Wednesday, January 28, 2009

No sweat vs. lots of sweat

The No Sweat Dept:

Baseball transactions made today should benefit Jon Garland and Garret Olson.

Free-agent Garland signed a one-year contract with the Diamondbacks that includes a team option for 2010.

I think Garland will be a better pitcher in the National League than he has been in the American.

He's reliable. He has made 32 or 33 starts in each of the last seven years.

He's not overpowering. That's why Garland has struggled at times. For four of those seasons, he has finished a total of three games under .500. He's also a smart enough pitcher to benefit from facing other pitchers in the National League, and not having to exert too much effort.

History is on his side. In the other three seasons, Garland has been a combined 25 games OVER .500. Those three years happened to be three of the last four, including 2008.

He's a young veteran. Even with all that experience, Garland won't turn 30 until the final week of the regular season.

He has incentive. The one-year contract will keep him from coasting, and unless he comes to hate pitching in the desert he'll want to do well so Arizona will exercise its option and keep him next season.

The Mariners seem convinced that Olson is a better option as their fifth starter than Aaron Heilman would be. Seattle sent Heilman to the Cubs for two players, 2B/SS Ronny Cedeno and lefthander Olson.

Why would that be? Olson's two-year major league ERA is 6.87; Heilman's is 4.24 for six years.

However, Olson is five years younger (25 to 30). The Mariners have seen him pitch in the AL, apparently well enough to make them want him. They traded for him just days after the Cubs had acquired him from Baltimore.

Olson has won a consistent 10 games in each of his last three seasons in the minors and majors. He's 10-13 as a major leaguer, all as a starter and all with a bad team.

Heilman has not proven himself in opportunities to become a starter or a closer with the Mets. He has had some success as a setup man, with a team that has been good at least until the leaves begin to change colors. But he's coming off his worst season since he moved to the bullpen in 2005 -- 3-8, 5.21 ERA, five blown saves in eight chances, 10 homers allowed.

Heilman will get a chance to start for the Cubs, and could also move into a position to save some games.

It says here that today's trade greatly benefits the Mariners. Even if Olson and Heilman are a wash, Cedeno will immediately improve their defense in a reserve role.

You can read more of my baseball analysis at fantasybaseballscout.com.

Now for the sweaty part.

Watching tonight's Australian Open semifinal in 110-degree heat between Serena Williams and Elena Dimentieva reminded me of the time I wrote an opinion piece for a daily newspaper where I worked.

My point was that there was (still is, by the way) a lot of sex appeal in women's tennis.

The sports editor wrote me back a note saying, "There's nothing sexy about tennis unless you like your women sweaty."

Well, Serena and Dimentieva aren't even my favorite players, but boy did they work up a sweat. Williams' dress was so soaked in sweat that if she'd had to go to a third set the enitre thing would have been a darker color. Elena's dress didn't show the sweat as much, but her shoulders and arms were covered in perspiration.

For my money, that sports editor missed the point entirely, which wasn't uncommon for him. The players can be both hot and sweaty.

Following up on last night's posts, Caracas defeated Aragua 3-2 to take a similar 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven Venezuela Winter League finals. The series moves back to Caracas for a 7 p.m. EST game Thursday.

The big hit for los Leones was a two-run homer by Alex Cabrera, who last played in the majors for the 2000 Diamondbacks, giving them a 3-0 lead. Caracas withstood a two-run homer by the aforementioned Ronny Cedeno to win the game after RHP Jose Ascanio struck out the side in the ninth inning.

That was Ascanio's 11th postseason save. He won't get the first shot at being Chicago's closer this season, but don't be surprised when he gets a chance if Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol can't do the job.

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