There's some baseball news today. Not necessarily real meaty stuff for fantasy purposes, but there could be some clues to mental states that could affect performance.
The Reds and LHP Aroldis Chapman agreed to avoid arbitration by splitting the difference between their requested salary figures with a $5-million contract for this season. The amicable settlement could do a lot more for the closer's pitching than the extra $400,000 he'll receive.
Some day the Drew brothers could become a case study for young athletes who've been told how good they are and had their butts kissed for so long that they believe they're better than they are and somehow above the fray of petty matters such as living a life. Of course, nobody ever listens to such cautionary tales.
Since J.D. Drew turned down a contract offer as a No. 1 overall draft pick and signed as the next year's No. 1, he and SS Stephen Drew have had a litany of issues in negotiations, scads of games missed because of injuries, travels from team to team and potentially shorter careers than expected. (For the purposes of this discussion, Tim Drew doesn't count because he was never very highly regarded or effective.)
On the other hand, the Drews and their agents got their money up front, so perhaps the brothers don't care that they had to go to work only for a few years.
The latest Stephen Drew news is that he still hasn't signed. MLB.com pointed out that the primary unsigned free agents such as Drew, OF Nelson Cruz, DH Kendrys Morales and RHPs Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana haven't signed because they would cost the team signing them a draft pick. The baseball draft is hardly an exact science, so second-round, supplementary and even first-round picks aren't a given. But all five players in this paragraph are flawed in their own ways.
1B Yuniesky Betancourt is off the free-agent market. He has signed a guaranteed one-year contract to play in Japan. That sounds like a definite winner, doesn't it? It's not as if he'll face a steady diet of off-speed pitches that he can't hit over there. Or will he?
* * *
Basketball. My lead is down to 6-2 this week. I'm now behind in rebounds and assists. I could have as many as eight players in the lineup Wednesday to seven for my opponent. He appears to have a lot of rebounders in the lineup. Ricky Rubio should be able to help me in assists, and I hope that rebounder Joakim Noah has recovered from the illness that caused him to miss his last game.
* * *
Hockey. Lost half a point in both power-play points and goalie wins. My only goalie in action Tuesday was Tim Thomas. His former team, the Bruins, roughed him up for six goals, dropping me even farther into last place in GAA and save percentage. For the record, Thomas didn't win either. It's a good thing I didn't use Jonas Gustavsson; he gave up five goals and lost.
Showing posts with label Jonas Gustavsson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jonas Gustavsson. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Monday, January 27, 2014
Garza contract could set a bar too high
The baseline has been set for contracts for the remaining veteran free-agent pitchers. If I were a general manager, that baseline would frighten me.
$50 million for four seasons for RHP Matt Garza? What did he do last season to earn that kind of money? He also has $4 million in incentives, and a $15 option for 2018 that would be vested by a number of innings pitched.
Prediction (and please come back in four years to taunt me or tell me I was right): Garza not only would be with a new team by 2017, but also would not see that option vested.
The other weekend news concerned veterans who might retire. The Dodgers reported have made an offer to 3B+ Michael Young, who is contemplating retirement. And the Pirates are waiting to hear whether RHP A.J. Burnett would retire.
Another prediction: Garza's contract could tell Burnett that he can make a lot of money in 2014. He'll sign a contract with provisions for his family to travel with him at times. That family time seems to be a sticking point.
* * *
Hockey. I had just three players active Sunday, but still gained a point to 67, moving me within eight points of second place. The half-point I gained was in goalie wins, with Tim Thomas pulling it out in overtime even though he didn't play very well and allowed four goals. The other two goalie categories took additional hits from his performance.
I made some moves to try to improve, picking up essentially backup goalies from good teams. Their decimal categories of goals against average and save percentage should be helped by the defense in front of them. And their teams should score enough goals when they play to give them wins. So Jonas Gustavsson and Frederik Andersen are in, and Antti Raanta (who hardly ever plays) and Steve Mason are out. Mason hasn't seemed to recover from that rapid-fire three-goal barrage I saw in Dallas a month or so ago.
I also picked up Vancouver D Kevin Bieksa to replace the minus-14 Keith Yandle. In addition to being plus-4, Bieksa could help in shots and penalty minutes, and marginally in power-play points and ATOI.
Important key: In addition, I finally addressed my league's games limits. With roughly nine weeks remaining (a couple slightly truncated by the Olympics break), I can fall within the limits with games from 26 forwards, 14 defenseman, two either/or utility skaters and eight goalies. So I scheduled a plan for this week that knocked off a total of seven games from what I would have used with no limit. The tricky part is the days when almost every team plays. There are just four spots for skaters on the bench, so I have either to play more skaters than I want or to waive some to add players who aren't actually playing. Let's see how my method goes; I'll keep you posted.
With this plan, I wouldn't come up to the last week or two with no games remaining. But if I had implemented something like it at the beginning of the season, I could have gotten by with maybe one or two players per week sitting out.
* * *
Basketball. I might have outsmarted myself on this one. Playing my strongest (field-goal) shooting percentage lineup may have carried me to a narrow win in FG% by .0012, but could have cost me a point in free throw percentage.
I benched Victor Oladipo, who was 6 for 12 from the field and 6 for 6 at the foul line. The thinking was that bigger men closer to the basket would have higher percentages than outside shooters such as Oladipo.
The thinking was partially correct. Inconsistent G Joe Johnson was 2 for 7 from the field and missed 1 of 2 free throws. But Anderson Varejao was 1 for 9 from the field, and Jared Sullinger went 1 for 7. Carmelo Anthony's 35 points didn't help because he was 14 for 31 from the field. Can't really complain, though, because his 23 for 35 in Friday's 62-point effort was the biggest difference for me in FG%.
Even more damaging, big man Varejao also was 0 for 3 at the foul line. His knee could have been bothering him after he fell to the floor hard in a collision with Markieff Morris, but still ...
I can't find the team totals for the week, but substituting Oladipo's perfect free throw shooting for Varejao's perfectly awful night could have made up the difference in my .7664-.7582 loss. On Sunday, my team was 17 for 23 (just .7391) with Varejao, and would have been 23 for 26 (.8846). My opponent's players were on fire at 20 for 23 (.870).
The 7-1 week still increased my lead over two teams tied for second place to 8 1/2 games. I'm surprised, after it took so many weeks to make up the last few games to get into first place that I have built such a big lead in just two weeks. Can't let up, though.
Also made a player move at guard, with the Lakers' Jodie Meeks replacing Mo Williams.
$50 million for four seasons for RHP Matt Garza? What did he do last season to earn that kind of money? He also has $4 million in incentives, and a $15 option for 2018 that would be vested by a number of innings pitched.
Prediction (and please come back in four years to taunt me or tell me I was right): Garza not only would be with a new team by 2017, but also would not see that option vested.
The other weekend news concerned veterans who might retire. The Dodgers reported have made an offer to 3B+ Michael Young, who is contemplating retirement. And the Pirates are waiting to hear whether RHP A.J. Burnett would retire.
Another prediction: Garza's contract could tell Burnett that he can make a lot of money in 2014. He'll sign a contract with provisions for his family to travel with him at times. That family time seems to be a sticking point.
* * *
Hockey. I had just three players active Sunday, but still gained a point to 67, moving me within eight points of second place. The half-point I gained was in goalie wins, with Tim Thomas pulling it out in overtime even though he didn't play very well and allowed four goals. The other two goalie categories took additional hits from his performance.
I made some moves to try to improve, picking up essentially backup goalies from good teams. Their decimal categories of goals against average and save percentage should be helped by the defense in front of them. And their teams should score enough goals when they play to give them wins. So Jonas Gustavsson and Frederik Andersen are in, and Antti Raanta (who hardly ever plays) and Steve Mason are out. Mason hasn't seemed to recover from that rapid-fire three-goal barrage I saw in Dallas a month or so ago.
I also picked up Vancouver D Kevin Bieksa to replace the minus-14 Keith Yandle. In addition to being plus-4, Bieksa could help in shots and penalty minutes, and marginally in power-play points and ATOI.
Important key: In addition, I finally addressed my league's games limits. With roughly nine weeks remaining (a couple slightly truncated by the Olympics break), I can fall within the limits with games from 26 forwards, 14 defenseman, two either/or utility skaters and eight goalies. So I scheduled a plan for this week that knocked off a total of seven games from what I would have used with no limit. The tricky part is the days when almost every team plays. There are just four spots for skaters on the bench, so I have either to play more skaters than I want or to waive some to add players who aren't actually playing. Let's see how my method goes; I'll keep you posted.
With this plan, I wouldn't come up to the last week or two with no games remaining. But if I had implemented something like it at the beginning of the season, I could have gotten by with maybe one or two players per week sitting out.
* * *
Basketball. I might have outsmarted myself on this one. Playing my strongest (field-goal) shooting percentage lineup may have carried me to a narrow win in FG% by .0012, but could have cost me a point in free throw percentage.
I benched Victor Oladipo, who was 6 for 12 from the field and 6 for 6 at the foul line. The thinking was that bigger men closer to the basket would have higher percentages than outside shooters such as Oladipo.
The thinking was partially correct. Inconsistent G Joe Johnson was 2 for 7 from the field and missed 1 of 2 free throws. But Anderson Varejao was 1 for 9 from the field, and Jared Sullinger went 1 for 7. Carmelo Anthony's 35 points didn't help because he was 14 for 31 from the field. Can't really complain, though, because his 23 for 35 in Friday's 62-point effort was the biggest difference for me in FG%.
Even more damaging, big man Varejao also was 0 for 3 at the foul line. His knee could have been bothering him after he fell to the floor hard in a collision with Markieff Morris, but still ...
I can't find the team totals for the week, but substituting Oladipo's perfect free throw shooting for Varejao's perfectly awful night could have made up the difference in my .7664-.7582 loss. On Sunday, my team was 17 for 23 (just .7391) with Varejao, and would have been 23 for 26 (.8846). My opponent's players were on fire at 20 for 23 (.870).
The 7-1 week still increased my lead over two teams tied for second place to 8 1/2 games. I'm surprised, after it took so many weeks to make up the last few games to get into first place that I have built such a big lead in just two weeks. Can't let up, though.
Also made a player move at guard, with the Lakers' Jodie Meeks replacing Mo Williams.
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Mariners' moves questionable
The Mariners, apparently tired of acquiring 31-year-olds with little or no possibility of improvement, traded RHP Carter Capps to the Marlins for 26-year-old 1B/OF Logan Morrison. There is room for improvement, even though his best season was at age 23. Would he be an improvement over incumbent 1B Justin Smoak, who finally seemed to have a clue in September about hitting major league pitching? Would either Morrison or 31-year-old free agent OF/1B Corey Hart be capable of playing outfield defense with three bad knees between them, carting around 480 pounds of ballplayer? Hart, a two-time All-Star, missed all of this season because of microfracture surgery on both knees. Perhaps the answer to the questions above is that Miami was willing to take a reliever with a 5.49 ERA for Morrison. (And don't tell me anything about ERA+ or win shares for Capps; he wasn't a good pitcher by any measure in 2013.)
Hey, at least Hart and Morrison cost a fraction of what 31-year-old 2B Robinson Cano will.
The only other moves in the last couple of days:
-- The Tigers gave one-trick-pony OF Rajai Davis $10 million for 2 years to platoon in LF with OF Andy Dirks.
-- The Pirates gave RHP Charlie Morton a new 3-year, $21-million contract through 2016, with a team option for '17. Morton was probably the greatest beneficiary of Pittsburgh's new emphasis on shifting its defense for almost every batter.
-- The Rangers made official a 1-year contract with free-agent C J.P. Arencibia.
-- The busy-with-the-little-stuff Marlins confirmed their 2-year contract with free-agent 1B/OF Garrett Jones.
-- Almost forgot. The Mets agreed on a 2-year, $20-million contract with RHP Bartolo Colon, pending a physical. What? Are they afraid he might not be in shape?
RHP Roy Halladay returned to his roots, signing a 1-day contract with the Blue Jays before announcing his retirement. I've seen a lot of support for Halladay as a Hall of Famer, but I'm not so sure. Doc had some great years, but interspersed with those were a succession of injuries and some bad seasons. It wasn't just a Greg Maddux 6-15 or whatever it was rookie season with a bad team followed by lights-out season after lights-out season. What Halladay, a great pitcher, lacked was reliability.
I'll be sending my thoughts about the AFL Top Prospects later.
* * *
Football. I took a 25-point lead in the first of two rounds in my scoring-plus-yardage ESPN league consolation semifinal. I've made some preliminary minor moves for this week, with more possible Thursday. In the scoring-only Andy Memorial Football League I got 1 point out of QB Matthew Stafford (for a 2-point conversion pass). In the same snowy game, my opponent received 10 from Eagles QB Nick Foles. That was enough for me to lose by 1 point, 33-25. That knocked me two games behind the co-leaders with three games left. I'm in a tie for third place, but would lose a tiebreaker. There are something like five teams one game behind us. So I'm figuring that I'll need to win all three weeks (possibly two) to get into the top-division playoffs during the NFL postseason.
* * *
Hockey. I'm mismanaging my goalies again. Here's my current story. On Saturday afternoon, I got to watch in person as Flyers goalie Steve Mason allowed 3 goals in 1:02 against the Stars. My thinking at the time was that Mason has been playing somewhat over his head. Even though he had made a number of outstanding stops (25 saves in two periods), that barrage seemed to be the type of thing that could damage his confidence. Confident goalies are like confident closers; if they're not confident, you can't count on them. I gave Mason another chance Monday, but he gave up four goals again -- to Ottawa!
At the same time, I was figuring it was no longer prudent to keep riding Toronto G James Reimer. To replace him, I picked up tried-and-true free agent Martin Brodeur. So I started Brodeur Tuesday, and he gave up five goals! He's no longer on my team. I've now added Jonas Gustavsson from the Red Wings. Hope he doesn't give up six goals in his first start for me.
Bottom line: I lost 3 more points, mostly in the goalie categories. I'm still in third place, but now much closer to fourth place than second.
* * *
Basketball. After Monday, I was 0-7-1, with a tie in steals. I realized that I had only one player -- Victor Oladipo, who didn't play very well -- active that night. My opponent had three players -- including Stephen Curry, who went for 40-some points.
On Tuesday, I had eight or nine players in action; he again had three. So now I'm ahead 6-1-1. We're still tied in steals, and I'm behind by only one assist. The other head-to-head competiti0ons are pretty close, so if the results stay the same, I'd move up only to seventh place. But I'd be over .500 and within five games of the lead.
Hey, at least Hart and Morrison cost a fraction of what 31-year-old 2B Robinson Cano will.
The only other moves in the last couple of days:
-- The Tigers gave one-trick-pony OF Rajai Davis $10 million for 2 years to platoon in LF with OF Andy Dirks.
-- The Pirates gave RHP Charlie Morton a new 3-year, $21-million contract through 2016, with a team option for '17. Morton was probably the greatest beneficiary of Pittsburgh's new emphasis on shifting its defense for almost every batter.
-- The Rangers made official a 1-year contract with free-agent C J.P. Arencibia.
-- The busy-with-the-little-stuff Marlins confirmed their 2-year contract with free-agent 1B/OF Garrett Jones.
-- Almost forgot. The Mets agreed on a 2-year, $20-million contract with RHP Bartolo Colon, pending a physical. What? Are they afraid he might not be in shape?
RHP Roy Halladay returned to his roots, signing a 1-day contract with the Blue Jays before announcing his retirement. I've seen a lot of support for Halladay as a Hall of Famer, but I'm not so sure. Doc had some great years, but interspersed with those were a succession of injuries and some bad seasons. It wasn't just a Greg Maddux 6-15 or whatever it was rookie season with a bad team followed by lights-out season after lights-out season. What Halladay, a great pitcher, lacked was reliability.
I'll be sending my thoughts about the AFL Top Prospects later.
* * *
Football. I took a 25-point lead in the first of two rounds in my scoring-plus-yardage ESPN league consolation semifinal. I've made some preliminary minor moves for this week, with more possible Thursday. In the scoring-only Andy Memorial Football League I got 1 point out of QB Matthew Stafford (for a 2-point conversion pass). In the same snowy game, my opponent received 10 from Eagles QB Nick Foles. That was enough for me to lose by 1 point, 33-25. That knocked me two games behind the co-leaders with three games left. I'm in a tie for third place, but would lose a tiebreaker. There are something like five teams one game behind us. So I'm figuring that I'll need to win all three weeks (possibly two) to get into the top-division playoffs during the NFL postseason.
* * *
Hockey. I'm mismanaging my goalies again. Here's my current story. On Saturday afternoon, I got to watch in person as Flyers goalie Steve Mason allowed 3 goals in 1:02 against the Stars. My thinking at the time was that Mason has been playing somewhat over his head. Even though he had made a number of outstanding stops (25 saves in two periods), that barrage seemed to be the type of thing that could damage his confidence. Confident goalies are like confident closers; if they're not confident, you can't count on them. I gave Mason another chance Monday, but he gave up four goals again -- to Ottawa!
At the same time, I was figuring it was no longer prudent to keep riding Toronto G James Reimer. To replace him, I picked up tried-and-true free agent Martin Brodeur. So I started Brodeur Tuesday, and he gave up five goals! He's no longer on my team. I've now added Jonas Gustavsson from the Red Wings. Hope he doesn't give up six goals in his first start for me.
Bottom line: I lost 3 more points, mostly in the goalie categories. I'm still in third place, but now much closer to fourth place than second.
* * *
Basketball. After Monday, I was 0-7-1, with a tie in steals. I realized that I had only one player -- Victor Oladipo, who didn't play very well -- active that night. My opponent had three players -- including Stephen Curry, who went for 40-some points.
On Tuesday, I had eight or nine players in action; he again had three. So now I'm ahead 6-1-1. We're still tied in steals, and I'm behind by only one assist. The other head-to-head competiti0ons are pretty close, so if the results stay the same, I'd move up only to seventh place. But I'd be over .500 and within five games of the lead.
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