I’d like to say I saw the Giants coming a year ago.
It was in Scottsdale during spring training, and I was impressed with Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner and a number of young players I saw there. In fact, I saw enough from players such as Sandoval and Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholtz that I predicted San Francisco would have the majors’ most improved offense in 2009.
That turned out to be an oversight, even though Sandoval was one of the National League’s most exciting hitters last season.
Over a period of several years covering spring training in Arizona, I had chances to observe pitchers such as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum on the field and to talk with them in the locker room. Cain caught me by surprise a few years back. He could pitch, but I had doubts about him because he was so clearly out of shape. Lincecum was pretty much what you see on TV – happy, smiling, bouncing around and leaving us shaking our heads trying to figure out how such a little guy could throw so hard without having his arm come out of its socket.
During the same span, I saw a lot of the Rangers in Arizona and for the last five years back home in Texas. Their arrival was easier to anticipate than the Giants’ youth movement because the Rangers had some spectacular prospects. Most notable were pitchers Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland. There were others – Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland and a seeming tidal wave of pitching prospects that included Blake Beavan, Tanner Scheppers, Josh Lueke and Michael Kirkman.
My rule of thumb is that if half of the top prospects actually pan out, that’s a good track record. Clearly, and despite Holland’s control breakdown in World Series Game 2, Texas has done player development well.
GM Jon Daniels deserves whatever accolades come his way, and probably more. He traded away a passel of prospects – including Smoak, Beavan and Lueke – to obtain LHP Cliff Lee and C Bengie Molina and RF Jeff Francoeur. Texas also picked up 1B/3B Jorge Cantu and SS Cristian Guzman, whose impact was negligible. But for the most part, Daniels’ prospects-for-proven talent tack worked well.
Again, the Giants’ player moves were more subtle. But in the end, the additions GM Brian Sabean made were more important toward a short-term goal of winning the World Series. A goal that either general manager probably would admit was more dream than reality back in March and April.
Anyway, this year’s Giants picked up retreads and castoffs such as Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell and Cody Ross and Javier Lopez. Mixing those players with the prospects I saw in Arizona in March 2009 proved to be an inexpensive, and winning, combination.
It occurred to me that the Rangers’ trades and the Giants’ deals fell into the two categories I’ve found are successful in fantasy leagues. Those are the Big Deals, bringing in a superstar as represented by Lee, and the Small Moves, improving a team incrementally and with little cost. I won this year in a league I had no business winning because, needing stolen bases, I acquired Scott Podsednik. In a weak division, my team held on even though Podsednik barely played in September.
The Rangers also won in a weak division, but the Giants’ National League West was hardly weak. The Padres (and surprisingly the Rockies) had young starting pitching that could rival San Francisco’s.
In the end, despite the hitting heroics of Ross and Edgar Renteria, pitching won the 2010 World Series.
Casual baseball fans asked me if it was common for a team’s batters to fail as spectacularly as the Rangers’ had. Thinking back to their being swept at home in a four-game series by the Orioles and other offensive breakdowns, I replied that they had several stretches of games when they didn’t hit.
Then I threw out the answer, which was so obvious once it hit me in the face:
The Rangers were facing much better pitching on a consistent basis in the World Series.
While they were compiling the majors’ best team batting average against a steady diet of second-line starters from the Mariners and Angels, and even facing some marginal major league starters in the playoffs against the vaunted Yankees and Rays, the Giants were going to battle every day against top pitchers. Mat Latos, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa. In the NLCS, against Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Far more daunting than a worn-out C.C. Sabathia, a not-quite-there Phil Hughes and an elderly Andy Pettitte.
As I’ve pointed out before, defense played a big role throughout the Giants’ run to their first World Series win since they shocked the invincible 1954 Indians (after all, they beat out the Yankees, the only interruption in their run of 9 pennants in 10 years).
The Rangers’ impatience and all-or-nothing swinging hurt them too.
Both teams had good pitchers, but the Giants’ were clearly better in this series. In a different series, Cliff Lee might win twice over Tim Lincecum.
But in the right now, the difference was a simple case of good pitching beating good (if somewhat flawed) hitting.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Thoughts on Game 4
Thoughts on Game 4
Here’s the first thought I wrote down during the game: In the early innings, Hunter has been throwing too many pitches.
He didn’t throw too many late in the game because again he was out after four innings.
Neither of the two things happened tonight that I wrote the Rangers had to do to win.
1. Hunter did not make it through six innings.
2. Texas’ batters didn’t work counts so they could manufacture runs instead of swinging for home runs. There apparently weren’t a whole lot of home-run cuts. Maybe by Ian Kinsler with two on when he was the tying run.
The difference there was that Giants batters were able to prolong at-bats by fouling off pitches they couldn’t handle. Credit Madison Bumgarner for much of that. He lasted twice as long as Hunter, but threw just about 25 per cent more pitches.
Texas also gave Bumgarner some easy outs, holding his pitch count down.
The game’s worst play came when Josh Hamilton tried to steal second base with two out and Nelson Cruz at bat in the bottom of the fourth. The Rangers trailed 2-0 with a right-handed batter against the lefty Cruz. Sure, it would have been nice to get one run there to cut the deficit, but that was a case when a home-run swing could have been desirable. Instead, when Buster Posey threw out Hamilton, Bumgarner got an out without having to throw another pitch to Cruz that time around the batting order.
The two double-play balls also gave Bumgarner outs without having to work very hard.
Another big factor in San Francisco’s lineup was something I pointed out before the series began: DEE-fense. If there’s one area where Bruce Bochy has had an advantage over Ron Washington, this is it.
In Game 1, Washington opted for offense over defense by using Vladimir Guerrero in right field and Nelson Cruz in left. The Rangers committed four errors, two by Guerrero. In Game 4, Bochy chose defense over offense by inserting Travis Ishikawa at first base and Nate Schierholtz in right field. The benefit to taking Aubrey Huff off of first base turned out to be more on the offensive side. Unlike Pablo Sandoval, Huff has extensive experience as a DH. That might have helped; he hit a two-run homer that put San Francisco ahead to stay. The defense wasn’t hurt, either.
Already, Bochy had moved Juan Uribe from shortstop to third base and put Edgar Renteria at shortstop to improve the range but more importantly steady the left side of the infield. Renteria’s history of World Series offensive success didn’t hurt any, either.
Darren Oliver must be a good guy. He has always seemed to get a free pass from the media. This season, he has been living off his good start – which was very impressive. The latter part of the season has not been so impressive. He gave up another run in Sunday’s game.
Even though it’s a tough break for Alexi Ogando apparently to be injured, I think it’s totally wrong for the Rangers to be able to replace him for the final games. It’s just too easy to fabricate a pitching injury to help bail out a struggling bullpen. A team shouldn’t need 12 pitchers for a seven-game series with just four starters anyway.
As a side note, I’m already tired of Little Wash. That’s a sight gag that has more than run its course.
This was probably the worst day in the history of Arlington, Texas. The Rangers were only slightly better than the Cowboys. A lot of the blame, home-run swings or not, has to fall on the middle of the lineup and most notably Guerrero (three strikeouts) and Josh Hamilton (2-for-16 for the series). Others aren't doing much better, but those two are supposed to supply power and runs.
Here’s the first thought I wrote down during the game: In the early innings, Hunter has been throwing too many pitches.
He didn’t throw too many late in the game because again he was out after four innings.
Neither of the two things happened tonight that I wrote the Rangers had to do to win.
1. Hunter did not make it through six innings.
2. Texas’ batters didn’t work counts so they could manufacture runs instead of swinging for home runs. There apparently weren’t a whole lot of home-run cuts. Maybe by Ian Kinsler with two on when he was the tying run.
The difference there was that Giants batters were able to prolong at-bats by fouling off pitches they couldn’t handle. Credit Madison Bumgarner for much of that. He lasted twice as long as Hunter, but threw just about 25 per cent more pitches.
Texas also gave Bumgarner some easy outs, holding his pitch count down.
The game’s worst play came when Josh Hamilton tried to steal second base with two out and Nelson Cruz at bat in the bottom of the fourth. The Rangers trailed 2-0 with a right-handed batter against the lefty Cruz. Sure, it would have been nice to get one run there to cut the deficit, but that was a case when a home-run swing could have been desirable. Instead, when Buster Posey threw out Hamilton, Bumgarner got an out without having to throw another pitch to Cruz that time around the batting order.
The two double-play balls also gave Bumgarner outs without having to work very hard.
Another big factor in San Francisco’s lineup was something I pointed out before the series began: DEE-fense. If there’s one area where Bruce Bochy has had an advantage over Ron Washington, this is it.
In Game 1, Washington opted for offense over defense by using Vladimir Guerrero in right field and Nelson Cruz in left. The Rangers committed four errors, two by Guerrero. In Game 4, Bochy chose defense over offense by inserting Travis Ishikawa at first base and Nate Schierholtz in right field. The benefit to taking Aubrey Huff off of first base turned out to be more on the offensive side. Unlike Pablo Sandoval, Huff has extensive experience as a DH. That might have helped; he hit a two-run homer that put San Francisco ahead to stay. The defense wasn’t hurt, either.
Already, Bochy had moved Juan Uribe from shortstop to third base and put Edgar Renteria at shortstop to improve the range but more importantly steady the left side of the infield. Renteria’s history of World Series offensive success didn’t hurt any, either.
Darren Oliver must be a good guy. He has always seemed to get a free pass from the media. This season, he has been living off his good start – which was very impressive. The latter part of the season has not been so impressive. He gave up another run in Sunday’s game.
Even though it’s a tough break for Alexi Ogando apparently to be injured, I think it’s totally wrong for the Rangers to be able to replace him for the final games. It’s just too easy to fabricate a pitching injury to help bail out a struggling bullpen. A team shouldn’t need 12 pitchers for a seven-game series with just four starters anyway.
As a side note, I’m already tired of Little Wash. That’s a sight gag that has more than run its course.
This was probably the worst day in the history of Arlington, Texas. The Rangers were only slightly better than the Cowboys. A lot of the blame, home-run swings or not, has to fall on the middle of the lineup and most notably Guerrero (three strikeouts) and Josh Hamilton (2-for-16 for the series). Others aren't doing much better, but those two are supposed to supply power and runs.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Thoughts on Game 3
During the off day, I thought of a bunch of thoughts I wanted to add. Not only did I not have time to add those that day, but I've pretty much forgotten them. That was a Friday, and I spent from 9:30 a.m. until 11 p.m. at Wilkerson-Sanders Memorial Stadium preparing for and directing The Scoreboard Show. I'd like to say that was a rousing success, but ...
Anyway, for me Game 3 was a mishmash of checking progress on my phone and then listening to the game in the car on the way home and on the radio here. I spent Saturday afternoon at my second and third high school football games in a 24-hour period.
As a result, I don't have a huge handle on the play by play and its intracacies, so even these thoughts will be short.
Because the radio broadcast was a few seconds behind the telecast, I could get a pretty good idea of what was going to happen by hearing Margaret's reactions from the living room. For instance, I heard "Catch it!" followed by a grown and realized that a Giant had reached base on a long fly ball. Turns out it was a home run. Another team, an "Oh, no!" indicated to me that Bengie Molina probably had grounded into a double play.
And I guess that double play was kind of indicative of the Cowboys' game, and something I consider a warning sign.
By that time, the Rangers had a 4-0 lead, built on two home runs. After that, they put runners on base but couldn't bring them home. The danger is that they might have gone into their mode of "All we have to do is hit enough home runs and we'll win."
That mode leads to a lot of frustrating fly balls to the warning track and popups with runners on second and third with one out.
On the pre-game show* as well as my observations at the two afternoon football games, I knew that there was a relatively strong wind. At Rangers Ballpark, that wind usually is collected behind home plate, then blows out toward right-center field with greater force. Because it was a south wind, it also would have helped fly balls to left.
Despite that wind advantage, the Rangers still managed just two homers, and none after starter Jonathan Sanchez left the game. If they continue to go for homers today, might they have less success?
Just checked tonight's weather forecast for Arlington. Weather.com says the wind will be 9 mph from the south, so the conditions should be similar.
*-The Rangers' pre-game show on 103.3 ESPN wa an unprecedented four hours, giving way to another hour on the ESPN network. Four hours is about half of what the Cowboys get for their pre-game shows any regular-season week when their game starts after 1 p.m. Eastern.
Colby Lewis' continued strong pitching reminded me of a conversation I had with someone from the Cowboys' minor league staff during the regular season. The question was whether Lewis or Tommy Hunter would be a better choice as Texas' third postseason starter behind Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson.
His side of the conversation was that Lewis had been pitching well but had been the victim of poor run support.
My contention was that at some point, he had to take charge and win a game. That was while he was on a streak of nine games without a win, granted with poor run support. All but his final two starts during that span went six innings or more. Five were "quality starts."
Well, Lewis' last four starts all fit the lame quality criteria, and he was 3-1 during that stretch. That earned him a spot in Texas' playoff rotation and made our disagreement moot.
Meanwhile, "Big-Game" Hunter made five more starts -- with only one win, and none of which went more than six innings. He hasn't made it past four innings in either postseason start.
Two factors have to improve for the Rangers to win Game 4.
1. The offense has to manufacture runs, take more pitches and forget about home run trots until the ball clears a fence.
2. Hunter has to make it through six or more innings to help avoid a bullpen meltdown similar to the one in Game 2.
I'm more confident that Hunter could succeed than that the offense could go atainst its nature. That has happened off and on this season. Rangers fans had better hope that switch is on tonight.
Anyway, for me Game 3 was a mishmash of checking progress on my phone and then listening to the game in the car on the way home and on the radio here. I spent Saturday afternoon at my second and third high school football games in a 24-hour period.
As a result, I don't have a huge handle on the play by play and its intracacies, so even these thoughts will be short.
Because the radio broadcast was a few seconds behind the telecast, I could get a pretty good idea of what was going to happen by hearing Margaret's reactions from the living room. For instance, I heard "Catch it!" followed by a grown and realized that a Giant had reached base on a long fly ball. Turns out it was a home run. Another team, an "Oh, no!" indicated to me that Bengie Molina probably had grounded into a double play.
And I guess that double play was kind of indicative of the Cowboys' game, and something I consider a warning sign.
By that time, the Rangers had a 4-0 lead, built on two home runs. After that, they put runners on base but couldn't bring them home. The danger is that they might have gone into their mode of "All we have to do is hit enough home runs and we'll win."
That mode leads to a lot of frustrating fly balls to the warning track and popups with runners on second and third with one out.
On the pre-game show* as well as my observations at the two afternoon football games, I knew that there was a relatively strong wind. At Rangers Ballpark, that wind usually is collected behind home plate, then blows out toward right-center field with greater force. Because it was a south wind, it also would have helped fly balls to left.
Despite that wind advantage, the Rangers still managed just two homers, and none after starter Jonathan Sanchez left the game. If they continue to go for homers today, might they have less success?
Just checked tonight's weather forecast for Arlington. Weather.com says the wind will be 9 mph from the south, so the conditions should be similar.
*-The Rangers' pre-game show on 103.3 ESPN wa an unprecedented four hours, giving way to another hour on the ESPN network. Four hours is about half of what the Cowboys get for their pre-game shows any regular-season week when their game starts after 1 p.m. Eastern.
Colby Lewis' continued strong pitching reminded me of a conversation I had with someone from the Cowboys' minor league staff during the regular season. The question was whether Lewis or Tommy Hunter would be a better choice as Texas' third postseason starter behind Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson.
His side of the conversation was that Lewis had been pitching well but had been the victim of poor run support.
My contention was that at some point, he had to take charge and win a game. That was while he was on a streak of nine games without a win, granted with poor run support. All but his final two starts during that span went six innings or more. Five were "quality starts."
Well, Lewis' last four starts all fit the lame quality criteria, and he was 3-1 during that stretch. That earned him a spot in Texas' playoff rotation and made our disagreement moot.
Meanwhile, "Big-Game" Hunter made five more starts -- with only one win, and none of which went more than six innings. He hasn't made it past four innings in either postseason start.
Two factors have to improve for the Rangers to win Game 4.
1. The offense has to manufacture runs, take more pitches and forget about home run trots until the ball clears a fence.
2. Hunter has to make it through six or more innings to help avoid a bullpen meltdown similar to the one in Game 2.
I'm more confident that Hunter could succeed than that the offense could go atainst its nature. That has happened off and on this season. Rangers fans had better hope that switch is on tonight.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Thoughts on Game 2
The first sign of trouble for Texas tonight came in the top of the fifth inning. After a leadoff double by Ian Kinsler, both David Murphy and Matt Treanor failed to hit the ball to the right side to move Kinsler over to third base in a scoreless game.
Thus, instead of potentially taking a lead, the Rangers fell behind 1-0 in the bottom of the inning. After that, Texas gave the Giants insurance runs by walking batters in the seventh and eighth.
The decreased offensive output from seven runs to none made it easy for Joe Morgan to second-guess manager Ron Washington. Morgan was all over the decision not to play Vladimir Guerrero. The announcer also pointed out that “the other good hitter,” Bengie Molina, was out of the lineup.
It’s surprising that the Hall of Famer, who was considered a good defensive second baseman would dismiss the importance of defense out of hand. Guerrero showed that he no longer can play right field in what must have been the saddest display since Willie Mays was stumbling around in center field for the 1973 Mets. By the way, that was my only direct interaction with Mays, in the Mets’ locker room after Game 2 in Oakland.
Another by the way, tonight in addition to following the fake pitches to the fake batters on the fake field at MLBAM’s Gameday, I listened to the ESPN radio broadcast. I was disappointed that radio broadcasts on the internet are blacked out.
Anyway, Guerrero didn’t belong in the lineup because he can’t play in the field and also because he hasn’t really hit much since July. I attribute Morgan’s stance to what I call the Monday Night Football Syndrome, in which out-of-town network hotshot announcers come to town and pretend they know more about the local team than the local-yokel hicks broadcasting and writing about the games. That extra knowledge usually is nonexistent.
Also, Molina, who hit very little for Texas during the regular season, wasn’t playing because starting pitcher C.J. Wilson established a rapport with Matt Treanor before Molina arrived in Texas.
So it’s possible that Guerrero could have given up some runs on defense and that Wilson might have given up more than one run in the first six innings with Molina behind the plate.
I didn’t hear what Morgan said when Julio Borbon pinch-hit to lead off the eighth inning, with the score 2-0. To me, that was an OK move for several reasons. 1. Guerrero couldn’t tie the game with a home run and could be a liability if he reached base ahead of speedster Elvis Andrus. With at least one runner on base, Vlad would have been the correct pinch-hitting choice. 2. I envisioned Borbon as bunting for a hit, then Andrus reaching base and the two of them working a double steal to get into scoring position ahead of Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. Borbon exploded that thought bubble like a cartoon character with a shotgun by swinging at the first pitch and grounding out. Perhaps he wanted to earn his Historical Texas Rangers card by swinging the bat recklessly but my God, man, you have to take at least a strike and you’re up there to get on base.
A note on Hamilton. Thus far, he has been down, up and down in the three postseason series. The biggest difference was that in the ALCS the Yankees continually pitched around him, walking him as if they were afraid of him and his bat.*
On the other hand, we have Derek Holland. I really like Holland’s future, but in the present – tonight – he entered the game with a runner on first base and two outs and gave up Darren O’Day’s run by walking three batters on 13 pitches. Was he afraid to throw a strike that could be hit? He shouldn’t be, because his pitches are good enough to get batters out.
*Joe Morgan, whom I think can do a good job but may now be too impressed with his own work, probably would say that Hamilton is a Teixeira-like 0-for-the Series because Guerrero wasn’t batting behind him tonight.
Could the Rangers’ biggest problem be Mark Lowe bad karma?
OK, so it’s two games to none, a lot worse than 1-0, but still not critical because the Rangers can regain the lead in games by winning the three games they’re “supposed” to win at home.
The biggest mystery with Texas is what the Rangers might do to win a close game. There was none after the first game against the Yankees in the ALCS. Texas’ bullpen has been spotty – with brown spots in tonight’s game. Because there have been so few close postseason games, closer Neftali Feliz, who had 40 regular-season saves, has none in any of the three playoff series.
Thus, instead of potentially taking a lead, the Rangers fell behind 1-0 in the bottom of the inning. After that, Texas gave the Giants insurance runs by walking batters in the seventh and eighth.
The decreased offensive output from seven runs to none made it easy for Joe Morgan to second-guess manager Ron Washington. Morgan was all over the decision not to play Vladimir Guerrero. The announcer also pointed out that “the other good hitter,” Bengie Molina, was out of the lineup.
It’s surprising that the Hall of Famer, who was considered a good defensive second baseman would dismiss the importance of defense out of hand. Guerrero showed that he no longer can play right field in what must have been the saddest display since Willie Mays was stumbling around in center field for the 1973 Mets. By the way, that was my only direct interaction with Mays, in the Mets’ locker room after Game 2 in Oakland.
Another by the way, tonight in addition to following the fake pitches to the fake batters on the fake field at MLBAM’s Gameday, I listened to the ESPN radio broadcast. I was disappointed that radio broadcasts on the internet are blacked out.
Anyway, Guerrero didn’t belong in the lineup because he can’t play in the field and also because he hasn’t really hit much since July. I attribute Morgan’s stance to what I call the Monday Night Football Syndrome, in which out-of-town network hotshot announcers come to town and pretend they know more about the local team than the local-yokel hicks broadcasting and writing about the games. That extra knowledge usually is nonexistent.
Also, Molina, who hit very little for Texas during the regular season, wasn’t playing because starting pitcher C.J. Wilson established a rapport with Matt Treanor before Molina arrived in Texas.
So it’s possible that Guerrero could have given up some runs on defense and that Wilson might have given up more than one run in the first six innings with Molina behind the plate.
I didn’t hear what Morgan said when Julio Borbon pinch-hit to lead off the eighth inning, with the score 2-0. To me, that was an OK move for several reasons. 1. Guerrero couldn’t tie the game with a home run and could be a liability if he reached base ahead of speedster Elvis Andrus. With at least one runner on base, Vlad would have been the correct pinch-hitting choice. 2. I envisioned Borbon as bunting for a hit, then Andrus reaching base and the two of them working a double steal to get into scoring position ahead of Michael Young, Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. Borbon exploded that thought bubble like a cartoon character with a shotgun by swinging at the first pitch and grounding out. Perhaps he wanted to earn his Historical Texas Rangers card by swinging the bat recklessly but my God, man, you have to take at least a strike and you’re up there to get on base.
A note on Hamilton. Thus far, he has been down, up and down in the three postseason series. The biggest difference was that in the ALCS the Yankees continually pitched around him, walking him as if they were afraid of him and his bat.*
On the other hand, we have Derek Holland. I really like Holland’s future, but in the present – tonight – he entered the game with a runner on first base and two outs and gave up Darren O’Day’s run by walking three batters on 13 pitches. Was he afraid to throw a strike that could be hit? He shouldn’t be, because his pitches are good enough to get batters out.
*Joe Morgan, whom I think can do a good job but may now be too impressed with his own work, probably would say that Hamilton is a Teixeira-like 0-for-the Series because Guerrero wasn’t batting behind him tonight.
Could the Rangers’ biggest problem be Mark Lowe bad karma?
OK, so it’s two games to none, a lot worse than 1-0, but still not critical because the Rangers can regain the lead in games by winning the three games they’re “supposed” to win at home.
The biggest mystery with Texas is what the Rangers might do to win a close game. There was none after the first game against the Yankees in the ALCS. Texas’ bullpen has been spotty – with brown spots in tonight’s game. Because there have been so few close postseason games, closer Neftali Feliz, who had 40 regular-season saves, has none in any of the three playoff series.
Thoughts on Game 1
There were two very obvious warning signs during last night’s game.
1. When the Rangers came to bat in the top of the third leading 2-0, and all three batters hit fly balls for outs without seeing many pitches.
2. When the fifth inning came along and Cliff Lee had thrown about 30 pitches more than Tim Lincecum had.
The first of those sent the message that Rangers batters figured, “With Lee pitching, we have enough runs to win. We don’t have to work to score runs. Let’s just hit the ball as hard as we can.” That’s never a good approach, and even worse on the banks of McCovey Creek.
The second meant that regardless what was going to happen right then, Lee wouldn’t pitch as deep into the game as Lincecum would. It would become a game decided by the bullpens. As it turned out, the pitch count was an indicator of an even worse thing for Texas: The Rangers would lose the game with Lee before the game even got to the relievers.
FYI, this post will be more random thoughts than any coherent, cohesive narrative. I’ll be throwing out the thoughts and in some cases commenting and putting those in perspective.
The Rangers’ first six lineup positions totaled four hits and five total bases. The 7-8-9 spots contributed seven hits and 10 total bases. That’s not a winning formula, either.
I have no idea what the over/under was on this game, but if you bet it over, you won easily. In fact, I’m pretty sure you won before both starters were out of the game. I tried to find online a list of the highest-scoring games in World Series history, to no avail. I wouldn’t be surprised if 18 runs ranked among the 20 highest all-time.
My World Series Preview Email talked about the grossly underrated impact of defense. Ron Washington certainly didn’t read it, or he wouldn’t have gone into a park with a big outfield with starters left to right of Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. Cruz is far better in right – where, if he wanders around under a fly ball into the right position he also can throw out a runner if his throw happens to be accurate. Hamilton is at least average, but not ideal in center field, and by far Texas’ best overall defensive outfielder. There was a time, such as when I saw Guerrero in Double-A a couple of decades ago, when he was a wonderment in right field. Now I wonder what he was doing out there.
I didn’t watch the game on TV because I’m still on my Fox/Lone Star boycott. But I did “see” what was going on through MLB’s Gameday. That was useful for observing pitch counts and pitching patterns, but I have no idea whether some of those Giants doubles might have been outs or possibly singles with competent outfielders tracking them down. But there’s no mistaking that Guerrero wasn’t capable when he committed his two eighth-inning errors.
There was a time when I might have dreamed about Freddy Sanchez’s hitting four doubles in a World Series game, but it’s pretty clear that would never happen in a Pirates uniform. Still, good for Freddy, an overlooked good player because of where he has played.
Here’s a pet-peeve observation. The Rangers added Mark Lowe to their World Series roster. Whether he had struck out the side or pitched as badly as he did, I’d still feel the same way. Namely, that he shouldn’t have been allowed to be on a Rangers postseason roster. He was nowhere near the team before the Sept. 1 roster “deadline.” He pitched a few games after he came off the disabled list during the regular season’s last week. I heard that he had been pitching in the Arizona Instructional League after that, though I’m not sure whether that was the case. It used to be that players had to be on the active roster before Sept. 1 to be eligible for the – well, not playoffs, but World Series. Now it seems that the only requirement is to be somewhere on the 40-man roster, and the major league team can pick and choose from about 20 players for the last few postseason roster spots. Why is it that people now complain about having an expanded roster for September but don’t give a crap who plays in the World Series.
When I’m commissioner, the only players eligible for the postseason will be the 25 on the active roster at the end of Aug. 31, plus those few players on the disabled list then who had been active with the major league team when they were hurt.
Oh, a last point. There’s always overreaction after the World Series’ first game. It’s as if the losing team has no chance.
That attitude has some relevance if the home team loses the opener in a matchup that seems pretty even.
That isn’t the case here. The Rangers lost on the road, where they’re “supposed” to lose. If they win tonight, they’ll actually be ahead of the game – tied 1-1 with three games remaining at home, where they’re “supposed” to win.
I do understand that nearly everyone had Texas penciled, if not inked, in to win because Cliff Lee is “unbeatable” in the postseason and the Rangers were “supposed” to win whenever he pitches. However, he didn’t pitch very Cliffly. So it must be devastating that he lost, right?
Well, no, not really. During the regular season, he had a losing record with the Rangers. Sure, he was 7-0 in his career during the postseason, but could any reasonable person expect him NEVER to lose a postseason decision?
A more damaging sign for either team would be if its bullpen doesn’t pitch any better during the remainder of the series. Also, the Rangers can take heart in having some success against both Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson. Or was that an anomaly?
I lied. I still have one other point to make, and that is about Ian Kinsler’s infuriating nature. Both, or perhaps all three, of the sides to that nature showed up in Game 1.
First, there was the issue of his hitting the first pitch into an inning-ending double play with a run in, the bases loaded and one out in the top of the first. That’s a situation when a batter should be at his most selective, looking for that one pitch that is best for him to hit. Clearly, the best pitch wasn’t the one that Kinsler swung at without seeing any others.
Then in the sixth, he partially redeemed himself by working a walk with a 10-pitch at-bat. Even though the walk came with two out and no one on base, that was a good thing because it drove up Lincecum’a pitch count. It became a better thing when Texas managed to score two runs with two out and drive him from the game.
Finally, Kinsler undid that good on his next plate appearance, when he singled but thought first baseman Aubrey Huff had missed a throw. Ian started toward second base, and Huff tagged him out. That wasn’t an unusual play for Kinsler, a talented player who makes more bone-headed moves than even Nelson Cruz.
1. When the Rangers came to bat in the top of the third leading 2-0, and all three batters hit fly balls for outs without seeing many pitches.
2. When the fifth inning came along and Cliff Lee had thrown about 30 pitches more than Tim Lincecum had.
The first of those sent the message that Rangers batters figured, “With Lee pitching, we have enough runs to win. We don’t have to work to score runs. Let’s just hit the ball as hard as we can.” That’s never a good approach, and even worse on the banks of McCovey Creek.
The second meant that regardless what was going to happen right then, Lee wouldn’t pitch as deep into the game as Lincecum would. It would become a game decided by the bullpens. As it turned out, the pitch count was an indicator of an even worse thing for Texas: The Rangers would lose the game with Lee before the game even got to the relievers.
FYI, this post will be more random thoughts than any coherent, cohesive narrative. I’ll be throwing out the thoughts and in some cases commenting and putting those in perspective.
The Rangers’ first six lineup positions totaled four hits and five total bases. The 7-8-9 spots contributed seven hits and 10 total bases. That’s not a winning formula, either.
I have no idea what the over/under was on this game, but if you bet it over, you won easily. In fact, I’m pretty sure you won before both starters were out of the game. I tried to find online a list of the highest-scoring games in World Series history, to no avail. I wouldn’t be surprised if 18 runs ranked among the 20 highest all-time.
My World Series Preview Email talked about the grossly underrated impact of defense. Ron Washington certainly didn’t read it, or he wouldn’t have gone into a park with a big outfield with starters left to right of Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. Cruz is far better in right – where, if he wanders around under a fly ball into the right position he also can throw out a runner if his throw happens to be accurate. Hamilton is at least average, but not ideal in center field, and by far Texas’ best overall defensive outfielder. There was a time, such as when I saw Guerrero in Double-A a couple of decades ago, when he was a wonderment in right field. Now I wonder what he was doing out there.
I didn’t watch the game on TV because I’m still on my Fox/Lone Star boycott. But I did “see” what was going on through MLB’s Gameday. That was useful for observing pitch counts and pitching patterns, but I have no idea whether some of those Giants doubles might have been outs or possibly singles with competent outfielders tracking them down. But there’s no mistaking that Guerrero wasn’t capable when he committed his two eighth-inning errors.
There was a time when I might have dreamed about Freddy Sanchez’s hitting four doubles in a World Series game, but it’s pretty clear that would never happen in a Pirates uniform. Still, good for Freddy, an overlooked good player because of where he has played.
Here’s a pet-peeve observation. The Rangers added Mark Lowe to their World Series roster. Whether he had struck out the side or pitched as badly as he did, I’d still feel the same way. Namely, that he shouldn’t have been allowed to be on a Rangers postseason roster. He was nowhere near the team before the Sept. 1 roster “deadline.” He pitched a few games after he came off the disabled list during the regular season’s last week. I heard that he had been pitching in the Arizona Instructional League after that, though I’m not sure whether that was the case. It used to be that players had to be on the active roster before Sept. 1 to be eligible for the – well, not playoffs, but World Series. Now it seems that the only requirement is to be somewhere on the 40-man roster, and the major league team can pick and choose from about 20 players for the last few postseason roster spots. Why is it that people now complain about having an expanded roster for September but don’t give a crap who plays in the World Series.
When I’m commissioner, the only players eligible for the postseason will be the 25 on the active roster at the end of Aug. 31, plus those few players on the disabled list then who had been active with the major league team when they were hurt.
Oh, a last point. There’s always overreaction after the World Series’ first game. It’s as if the losing team has no chance.
That attitude has some relevance if the home team loses the opener in a matchup that seems pretty even.
That isn’t the case here. The Rangers lost on the road, where they’re “supposed” to lose. If they win tonight, they’ll actually be ahead of the game – tied 1-1 with three games remaining at home, where they’re “supposed” to win.
I do understand that nearly everyone had Texas penciled, if not inked, in to win because Cliff Lee is “unbeatable” in the postseason and the Rangers were “supposed” to win whenever he pitches. However, he didn’t pitch very Cliffly. So it must be devastating that he lost, right?
Well, no, not really. During the regular season, he had a losing record with the Rangers. Sure, he was 7-0 in his career during the postseason, but could any reasonable person expect him NEVER to lose a postseason decision?
A more damaging sign for either team would be if its bullpen doesn’t pitch any better during the remainder of the series. Also, the Rangers can take heart in having some success against both Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson. Or was that an anomaly?
I lied. I still have one other point to make, and that is about Ian Kinsler’s infuriating nature. Both, or perhaps all three, of the sides to that nature showed up in Game 1.
First, there was the issue of his hitting the first pitch into an inning-ending double play with a run in, the bases loaded and one out in the top of the first. That’s a situation when a batter should be at his most selective, looking for that one pitch that is best for him to hit. Clearly, the best pitch wasn’t the one that Kinsler swung at without seeing any others.
Then in the sixth, he partially redeemed himself by working a walk with a 10-pitch at-bat. Even though the walk came with two out and no one on base, that was a good thing because it drove up Lincecum’a pitch count. It became a better thing when Texas managed to score two runs with two out and drive him from the game.
Finally, Kinsler undid that good on his next plate appearance, when he singled but thought first baseman Aubrey Huff had missed a throw. Ian started toward second base, and Huff tagged him out. That wasn’t an unusual play for Kinsler, a talented player who makes more bone-headed moves than even Nelson Cruz.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Some hockey hints
I've never played fantasy hockey.
However, I have covered an NHL game in two of the last three nights, and I've liked what I have seen from some players.
The Stars' top line features Brad Richards, a supremely talented offensive player who is making linemates Loui Eriksson and James Neal look even better than they are. Dallas doesn't have three lines of scorers -- Brenden Morrow and Mike Ribeiro seem to be the only other forwards capable of scoring -- so Eriksson and Neal might not maintain the benefit of playing with Richards for the whole season. But they would seem to be good short-term pickups at the very least.
Another surprise is goalie Kari Lehtonen. The Finn is a dude, even though he has what would be considered a girl's name in this country. He had 41 saves in Saturday's overtime game, but he might have had more good stops with maybe 25 saves Thursday night. Lehtonen is a big reason the Stars are 4-0 (don't expect that success to last either).
Perhaps the Stars are trying to emulate the Rangers. When last hockey season ended and the current baseball season was beginning, both teams were owned by impecunious ex-millionnaire Tom Hicks. Therefore, almost no money was spent on increasing salaries. Mike Modano and Marty Turco were the highest-profile free-agencydepartures. The Rangers, developing a core of young stars in their farm system, played well despite turmoil to the point where the team has gone the farthest in the franchise's 50 seasons. Don't expect the Stars to do that, which would require winning another Stanley Cup. There's a good chance they might not even reach the playoffs -- especially if the NHL can't find a buyer and players such as Richards have to be unloaded at the trade deadline. I also don't expect that coach Marc Crawrod will do cocaine and have his team rally around him.
However, I have covered an NHL game in two of the last three nights, and I've liked what I have seen from some players.
The Stars' top line features Brad Richards, a supremely talented offensive player who is making linemates Loui Eriksson and James Neal look even better than they are. Dallas doesn't have three lines of scorers -- Brenden Morrow and Mike Ribeiro seem to be the only other forwards capable of scoring -- so Eriksson and Neal might not maintain the benefit of playing with Richards for the whole season. But they would seem to be good short-term pickups at the very least.
Another surprise is goalie Kari Lehtonen. The Finn is a dude, even though he has what would be considered a girl's name in this country. He had 41 saves in Saturday's overtime game, but he might have had more good stops with maybe 25 saves Thursday night. Lehtonen is a big reason the Stars are 4-0 (don't expect that success to last either).
Perhaps the Stars are trying to emulate the Rangers. When last hockey season ended and the current baseball season was beginning, both teams were owned by impecunious ex-millionnaire Tom Hicks. Therefore, almost no money was spent on increasing salaries. Mike Modano and Marty Turco were the highest-profile free-agencydepartures. The Rangers, developing a core of young stars in their farm system, played well despite turmoil to the point where the team has gone the farthest in the franchise's 50 seasons. Don't expect the Stars to do that, which would require winning another Stanley Cup. There's a good chance they might not even reach the playoffs -- especially if the NHL can't find a buyer and players such as Richards have to be unloaded at the trade deadline. I also don't expect that coach Marc Crawrod will do cocaine and have his team rally around him.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
My fantasy lineups
I'm currently competing in three fantasy leagues: one baseball and two football.
1. Lenny Brazis Inner League, Inner League Baseball. I have been in this league since it was formed in 1988. It's the Championship Series, for which statistics for the majors' Division and Championship series are combined to determine who will go on to the Inner League World Series.
This league has two factors that differentiate it from most fantasy baseball leagues. 1) Scoring is by only one player in each of nine stat categories. Thus, it's possible for both my opponent and I to have the same player in different categories. In this case, I have Mark Teixeira for runs and my opponent has Tex for home runs.
2) There's a draft before each round to fill gaps in lineups caused by having players whose major league teams didn't qualify or no longer are in the playoffs.
So I trailed 16-11 in my head-to-head series after the Division Series ended. After that, I had to replace six players from the Twins, Reds and Rays whose teams lost in part because they perform well. I picked up a point to trail 15 1/2-11 1/2 after Friday's game because Hamilton's home run pulled me into a tie in that category, but stayed the same after Saturday's contests by falling behind in runs while I was taking the lead in batting average. My current lineup:
RBI-Guerrero
BA-Utley
R-Teixeira
HR-Hamilton
H-Young
SO-Halladay
SB-Victorino
W-Lee
S-Feliz
2. Andy Memorial Football League (charter member, since 1987). This is a scoring-only league. I'm in second place at 4-1 going in. This week for the first time I have players sitting because of byes. I think I used the same lineup of my first draft picks in each category for each of the first five weeks. In fact, I discovered that three of my four running backs have a bye this week, causing me to have to acquire a free agent. I didn't really take the time to investigate which RBs are owned in this 10-team league, but merely looked at the available freed agents in my deeper 10-team ESPN.com league. The free-agent RBs projected there to score the most points this week were John Kuhn and Earnest Graham, whom I requested in that order. My first choice, Kuhn, was available so I got him and waived Jonathan Stewart. My lineup:
QB-New York Giants (we get all of a team's quarterbacks, not just Eli Manning in my case)
RB-Chris Johnson and Kuhn
WR-Brandon Marshall and Roy Williams (replacing Larry Fitzgerald)
TE-Orlando Gates
K-New England (we get the team there too, and not an individual)
D/ST-Philadelphia
3. ESPN.com fantasy league. I'm 1-4 in this league, for which I got a crappy autodraft. Either I missed something or ESPN doesn't allow you to move players around in the draft order. I found I had to move any players I absolutely didn't want to the bottom of the list of a thousand or so players. I didn't have the time to figure out how to move the player I wanted 15 but ESPN ranked 30th ahead of a guy ESPN ranked 12th but I thought was more like 30th, so I pretty much took my chances with ESPN's order. That yielded two players I absolutely hadn't heard of on my opening-day roster. One of them, Aromasomething, had a pretty good first week so I played him the next week. I don't think the Bears have let him on the field since that first week. The other guy, whose name I don't even remember, hasn't been on my roster since the first week. But at least I could banish Brett Favre and T.O. to places from which they could never be autodrafted for me.
I this league, as I told you, I'm 1-4 but under what I believe are false pretenses. The league has two five-team divisions. Before the first week's games, my schedule said I had a bye so I didn't see any point in adjusting a crappy starting lineup to make it only slightly less crappy for a game I wasn't playing. In the second week, my team rallied for what the box score told me was a 1-point victory after Monday night.
This ESPN league has a feature called League Manager. As far as I can tell, that means whoever is the League Manager can pretty much do whatever he or she pleases. For example, changing the first week schedule after the second week's games have been played. For another example, losing the second week's game by 1 point but later adding in a 2-point "scoring adjustment" so you can win by 1. I have questioned first the necessiry of having a bye, and then taking away the bye and adding a "scoring adjustment," but haven't received an answer to either. In fact, there has been no response to any of my message board questions. I'm not really complaining about the bye-bye bye because I would have been killed that week in any event, even if I could have used my entire bench in addition to my starters.
Enough bitching about the screwed-up league structure. I've been patching together holes and making incremental improvements, in the manner of Lou Saban's 1963 Buffalo Bills. They were something like 0-5-1 and finished 7-6-1 and in a division playoff game with almost an entirely different team from opening day. That's a good story, maybe worth a book some day. So here's my lineup.
QB-Donovan McNabb -- I'd been following ESPN's projections for the most part, but have finally said, "Hell, I never wanted Matt Schaub on my autopicked team anyway" and benched him.
RB-Steven Jackson and Ryan Mathews
WR-Reggie Wayne and Roy Williams
RB/WR flex-My new main man, or at least 1st St. man, John Kuhn
TE-Tony Gonzalez
K-Matt Bryant
D/ST-Chicago
I think I have a chance to win again. The lineup of the guy I'm playing against includes two players on byes. I'd think he's waiting until the last minute to set his lineup if he hadn't played last week with three players on byes. This particular league sucks for more reasons than one. Of course, no one replied to my post about how many players with byes were "playing" in our league.
1. Lenny Brazis Inner League, Inner League Baseball. I have been in this league since it was formed in 1988. It's the Championship Series, for which statistics for the majors' Division and Championship series are combined to determine who will go on to the Inner League World Series.
This league has two factors that differentiate it from most fantasy baseball leagues. 1) Scoring is by only one player in each of nine stat categories. Thus, it's possible for both my opponent and I to have the same player in different categories. In this case, I have Mark Teixeira for runs and my opponent has Tex for home runs.
2) There's a draft before each round to fill gaps in lineups caused by having players whose major league teams didn't qualify or no longer are in the playoffs.
So I trailed 16-11 in my head-to-head series after the Division Series ended. After that, I had to replace six players from the Twins, Reds and Rays whose teams lost in part because they perform well. I picked up a point to trail 15 1/2-11 1/2 after Friday's game because Hamilton's home run pulled me into a tie in that category, but stayed the same after Saturday's contests by falling behind in runs while I was taking the lead in batting average. My current lineup:
RBI-Guerrero
BA-Utley
R-Teixeira
HR-Hamilton
H-Young
SO-Halladay
SB-Victorino
W-Lee
S-Feliz
2. Andy Memorial Football League (charter member, since 1987). This is a scoring-only league. I'm in second place at 4-1 going in. This week for the first time I have players sitting because of byes. I think I used the same lineup of my first draft picks in each category for each of the first five weeks. In fact, I discovered that three of my four running backs have a bye this week, causing me to have to acquire a free agent. I didn't really take the time to investigate which RBs are owned in this 10-team league, but merely looked at the available freed agents in my deeper 10-team ESPN.com league. The free-agent RBs projected there to score the most points this week were John Kuhn and Earnest Graham, whom I requested in that order. My first choice, Kuhn, was available so I got him and waived Jonathan Stewart. My lineup:
QB-New York Giants (we get all of a team's quarterbacks, not just Eli Manning in my case)
RB-Chris Johnson and Kuhn
WR-Brandon Marshall and Roy Williams (replacing Larry Fitzgerald)
TE-Orlando Gates
K-New England (we get the team there too, and not an individual)
D/ST-Philadelphia
3. ESPN.com fantasy league. I'm 1-4 in this league, for which I got a crappy autodraft. Either I missed something or ESPN doesn't allow you to move players around in the draft order. I found I had to move any players I absolutely didn't want to the bottom of the list of a thousand or so players. I didn't have the time to figure out how to move the player I wanted 15 but ESPN ranked 30th ahead of a guy ESPN ranked 12th but I thought was more like 30th, so I pretty much took my chances with ESPN's order. That yielded two players I absolutely hadn't heard of on my opening-day roster. One of them, Aromasomething, had a pretty good first week so I played him the next week. I don't think the Bears have let him on the field since that first week. The other guy, whose name I don't even remember, hasn't been on my roster since the first week. But at least I could banish Brett Favre and T.O. to places from which they could never be autodrafted for me.
I this league, as I told you, I'm 1-4 but under what I believe are false pretenses. The league has two five-team divisions. Before the first week's games, my schedule said I had a bye so I didn't see any point in adjusting a crappy starting lineup to make it only slightly less crappy for a game I wasn't playing. In the second week, my team rallied for what the box score told me was a 1-point victory after Monday night.
This ESPN league has a feature called League Manager. As far as I can tell, that means whoever is the League Manager can pretty much do whatever he or she pleases. For example, changing the first week schedule after the second week's games have been played. For another example, losing the second week's game by 1 point but later adding in a 2-point "scoring adjustment" so you can win by 1. I have questioned first the necessiry of having a bye, and then taking away the bye and adding a "scoring adjustment," but haven't received an answer to either. In fact, there has been no response to any of my message board questions. I'm not really complaining about the bye-bye bye because I would have been killed that week in any event, even if I could have used my entire bench in addition to my starters.
Enough bitching about the screwed-up league structure. I've been patching together holes and making incremental improvements, in the manner of Lou Saban's 1963 Buffalo Bills. They were something like 0-5-1 and finished 7-6-1 and in a division playoff game with almost an entirely different team from opening day. That's a good story, maybe worth a book some day. So here's my lineup.
QB-Donovan McNabb -- I'd been following ESPN's projections for the most part, but have finally said, "Hell, I never wanted Matt Schaub on my autopicked team anyway" and benched him.
RB-Steven Jackson and Ryan Mathews
WR-Reggie Wayne and Roy Williams
RB/WR flex-My new main man, or at least 1st St. man, John Kuhn
TE-Tony Gonzalez
K-Matt Bryant
D/ST-Chicago
I think I have a chance to win again. The lineup of the guy I'm playing against includes two players on byes. I'd think he's waiting until the last minute to set his lineup if he hadn't played last week with three players on byes. This particular league sucks for more reasons than one. Of course, no one replied to my post about how many players with byes were "playing" in our league.
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