The Monday morning updates review what happened over the weekend and indicates which batters and pitchers are hot – and which are not.
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Hot
The weekly Hot and Not for batters is based on 20 at-bats for batting average, and at least a .280 BA for the other categories.
Pos. Player, Team H-AB BA HR-RBI SB
2B/3B Martin Prado, Braves 13-24 .542 0-1 0
2B Edgar Renteria, Giants 11-21 .524 1-5 0
1B/3B Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 12-23 .522 2-8 0
OF Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers 12-24 .500 1-3 0
2B/3B Placido Polanco, Phillies 13-27 .481 1-8 0
OF Jeff Francoeur, Mets 10-21 .476 2-6 0
OF Magglio Ordonez, Tigers 12-26 .462 2-6 0
OF Nelson Cruz, Rangers 9-20 .450 4-9 0
OF Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners 12-27 .444 0-2 2
3B/OF Chase Headley, Padres 11-25 .440 0-1 1
Prado is a repeater from the list of who was Hot during spring training. He is for real.
Encouraging for their teams are some young players who could be on the way to realizing their potential – Francoeur, Cruz, Gutierrez and Headley. Francoeur and Cruz have to prove they now are laying off bad pitches and aren’t just on a hot streak. Cruz had a couple of hits, including an opposite-field home run up in the Rangers Ballpark jet stream, on tough pitches away that he fought off.
Home runs – Cruz, Blue Jays SS Alex Gonzalez and OF Vernon Wells, and Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols 4; Braves RF Jason Heyward, Cardinals LF Matt Holliday, Phillies 1B Ryan Howard, Diamondbacks 2B Kelly Johnson and OF Chris B. Young, White Sox 1B Paul Konerko and Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia 3.
RBI – Young 11; Howard, Pujols and Marlins 1B/3B Jorge Cantu 10; Cruz 9; Cabrera, Heyward and Polanco 8; Konerko, Pedroia, Wells, Athletics 1B Daric Barton, Dodgers OF Matt Kemp and Nationals LF Josh Willingham 7.
Here are more young players who could break out – Heyward, Barton and Kemp.
Stolen bases – Athletics OF Rajai Davis and Royals OF Scott Podsednik 4; Dodgers SS Rafael Furcal and Yankees OFs Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson 3; Gutierrez, Rays SS Jason Bartlett, Pirates SS Ronny Cedeno, Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury, Tigers OF Austin Jackson, Yankees SS Derek Jeter and Phillies SS Jimmy Rollins.
Are the Yankees going to be a running team, or were their numbers merely helped by playing against the Red Sox? Will Gardner and Granderson push themselves to new heights on the bases? One week isn’t long enough to know for sure, but we’ll monitor the situation.
Runs – Holliday, Polanco, Rollins and Athletics 2B Mark Ellis 8; Davis, Pujols, Wells, Twins 1B Justin Morneau and White Sox OF Carlos Quentin 7.
Additional repeat Hot players from the spring training report are Cruz and Headley. Francoeur and Howard were on the exhibition-game Not list.
Requirements for pitchers to make these lists are 7 innings pitched for ERA and WHIP, 10 strikeouts in K:W ratio and an ERA under 4.00 for the other categories.
Hand Pitcher, Team IP W-L ERA WHIP K:W
RHP Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers 8.0 1-0 0.00 0.75 7:1
RHP Luke Hochevar, Royals 7.2 0-0 0.00 0.78 2:1
LHP Dana Eveland, Blue Jays 7.1 1-0 0.00 0.95 2:2
LHP Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies 7.0 1-0 0.00 0.29 9:1
LHP C.J. Wilson, Rangers 7.0 0-0 0.00 1.00 9:2
RHP Livan Hernandez, Nats 7.0 1-0 0.00 1.14 1:3
RHP Roy Halladay, Phillies 16.0 2-0 0.56 0.94 17:2
RHP Matt Garza, Rays 8.0 1-0 1.13 0.75 9:2
RHP Bronson Arroyo, Reds 8.0 0-0 1.13 0.88 6:3
RHP Tim Lincecum, Giants 14.0 2-0 1.29 0.71 17:1
You probably already suspected that Halladay and Lincecum are good. De La Rosa was the star of our “Pitchers to seek” Article last season, and looks even better this year. Since we named him a “Pitcher to avoid” in 2009, Arroyo seemingly has been on a mission to prove us wrong. Beware the K:W radios for Hochevar, Eveland and Hernandez.
Also with 1.29 ERAs, but in just 7 innings pitched, were Rangers RHP Colby Lewis, Twins RHP Carl Pavano, White Sox RHP Jake Peavy and Blue Jays LHP Ricky Romero. A strategy with Romero might be to trade him at the All-Star break while his value is high, and avoid the possibility of his slumping during the season’s second half as he did last year.
Wins – Blue Jays RHP Casey Janssen 3; Halladay, Lincecum, Giants LHP Jeremy Affeldt, White Sox LHP Mark Buehrle, Pirates LHP Zach Duke and Rockies RHP Ubaldo Jimenez 2.
Saves – Twins RHP Jon Rauch 4-for-4; Nationals RHP Matt Capps 3-3; Mariners RHP David Aardsma, Padres RHP Heath Bell, Reds RHP Francisco Cordero, Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gregg, Cubs RHP Carlos Marmol, Rockies LHP Franklin Morales, Yankees RHP Mariano Rivera and Giants RHP Brian Wilson 2-2.
The word is that Capps has rediscovered the fastball that might have dwindled away while he was waiting for save opportunities with the Pirates away.
WHIP – De La Rosa 0.29; Braves RHP Tim Hudson 0.43; Lincecum and Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright 0.71; Garza and Kuroda 0.75; Hochevar 0.78; Athletics LHP Dallas Braden and Yankees LHP C.C. Sabathia 0.85; Pavano 0.86.
K:W ratio – Lincecum 17:1; Orioles RHP Kevin Millwood 11:1; Halladay 17:2; Diamondbacks RHP Dan Haren 13:2; Braden 12:2; Blue Jays RHP Shaun Marcum 11:2; Angels RHP Jered Weaver 13:3; Jimenez 13:4; Astros RHP Roy Oswalt 11:4.
Pitchers repeating their strong spring-training performances were De La Rosa, Eveland, Affeldt, Brian Wilson and Hudson. Arroyo, Buehrle and Aardsma were on the exhibition Not list.
Not
Pos. Player, Team H-AB BA HR-RBI SB
CF Julio Borbon, Rangers 1-21 .048 0-2 0
OF Milton Bradley, Mariners 1-21 .048 1-2 0
1B Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays 2-23 .087 0-1 0
RF Hunter Pence, Astros 2-21 .095 1-2 0
2B/SS David Eckstein, Padres 2-20 .100 0-0 0
OF Melky Cabrera, Braves 3-25 .120 0-0 0
OF Juan Pierre, White Sox 3-24 .125 0-0 2
1B Mark Teixeira, Yankees 3-25 .125 0-3 0
LF Carlos Lee, Astros 3-23 .130 0-0 0
SS Alexei Ramirez, White Sox 3-23 .130 1-3 0
This week’s dis(honorable mention) goes to Brewers C Gregg Zaun 0-for-14, and Mariners C Adam Moore and Rangers C Taylor Teagarden 0-for-12. Teagarden also had seven strikeouts.
Angels 3B Brandon Wood just missed the lists, going 1-for-19, Unless he can show he’s the player who racked up huge home run totals in the minors, LA/Anaheim will have to find a replacement quickly.
Here are a couple of outfielders you should expect to see in Triple-A before long: Borbon and the Blue Jays’ Travis Snider.
W:K ratio – This one requires 10 strikeouts. Surprisingly, no major league batter reached double figures in Ks during the season’s first week. The worst ratio belonged to Padres SS Everth Cabrera at 0:9.
Caught stealing – Miguel Cabrera and Rockies OF Carlos Gonzalez 0-for-2; Indians SS Asdrubal Cabrera and Mariners RF Ichiro Suzuki 1-3.
Repeaters from the spring-training Not list are Borbon and Teagarden. Pence was on the Hot list from the exhibition games; we’re still confident that he’ll have a good year.
Hand Pitcher, Team IP W-L ERA WHIP K:W
RHP Carlos Zambrano, Cubs 8.1 1-1 11.88 1.92 10:4
RHP Vicente Padilla, Dodgers 8.2 0-1 11.42 2.08 8:4
RHP Justin Verlander, Tigers 10.0 0-0 9.00 1.50 9:4
LHP John Lannan, Nationals 8.2 1-1 8.31 2.19 2:6
RHP Jake Westbrook, Indians 9.2 0-1 7.45 2.17 8:7
RHP Yovani Gallardo, Brewers 12.0 0-2 6.75 1.33 10:4
RHP Josh Johnson, Marlins 10.0 0-1 6.30 2.00 10:7
RHP Josh Beckett, Red Sox 11.2 1-0 6.17 1.80 5:4
RHP Chris Carpenter, Cards 11.0 1-0 5.73 1.27 7:2
The pitchers eligible for this list all started twice during the week. Some of baseball’s best pitchers appear here: Verlander, Gallardo, Johnson, Beckett, Carpenter. It’s too early to panic, but keep an eye on them – especially on their K:W ratios, which could show that they no longer can blow batters away or that they might be hurt. Beckett and Gallardo could have lost some fire after signing big contracts.
Losses – Gallardo, Rangers RHP Frank Francisco, Padres RHP Jon Garland, Orioles LHP Mike Gonzalez, Cubs LHP John Grabow, Astros RHP Roy Oswalt and Angels LHP Joe Saunders 2.
Blown saves – Francisco and Red Sox RHP Daniel Bard 0-for-2; Gonzalez 1-3; Brewers RHP Trevor Hoffman 2-4.
Returning to the Not list, where they also resided from spring training, are Verlander and Gonzalez.
News and Notes
Ellsbury left Boston’s game Sunday after a collision with 3B Adrian Beltre while chasing a foul popup. Beltre’s knee hit Ellsbury’s rib cage. X rays were negative, and the left fielder is considered day to day.
I like Joe Maddon as the Rays’ manager, but he made a couple of moves Sunday that didn’t make sense to me. In the first inning, after the first two Rays had hits against Yankees RHP A.J. Burnett, No. 3 batter Ben Zobrist bunted a runner from second base to third. Maddon excused the action of giving up an out that settled down a struggling pitcher by saying that Zobrist didn’t feel comfortable against Burnett. Then why was the right fielder batting third in the lineup? If he is the next time he faces A.J., I’ll really be disappointed in Maddon. The other move came late, when Tampa Bay still was stuck on the two runs it had scored in the first inning. With switch-hitting C Jorge Posada coming to bat, the manager replaced the starter, RHP James Shields, with sidearm LHP Randy Choate. Now Choate may have retired a right-handed batter during his undistinguished career, but I don’t remember when. He threw a pitch to Posada that the catcher hit for a home run. Weren’t the odds better that Shields at least would have kept the ball in the park?
I didn’t see Mariners RHP Felix Hernandez in person, but on TV he appeared to be in good shape and not carrying extra weight. His physical conditioning seems to be the only thing that could keep King Felix from being successful. Hernandez does have a big, new contract, but we expect that his team’s lack of offense will be a bigger problem for him than a potential big head.
To give you an idea, our pitching chart for the regular season’s first week had the right pitcher on the right date in 87 per cent of the games (160 of 184). The American League record was 95 per cent (84-for-88) but the National League projections hit on 79 per cent (76-for-96). We had the right pitchers in the right number of starts closer to 95 per cent, but some teams switched the order of those starters from what we had projected. Those switches each resulted in two – and in one case three – games that weren’t matched with the right pitcher.
Minor matters
The bloodletting continued Friday in the Triple-A International League series between Columbus (Indians organization) and Indianapolis (Pirates). Indy won 14-12, with Pedro Alvarez hitting two homers to bring his total to three in two games. Clippers C Carlos Santana hit one homer, also for a total of three after he’d hit two in Columbus’ 17-4 Opening Day win over Indianapolis, so he also had three dingers in two games.
On Sunday, Reds LHP prospect Aroldis Chapman made his U.S. pro debut with eight strikeouts for Triple-A Louisville at Toledo (Tigers), and Nationals RHP prospect Stephen Strasburg gave up four runs (one earned) in five innings for Double-A Harrisburg at Altoona (Pirates).
In closing
This is a regular feature of our Emails and blog posts. It lets you know who’s getting saves. Equally important is telling you who’s blowing saves or putting his job in jeopardy by getting shaky saves. There’s also a FREE Article on the old fantasybaseballscout.com web site letting you know which pitcher or pitchers each team is using to close games. It will be updated whenever there’s a change or speculation about a change in a team’s closer.
Indians RHP Chris Perez blew a save Sunday as the Tigers scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning for a 9-8 victory. Hoffman also blew a save by allowing the Cardinals to score three times in the top of the ninth on back-to-back two-out homers by Pujols and LF Matt Holliday. Pujols’ was a two-run shot. Hoffman became the winning pitcher when Brewers 3B/2B Casey McGehee homered in the bottom of the inning against St. Louis RHP Kyle McClellan.
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