Some observations from Thursday's games.
I watched the Twins and Rangers, a 5-4 Texas victory, and came away impressed with Minnesota's improvement.
The Twinkies have had some players on a shuttle between the Twin Cities and Triple-A Rochester, and it's seeming less likely that OF Oswaldo Arcia, SS Eduardo Escobar and SS/OF Danny Santana will need their return ticket back East.
Arcia swings a mean bat. He hit a career-high 24 homers last season between the Twins and Red Wings, but his offensive strength seems to be more in driving balls to the right-center field gap. He showed nascent power in his last full minor league season in 2012 by belting 26 doubles. Rangers outfielders seemed to spend a lot of time during the series in Minnesota running back toward the scoreboard in center for balls Arcia hit.
Escobar has slumped a bit lately, but he seems to be continuing his personal trend of improvement his second time at a level. In those situations, his batting average has gone up from the .230 range to .290-.300-plus. In any event, he's a big offensive step up from Pedro Florimon, but with less speed.
Santana is listed as a shortstop too, but he had a three-hit game as the center fielder in place of heralded, and disappointing, prospect Aaron Hicks. There seems likely to be a place for Santana as long as he hits.
As a team, Minnesota will need more pitching to be a serious contender.
On the Texas side, rookie RHP Nick Martinez started, and struggled. He left in the fifth inning of a 4-4 game. He has done far more for the Rangers than they would have expected from a guy they didn't even invite to major league spring training. What he showed Thursday was that he needs his curve to be effective. Against the Twins, it alternated from not breaking the way it usually has in his brief major league career to sitting in the middle of the plate so OF/DH Josh Willingham could hit it out of the park. Martinez has some upside, just don't expect his future to be high in a major league rotation.
While I'm on the subject of pitchers, I'm going to continue my usual distaste for the DH rule. One of the arguments for it is "I don't like to watch pitchers making outs." OK, then let's get DHs for Brad Miller and Will Venable too.
I do like to watch pitchers contributing with their bat and their glove.
Martinez helped defuse a rally by fielding C Josmil Pinto's weak ground ball in front of the plate with the bases loaded, and shoveling the ball to C Robinson Chirinos for a force out. That wouldn't seem so big, except that Texas lost a game in the series when RHP Joakim Soria couldn't field a similar grounder.
Extending the DH rule to the National League would deprive some good-hitting pitchers of having a chance to help themselves with their offense. Cy Young winner LHP Clayton Kershaw would be one of those. Also, Reds RHP Mike Leake, who has the most hits of any pitcher over a 4- or 5-year span. OK, so Brewers RHP Yovani Gallardo was a pinch hitter and not the pitcher when his 10th-inning double Tuesday when his double drove in the winning run, but you get the idea.
Pirates RHP Gerrit Cole didn't have a hit Thursday, so his average dropped to .250. What he did was follow two singles by SS Clint Barmes with sacrifice bunts, setting up two run-scoring singles by electric RF Josh Harrison in a 6-3 victory over the Dodgers. Cole's second bunt was in the seventh inning, and because he can handle a bat the Pirates ace was able to stay in the game for the bottom of the inning in his team-high fifth win.
Friday, May 30, 2014
Thursday, May 29, 2014
Tulo is too high for anyone to match; consider Lucroy
Here's a study of major league batters at about the one-third point of the season.
It corresponds with my post on pitchers.
The measures are similar to the Strikeability (strikeout:walk ratio) and Hittability (opponents' batting average) from the pitchers post. For batters we turn around Strikeability to walk:strikeout ratio, and use slugging percentage for Hittability.
Again, there's a scale of 1-4, derived by dividing the players on a pace to qualify for the batting average title into four quartiles from top to bottom, for both Strikeability and Hittability. Those yield combined ratings from 2 (best) to 8 (worst).
The batters rated 2, the best in the majors this season, are Troy Tulowitzki, Victor Martinez, Seth Smith, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Freddie Freeman, Michael Brantley, David Ortiz (who hasn't had to beg for all of his hits), Jonathan Lucroy, Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Pence.
At the other end of the scale, 8 ratings went to Jonathan Schoop, Jean Segura, Everth Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Chris Johnson, Leonys Martin, Billy Hamilton, Josh Reddick, Ben Revere, Marcus Semien, Adelny Hechavarria, Jackie Bradley, Zack Cozart, Jedd Gyorko, Alejandro De Aza, Nate Schierholtz and Will Venable.
Note that the 8 list contains plenty of outfielders and shortstops who could keep their jobs because of their defense and even earn some fantasy points by stealing bases.
The following lists indicate and rank players whose W/K ratios and slugging percentages indicate that they could improve their fantasy statistics during the remainder of the season, along with other players whose Strikeability and Hittability could be foreshadowing a decline during the season's second two-thirds.
Sleepers/keepers: 1. Jonathan Lucroy (fourth quartile in HR and R, third in RBI); 2. Seth Smith (third quartile in RBI and R); 3. Hunter Pence (fourth quartile in RBI); 4. Andrew McCutchen (fourth quartile in HR); 5. Salvador Perez (fourth quartile in HR, RBI and R, third in BA); 6. Matt Joyce (fourth quartile in HR and R, third in RBI); 7. Jose Reyes (fourth quartile in HR and RBI, third in BA); 8. Adam Dunn (fourth quartile in BA and R); 9. Jose Altuve (fourth quartile in HR and RBI); 10. David Murphy (fourth quartile in R, third in HR). Mike Napoli and Joey Votto also could be among the top 10 keepers, but they're injured.
Other candidates for improved stats are Daniel Murphy, Jimmy Rollins, Yadier Molina, Yangervis Solarte, Chase Utley, Shin-soo Choo, Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, Edwin Encarnacion, Brian Dozier, Coco Crisp, Brett Lawrie, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Carlos Ruiz, Denard Span, Mark Reynolds, Dustin Pedroia, Angel Pagan, Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Montero, Kyle Seager, Ian Kinsler, James Loney, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, A.J. Pollock, Jhonny Peralta, Adrian Beltre, Hanley Ramirez and Buster Posey.
Given nearly a full-time job, Smith has blossomed in his new surroundings with the Padres, even though those surroundings include one of the least-hitter-friendly home parks.
A word on Solarte: I've been meaning all spring to caution against putting him on your roster. The numbers say he could improve, because he has a high W/K ratio. My feeling has been that Solarte was a false hope for his Yankees and fantasy fans. He played eight minor league seasons without a whiff of the majors, even last season when the Rangers had injuries in their infield. Sure, he batted close to .300 for almost two months, but I think he's more likely to bat closer to .200 for another two-month stretch.
Another sleeper to consider, if he's still available in your league, is red-hit Astros rookie OF George Springer. He's off to a good start in a hitter-friendly home park, and if Houston continues to lose he could see a lot of fastballs from pitchers with big leads.
Slumpers/dumpers: 1. Ben Revere (first quartile in BA); 2. Jean Segura (second quartile in BA and R); 3. Jedd Gyorko (second quartile in RBI); 4. Everth Cabrera (second quartile in R); 5. Leonys Martin (second quartile in BA); 6. Gerardo Parra (first quartile in R, second in BA); 7. Martin Prado (second quartile in RBI, BA and R); 8. Emilio Bonifacio (second quartile in BA and R); 9. Jason Castro (second quartile in HR and RBI); 10. A.J. Pierzynski (second quartile in RBI and BA). Chris Colabello would have been on the list if the Twins hadn't already sent him to the minors.
Others whose outlook isn't brilliant for the June-September period are Wil Myers, Danny Espinosa, Brandon Phillips, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Marcel Ozuna, David Wright, Ian Desmond, Evan Longoria, Rajai Davis, Brett Lawrie, J.J. Hardy, Eric Young, Norichika Aoki, Yan Gomes, Allen Craig, Joe Mauer, Aaron Hill, D.J. LeMahieu, Matt Dominguez, Chris Owings, Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner.
Here's a ranking of every qualifying batter from 1-177.
Top quarter -- (2 rating) 1. SS Troy Tulowitzki, 2. OF Jose Bautista, 3. 1B Freddie Freeman, 4. OF Michael Brantley, 5. DH/1B Victor Martinez, 6. 3B Josh Donaldson, 7. DH Jose Ortiz, 8. OF Hunter Pence, 9. OF Seth Smith, 10. OF Andrew McCutchen, 11. C Jonathan Lucroy, (3 rating) 12. OF Nelson Cruz, 13. OF Yasiel Puig, 14. OF Giancarlo Stanton, 15. OF Charlie Blackmon, 16. OF Mike Trout, 17. 1B Adrian Gonzalez, 19. 1B/OF Brandon Moss, 20. 1B Justin Morneau, 21. 1B Albert Pujols, 22. 2B Brian Dozier, 23. 1B Anthony Rizzo, 24. 2B Neil Walker, 25. OF Shin-soo Choo, 26. 2B Chase Utley, 27. 2B Daniel Murphy, 28. C Yadier Molina, 29. 3B Yangervis Solarte, 30. 2B Jose Altuve, 31. OF David Murphy, 32. SS Jimmy Rollins, 33. 1B/OF Adam Dunn, 34. SS Jose Reyes, 35. 1B Joey Votto, 36. 1B Mike Napoli, 37. OF Matt Joyce, (4 rating) 38. OF Justin Upton, 39. OF Carlos Gomez, 40. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 41. OF Melky Cabrera, 42. SS Alexei Ramirez, 43. 1B Miguel Cabrera, 44. 3B Nolan Arenado, 45. 3B Todd Frazier.
Second quartile -- 46. SS Jhonny Peralta, 47. 2B Robinson Cano, 48. OF Matt Holliday, 49. OF Alex Rios, 50. OF Yoenis Cespedes, 51. 1B/OF Garrett Jones, 52. 2B Anthony Rendon, 53. 1B James Loney, 54. OF A.J. Pollock, 55. 1B Chris Davis, 56. 3B Adrian Beltre, 57. SS Hanley Ramirez, 58. 3B Kyle Seager, 59. C Buster Posey, 60. 2B Ian Kinsler, 61. SS Xander Bogaerts, 62. C Kurt Suzuki, 63. 2B Dustin Pedroia, 64. 1B Mark Reynolds, 65. OF Nick Markakis, 66. C Miguel Montero, 67. OF Denard Span, 68. C Carlos Ruiz, 69. OF Angel Pagan, 70. 2B Brian Roberts, 71. SS Jed Lowrie, 72. C Salvador Perez, 73. OF Coco Crisp, (5 rating) 74. 1B Jose Abreu, 75. OF/1B Michael Morse, 76. 2B Howie Kendrick, 77. OF Carlos Gonzalez, 78. OF Torii Hunter, 79. 1B Ryan Howard, 80. OF Khris Davis, 81. OF Christian Yelich, 82. OF Jayson Werth, 83. SS Starlin Castro, 84. 3B Pablo Sandoval, 85. OF Marlon Byrd, 86. 3B Eric Aybar, 87. OF Alex Gordon, 88. 1B/3B Casey McGehee, 89. 3B Pedro Alvarez, 90. 2B Dee Gordon.
Third quartile -- 91. OF Dayan Viciedo, 92. OF Jacoby Ellsbury, 93. SS Brandon Crawford, 94. 3B Trevor Plouffe, 95. 3B/2B Matt Carpenter, 96. C Brian McCann, 97. OF Dexter Fowler, 98. SS Elvis Andrus, 99. OF Junior Lake, 100. OF Desmond Jennings, 101. SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 102. 1B Chris Carter, 103. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 104. OF/1B Lance Duda, 105. 2B/OF Ben Zobrist, 106. 3B/C Carlos Santana, 107. 1B Matt Adams, 108. OF Austin Jackson, 109. SS Andrelton Simmons, 110. 1B Cecil Fielder, 111. SS Yunel Escobar, 112. 3B/SS Alberto Callaspo, (6 rating) 113. OF Adam Jones, 114. OF Marcel Ozuna, 115. 3B Evan Longoria, 116. 3B David Wright, 117. 1B Justin Smoak, 118. SS Ian Desmond, 119. OF Brett Gardner, 120. OF/1B Allen Craig, 121. C Yan Gomes, 122. OF Rajai Davis, 123. 3B Brett Lawrie, 124. 3B Matt Dominguez, 125. 1B Eric Hosmer, 126. OF Curtis Granderson, 127. 1B/C Joe Mauer, 128. OF Norichika Aoki, 129. OF Alfonso Soriano, 130. OF/2B Dustin Ackley, 131. 2B Aaron Hill, 132. 2B D.J. LeMahieu, 133. OF Eric Young, 134. SS Derek Jeter.
Bottom quarter: 135. OF Matt Kemp, 136. SS Chris Owings, 137. 2B Scooter Gennett, 138. OF Jason Heyward, 139. 1B/OF Nick Swisher, 140. 1B Billy Butler, (7 rating) 141. 3B Martin Prado, 142. OF Gerardo Parra, 143. OF/2B Emilio Bonifacio, 144. OF Wil Myers, 145. C Jason Castro, 146. C A.J. Pierzynski, 147. C Wellington Castro, 148. OF Starling Marte, 149. 1B Chris Colabello, 150. SS J.J. Hardy, 151. SS Alcides Escobar, 152. SS Brad Miller, 153. 2B Brandon Phillips, 154. 2B Danny Espinosa, 155. SS Jonathan Villar, 156. OF Ryan Ludwick, 157. OF B.J. Upton, 158. OF Domonic Brown, 159. 1B Yonder Alonso, 160. OF Jason Kubel, (8 rating) 161. SS Jean Segura, 162. OF Ben Revere, 163. SS Everth Cabrera, 164. 2B Jedd Gyorko, 165. OF Leonys Martin, 166. SS Adelny Hechavarria, 167. 2B Jonathan Schoop, 168. 3B Nick Castellanos, 169. 3B Chris Johnson, 170. OF Billy Hamilton, 171. OF Josh Reddick, 172. 3B Marcus Semien, 173. OF Jackie Bradley, 174. SS Zack Cozart, 175. OF Alejandro De Aza, 176. OF Nate Schierholtz, 177. OF Will Venable.
It corresponds with my post on pitchers.
The measures are similar to the Strikeability (strikeout:walk ratio) and Hittability (opponents' batting average) from the pitchers post. For batters we turn around Strikeability to walk:strikeout ratio, and use slugging percentage for Hittability.
Again, there's a scale of 1-4, derived by dividing the players on a pace to qualify for the batting average title into four quartiles from top to bottom, for both Strikeability and Hittability. Those yield combined ratings from 2 (best) to 8 (worst).
The batters rated 2, the best in the majors this season, are Troy Tulowitzki, Victor Martinez, Seth Smith, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Freddie Freeman, Michael Brantley, David Ortiz (who hasn't had to beg for all of his hits), Jonathan Lucroy, Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Pence.
At the other end of the scale, 8 ratings went to Jonathan Schoop, Jean Segura, Everth Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Chris Johnson, Leonys Martin, Billy Hamilton, Josh Reddick, Ben Revere, Marcus Semien, Adelny Hechavarria, Jackie Bradley, Zack Cozart, Jedd Gyorko, Alejandro De Aza, Nate Schierholtz and Will Venable.
Note that the 8 list contains plenty of outfielders and shortstops who could keep their jobs because of their defense and even earn some fantasy points by stealing bases.
The following lists indicate and rank players whose W/K ratios and slugging percentages indicate that they could improve their fantasy statistics during the remainder of the season, along with other players whose Strikeability and Hittability could be foreshadowing a decline during the season's second two-thirds.
Sleepers/keepers: 1. Jonathan Lucroy (fourth quartile in HR and R, third in RBI); 2. Seth Smith (third quartile in RBI and R); 3. Hunter Pence (fourth quartile in RBI); 4. Andrew McCutchen (fourth quartile in HR); 5. Salvador Perez (fourth quartile in HR, RBI and R, third in BA); 6. Matt Joyce (fourth quartile in HR and R, third in RBI); 7. Jose Reyes (fourth quartile in HR and RBI, third in BA); 8. Adam Dunn (fourth quartile in BA and R); 9. Jose Altuve (fourth quartile in HR and RBI); 10. David Murphy (fourth quartile in R, third in HR). Mike Napoli and Joey Votto also could be among the top 10 keepers, but they're injured.
Other candidates for improved stats are Daniel Murphy, Jimmy Rollins, Yadier Molina, Yangervis Solarte, Chase Utley, Shin-soo Choo, Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, Edwin Encarnacion, Brian Dozier, Coco Crisp, Brett Lawrie, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Carlos Ruiz, Denard Span, Mark Reynolds, Dustin Pedroia, Angel Pagan, Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Montero, Kyle Seager, Ian Kinsler, James Loney, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Matt Holliday, Alex Rios, A.J. Pollock, Jhonny Peralta, Adrian Beltre, Hanley Ramirez and Buster Posey.
Given nearly a full-time job, Smith has blossomed in his new surroundings with the Padres, even though those surroundings include one of the least-hitter-friendly home parks.
A word on Solarte: I've been meaning all spring to caution against putting him on your roster. The numbers say he could improve, because he has a high W/K ratio. My feeling has been that Solarte was a false hope for his Yankees and fantasy fans. He played eight minor league seasons without a whiff of the majors, even last season when the Rangers had injuries in their infield. Sure, he batted close to .300 for almost two months, but I think he's more likely to bat closer to .200 for another two-month stretch.
Another sleeper to consider, if he's still available in your league, is red-hit Astros rookie OF George Springer. He's off to a good start in a hitter-friendly home park, and if Houston continues to lose he could see a lot of fastballs from pitchers with big leads.
Slumpers/dumpers: 1. Ben Revere (first quartile in BA); 2. Jean Segura (second quartile in BA and R); 3. Jedd Gyorko (second quartile in RBI); 4. Everth Cabrera (second quartile in R); 5. Leonys Martin (second quartile in BA); 6. Gerardo Parra (first quartile in R, second in BA); 7. Martin Prado (second quartile in RBI, BA and R); 8. Emilio Bonifacio (second quartile in BA and R); 9. Jason Castro (second quartile in HR and RBI); 10. A.J. Pierzynski (second quartile in RBI and BA). Chris Colabello would have been on the list if the Twins hadn't already sent him to the minors.
Others whose outlook isn't brilliant for the June-September period are Wil Myers, Danny Espinosa, Brandon Phillips, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Marcel Ozuna, David Wright, Ian Desmond, Evan Longoria, Rajai Davis, Brett Lawrie, J.J. Hardy, Eric Young, Norichika Aoki, Yan Gomes, Allen Craig, Joe Mauer, Aaron Hill, D.J. LeMahieu, Matt Dominguez, Chris Owings, Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner.
Here's a ranking of every qualifying batter from 1-177.
Top quarter -- (2 rating) 1. SS Troy Tulowitzki, 2. OF Jose Bautista, 3. 1B Freddie Freeman, 4. OF Michael Brantley, 5. DH/1B Victor Martinez, 6. 3B Josh Donaldson, 7. DH Jose Ortiz, 8. OF Hunter Pence, 9. OF Seth Smith, 10. OF Andrew McCutchen, 11. C Jonathan Lucroy, (3 rating) 12. OF Nelson Cruz, 13. OF Yasiel Puig, 14. OF Giancarlo Stanton, 15. OF Charlie Blackmon, 16. OF Mike Trout, 17. 1B Adrian Gonzalez, 19. 1B/OF Brandon Moss, 20. 1B Justin Morneau, 21. 1B Albert Pujols, 22. 2B Brian Dozier, 23. 1B Anthony Rizzo, 24. 2B Neil Walker, 25. OF Shin-soo Choo, 26. 2B Chase Utley, 27. 2B Daniel Murphy, 28. C Yadier Molina, 29. 3B Yangervis Solarte, 30. 2B Jose Altuve, 31. OF David Murphy, 32. SS Jimmy Rollins, 33. 1B/OF Adam Dunn, 34. SS Jose Reyes, 35. 1B Joey Votto, 36. 1B Mike Napoli, 37. OF Matt Joyce, (4 rating) 38. OF Justin Upton, 39. OF Carlos Gomez, 40. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, 41. OF Melky Cabrera, 42. SS Alexei Ramirez, 43. 1B Miguel Cabrera, 44. 3B Nolan Arenado, 45. 3B Todd Frazier.
Second quartile -- 46. SS Jhonny Peralta, 47. 2B Robinson Cano, 48. OF Matt Holliday, 49. OF Alex Rios, 50. OF Yoenis Cespedes, 51. 1B/OF Garrett Jones, 52. 2B Anthony Rendon, 53. 1B James Loney, 54. OF A.J. Pollock, 55. 1B Chris Davis, 56. 3B Adrian Beltre, 57. SS Hanley Ramirez, 58. 3B Kyle Seager, 59. C Buster Posey, 60. 2B Ian Kinsler, 61. SS Xander Bogaerts, 62. C Kurt Suzuki, 63. 2B Dustin Pedroia, 64. 1B Mark Reynolds, 65. OF Nick Markakis, 66. C Miguel Montero, 67. OF Denard Span, 68. C Carlos Ruiz, 69. OF Angel Pagan, 70. 2B Brian Roberts, 71. SS Jed Lowrie, 72. C Salvador Perez, 73. OF Coco Crisp, (5 rating) 74. 1B Jose Abreu, 75. OF/1B Michael Morse, 76. 2B Howie Kendrick, 77. OF Carlos Gonzalez, 78. OF Torii Hunter, 79. 1B Ryan Howard, 80. OF Khris Davis, 81. OF Christian Yelich, 82. OF Jayson Werth, 83. SS Starlin Castro, 84. 3B Pablo Sandoval, 85. OF Marlon Byrd, 86. 3B Eric Aybar, 87. OF Alex Gordon, 88. 1B/3B Casey McGehee, 89. 3B Pedro Alvarez, 90. 2B Dee Gordon.
Third quartile -- 91. OF Dayan Viciedo, 92. OF Jacoby Ellsbury, 93. SS Brandon Crawford, 94. 3B Trevor Plouffe, 95. 3B/2B Matt Carpenter, 96. C Brian McCann, 97. OF Dexter Fowler, 98. SS Elvis Andrus, 99. OF Junior Lake, 100. OF Desmond Jennings, 101. SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 102. 1B Chris Carter, 103. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 104. OF/1B Lance Duda, 105. 2B/OF Ben Zobrist, 106. 3B/C Carlos Santana, 107. 1B Matt Adams, 108. OF Austin Jackson, 109. SS Andrelton Simmons, 110. 1B Cecil Fielder, 111. SS Yunel Escobar, 112. 3B/SS Alberto Callaspo, (6 rating) 113. OF Adam Jones, 114. OF Marcel Ozuna, 115. 3B Evan Longoria, 116. 3B David Wright, 117. 1B Justin Smoak, 118. SS Ian Desmond, 119. OF Brett Gardner, 120. OF/1B Allen Craig, 121. C Yan Gomes, 122. OF Rajai Davis, 123. 3B Brett Lawrie, 124. 3B Matt Dominguez, 125. 1B Eric Hosmer, 126. OF Curtis Granderson, 127. 1B/C Joe Mauer, 128. OF Norichika Aoki, 129. OF Alfonso Soriano, 130. OF/2B Dustin Ackley, 131. 2B Aaron Hill, 132. 2B D.J. LeMahieu, 133. OF Eric Young, 134. SS Derek Jeter.
Bottom quarter: 135. OF Matt Kemp, 136. SS Chris Owings, 137. 2B Scooter Gennett, 138. OF Jason Heyward, 139. 1B/OF Nick Swisher, 140. 1B Billy Butler, (7 rating) 141. 3B Martin Prado, 142. OF Gerardo Parra, 143. OF/2B Emilio Bonifacio, 144. OF Wil Myers, 145. C Jason Castro, 146. C A.J. Pierzynski, 147. C Wellington Castro, 148. OF Starling Marte, 149. 1B Chris Colabello, 150. SS J.J. Hardy, 151. SS Alcides Escobar, 152. SS Brad Miller, 153. 2B Brandon Phillips, 154. 2B Danny Espinosa, 155. SS Jonathan Villar, 156. OF Ryan Ludwick, 157. OF B.J. Upton, 158. OF Domonic Brown, 159. 1B Yonder Alonso, 160. OF Jason Kubel, (8 rating) 161. SS Jean Segura, 162. OF Ben Revere, 163. SS Everth Cabrera, 164. 2B Jedd Gyorko, 165. OF Leonys Martin, 166. SS Adelny Hechavarria, 167. 2B Jonathan Schoop, 168. 3B Nick Castellanos, 169. 3B Chris Johnson, 170. OF Billy Hamilton, 171. OF Josh Reddick, 172. 3B Marcus Semien, 173. OF Jackie Bradley, 174. SS Zack Cozart, 175. OF Alejandro De Aza, 176. OF Nate Schierholtz, 177. OF Will Venable.
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Wainwright's No. 1, but look who's No. 10 -- for now
Here you'll find my annual in-season suggestions of pitchers to keep and drop.
On the Memorial Day weekend, I measure two skills -- Strikeability, based on strikeout:walk ratio, and Hittability, based on opponents' batting average.
Dividing starting pitchers into four groups, top to bottom, in each category leads to numerical ratings ranging from 2 (for those in the top quarter in both K/W and BA) to 8 (for those in the bottom quarter of each).
The next step is to compare those ratings with who's doing well in the basic starting pitching fantasy categories -- Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
We've been through nearly two months of the season. In most cases, that's enough to gauge who will do well during the final four months. I have several years of success with this method.
A pitcher doing better in the Strikeability/Hittability ratings than in the fantasy stats is likely to be a good bet to improve in the fantasy measures. In addition, a pitcher struggling in those measures isn't someone you'll want to keep.
The pitchers ranked 2 have been the best in the majors in April and May, and should be good going forward. They're RHPs Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Tim Hudson and Masahiro Tanaka.
At the other end are the pitchers ranked 8. They might not even belong as starters in the majors, let alone on your fantasy team. The seven are RHPs Justin Masterson, Zach Wheeler and Kevin Correia, and LHPs John Danks, Franklin Morales, Robbie Ross (whom the Rangers dropped from their rotation before Memorial Day) and Eric Stults.
What you really want to know from this information is which pitchers are sleepers, the ones who have pitched better than their early results indicate. Also, which pitchers who have had statistical success are due for a fall.
Here are the top 10 lists for sleepers and slumpers, or keepers and dumpers if you prefer, with the statistical categories where you might expect improvement.
Sleepers/keepers: (Rated 2) 1. Tim Hudson (fourth quartile, SO); (Rated 3) 2. Michael Leake (fourth quartile, W and SO); 3. Rick Porcello (fourth quartile, SO); 4. Ian Kennedy (third quartile, ERA and W); 5. Scott Kazmir (third quartile, SO); 6. Michael Wacha (third quartile, W); (Rated 4) 7. Jeff Samardzija (fourth quartile, W); 8. Alfredo Simon (fourth quartile, ERA); 9. John Lackey (third quartile, ERA); 10. Marco Estrada (third quartile, ERA) and Drew Hutchison (third quartile, W). Yordano Ventura would have made the list, but he's an injury concern now. Monitor his recovery.
Also worthy of consideration are RHPs Dillon Gee, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Brandon McCarthy and LHPs Jon Niese and Tyler Skaggs.
Slumpers/dumpers: (Rated 8) 1. Justin Masterson (second quartile, SO); (Rated 7) 2. Tim Lincecum (second quartile, W and SO); 3. Homer Bailey (second quartile, W and SO); 4. Jeremy Guthrie (second quartile, WHIP); 5. Kyle Gibson (second quartile, W); 6. Bronson Arroyo (second quartile, W); 7. Charlie Morton (second quartile, ERA); 8. Edwin Jackson (second quartile, SO); 9. Henderson Alvarez (second quartile, ERA); (Rated 6) 10. Mark Buehrle (first quartile, ERA and W; second quartile, WHIP). Martin Perez would have been in the top 10, but he won't pitch again this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Other likely slumpers include LHPs Madison Bumgarner, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley and Roenis Elias, and RHPs Jordan Lyles, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Chris Archer and R.A. Dickey.
You expected Samardzija to head the sleepers list, didn't you? We heard so much about how he hadn't won even with an ERA barely in triple digits. However, his Strikeability rated just a 3 with a 2.57 K:W ratio. His ERA almost has to go up, along with his WHIP. And even if he pitches well, he's still with the Cubs until he's traded.
This year, I'm also ranking pitchers 1-103, the number of pitchers on an inning-per-game pace that would make them eligible for the ERA title.
Top quarter overall: (Rated 2) 1. Adam Wainwright, 2. Masahiro Tanaka, 3. Johnny Cueto, 4. Jose Fernandez (injured), 5. Tim Hudson, (Rated 3) 6. Felix Hernandez, 7. Zack Greinke, 8. James Shields, 9. Yu Darvish, 10. Jesse Chavez, 11. Max Scherzer, 12. Kyle Lohse, 13. Dallas Keuchel, 14. Jason Hammel, 15. Scott Kazmir, 16. Jon Lester, 17. Julio Teheran, 18. Michael Wacha, 19. Rick Porcello, 20. Yordano Ventura. 21. Ian Kennedy, 22. Michael Leake, (Rated 4) 23. Jered Weaver, 24. Sonny Gray, 25. C.J. Wilson, 26. Tyson Ross.
No real surprises at the top until we get to ... Jesse Chavez at No. 10. He has been pitching very well for Oakland, but Chavez has spent most of his career as a reliever, and we can't really know how he'd hold up during the season's second half.
Also, props to Rick Porcello, who at the time I compared these pitchers had won seven games while walking just seven. In case you're wondering, there have been three instances in major league history of a 20-game winner with more wins than walks.
Second quartile: 27. John Lackey, 28. Alfredo Simon, 29. Marco Estrada, 30. Drew Hutchison, 31. Garrett Richards, 32. Jeff Samardzija, 33. Stephen Strasburg, 34. Jon Niese, 35. Dillon Gee, 36. Tanner Roark, 37. Tyler Skaggs, 38. Brandon McCarthy, (Rated 5, average) 39. Aaron Harang, 40. Cliff Lee, 41. Corey Kluber, 42. Phil Hughes, 43. David Price, 44. Lance Lynn, 45. Travis Wood, 46. Wily Peralta, 47. Dan Haren, 48. Alex Wood, 49. Ervin Santana, 50. Jorge DeLaRosa, 51. Jason Vargas, 52. Gerrit Cole.
Third quartile: 53. Andrew Cashner, 54. Jose Quintana, 55. Gio Gonzalez, 56. Bud Norris, 57. Chris Young, 58. Hiroki Kuroda, 59. Bartolo Colon, 60. Tom Koehler, 61. Yovani Gallardo, (Rated 6) 62. Madison Bumgarner, 63. Mark Buehrle, 64. Jordan Lyles, 65. Nathan Eovaldi, 66. Shelby Miller, 67. R.A. Dickey, 68. Edinson Volquez, 69. Roenis Elias, 70. A.J. Burnett, 71. Wei-Yin Chen, 72. Chris Archer, 73. Chris Tillman, 74. Wade Miley, 75. Jordan Zimmermann, 76. Matt Garza, 77. Francisco Liriano, 78. Ryan Vogelsong, 79. Kyle Kendrick.
Bottom quarter: 80. Jarred Cosart, (Rated 7) 81. Justin Verlander, 82. Juan Nicasio, 83. Tim Lincecum, 84. Homer Bailey, 85. Martin Perez (injured), 86. Edwin Jackson, 87. Bronson Arroyo, 88. Henderson Alvarez, 89. Charlie Morton, 90. Jeremy Guthrie, 91. Kyle Gibson, 92. Jake Peavy, 93. Roberto Hernandez, 94. Ubaldo Jimenez, 95. Ricky Nolasco, 96. Clay Buchholz, (Rated 8) 97. Justin Masterson, 98. John Danks, 99. Zach Wheeler, 100. Franklin Morales, 101. Robbie Ross, 102. Kevin Correia, 103. Eric Stults.
Keep in mind that these are the poorest among the starters who would qualify in ERA, a group that includes less than 3 1/2 starters per team. So consider that few if any fifth starters, and most fourth starters, don't even qualify for the bottom quarter. You don't want those pitchers.
On the Memorial Day weekend, I measure two skills -- Strikeability, based on strikeout:walk ratio, and Hittability, based on opponents' batting average.
Dividing starting pitchers into four groups, top to bottom, in each category leads to numerical ratings ranging from 2 (for those in the top quarter in both K/W and BA) to 8 (for those in the bottom quarter of each).
The next step is to compare those ratings with who's doing well in the basic starting pitching fantasy categories -- Wins, Strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.
We've been through nearly two months of the season. In most cases, that's enough to gauge who will do well during the final four months. I have several years of success with this method.
A pitcher doing better in the Strikeability/Hittability ratings than in the fantasy stats is likely to be a good bet to improve in the fantasy measures. In addition, a pitcher struggling in those measures isn't someone you'll want to keep.
The pitchers ranked 2 have been the best in the majors in April and May, and should be good going forward. They're RHPs Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Tim Hudson and Masahiro Tanaka.
At the other end are the pitchers ranked 8. They might not even belong as starters in the majors, let alone on your fantasy team. The seven are RHPs Justin Masterson, Zach Wheeler and Kevin Correia, and LHPs John Danks, Franklin Morales, Robbie Ross (whom the Rangers dropped from their rotation before Memorial Day) and Eric Stults.
What you really want to know from this information is which pitchers are sleepers, the ones who have pitched better than their early results indicate. Also, which pitchers who have had statistical success are due for a fall.
Here are the top 10 lists for sleepers and slumpers, or keepers and dumpers if you prefer, with the statistical categories where you might expect improvement.
Sleepers/keepers: (Rated 2) 1. Tim Hudson (fourth quartile, SO); (Rated 3) 2. Michael Leake (fourth quartile, W and SO); 3. Rick Porcello (fourth quartile, SO); 4. Ian Kennedy (third quartile, ERA and W); 5. Scott Kazmir (third quartile, SO); 6. Michael Wacha (third quartile, W); (Rated 4) 7. Jeff Samardzija (fourth quartile, W); 8. Alfredo Simon (fourth quartile, ERA); 9. John Lackey (third quartile, ERA); 10. Marco Estrada (third quartile, ERA) and Drew Hutchison (third quartile, W). Yordano Ventura would have made the list, but he's an injury concern now. Monitor his recovery.
Also worthy of consideration are RHPs Dillon Gee, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Brandon McCarthy and LHPs Jon Niese and Tyler Skaggs.
Slumpers/dumpers: (Rated 8) 1. Justin Masterson (second quartile, SO); (Rated 7) 2. Tim Lincecum (second quartile, W and SO); 3. Homer Bailey (second quartile, W and SO); 4. Jeremy Guthrie (second quartile, WHIP); 5. Kyle Gibson (second quartile, W); 6. Bronson Arroyo (second quartile, W); 7. Charlie Morton (second quartile, ERA); 8. Edwin Jackson (second quartile, SO); 9. Henderson Alvarez (second quartile, ERA); (Rated 6) 10. Mark Buehrle (first quartile, ERA and W; second quartile, WHIP). Martin Perez would have been in the top 10, but he won't pitch again this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Other likely slumpers include LHPs Madison Bumgarner, Wei-Yin Chen, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley and Roenis Elias, and RHPs Jordan Lyles, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Chris Archer and R.A. Dickey.
You expected Samardzija to head the sleepers list, didn't you? We heard so much about how he hadn't won even with an ERA barely in triple digits. However, his Strikeability rated just a 3 with a 2.57 K:W ratio. His ERA almost has to go up, along with his WHIP. And even if he pitches well, he's still with the Cubs until he's traded.
This year, I'm also ranking pitchers 1-103, the number of pitchers on an inning-per-game pace that would make them eligible for the ERA title.
Top quarter overall: (Rated 2) 1. Adam Wainwright, 2. Masahiro Tanaka, 3. Johnny Cueto, 4. Jose Fernandez (injured), 5. Tim Hudson, (Rated 3) 6. Felix Hernandez, 7. Zack Greinke, 8. James Shields, 9. Yu Darvish, 10. Jesse Chavez, 11. Max Scherzer, 12. Kyle Lohse, 13. Dallas Keuchel, 14. Jason Hammel, 15. Scott Kazmir, 16. Jon Lester, 17. Julio Teheran, 18. Michael Wacha, 19. Rick Porcello, 20. Yordano Ventura. 21. Ian Kennedy, 22. Michael Leake, (Rated 4) 23. Jered Weaver, 24. Sonny Gray, 25. C.J. Wilson, 26. Tyson Ross.
No real surprises at the top until we get to ... Jesse Chavez at No. 10. He has been pitching very well for Oakland, but Chavez has spent most of his career as a reliever, and we can't really know how he'd hold up during the season's second half.
Also, props to Rick Porcello, who at the time I compared these pitchers had won seven games while walking just seven. In case you're wondering, there have been three instances in major league history of a 20-game winner with more wins than walks.
Second quartile: 27. John Lackey, 28. Alfredo Simon, 29. Marco Estrada, 30. Drew Hutchison, 31. Garrett Richards, 32. Jeff Samardzija, 33. Stephen Strasburg, 34. Jon Niese, 35. Dillon Gee, 36. Tanner Roark, 37. Tyler Skaggs, 38. Brandon McCarthy, (Rated 5, average) 39. Aaron Harang, 40. Cliff Lee, 41. Corey Kluber, 42. Phil Hughes, 43. David Price, 44. Lance Lynn, 45. Travis Wood, 46. Wily Peralta, 47. Dan Haren, 48. Alex Wood, 49. Ervin Santana, 50. Jorge DeLaRosa, 51. Jason Vargas, 52. Gerrit Cole.
Third quartile: 53. Andrew Cashner, 54. Jose Quintana, 55. Gio Gonzalez, 56. Bud Norris, 57. Chris Young, 58. Hiroki Kuroda, 59. Bartolo Colon, 60. Tom Koehler, 61. Yovani Gallardo, (Rated 6) 62. Madison Bumgarner, 63. Mark Buehrle, 64. Jordan Lyles, 65. Nathan Eovaldi, 66. Shelby Miller, 67. R.A. Dickey, 68. Edinson Volquez, 69. Roenis Elias, 70. A.J. Burnett, 71. Wei-Yin Chen, 72. Chris Archer, 73. Chris Tillman, 74. Wade Miley, 75. Jordan Zimmermann, 76. Matt Garza, 77. Francisco Liriano, 78. Ryan Vogelsong, 79. Kyle Kendrick.
Bottom quarter: 80. Jarred Cosart, (Rated 7) 81. Justin Verlander, 82. Juan Nicasio, 83. Tim Lincecum, 84. Homer Bailey, 85. Martin Perez (injured), 86. Edwin Jackson, 87. Bronson Arroyo, 88. Henderson Alvarez, 89. Charlie Morton, 90. Jeremy Guthrie, 91. Kyle Gibson, 92. Jake Peavy, 93. Roberto Hernandez, 94. Ubaldo Jimenez, 95. Ricky Nolasco, 96. Clay Buchholz, (Rated 8) 97. Justin Masterson, 98. John Danks, 99. Zach Wheeler, 100. Franklin Morales, 101. Robbie Ross, 102. Kevin Correia, 103. Eric Stults.
Keep in mind that these are the poorest among the starters who would qualify in ERA, a group that includes less than 3 1/2 starters per team. So consider that few if any fifth starters, and most fourth starters, don't even qualify for the bottom quarter. You don't want those pitchers.
Sunday, May 25, 2014
There's a reason why it's called a twin killing
In Ron Washington's pre-game media session Wednesday, he answered a question about how the Rangers could avoid hitting into so many double play.
I discarded my notes, but following is a pretty accurate paraphrase:
"Stop hitting the pitcher's pitch. Wait for your pitch. He's going to want to keep the ball down so you'll hit it on the ground. Until you get two strikes, you have to lay off those pitches and hope you can get one up."
Those words came back to mind Saturday in Texas' game at Detroit. It wasn't a Rangers batter hitting a pitcher's pitch, but 38-year-old Tigers OF Torii Hunter making what could be considered a rookie mistake.
Detroit trailed 5-1 with two runners on base and two out in the bottom of the fifth inning.
Texas rookie RHP Nick Martinez fell behind Hunter 3-0, then threw a called strike. Just as the TV announcers were saying that with Miguel Cabrera on deck. Hunter should be looking for a fastball in to swing at and leave anything else alone, Martinez threw a down and away fastball. Hunter swung anyway, and hit a harmless ground ball to shortstop for an inning-ending force out.
So instead of coming up against a scuffling rookie pitcher as the potential tying run, Cabrera was the leadoff man in the bottom of the sixth. By that time, the Tigers trailed 8-1.
The final score was 12-2. I'm not saying that Hunter's mental mistake made a 10-run difference, but the game would have played out a lot differently if it had been 5-4 going to the sixth, with Detroit into the Rangers' bullpen already and probably not sending out their own rookie (RHP Corey Knebel) for his major league debut.
An interesting sidelight was watching Knebel battle a fellow rookie, Texas 2B Rougned Odor, to a 3-2 count. Odor won the battle with a bases-loaded triple on a day when he went 4 for 5 and drove in five runs.
I've been ridiculously absent from the blog for way too long. Let's chalk that up to a week or so of the flu, then trying to catch up from that, plus a busy schedule and more than a little bit to inertia/laziness/writer's block.
The plan is to bring you more short takes such as this one when the come up.
I'm also preparing some bigger articles, starting with my third-of-the-way-through recommendations of pitchers (and probably hitters) who have hidden value you can add to your fantasy rotation (and lineup).
I discarded my notes, but following is a pretty accurate paraphrase:
"Stop hitting the pitcher's pitch. Wait for your pitch. He's going to want to keep the ball down so you'll hit it on the ground. Until you get two strikes, you have to lay off those pitches and hope you can get one up."
Those words came back to mind Saturday in Texas' game at Detroit. It wasn't a Rangers batter hitting a pitcher's pitch, but 38-year-old Tigers OF Torii Hunter making what could be considered a rookie mistake.
Detroit trailed 5-1 with two runners on base and two out in the bottom of the fifth inning.
Texas rookie RHP Nick Martinez fell behind Hunter 3-0, then threw a called strike. Just as the TV announcers were saying that with Miguel Cabrera on deck. Hunter should be looking for a fastball in to swing at and leave anything else alone, Martinez threw a down and away fastball. Hunter swung anyway, and hit a harmless ground ball to shortstop for an inning-ending force out.
So instead of coming up against a scuffling rookie pitcher as the potential tying run, Cabrera was the leadoff man in the bottom of the sixth. By that time, the Tigers trailed 8-1.
The final score was 12-2. I'm not saying that Hunter's mental mistake made a 10-run difference, but the game would have played out a lot differently if it had been 5-4 going to the sixth, with Detroit into the Rangers' bullpen already and probably not sending out their own rookie (RHP Corey Knebel) for his major league debut.
An interesting sidelight was watching Knebel battle a fellow rookie, Texas 2B Rougned Odor, to a 3-2 count. Odor won the battle with a bases-loaded triple on a day when he went 4 for 5 and drove in five runs.
I've been ridiculously absent from the blog for way too long. Let's chalk that up to a week or so of the flu, then trying to catch up from that, plus a busy schedule and more than a little bit to inertia/laziness/writer's block.
The plan is to bring you more short takes such as this one when the come up.
I'm also preparing some bigger articles, starting with my third-of-the-way-through recommendations of pitchers (and probably hitters) who have hidden value you can add to your fantasy rotation (and lineup).
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