Showing posts with label Tim Lincecum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Lincecum. Show all posts

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Giants banking on rotation plus Hudson

Short update today, at least for now. Lots to do.
In the days leading up to the winter meetings, major league teams seem content with signing deals and making moves to add or retain pieces of their rotation.
The Giants, who won two World Series in the last 4 years, seem confident that with the added infusion of RHP Tim Hudson they again have enough starting pitching to get into the postseason and be a threat to win it all.
They announced that they will resign RHP Ryan Vogelsong, as long as he passes his physical. His contract reportedly would be for about $5 million for 2014, with incentives.
Speculation is that RHP Yusmeiro Petit could compete with Vogelsong for the fifth starter's job behind Hudson, RHPs Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum and LHP Madison Bumgarner.
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Hockey. My team made another jump in the standings, gaining 5 points and moving within 4 points of second place. The increase was mostly because the goalies in my lineup, Steve Mason and Jean-Sebastien Giguere, each won and allowed only goal. There's still room for growth in PPP (power play points), wins and save percentage.
For Saturday, all of the spots in my starting lineup are taken. However, it's possible that none of my goalies would return to play back-to-back games. I moved Toronto G James Reimer ahead of Avalance backup Giguere.
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Basketball. This team is trailing this week's competition 5-3, with the most likely place to gain a game in field goal percentage. The basketball schedule isn't as busy, so just 6 of the 10 spots in my starting lineup are filled.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Thoughts on Game 5

I’d like to say I saw the Giants coming a year ago.
It was in Scottsdale during spring training, and I was impressed with Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner and a number of young players I saw there. In fact, I saw enough from players such as Sandoval and Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholtz that I predicted San Francisco would have the majors’ most improved offense in 2009.
That turned out to be an oversight, even though Sandoval was one of the National League’s most exciting hitters last season.
Over a period of several years covering spring training in Arizona, I had chances to observe pitchers such as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum on the field and to talk with them in the locker room. Cain caught me by surprise a few years back. He could pitch, but I had doubts about him because he was so clearly out of shape. Lincecum was pretty much what you see on TV – happy, smiling, bouncing around and leaving us shaking our heads trying to figure out how such a little guy could throw so hard without having his arm come out of its socket.
During the same span, I saw a lot of the Rangers in Arizona and for the last five years back home in Texas. Their arrival was easier to anticipate than the Giants’ youth movement because the Rangers had some spectacular prospects. Most notable were pitchers Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland. There were others – Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland and a seeming tidal wave of pitching prospects that included Blake Beavan, Tanner Scheppers, Josh Lueke and Michael Kirkman.
My rule of thumb is that if half of the top prospects actually pan out, that’s a good track record. Clearly, and despite Holland’s control breakdown in World Series Game 2, Texas has done player development well.
GM Jon Daniels deserves whatever accolades come his way, and probably more. He traded away a passel of prospects – including Smoak, Beavan and Lueke – to obtain LHP Cliff Lee and C Bengie Molina and RF Jeff Francoeur. Texas also picked up 1B/3B Jorge Cantu and SS Cristian Guzman, whose impact was negligible. But for the most part, Daniels’ prospects-for-proven talent tack worked well.
Again, the Giants’ player moves were more subtle. But in the end, the additions GM Brian Sabean made were more important toward a short-term goal of winning the World Series. A goal that either general manager probably would admit was more dream than reality back in March and April.
Anyway, this year’s Giants picked up retreads and castoffs such as Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell and Cody Ross and Javier Lopez. Mixing those players with the prospects I saw in Arizona in March 2009 proved to be an inexpensive, and winning, combination.
It occurred to me that the Rangers’ trades and the Giants’ deals fell into the two categories I’ve found are successful in fantasy leagues. Those are the Big Deals, bringing in a superstar as represented by Lee, and the Small Moves, improving a team incrementally and with little cost. I won this year in a league I had no business winning because, needing stolen bases, I acquired Scott Podsednik. In a weak division, my team held on even though Podsednik barely played in September.
The Rangers also won in a weak division, but the Giants’ National League West was hardly weak. The Padres (and surprisingly the Rockies) had young starting pitching that could rival San Francisco’s.
In the end, despite the hitting heroics of Ross and Edgar Renteria, pitching won the 2010 World Series.
Casual baseball fans asked me if it was common for a team’s batters to fail as spectacularly as the Rangers’ had. Thinking back to their being swept at home in a four-game series by the Orioles and other offensive breakdowns, I replied that they had several stretches of games when they didn’t hit.
Then I threw out the answer, which was so obvious once it hit me in the face:
The Rangers were facing much better pitching on a consistent basis in the World Series.
While they were compiling the majors’ best team batting average against a steady diet of second-line starters from the Mariners and Angels, and even facing some marginal major league starters in the playoffs against the vaunted Yankees and Rays, the Giants were going to battle every day against top pitchers. Mat Latos, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa. In the NLCS, against Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Far more daunting than a worn-out C.C. Sabathia, a not-quite-there Phil Hughes and an elderly Andy Pettitte.
As I’ve pointed out before, defense played a big role throughout the Giants’ run to their first World Series win since they shocked the invincible 1954 Indians (after all, they beat out the Yankees, the only interruption in their run of 9 pennants in 10 years).
The Rangers’ impatience and all-or-nothing swinging hurt them too.
Both teams had good pitchers, but the Giants’ were clearly better in this series. In a different series, Cliff Lee might win twice over Tim Lincecum.
But in the right now, the difference was a simple case of good pitching beating good (if somewhat flawed) hitting.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Thoughts on Game 1

There were two very obvious warning signs during last night’s game.
1. When the Rangers came to bat in the top of the third leading 2-0, and all three batters hit fly balls for outs without seeing many pitches.
2. When the fifth inning came along and Cliff Lee had thrown about 30 pitches more than Tim Lincecum had.
The first of those sent the message that Rangers batters figured, “With Lee pitching, we have enough runs to win. We don’t have to work to score runs. Let’s just hit the ball as hard as we can.” That’s never a good approach, and even worse on the banks of McCovey Creek.
The second meant that regardless what was going to happen right then, Lee wouldn’t pitch as deep into the game as Lincecum would. It would become a game decided by the bullpens. As it turned out, the pitch count was an indicator of an even worse thing for Texas: The Rangers would lose the game with Lee before the game even got to the relievers.

FYI, this post will be more random thoughts than any coherent, cohesive narrative. I’ll be throwing out the thoughts and in some cases commenting and putting those in perspective.
 The Rangers’ first six lineup positions totaled four hits and five total bases. The 7-8-9 spots contributed seven hits and 10 total bases. That’s not a winning formula, either.
 I have no idea what the over/under was on this game, but if you bet it over, you won easily. In fact, I’m pretty sure you won before both starters were out of the game. I tried to find online a list of the highest-scoring games in World Series history, to no avail. I wouldn’t be surprised if 18 runs ranked among the 20 highest all-time.
 My World Series Preview Email talked about the grossly underrated impact of defense. Ron Washington certainly didn’t read it, or he wouldn’t have gone into a park with a big outfield with starters left to right of Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero. Cruz is far better in right – where, if he wanders around under a fly ball into the right position he also can throw out a runner if his throw happens to be accurate. Hamilton is at least average, but not ideal in center field, and by far Texas’ best overall defensive outfielder. There was a time, such as when I saw Guerrero in Double-A a couple of decades ago, when he was a wonderment in right field. Now I wonder what he was doing out there.
 I didn’t watch the game on TV because I’m still on my Fox/Lone Star boycott. But I did “see” what was going on through MLB’s Gameday. That was useful for observing pitch counts and pitching patterns, but I have no idea whether some of those Giants doubles might have been outs or possibly singles with competent outfielders tracking them down. But there’s no mistaking that Guerrero wasn’t capable when he committed his two eighth-inning errors.
 There was a time when I might have dreamed about Freddy Sanchez’s hitting four doubles in a World Series game, but it’s pretty clear that would never happen in a Pirates uniform. Still, good for Freddy, an overlooked good player because of where he has played.
 Here’s a pet-peeve observation. The Rangers added Mark Lowe to their World Series roster. Whether he had struck out the side or pitched as badly as he did, I’d still feel the same way. Namely, that he shouldn’t have been allowed to be on a Rangers postseason roster. He was nowhere near the team before the Sept. 1 roster “deadline.” He pitched a few games after he came off the disabled list during the regular season’s last week. I heard that he had been pitching in the Arizona Instructional League after that, though I’m not sure whether that was the case. It used to be that players had to be on the active roster before Sept. 1 to be eligible for the – well, not playoffs, but World Series. Now it seems that the only requirement is to be somewhere on the 40-man roster, and the major league team can pick and choose from about 20 players for the last few postseason roster spots. Why is it that people now complain about having an expanded roster for September but don’t give a crap who plays in the World Series.
When I’m commissioner, the only players eligible for the postseason will be the 25 on the active roster at the end of Aug. 31, plus those few players on the disabled list then who had been active with the major league team when they were hurt.
Oh, a last point. There’s always overreaction after the World Series’ first game. It’s as if the losing team has no chance.
That attitude has some relevance if the home team loses the opener in a matchup that seems pretty even.
That isn’t the case here. The Rangers lost on the road, where they’re “supposed” to lose. If they win tonight, they’ll actually be ahead of the game – tied 1-1 with three games remaining at home, where they’re “supposed” to win.
I do understand that nearly everyone had Texas penciled, if not inked, in to win because Cliff Lee is “unbeatable” in the postseason and the Rangers were “supposed” to win whenever he pitches. However, he didn’t pitch very Cliffly. So it must be devastating that he lost, right?
Well, no, not really. During the regular season, he had a losing record with the Rangers. Sure, he was 7-0 in his career during the postseason, but could any reasonable person expect him NEVER to lose a postseason decision?
A more damaging sign for either team would be if its bullpen doesn’t pitch any better during the remainder of the series. Also, the Rangers can take heart in having some success against both Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson. Or was that an anomaly?
I lied. I still have one other point to make, and that is about Ian Kinsler’s infuriating nature. Both, or perhaps all three, of the sides to that nature showed up in Game 1.
First, there was the issue of his hitting the first pitch into an inning-ending double play with a run in, the bases loaded and one out in the top of the first. That’s a situation when a batter should be at his most selective, looking for that one pitch that is best for him to hit. Clearly, the best pitch wasn’t the one that Kinsler swung at without seeing any others.
Then in the sixth, he partially redeemed himself by working a walk with a 10-pitch at-bat. Even though the walk came with two out and no one on base, that was a good thing because it drove up Lincecum’a pitch count. It became a better thing when Texas managed to score two runs with two out and drive him from the game.
Finally, Kinsler undid that good on his next plate appearance, when he singled but thought first baseman Aubrey Huff had missed a throw. Ian started toward second base, and Huff tagged him out. That wasn’t an unusual play for Kinsler, a talented player who makes more bone-headed moves than even Nelson Cruz.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Bizarro baseball: Nats win twice, Sox blanked twice

After we wrote about how the Astros still pretty much suck, one of the connections to better days came up with a big game. RHP Roy Oswalt had a pitching line of 420011 in a 3-0 shutout of the Red Sox. LHP Wesley Wright came up with his second save, but his ERA still looks like the number of one of those barely paved, two-lane state highways out in the sticks. For Houston, Koby Clemens, the son of a former major league pitcher and a performance-enhanced mother, played first base.
Another Red Sox split squad also was shut out, 7-0 by the Rays. RHP Wade Davis lowered his ERA to 7.04 with a pitching line of 430015, and 2B Sean Rodriguez hit his fifth home run against RHP Junichi Tazawa. He knew he was no longer pitching in a Japanese industrial league; Tampa Bay’s three runs in his one inning were the first clue.
A second group of Astros weren’t as fortunate in a 4-1 loss to the Yankees. The game’s highlight was New York RHP Phil Hughes’ lengthy save, with a line of 430012.
Some bad pitchers changed hands in the ballyhooed Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks trade during the off-season. Arizona was left holding the bag with RHP Edwin Jackson, whose line in a 13-7 loss to the Reds was 2 1/3 67720. Jackson gave up a home run to OF Jay Bruce. He and 2B Brandon Phillips came in with averages under .200.
The Phillies used the work of LHP Cole Hamels (line: 521004) and rookie OF Domonic Brown (his first two homers this spring) in a 6-1 victory over the Tigers. One of Brown’s homers was against the losing pitcher, RHP Justin Verlander (3 1/3 34415). The other came against LHP Phil Coke, another in the aforementioned trade.
The Nationals came into the day with an 0-11 record – and left with not one, but two, wins. One split squad defeated the Marlins 12-3 behind RHP Craig Stammen (432014) and a grand slam by OF/2B Willie Harris against LHP Taylor Tankersley. For the other squad, LHP John Lannan’s pitching (421002) C Ivan Rodriguez’s three runs batted in added up to a 4-2 victory over the Cardinals.
In the Indians-Giants game, San Francisco RHP Tim Lincecum had the winning poker hand (444444) but Cleveland won 7-1 behind RHP Jake Westbrook’s pitching (421101) and OF Shin-soo Choo’s homer. We’re touting Choo this spring.
Sample Scouting Report:
Wade Davis, RHP, Rays
Ht.: 6-5 Wt.: 220 T: R Age: 24 Inj. Risk: 10 Alt. Pos.: SP
{2010} Davis throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a hard curve. How far he ultimately advances in the majors could be determined by how well he can develop a third pitch. For now, his status as a prospect is behind LHP David Price and RHP Jeremy Hellickson in the Rays’ organization. Last season, in Davis’ second shot at Triple-A Durham, he was 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings. That performance earned him a spot in Tampa Bay’s rotation after the Rays traded LHP Scott Kazmir. Davis could maintain his starting role by beating out RHP Andy Sonnanstine or become a vital cog in the bullpen this year. Born: Sept. 7, 1985, Lake Wales, Fla. 2009: Rays, 36 IP, 2 W, 3.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0 S, 36 SO.
Projection
IP: 109 W: 8 ERA: 3.88 WHIP: 1.34 S: 2 SO: 102 Value: $4

Monday, March 1, 2010

Hanson starts for Braves vs. Mets Tuesday

First pitches are not far away this spring. The first actual exhibition games will be Tuesday. Other teams, including the Rangers, have scheduled intrasquad games today or Tuesday. For Texas, the intrasquad contests will be both today and Tuesday.
Managers and pitching coaches have spent a lot of time constructing rotations for the first few exhibitions. They have taken into account factors such as who is in or who is trying to be in the regular-season rotation, whose arms from shoulder to fingertip are physically capable of pitching and how the schedules will line up with the regular season for the winners in the spring-training pitching derby.
Here’s a look at some of the early March rotations.
Padres: These days, pitchers making their first exhibition start pitch just two innings. That leaves plenty of innings for the bullpen. In some cases, teams will use two or more starters in the same game. That’s was San Diego has planned Thursday for the first of four games against the Mariners. RHPs Chris Young and Kevin Correia both will pitch then. On Friday, the Padres will use multiple pitchers battling for the fifth starter’s job – RHP Mat Latos, LHP Wade LeBlanc and RHP Sean Gallagher. The Saturday pitchers will include RHPs Jon Garland and Tim Stauffer, and LHP Clayton Richard and RHP Cesar Carrillo will work Sunday. Over the course of the exhibition, that list would be whittled down to five starters.
Twins: Like the Padres and Seattle in Peoria, Ariz., Minnesota’s exhibition season will open with a series against a team training in the same town: the Red Sox in Fort Myers, Fla. The Twinkies will visit the Sox for the first game Thursday, with RHP Nick Blackburn scheduled to start, with RHP Kevin Slowey also pitching. The Twins will be the home team Friday, with RHP Carl Pavano starting. Back at City of Palms Park Saturday, LHP Francisco Liriano will start for Minnesota. RHP Scott Baker and LHP Brian Duensing both will start Sunday in split-squad games against the Yankees and Pirates. On Monday, Blackburn and Slowey would pitch again against the Orioles in Sarasota. The Twins will open the regular season with a rotation of Baker, Pavano, Blackburn and Slowey.
Braves: Manager Bobby Cox named RHP Derek Lowe the starter for the regular-season opener, but RHP Tommy Hanson will start the year’s first exhibition between two major league teams – Tuesday at 1:10 p.m. EST against the Mets in Port St. Lucie, Fla. The game will be on mlb.tv. Atlanta and the Mets will play Wednesday in Lake Buena Vista, with RHP Tim Hudson starting for the Braves. Against the Pirates Thursday, RHP Kenshin Kawakami will start. Lowe is scheduled against the Nationals Friday. RHP Jair Jurrjens threw 15 pitches off a mound today for the first time this spring, while he’s recovering from a sore shoulder. He’ll throw again in three side sessions before joining the exhibition rotation, so RHP Kris Medlen will fill in for Sunday’s game against the Astros in Kissimmee.
Other teams have named starters for their first exhibition. Among them are the Orioles (RHP Jeremy Guthrie Wednesday against the Rays), Cubs (RHP Randy Wells Thursday vs. the Athletics) and Reds (RHP Mike Lincoln Friday against the Indians). Lincoln, who has made almost all of his major league appearances in relief, is trying to win the fifth starter’s position in a competition with LHPs Aroldis Chapman and Matt Maloney and RHPs Micah Owings, Justin Lehr, Travis Wood and Kip Wells. Good luck, Mike Lincoln.
Playing ball:
The actual first pitch of spring training is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. EST Tuesday, when the Pirates host Manatee Community College-Sarasota. The day’s other game is the Tigers’ 1:05 date with Florida Southern College. Detroit apparently feels confident enough to take on a four-year college.
Injuries:
The Blue Jays were encouraged today when RHP Dustin McGowan pitched batting practice in his first appearance against batters since July 2008.
Rangers LF Josh Hamilton sat out today’s intrasquad game because of renewed pain in his left shoulder. Better news for Texas was that LHP Derek Holland, recovering from a sprained knee, pitched batting practice. RHP Warner Madrigal (tight forearm) isn’t expected to throw again until long toss Thursday.
Money, money, money, money:
Giants RHP Tim Lincecum, a two-time National League Cy Young Award winner, will be making $10 million this season, the first under his new two-year contract. To justify his $18.5-million salary, Lincecum’s teammate, LHP Barry Zito, would have to BE Cy Young about 110 years ago.
The Angels have money to spend, but they don’t treat their moolah lightly. They allowed free-agent 3B Chone Figgins to go to the Mariners, who will pay him about $9 million. LA/Anaheim has five infielders – 1B Kendry Morales, 2B Howie Kendrick, SS Erick Aybar, 3B Brandon Wood and 3B/SS Maicer Izturis – under contract for barely more than $8. They’re all signed through 2012, though it seems dicey to be paying Wood until 2014 until he shows something in the majors.
3B/1B Troy Glaus could be a bargain for the Braves. They signed the free agent to a one-year, $2-million contract. He has noted no limitations from the right shoulder that kept him out of the majors most of last season.
The Yankees signed RHP Chan Ho Park to a one-year deal for $1.2 million, plus $300,000 in incentives. He’s not being overpaid on the gross scale that he was by the Rangers, but his salary still seems high for a long reliever.
Speaking of the Yanks’ bullpen:
RHP Mariano Rivera and LHP Damaso Marte threw for the first time today. Rivera’s debut was good news for New York fans, Marte’s not so much.
A battle:
2B/RF Ben Zobrist has a place in the Rays’ batting order. What isn’t known is where he would play. The decision will come down to whether OF Matt Joyce can show more this spring than either SS Reid Brignac or 2B Sean Rodriguez. Two of the three are expected to be on the Opening Day roster. If Joyce makes the team out of spring training, Zobrist wouldn’t be needed in the outfield and would start at second base. If the two infielders make the roster, one would start at second base and Zobrist would go to right field. Our money is on Joyce and Rodriguez to be on the roster.