Pirates hitting, but will they join trend toward more steals?

I started this post late Friday night, figuring I could finish it Saturday morning. Well, it's now early Sunday morning. I'll just update what I wrote for the most part.
The Pirates again jumped on an opposing pitcher early Saturday, then held off the Rays to win 10-5. Pittsburgh scored six runs, four earned, against LHP Matt Moore in the first inning, even without CF Andrew McCutchen. C Russell Martin hit a three-run home run, his third this spring, against RHP Grant Balfour, who's supposed to be Tampa Bay's closer this season. The Bucs' final run came against another veteran reliever, RHP Joel Peralta.
Let me summarize some of the rest of the baseball news.
-- Free-agent RHP Ervin Santana reportedly is close to signing with the Blue Jays, but there also are indications that the Orioles could sign him to complete (?) an almost total overhaul of their rotation. One report said he had agreed to a 1-year, $14-million contract with Toronto, which would make Santana less expensive than Phillies RHP A.J. Burnett.
-- Cardinals 2B/3B Matt Carpenter signed a six-year contract for a minimum of $52 million, with an option for 2020. That's truly a contract with vision.
-- Diamondbacks RHP prospect Archie Bradley is 2-0 and hasn't allowed an earned run this spring. He pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings Saturday in a 5-2 victory over the Angels.
-- The Mariners hammered the Giants 18-3. SS Brad Miller hit his second homer of the spring. OF Michael Saunders also homered and drove in three runs.
-- White Sox LHP Jose Quintana left Saturday's game after facing just two batters. Diamondbacks OF Gerardo Parra hit a line drive off Quintana's lower left leg. He's expected to be held out of baseball activities at least for Sunday.
-- Mariners 2B Robinson Cano missed his third consecutive day Saturday because of root canal surgery.
-- Giants OFs Hunter Pence and Michael Morse are listed as day to day and are expected to miss Sunday's split-squad games because of injuries to Pence's left elbow and one of Morse's calf muscles.
-- Nationals RHP Doug Fister said he isn't concerned about the elbow inflammation that caused him to be scratched from starting Friday. Royals RHP Luke Hochevar might not have been concerned at first, either, but now he'll undergo Tommy John surgery and miss this season.
-- For openers: RHP James Shields will start for the Royals on Opening Day.
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I made a crack a couple of days ago about how Oakland OF prospect Billy Burns could be the next John Cangelosi -- that is, a guy from 20-plus years ago who stole quite a few bases but couldn't do much else for a major league team.
I've also been doing some statistical studies, which show that scoring and power are down in the majors.
What I wasn't thinking was how those two pieces of information are interconnected.
Perhaps it took a feature I saw on how Reds OF Billy Hamilton has been bunting to try to get on base more often so he could use his speed to steal bases.
And I went back even farther, more than 50 years to 1962, to recall how Maury Wills revolutionized the running game with the Dodgers. That influence remained strong for most of the next 30 years, until steroids and power hitters began to take over the game.
Let's talk 2014 -- or definitely later in this decade, if the trends continue. With fewer baseballs flying out of parks and fewer runs being scored, teams will be looking to manufacture runs, as they did during the pitching-dominated '60s.
One way to manufacture runs is by stealing bases. So we can expect to see more steals. Hamilton seems ready this season if he can hit at all. Speedsters such as Burns and Delino DeShields Jr. would arrive later in the teens, if at all.
Will they and other base-stealers have increased value. As an aggregate, no. In Rotisserie (R) League scoring, there still are a finite number of points and dollars of value. More stolen bases mean less value for each steal. If teams do go toward Hamilton/Burns/DeShields-type players, we could see an influx of even more of them, as we did with players such as Vince Coleman, Willie Wilson and Rickey Henderson 30-40 years ago.
There will be more 50-base stealers. Each one of them will have less relative value from base-stealing than Jacoby Ellsbury did with his major league-high 52 bags last year.
That doesn't mean that you shouldn't go after such players. If there are, let's say, eight 50-stolen-base guys in the majors, you'll want one of them and not the ninth-best base stealer. What you won't want would be a bunch of high-power, zero-steals players.
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Hockey. I had just two players active Friday night. The Texas Puckin Penguins lost half a point by dropping into a tie for second in power play points. On Saturday, my team dropped another half a point, to third place, in PPP, and lost half a point in wins. I'm down to 66. The fourth-place team added 1 1/2 points on its own, leaving my margin over that owner to 12 1/2 points.
The good news is that my players now have accumulated fewer games than the two teams ahead of me. I should be able to have more players in my lineup than they do during the last few weeks of the season. I doubt that would help me to move up even to second place.
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Basketball. Team Fresh Prints managed to increase its lead to 6-2 after Thursday's games. Gerald Green would have been practically a one-man wrecking crew -- with 44 points and high totals in the two categories I needed most, 3-pointers and steals -- if his 55% field goal shooting hadn't been the worst of any of my players for the night. On Friday, my opponent had several more players in action than I did, and I fell behind in steals to lead just 5-3. I thought I had posted Friday's lineup after the Thursday game, but apparently not. I just noticed three active players on my bench, highlighted (or lowlighted, in this case) by Jose Calderon's 19 points.
I set my lineups for the final two days of this week. After Saturday, I'll waive two players who will be on the court that night, and grab two free agents so I'll have a full active roster of 10 on Sunday. I'm not going to tell you whom I'll add. Wouldn't want to jinx it or tip off anybody.
Saturday's games came and went, and my lead still is 5-3. I will have a full complement of 10 players Sunday, after re-signing free agents Jared Sullinger and Jodie Meeks to replace Boris Diaw and Marco Belinelli.

Garza contract could set a bar too high

The baseline has been set for contracts for the remaining veteran free-agent pitchers. If I were a general manager, that baseline would frighten me.
$50 million for four seasons for RHP Matt Garza? What did he do last season to earn that kind of money? He also has $4 million in incentives, and a $15 option for 2018 that would be vested by a number of innings pitched.
Prediction (and please come back in four years to taunt me or tell me I was right): Garza not only would be with a new team by 2017, but also would not see that option vested.
The other weekend news concerned veterans who might retire. The Dodgers reported have made an offer to 3B+ Michael Young, who is contemplating retirement. And the Pirates are waiting to hear whether RHP A.J. Burnett would retire.
Another prediction: Garza's contract could tell Burnett that he can make a lot of money in 2014. He'll sign a contract with provisions for his family to travel with him at times. That family time seems to be a sticking point.
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Hockey. I had just three players active Sunday, but still gained a point to 67, moving me within eight points of second place. The half-point I gained was in goalie wins, with Tim Thomas pulling it out in overtime even though he didn't play very well and allowed four goals. The other two goalie categories took additional hits from his performance.
I made some moves to try to improve, picking up essentially backup goalies from good teams. Their decimal categories of goals against average and save percentage should be helped by the defense in front of them. And their teams should score enough goals when they play to give them wins. So Jonas Gustavsson and Frederik Andersen are in, and Antti Raanta (who hardly ever plays) and Steve Mason are out. Mason hasn't seemed to recover from that rapid-fire three-goal barrage I saw in Dallas a month or so ago.
I also picked up Vancouver D Kevin Bieksa to replace the minus-14 Keith Yandle. In addition to being plus-4, Bieksa could help in shots and penalty minutes, and marginally in power-play points and ATOI.
Important key: In addition, I finally addressed my league's games limits. With roughly nine weeks remaining (a couple slightly truncated by the Olympics break), I can fall within the limits with games from 26 forwards, 14 defenseman, two either/or utility skaters and eight goalies. So I scheduled a plan for this week that knocked off a total of seven games from what I would have used with no limit. The tricky part is the days when almost every team plays. There are just four spots for skaters on the bench, so I have either to play more skaters than I want or to waive some to add players who aren't actually playing. Let's see how my method goes; I'll keep you posted.
With this plan, I wouldn't come up to the last week or two with no games remaining. But if I had implemented something like it at the beginning of the season, I could have gotten by with maybe one or two players per week sitting out.
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Basketball. I might have outsmarted myself on this one. Playing my strongest (field-goal) shooting percentage lineup may have carried me to a narrow win in FG% by .0012, but could have cost me a point in free throw percentage.
I benched Victor Oladipo, who was 6 for 12 from the field and 6 for 6 at the foul line. The thinking was that bigger men closer to the basket would have higher percentages than outside shooters such as Oladipo.
The thinking was partially correct. Inconsistent G Joe Johnson was 2 for 7 from the field and missed 1 of 2 free throws. But Anderson Varejao was 1 for 9 from the field, and Jared Sullinger went 1 for 7. Carmelo Anthony's 35 points didn't help because he was 14 for 31 from the field. Can't really complain, though, because his 23 for 35 in Friday's 62-point effort was the biggest difference for me in FG%.
Even more damaging, big man Varejao also was 0 for 3 at the foul line. His knee could have been bothering him after he fell to the floor hard in a collision with Markieff Morris, but still ...
I can't find the team totals for the week, but substituting Oladipo's perfect free throw shooting for Varejao's perfectly awful night could have made up the difference in my .7664-.7582 loss. On Sunday, my team was 17 for 23 (just .7391) with Varejao, and would have been 23 for 26 (.8846). My opponent's players were on fire at 20 for 23 (.870).
The 7-1 week still increased my lead over two teams tied for second place to 8 1/2 games. I'm surprised, after it took so many weeks to make up the last few games to get into first place that I have built such a big lead in just two weeks. Can't let up, though.
Also made a player move at guard, with the Lakers' Jodie Meeks replacing Mo Williams.