows how to win. His career won-lost record in the minors is 42-13. Pucetas has the misfortune of being in an organization with a surplus of pitchers. If he’s traded, consider taking a chance on him. Born: Nov. 27, 1984, Spartanburg, S.C.
Projection
IP: 65 W: 3 ERA: 4.57 WHIP: 1.35 S: 0 SO: 35 Value: $0
Houston beat up on Boston RHP Jonathan Papelbon. He said he lacked energy after taking medication for a migraine, and that could have contributed to a line of 1/3 56510 (plus plunking a guy) that increased his ERA to 7.11.
Also in Florida, Twins RHP Scott Baker sparkled with a line of 510013 in a 12-3 victory over the Rays. Minnesota mauled Tampa Bay RHP Wade Davis, whose line was 297511. OF Matt Joyce hit his first homer against struggling Twins RHP Clay Condrey, and raised Joyce’s average to .375. LHP Jesse English, claimed on waivers from the Giants last September, picked up his second save in the Nationals’ 9-7 win over the Marlins. English entered the game with one out and a runner on base in the ninth, and pitched out of trouble. He hasn’t yet pitched above Double-A during the regular season.
Some teams made contingency plans to keep their pitchers on schedule despite being postponed. Tigers RHP Justin Verlander threw after busing back to Lakeland, Fla., from their rainout against the Yankees. New York added an intrasquad game Monday morning, with today’s scheduled pitchers, LHP Andy Pettitte and RHP Joba Chamberlain, opposing each other. RHPs A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes would pitch in the scheduled game. The Braves and Cardinals started their game, but without Atlanta’s scheduled starter, RHP Jair Jurrjens. The Braves held him back to pitch in a minor league game Monday. In his place, RHP Peter Moylan pitched in the game that didn’t make it through two innings. He excited Atlanta’s management by striking out St. Louis OF Colby Rasmus and 1B Albert Pujols.
In Arizona, Reds OF Jonny Gomes clubbed his fourth homer in a 4-3 victory over the Athletics.
The Indians routed the Dodgers 12-5, with OF Austin Kearns hitting his first two homers, against LA LHPs Eric Stults and rookie Aaron Miller. Dodgers OF Garret Anderson had three hits, including a triple that resulted when CF Grady Sizemore missed a diving catch and LF Jose Constanza fell down on the warning track.
On my TV were the Rangers, who scored five runs in the third inning, and the Padres who overcame the five-run deficit with six in the fourth and eight in the eighth to win 14-5. Texas RHP Rich Harden couldn’t get out of that fourth inning. He walked three consecutive batters, and gave up a three-run homer to San Diego SS/OF Jerry Hairston. Harden’s ERA rose to 11.25. Three errors contributed to the Padres’ big eighth inning. Having a big day was San Diego SS prospect Lance Zawadzki – who went 2-for-3, scored two runs and raised his average to .412. Rangers C Jarrod Saltalamacchia couldn’t play because of a stiff neck, which is expected to keep him out 7-10 days.
Giants RHP Kevin Pucetas struggled to an 8.04 ERA in four starts last spring, but reduced this year’s mark to 0.64 in three starts with a line of 531120 in a 4-3 win over the Diamondbacks. On the other hand, Arizona RHP Edwin Jackson continued to struggle this spring. His line of 4 2/3 54440 include a home run by OF John Bowker.
Two of the tie games went 10 innings. OF Laynce Nix’s homer was the Reds’ only run in their 1-1 tie with the Cubs. LF Ryan Braun hit his third homer for the Brewers as they deadlocked the White Sox 4-4. The Rockies and Royals just quit playing after nine innings of their 11-11 tie.
The Mets picked up a Big 10 victory, 8-1 over the University of Michigan. RHP Nelson Figueroa was the winning pitcher, and OF/1B Chris Carter went 3-for-3 for New York.
The Twins pleased their fans by extending the contract of C Joe Mauer, a hometown favorite, for eight years through 2018, paying $184 million and including a full no-trade clause.
The Cardinals optioned struggling RHP Josh Kinney to Triple-A Memphis, creating an opening for RHPs Adam Ottavino or Fernando Salas to earn a spot in their bullpen. Other possibilities are the losers of the battle for the fifth starter’s role among RHP Kyle McClellan and LHPs Rich Hill and Jaime Garcia.
Inside the injuries:
The Indians’ closer, RHP Kerry Wood, will be out 6-8 weeks because of what the team called a “moderate” strained latissimus muscle behind his shoulder. RHP Chris Perez will get the first shot at Cleveland’s saves until Wood returns.
Red Sox RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka retired seven of eight batters in a minor league intrasquad game. He’s scheduled to make his first exhibition appearance Thursday against the Marlins, but it’s almost certain he will begin the regular season on the disabled list.
Cubs RHP Carlos Silva left their game after two innings because of a tight right quadriceps.
Rays C Dioner Navarro is on crutches because of an injured left shin suffered in a collision at home plate Saturday, but he insisted he would be ready to play by Opening Day. LHP J.P. Howell now is expected to miss a month of the season because of a weak shoulder. That means RHPs Wade Davis and Andy Sonnanstine both could begin the season in Tampa Bay’s rotation.
Indians OF Michael Brantley rolled an ankle and left their game in the fourth inning. That could ensure that he’s optioned to Triple-A Columbus or perhaps begins the season on the DL.
Beginning the road back from Tommy John surgery last August, Reds RHP Edinson Volquez threw 25 pitches off a mound Thursday and 30 more today.
Sample Scouting Report:
RHP Kevin Pucetas, Giants
Ht.: 6-4 Wt.: 225 T: R Age: 25 Inj. Risk: 10 Alt. Pos.: SP
{2010} Last season, Pucetas jumped past Double-A to Triple-A Fresno. He started out as if he could duplicate his 10-2 record as the high Class A California League’s Pitcher of the Year for San Jose in 2008, but tired to finish 10-6 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in the Pacific Coast League. Pucetas doesn’t throw hard for a guy his size. He doesn’t strike out batters, but he throws strikes and knows how to win. His career won-lost record in the minors is 42-13. Pucetas has the misfortune of being in an organization with a surplus of pitchers. If he’s traded, consider taking a chance on him. Born: Nov. 27, 1984, Spartanburg, S.C.
Projection
IP: 65 W: 3 ERA: 4.57 WHIP: 1.35 S: 0 SO: 35 Value: $0
Santana, Buckner, Tazawa take their lumps
The Yankees won 6-2 in a pitching battle between their left-hander C.C. Sabathia and Tigers RHP Rick Porcello. It was a game Sabathia might have needed; his pitching line of 5 1/3 42228 brought his ERA down to 6.43. Porcello’s ERA went up a tick to 0.75. Three of the runs against him were unearned; his line was 344113. New York 3B Alex Rodriguez hit a home run.
The Twins defeated the Mets 7-3 in another good pitching matchup, which didn’t go the way most people would have expected. Minnesota RHP Kevin Slowey had a line of 331122, giving up a homer to New York C Omir Santos. The Twins battered LHP Johan Santana for a line of 3 1/3 95513. Rookie 3B Danny Valencia, who could take the starting job away from Brendan Harris and Nick Punto, homered against Santana.
Four days after leaving 16 runners on base, the Royals stranded 11. They also scored 24 times in a 24-9 rout of the Diamondbacks. Kansas City built an early 21-0 lead – battering Arizona’s starter, RHP Billy Buckner, for a line of 298813. KC OF Brian Anderson was like one of those old Army ads – “We get more done by 9 a.m. than most people do in a day.” He went 5-for-5, hit for the cycle, drove in seven runs and scored three – and left the game in the fifth inning. The winning pitcher, RHP Brian Bannister, kept his concentration to post a line of 420013. The Royals’ scoring onslaught didn’t stop until the D-backs’ pitching stiffened when RHP Abe Woody pitched a scoreless ninth inning.
The Pirates defeated the Red Sox 9-7 with OF/2B Delwyn Young hitting his fifth home run this spring, against Boston RHP Josh Beckett. OF John Raynor, a Rule 5 draft pick, also homered against RHP Junichi Tazawa, who apparently will be battered this spring all the way to Triple-A Pawtucket.
The Orioles held the Phillies to one hit, OF John Mayberry’s eighth-inning single against RHP Dennis Sarfate, to win 2-0. Baltimore’s starter, LHP Brian Matusz, was sensational. His line was 500026. He could be a reasonable third or fourth fantasy starting pitcher.
The Cubs treated White Sox LHP John Danks badly, handing him an 8-4 loss. He allowed homers to 1B Derrek Lee and OF Marlon Byrd as part of a line of 565514.
RHP Stephen Strasburg was the Nationals’ winning pitcher in their 13-5 victory over the Cardinals. He gave up solo homers to 3B/1B Allen Craig and SS Tyler Greene in his line of 442208. RHP Kyle McClellan took a step backward in his quest for a starting role. He was the losing pitcher with a line of 453242.
Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols hit his first homer, against Marlins RHP Anibal Sanchez, but St. Louis lost 7-6 in another split-squad game. That was because Florida lit up Cards RHP Chris Carpenter for a line of 4 10 7705. RHP Scott Strickland earned a save for the Marlins, who might need help closing games.
Teams are beginning to get serious about using closers in their regular-season role. The Giants had RHP Brian Wilson pitch the ninth inning in their 7-6 victory over the Indians. He struck out the side to pick up a save. LHP Tony Sipp, who could save some games for Cleveland, pitched the eighth and was the losing pitcher. A passed ball led to an unearned winning run; Sipp’s line was 111011. Giants OF/2B Eugenio Velez went 3-for-3 at bat and 2-for-3 stealing bases.
Because the Astros’ scheduled starter, RHP Bud Norris, had the flu, RHP Josh Banks made an emergency start and posted a line of 320012. He was the winner in a 2-0 win over the Blue Jays. The save went to RHP Roy Corcoran, who could have some regular-season saves.
An Indians split squad pounded the Rangers 12-2. Cleveland had a good start, with 1B/3B Andy Marte hitting a grand slam against RHP Brandon McCarthy. His line was 455534. OF Shin-soo Choo also homered against RHP Luis Mendoza.
Athletics 1B Daric Barton hit a home run and went 2-for-3 to raise his average to .440, but the Rockies won 10-4.
The Padres assaulted Dodgers RHP James McDonald for a line of 1 1/3 66621 in relief to take a 9-4 victory. C Dusty Ryan’s three-run homer contributed to raising McDonald’s ERA to 20.25.
The day’s tie game was the Tigers 4, Braves 4, in 10 innings.
Major league leaders:
HR – Rays 2B Sean Rodriguez and Pirates OF/2B Delwyn Young, 5
RBI – Rays SS Reid Brignac and Young, 14
BA (30-plus at-bats) – Mets OF Fernando Martinez, .500, and Cubs OF Tyler Colvin, .486 (at the other end is Braves OF Nate McLouth, .032, 1-for-31)
SB – Brewers OF Carlos Gomez, 8
R – Rangers OFs Julio Borbon and Nelson Cruz, Brewers OF Lorenzo Cain and Rodriguez, 11
W – Blue Jays LHP Ricky Romero, 3
ERA (10-plus innings pitched) – Marlins RHP Clay Hensley, 0.00
WHIP – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey, 0.82
S – Seven with 2 – including Giants RH Sergio Gomez and Astros LHP Wesley Wright, who might have some chances to save games in the majors this season
SO – Orioles LHP Brian Matusz, 18
A Derek Jeter Rule?:
Is Bud Selig running the NFL now too? That’s the only reason I could think of that would make the football league propose a ridiculous idea like the “Brett Favre Rule” that would change its overtime procedure in the playoffs. Of course, if that rule is enacted, expect Selig to decide that if the Yankees in Derek Jeter’s final year (or the Brewers in any year) lose the seventh game of the World Series, it would be extended to best-of-nine.
Sample Scouting Report:
Shin-soo Choo, OF, Indians
Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 200 B: L Age: 27*
{2010} Choo began last season with a sore elbow that bothered him with South Korea’s entry in the World Baseball Classic. For the rest of the year, he was a pain to American League pitchers. He batted .275 against left-handers, allowing him to avoid being platooned. Choo strikes out a lot, but he also has walked enough to produce on-base percentages of .397 and .394 during the past two seasons. Batting third in Cleveland’s lineup, he should both drive in and score plenty of runs. Born: July 13, 1982, South Korea*. 2009: 583 AB, .300 BA, 20 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 87 R.
Projection
AB: 556 BA: .302 HR: 21 RBI: 92 SB: 17 R: 93 Value: $17
The Twins defeated the Mets 7-3 in another good pitching matchup, which didn’t go the way most people would have expected. Minnesota RHP Kevin Slowey had a line of 331122, giving up a homer to New York C Omir Santos. The Twins battered LHP Johan Santana for a line of 3 1/3 95513. Rookie 3B Danny Valencia, who could take the starting job away from Brendan Harris and Nick Punto, homered against Santana.
Four days after leaving 16 runners on base, the Royals stranded 11. They also scored 24 times in a 24-9 rout of the Diamondbacks. Kansas City built an early 21-0 lead – battering Arizona’s starter, RHP Billy Buckner, for a line of 298813. KC OF Brian Anderson was like one of those old Army ads – “We get more done by 9 a.m. than most people do in a day.” He went 5-for-5, hit for the cycle, drove in seven runs and scored three – and left the game in the fifth inning. The winning pitcher, RHP Brian Bannister, kept his concentration to post a line of 420013. The Royals’ scoring onslaught didn’t stop until the D-backs’ pitching stiffened when RHP Abe Woody pitched a scoreless ninth inning.
The Pirates defeated the Red Sox 9-7 with OF/2B Delwyn Young hitting his fifth home run this spring, against Boston RHP Josh Beckett. OF John Raynor, a Rule 5 draft pick, also homered against RHP Junichi Tazawa, who apparently will be battered this spring all the way to Triple-A Pawtucket.
The Orioles held the Phillies to one hit, OF John Mayberry’s eighth-inning single against RHP Dennis Sarfate, to win 2-0. Baltimore’s starter, LHP Brian Matusz, was sensational. His line was 500026. He could be a reasonable third or fourth fantasy starting pitcher.
The Cubs treated White Sox LHP John Danks badly, handing him an 8-4 loss. He allowed homers to 1B Derrek Lee and OF Marlon Byrd as part of a line of 565514.
RHP Stephen Strasburg was the Nationals’ winning pitcher in their 13-5 victory over the Cardinals. He gave up solo homers to 3B/1B Allen Craig and SS Tyler Greene in his line of 442208. RHP Kyle McClellan took a step backward in his quest for a starting role. He was the losing pitcher with a line of 453242.
Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols hit his first homer, against Marlins RHP Anibal Sanchez, but St. Louis lost 7-6 in another split-squad game. That was because Florida lit up Cards RHP Chris Carpenter for a line of 4 10 7705. RHP Scott Strickland earned a save for the Marlins, who might need help closing games.
Teams are beginning to get serious about using closers in their regular-season role. The Giants had RHP Brian Wilson pitch the ninth inning in their 7-6 victory over the Indians. He struck out the side to pick up a save. LHP Tony Sipp, who could save some games for Cleveland, pitched the eighth and was the losing pitcher. A passed ball led to an unearned winning run; Sipp’s line was 111011. Giants OF/2B Eugenio Velez went 3-for-3 at bat and 2-for-3 stealing bases.
Because the Astros’ scheduled starter, RHP Bud Norris, had the flu, RHP Josh Banks made an emergency start and posted a line of 320012. He was the winner in a 2-0 win over the Blue Jays. The save went to RHP Roy Corcoran, who could have some regular-season saves.
An Indians split squad pounded the Rangers 12-2. Cleveland had a good start, with 1B/3B Andy Marte hitting a grand slam against RHP Brandon McCarthy. His line was 455534. OF Shin-soo Choo also homered against RHP Luis Mendoza.
Athletics 1B Daric Barton hit a home run and went 2-for-3 to raise his average to .440, but the Rockies won 10-4.
The Padres assaulted Dodgers RHP James McDonald for a line of 1 1/3 66621 in relief to take a 9-4 victory. C Dusty Ryan’s three-run homer contributed to raising McDonald’s ERA to 20.25.
The day’s tie game was the Tigers 4, Braves 4, in 10 innings.
Major league leaders:
HR – Rays 2B Sean Rodriguez and Pirates OF/2B Delwyn Young, 5
RBI – Rays SS Reid Brignac and Young, 14
BA (30-plus at-bats) – Mets OF Fernando Martinez, .500, and Cubs OF Tyler Colvin, .486 (at the other end is Braves OF Nate McLouth, .032, 1-for-31)
SB – Brewers OF Carlos Gomez, 8
R – Rangers OFs Julio Borbon and Nelson Cruz, Brewers OF Lorenzo Cain and Rodriguez, 11
W – Blue Jays LHP Ricky Romero, 3
ERA (10-plus innings pitched) – Marlins RHP Clay Hensley, 0.00
WHIP – Twins RHP Kevin Slowey, 0.82
S – Seven with 2 – including Giants RH Sergio Gomez and Astros LHP Wesley Wright, who might have some chances to save games in the majors this season
SO – Orioles LHP Brian Matusz, 18
A Derek Jeter Rule?:
Is Bud Selig running the NFL now too? That’s the only reason I could think of that would make the football league propose a ridiculous idea like the “Brett Favre Rule” that would change its overtime procedure in the playoffs. Of course, if that rule is enacted, expect Selig to decide that if the Yankees in Derek Jeter’s final year (or the Brewers in any year) lose the seventh game of the World Series, it would be extended to best-of-nine.
Sample Scouting Report:
Shin-soo Choo, OF, Indians
Ht.: 5-11 Wt.: 200 B: L Age: 27*
{2010} Choo began last season with a sore elbow that bothered him with South Korea’s entry in the World Baseball Classic. For the rest of the year, he was a pain to American League pitchers. He batted .275 against left-handers, allowing him to avoid being platooned. Choo strikes out a lot, but he also has walked enough to produce on-base percentages of .397 and .394 during the past two seasons. Batting third in Cleveland’s lineup, he should both drive in and score plenty of runs. Born: July 13, 1982, South Korea*. 2009: 583 AB, .300 BA, 20 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 87 R.
Projection
AB: 556 BA: .302 HR: 21 RBI: 92 SB: 17 R: 93 Value: $17
Monday, July 6, 2009
5-50 rule predicts no 20-game winners, 58 HR for leader
Today, not the All-Star break, marks the halfway point of the major league season.
Teams have been playing for 13 of the 26 weeks in the season. Some teams have played more than 81 (half of the 162 games). I haven’t looked at the standings, but I’d be surprised if a number of teams haven’t played exactly 81. I’m now watching the Rangers and Angels, who both are playing their 81st game as I write.
This is a good time to look at the major league leaders in common fantasy statistical categories, plus a few others that tell us exactly how effective players have been for half a season.
As you look at these, remember the 5-50 Rule.
The final statistical leaders are likely to have totals 5 per cent poorer than the halfway totals multiplied by 2. So if a current stat leader has 50, the leading total at the end of the season should be about (50X2)-5%, or 100-5=95. For averages and ratios, the final leader should be about 95 per cent as good as the halfway leader’s figure. The easiest way to see that among the current leaders is in ERA, where the season leader would be about 5 per cent worse than Zack Greinke’s 2.00, or 2.10.
The reason for the 5 per cent half of the 5-50 Rule is that in each half of the season someone is likely to have a similar performance over that period of time. It’s not likely that one person could keep up that pace over 162 games, but two individuals could have that type of performance over an 80-or-so-game haul.
It’s just as likely that the top second-half performer could have a better “other” half of the year than what the first-half statistical leader produces over the final 80-some games. That begets the 50 portion of the 5-50 Rule, that about 50 per cent of the statistical leaders at season’s end would be the first-half leaders, and 50 per cent wouldn’t.
Here are the categories, the leaders through Sunday, their totals and the projected top season totals.
BA-Mariners OF Ichiro Suzuki, .362, .344
HR-Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols, 31, 58
RBI-Pujols, 82, 155
SB-Rays OF Carl Crawford, 41, 77
R-Pujols, 66, 125
H-Suzuki, 117, 222
On-base Percentage-Pujols, .460, .437
Slugging Percentage-Pujols, .739. .702. It’s safe to believe that Pujols will lead the majors in one or more of these categories this season.
W-Royals RHP Zack Greinke, Blue Jays RHP Roy Halladay, Rockies RHP Jason Marquis, Twins RHP Kevin Slowey and Red Sox RHP Tim Wakefield, 10, 19. Marquis got a head start toward reaching 19 by winning his 11th tonight. Slowey faces an uphill climb because he’s on the disabled list. The thing to note here is that we’re saying there is not likely to be a 20-game winner this season.
ERA-Greinke, 2.00, 2.10
S-Angels LHP Brian Fuentes, 24, 45
WHIP-Diamondbacks RHP Dan Haren, 0.83, 0.87
SO-Giants RHP Tim Lincecum, 141, 267
Opponents’ Batting Average-Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo, .193, .203
K/W Ratio-Haren, 7.93, 7.53
Teams have been playing for 13 of the 26 weeks in the season. Some teams have played more than 81 (half of the 162 games). I haven’t looked at the standings, but I’d be surprised if a number of teams haven’t played exactly 81. I’m now watching the Rangers and Angels, who both are playing their 81st game as I write.
This is a good time to look at the major league leaders in common fantasy statistical categories, plus a few others that tell us exactly how effective players have been for half a season.
As you look at these, remember the 5-50 Rule.
The final statistical leaders are likely to have totals 5 per cent poorer than the halfway totals multiplied by 2. So if a current stat leader has 50, the leading total at the end of the season should be about (50X2)-5%, or 100-5=95. For averages and ratios, the final leader should be about 95 per cent as good as the halfway leader’s figure. The easiest way to see that among the current leaders is in ERA, where the season leader would be about 5 per cent worse than Zack Greinke’s 2.00, or 2.10.
The reason for the 5 per cent half of the 5-50 Rule is that in each half of the season someone is likely to have a similar performance over that period of time. It’s not likely that one person could keep up that pace over 162 games, but two individuals could have that type of performance over an 80-or-so-game haul.
It’s just as likely that the top second-half performer could have a better “other” half of the year than what the first-half statistical leader produces over the final 80-some games. That begets the 50 portion of the 5-50 Rule, that about 50 per cent of the statistical leaders at season’s end would be the first-half leaders, and 50 per cent wouldn’t.
Here are the categories, the leaders through Sunday, their totals and the projected top season totals.
BA-Mariners OF Ichiro Suzuki, .362, .344
HR-Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols, 31, 58
RBI-Pujols, 82, 155
SB-Rays OF Carl Crawford, 41, 77
R-Pujols, 66, 125
H-Suzuki, 117, 222
On-base Percentage-Pujols, .460, .437
Slugging Percentage-Pujols, .739. .702. It’s safe to believe that Pujols will lead the majors in one or more of these categories this season.
W-Royals RHP Zack Greinke, Blue Jays RHP Roy Halladay, Rockies RHP Jason Marquis, Twins RHP Kevin Slowey and Red Sox RHP Tim Wakefield, 10, 19. Marquis got a head start toward reaching 19 by winning his 11th tonight. Slowey faces an uphill climb because he’s on the disabled list. The thing to note here is that we’re saying there is not likely to be a 20-game winner this season.
ERA-Greinke, 2.00, 2.10
S-Angels LHP Brian Fuentes, 24, 45
WHIP-Diamondbacks RHP Dan Haren, 0.83, 0.87
SO-Giants RHP Tim Lincecum, 141, 267
Opponents’ Batting Average-Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo, .193, .203
K/W Ratio-Haren, 7.93, 7.53
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