This began as the usual 1-2 paragraph preamble to the weekly Pitching Chart, explaining any particular variations from the norm expected during that coming week.
As you can see, this week's explanation expanded to the point that it's almost as long as the chart itself, which will be coming your way in a few hours.
The season’s final week is a time for experimentation. Twenty or so teams have been or will be eliminated from playoff contention, so those would be resting veterans who don’t have a secondary goal such as a 20th (or maybe 15th) win or 200 strikeouts. Some teams will shut down rookies who have shown what they need to show for the team to go into the off-season penciling them in or out of the 2010 rotation. Pitchers with any injury from a torn rotator cuff to a hangnail will be shut down in favor of 28-year-old number three starters from the Triple-A farm team.
Then there are the Yankees, who already have clinched the American League East title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their only goal for the four (or possibly three) pitchers who would start in the Division Series would be to line them up with the accustomed four days’ rest for their first postseason outing.
Other teams, such as the Red Sox and Angels would go into a similar mode as soon as they clinch their postseason position, which could be as early as Monday. And the losers in the playoff derby, such as the Rangers, would go into a play-it-safe mode as soon as they were eliminated. That would mean that the rookie starting a final-week game for Texas could be RHP Guillermo Moscoso instead of LHP Derek Holland.
Finally, there are a few teams in a legitimate race to get into the postseason or a more favorable playoff matchup. Fitting that description are the Tigers, Twins, Rockies and Braves. If the uncertainty extended until Sunday, they’d play that game as if it were the seventh game of the World Series. Just be glad the Cardinals aren’t in that position, or Tony LaRussa could drag the game out long enough to delay the National League playoffs by a week or so.
Your pitching goal for this week should be to protect yourself from losing pitching points and to determine other categories in which you could gamble to gain multiple pitching points if necessary. Here’s some information from an Email I sent to a fantasybaseballlscout.com subscriber:
It all depends on what you have, what you need.
If you need wins and could gain more than a point with enough wins, you'd need to stock up on pitchers who MIGHT start twice and hope that they do.
If you need saves and could gain a point or more with those, you'd need to use as many GOOD relief pitchers (preferably closers or secondary closers), you'd need to stock up on those.
If you need to protect ERA and wouldn't lose more than a point in wins, you'd need to use every GOOD reliever, or reliever who might not pitch at all as possible.
If you could gain more than a point in WHIP and wouldn't lose more in Wins than you'd gain in WHIP, you'd want GOOD relievers and want them to pitch significant innings -- unless you're trying to protect WHIP, in which case you'd want a few quality innings from GOOD relievers and maybe a pitcher or two who wouldn't pitch.
If you're in a 5x5 league and could pick up more than a point in Ks, you'd want to throw out as many strikeout pitchers as you could. Any of those who MIGHT make two starts would be musts.
General rule. GOOD relief pitchers could help you more than even good starters in three categories -- saves for sure, ERA almost certainly and WHIP if they are average or above-average control pitchers (figure < or = 3 walks per 9 innings).
General rule: Good (#1-3 in most rotations) starters could help you more in Wins and SO than relief pitchers would.
In some leagues, your choices might be dictated by rules that state minimum or maximum innings for the season. If you need to get over the minimum, you'd need starters pitching. If you need to stay under the maximum, you'd need relievers or inactive pitchers.
Absolute rule: You don't want bad pitchers (4-5 starters in most rotations, #3 starters on most bad teams, crappy relief pitchers with no chance for saves) starting for you even once. One guy giving up 4 ER in an inning could mean 2-3 hundredths lost in ERA and WHIP.
No comments:
Post a Comment