There's not much new that's concrete in baseball right now.
The Angels finalized a 1-year contract with former ancient Mariner Raul Ibanez, who could DH and play a little bit of outfield.
The Cubs agreed to a 1-year contract with RHP Jose Veras, who would be their 2014 closer. Now there's not a lot to close on the North Side, and Veras seems likely to blow a number of the opportunities he gets. Expect him to join RHP Carlos Marmol and the ranks of other failed closers for the Cubs.
I'm working on some projects to produce some quantitative fantasy baseball information. I hope you can see at least one piece before the year ends.
* * *
Basketball. Carmelo Anthony didn't play Friday night, and isn't going to play Saturday. I still can fill all 10 spots in my lineup.
I had set up my lineup for Thursday, and neglected to change it for Friday. Thus, I left on my bench Victor Oladipo and his 16 points and 11 assists.
Through Thursday, I had been tied in blocked shots as part of a 5-2-1 lead. I figured Serge Ibaka would help me in that area, and sure enough, he blocked three Friday and helped me take the lead in that category. However, my lead is down to 5-3, partly because Anthony didn't play. But my 16-point deficit coincides exactly with Oladipo's 16 points that didn't count for me. We'll see what happens Saturday.
* * *
Hockey. I was buried under an Avalanche tonight. Colorado lost 7-2 to the Blackhawks. Jan Hejda and Erik Johnson were both -4, and Nathan MacKinnon was -3. That was 11 of my minus-15 for the night. That dropped me down to sixth in plus/minus at plus-19. Somehow, the Avalanche's and my, Paul Stastny broke even. Now I have four individuals on my team with season plus/minuses of 19 or more, but I haven't had those players in my lineup at the right time. Mikko Koivu also has been killing me; he was -3 tonight. In addition, Jean-Sebastien Giguere gave up seven goals in two periods. That's a 10.50 goals against average. And the only thing I can say about his save percentage is that at least it isn't less than 0.
My plan is to divest myself of some Colorado players, and Koivu if I can. I'm a little light in forwards. Despite the debacle with Hejda and Johnson, my defense is pretty good. I'm even using a defenseman as a utility player. But I had Dallas' Brenden Dillon on my bench. He was plus-2 Friday, and he took a minor penalty. Another problem with my lineup was that my lineup totaled 0 penalty minutes. How is that even possible? I probably need a fighter.
Somehow I escaped the night losing a mere two points in the standings.
It's too late to make coherent moves tonight. I got home from the Predators-Stars game at about 1.
Showing posts with label Jan Hejda. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jan Hejda. Show all posts
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Friday, December 6, 2013
The last of the 10-year contracts?
Three thoughts about the reported agreement between the Mariners and free-agent 2B Robinson Cano.
1. It's a great deal for Cano and his agent, even though it would be for $65 million less than the original asking price. I guess it's like buying a mansion. What's $6 million a year when you're getting $24 mill? I hope the deal will also bring good things to young people, in Seattle or the Dominican Republic from Cano's affordable largesse.
2. It signifies that the Mariners now could become a large-market team -- competing with the Yankees, Red Sox and possibly Dodgers-Angels-Rangers (with big TV money anticipated) -- for top-dollar free agents. The other direction Seattle could take is toward the financial problems that beset Tom Hicks in Texas after the ill-fated A-Rod signing didn't work. I think there's plenty of Japanese money available, so I don't think that would happen to the Mariners.
3. I wonder when we'll see the end of 9-10-year contracts. My guess is after A-Rod's contract plays out. (By the way, shouldn't we be hearing something about his hearing pretty soon? Not sure why that should be taking 9 months when most player hearings are over within 9 days.) The easiest prediction from the Cano signing is that there's no way it -- like similar deals for Albert Pujols, the aforementioned A-Rod and probably Prince Fielder, and going all the way back to Wayne Garland nearly 40 years ago -- will come close to paying off in results equal to even half of its value.
Let's look at the particulars. Cano is already 31. He wouldn't get any better in any circumstances. He can't equal in Seattle the offensive statistics from playing home game at Yankee Stadium with its favorable left-handed-hitting setup. He'll have 9 years of not worrying about playing for a contract and financial security. Actually, 10. If he's still playing in 2023, it would be on a going-into-retirement cruise.
Can Cano help the Mariners in the short run? No question. He's filling what has become an abyss since Dustin Ackley didn't work out at second base. Cano could probably reach 20 homers for a few years. But when his range at second base inevitably declines, he'd become a below-average left fielder or first baseman or DH. At that point, the best hope would be to have some other needy team take him off the Mariners' hands, saving Seattle a fraction of the money it would owe Cano.
Lots of activity in New York. The Yankees apparently also are losing OF Curtis Granderson's left-handed bat. The New York Post reported that he agreed to a 4-year contract with the Mets, no doubt for far less than he could have received even 2 years ago. Granderson is 32, coming off an injury-plagued 2013 and struggles against left-handers.
Also, the Yankees retained RHP Hiroki Kuroda for 2014. The busy Post reported the contract is for $16 million, with a $250,000 incentive for innings pitched. Kuroda has been mostly reliable in his two seasons in the Bronx. He has exceeded 200 innings in each of the last three years. But ... he has two winning records in six seasons in the U.S., will be 39 next season and didn't win a game after Aug. 12. (I know that too well; he was on one of my fantasy teams.) He's an exception to the rule that the ancient Yankees are getting somewhat younger.
Another situation I've commented on without a follow-up is 1B/DH Paul Konerko's re-signing. I applaud his or his agent's foresight in structuring his 1-year contract so he's paid $1.5 million in 2014, with $1 million deferred until 2015. That will make his transition out of the game much smoother. It's not likely that Konerko would suffer through another poor season in '15 -- barring an unlikely late-in-life resurgence such as Ted Williams and Stan Musial had in 1959 after bad years in '58. It's no coincidence that White Sox play-by-play man Ken Harrelson's contract expires after 2015, and he already has curtailed his travel schedule. In 2012, Sox color man Steve Stone made a reported $600,000 (with a lot of broadcast experience). There would seem to be room for Konerko in the broadcast booth, or even making a few hundred grand as a coach.
Marlins fans! Don't make World Series plans yet, but Miami did sign SS Rafael Furcal to a 1-year contract. He's expected to move to second base, with former 2B Donovan Solano or a player to be acquired at third. Apparently, the 36-year-old Furcal no longer is strong enough to unseat Adeiny Hechavarria at shortstop, especially after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March and missing all of last season. The South Florida Sun-Sentinel indicated that Furcal's contract is for $3.5 million, plus incentives. We'll find out during spring training whether he'll be ready by opening day. But really, does this look like a contending infield? Wait! I'm forgetting 1B Logan Morrison, who hasn't batted even .250 in any of the last three seasons.
* * *
Football. Both of my teams were off to a good start Thursday night, with Texans TE Garrett Graham scoring a touchdown and gaining 72 receiving yards. So I took early leads of 13-0 in my scoring-plus-yardage league (first week of a two-week consolation playoff semifinal) and 6-0 in Week 14 of my scoring-only league. In that one, I'm still projected for a tie against one of the two teams tied for first place a game ahead of me.
* * *
Hockey. Important key: The downside of having a lot of players, especially forwards, in your lineup, is that they can drag you down, especially by your plus/minus and ATOI.
I filled my starting lineup with 15 skaters and 2 goalies -- and lost 3 1/2 points. Where I was within 2 points of second place, I dropped to 5 back overnight. Here's what happened. The two goalies' team played but they didn't. I read a note saying that Jean-Sebastien Giguere would start for Colorado Friday, but forgot that it was Thursday. The 15 skaters totaled 0 goals and 2 assists, and were minus-6. In addition, defensemen Jan Hejda and Victor Hedman both left early because of injuries, hurting my ATOI even more. They join Henrik Zetterberg on my injured list. Also, I have to get the minus-9 Jason Spezza from the loser Senators off my roster. Clarke MacArthur can stay for the time being.
* * *
Basketball. Important key. If you have a guy on your roster who isn't playing tonight, but is tomorrow, be sure to put him into an open spot in your starting lineup instead of a player who is inactive for the next 2 days -- even if he's a franchise player.
I didn't follow one of my other important keys Wednesday. I didn't set my lineup until nearly 7 p.m. EDT. By that time, the Cavaliers' game already had started, so I couldn't get Anderson Varejao into my lineup. I could have put him in the lineup Tuesday (see Important key under hockey), guarding against the possibility of getting around to setting the lineup too late. I could have used his 18 points, 13 rebounds and assorted assists, blocks and steals. I made up somewhat for that lost production Thursday, regaining a 5-3 lead for the week.
For now, I'm off to find a hockey forward to replace Jason Spezza.
1. It's a great deal for Cano and his agent, even though it would be for $65 million less than the original asking price. I guess it's like buying a mansion. What's $6 million a year when you're getting $24 mill? I hope the deal will also bring good things to young people, in Seattle or the Dominican Republic from Cano's affordable largesse.
2. It signifies that the Mariners now could become a large-market team -- competing with the Yankees, Red Sox and possibly Dodgers-Angels-Rangers (with big TV money anticipated) -- for top-dollar free agents. The other direction Seattle could take is toward the financial problems that beset Tom Hicks in Texas after the ill-fated A-Rod signing didn't work. I think there's plenty of Japanese money available, so I don't think that would happen to the Mariners.
3. I wonder when we'll see the end of 9-10-year contracts. My guess is after A-Rod's contract plays out. (By the way, shouldn't we be hearing something about his hearing pretty soon? Not sure why that should be taking 9 months when most player hearings are over within 9 days.) The easiest prediction from the Cano signing is that there's no way it -- like similar deals for Albert Pujols, the aforementioned A-Rod and probably Prince Fielder, and going all the way back to Wayne Garland nearly 40 years ago -- will come close to paying off in results equal to even half of its value.
Let's look at the particulars. Cano is already 31. He wouldn't get any better in any circumstances. He can't equal in Seattle the offensive statistics from playing home game at Yankee Stadium with its favorable left-handed-hitting setup. He'll have 9 years of not worrying about playing for a contract and financial security. Actually, 10. If he's still playing in 2023, it would be on a going-into-retirement cruise.
Can Cano help the Mariners in the short run? No question. He's filling what has become an abyss since Dustin Ackley didn't work out at second base. Cano could probably reach 20 homers for a few years. But when his range at second base inevitably declines, he'd become a below-average left fielder or first baseman or DH. At that point, the best hope would be to have some other needy team take him off the Mariners' hands, saving Seattle a fraction of the money it would owe Cano.
Lots of activity in New York. The Yankees apparently also are losing OF Curtis Granderson's left-handed bat. The New York Post reported that he agreed to a 4-year contract with the Mets, no doubt for far less than he could have received even 2 years ago. Granderson is 32, coming off an injury-plagued 2013 and struggles against left-handers.
Also, the Yankees retained RHP Hiroki Kuroda for 2014. The busy Post reported the contract is for $16 million, with a $250,000 incentive for innings pitched. Kuroda has been mostly reliable in his two seasons in the Bronx. He has exceeded 200 innings in each of the last three years. But ... he has two winning records in six seasons in the U.S., will be 39 next season and didn't win a game after Aug. 12. (I know that too well; he was on one of my fantasy teams.) He's an exception to the rule that the ancient Yankees are getting somewhat younger.
Another situation I've commented on without a follow-up is 1B/DH Paul Konerko's re-signing. I applaud his or his agent's foresight in structuring his 1-year contract so he's paid $1.5 million in 2014, with $1 million deferred until 2015. That will make his transition out of the game much smoother. It's not likely that Konerko would suffer through another poor season in '15 -- barring an unlikely late-in-life resurgence such as Ted Williams and Stan Musial had in 1959 after bad years in '58. It's no coincidence that White Sox play-by-play man Ken Harrelson's contract expires after 2015, and he already has curtailed his travel schedule. In 2012, Sox color man Steve Stone made a reported $600,000 (with a lot of broadcast experience). There would seem to be room for Konerko in the broadcast booth, or even making a few hundred grand as a coach.
Marlins fans! Don't make World Series plans yet, but Miami did sign SS Rafael Furcal to a 1-year contract. He's expected to move to second base, with former 2B Donovan Solano or a player to be acquired at third. Apparently, the 36-year-old Furcal no longer is strong enough to unseat Adeiny Hechavarria at shortstop, especially after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March and missing all of last season. The South Florida Sun-Sentinel indicated that Furcal's contract is for $3.5 million, plus incentives. We'll find out during spring training whether he'll be ready by opening day. But really, does this look like a contending infield? Wait! I'm forgetting 1B Logan Morrison, who hasn't batted even .250 in any of the last three seasons.
* * *
Football. Both of my teams were off to a good start Thursday night, with Texans TE Garrett Graham scoring a touchdown and gaining 72 receiving yards. So I took early leads of 13-0 in my scoring-plus-yardage league (first week of a two-week consolation playoff semifinal) and 6-0 in Week 14 of my scoring-only league. In that one, I'm still projected for a tie against one of the two teams tied for first place a game ahead of me.
* * *
Hockey. Important key: The downside of having a lot of players, especially forwards, in your lineup, is that they can drag you down, especially by your plus/minus and ATOI.
I filled my starting lineup with 15 skaters and 2 goalies -- and lost 3 1/2 points. Where I was within 2 points of second place, I dropped to 5 back overnight. Here's what happened. The two goalies' team played but they didn't. I read a note saying that Jean-Sebastien Giguere would start for Colorado Friday, but forgot that it was Thursday. The 15 skaters totaled 0 goals and 2 assists, and were minus-6. In addition, defensemen Jan Hejda and Victor Hedman both left early because of injuries, hurting my ATOI even more. They join Henrik Zetterberg on my injured list. Also, I have to get the minus-9 Jason Spezza from the loser Senators off my roster. Clarke MacArthur can stay for the time being.
* * *
Basketball. Important key. If you have a guy on your roster who isn't playing tonight, but is tomorrow, be sure to put him into an open spot in your starting lineup instead of a player who is inactive for the next 2 days -- even if he's a franchise player.
I didn't follow one of my other important keys Wednesday. I didn't set my lineup until nearly 7 p.m. EDT. By that time, the Cavaliers' game already had started, so I couldn't get Anderson Varejao into my lineup. I could have put him in the lineup Tuesday (see Important key under hockey), guarding against the possibility of getting around to setting the lineup too late. I could have used his 18 points, 13 rebounds and assorted assists, blocks and steals. I made up somewhat for that lost production Thursday, regaining a 5-3 lead for the week.
For now, I'm off to find a hockey forward to replace Jason Spezza.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Will McCann turn out better than Martin for Yankees?
The big baseball news is the same item, but in two or three different ways. 1) The Yankees signed C Brian McCann to a 5-year, $85-million contract. 2) The news was not broken by one of the horde of writers on the Yankees beat, but by the Dallas Morning News' estimable Evan Grant. No doubt his source was close to the Rangers, who lost out in the bidding. We could have seen that coming, because talk in Texas was about McCann as a DH/backup to C Geovany Soto. 3) The last time the Yankees signed a free-agent catcher, Russell Martin, that didn't work out well for New York. But when Martin then signed with Pittsburgh, he received a lot of credit for his work with a young pitching staff and helping the team to its first playoff berth -- first winning season, even -- in 21 years. That leads to the question of whether Yankees manager Joe Girardi, a former catcher valued for his defense, isn't a good judge of his younger counterparts, or is too demanding of them -- as Angels manager Mike Scioscia might have been with Mike Napoli -- or perhaps there was conflict between Girardi and Martin. (Just googled Girardi Martin; it the only apparent possibility above was the "too demanding" part, but more likely misplaced relative frugality played a bigger role. Still, it's difficult to believe New York couldn't afford $15 million over 2 years for Martin.) Anyway, the Yankees never seem to have a shortage of DHs (unless their third baseman isn't let off the hook), so we can expect McCann to catch a lot.
Received a text from Michael -- a Cardinals fan, but a friend anyway -- about how St. Louis will be even stronger this year. Before he told me about the reported imminent signing of SS Jhonny Peralta, I replied that their infield could be a concern. I was thinking in terms of losing David Freese's bat, and shifting Matt Carpenter's shaky defense to third base. Peralta is by no means a defensive upgrade It's a good thing the Cards won't have a lot of lefties giving up ground-ball singles through the left side of that infield. Peralta does make their lineup even more formidable. But for an example of how important defense is in the postseason, we can look past the Cardinals to the Tigers' recent history.
Another reported signing would have the Angels continuing to retool their bullpen by signing RHP Joe Smith. He's a useful piece and an improvement. But 3 years and $15 million for just another guy named Joe Smith?
The Rangers quietly resigned RHP Colby Lewis to a minor league contract. He hasn't pitched in a year and a half because of a succession of injuries. I saw some of his rehab starts last year and can't report a lot more than he looked quite a bit better than RHP Brandon Webb in his tragically ill-fated comeback attempt. Lewis was a valuable part of the team's rise to contender status, and an easy guy to root for. However, after coming into the off-season talking about LHP David Price, Texas will need more than a successful return by Lewis in the middle or bottom of its rotation.
* * *
Basketball -- My full-court press with 9 of the 10 positions in my lineup filled Saturday worked well. They combined for enough assists, led by Ricky Rubio's 8, to move me from 6 behind to 6 ahead. That meant that I'm now ahead in all eight categories. Just two players from my Saturday lineup are playing again today, but I've moved up all three players from my bench.
Tuned in the Mavericks-Nuggets game on my TV in time to see Dallas complete a comeback from being 12 down at the end of three quarters, then lose that lead and end up with a 102-100 loss as Dirk Nowitzki's 20-footer at the buzzer went off the iron. Samuel Dalembert, one of my fantasy centers, didn't miss a shot from the field in his two weekend games. Unfortunately, he had no official attempts Saturday.
* * *
Hockey Night in My House was a good one. All but one of my 15 spots for skaters was filled, and they reversed the current trend by finishing the night plus-4. They also averaged enough minutes to pull me past the former third-place team in ATOI. Even better, both of the goalies in my lineup won their games, allowing me to pick up another half-point on the team I was pursuing. Even better, James Reimer and Steve Mason gave up a total of three goals. Their efforts added a point in wins, another for GAA and 2 for save percentage. In total, I gained 6 1/2 points and had an 8-point swing to move into third place with a 7 1/2-point cushion. Another night like that could put me close to second place. That's more than I can hope for, but steady progress over the next couple of weeks could get me there. It's still close in a number of categories; I could easily drop back a point or two in some of those.
On Sunday, none of my goalies will be playing. Just five of the skaters on my roster will be in action. I have all of them in my lineup. Even though three of them are from Ottawa and have hefty minus ratings this season, they're going against the struggling Hurricanes. But if some of them come up negative again, I'll be searching the waiver wire. You're on notice, Jason Spezza, Clarke MacArthur and Milan Michalek.
I did make one move this morning. With Francois Beauchemin on IR, I claimed free-agent D Jan Hejda. He's able to help primarily in ATOI (he averages more minutes than Beauchemin) and plus/minus (at plus-14 he would replace Beauchemin as my highest-rated player).
Important key in any daily fantasy league: Keep up with it.
* * *
Football. I resist the urge to look at my lineup multiple times during the week. At most, I'll do that three times: 1) Monday night/Tuesday morning, when all the games are finished and waiver claims might be needed. 2) Thursday morning, to make sure I'm set with anyone who would be playing that night and pretty much to get my lineup in order (make waiver claims, make sure I'm covered for anyone on a bye week). 3) As late as possible Sunday morning, so I can have the latest updates on who's not playing or hurting. It makes no sense for me to look -- say, now at 7:20 a.m. -- when I might have to change things again in a few hours. Besides, I'm not always awake at this time.
Another important key: I have struggled during bye weeks over the last few years. I'm resolving to avoid any player during the week when six teams are on a bye. I'd make an exception for someone like Peyton Manning or Calvin Johnson, but if you have to replace three or four players from your bench or among available free agents, you're almost certain to be in trouble.
Received a text from Michael -- a Cardinals fan, but a friend anyway -- about how St. Louis will be even stronger this year. Before he told me about the reported imminent signing of SS Jhonny Peralta, I replied that their infield could be a concern. I was thinking in terms of losing David Freese's bat, and shifting Matt Carpenter's shaky defense to third base. Peralta is by no means a defensive upgrade It's a good thing the Cards won't have a lot of lefties giving up ground-ball singles through the left side of that infield. Peralta does make their lineup even more formidable. But for an example of how important defense is in the postseason, we can look past the Cardinals to the Tigers' recent history.
Another reported signing would have the Angels continuing to retool their bullpen by signing RHP Joe Smith. He's a useful piece and an improvement. But 3 years and $15 million for just another guy named Joe Smith?
The Rangers quietly resigned RHP Colby Lewis to a minor league contract. He hasn't pitched in a year and a half because of a succession of injuries. I saw some of his rehab starts last year and can't report a lot more than he looked quite a bit better than RHP Brandon Webb in his tragically ill-fated comeback attempt. Lewis was a valuable part of the team's rise to contender status, and an easy guy to root for. However, after coming into the off-season talking about LHP David Price, Texas will need more than a successful return by Lewis in the middle or bottom of its rotation.
* * *
Basketball -- My full-court press with 9 of the 10 positions in my lineup filled Saturday worked well. They combined for enough assists, led by Ricky Rubio's 8, to move me from 6 behind to 6 ahead. That meant that I'm now ahead in all eight categories. Just two players from my Saturday lineup are playing again today, but I've moved up all three players from my bench.
Tuned in the Mavericks-Nuggets game on my TV in time to see Dallas complete a comeback from being 12 down at the end of three quarters, then lose that lead and end up with a 102-100 loss as Dirk Nowitzki's 20-footer at the buzzer went off the iron. Samuel Dalembert, one of my fantasy centers, didn't miss a shot from the field in his two weekend games. Unfortunately, he had no official attempts Saturday.
* * *
Hockey Night in My House was a good one. All but one of my 15 spots for skaters was filled, and they reversed the current trend by finishing the night plus-4. They also averaged enough minutes to pull me past the former third-place team in ATOI. Even better, both of the goalies in my lineup won their games, allowing me to pick up another half-point on the team I was pursuing. Even better, James Reimer and Steve Mason gave up a total of three goals. Their efforts added a point in wins, another for GAA and 2 for save percentage. In total, I gained 6 1/2 points and had an 8-point swing to move into third place with a 7 1/2-point cushion. Another night like that could put me close to second place. That's more than I can hope for, but steady progress over the next couple of weeks could get me there. It's still close in a number of categories; I could easily drop back a point or two in some of those.
On Sunday, none of my goalies will be playing. Just five of the skaters on my roster will be in action. I have all of them in my lineup. Even though three of them are from Ottawa and have hefty minus ratings this season, they're going against the struggling Hurricanes. But if some of them come up negative again, I'll be searching the waiver wire. You're on notice, Jason Spezza, Clarke MacArthur and Milan Michalek.
I did make one move this morning. With Francois Beauchemin on IR, I claimed free-agent D Jan Hejda. He's able to help primarily in ATOI (he averages more minutes than Beauchemin) and plus/minus (at plus-14 he would replace Beauchemin as my highest-rated player).
Important key in any daily fantasy league: Keep up with it.
* * *
Football. I resist the urge to look at my lineup multiple times during the week. At most, I'll do that three times: 1) Monday night/Tuesday morning, when all the games are finished and waiver claims might be needed. 2) Thursday morning, to make sure I'm set with anyone who would be playing that night and pretty much to get my lineup in order (make waiver claims, make sure I'm covered for anyone on a bye week). 3) As late as possible Sunday morning, so I can have the latest updates on who's not playing or hurting. It makes no sense for me to look -- say, now at 7:20 a.m. -- when I might have to change things again in a few hours. Besides, I'm not always awake at this time.
Another important key: I have struggled during bye weeks over the last few years. I'm resolving to avoid any player during the week when six teams are on a bye. I'd make an exception for someone like Peyton Manning or Calvin Johnson, but if you have to replace three or four players from your bench or among available free agents, you're almost certain to be in trouble.
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