The Arizona Fall League managers and coaches voted on a Top Prospects Team.
There's nothing wrong with that, but the concept and execution were off.
The team has two players at every position.
Here's what's wrong.
1. If you have to have players at every position, why two? Why not make a tough decision -- or at most positions, an easy decision -- and name THE one best player at each position.
2. Speaking of positions, why a DH? The two players chosen as DHs will be at least 27 next season. Those are prospects?
3. Also, why relief pitchers? It's very rare that a pitcher earmarked as a reliever in the minors becomes more than a middle reliever, if he ever makes it to the majors. The two chosen as this year's Top Prospects have just a few games above high Class A between them. It's a long way from where they are to being a real major league bullpen prospect (which most likely would be a high-minors starter lacking a pitch or stamina anyway).
4. Instead of putting players at positions, why not a Top 10, or Top 12, or whatever would be a meaningful number? That way the managers and coaches wouldn't have had a tough decision whether to include 3Bs Kris Bryant or Jake Lamb. They both clearly were among the AFL's best prospects. They wouldn't have to be included on the same list as the fifth and sixth outfielders the league's instructors had to scrounge up to fill out the team.
I saw a number of these Top Prospects in the Texas League this season, and none of them really stood out. At least, not the way former prospects such as Hunter Pence, Eric Hosmer, Jhoulys Chacin, Mat Latos, Derek Holland and Chris Davis did.
Following is a look at the players selected. I'm including information about how far they have advanced, some basic statistics and ages where relevant.
Catchers. I saw a little bit of Austin Hedges (Padres organization) for Double-A San Antonio after his promotion from high A. His combined average was .260 with 4 homers and 38 RBI so his defense must be pretty good, but I don't remember noticing anything special. Jorge Alfaro (Rangers) played between Rookie ball and high A, batting .265 with 18 homers, 61 RBI and 18 stolen bases. Most of his homers were at low A Hickory, which had hellacious HR numbers before 3B Joey Gallo and others were injured. I can't help but wonder whether Alfaro is one of the Texas prospects who has been overvalued because so many others before them have been successful. I haven't seen him, but I probably will this season and I'll let you know.
First basemen. C.J. Cron (Angels) played all season at Double-A Arkansas, finishing at .274 with 14 homers and 83 RBI. Not bad, but again nothing special there. He's the son of former major leaguer Chris Cron, currently the manager at Double-A Erie in the Tigers organization. Travis Shaw (Red Sox) is 22 (ages as of April 1, 2014) and also played in Double-A at Portland. He was a bit overmatched in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League (.221-16-50), but showed some patience and a batting eye (78 walks, 117 strikeouts). He'll need either to succeed in Triple-A or improve at the Double-A level to remain a true prospect.
Second basemen. Tommy LaStella (Braves) moved up from high A to Double-A Mississippi, where he set a hitting-streak record for the relatively new franchise. A high-contact hitter, he batted .356 with 5 homers and 45 RBI and walked more often than he struck out. Cory Spangenberg (Padres) played at the same two levels, reaching San Antonio. He batted .292 with 6 homers, 51 RBI and 36 stolen bases, but he hasn't shown enough power to be able to get away with his 112 strikeouts.
Third basemen. Kris Bryant (Cubs) played from Rookie Class to high A after being this year's No. 1 draft pick. He totaled .336 with 9 homers and 32 RBI in 128 at-bats. Jake Lamb (Diamondbacks) had similar success at the same levels with more playing time. He batted .302 with 15 homers and 52 RBI.
Shortstops. Playing between high A and Triple-A, Addison Russell (Athletics) batted .269 with 17 homers, 60 RBI and 21 stolen bases. Cristhian Adames (Rockies) batted .267, but with just 3 homers, 36 RBI and 13 steals.
Outfielders. Let's start at the top with 20-year-old Byron Buxton (Twins). In low A and high A, he batted .334 with 12 homers, 77 RBI and 55 stolen bases and is on the fast track to the majors. Stephen Piscotty (Cardinals) batted .295 with 15 homers and 59 RBI between high A and Double-A Springfield in the Texas League. Also in high A and Double-A, Tyler Naquin (Indians) batted .269 with 9 homers and 42 RBI. Mitch Haniger (Brewers) batted .264 with 11 homers and 68 RBI in low A and high A. Brian Goodwin (Nationals) batted .252 with 10 homers, 40 RBI and 19 stolen bases. Somehow, 25-year-old Jared Mitchell (White Sox) was invited to the AFL after a season in Double-A and Triple-A when he batted .167 with 5 homers, 23 RBI and 123 strikeouts in 300 at-bats. Despite some success in Arizona, I don't see how he could be a prospect.
Designated hitters. Cuban Henry Urrutia (Orioles) made it to the majors after beginning his season in Double-A. He batted .347 with 9 homers and 50 RBI in the minors, and .276 with 2 RBI in 24 games for Baltimore. Japhet Amador (Astros) played most of the season in the Triple-A Mexican League before Houston purchased his contract and sent him to Triple-A Oklahoma City. He totaled .361 with 36 homers and 123 RBI, including 2 RBI in 10 Pacific Coast League games. Both are 27, and not major prospects, though they could be DHing in the majors in 2014.
Starting pitchers. Alex Meyer (Twins) was 4-3 with a 2.59 ERA, .227 opponents' average and better than 3 strikeouts for every walk between Rookie ball and Double-A. Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays) was 4-5 with a 3.34 ERA and .202 opponents' average but less than a 2:1 K/W ratio.
Relief pitchers. In high A and Double-A, Nick Wittgren (Marlins) was 2-1 with an 0.77 ERA, 26 saves, a .198 opponents' average and a K/W ratio better than 6:1. Derek Law (Giants) was 5-3 with a 2.33 ERA, 14 saves, a .206 opponent's average and a K/W ratio above 9:1 between Rookie and high A ball. These two are worth following, but it's difficult to project them into major league stars.
From this group, I'll endorse an elite group of prospects, and a second-tier level of possible future stars.
The elite: Bryan Buxton, Kris Bryant, Alex Meyer and Tommy LaStella.
Second level: Jake Lamb, Stephen Piscotty, Jorge Alfaro, C.J. Cron.
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