Bad news for the Diamondbacks. LHP Patrick Corbin will not be pitching in next weekend's two-game season-opening series in Australia -- and maybe not for quite a while after that. He has been diagnosed with a damaged ulnar collateral ligament.
For their opponents, the Dodgers, OF Carl Crawford will be on paternity leave. He and RHP Dan Haren will not go to Australia.
Corbin left Saturday's start -- expected to be his last before he would pitch the opening game Saturday, March 22 -- in the seventh inning because of a stiff forearm. The UCL is the ligament replaced in Tommy John surgery, and forearm pain is a symptom associated with TJ surgery, so you'll probably want to have a Plan B to replace Corbin on your fantasy team.
And LHP Jonathan Niese, the Mets' planned Opening Day starter, left Sunday's game because of elbow discomfort.
Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker has a tight forearm. By now, you should know the progression: tight forearm > sore elbow > Dr. James Andrews > Tommy John surgery. Parker is scheduled to see Dr. Andrews Monday. Oakland's rotation also will be without RHP A.J. Griffin, who has a strained muscle in his arm and won't throw at all for three weeks. He could return to the rotation in May. An MRI exam showed no structural damage in his elbow. LHP Tommy Milone could be a reasonable replacement for one of them -- but RHP Jesse Chavez, who hasn't been effective even as a reliever, is currently penciled in as the No. 5 starter. Look for a trade, especially if the prospect of Parker and Griffin's return appears bleak a month from now.
Braves RHPs Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are expected to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss this season. That could put additional pressure on Mike Minor to return quickly despite a sore shoulder.
The Blue Jays expect RHP Casey Janssen, their closer, to be ready for Opening Day. He hasn't pitched in a game this spring because of a sore shoulder, but he is expected to resume throwing soon.
Tigers SS Jose Iglesias will begin the season on the disabled list because of a stress reaction in both shins. An ESPN report indicated that Iglesias has a stress fracture, which could keep him out until mid-season. The candidates to take his place are Hernan Perez, Eugenio Suarez and Danny Worth. A few days ago, I speculated that SS Jimmy Rollins, who apparently has outworn his welcome in Philadelphia, could be a trade target for Detroit. SS Freddy Galvis was in the Phillies' starting lineup Sunday.
The Phils have their own pitching injury problems. LHP Cole Hamels, sidelined by a sore shoulder, tossed 27 pitches in the bullpen Sunday, and could have another 'pen session Wednesday. LHP Cliff Lee, who pitched five scoreless innings against the Red Sox Saturday, could be Philadelphia's Opening Day starter.
Reds RHP Homer Bailey was scratched from Saturday's start because of a strained right groin muscle.
Could it get to the point where the majors use pitching machines, the way they do for T-ball graduates?
Remember when Angels OF Josh Hamilton was on crutches because of a strained calf muscle, but would be playing in a couple of weeks? Well, he still isn't playing. He's scheduled to make his exhibition debut Monday. He's saying he could be ready for Opening Day, but I'm not buying that.
Orioles 3B Manny Machado hasn't run in six days because of scar tissue from off-season surgery on his left knee. He said he could be ready to open the season, but don't expect that either.
Through Saturday, Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki hadn't played since being hit in the left calf by a pitch Wednesday. His injury history is cause for concern.
Playing in Panama, Mariano Rivera's native land, the Bronx Bombers were Bronx Bummers Saturday against four Marlins pitchers (of which you've probably heard of only RHP Steve Cishek, who pitched the sixth inning). They completed a no-hitter, against a lineup somewhat short of what New York will put on the field this season. Oh, and Miami won 5-0. Rod Carew Stadium, built in 1999, is much more luxurious than the stadium in Panama City where I saw the '71 Pirates, eventual World Series champions, lose to Pedro Ramos and the Panamanian All-Stars.
Marlins SS Rafael Furcal has a tight left hamstring.
* * *
Basketball. I covered UFC 171 Saturday night, which meant I finished writing after 1 a.m. and didn't get home until 3. Slept in this morning, but went with my game plan of picking up player(s) whose team is in action Sunday to help in whatever categories I needed for this last week of regular-season competition. I came up with Miles Plumlee (the one from Phoenix), who can get some of the rebounds and points I need, with a reasonable field goal percentage. I "signed" the free agent, and dropped Amar'e Stoudemire, because the Knicks aren't playing today. Then I looked at the lineup, and Plumlee was listed on my bench. Then I realized that it was the lineup for Monday. Because some games already had started by noon CDT, the lineup was locked until tomorrow.
Could be a case of snooze, I lose.
So I will have Plumlee Monday, and may be able to reacquire Stoudemire, who won't play again until Wednesday anyway.
This week's competition is 4-4. I trail by .0022 in field goal percentage, three 3-pointers, 27 rebounds and 21 points as I write this. I also lead by just five assists and six steals. I have seven active players to my opponent's six. My best players going are probably Chris Bosh and Serge Ibaka; it scares me a bit to be playing against James Harden.
Right now, I have the Duke-Virginia game on the TV. How many Plumlees are there, anyway?
* * *
Hockey. It's still kind of a back-and-forth situation, where I gain a point and then lose it back. Still mired in third place with 65 points. Oh, at the moment 65.5 because I picked up half a point in ATOI. On a daily basis, that's almost totally dependent on having more defensemen than forwards, and on not having someone get hurt early in a game.
The league leaders remain out of reach at 89. The second-place team is at 76, but I don't think totally out of reach because his skaters have played 76 games more than mine so he'll run out of games sooner than I will. I'm more concerned that the fourth-place team, currently at 56, could catch me.
I am really beginning to hate fantasy goalies. Steve Mason shut out the Penguins Saturday, and gave up only one goal in the first period Sunday. So I turned on the Flyers-Pittsburgh game, and in the Penguins' first rush up the ice they scored their third goal of the game against Mason. I also saw him in person giving up four goals in about four heartbeats against the Stars, which prompted me to drop him for a while. When Mason hasn't been on my roster, he has been spectacular. And of course, Tim Thomas won a game when I didn't start him, then gave up two third-period goals in a loss Friday when I did start him. Don't get me started on Ben Scrivens or any of the other half-dozen or dozen goalies who have disgraced my roster but played well when they weren't on my team. Hmmm. Let me check on Martin Brodeur again ... His save percentage is no better than the Texas Puckin Penguins', but his GAA is 2.50. I'll have to cogitate on this one.
Showing posts with label Jarrod Parker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jarrod Parker. Show all posts
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Thursday, February 6, 2014
How Homer Bailey (Mike Minor?) could be like Jarrod Washburn
In 2003, when Lenny Pappano hired me for the opening of the dear departed fantasybaseballscout.com web site, one of the features we advertised was "How to Find a Cheap Starting Pitcher Who Can Pile Up the Wins."
I had done similar research a year earlier that pointed to Jarrod Washburn. He improved from 11-10 in 2001 to 18-6 as a 27-year-old in '02.
Thus was born, after I joined fantasybaseballscout.com, the Jarrod Washburn Award. The pre-season projected winner for 2003 was Jason Schmidt, who lived up to the spirit of the award by improving from 13-8 to 17-5.
There were other successes during the lifetime of fantasybaseballscout.com.
I'm reviving the Jarrod Washburn Award for this blog, and I'll post revivals of other remnants from fantasybaseballscout.com before this season begins.
Before I get into the methodology, here's the bottom line. The Jarrod Washburn Award for 2014 is ... drum roll ... Homer Bailey.
Honorable mention to Mike Minor and Alex Cobb. I'll say it here now. Even though the research gives the edge to Bailey, I wouldn't be surprised if Minor has a better year. And I'll be willing to bet you can pick up Minor for less money. (According to Sporting News Fantasy Source, you can. It lists Bailey at $21 and Minor at $19. Also, this is not an endorsement of the publication. It just happens to be the first one I picked up. There might or might not be others, for comparison purposes. And if the setbacks I've encountered go away, I'll have my own dollar values by the end of this month.)
Neither of them, nor Cobb at $15, is cheap or inexpensive.
Bailey's price is inflated by memories of his two no-hitters. To date he has been too inconsistent, too feast-or-famine, to be considered a top-tier pitcher.
To find one of my candidates for the award at a more reasonable price, you might look to Jarrod Parker at $10 (which sounds like such a bargain that you probably wouldn't get him at that price). He also has the magical first name of Jarrod.
To begin the process, I listed all of the pitchers who won between 11 and 13 games in the majors last season. Consider them players who have had a measure of success in the majors, but not necessarily "pile up the wins."
This list started with 33 pitchers. But among those were true stars who didn't win a whole lot in '13: Yu Darvish, Ubaldo Jimenez, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez. By eliminating any pitcher who had won more than 13 in any major league season, the list shrunk to 13.
The other factors I use:
-- Injury history
-- Height
-- Age
-- Last year's opponent batting average
-- Last year's strikeout/walk ratio
-- Team prospects
The injury history is important for two reasons. 1) A pitcher who has worked to return from an injury can have the mental makeup needed for success. 2) A pitcher who hasn't been hurt yet is going to have arm trouble at some point.
Height is important because scouts prefer bigger, seemingly more durable pitchers. One of the many things I learned from John Benson is that the bias toward tall pitchers, especially tall lefties, is justified. Sorry about that, Sonny Gray.
Age is important. Various research has shown that ballplayers, both hitters and pitchers, tend to peak at about 27 years old. Even a bit younger for pitchers, because the woods are full of pitchers who never had an age 27 season before they were injured. Today, I probably would have overlooked 30-year-old Jason Schmidt, though perhaps he was just vastly superior in the other indicators. I don't remember.
Team prospects are important because it's a lot harder to win with a losing team. This qualifier was subjective. I considered "good" teams to be those that have been in the playoffs during the last couple of seasons or seem likely to be this year (I'm talking to you, Angels).
Opponent batting average and strikeout/walk ratio are the two underlying statistics that I think show how well a pitcher is actually throwing, much more than wins or ERA or saves or strikeouts alone.
Here's a breakdown of the 13 pitchers in the study, in order of the number of positive categories. In case of ties, I've looked at specific categories to see if one pitcher has at least a subjective advantage over another.
1. Reds RHP Homer Bailey, the only one with a positive in all 7 indicators
2. Braves LHP Mike Minor, 6 positives
3. Rays RHP Alex Cobb, 6
4. Indians RHP Corey Kluber, 5
5. Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker, 5
6. Marlins RHP Jose Fernandez, 4
7. Athletics LHP Tommy Milone, 4
8. Mets RHP Dillon Gee, 4
9. Orioles LHP Miguel Gonzalez, 4
10. Red Sox LHP Felix Doubront, 4
11. Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson, 4-minus because he'll miss at least half of the season
12. Brewers RHP Wily Peralta, Statistical Anomaly No. 1, 3
13. Padres LHP Eric Stults, Statistical Anomaly No. 2, 3
I did some additional research on the 34-year-old Stults to see if there's something in him that suddenly made him a winner. I'm still not convinced that even his limited success last season was a fluke. He probably won't win even 11 games again.
By the way, with the number of wins declining for league leaders, I'm considering a change next year to consider pitchers with between 10 and 12 wins for the previous season, and no season with more than 12. Minor was the only pitcher with 13 who survived the cut for this year. Bailey and Cobb each won 11 in 2013, and Parker 12.
* * *
While visiting baseball-reference.com for some historical information for this post, I saw an "in memoriam" section that included Ralph Kiner, who died Thursday, and two other players I followed for a time. Two other players whose career didn't get them a wire-service obituary. I saw the late Jophery Brown (died Jan. 11) pitch in his only major league game in 1968, and later saw him as a stunt man in many Hollywood feature movies. Never met him, but I did meet the late Tim Hosley (died Jan. 21). I remember playing in a poker game with him and some of his Toledo Mud Hens teammates at their hotel in Rochester in 1972.
I followed to a very good biography of Brown from SABR, and to an obituary notice from a California funeral home. And here's a good posthumous biography of Hosley. Not sure what he did after his playing days, but his Wikipedia entry indicates that he played in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association.
What I take from all of this is related to this line from the obituary notice: "Enjoy the little things in life...for one day you'll look back and realize they were the big things." Or even things at all. And that the lives of the players we follow, big-time and small-time, aren't all that much different from any or ours. We live, we love, we find a way to survive financially, and eventually we don't live any more. Enjoy it while we can.
I had done similar research a year earlier that pointed to Jarrod Washburn. He improved from 11-10 in 2001 to 18-6 as a 27-year-old in '02.
Thus was born, after I joined fantasybaseballscout.com, the Jarrod Washburn Award. The pre-season projected winner for 2003 was Jason Schmidt, who lived up to the spirit of the award by improving from 13-8 to 17-5.
There were other successes during the lifetime of fantasybaseballscout.com.
I'm reviving the Jarrod Washburn Award for this blog, and I'll post revivals of other remnants from fantasybaseballscout.com before this season begins.
Before I get into the methodology, here's the bottom line. The Jarrod Washburn Award for 2014 is ... drum roll ... Homer Bailey.
Honorable mention to Mike Minor and Alex Cobb. I'll say it here now. Even though the research gives the edge to Bailey, I wouldn't be surprised if Minor has a better year. And I'll be willing to bet you can pick up Minor for less money. (According to Sporting News Fantasy Source, you can. It lists Bailey at $21 and Minor at $19. Also, this is not an endorsement of the publication. It just happens to be the first one I picked up. There might or might not be others, for comparison purposes. And if the setbacks I've encountered go away, I'll have my own dollar values by the end of this month.)
Neither of them, nor Cobb at $15, is cheap or inexpensive.
Bailey's price is inflated by memories of his two no-hitters. To date he has been too inconsistent, too feast-or-famine, to be considered a top-tier pitcher.
To find one of my candidates for the award at a more reasonable price, you might look to Jarrod Parker at $10 (which sounds like such a bargain that you probably wouldn't get him at that price). He also has the magical first name of Jarrod.
To begin the process, I listed all of the pitchers who won between 11 and 13 games in the majors last season. Consider them players who have had a measure of success in the majors, but not necessarily "pile up the wins."
This list started with 33 pitchers. But among those were true stars who didn't win a whole lot in '13: Yu Darvish, Ubaldo Jimenez, James Shields, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez. By eliminating any pitcher who had won more than 13 in any major league season, the list shrunk to 13.
The other factors I use:
-- Injury history
-- Height
-- Age
-- Last year's opponent batting average
-- Last year's strikeout/walk ratio
-- Team prospects
The injury history is important for two reasons. 1) A pitcher who has worked to return from an injury can have the mental makeup needed for success. 2) A pitcher who hasn't been hurt yet is going to have arm trouble at some point.
Height is important because scouts prefer bigger, seemingly more durable pitchers. One of the many things I learned from John Benson is that the bias toward tall pitchers, especially tall lefties, is justified. Sorry about that, Sonny Gray.
Age is important. Various research has shown that ballplayers, both hitters and pitchers, tend to peak at about 27 years old. Even a bit younger for pitchers, because the woods are full of pitchers who never had an age 27 season before they were injured. Today, I probably would have overlooked 30-year-old Jason Schmidt, though perhaps he was just vastly superior in the other indicators. I don't remember.
Team prospects are important because it's a lot harder to win with a losing team. This qualifier was subjective. I considered "good" teams to be those that have been in the playoffs during the last couple of seasons or seem likely to be this year (I'm talking to you, Angels).
Opponent batting average and strikeout/walk ratio are the two underlying statistics that I think show how well a pitcher is actually throwing, much more than wins or ERA or saves or strikeouts alone.
Here's a breakdown of the 13 pitchers in the study, in order of the number of positive categories. In case of ties, I've looked at specific categories to see if one pitcher has at least a subjective advantage over another.
1. Reds RHP Homer Bailey, the only one with a positive in all 7 indicators
2. Braves LHP Mike Minor, 6 positives
3. Rays RHP Alex Cobb, 6
4. Indians RHP Corey Kluber, 5
5. Athletics RHP Jarrod Parker, 5
6. Marlins RHP Jose Fernandez, 4
7. Athletics LHP Tommy Milone, 4
8. Mets RHP Dillon Gee, 4
9. Orioles LHP Miguel Gonzalez, 4
10. Red Sox LHP Felix Doubront, 4
11. Rays RHP Jeremy Hellickson, 4-minus because he'll miss at least half of the season
12. Brewers RHP Wily Peralta, Statistical Anomaly No. 1, 3
13. Padres LHP Eric Stults, Statistical Anomaly No. 2, 3
I did some additional research on the 34-year-old Stults to see if there's something in him that suddenly made him a winner. I'm still not convinced that even his limited success last season was a fluke. He probably won't win even 11 games again.
By the way, with the number of wins declining for league leaders, I'm considering a change next year to consider pitchers with between 10 and 12 wins for the previous season, and no season with more than 12. Minor was the only pitcher with 13 who survived the cut for this year. Bailey and Cobb each won 11 in 2013, and Parker 12.
* * *
While visiting baseball-reference.com for some historical information for this post, I saw an "in memoriam" section that included Ralph Kiner, who died Thursday, and two other players I followed for a time. Two other players whose career didn't get them a wire-service obituary. I saw the late Jophery Brown (died Jan. 11) pitch in his only major league game in 1968, and later saw him as a stunt man in many Hollywood feature movies. Never met him, but I did meet the late Tim Hosley (died Jan. 21). I remember playing in a poker game with him and some of his Toledo Mud Hens teammates at their hotel in Rochester in 1972.
I followed to a very good biography of Brown from SABR, and to an obituary notice from a California funeral home. And here's a good posthumous biography of Hosley. Not sure what he did after his playing days, but his Wikipedia entry indicates that he played in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association.
What I take from all of this is related to this line from the obituary notice: "Enjoy the little things in life...for one day you'll look back and realize they were the big things." Or even things at all. And that the lives of the players we follow, big-time and small-time, aren't all that much different from any or ours. We live, we love, we find a way to survive financially, and eventually we don't live any more. Enjoy it while we can.
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
So much for calm before the meetings
I take back what I wrote about teams' being likely to coast into the winter meetings. Now I'm wondering whether there will be any deals left to make.
The Athletics clearly are leaving nothing to chance to alleviate their long dry spell in playoff series, epitomized by Derek Jeter and Jeremy Giambi.
After signing free-agent LHP Scott Kamir to a reported 2-year, $22-million contract, Oakland
-- Traded surplus 2B Jemile Weeks and a player to be named to the Orioles for RHP Jim Johnson, the major league leader in saves each of the last two seasons.
-- As insurance or at least a setup man, acquired RHP Luke Gregerson from the Padres for OF Seth Smith.
-- Dealt young OF Michael Choice and infielder Chris Bostick to the division-rival Rangers for OF Craig Gentry and Quadruple-A RHP Josh Lindblom.
Before I go further, let me interpret what this means for the A's.
Their pitching, top to bottom, could be the best in baseball next season. This is an organization that hasn't made spectacular moves in recent years, but has added incrementally for great improvement. The 2013 season could have been called "Moneyball II"; the coming year could be "Moneyball III."
$11 million a year for Kazmir might seem steep, but he made a major comeback for the Indians this year, and was even better than his 10-9 record down the stretch -- 7-5 with a 3.06 ERA in his last 18 starts. He'll be starting home games in a better pitchers' park.
Can Kazmir, a multi-year All-Star, head a rotation? Possibly, or Oakland might strike paydirt with a young pitcher such as RHPs Sonny Gray, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Daniel Straily or LHPs Tommy Milone or Brett Anderson. Parker and Griffin were very tough in the latter stages of 2013, much better than I would have anticipated after seeing them in Double-A. Anderson could be bait in still another trade -- for infield defense? even more bullpen help? left-handed power?
At 30, Kazmir should be more mature than he was in his early 20s. His arrival most likely means that 40-year-old RHP Bartolo Colon, an 18-game winner in '13, is free to sign elsewhere as a free agent.
The dependence on young starting pitcher also could blow up in the Athletics' faces. But I don't think so in this case.
Gentry, who can fly, would bring improved defense in a park with a large outfield. He could play center field, or left field -- with OF Yoenis Cespedes available as a DH.
Probably more to come later tonight, after I'm finished with Bobcats-Mavericks.
The Athletics clearly are leaving nothing to chance to alleviate their long dry spell in playoff series, epitomized by Derek Jeter and Jeremy Giambi.
After signing free-agent LHP Scott Kamir to a reported 2-year, $22-million contract, Oakland
-- Traded surplus 2B Jemile Weeks and a player to be named to the Orioles for RHP Jim Johnson, the major league leader in saves each of the last two seasons.
-- As insurance or at least a setup man, acquired RHP Luke Gregerson from the Padres for OF Seth Smith.
-- Dealt young OF Michael Choice and infielder Chris Bostick to the division-rival Rangers for OF Craig Gentry and Quadruple-A RHP Josh Lindblom.
Before I go further, let me interpret what this means for the A's.
Their pitching, top to bottom, could be the best in baseball next season. This is an organization that hasn't made spectacular moves in recent years, but has added incrementally for great improvement. The 2013 season could have been called "Moneyball II"; the coming year could be "Moneyball III."
$11 million a year for Kazmir might seem steep, but he made a major comeback for the Indians this year, and was even better than his 10-9 record down the stretch -- 7-5 with a 3.06 ERA in his last 18 starts. He'll be starting home games in a better pitchers' park.
Can Kazmir, a multi-year All-Star, head a rotation? Possibly, or Oakland might strike paydirt with a young pitcher such as RHPs Sonny Gray, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Daniel Straily or LHPs Tommy Milone or Brett Anderson. Parker and Griffin were very tough in the latter stages of 2013, much better than I would have anticipated after seeing them in Double-A. Anderson could be bait in still another trade -- for infield defense? even more bullpen help? left-handed power?
At 30, Kazmir should be more mature than he was in his early 20s. His arrival most likely means that 40-year-old RHP Bartolo Colon, an 18-game winner in '13, is free to sign elsewhere as a free agent.
The dependence on young starting pitcher also could blow up in the Athletics' faces. But I don't think so in this case.
Gentry, who can fly, would bring improved defense in a park with a large outfield. He could play center field, or left field -- with OF Yoenis Cespedes available as a DH.
Probably more to come later tonight, after I'm finished with Bobcats-Mavericks.
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