Some very exciting stuff on the lukewarm hot stove Monday -- especially if you're a fan of utility infielders.
Three or four of them signed minor league contracts. The Indians agreed to terms with Elliot Johnson, whose base stealing actually can give him some fantasy value; the going-several-directions-at-once Brewers welcomed Pete Orr, and Chris Nelson signed with the Reds, one of the few teams he didn't play for in 2013. I still haven't seen a confirmation that the Rockies and Paul Janish made a deal. If you're looking at Janish for your fantasy team, you're in a for a long season. He can help a team's defense for a few late innings a week.
And there's speculation that LHP David Huff, newly acquired from the Yankees, could fill a role as the Giants' fifth starter. If Huff's a viable major league starter at this point, why wouldn't New York keep him? Is his salary too small?
* * *
Basketball. I'm off to a 7-1 start this week, but I don't put much stock in that. I had four players active Monday to my opponent's one. He's leading in free throw percentage because his player, Trey Burke, made his only attempt. So my .875 is second to Burke's 1.000.
My division and league leads are 8 1/2 games with six weeks remaining. I don't plan to let up. My belief is that fantasy owners, winning or losing, owe it to the rest of the league to play from the first week to the last. On my part, there won't be any of the thinking that some NBA fans try to mind-meld on to their favorite team: "If we could finish seventh instead of sixth, we wouldn't have to face the (current hot team in third place in the conference)." I wouldn't look at overall lineups and say during the last week, "If I lay down against this fifth-place team, it could move into fourth and I'd have an easy road in the semifinals."
But you know what? I still have to win the league to get the first seed.
* * *
Hockey. All four of my bench players were from the Avalanche. Two factors went into that decision. 1) I have to limit the games played, as I outlined in the previous post, so that I'm not sitting on the fantasy sidelines for the last week or two, and 2) The Stars have been hot lately, so the matchups might not be good.
That strategy didn't look good as I watched at the American Airlines Center when "my" Nathan MacKinnon scored in the first minute or when Paul Stastny scored on a power play or later when it appeared that Stastny might have deflected what became the game-winning goal.
But in the end, the four Colorado players were a combined minus-4.
Here's an edited version of what I wrote about the game itself.
My acquisition of Kevin Bieksa looked good. He provided an assist and two penalty minutes to help me within within one PIM of the team directly ahead of me. A question I've often asked: Why the "I" in PIM?
* * *
The line for the big game 48 in my "Bet a Thousand" pool was set today at Denver minus-2. My own research had come up with this: Denver minus-2.
What to do? At the time I made the line, I established this line of thinking. If the weather is reasonable (which it is expected to be Sunday), that could be to Denver's advantage. Also, it's Peyton Manning against Russell Wilson. Of course, it's really Manning against the Seahawks' scary defense, but still he's Peyton Manning. Also -- and this is a line of thinking that could get you killed if you always used it -- a rule of thumb is to ask yourself whether a team is likely to win by a field goal or win by a touchdown. If Sunday's game comes down to the last minute tied and the Broncos have the ball, could they be likely to get a field goal?
An even more dangerous way to approach the decision is to look at history. We've had 47 years of big games. In that time, there has been only one game decided by 1 point: the Bills' wide-right loss to the Giants in big game 25. Six games were decided by 3 points, with five of those during the past 12 years. What I think we can take away from this is that it's likely whatever team wins will do it by 3 or more points.
So the question is "Are the Broncos likely to win?" I think so, even as much as I respect Seattle's defense.
I expect the people in my pool to be about evenly split. That would mean of the five people ahead of me in the pool, two or three of those ahead of me would be likely to take Seattle. So if Denver covers, I'd move up from sixth to third or fourth. If the Broncos win by 2, I'd remain sixth, the last place in the money. If Seattle wins, I'd lose anyway -- which I would also do if Denver somehow won by 1.
I think the Broncos will win, quite likely by a narrow margin such as 3 points. If I made a token "wager" such as $100, it's likely that at least one person would pass me and I'd be out of the money no matter who wins the game or covers.
On the other hand, if those at the top take Seattle, and one or more of the others take the safety-first approach, I could move up even higher than third or fourth.
The most I could finish with in my hypothetical bank would be $5,800, which would keep me in the money somewhere. Obviously, I would lose with $0, but I might also lose with $3,000.
It doesn't hurt that I have some other irons in the fire. In the Pittsburgh playoff pick-'em pool, I think I would finish first if Seattle wins. Also, I have a puncher's chance to win at least my original entry fee in a traditional 100-square Super Bowl pool with winners each quarter and prize money for diagonally touching squares.
Showing posts with label Peyton Manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peyton Manning. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Friday, December 13, 2013
Meetings could also be a pre-climax
This year's winter meetings were indeed an anti-climax after a flurry of player moves during the week that preceded them. The meeting might also be a pre-climax to the few free-agent signings (headlined by Shin-soo Choo and Grant Balfour) and possible trades (David Price?) still to come.
The meetings came and went quickly -- I guess unless you went there and spent a lot of time hanging around the hotel lobby.
The moves, mostly minor, over the last couple of days:
-- Red Sox. Finalized their 2-year, $32-million resigning of 1B Mike Napoli. To make room on the 40-man roster, Boston designated OF Alex Castellanos for assignment.
-- Giants. Probably overpaid $5 million for 1 year of OF/1B Mike Morse, who's likely to become their left fielder.
-- Phillies. Signed RHP Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona and drafted RHP Kevin Munson from the Diamondbacks.
-- Tigers. Signed free-agent RHP Joba Chamberlain to a 1-year, $2.5-million contract. I know Detroit's bullpen has been terrible, but what has Chamberlain to show he's any better and justify a $2.5M price tag.
-- Marlins. Traded OF Justin Ruggiano to the Cubs for OF Brian Bogusevic. I actually like this move for Miami. I saw Bogusevic make the conversion from pitching, and believe he has more upside than Ruggiano, who may have just had the best season he ever will have. The Marlins also trolled the low-cost waters by taking shots at four players in the Rule 5 minor league draft.
-- Astros. Traded the first pick in the major league Rule 5 draft, LHP Patrick Schuster, to the Padres to complete the deal that sent RHP Anthony Bass to Houston Wednesday. Not really a big deal on either side. Schuster, who pitched four consecutive no-hitters in high school in 2009, had a 1.83 ERA as a reliever for the Diamondbacks' affiliate in the high Class A California League last season. But he doesn't throw hard, and that's still a long way from the majors.
-- Angels. Acquired LHP Brian Moran, a nephew of ex-major leaguer B.J. Surhoff, whom the Blue Jays had drafted from the Mariners organization, for $244,000 of international-player bonus money. Moran has Triple-A experience. That and left-handedness could earn him at least a few sips of coffee in the majors.
-- Blue Jays. They also were pretty busy in Thursday's minor league draft. One of the players they took was LHP Richard "Big Dick" Bleier from the Rangers organization.
-- Dodgers. Acquired another major league draft pick, RHP Seth Rosin, by sending cash to the Mets. Rosin was throwing low-90s fastballs in Double-A this year.
-- White Sox. Drafted and kept C Adrian Nieto from the Nationals organization. He batted .285 with 11 homers and threw out 33 per cent of base stealers in the high A Carolina League. It might be difficult for Chicago to keep Nieto on its roster for 2014, and also to send him to the minors without someone else claiming him.
-- Rockies. Drafted RHP Tommy Kahnle from the Yankees. He threw in the mid-90s, but without much control, in Double-A. Colorado needs pitching, so it wouldn't be a stretch to think Kahnle could be in its bullpen in '14.
-- Brewers. Drafted LHP Wei-Chung Wang from the Pirates. The Taiwanese pitcher was in the Rookie Class Gulf Coast League this year after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
-- Diamondbacks. In addition to losing a couple of players in the major league Rule 5 draft, Arizona claimed RHP Marcos Mateo, a former major leaguer, from the Cubs organization.
-- Orioles. Drafted 3B Michael Almanzar, the son of former major league pitcher Carlos Almanzar, from the Red Sox. Michael hit 16 homers in Double-A this year, but needs to refine his swing, selectiveness and defense. Baltimore also obtained C David Freitas from the Athletics organization as the final return for RHP Jim Johnson.
-- Braves. Avoided arbitration by resigning RHP Jordan Walden for 1 year and $1.49 million.
-- Pirates. Resigned SS Clint Barmes for 2014 for what ESPN reported as $2 million. Pittsburgh has not confirmed a reported agreement with free-agent RHP Edinson Volquez for a year and $5 million. That's despite his 5.71 ERA last season. Perhaps the Pirates think he could benefit, as their 2013 starters did, from their advanced metrics that led to successful placement of fielders. If nothing else, Volquez is cheaper than resigning RHP A.J. Burnett. Perhaps the Bucs could use some of the difference toward a contract with free-agent 1B James Loney, which could run to $30 million for 3 years. Or they could trade for a less-expensive 1B such as Seattle's Justin Smoak.
* * *
Overall, Thursday was a good night for my fantasy teams.
Football. In my scoring-plus-yardage league playoffs, I picked up a sub-standard 17 points from Peyton Manning, plus 14 for Keenan Allen and 3 for Danny Woodhead to take a 141-87 lead into the weekend. I'll have six more players in action; my opponent will have seven. In my scoring-only league, Allen's two TDs gave me a 12-6 lead over my opponent, whose points came from Manning's TD passes. Better yet, I still have six players to go; he has just four.
Hockey. A rare good night in plus/minus helped me gain 3 points. The second-place team lost 2 points, so I cut the gap to 7 1/2 points.
Basketball. I'm still leading 7-1, trailing only in 3-pointers. To that end, I picked up the Suns' Gerald Green to replace the next-to-worthless J.R. Smith.
The meetings came and went quickly -- I guess unless you went there and spent a lot of time hanging around the hotel lobby.
The moves, mostly minor, over the last couple of days:
-- Red Sox. Finalized their 2-year, $32-million resigning of 1B Mike Napoli. To make room on the 40-man roster, Boston designated OF Alex Castellanos for assignment.
-- Giants. Probably overpaid $5 million for 1 year of OF/1B Mike Morse, who's likely to become their left fielder.
-- Phillies. Signed RHP Roberto Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona and drafted RHP Kevin Munson from the Diamondbacks.
-- Tigers. Signed free-agent RHP Joba Chamberlain to a 1-year, $2.5-million contract. I know Detroit's bullpen has been terrible, but what has Chamberlain to show he's any better and justify a $2.5M price tag.
-- Marlins. Traded OF Justin Ruggiano to the Cubs for OF Brian Bogusevic. I actually like this move for Miami. I saw Bogusevic make the conversion from pitching, and believe he has more upside than Ruggiano, who may have just had the best season he ever will have. The Marlins also trolled the low-cost waters by taking shots at four players in the Rule 5 minor league draft.
-- Astros. Traded the first pick in the major league Rule 5 draft, LHP Patrick Schuster, to the Padres to complete the deal that sent RHP Anthony Bass to Houston Wednesday. Not really a big deal on either side. Schuster, who pitched four consecutive no-hitters in high school in 2009, had a 1.83 ERA as a reliever for the Diamondbacks' affiliate in the high Class A California League last season. But he doesn't throw hard, and that's still a long way from the majors.
-- Angels. Acquired LHP Brian Moran, a nephew of ex-major leaguer B.J. Surhoff, whom the Blue Jays had drafted from the Mariners organization, for $244,000 of international-player bonus money. Moran has Triple-A experience. That and left-handedness could earn him at least a few sips of coffee in the majors.
-- Blue Jays. They also were pretty busy in Thursday's minor league draft. One of the players they took was LHP Richard "Big Dick" Bleier from the Rangers organization.
-- Dodgers. Acquired another major league draft pick, RHP Seth Rosin, by sending cash to the Mets. Rosin was throwing low-90s fastballs in Double-A this year.
-- White Sox. Drafted and kept C Adrian Nieto from the Nationals organization. He batted .285 with 11 homers and threw out 33 per cent of base stealers in the high A Carolina League. It might be difficult for Chicago to keep Nieto on its roster for 2014, and also to send him to the minors without someone else claiming him.
-- Rockies. Drafted RHP Tommy Kahnle from the Yankees. He threw in the mid-90s, but without much control, in Double-A. Colorado needs pitching, so it wouldn't be a stretch to think Kahnle could be in its bullpen in '14.
-- Brewers. Drafted LHP Wei-Chung Wang from the Pirates. The Taiwanese pitcher was in the Rookie Class Gulf Coast League this year after coming back from Tommy John surgery.
-- Diamondbacks. In addition to losing a couple of players in the major league Rule 5 draft, Arizona claimed RHP Marcos Mateo, a former major leaguer, from the Cubs organization.
-- Orioles. Drafted 3B Michael Almanzar, the son of former major league pitcher Carlos Almanzar, from the Red Sox. Michael hit 16 homers in Double-A this year, but needs to refine his swing, selectiveness and defense. Baltimore also obtained C David Freitas from the Athletics organization as the final return for RHP Jim Johnson.
-- Braves. Avoided arbitration by resigning RHP Jordan Walden for 1 year and $1.49 million.
-- Pirates. Resigned SS Clint Barmes for 2014 for what ESPN reported as $2 million. Pittsburgh has not confirmed a reported agreement with free-agent RHP Edinson Volquez for a year and $5 million. That's despite his 5.71 ERA last season. Perhaps the Pirates think he could benefit, as their 2013 starters did, from their advanced metrics that led to successful placement of fielders. If nothing else, Volquez is cheaper than resigning RHP A.J. Burnett. Perhaps the Bucs could use some of the difference toward a contract with free-agent 1B James Loney, which could run to $30 million for 3 years. Or they could trade for a less-expensive 1B such as Seattle's Justin Smoak.
* * *
Overall, Thursday was a good night for my fantasy teams.
Football. In my scoring-plus-yardage league playoffs, I picked up a sub-standard 17 points from Peyton Manning, plus 14 for Keenan Allen and 3 for Danny Woodhead to take a 141-87 lead into the weekend. I'll have six more players in action; my opponent will have seven. In my scoring-only league, Allen's two TDs gave me a 12-6 lead over my opponent, whose points came from Manning's TD passes. Better yet, I still have six players to go; he has just four.
Hockey. A rare good night in plus/minus helped me gain 3 points. The second-place team lost 2 points, so I cut the gap to 7 1/2 points.
Basketball. I'm still leading 7-1, trailing only in 3-pointers. To that end, I picked up the Suns' Gerald Green to replace the next-to-worthless J.R. Smith.
Monday, November 18, 2013
Dealing from strength
The baseball hot stove is heating up. In recent years, a lot of talk has been bubbling on the stove in Texas.
This winter's big issue is which middle infielder the Rangers will trade. Side issues are what can they get in return, how big the deal will be and how they might replace what they'll be giving up.
For my money, Texas would be giving up less by trading 2B Ian Kinsler than if they were to deal SS Elvis Andrus, swingman Jurickson Profar or Double-A 2B Rougned Odor. I'm leaving Double-A SS Luis Sardinas out of the mix because to me he seems the least advanced/talented of the group. But if a team would prefer him in a trade, I wouldn't hesitate to sell him high.
Kinsler is most expendable because he has virtually no upside, and all of the others have dynamic upsides.
I still think Andrus can hit for at least gap power, and his greatest value lies in his defense.
Profar didn't fare well in his spotty first pretty much whole season in the majors. He's not Mike Trout, but Profar will be an above-average fielder and a useful offensive player.
Odor is an overachieving scrapper. I'd say potentially a higher-end Jose Altuve.
Texas' No. 1 trade target seems to be Rays LHP David Price, the guy who kept the Rangers out of the playoffs in 2013.
The Rangers couldn't just trade Kinsler and call it a day. In order to trade him from an already shrunken offense, they'd have to make another deal to bring in a proven bat. It's quite likely that many of the scenarios Texas' front office has played out included Marlins OF Giancarlo aka Mike Stanton. Miami insists he is not on the market.
Thus, the Rangers might be more likely to look to free agency for a bat, and they won't find one with Stanton's raw power or upside. They'd probably have to settle for OF Carlos Beltran or 1B Justin Morneau.
Another possibility would be resigning RF Nelson Cruz, but he's also on the downside of his career. Or Texas could try to pry OF Jose Bautista away from the Blue Jays. It's an intricate puzzle. Every move seems to require a counter move.
We could see the Rangers make a honeycomb or matrix of deals. They believe -- as do a number of other organizations -- that they have nearly sure-fire prospects at just about every position.
From what I've seen of their farm system, it's not as dynamically productive as it has been during the past several years. But other organizations are enamored of the prospects from an organization that has brought along way more prospects than their own system has.
Another scenario is that Texas could be shut out in the trade and free agency markets, as it was for the most part a year ago. That didn't work too well last winter, so expect the Rangers to make even somewhat less advantageous deals than they'd like to have at least a chance of moving forward.
* * *
Just started reading a very interesting book that I've had for probably a decade. It's a SABR reprint of a 1925 book called "Batting," by F.C. Lane. I believe this was one of the bonus publications that SABR provides to its members along with its usual publications. As the editor of the old Baseball magazine, Lane interviewed many players during the first quarter of the 20th century. They're quoted with their opinions about batting.
One passage seems really relevant, given today's emphasis on defensive shifts. " ... In short, batting resolves to the brief but pointed epigram of Willie Keeler's when he said, 'Hit 'em where they ain't.' "'Where they ain't,' is something of a study in geography limited by the playing field and its immediate environs. There are certain zones of safety where the ball may be driven and allow the batter time to negotiate first, but these zones of safety can never be chartered, for they vary with the batter, with the opposing pitcher, with the ball field, even with the stage of the game."
That wasn't to say that teams hadn't developed shifts against certain hitters 90 or 100 years ago. Lane pointed out that opponents would overload the right side of their defense when lefty slugger Cy Williams came to bat. But clearly, today's computer capabilities weren't envisioned in 1925.
Even so, the idea of maximizing and customized defensive capabilities has been around for a century and it has taken most of that time to put the idea into effect.
* * *
Even before Monday night's game, I have won in one fantasy football league and lost in the other. I'm on a bit of a roll in the former, now 6-5 and I believe tied for fourth. The other league is going south, down to 4-7. Just 14 points from Peyton Manning, which just about equaled the total from the three RBs in my lineup. Bad day for Jordan Reed too.
* * *
My fantasy hockey team is pretty much static, still fourth by a comfortable margin, half a point out of third and not likely to finish first unless the current leader collapses totally. With plenty of room to grow with my goalies, I have made a trade offer to the owner who leads in GAA and save percentage. We'll see what happens there. By the way, the goalie I already picked up on waivers was Jean-Sebastien Giguere.
This winter's big issue is which middle infielder the Rangers will trade. Side issues are what can they get in return, how big the deal will be and how they might replace what they'll be giving up.
For my money, Texas would be giving up less by trading 2B Ian Kinsler than if they were to deal SS Elvis Andrus, swingman Jurickson Profar or Double-A 2B Rougned Odor. I'm leaving Double-A SS Luis Sardinas out of the mix because to me he seems the least advanced/talented of the group. But if a team would prefer him in a trade, I wouldn't hesitate to sell him high.
Kinsler is most expendable because he has virtually no upside, and all of the others have dynamic upsides.
I still think Andrus can hit for at least gap power, and his greatest value lies in his defense.
Profar didn't fare well in his spotty first pretty much whole season in the majors. He's not Mike Trout, but Profar will be an above-average fielder and a useful offensive player.
Odor is an overachieving scrapper. I'd say potentially a higher-end Jose Altuve.
Texas' No. 1 trade target seems to be Rays LHP David Price, the guy who kept the Rangers out of the playoffs in 2013.
The Rangers couldn't just trade Kinsler and call it a day. In order to trade him from an already shrunken offense, they'd have to make another deal to bring in a proven bat. It's quite likely that many of the scenarios Texas' front office has played out included Marlins OF Giancarlo aka Mike Stanton. Miami insists he is not on the market.
Thus, the Rangers might be more likely to look to free agency for a bat, and they won't find one with Stanton's raw power or upside. They'd probably have to settle for OF Carlos Beltran or 1B Justin Morneau.
Another possibility would be resigning RF Nelson Cruz, but he's also on the downside of his career. Or Texas could try to pry OF Jose Bautista away from the Blue Jays. It's an intricate puzzle. Every move seems to require a counter move.
We could see the Rangers make a honeycomb or matrix of deals. They believe -- as do a number of other organizations -- that they have nearly sure-fire prospects at just about every position.
From what I've seen of their farm system, it's not as dynamically productive as it has been during the past several years. But other organizations are enamored of the prospects from an organization that has brought along way more prospects than their own system has.
Another scenario is that Texas could be shut out in the trade and free agency markets, as it was for the most part a year ago. That didn't work too well last winter, so expect the Rangers to make even somewhat less advantageous deals than they'd like to have at least a chance of moving forward.
* * *
Just started reading a very interesting book that I've had for probably a decade. It's a SABR reprint of a 1925 book called "Batting," by F.C. Lane. I believe this was one of the bonus publications that SABR provides to its members along with its usual publications. As the editor of the old Baseball magazine, Lane interviewed many players during the first quarter of the 20th century. They're quoted with their opinions about batting.
One passage seems really relevant, given today's emphasis on defensive shifts. " ... In short, batting resolves to the brief but pointed epigram of Willie Keeler's when he said, 'Hit 'em where they ain't.' "'Where they ain't,' is something of a study in geography limited by the playing field and its immediate environs. There are certain zones of safety where the ball may be driven and allow the batter time to negotiate first, but these zones of safety can never be chartered, for they vary with the batter, with the opposing pitcher, with the ball field, even with the stage of the game."
That wasn't to say that teams hadn't developed shifts against certain hitters 90 or 100 years ago. Lane pointed out that opponents would overload the right side of their defense when lefty slugger Cy Williams came to bat. But clearly, today's computer capabilities weren't envisioned in 1925.
Even so, the idea of maximizing and customized defensive capabilities has been around for a century and it has taken most of that time to put the idea into effect.
* * *
Even before Monday night's game, I have won in one fantasy football league and lost in the other. I'm on a bit of a roll in the former, now 6-5 and I believe tied for fourth. The other league is going south, down to 4-7. Just 14 points from Peyton Manning, which just about equaled the total from the three RBs in my lineup. Bad day for Jordan Reed too.
* * *
My fantasy hockey team is pretty much static, still fourth by a comfortable margin, half a point out of third and not likely to finish first unless the current leader collapses totally. With plenty of room to grow with my goalies, I have made a trade offer to the owner who leads in GAA and save percentage. We'll see what happens there. By the way, the goalie I already picked up on waivers was Jean-Sebastien Giguere.
Thursday, November 14, 2013
Fantasy hockey
This season I decided, pretty much last minute, to get into a fantasy hockey league for the first time. That's because I'm covering a lot more hockey this year after covering virtually none during the truncated 2013 (there was no 2012- in front of it) season.
In the wee hours of Oct. 1, I went to espn.com and found a league that was drafting early that morning, maybe 5 a.m., and had 9 of 10 spots taken. I clicked the appropriate links to allow me to join, looked around for how I could customize the draft list, had trouble finding what I wanted, decided I was too tired to make credible moves anyway and went to bed.
When I woke up, fairly early but not at 5 a.m., I saw my new team's roster. Lots of guys I'd never heard of. And that wasn't a bad thing because I'm trying to familiarize myself with the players around the league. I didn't even know a whole lot about the Stars. Their roster has changed a lot in the last two seasons.
Anyway, my autopicked team quickly plunged to the bottom of the league. I found that out the next time I checked, a few days later. With a lot of moves, a couple of trades that didn't go through but pointed me in the right direction and more attention paid to the league, I've moved up to third place. But it isn't a good place. I'm closer to seventh or eighth place than I am to the two teams ahead of me.
Here are some tips I've learned for myself that I can pass on to you.
1. Avoid signing up at the last minute, not customizing the website's draft list and above all else, having your team autopicked. I'm pretty sure I missed a run of goalies somewhere that would have led me to draft at least one higher than their autopick value indicated.
2. Learn what the categories mean. I saw PIM, but wasn't sure whether having a lot of penalty minutes was good or bad. (It's good.) But what the heck is ATOI? Nothing like Bill James' Favorite Toy, but instead Average Time on Ice. It's an equalizer to help give defensemen more value. There's also a category called PPP. I figured it had something to do with power plays, but I wasn't sure what. Power Play Points. Again, it can be an equalizer for defensemen. They're not going to score many goals, even on the power play, but if they spend a lot of time on the ice at the point on the power play, they're going to get assists when a teammate tips in or gets in the way of a slap shot.
3. Follow the action daily, and make sure you check in early enough to make moves. Unlike the fantasy football and even baseball leagues I'm in where the lineup changes are weekly, you can have a new lineup every day. It doesn't do you any good to have all of your fantasy bench on teams that are playing that night, while your marginally better or even stud players' teams are taking the night off. Conversely, if you don't switch back the next night, you might miss out on some good performances from players you sat the night before.
4. Don't overreact to short-term problems. This is one I should have remembered from any other fantasy sport. I spent the first couple of weeks picking up goalies who had played one good game to replace established players who might have given up 4 or 5 goals the night before.
As a result of No. 4, I still have just 4 points in 3 categories from my goalies. I'm trying to rotate them in and out, in accordance with point No. 3 above. If all three happen to be playing, which sometimes happens on Tuesdays or other busy nights, I try to pick the two hot hands or the two with the easiest opponents. That's still a bit of a guessing game. But my GAA and save percentage are dropping slowly, to the point where I might even pick up 1 or 2 points in the next week or so. Hockey is not the marathon that the baseball season, but at least this season it's a half-marathon.
* * *
Thursdays are a busy fantasy day this year. They start with a reminder from an office football pool I'm in from my daughter Diana's former employer. I make those picks, with the spreads. I'm pretty much in the middle of the pack, one game under .500 for the season. I need to make up seven games in seven weeks to get into the money. If I could do that, it would also be more likely that I'd win a weekly prize of almost twice my investment for the season.
After that, I check out any waiver claims I made after the weekend's games, plus injury reports on my players and bye-week information to see if I have to make any changes in either of my fantasy football lineups. This week, the Rams are off so I replaced Greg Zuerlein with Matt Bryant and Rob Bironas. I also picked up Andre Brown on waivers in one league. He replaced a wide receiver as my flex player, with two other pretty good RBs in that league. In the other league, I culled through the scrapheap of RBs to find a replacement for Arian Foster and came up with Bernard Pearce. He's just a backup. I elevated D'Angelo Williams to the starting lineup in that league, which counts only scoring and not yardage.
As with the office pool, I'm mediocre in both fantasy football leagues. 5-5 in one, 4-6 in the other, but still with playoff chances if I manage my lineups correctly or get lucky. Peyton Manning's gimpy ankle has been carrying me in one league; Matt Stafford is my man in the scoring-only league.
This season, I'm now also somewhat micromanaging my fantasy hockey team. On waivers, I picked up Anaheim defenseman Francois Beauchemin to put me on a good road, as well as Ottawa forward Clarke MacArhur, whom I hope has Kent or even Douglas as his middle name. Today's lineup changes put Beauchemin in for Pittsburgh's Matt Niskanen, Boston defenseman Torey Krug as my utility player in place of Ottawa forward Milan Michalak and Islanders goalie for Toronto's James Reimer.
Time to eat. More, including baseball, to come soon.
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